The Premonitions Bureau

31 Jul 2026 · 49 min · 25 chapters

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In short

Episode topic: The “Premonitions Bureau” project, sparked by the Aberfan coal-tip disaster (Oct 21, 1966), and the idea that fear/visions might sometimes predict catastrophes—plus later “hits” like a Cyprus plane crash and a train derailment.

Guest backgrounds

No recurring guests appear; the episode centers on psychiatrist John Barker (Cambridge-educated, worked in a large mental hospital; researched fear/death and “voodoo death”/nocebo-like effects) and two premonition submitters: Lorna Middleton (London dance/music teacher; WWII-era visions; émigré from Boston) and Alan Hensher (London international switchboard operator; head injury; recurring premonitions with migraines).

Key claims

Barker theorizes a “pre-disaster syndrome” and fears can produce physiological effects; the Bureau collected dreams/visions via the Evening Standard to avoid hindsight bias; some premonitions “matched” real events.

Notable examples

Aberfan (144 dead, 116 children); Hensher’s plane-crash vision preceding the Cyprus crash (124 died); Middleton’s astronaut sketch preceding Vladimir Komarov’s fatal reentry; Charing Cross train derailment (49 dead) tied to their “Charing Cross” premonition.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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The Ominous Warnings Before Disaster

0:00 to 0:18

Exploring the premonitions of various individuals before a tragedy.

“Support for Criminal comes from Sixpenny.”

The Ominous Warnings Before Disaster

1:01 to 2:12

Exploring the premonitions of various individuals before a tragedy.

“In the early morning of October 21st, 1966, a 52-year-old dance teacher in London named Lorna Middleton suddenly woke up from her sleep.”

Life in Aberfan During the 1960s

2:12 to 3:19

Description of Aberfan as a mining village and its community.

“I couldn't pinpoint the place of occurrence.”

Coal Waste and Its Instability

3:19 to 4:38

Understanding the coal waste piles and their dangerous instability.

“It was a place defined by the colliery and the activity of taking the coal out of the ground.”

The Avalanche of Coal Slurry

4:38 to 6:04

Details of the avalanche that struck Aberfan and its devastating impact.

“That morning, the men noticed something unusual.”

Immediate Aftermath and Community Response

6:04 to 8:52

The community's efforts to rescue survivors and the aftermath of the tragedy.

“and these tailings that I described, and it kind of thundered down the mountain.”

Public Response and Outrage

8:52 to 10:10

Discussion of the public response and outrage over the disaster's preventability.

“Letters were written out in chalk, F, M, or J, indicating whether the dead were female, male, or juvenile.”

John Barker's Interest in Premonitions

10:10 to 13:12

Introduction to John Barker and his investigation into premonitions related to the disaster.

“Were people talking about how this could have been avoided?”

Stories of Premonitions from Aberfan

13:12 to 14:00

Barker's exploration of the premonitions shared by children before the disaster.

“No, he didn't find the boy because it was wrong.”

The Aberfan Disaster and Premonitions

14:00 to 19:06

Learn about the tragic Aberfan disaster and the premonitions reported by children and adults before it occurred.

“There was hardly anybody I encountered who had not lost someone.”
Show all 25 chapters

Lorna Middleton's Life and Premonitions

19:22 to 22:00

Explore Lorna Middleton's background, her visions, and her experiences related to premonitions.

“So Lorna Middleton was a music teacher and a dance teacher who practiced in London during the Second World War and for the decades afterwards.”

Alan Hensher's Experience with Visions

22:00 to 24:44

Understand Alan Hensher's premonitions and how they impacted his life and work.

“He'd been at work when he had his premonition about Aberfan.”

John Barker's Research into Premonitions

24:44 to 28:00

Learn about John Barker's studies on premonitions and their psychological implications following the Aberfan disaster.

“And in that context, telepathy, seeing things before they happen, it's just not the craziest thing he's heard that day.”

The Premonitions Bureau Begins

28:00 to 29:09

Learn about the inception and initial challenges of the Premonitions Bureau.

“Then, right around when the disaster took place, the woman jumped from her chair and said something bad had happened.”

Gathering Premonitions

29:10 to 30:27

Discover how premonitions were collected and organized by the Bureau.

“So he suggested that they take a different approach.”

Cultural Context and Support

30:28 to 33:06

Explore the cultural acceptance of premonitions and the support from the Evening Standard.

“And then she would also look at the newspapers and the wires coming in from around the world and kind of see whether any of these premonitions were sort of, were coming true.”

A Significant Plane Crash Vision

33:07 to 35:28

Listen to the story of a premonition that eerily predicted a tragic plane crash.

“If a disaster was averted and never happened, how could people have premonitions of it?”

A Significant Plane Crash Vision

35:36 to 36:41

Listen to the story of a premonition that eerily predicted a tragic plane crash.

“There's nothing like a good pair of thoughtfully made socks.”

The Psychological Impact of Premonitions

37:58 to 41:24

Understand the psychological theories surrounding the concept of premonitions.

“It is trying to develop a thesis first formulated by Walter Cannon, who was the dean of Harvard Medical School in the 1940s, about so-called kind of voodoo death, you know, voodoo curses.”

Train Crash Premonitions

41:25 to 42:03

Examine instances of train crash premonitions and their tragic outcomes.

“One person said it was just a series of haphazard guesses.”

Premonitions of Tragedy

42:03 to 43:12

Learn about Alan Henshaw and Lorna Middleton's premonitions that predicted a deadly train crash.

“On October 11, 1967, Alan Henshaw told them he'd had a premonition about a train crash.”

The Premonitions Bureau's Findings

43:12 to 44:16

Discover the results of the Premonitions Bureau's one-year experiment on premonitions.

“And then the Premonitions Bureau reached its one-year mark.”

John Barker's Dire Warnings

44:16 to 45:22

Explore how John Barker received ominous warnings from Alan Henshaw about his safety.

“The rest of his family were downstairs when they suddenly heard him on the bedroom floor upstairs.”

The Unsettling Effect of Predictions

45:22 to 46:18

Understand the psychological impact of premonitions on John Barker and his reactions.

“Quote, I find it a little difficult to get off to sleep again and have, of course, decided to take extra care while driving.”

The Fate of the Premonitions Bureau

46:18 to 48:09

Analyze the eventual decline of the Premonitions Bureau and its legacy.

“It's sort of where the experiment starts to break down between the experimenter and the subject.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Phoebe Judge:Support for Criminal comes from Sixpenny. Sixpenny makes furniture that's made by hand, ready for order, using natural or recycled fabrics that can be changed and cleaned as your life evolves. Architectural Digest has even said their best-selling Neva Collection is so comfy it doesn't feel real. Visit sixpenny.com slash criminal for 10 % off your first purchase, or order yourself a set of free fabric swatches from their catalog of all-natural and recycled materials. That's sixpenny.com slash criminal.

0:36Life is full of inevitable, unpleasant experiences. But thanks to modern medicine, perimenopause doesn't have to be one of them. There is still this idea that we have to suffer through it. And I am here to say to anyone listening that suffering not only is unnecessary, there's no metal at the end, but it will derail your health. This week on Explain It To Me, how to navigate the change before the change. Find new episodes Sundays wherever you get your podcasts.

1:08In the early morning of October 21st, 1966, a 52-year-old dance teacher in London named Lorna Middleton suddenly woke up from her sleep. It was around 6 a.m. She described waking up and experiencing a choking sensation and felt like she couldn't breathe. A kind of physical sensation in her throat and struggling to breathe. Writer Sam Knight. Lorna Middleton had a tenant staying with her. He made her a cup of tea that morning and she told him about what had happened. She said she had an ominous feeling. Hours earlier, a man named Alan Hensher was at work at a telephone switchboard in London when he said he suddenly began to tremble all over and had a feeling something bad was about to happen.

2:07He later wrote, it just hit me without warning. I did mention to a lady sitting next to me that a big disaster was taking place in this country, which could cost many lives. I couldn't pinpoint the place of occurrence. Around the same time, a 10-year-old girl who lived in a small village in South Wales called Aberfan reportedly told her mother that she'd had a bad dream. She'd dreamt that she was on her way to school, but the school in Aberfan was gone. It was covered in something black. Tell me about the village of Aberfan.

2:50Phoebe Judge:What was the village like in the 1960s? So Aberfan was built pretty rapidly during the second half of the 19th century to be a mining village. Were most of the people living there in the 60s somehow touching the coal industry? You knew someone who was working in the mines or you were supporting those who worked in the mines. 100%. It was a place defined by the colliery and the activity of taking the coal out of the ground. On the morning of October 21st, a group of men were working on a pile of coal waste on a mountain just outside the village. There were several huge piles, like this one, on the mountain that had been created from waste brought out of the mines.

3:42You would mine the coal, take the good coal, and then there would be the debris, the waste from that, And also particularly something called tailings, which is the coal which is too fine, the kind of powdery stuff that's sort of too fine to use or to sort of sell or to kind of package up in a useful form. and then that would be hoisted onto a kind of tramway. Can you imagine something a bit like a ski lift sort of hauling cartload after cartload after cartload up the hill where it would kind of reach the top where there would be a small gang of men, six guys, and then they would kind of unhook the topmost cart and tip it onto the waste pile.

4:30And these heaps would grow and grow on the hillside until they would become unstable. And then the coal plant would shift the tramways to another part of the hillside and make a new one. That morning, the men noticed something unusual. It'd been raining for weeks, and the men working on the tip had noticed it shifting and starting to shift down the hillside. You could sort of take a reading off a tree or a fence post. There was a particular dead tree that the men kind of kept an eye on, and they could see that the pile was beginning to shift. And that kind of wasn't unusual in itself. It was kind of normally a sign that it's like, okay, you know, we've put enough here, time to kind of move on and make a new one.

5:21But the rain had been intense. And that morning, the group of men in charge of the heap noticed it had sunk 10 feet down the hillside in the night, and they were unhappy about the state of it. The men had a shack on the mountain and a telephone, and so they tried to make a call to let people know that the pile had been shifting more than normal. But that morning, the phone didn't work. And so one of the guys was sent down the hill to kind of raise the news that the pile was unsteady. And while he was gone, it suddenly slipped. It was an avalanche, effectively, of kind of fine, wet, powdery slurry and muck and these tailings that I described, and it kind of thundered down the mountain.

6:14The men couldn't see the village below them. They just saw the coal pile disappear in a black cloud. The men started running down the hillside shouting, trying to warn people about the collapsing heap. It kind of came thundering down and people in the village compared it to the sound of a low-flying jet. The avalanche buried sheep, cattle, and a farmhouse with three people still inside it as it crashed down the mountain. A 14-year-old boy watched as it came towards the village and said it was, quote, moving fast, as fast as a car goes into town. It traveled in the direction of Abervan's outermost street Near the mountainside, Moy Road There were two schools there There was the primary school and the secondary school And it's sort of the main force of the tip Struck the primary school and a few houses next to it And it just came down just as the kids were finishing off school prayers For the last day of term before the half-term break and they were suddenly buried.

7:27A man described seeing doors and windows of buildings crashing in. Then he was pinned under a piece of iron. And then, he said, everything became quiet. When it was all over, miners and villagers gathered in the street and began digging through the debris for survivors. 144 people died, 116 children. Most of the children were between 7 and 10. About an hour later, the BBC shared news of the disaster, and people started traveling to Aberfan to help. Sam Knight writes that somewhere between 1 and 2 ,000 people volunteered to help dig for survivors. People showed up at a nearby hospital and offered to give blood.

8:15So within hours, the village is besieged by well-meaning offers of help, which become overwhelming. So you've got ambulances, you've got industrial machinery, you've got miners coming off their shifts desperate to help, you've got earth-moving equipment, you've got this just kind of outpouring of a desire to help, even though it's impossible to help. You know, no one was pulled alive after 11 o 'clock in the morning. As bodies were dug out of the debris, they were brought to a local chapel and placed on the pews. Letters were written out in chalk, F, M, or J, indicating whether the dead were female, male, or juvenile.

9:06Sam writes that a line of parents waited outside to identify their children. The next morning was overcast. One journalist wrote, There was a grayness everywhere. Faces from the tiredness and anguish. Houses and roads from the oozing slurry of the tips. Trucks pulled into the village with donations. Tinned meat, chewing gum, soup, and bottles of brandy. Sam Knight writes that the Red Cross handed out 10 ,000 cigarettes. And an animal welfare organization went door to door and asked if anyone needed help with their pets. The scale of the tragedy, the fact that so many children were involved, the fact that on some level this was foreseen in the sense that the practice of piling waste like this was just so obviously reckless, all of those things kind of combined immediately to make it a singular tragedy in the British imagination.

10:15Phoebe Judge:Were people talking about how this could have been avoided? Immediately you've got anger against the National Coal Board, which is the nationalized organization sort of in charge of the British coal industry, because this was obviously dangerous, this was obviously reckless. You've got a kind of a class dimension. in terms of this is a village for workers and their families, and they're the ones who've been hit by this thing. So yeah, immediately this is a kind of, you know, questions are being asked at just a very kind of rational sort of engineering level. Years before the disaster, Abervans Town Council had contacted the National Coal Board because they were concerned about the waste piles on the mountain.

11:04The piles had slid before, although never this badly. But the coal board hadn't made any real changes to stabilize the piles or make sure they couldn't slide. Later, a tribunal concluded that the disaster was, quote, a terrifying tale of bungling ineptitude and a total lack of direction from above, and that, quote, the Aberfan disaster could and should have been prevented. The morning after the disaster, while rescue workers were still digging bodies out of the debris, a man named John Barker drove into Aberfan. John Barker was a psychiatrist, and he was a doctor at a large mental hospital that's about 100 miles from Aberfan.

11:55And Barker was a, on the one hand, a mid-20th century British intellectual. You know, he was very well educated, he'd been to Cambridge, and he published articles on a variety of research subjects in The Lancet, the American Journal of Medicine. He was ambitious, he wanted to make a name for himself. And on the other hand, he dabbled in what we would call the occult. You know, he was someone who'd been interested in ghosts his whole life. He was interested in visions and prophecy and premonitions. John Barker was collecting case studies for a book he was writing. So for a few years, he'd been studying cases of people who had been, in inverted commas, scared to death.

12:44So he came to Aberfan because he was interested in fear and the effect of fear on the human body. And in the early kind of confused reporting from Aberfan, there was a report of a boy who escaped from the school, but later died from shock or from fear. And that was the kind of thing to prick the attention of Dr. Barker. And he came rushing to Aberfan the next day to try and find this boy and what had happened to him.

13:11Phoebe Judge:Did he find the boy when he got there? No, he didn't find the boy because it was wrong. There hadn't been a boy of that description. And he sort of describes it afterwards, you know, arriving in the village and suddenly feeling out of place. suddenly aware that he's trespassing in a place that is full of onlookers and full of people coming there, obviously with kind of good feeling in their heart, but also an edge of sort of voyeurism or just wanting to see something as appalling as this. John Barker wrote, The experience sickened me. Parents who had lost their children were standing in the street looking stunned and hopeless, and many were still weeping.

14:01There was hardly anybody I encountered who had not lost someone. Sam Knight writes that the experience reminded Barker of the World War II bombing of London, which he had lived through as a teenager. He started talking to people in town about what had happened and what they had experienced. and then he heard the story of the 10-year-old girl in Aberfan who, the day before the disaster, dreamt her school was gone. The girl had told her mother, quote, I dreamed I went to school and there was no school there. Something black had come down all over it. The next day, the girl died in the disaster. Later, John Barker heard another story about an 8-year-old boy who also died in the accident.

14:52The night before, he'd made a drawing of people digging in the hillside. Above it, he'd written, The End. And then, John Barker had an idea. He thought maybe people outside of Aberfan had had premonitions of the disaster too. And he called a journalist friend of his at the Evening Standard, which was a kind of big London newspaper. He called the science correspondent there, a man called Peter Fairley, and asked him to publish an article requesting other dreams or premonitions or visions of Aberfan. And that was published just a week after the disaster in the Evening Standard. The article read, Did anyone have a genuine premonition before the coal tip fell on Aberfan?

15:47That is what a senior British psychiatrist would like to know. John Barker heard from 76 people. He wrote them back and asked for witnesses who could confirm that they had mentioned having premonitions before the disaster happened. Out of the 76 people John Barker heard from, he thought 22 seemed credible. And there were seven people who he found especially interesting, people who often had premonitions, sometimes with physical symptoms. The group of seven included Lorna Middleton, the dance teacher in London who woke up on the morning of the disaster with a choking sensation and a sense of foreboding, and Alan Henscher, the switchboard operator who'd started trembling while he was at work the day before and had told his co-worker that something terrible was about to happen.

16:43and that it might cost many lives. I'm Phoebe Judge. This is Criminal.

16:54We'll be right back. To listen without ads, join Criminal Plus.

17:09What's the best way to think about age in politics? You don't want to be ageist, right? I do think term limits are more important than age limits. Some old people are really sharp. Bernie Sanders is popping off and he's like, what, 2 ,000? I'm so fed up with the fact that most of our lawmakers are so old. The gerontocracy feels like a huge problem in American politics. We're now in our third oldest Congress in history. So why won't the boomers retire? I gave serious consideration last year to not run again. I asked 17-term Congressman Jim Clyburn that exact question. And I kept being asked, how do you feel?

17:53Clyburn, who turned 86 just this week, is running for re-election in South Carolina again. And I kept answering, I feel fine. And they said, well then, why would you quit? But this week on America Actually, Congressman Clyburn makes the case for experience and the establishment.

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19:21Phoebe Judge:Tell me, who was Lorna Middleton? So Lorna Middleton was a music teacher and a dance teacher who practiced in London during the Second World War and for the decades afterwards. She was an émigré, I guess that's the kind of word she would like us to use of her, from Boston, where she grew up in the 1920s and 1930s. Her parents were English. Lorna Middleton had been a child performer, a ballerina and a singer, but she could never quite get it together in London. She couldn't break into the ballet schools, the family didn't have much money, and so they settled in suburban London, and she opened a little music school.

20:13and that's kind of who she was for her whole life. She had a lot of cats. She looked after, you know, the musical fortunes of kids in her neighborhood and during her lessons, she would sometimes tell the children, oh, you know, I had a premonition about something or I knew that was going to happen and she was someone throughout her life who had visions and could see things before they happened. She compared it to knowing the answer in a spelling test. It was as if events were kind of already visible to her, or she would see letters lit up like a light bulb in her mind. It was something that she carried from her childhood and said that her mother just asked her to stop telling her things because they had a habit of turning out to be true.

21:10Phoebe Judge:Lorna said that when she was 11, she'd felt a strong urge to contact her piano teacher and begged her parents to call him. Then they found out he had poisoned himself in his home. As a young woman, she was on her way to a party at a dance hall with a friend. It was the first time she'd gone out in months, since the start of the bombing of London. While they were on their way there, she said she suddenly had a strange sensation and insisted they go back home. Later that night, a bomb dropped and killed over 40 people in and near the dance hall. It was just something that her mind could do and found easy.

21:52I mean, she was clearly kind of fascinated by it, but I wouldn't say that it sort of, it weighed on her.

21:59Phoebe Judge:Switchboard operator Alan Hensher also said he had recurring visions, but his often troubled him. He'd been at work when he had his premonition about Aberfan. He worked in a big building on the embankment in London on the international switchboard, so, you know, pulling out cables, reconnecting them on these long shifts. Alan was 44 at the time. He lived with his parents in Essex, just outside London. People described him as intense and serious, different from the rest of his family. At 26, he'd been in a car accident that left him with a head injury. He was unconscious for four days. Shortly after he woke up, he says his premonition started.

22:46They would be, for him, accompanied by a terrible headache, a kind of growing, growing migraine, that would then be relieved at the moment of the disaster. And then a voice would say to him, like, it has happened. And it would be kind of accompanied by words or information. Alan Hensher told psychiatrist John Barker, I accept I'm able to foretell certain events, but I have no idea how or why. He didn't like paying too close attention to his visions. He said his premonitions were never about anything pleasant, and they affected his mental health. John Barker was fascinated by Lorna Middleton and Alan Hensher's apparent gifts for predicting events.

23:34He wrote a journal article about the Aberfan premonitions and said, is this perhaps an unrecognized medical or psychosomatic syndrome? He referred to it as a pre-disaster syndrome and theorized that maybe a small subset of the population had it. I think he was someone who was pushing the frontiers of psychiatry and what he thought the mind could do. And I think, you know, it's difficult to kind of reconstruct the scientific mainstream of the mid-1960s, but it was a more kind of capacious, sort of weirder space than it maybe is today. And so he was on the edges and he got in trouble for things, but he wasn't a kook by any stretch.

24:28He's in a hospital for 1 ,000 people. He's responsible for 250 severely ill people. He's been given the first antipsychotic medication in 1955. You know, they are just beginning to experiment with the treatment of serious illness and delusions. And in that context, telepathy, seeing things before they happen, it's just not the craziest thing he's heard that day. He didn't really feel challenged by the work at the hospital, where he was a senior psychiatrist. Instead, he wanted to do research into new psychiatric treatments. He had done studies trying to treat addiction and unwanted behaviors in people.

25:10The hierarchy in his hospital was not receptive to really any sort of research agenda, let alone one that was pretty fringe. John Barker went ahead with his research anyway. And about a year before the disaster in Aberfan, he'd come across an article in a medical journal that caught his attention. It was about a woman in Canada who was having a low-risk surgery. She was 43, and as a child, the woman had been told by a fortune teller that she was going to die at that age. She now felt convinced that she wouldn't survive the surgery. But she did. The surgery went well, and the woman woke up. But then suddenly went into shock and died.

25:58A post-mortem showed that she had died of a rare failure of the adrenal glands. The medical staff said they were shocked and mystified and wondered if the woman's, quote, emotional tensions had anything to do with her sudden death. John Barker had twice had similar experiences with patients who he thought seemed scared they were about to die and then mysteriously died in the hospital. He wanted to find out if an intense fear of dying could somehow affect the body. If I tell you that something terrible is going to happen to you, does that have a physiological component? Does that kind of overwhelm the body in some way and sort of bring that thing into being?

26:44That's when he traveled to Aberfan, after hearing the false rumor of a boy who supposedly died of shock or fear. After assessing the premonitions people had sent in about Aberfan, John Barker and the journalist he worked with at London's Evening Standard, Peter Fairley, published some of them in the newspaper. They received many different kinds of premonitions. One of them was a man having a dream of standing in front of a computer, which was obviously a kind of fairly unusual thing in the mid-60s, and just seeing the words Abba Van on a black screen in front of him.

27:26Phoebe Judge:Another premonition came from a woman who'd been to a spiritualist meeting the night before the disaster, and had told six other people that she had a vision of a schoolhouse, a Welsh miner, a terrified little boy, and a, quote, avalanche of coal. Another woman said she'd been noticing a bad smell for days. She described it as a decaying smell, or a smell of death. An hour before the disaster in Aberfan, she was at work and asked her co-worker if he noticed the bad smell. He didn't. Then, right around when the disaster took place, the woman jumped from her chair and said something bad had happened.

28:09Phoebe Judge:Her colleague said her face was highly inflamed, and she was breathing heavily. After publishing the premonitions, Barker and Fairley were invited to appear on a late-night television show, along with some of the people who had submitted premonitions about Aberfan. Lorna Middleton was one of them. It was the first time Peter Fairley had met most of them, and he wasn't sure what to make of them. He wrote, Weirdos would be too strong a description, but they were certainly different. They were supposed to go on the show after the commercial break, but then the host of the TV show, David Frost, came backstage.

28:52David Frost took one look at them through the door and decided they were too strange and motley to go on stage with him.

Read the full transcript

29:00Phoebe Judge:John Barker was angry about it, but Peter fairly understood why the host had changed his mind. He could see how people might think their project didn't seem credible. So he suggested that they take a different approach. They should start to collect premonitions about things that were about to happen. To sort of avoid the hindsight problem, where it's like, oh, yeah, well, you would say that after the event. Instead, people were invited to send in kind of open-ended prophecies and premonitions. They announced in the Evening Standard that they were opening what they called a premonitions bureau.

29:38They wrote, Nobody will be scoffed at, and their premonitions will be treated as confidential. Let us simply get at the truth.

29:47Phoebe Judge:How would it work? How did the premonitions bureau log these? Would they take telephone calls? Would people send in mail? Yeah, that's it. It's telephone calls. It's postcards. It's letters. It's telegrams. and they are all ending up on Peter Fairley's desk in the kind of crowded, cluttered newsroom of the Evening Standard where they are mainly collated by his assistant, a woman named Jennifer Preston. And she created a system of filing cabinets. There were kind of 13 different categories for the different premonitions that were coming in. There would be sort of transport, rail, you know, the royal family, sport, you know, things like that.

30:34And she would file these premonitions. And then she would also look at the newspapers and the wires coming in from around the world and kind of see whether any of these premonitions were sort of, were coming true. One of the categories was racing. And Peter Fairley, who liked to gamble, would sometimes check the folder for tips on what horse to bet on. They decided that the premonitions would be scored according to their accuracy, timing, and how unusual they were

31:05Phoebe Judge:Did anybody high up any of the editors say to Fairley, we're not doing this, this is too wild, this is too weird? No, they didn't. They encouraged him. I mean, Peter Feli's editor was Charles Wintour, who is the father of Anna Wintour, the great fashion journalist. And he was a stylish, sophisticated editor. And I think that two things were sort of exciting about the Kind of Premonitions Project. One was that astrology and palm reading and thinking about your future was a more accepted part of British kind of intellectual culture. Oxford had a religious experience unit studying kind of these happenings and prophecy and things like this.

32:00And also, this was a time of kind of dramatic social and scientific progress. So it seems like a kind of a wacky project now with the sort of benefit of hindsight. But I think Wintour had kind of sharp instincts both for what people wanted to read about and was maybe a little trashy, a little dangerous, but also just might have some sort of scientific kind of plausibility somewhere. They decided to keep the Premonitions Bureau going for one year, and then assess how successful it had been. If it looked like disasters could be predicted, they imagined working with Parliament in setting up some kind of official warning system for the whole country.

32:47Barker's vision of the Premonitions Bureau was collecting dreams and visions on a mass scale. He wanted to connect them all to a computer which would look for patterns in the information. And he kind of was describing, you know, a social network and sort of algorithms before they happened. But John Barker acknowledged that it was sort of a catch-22. If a disaster was averted and never happened, how could people have premonitions of it? Still, he thought it was worth trying. John Barker encouraged some of the people who'd had premonitions about Aberfan, like Lorna Middleton and Alan Hensher to keep sending in their visions.

33:32One early morning in March 1967, around 6 a.m., the phone rang at John Barker's home. It was Alan Hensher. He told John he'd just come off a night shift at the switchboard. He was upset and said, I was hoping not to have to ring you, but now I feel I must. He said he'd had a premonition that kept returning to him, of a plane crash. Allen said that it was a passenger jet and that it carried 123 or 124 people. He said, It is coming over mountains. It is going to radio. It is in trouble. Then it will cut out. Nothing. He can see lights flashing on and off. He can see a kind of a statue of Jesus. It gives a model of a plane called a caravel.

34:23It's kind of, you know, fairly sort of detailed description of a plane crash, which, you know, Barker kind of faithfully jots down and adds to the Premonition Bureau's records. About a month later, a plane crashed in Cyprus. It was traveling to Basel from Bangkok. Many of the passengers were German and Swiss people who'd been on vacation when it got caught in bad weather. The pilot got permission to land at an airport in Cyprus. On its way down preparing to land, the plane clipped a wing on a hillside, rolled over, and caught fire. The plane carried 130 people. 124 died on impact. At the time, it was maybe the fifth deadliest kind of plane crash on record.

35:14And the kind of, the correlation between Hench's vision and the events that transpire is kind of immediate. at the Evening Standard run a news story about his prophecy with the news report from the crash. So there's a kind of instant recognition that one of these premonitions seems to have been borne out.

35:36We'll be right back.

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37:58In the spring of 1967, John Barker was still working on his book, Scared to Death. It is trying to develop a thesis first formulated by Walter Cannon, who was the dean of Harvard Medical School in the 1940s, about so-called kind of voodoo death, you know, voodoo curses. If you say someone's going to die, can that kind of set off a kind of hormonal kind of storm that could then sort of overwhelm the nervous system? This was a sort of physiology first described in the 1940s. And Barker was kind of trying to develop that idea and put a name on that. And it's something that we now call and study more as the Nasebo effect, you know, which is the opposite of the placebo effect.

38:44You know, instead of giving you an inert sugar pill saying, oh, this will probably help with your headache, you give someone an inert sugar pill and say, yeah, you might feel a few side effects once you have this. And then, hey, presto, people start to report them. And obviously the kind of most extreme form of a Nacebo effect is kind of people, you know, suffering extreme symptoms even though there's nothing physiologically wrong with them. One day in April, Lorna Middleton sent a note to the Premonitions Bureau. She'd included a sketch she'd made of a recent premonition of an astronaut inside a spacecraft.

39:21And she says that she can see an astronaut petrified, terrified, and just frightened, and says, you know, this venture will end in tragedy. And, you know, you can be dismissive and say, well, this was the height of the space race, things were going wrong. you know, sending in a premonition of something going wrong in space isn't particularly original, but she sends it at 5.30 in the afternoon on a Sunday and at that moment a Russian cosmonaut, Vladimir Komorov, is circling the Earth, about to find out that his spacecraft has sort of been damaged during blast-off and many of the instruments sort of aren't working and he's going to have to steer his way back by hand, by skill, alone through the atmosphere, which is an incredibly difficult sort of bit of piloting to do.

40:17It was decided that Komarov, who'd been to space before, would steer back through the atmosphere, back to Russia, on his 17th orbit of Earth. Komarov seemed optimistic. But the first two times he tried, the engines of his spacecraft failed, and he was sent back into orbit while his batteries drained more and more. He tried a third time, using his knowledge of the stars and planets to navigate. And he actually manages it. He manages to get through the atmosphere, but then his parachutes fail to deploy and his capsule just crashes into the Earth and he's killed on impact. And as I say, you can say, oh, like space rays, things are going to go wrong.

41:00He's actually the first and one of the very few astronauts to actually die in space or re-entering atmosphere. It was the first time that that ever happened, and she sent that in just a couple of days before. When John Barker heard the news about the crash, he wrote to Lorna, you were spot on, well done. But plenty of people were skeptical of the Premonitions Bureau, calling it unscientific and biased. One person said it was just a series of haphazard guesses. The premonitions bureau had been active a little less than a year, and they'd already received hundreds of premonitions. Most of them could not be verified.

41:42They run from shipping accidents to horse race winners and other sort of more lighthearted or sort of random things. But as the year progresses, you have a few that nonetheless kind of really stand out. On October 11, 1967, Alan Henshaw told them he'd had a premonition about a train crash. He said many people would be killed, and one car would end up on top of another. Then, a couple of weeks later, the Bureau received a note from Lorna Middleton, who said she was feeling depressed. She'd had a vision of a train crash. She wrote, A station may be involved. People waiting in the station. and the words, Charing Cross.

42:35Four days later, a train leaving Hastings, bound for Charing Cross, suddenly derailed. The wheels had hit a break in the tracks, and four carriages flipped onto their sides. 49 people died. And Hencher, at the same time, is on a shift at the switchboard, complaining of a kind of worsening, worsening headache, worsening, worsening headache, until he gets sort of taken to the sick bay, the headache lifts, and he says, you know, it's happened. The next day, the story of Lorna and Alan's predictions was on the news. One newspaper headline read,

43:23And then the Premonitions Bureau reached its one-year mark. Based on their scoring system, they determined that 18 of the many hundreds of premonitions they'd received had come true. Sam Knight writes that it was a hit rate of just about 3%. And they agree with, you know, with Wintour's kind of blessing to run the experiment for another year. Mainly on the strength of kind of Hencher and Middleton's premonitions who do seem to sort of stand out. John Barker was busy in 1968. He was giving lectures and interviews about his book and research. And then he suffers a brain hemorrhage and dies in August 1968 at the age of 44.

44:16The rest of his family were downstairs when they suddenly heard him on the bedroom floor upstairs. He was taken to the hospital where he died.

44:27About a year and a half before he died, John Barker had received a phone call from Alan Hensher at one in the morning. Earlier that day, the plane crash in Cyprus had been on the news, the one Alan Hensher seemingly predicted. And Barker's sort of like, oh, are you calling back about the plane crash or expecting to hear sort of more details about that? And he's, no, no, I'm worried about you. Alan Henscher said he'd been concerned about John all day. When he thought of him, his mind became all black. Alan asked John to check the gas supply at his house, but the house didn't have one. And he says, do you have a dark car?

45:10And Barker drove a dark green car, and he said yes. And he says, look, you've got to be careful, I'm worried about you. And Barker says, are you afraid for my safety? And Henscher says yes. The next morning, John Barker wrote a note titled, Some Interesting Predictions and a Possible Death Sentence. Quote, I find it a little difficult to get off to sleep again and have, of course, decided to take extra care while driving. It would be wrong for me to say that I was not frightened by a prediction of this nature. Having recently written a book on people who were scared to death, I am perhaps beginning to feel what this would be like.

45:51You know, this is a subject that he's been studying for the last four years, and suddenly he's been told that he's in danger. And you can tell he's unsettled by it, but he's also desperately curious about it and sort of wants to see what's going to happen. You know, he talks about taking precautions. He talks about contacting Hencher and kind of asking his advice about things. It's sort of where the experiment starts to break down between the experimenter and the subject.

46:26Phoebe Judge:Before John Barker started going on speaking tours with his book, he saw Alan Hencher, who repeated his concerns. Alan thought something might happen to John in his home. He told him, I think you're going to have some trouble. John told Lorna Middleton about Alan's warning. She agreed that there was good reason for him to be careful. She dreams about Barker in the large black car arriving to sort of take Barker off, and she recounts these to him. How did this start to affect Barker? I mean, if this were me, this would be really bad. It's a stressful time. It's a stressful time, there's no question, because Barker is under huge pressure at work.

47:16He publishes his book. He's told off, he's reprimanded by his boss and by the kind of local National Health Board supervisors for sort of straying out of his lane. And yeah, and he's getting these warnings for his life at the same time.

47:34Phoebe Judge:After John Barker died, the Premonitions Bureau kept going for a while longer, but eventually the project wound down. Jennifer Preston, the assistant at the Evening Standard, kept all of the notes they'd collected, and for years she had filing cabinets holding more than 3 ,000 premonitions sitting in her house. Do you think that the premonitions bureau, I mean, was it a failure in some sense? I mean, did anything actually come of it? No disasters were averted, and it kind of just, the files just sat. It was definitely a sort of failure in a sort of objective sense of the thing that they wanted to build, you know, a kind of national early warning system with the kind of the nation sending in their dreams and presentiments and feeding this into a sort of 1960s room-shaped computer.

48:27That never came to pass. I think that it succeeded in the sense of giving a kind of home for these questions, acknowledging that prophecy and seeing the future. It's a central part of how every human culture has tried to make sense of the future and to think about time.

49:01Criminal is created by Lauren Spohr and me. Nadia Wilson is our senior producer. Katie Bishop is our supervising producer. Our producers are Susanna Robertson, Jackie Sajiko, Lily Clark, and Lena Sillison. This episode was fact-checked by Katie Sederborg. Our show is mixed and engineered by Veronica Simonetti. Julian Alexander makes original illustrations for each episode of Criminal. You can see them at thisiscriminal.com. and you can sign up for our newsletter at thisiscriminal.com slash newsletter. Sam Knight's book is The Premonitions Bureau, A True Account of Death Foretold. We hope you'll consider supporting our work by joining our membership program, Criminal Plus.

49:45You can listen to Criminal, This Is Love, and Phoebe Reads a Mystery without any ads. Plus, you'll get bonus episodes. These are special episodes with me and Criminal co-creator Lauren Spohr talking about everything from how we make our episodes to the crime stories that caught our attention that week to things we've been enjoying lately. To learn more, go to patreon.com slash criminal. We're on Facebook at This Is Criminal and Instagram and TikTok at criminal underscore podcast. We're also on YouTube at youtube.com slash criminal podcast. Criminal is part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Discover more great shows at podcast.voxmedia.com.

50:26I'm Phoebe Judge. This is Criminal.

From the publisher

On October 21, 1966, a woman named Lorna Middleton suddenly woke up from her sleep, struggling to breathe. The day before, a man named Alan Hencher was at work in London when he began to tremble all over. They both said they knew something terrible was about to happen.

Sam Knight’s book is The Premonitions Bureau: A True Account of Death Foretold.

Say hello on Facebook, Instagram and TikTok. Sign up for our occasional newsletter. Follow the show and review us on Apple Podcasts.

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