Breaking Down the China Tariff Pause: What It Means for the Economy & Markets

0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human.

0:31No, I am not your guru. Back then, I lied to everybody. They have had this case for 30 years. I'm going back to my hometown to uncover the truth. Listen to The Red Weather on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This show contains information subject to, but not limited to personal takes, rumors, not-so-accurate stats, and plenty more. What's up, man? This your boy, Nell Green, from the Broken Play Podcast. Look, it's the end of the season. The playoffs are here. But guess what? It ain't the end of your season. You can always tune in with Broken Play Podcast with Nav Green on the Black Effect Podcast Network.

1:10Not a team who ain't going to the playoffs. They're chief. It's time to rebuild. Listen to Broken Play with Nav Green from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. A lot of people think podcasts about work are boring. And sure, they definitely can be. But understanding a professional's routine shows us how they achieve their success little by little, day after day. It's like banking with PNC Bank. It might seem boring to save, plan, and make calculated decisions with your bank. But keeping your money boring is what helps you live a more happily fulfilled life.

1:49PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865. Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a service mark of the PNC Financial Service Group, Inc. PNC Bank, National Association Member FDIC.

2:29partners square makes it easy for them to take payments manage inventory and run their business with confidence all from one simple system if you're a business owner or even just thinking about launching something soon square is hands down one of the best tools out there to help you start run and grow it's not just about payments it's about giving you time back so you can focus on what matters most ready to see how square can transform your business visit square.com backslash go backslash eyl to learn more that's square.com backslash go backslash eyl don't wait don't hesitate let square handle the back end so you can keep pushing your vision forward so let's get into this tariffs conversation so last night early this morning they announced that um 90 day pause on china tariffs that was a big one i mean they had tariffs across the whole world but they dropped at least had 90 day pause for most countries but china was the one that they really everybody was waiting on to see what was going to happen obviously is the biggest economy in the world um and it was raised the tariffs were raised to 145 and it was lowered to 10 so for 90 days um what an additional 20 for any products related to fentanyl um so most products are 20 or 10 if it's a fentanyl related product which is like a lab anything that has something to do with chemicals labs things of that nature then it's an additional 20 which will bring the tarot to 30 but for most most products it would be it's a 10 um rate across the board for at least a 90 day period and then after 90 days we'll see what happens after that um so where we started with this before before anything even though in the Biden administration was around three percent yeah so effectively we went up seven percent which is not bad because seven percent it might sound like a little bit but it adds up and you're talking about billions of dollars so possibly trillions of dollars so seven percent is is not a number to just sneeze at for sure but it's a it's a big difference from 145 so someone say okay well you know it was done intentionally um to raise the price to actually lower the price now i just think that it could have possibly done in a bet could have been done in a better manner because absolutely even just looking at stocks we're still not at the point where we where we were but there's a lot of other things that got affected in his real life businesses and i was talking to a business owner the other day who actually sells merchandise and they was they had their products sitting for a month in china because they couldn't bring it over to america because 145 percent tariffs was too too much so just the delay in 30 days could really hurt somebody's business as far as shipping and have it not having product on the store so there's been a lot of people that's actually it's been a lot of real pain that's been that's already been done within a four-week time frame um where i think that if potentially he would have just said 10 percent from the beginning he might have been able just to push that through because it is already at three percent so if you just say okay look we i have a new policy in place and we're going to raise our tariffs seven percent and now instead of three percent it's going to be ten percent i don't think that that would have been something that would have been too difficult to get through but i just feel like you didn't have to go about it as far as putting tariffs on the whole world and then erasing the tariffs on the whole world and then raising tariffs on China from 50 to 80 to 125 to 145 back down to 10 that's a 145 to 10 is almost a 97 % decrease so that's tremendous drop in tariffs right which also even negotiating later on like how do you even get taken seriously when and within a month you lowered 97 % but I still think that it's a good thing that they did as far as the administration because it's not helpful for the American economy or the Chinese economy to have a trade war going on so stocks rally on news of this obviously everybody's been happy about the news because everybody was waiting for some level of compromise on this deal but what does this mean for the broader economy and the broader stock market going forward?

7:10I think you broke it down perfectly to have a penalty of 145 % and then go to 10. It goes to show that the plan was not thought out well enough. And I get standing for my being a parent. If I tell my son, you can't play PlayStation for two years, and then in three days, I'm like, hey, bring all your friends over and have a Fortnite party. He's not going to take me serious. And I think while we're fighting for America to keep its edge with bricks closing that gap, I think we're laughing stock right now. To be very honest, if you're going to play hardball and you step down in one month, while it's great for the market, I don't know how much he's going to need to do to recover what was lost.

7:56and i'll say this i do think because i don't want to be fair here and i know we've been tremendously hard on on trump and his administration but he's he's doing some things that i think are helpful it's just hard to champion him too much because every he does something positive and then he says like white people in south africa are having a genocide and you want to bring refugees like you know it's just it's very difficult one step forward and three back. Yeah, he's a very erratic with his behavior. He does very questionable things, but he's done some good things for sure. And I feel like there was a need to tighten up trade deals.

8:33For sure. Especially if you're losing. There's a need. There's a need for it. So he's not wrong in his thought process of getting more for America. But like I said, I just feel like it was an unnecessary whiplash that we still haven't fully recovered yet. We don't know the long-term effects of it and just to do this and to abort mission so quickly, you can't really say it's a win because if the goal is to bring manufacturing jobs back to America, 10 % is not going to do that. At all. If it's 10%, if that's the number that we're going to stay at, that's not drastically bringing all of these manufacturing jobs back to America, which we knew that was a sham.

9:18But that's not a win for America. In my opinion, it's more money that's brought in. That's positive for sure. But if it's like a blockbuster, okay, we broke China and we created a new global infrastructure with trade. How? You cut everybody's tariffs across the board to basically nothing. The biggest three that makes the most difference in our trading partners is Mexico, China, and Canada. You cut Mexico and China. I mean, you cut Mexico and Canada early to relatively nothing. Now you cut China to relatively nothing. So where's the win?

10:00You done get thrown out of office. I mean, I think there was a consensus. Even when we had people come on, it was a consensus of we agree what he's trying to do, how he's doing it. The execution is poor. Most people didn't agree with it. I think there's some merit to what you're saying, Ian, inside of the laughingstock piece. Because even though they are suspended, there's still this 90-day thing. We've been watching this 90-day, 75-day thing go on since January when it was TikTok. And then it gets moved back and it's another 90. So what happens at the end of this 90 days? right like we can keep doing this but again and seeing the market rally like it did today yeah there's plenty of optimism but there's still a slight bit of uncertainty right because if you met in geneva for three straight days and you ironed out a deal why is it a 90-day deal why it's only good for three months why so when we get into the summer months and it's like all right they did something that they were we didn't like or they did vice versa we can renege or it or we can go back to the 145.

11:12It's just like this level of uncertainty is really unnecessary. If you're going to come together for a deal, then make the deal. Now we have to watch the clock and say, all right, well, what happens now? What happens with semis directly? Does that get suspended as well? That tariff that you were going to specifically put on that sector, I know you just signed in the farmer legislation. What does that look like? There's all these executive orders that get these deadlines and then when the deadline comes, maybe we'll extend it again, which leaves more uncertainty, which means in business, what are we really doing?

11:46I think to his credit, it's going to be extremely difficult to work out a comprehensive deal in three days. You stop the bleeding because there's obviously pain on both sides. I don't think that just to rebuttal, I don't even think it was these three days. I think that these negotiations have been going on. They said it hasn't. We can only go on what they tell us. So they said that this is the first time that they actually had face-to-face negotiations. That's what they said. That's what both countries said. But that's what, to that, he was saying that, remember three weeks ago they were saying, we're negotiating with China and China said, no, we never spoke to them.

12:18Right, exactly. So you can't, so assuming that they just started negotiating, real negotiations this week, you can't negotiate a deal in three days. That's hard. To negotiate a comprehensive deal that is going to be years in three days. So I think that they did the right thing as far as a 90 day pause, because it was better to do this than to negotiate for three months and just have this turmoil last for three months. So I'm not necessarily I don't think that that's an irresponsible thing that he did as far as a 90 day situation. We'll see what happens after the 90 days. But at least they have three months to have comprehensive real negotiations to kind of figure out what the final deal.

12:57What's important is what the final deal looks like. If the final deal looks like then this, then, you know, know they kick the can down the road and they cause a lot of unnecessary pain for we'll see if that seven percent over the course of time was worth it maybe it is maybe seven percent what is going to be worth all of the pain that was caused in the last month i don't know only time will tell but i do feel that they did the right thing because they made a mistake to make the biggest thing in to life is to correct your mistakes everybody makes mistakes for sure they could have just dragged this this this dog down the road for months and just i feel like all right they screwed up they recognized that they screwed up and they said okay let's let's let's let's think this thing through cooler heads will prevail we'll see what happens in 90 days an illegal alien from guatemala charged with raping a child in massachusetts an ms13 gang member from el salvador accused of murdering a texas man a venezuelan charged with filming and selling child pornography in Michigan.

14:00These are just some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Kristi Noem, the United States Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over 100 ,000 illegal aliens have been arrested. If you are here illegally, you're next. You will be fined nearly$1 ,000 a day, imprisoned and deported. You will never return. But if you register using our CBP Home app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally. Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws, border, and families will be protected.

14:43Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security. This is Ryder Strong, and I have a new podcast called The Red Weather. In 1995, my neighbor, Anna Traynor, disappeared from a commune. It was nature and trees and praying and drugs. So no, I am not your guru. And back then, I lied to everybody. They have had this case for 30 years. I'm going back to my hometown to uncover the truth. Listen to The Red Weather on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

15:26end of the season. The playoffs are here. But guess what? It ain't the end of your season. You can always tune in with Broken Play Podcast with Nav Green on the Black Effect Podcast Network. Not a team who ain't going to the playoffs. It's time to rebuild. Listen to Broken Play with Nav Green from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or whatever you get your podcast. You know, we always say new year, new me, but real change starts on the inside. It It starts with giving your mind and your spirit the same attention you give your goals. Hey, everybody. It's Michelle Williams, host of Checking In on the Black Effect Podcast Network.

16:03And on my podcast, we talk mental health, healing, growth, and everything you need to step into your next season, whole and empowered. New year, real you. Listen to Checking In with Michelle Williams from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.