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Podcast Episode Notes: Dev Interrupted - Why Teams Will Break This Year (and How to Fix Them)
Episode Overview Hosts: Ben Lloyd Pearson, Andrew Zigler Guests: Ori Keren (CEO, LinearB), Dharmesh Thakker (General Partner, Battery Ventures) Location: San Francisco, live audience recording Focus: Exploring the future of developer productivity with a focus on AI-powered tools in software development.
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Key Themes and Insights
- The Future of Developer Productivity
- AI as a Tool for Efficiency:
- Discussion on how AI tools such as code completion and review will shape productivity in software development over the next 12 to 24 months.
- Predictions about the impact of these tools on engineering teams and overall workflow.
- Audience Engagement
- The episode included audience Q&A, enriching the conversation by incorporating real-world experiences from attendees.
- The Challenges of AI Integration
- Experts highlighted potential pitfalls of implementing AI in development:
- Fragmentation in Tools: Many AI tools are emerging, leading to inconsistencies and confusion.
- Trust Issues: Developers are skeptical about the reliability of AI-generated code reviews.
- Predictions for AI in Development
- Specialized AI Models: Expect more tailored AI solutions for specific programming needs, enhancing productivity.
- Evolution of Developer Roles:
- Growth in roles requiring AI literacy, emphasizing a blend of software engineering and data science skills.
- Senior developers will become more invaluable as they integrate AI tools into their practices, enhancing decision-making and innovation.
- The Rise of Citizen Developers
- Non-technical employees (citizen developers) using low-code/no-code platforms to create applications.
- Concerns about shadow IT and the potential for technical debt due to unregulated use of these tools.
- Developer Experience
- Emphasis on creating better developer experiences through automation and improved tools to foster productivity and job satisfaction.
- Companies are beginning to recognize the ROI of investing in developer experience.
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Key Takeaways
- Token Economy in AI: The hosts discussed the implications of a token-based economy in AI services, comparing it to a modern loot box where value is derived from spending tokens wisely.
- Evolution of AI Tools: AI tools are expected to become more integrated into development workflows, aiding developers in managing code quality and security more effectively.
- Senior Developers as Assets: The value of senior developers will rise, as they will harness AI tools to improve efficiency and drive innovation, serving as mentors to junior staff as they adapt to the new tools.
- Importance of Structured Rollouts: Implementing structured rollouts of new technologies can significantly enhance productivity across teams.
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Additional Resources
- Linear B's 8 Habits of Highly Productive Engineering Teams: A practical guide to establishing data-driven habits within engineering teams.
- Future Episode Teasers: Discussions expected on code quality versus code coverage and insights from guest speakers.
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Concluding Thoughts The podcast episode presents a forward-looking narrative on the intersection of AI and software development, emphasizing both opportunities and challenges. The conversations around AI integration, the evolving role of developers, and the importance of fostering a positive developer experience underline the dynamic nature of the tech industry.
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Follow-Up Actions
- Engage with the hosts and guests on LinkedIn for further insights and discussions.
- Explore the recommended resources to enhance team productivity and adapt to the evolving landscape of software development.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:08Welcome to Dev Interrupted. I'm your host Ben Lloyd Pearson. And I'm your host, Andrew Ziegler. And Ben, what's on your mind this week? Yeah, so I have something to confess. I have a credit addiction. I signed up for a new AI service that promised all sorts of agents and other things that would do various tasks and solve problems for me. And they gave me a whole bunch of monthly credits to hire these agents. but it really sent me down this like rabbit hole of like the future of work and how we value things i think like are we going to be tokenizing ourselves or our work or our tasks that we carry out every week like basically everything's like priced in tokens now and hard work costs more tokens but you never really actually know what the cost is until like the prompts have already been sent so yeah somehow i want i find myself wondering like how can i maximize the amount of tokens that I spend because, you know, spending more tokens means you're accomplishing more work, right?
1:08Like, but anyways, maybe we'll talk about this more later. Let's dive into this week's news. Yeah, we can dive into this week's news. I got a great one about OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and a recent Reddit AMA. But before we get there, this token thing you're talking about is stuck in my brain. It's so funny to me because if you think about it in some ways, when you go and you have your tokens and you're trying to get the result you want, it kind of becomes like the modern loot box. Like you have all these tokens and you're trying to get that like rare shiny thing at the end and it only comes out every once in a while.
1:41So you got to put a lot of tokens in the machine. And so the idea that, you know, doing more work, spending more tokens means that you're more valuable. That's, that's fascinating. Maybe it's about the things that you can't get out of the machine that you put the tokens into. I wonder how many tokens it's going it costs for me to have an agent that figures out how to best spend my tokens. Well, I really hope that people let us know in the comments on Substack this week about how many tokens that they think that that would be worth. But now to move on to this week's news, I do want to cover an interesting one from Reddit AMA.
2:14Now, we all know Reddit AMAs, right? Where somebody in a high position somewhere, you know, they descend into the throng of the masses and they answer questions for the common folk. And we had one last week from Sam Altman. And there was someone who asked, would you consider releasing some model weights and publishing some research about it? And in this AMA, you know, Sam indicated that he thinks that they're on the wrong side of history right now when it comes to open sourcing models and technology around AI and indicated that that's something that they might do in the future. Now, of course, you know, in a Reddit AMA, you should take everything with a grain of salt, but it definitely sparked a lot of interesting conversations online.
2:55Yeah, you know, honestly, my opinion is that the risk of open sourcing these models in some of these ways is probably extremely low. Like the real commercial value comes from all of the training and the reasoning that they add to these models. So I do kind of agree that he probably is on the wrong side of history. And we are already seeing a lot of innovation and rapid iteration coming out of the open source space on this. But so, yeah, I kind of feel like this is a no brainer. When it comes to open sourcing AI, it's a complicated formula. It's not like other open source technologies in the past where you release the source code, you release it under a license that may or may not be permissive, that may or may not let someone build something of commercial value on it.
3:38But ultimately, when you release those things, someone else can replicate your success and carry the torch of that technology forward. But with AI, when you open source it, it's a little more complex because you might open source the model and even maybe the weights that you used. But if you don't open source the training code that you use or the hyperparameters you use to get it into that state, or if you don't share your training data so that folks can understand what went into the model and then maybe further train it, then you're only giving them a really small part of the equation. And when companies release their technology in that way and call it open source, they still hold all the keys because they're the ones that can run that model, continue to train it and make it succeed at scale.
4:23So it's a very complicated conversation within the open source communities right now about what that definition even means. So yeah, a story that I've been reading this week was from, it's actually a really cool like project from this gentleman named Chris Keel, who's a software engineer at Amazon. And he published this article on his personal blog where it's titled, Software Development Topics I've Changed My Mind On After 10 Years in the Industry. And he actually did this previously four years ago when he was at six years in his career. And it's a really just cool list that sort of serves as a document of where he is personally on a journey, but also shares a lot of interesting little tidbits that he's picked up.
5:04And there were two that actually stood out that he changed his mind on. First, simple is not a given. it takes constant work. And second, most programming should be done long before a single line of code is written. And I actually kind of think maybe these two points are related because, you know, you think good planning, good preparation takes a lot of time. And, but it's something that really has like a long-term efficiency gains that you create if you do it right. The thing that I kind of take away from this is, you know, like habits in particular can be a really powerful way of making these types of improvements.
5:36Like if you're habitually simplifying things in your life, like, you know, it's a really great way to just keep accumulating like benefits. And also just habitually reflecting on things that you're learning as you're going. This is a great article from Chris. I love the idea of him reflecting year after year on practices within engineering that he agrees with that he doesn't agree with and seeing how his own sentiment changes over time. You know, I keep a daily journal. I'm gonna steal this idea for myself and reevaluate how I think about, you know, technology over time. I think it makes for a really great reflection exercise.
6:11And the things that stood out to me in his roundup this, you know, for this article were very similar to yours. An opinion of his that changed is that there's no pride in managing or understanding complexity, which really ties into your idea of simple is not a given. But what I love about like the nuance of this is that there's no pride in that. If you create an incredibly complex beast that you maintain all the knowledge and you have the keys and you understand how it works on an intricate level, you're really just creating a nightmare for your future self because that becomes very hard to manage and ultimately scale.
6:44And there's no real pride in building things that way. Yeah, you're reminding me of a time that I had to understand some Microsoft API documentation and it was the most convoluted, complex thing I think I've ever experienced. and someone was probably really proud of that you know but there's no pride there's no pride i assure you i i felt no pride trying to understand this mess and something about from his lineup that i like too was about what didn't change an opinion is that stayed the same you know he stayed firm on this which is code coverage is absolutely nothing to do with code quality we're actually having an upcoming guest on the show from diff blue who's talking about code quality versus code coverage.
7:25So definitely stick around for a future episode, but we're going to dive more into that one because I totally agree with Chris here. So what else have you been reading about, Andrew? Yeah, I read an article about how chat is a bad UI pattern for a lot of development tools, which really stood out to me. This is a conversation I know that many folks have had about like, what's the best format to be working with a tool like AI. And up until now, we've kind of been shoving LLMs into chat windows because that was the easiest way to start extracting immediate value. But it causes us to get stuck, right, in this mental perception.
7:59And now the whole world is trained on LLM equals chat interface, which is just one way of interfacing with the technology. And, you know, this reminded me actually of another article I read on artificial ignorance, a really great sub stack that I highly recommend everyone check out, where that talked in November about how when we're forcing AI capabilities into chat windows, we're failing to capture its true potential. And that holds true for things like development tools with AI as well. You know, I feel like we have pigeonholed it into this, into a chatbot because it is so effective at that model, you know, like being able to talk to any sort of like knowledge base has like been pretty revolutionary, actually.
8:42You know, I think a company that really understands this super well is Cursor, like they come to mind. And, you know, there's been some rumors recently that haven't been i don't believe they've been confirmed but there's rumors that they are now the fastest company to ever scale to 100 a million arr it was i think like 12 months or something like that and i think really the key to their success is that they do have like varying degrees of interfaces that are sort of like scaled to the level of challenge that you're trying to resolve so sometimes it's like just trying to predict like your next step like the things that you want to type in the next moment.
9:17But other times you're doing things like selecting a section of code base and just having a conversation with the model about how to change it and, you know, sort of iterating on it based on a conversation. This really ties in well to today's episode because there's one of my favorite moments from this episode was actually from some audience engagement we have just as a little foreshadowing there. But Rob Zuber, the CTO at CircleCI, touched on this point really well. And he provided a great example where, you know, he said, today we asked these GPT models to create a webpage based on certain criteria, like certain user criteria.
9:54Tomorrow, we may actually just have an API on your website listening for users to show up that can create completely custom content in real time based on what that user is trying to achieve. So it's less, you know, like we may have to completely shift our perception of how we integrate AI into all of our platforms. So you definitely want to stick around to hear about that in the episode. Yeah, that'll definitely be an insightful one for sure. And then one last fun story that I wanted to share before we head off to our full interview today is that NASA is going to be doing a Twitch stream from the International Space Station.
10:31Oh, nice.
11:01things, reach out to us because we would love to have somebody who's been in space or helped people get to space on this show. That would be a cool field to definitely cover for sure. There's so much expertise to explore there. I love the idea of NASA doing a Twitch stream. What a great way to engage with folks, but also especially with like kids and get them excited about science and space. I think that that's a perfect platform for them and with a big audience. So I'm definitely going to tune in. All right, Andrew. So this is the point where we get to make a prediction about an event that will happen in the future to us, but our audience will find out after the event and they'll get to see whether or not we are accurate.
11:41Oh, I love this part where all of our biases go on display and we figure out if we're right or wrong. Yeah. So what is your Super Bowl prediction? Everyone's got a prediction. What's yours, Andrew? oh man well for american football my prediction is that well you know i can't even necessarily think about what's going to be happening in the game or who's me playing all i know is i need to still need to be looking up the puppy bowl information for myself and people in my household but the biggest thing that i'm already anticipating and future me hopefully fingers crossed uh is on the finish line being like yes i was right uh is that there's probably be some kind of like really either tragically good or tragically bad AI generated commercial, maybe we'll get both.
12:23But there's definitely going to be a lot of talk about how AI was used in the Super Bowl commercials. That's my personal prediction. But maybe that's my own bias speaking out. Yeah. So I actually made this point in a post on LinkedIn that went nowhere. And I think it's because people are just sick of seeing AI generated videos at this point. But I agree with you. I think this is, we're going to see, you know, at least one, maybe multiples of people like making AI part of the punchline within the commercials joke. Yeah. But also like, you know, so I was talking about my token addiction. So I spent a quarter of my monthly tokens generating videos for this LinkedIn post before I finally just went to Sora and had it, you know, as part of my monthly membership there.
13:11but why are footballs so hard for ai to understand like i don't get it like every video there's like 10 footballs flying everywhere people are morphing into footballs and footballs are like scoring touchdowns by themselves but there's only ever one football on the field in a game so something is training these models to put footballs everywhere or there's a lack of training maybe what i like about your post is you really accurately called out that a lot of that you know that video footage as photos those photos are licensed in their own maybe by private parties who won't let them be trained and so maybe the ai just really does lack that kind of understanding it kind of reminds me of just how we know you're getting all these crazy results and i'm sorry to hear that you spent a quarter of your monthly budget of tokens trying to get this result if anyone in our audience is good at the economy please help him budget these tokens so he can make it through.
14:04But I will say that the LLMs, they just lack a really good spatial understanding. A fun example that I did just before this, we hopped on here is I asked an LLM, I asked ChatGPT to finish the sentence. The football flew 200 feet overhead. I jumped as high as I could and, and of course it wants to finish the sentence. And it says, stretched my fingers towards it, feeling the leather brush against my fingertips, just enough to tip it back into my grasp as I crash to the ground breathless but victorious uh but as we all know humans can't jump 200 feet in the air to catch a football it only has a semantic understanding of our world but not a spatial one yeah man i wonder what universe it comes from like either it's a universe for 200 feet is actually not very much distance or people are 200 feet tall or ben or it assumes that you're maybe in space maybe you're in space and you're on your or you're on the moon and you're jumping and you could maybe get it um so maybe it's just future thinking but with all that said this has been a really fun news roundup and thanks for sticking around coming up we're on ben's conversation about the future of developer productivity with linear b ceo ori karen and dharmish thacker generous general partner at battery ventures this format for this episode is a little different than what we normally do, but there's really great audience engagement as well.
15:30This conversation was recorded in front of a whole bunch of folks at The Melody in San Francisco, which is a beautiful venue. We have lots of video of it too, so be sure to check it out. Features some really great Q &A, like I said, and you don't want to miss it. Yep, stick around. Habits are a powerful thing. Maybe you've read one of the many books about the habits of highly successful people out there? Well, Linear B is out with their own book, The Eight Habits of Highly Productive Engineering Teams. This practical guide offers advice and templates to help you establish durable data-driven habits.
16:05It covers things like setting actionable team goals, coaching developers to level up their skills, using monthly metrics check-ins to unblock friction, and run more efficient and effective sprint retrospectives. This guide has something for everyone within your engineering team. So check out the link in the show notes for the eight habits of highly productive engineering teams.
16:29Today, we're talking about the future of developer productivity. And I've got Ori Karan here from Linear B and Dharmesh Stocker from Battery Ventures. So just give us a moment, a round of applause for our guests that have joined us today.
16:49So this session is a little bit about the opinions of the people on this stage, but we also have a lot of really brilliant people in this room, and it's why we've brought in here. So, you know, we're going to share our predictions about the next 12 to 24 months, but we're also just as interested in what you out there in the audience think is going to happen. So there will be some opportunity for you to share your perspectives during this session. So, you know, don't be shy. I know you're all eating now, but as you finish up your food, you can participate a little more. But we really want you to learn from us, but also from the people around you.
17:26So if we can get to our predictions, we have five predictions about the future of developer productivity. And before we get into that, I've heard actually that, Hori, that you have a bold prediction that you want to make. yeah we were talking about it in the podcast we recorded together and my bulk prediction says that even though there's a lot of levers to pull to increase developer productivity in the next year i think because we're still in the norming storming phase developer productivity is actually going to decline in 2025. I think people are still experimenting with a lot of technologies and they still don't know how to gather them together.
18:18Before, you know, in every change, what happens is you get a small dip before you kind of like get your processes together. I think like 2026, 2027 is where we see the peak, but 2025 is still going to be challenging with a lot of experiments and actually predict develop productivity will decline a bit. Yeah, I think it's a really great observation, you know, because 2024 almost felt like it was the year really to experiment with a lot of the AI technologies that are out there. And businesses and engineering leaders, they get some room to experiment, but eventually you have to start showing the fruits of that experimentation.
19:03You know, so I think people are going to see that, But, you know, a lot of our predictions today really are centered around all of the new generative AI changes that are happening and how it's impacting your senior developers versus non-technical people within your organization. You know, and also how this is going to impact how organizations respond to DevEx concerns over the next couple of years. So with that said, I want to really just jump into this first prediction we have about AI-powered development tools. I feel like a day doesn't go by at this point where I'm not talking about these things.
19:38Particularly, I feel like agentic AI is coming through a lot. But, you know, we should all be familiar already with the code generation and auto-completion tools that are out there. So this is things like GitHub Copilot. OpenAI, I believe, has a tool that works within this. There's quite a few other competitors that have emerged on the market. And really what these are doing are enabling developers to write code faster, often with fewer errors, with some exceptions to that. And I think one thing that we can expect is more specialized AI models that are tailored for specific programming conditions.
20:15So I wonder if that aligns with what you two are hearing from the market. Or is it going to be the name of the game with AI, particularly around auto-completion, going to be in customizing it to workflows? Yes, I think I would invite it to, too. I think the industry now is ready to experiment with, and we've seen it in the last year. every second software company is experimenting with what we call assisted workflows where it's like a co-pilot or something that helps you with the AI-based review. I can see a lot of energy putting into that. We're trying to measure the productivity coming out of it.
20:59It's still controversial. You can see a lot of more throughput, but on the other hand, sometimes the code churns faster out of those systems. So definitely in everything that's assisted, where you have a developer that still leads the effort, we can see organizations experimenting with it and a lot of cool things are happening. Now, if you move to Argenti use cases, which is where the future is, I think it's almost like a year behind. You don't still see, you see early experiments, but you don't see confidence of organizations to go and deploy, like, I don't know, an agent that takes like a simple task from a JIRA queue and issues a PR, or an agent that does like fixes a bug, or an agent that looks in SRE problems and fix them, and security scans or whatever.
21:58And I think it's going to take time. It's probably going to take like two or three more years for people to feel more confident with that. It's almost like autonomous cars, like the technology was there, but then you had to put a lot of regulation. Same thing I think is going to happen in software. The technology is going to be there next year, but there's still a lot of problems to solve around IP, like who's owning the IP, around legal implications, around compliance, SOC 2, all that type of problems. So the technology will move faster, but it's going to take time to streamline all of these things into mainstream development.
22:41Some color. First and foremost, thank you so much for having me here. There's so much depth that we covered in the last panel. I'm like a big pictures guy, but it's great to see how all this great work is coming together. Your question, Ben, about whether AI tools will be ubiquitous. Makes total sense. You think about like 5 million developers in the US, you know, on average getting paid 100, 200K. It's like almost$500 billion that is being spent. But there's so much work that is BS work. You got to go, you know, fix syntax issues. You got to do documentation. You got to grade unit tests. All this ancillary work that no developer, you know, got a CS degree to go work on can be automated and just makes economic sense.
23:25For companies, it makes sense because they can take their most valuable resources and point them to driving innovation instead of fixing syntax issues. For the developer, the experience is so much better because they can focus on more fulfilling work. And, you know, for the customer, it's better because you can push code, hopefully higher quality code faster. And so for all those reasons, the economics of, you know, these tools makes a ton of sense. The problem right now is there's just so much fragmentation. It's like a games business. Every week, there's a new tool. It's like Copilot. Now there's Codium and Cursor and Magic and Poolside.
24:00There's like 20 different tools. And so I feel like in 2025 or perhaps 26, you'll see the market converge to a couple of these tools that become the enterprise standard or the startup standard. But right now, there's a lot of fragmentation. Egentic is like two steps beyond that. Once you standardize a set of tools and best practices on how port assist works, how PR automation works, you know, what you guys talked about with Linear B last time, how you push that for two customers and test to A-B testing with customers. Once we standardize on that process, then we can go implement that in a genetic manner.
24:37But I think that's like at least two or three years away. So that's my prediction on that. Yeah, and I think you're actually answering one of the questions that I have, and that is, will by the year 2026, So after this next year, will developers actually trust the reviews that they get from these AI models? Like, is that the point where, like, will we be able to get there that quickly? But it seems like both of you think we're more in the, like, two to three year mark before we can really start to see, like, maximize the productivity impact of these. You think that's accurate? You're asking if developers will get a review from, like, a model and you say, hey, I trust the review 100%.
25:16100%. Yeah, I mean, I think today there's so much skepticism. It's like a trust but verify, right? Like we always have to verify everything that comes out of these models. I'm still looking for the developers that will look at a peer review and trust it 100%. So I think it's kind of going to be the same. Some of the comments you will accept, some of the comments you will say, hey, maybe you don't understand the broader context, but that's when it becomes reality. Developers trust open source. They trust cloud environments that code runs on. They trust peer reviews. If a system is going to learn from prior PR merges and apply a bunch of automation and intelligence to it, and it's not something that they want to spend a lot of time on, they would rather be writing more source code.
26:00I think there's every reason why the system can be trusted. However, you would still go verify some of the more extreme cases, some of the more important builds. But we're certainly saying, you know, our firm is involved with 100 and call it 200 companies that range anywhere from 5 million to 3 or 4 billion. The whole notion of PR mergers getting automated, at least a low end PR mergers getting automated is very, very standard right now. I don't think there is a trust issue, but you've got to verify the more complex issues. So I'm curious from the audience, we have three technologies here listed that we think are going to be a big part of AI over the next three years.
26:39completion text generation agentic ai code reviews just by a show of hands how many of you are actively adopting or experimenting with at least one of these yeah that's what i expected is definitely most of the audience now i'm curious if there's any of you out there that are doing all three of them i've got one hand in the bag would you be interested in sharing anything about your story of adopting this, not to put you on the spot. You can tell me now. There was a lot of hesitance among some of the members of our team. Our team is small, eight people, all engineers. And some of the people have been professionals for 20 years.
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27:24And so they've seen all of these waves of AI. They've been very against it. but where they have relented is on the more mundane boilerplate code like all these frameworks require and so the code generation auto completion that was really easy for them under to see the value like we rely heavily on rust so when the automation makes mistakes the compiler will tell us those are combination like rust kind of makes it a little more safe to adopt this and I think other languages will start to adopt some of that intelligence and their compilers over time. On the automated bug fixing and code reviews, we have thousands and thousands of dependencies.
28:09And so keeping those dependencies updated would be a whole job function for us maybe two or three years ago. And we don't even review, like we have a bot that reviews another bot opening those update PRs or dependency maintenance PRs, which is really nice. And then for the agentic, we try to keep a pulse on what's happening outside of our world. Like we have our customers, we have our Slack, and then we have like our internal communications. But there's, we felt probably about eight months ago that the world was moving much faster and we had to be really concerned about local maxima. So we constantly are pulling in data that matches, like new posts that match certain keywords.
29:02They come from a variety of feeds, ranging from Google News to Hacker News. And they are experimenting, like an agent that we have nothing to do with will propose new prototypes, new bounties even, to bring in other humans. and we're constantly trying to keep our finger on the pulse. And so are our customers, too. That's great. It's a great story. And actually very amazing. I mean, it seems like you're ahead of the curve in this audience, at least. Absolutely. Yeah, and it's great to see so much adoption. Weaving, for instance. Like, so Darmes and I are both involved in this company called Weaveate.
29:43They do all three of these, too, for sure. So that's like a vector database. Bob says hi, but like it's a vector database, it's open source. And so their agent lives in Slack. And if you ask a question, like you need some help with a feature or a new API, a new syntax, it'll just respond and drop in the docs. That's one example, but there's a ton of other examples of agentic workflows within their business, within our business, within most businesses, I would say, at least that I know about you know awesome i really appreciate the insight and for anyone else out there that is you to share their thoughts there will be more opportunities so don't worry so before we move on to the next insight i want to ask both of you what do you think is going to be the biggest impact to developers over the next year or so in terms of the impact of these new ai tools i think the near-term impact in 12 months it's i think engineers are doubling down as data scientists There used to be where you'd create a model and then you'd provide that to engineers to go write an application on top.
30:49I think the role of the AI engineer is like doubling down saying, hey, you have this extremely powerful foundational models accessible through an AI or through an API. You can now iterate through your application logic, make sure the model's not hallucinating and you're doubling down as a data scientist and a software engineer. And you're implementing much higher order logic that customers benefit from. So I think your AI engineer role is getting super elevated, has much higher efficacy more so than throughput. It's not about the lines of code. It's how we can impact the business by combining application logic with foundational models wrapped into a killer application at record speed.
31:30So I think the role is becoming really important and they're doubling down as data scientists. If I can add, I think it's almost like every developer role, you will need to complement with some AI capabilities. We're hiring right now and we need a full stacker, you know, engineer with AI capabilities. We need a backend engineer with AI capabilities. By the way, they don't need to write the models or be the best data scientist, but they need to know how to leverage them. where do the models stay what's the do's and the don'ts what can they consume etc so i think you're going to transform a lot of like their roles yeah we'll definitely get into that and it's a great segue actually into our next key prediction so and that is the senior developer is going to become more valuable in your organization so i think there's this common belief that generative ai is having a bigger impact on the lower skill developers like your junior developers or fresh graduates.
32:32But more and more research is coming out that seems to indicate that it's actually your senior developers, in fact, that not only going to reap the most benefits, but are going to be the ones that you're going to depend on the most heavily. So I think the key things that are driving this, again, AI is going to show up at a lot of these, but, you know, natural language interfaces are dramatically shifting, you know, how people learn new technologies and skills. In fact, this technology really is here today. I think if you're looking for one use case to adopt when it comes to AI, it's creating, it's giving your developers something like ChatGPT or Copilot or a tool where they can have a natural language interface into their code base.
33:18And with really the key benefit being knowledge and skills acquisition so they can more rapidly achieve proficiency in new tools or technologies or processes. Gen AI is also likely to introduce a lot of new bottlenecks to your organization. So, you know, if all you're doing with AI is producing more code, it doesn't actually mean you're going to be shipping more code into your production. So there's still going to be code reviews that are required. You're going to have to run everything through your CI and CD pipelines. And it's senior developers who feel the biggest negative impact from these problems.
33:54And in fact, I really believe, you know, for this, that structured rollouts are the name of the game. There was a recent research article from Google that found that using a structured rollout, there was a 21 % velocity improvement for what they call enterprise-grade tasks. So they gave, you know, a range of developers from, you know, the most junior all the way up to the most senior, a structured way to use generative AI. And on average, the senior developer, on average, they saw 21 % improvement. The improvement was actually bigger than that for the senior developers. And then lastly, you know, security always comes up.
34:32It's a very recurring topic, but it's going to continue to shift to the left and be more integrated into your developers environment. So, you know, you're going to be detecting vulnerabilities much earlier. Developers will be empowered to catch issues much earlier before they even hit like your CI-CD pipeline, for example. And your senior developers really need, you know, support and enablement so that the burden of maintaining a security posture doesn't fall into them. So I want to get your guys' insight. Like, how do you think that senior developers are going to be impacted over the next year?
35:07Yeah, that's it. really interesting topic. I think there's two things that are going to happen with senior developers. First of all, whoever is a senior developer today, they kind of grew without AI supporting them. And I think what it will cause or what causes is you have now in key positions in some companies, companies people who actually learn the call base on their own you know AI is assisting you to like accelerate fast and these people are going to be assets it's going to be really really hard to lose them there's something also with senior developers that are again didn't grow up on on AI supporting them that they spark they have a life I think and it's debatable I'm willing to hear like other opinions this creativity thing going on because they don't just say you know they get a task hey you should do this they're the people that can say hey you know let's refactor this entire area maybe let's change the product and do these type of things and i think the senior developers of 10 years from now won't have the same life knowledge because they're going to use a lot of AI to gain the knowledge and rely on it a lot more.
36:36So I predict the senior developers of now are going to be a major asset. I would say the second thing, the senior developers that are going to be here in 10 years from now are going to be a five people team. They want to activate agents that take like, you know, pick up, you know, simple tasks from a Jira queue and work for them. They're going to have agents that do AI-based review. They're going to have agents that fix SRE problems that they see in security. So it's almost like a strong senior developer would be like a 10x or a 50x multiplier. So it's really, really going to be interesting how senior developers evolve over the next years.
37:22Are there any skills that you think senior developers should be focusing on right now? Definitely go and see an experiment with AI. Lead the way. Don't just settle for assisted stuff. I'm asking my senior developers right now, my engineering manager is asking senior developers right now to go and experiment with agentic use cases. So those type of things. But I think, again, I said before, it's also very, very important not to lose this spark of creativity and offer ideas and all these type of things that makes a single developer great. Yeah, you know, something that I'm actually hearing a lot is the notion of like a product-oriented engineer.
38:10Like engineers who can actually take an idea or a technical challenge all the way down to the end user of that challenge. So even if you're a backend engineer that's optimizing a database query or something like that, you should still be thinking about the real-world usage of that query to make sure that it's optimized for that situation. Just on that point, you asked the question, what should senior developers be thinking about? I think of senior developers as what the industry calls 10x developers, right? It's not necessarily that they produce 10x the amount of code, it is that they have 10x the amount of impact by architectural choices, by best practices, what have you.
38:47and all this talk we hear about AI is so focused on developer productivity as measured by throughput saying, hey, AI is going to generate more lines of code. Cares, doesn't matter. The question is, what code is going to drive the most impact on your end customers? And so I think senior developers can lead the charge in focusing on developer efficacy as opposed to throughput. And by that, what I mean is, when you contribute a set of code, how do you then A-B test that? How does that impact the end customer? Does that drive the intended business impact? And then how do you bring it back, close the loop, and figure out how do you prioritize the source code that can ultimately impact the end user, right?
39:29So I think that's where a 10x developer can have 100x impact by closing the loop end-to-end, pushing code faster, but higher quality code, measure with the end customer impact, and use that to import, learn better best practices. And then that can become a training ground or coaching ground for some of the junior developers to focus on higher impact work. So I think this whole concept of developer efficacy, you know, productivity is measured by customer impact, not lines of code in terms of throughput, is an evolution this industry needs to go towards. Yeah, so I want to throw it back to the audience for just a moment.
40:03I'm curious, show of hands again, are you implementing a practice today to help your senior engineers specifically adopt generative AI versus just a general practice? Again, one hand. I don't know who that is, but do you want to share what you're doing? Kind of more kind of encouraging my senior to explore, but basically just so we can save time. So go explore and do more of that just so we can cut off time. And often what I see and kind of maybe it is a follow-up question here. because you need to you know developers they're coding in coding language so that's how they express themselves and now what all of a sudden they need to express themselves actually in english which kind of makes the product management in a way redundant i would say so kind of pushing my engineers to think more of a product managers and you know set the the prompt to solve about the problem in the context of a user or like the value that you're trying to produce and kind of as an outcome like, okay, now let's help me to code it.
41:23So that's really where kind of pushing my seniors to work. Yeah, and I think, you know, something that really resonates with me on that is that these AI tools can actually be pretty good devices to role play your user, right? Like I think developers aren't always as accustomed to meeting customers and talking directly to users. It can be difficult for them sometimes, but ChatGPT or tools like that can actually be really great at just telling you to be this user and answer my questions or how would a user interact with a system like this? So I think there definitely is a lot of potential there to help your developers think more like a product manager and to think more about product design.
42:09And I want to keep us moving forward into our next prediction. And it's a topic that I think you really can't discuss without talking about developer experience because they really do seem to come hand in hand. And, you know, I hear a lot from engineering leaders that they have a hard time understanding how to invest in developer experience. And, you know, I think it's not going to go away, but if you can do it in a strategic way, there's some pretty big benefits that you can achieve. So some of the technologies that we're looking at in this space is particularly around like unifying development environments.
42:45So, you know, things will become more integrated over time. We'll see more seamless coding to testing deployment tool chains. You know, imagine a world where code reviews start to become more automated inside of the IDE as the developer writes their code. You can have AI agents or other services running within the IDE and telling them that there's a problem before they even send it to their team. I also think the documentation and knowledge sharing are potentially dramatically going to shift. The point we have on the slide, I believe, says it's the end of documentation. But really, I think what we're seeing is developers are relying more on automated documentation and AI assistance to generate and maintain their documentation.
43:30And I really think that there's going to be some significant improvements to knowledge sharing that comes out of this, you know, as like knowledge bases start to get replaced by like hyper-focused LLMs. I think about moving from like an internal forum to like a knowledge base that is updated automatically through a natural language interface. And then there's also, you know, just the constant force of asynchronous development. So, you know, the pandemic normalized remote work culture, these recent return to office mandates that have come out. But virtually every modern enterprise is distributed to some degree today.
44:08And so, you know, if your tools don't support asynchronous development today, they really are. Even if you are an office based culture, you really are sort of handicapping yourself. So I wanted to see what you guys had to say about that. really good topic because the way you ask the questions is like the problems that cause developer experience not to be great now when i take a step back and there's a debate out there how should we measure developer experience and you know there's been companies who are saying quantitative metrics is the best way to do it you gotta measure build times you gotta measure flaky tests or how much time I wait for an environment, etc.
44:54And then others say, hey, let's do an academic survey or something like that. I say nobody wins. The most important thing to do is to have a framework to fix the problems. Whatever metrics you collect, whether you do it quant or qual or both of them, it's just the beginning. And the topics you spoke about, like how do I improve the day-to-day of the developers to have a better developer experience? By the way, not because, yeah, some of it is I want my developers to have a world-life balance, etc. But at the end of the day, I want them to be more productive. So what we're missing in this space, I think, and it's hard for me not to say that in Linear B we're attacking this problem is some sort of framework and an infrastructure that will help you solve these problems, that will help you see, hey, you know what?
45:56Reviewing code is like we talked about PRs and small PRs and all that in the previous session. Reviewing code is my bottleneck. Let me deploy an automation or an AI-based solution that helps me overcome this problem. So instead of like staying in the argument, let's take it to the next step let's build like an infrastructure and a product that lets you solve these problems so i think it's really really important to go to the next phase and here's the future that i see maybe it's a bold prediction we started seeing it with customers but i think it's going to get more and more extreme people that have awareness to developer experience and they want to improve it, they're going to go from an hour from commit to production to minutes because they're going to have AI agents working for them, solving pipeline issues.
46:51And people who are stuck behind, they're going to still stay with 20 days of a cycle time. So the gap is going to get so big between these companies. That's one of the problems that I'm really passionate about and I'm eager to help organizations solve this problem. Perhaps in my mind, I think about developer experience. It comes up as a new term and I'm like, what does that even mean? Because we talk to like 6 ,000 companies a year and now there's this trend of developer experience, developer productivity and it's coming up. So when we think about it internally, it's kind of a simple framework where developers are doing so much more.
47:30I told you they're doubling down as data scientists, they're scanning code in some cases, they're taking security responsibility. These are things they want to do. And these are things that have an impact on customers and the business, right? And then there's things that can be automated. Developer experience is like achieving both of those goals. Take the highest impact things and help them do it more effectively. Take the lower impact things that have to be done and automate it, right? And then you iterate on that so that, you know, your most valuable resources, developers, can drive the biggest impact to your business without losing sight of all the other things that need to be done, right?
48:04So finding that balance, I think, is super important. And without kind of focus on developer experience, you can't achieve that. What's encouraging is more and more companies now seem to have like a dedicated title for developer experience. There's a dedicated budget for developer experience. So companies are recognizing that, hey, by focusing on developer experience, you can get a very clear ROI. But driving much more kind of quality code in business output while keeping developers happy so they don't lose, you know, you don't lose them to your competition. Yeah, and this is actually something I would like to take to our audience now.
48:39So how many through a raise of hands have ever heard, usually this comes from a non-engineering person, but have ever heard the statement, I don't understand why we invest in DevX? Have you ever heard that statement? Wow, no one has never heard that. Oh, I've got Tara in the back. Thank you, Tara. Tara, did you successfully navigate that situation and make the argument for DevX? And if so, would you like to come share how you did that? God, I have so many hot takes right now, so I'm trying to focus on this particular question. So, you know, whether you call it developer experience, developer productivity, back in the day we called it, you know, the build release team or the infrastructure team or the platform team, right?
49:17It's the act of supporting the ecosystem and the environment within which a developer works has had many names over the years. And as someone who has done almost entirely this work, most of the time I've had to justify existence because, you know, I'm listening to Dharmesh. You know, it's like, oh, look at the developers focusing on the right thing. How do you define the right thing, I think, is the interesting thing. And so if a platform team, infrastructure team, DevX team is able to be a multiplier and you can show the data that supports that, then that becomes a really easy argument, which is why, you know, things like these reports come out.
49:53I think it's increasingly less of an issue. but for the first 20 years of my career was absolutely an issue and what you had to show every year when budget season came around is what value add are you contributing so I will pause there otherwise I will totally derail your whole conversation yeah I appreciate it that's wonderful so I'd actually like to ask both of you if someone were investing into DevEx today where would you recommend they start? I would say always start with measuring but don't stop there find your best way to measure where it's like I'm a strong believer in quantitative metrics.
50:29I would say like when you're only based on qual, I would give this analogy of like a sales leader coming into a staff meeting, imagine sales leader coming into a staff meeting and saying, I don't need the empiric metrics around my funnel in sales. I don't need to know how much like SQLs, opportunities, customers I have. I'm just basing myself on what the reps are telling me. So I think the same thing needs to happen in engineering. You gotta have improved data, and qualitative can definitely support it. So I would start with measuring, definitely, but it wouldn't stop there. Wouldn't stop there, because the most frustrating thing is to see the problems and not giving tools to fix that.
51:17Yeah, that's actually a great insight. I think I'll just move on to our next prediction, man, And that's, you know, it starts to get into how the roles of developers are likely to change over the coming years. We've talked a little bit tonight about how AI, Gen AI, machine learning stuff like that, that is becoming a thing that really all developers need to be focused on. So developers are going to be asked to have a broader skill set. There's going to be more emphasis on integrating AI and machine learning into applications, using various models. And many developers are going to need to become much more familiar with things like building, deploying, leveraging, monitoring AI models, and integrating them into applications, even if they don't specialize with these tools.
52:06And in fact, there's a lot of products that are coming out that are specifically for developers who aren't specialists in this. there's also we think maybe a good chance the productivity as a whole like is going to start to become a job function for people to the point where we may even see the rise of like devops engineers that like focus more on productivity like a productivity engineer for example and then the last two i actually added at your request or is i'm interested to see what you have to say about them. But, you know, two technologies that really seem to be becoming more commonplace at a pretty rapid rate are cloud-based IDEs and serverless technologies.
52:47So I know some of these get a little groan because we get some groans from people because they've tried these tools in the past and haven't been completely convinced. But, you know, more things are moving into the cloud. They're offering better integrations and debugging and collaboration. And then serverless is just making it easier to decouple development from the actual deployment services. So how do you think that, you know, developers' roles are going to change over the coming years? Yeah, so cloud-based ideas definitely are very interesting in the way they evolve. I actually want to focus on the roles that I see that I think are going to be new.
53:26So we talked about the fact that almost every engineer, Every developer would need to know how do I adopt AI, whether full stack, backend, whatever I do. Then I think that some two interesting roles over this one is the entire, like the thing about InfoSec. I think there's going to be people that specialize in InfoSec. I can see it right now in contracts that we have. Which one does it use? Where do you deploy them? How do we attack IP? How do we make sure that the models don't learn on the data we sent them? There's going to be a role of InfoSec specializing on AI. So that's one thing. And I think there's two interesting roles that I think are going to evolve.
54:14I think there's going to be an end of AI development. And if we build the right infrastructure for these people, they're going to be the people that are going to say, okay, here's where we're allowing agents to take a simple task out of a Jira queue and start working on them. And here's the policy where we're not allowing you to do it. Here is where we're allowing to find a bug and fix it automatically. And here's what we're not allowing you to do. So you're going to have a head of AI development that defines the policies, is implements them. And then you're going to have the practitioners that hopefully they have a product to do it with.
54:59They've kind of like write the rules, write the policies that says like maybe in this microservice, I'm allowing more, maybe in this microservice, um, I'm less permissive. So, I foresee like these two very, very interesting roles, the head of AI development and kind of the practitioner that does it day to day that are going And I don't know if they're going to seek inside a developer experience team or in other teams, but these are two very interesting roles that I can see. Maybe a slight different take is like full stack engineering. It was kind of a merger between front end, back end. I think in the next couple of years, full stack implies front end, back end, security scanning and engineering.
55:42It's like, you know, full stack engineer will expect to touch all those aspects. Right. And the second thing I see changing is even though engineers are not responsible for some of the downstream things when it comes to CICD selection, when it comes to observability tools, it comes to feature flagging tools, if you will, they still become heavy influencers. A lot of developers are trying these tools and influencing what the standard should be for other teams to standardize on. So a lot of purchase decisions within IT are going through the route of developers, trying them and influencing them. And the things developers do kind of encompasses a much larger exposure area, if you will.
56:23But you may ask, how do you do all that? It's because a lot of the work that they had to do, you know, can be automated now, which frees up time for them to do the more strategic work. that's great so i'm wondering from our audience by a show of hands again how many of you have put somebody whose job it is to lead your effort to work ai into your product either on the engineering or the product side yeah i see a couple hands back there do either of you want to share your opinion absolutely so we well it's for us people that already do with ci cd so we have kind of two facets of that one we look at how we can improve the workflow for our customers right so how do we integrate capabilities into our product based on you know i was sparing the details of all that the other is actually that we have a large number of customers who are doing the same thing right so they're trying to figure out how to deliver software with you know ai capabilities everyone described backed by llms how do we help them build and validate those capabilities so they can confidently put them out into production.
57:30So like our whole ecosystem is changing. And I think now I'm going to just go on a tangent and talk about what you were talking about before. But like, as we look at this, I think a lot of what you're, what you're talking about here is like the next year, the next two years, right? It's like, how do we subtly change what we do from a software perspective, right? How do I get some code generated so I don't just write the code kind of thing. But one of the things that we spend a lot of time thinking about, given that we're in the flow of software delivery, is how does software fundamentally change five years from now, 10 years from now?
58:05There was a quote up there about 2040, right? Like, are we just generating the same programming languages that we were writing ourselves in 2024? I don't think so. I think we'll construct software in entirely different ways that we haven't reasoned about yet. And so if you're in the software delivery industry, you need to be thinking about that. Not just like, can I write code faster because I have a coding assistant? But do we write code? Like, is that how we give machine instructions? When the machines are generating the instructions and the machines are receiving the instructions, why are we writing it in a programming language designed for humans, right?
58:41And what happens when, can you just link? Like right now we ask a model, can you please generate a webpage so that if someone hits this URL, this webpage will be returned? Why don't we tell them the model when someone hits that URL, return a web page that looks like this, right? Like, why are we writing code at that point? I don't know what the answer is to that question, but I think there's much more interesting problems five years out and 10 years out than there are in the next 12 months. So we're thinking about all of them. That's my answer. Yeah, and it's great that you can have that long-term insight, too.
59:14You know, it's, I think, very valuable to have. So, yeah, so that brings us to our last prediction that we have. And this is actually one that I added to this list because it's come up in a couple of conversations I've had on Dev Interrupted, specifically one with Burns Rucker here that should be coming out next month in January. And that's the rise of this concept of citizen developers. And specifically, I think you're going to see non-technical and less technical people start to play more technical roles within your organization. Low code, no code. These platforms have been around for a while.
59:49Usually when I bring them up, audiences like this roll their eyes and think, oh, that'll never happen. It's not going to work for us. But these platforms are continuing to evolve and non-developers are being given more and more capabilities to deploy applications, integrate with various systems, with APIs and databases. And non-engineering teams are going to become less dependent on developers to produce things that sometimes actually go into production. It may not be your central app or service, but they are often building things that touch customers in some ways. And as a part of this, I think we're also likely to see quite a few more integrated tool collaboration tools.
1:00:33So, you know, expect more sophisticated tooling that blends developer tools and IDEs with more feature-rich capabilities. So kind of imagine like Google Docs for code. And this would allow teams of all technical levels to collaborate on code, to discuss changes, and resolve issues in environments that are more familiar with them. So I'd like to hear what you all think about this rise. We've already talked about senior developers and how they're likely to be impacted, but there's also going to be a lot of impacts to people who aren't nearly as advanced in their capabilities. So what do you think about that?
1:01:08Yeah, I think it didn't start yesterday. low code, no code is like, especially in internal IT applications, it's getting a lot of momentum. I think AI will accelerate it because if I have a challenge and I don't know what to write in the Apex, you know, trigger inside Salesforce and the custom objects, I will ask GPT and it will tell me the answer. So it will only accelerate like this type of problems. I think just for us, I've seen like three cases lately where we know the go-to-market sales stack where people coming, hey, how can we create a better architecture, et cetera, and all the challenges that we know that are going to come with people that are working with low-code, no-code.
1:01:58I even had Lior, the VP of finances here, saying, hey, can we get somebody to integrate Zapier to another system, et cetera. It's happening all over the place. I think the two challenges that it will bring, number one, it will create a lot of shadow IT, not just a vetted apps that you can't use. Even if it's apps that you can use, you might use them extensively and give them more access that you want to give them. So that's one problem. And the second problem, it will create, unless you put a lot of energy into it and treat it almost like as you know regular development and major technical debt i can see companies that have broken salesforce architecture and the price they pay on the speed of rotomarket operations or others is big so it is interesting it is going to accelerate and the problem is going to get bigger in many ways we kind of seen this before if you remember like 10 years ago it used to be that that any company that was getting started had to first spend$10 million on getting a data center by servers.
1:03:11And then cloud came along and you're like, oh, I can build an application on AWS in a matter of, you know, months and, you know, for one-tenth the cost, right? And then the focus shifted to software engineering. Now the same thing seems to be happening here. Now it feels like, hey, software developers can get the first application going. You need a citizen developer who can build it. A product manager can use a natural language interface and get some prototype of a product they can test with the customer. And we're seeing this happen. I've never seen companies that are 5, 10 people who get the first product out in six months and get to like$2 million in revenue across 100 customers.
1:03:49You're like, wow, this is crazy. And I think the trend it's pointing to is that it's becoming much easier to generate logical blocks of code using AI and automate the pull request merges and downstream delivery of that code and ultimately test with customers much faster. So this trend is going to continue. And as a result of that, I think the emphasis of software is going to focus a lot more on customer delight, you know, the user experience, time to value. But I think it definitely accelerates the pace of innovation. The same way we saw cloud accelerate the pace of, you know, company launches 10 years ago.
1:04:30Yeah, and I think one thing that sometimes gets overlooked that's really critical in this is that when you have people getting involved in the development process who don't have a lot of experience doing it, they aren't familiar at all with the processes that a typical development team works. So they may not even know things as simple as like, PR should be smaller because they're easier to review, right? Like, so there's actually a level of just normalizing that has to happen often with when you have large, and we've seen this with larger companies we've spoken to where they hire, you know, large numbers of developers straight out of college who maybe come from less technical backgrounds and just some of the most basic practices that developers normalize pretty quickly from maybe just a year or two experience these people have almost no awareness of so you know being able to like establish norms around how what we expect in our code making sure that you also use the same tools that you use for your development stats even if it's low code it should still be run through your ci cne system and have a qa process and all the various typical things that would come along with software development but you're often often dealing with the group of people that really don't have a lot of experience with those things and i think that has to be accounted for yeah it's even like most of the code you develop in salesforce and in these it applications it's not even like i'm maintained in you know in source control or it's local and to the environments.
1:05:57I know there's companies who are trying to solve this problem, but yeah, the practices and the methodologies are behind. Yeah, so those are our predictions for today. And unfortunately, we don't have time for a Q &A because we're a little behind our schedule. But Ori, Dharmesh, I want to thank you for coming in today. So if you all can give him a round of applause. Thank you very much.
From the publisher
Live from San Francisco, Dev Interrupted explores the future of developer productivity with Ori Keren (CEO, LinearB) and Dharmesh Thakker (General Partner, Battery Ventures). The conversation, recorded before a live audience in San Francisco, examines the exciting possibilities and potential challenges of AI-powered tools, from code completion and review to the more advanced agentic AI.
Moderated by Ben Lloyd Pearson, this episode captures the excitement of the event, including audience Q&A and feedback. Ori and Dharmesh share their insights on how these trends will shape the future of software development over the next 12 to 24 months, offering predictions and practical advice for engineering teams and leaders. Discover how these shifts will impact your work and the broader tech industry.
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