Investor Daily: Are Tech Stocks Overvalued? & Why is Everything Falling...

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3:23Is everything overvalued and why is everything falling? Things are falling because they're coming back to the prices where they should be.

3:36I'll get into it later, but this is going to be the third year that we had more than 20 % return in the market three years in a row. Shadi, you brought this up last year, right? the last time that happened was in the dot-com era. 98, 99, 2000. People are front running the gains because they know a corrective measure will be taken sometime next year in 2028. This is why Sam is trying to clean up his image and his kerfuffle that he had last week with Brad Gerstner so that IPO exit will be okay. But there's been a lot of overvaluation. and overhyped talk about AI because everyone is trying to squeeze in the gains they need in to get them through the next two or three years for the downturn that we're going to have.

4:33So are we overvalued? Yes. We'll talk about Peter Thiel and NVIDIA and all that in a second, but the market has run up a lot and it's just correcting to where it should be and people are panicking. And most people are panicking because they bought at levels where they shouldn't be buying bitcoin nvidia oracle uh oscar health everything was bought at two high of a price palantir as well and when the front running ends people begin to take profits and as rashad i love when you always say there's nothing wrong with taking profit but when you see buffett start to ease into google for the first time in history on the exit apple and google are going to be the new bonds.

5:19Apple is projected to give 26 to 30 % return over the next five years. It's 5 to 6 % a year. That's the new bond market. It's a haven of safety. The market will ultimately be okay, but some of these valuations are absolutely insane. And I told you to go for the price. Yeah, yeah. I agree. I think, yes, some of these companies, I see somebody in the chat put Palantir in terms of valuations are just, I mean, It has run to a place where it almost feels uncomfortable. I think the issue is that earnings has kept pace with this type of growth. And at some point that has to decelerate. We'll talk about this more in the show as we're looking forward to Wednesday.

6:08When the market is priced to perfection, perfection won't be good enough. right so even you know this goliath that's going to report and how it can shift the market yep if it does well and it has future god it still might not be enough yeah it may not be enough it still might not be enough and that they will be dominant and the companies that are around it the metas of the world and i know everybody's like what about meta the metas will be fine microsoft will be fine apple will be fine but there will be some others that uh the rest of you here's a safe way to put it right if nvidia sneezes some companies will have pneumonia y 'all will have covet 2.0 20 right like it's that type of scenario in these type of markets when all indicators are pointing to all-time highs and you look at the statistics and everybody keeps bringing up the dot-com bubble i don't think a crash is imminent but i will say about The valuations have gone up pretty.

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11:07Listen to How to Money on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. essentially to a point where it's like, all right, we need to take a deeper look at it. But we'll see. I mean, we thought something like this could happen this year, right? When we're talking about can earnings keep up to the valuations? It happened in 24, right? Which is why we were over 20%. It's happening here and we're pacing toward another 20 % year. We'll see what happens in the first quarter of 26. And that's why Wednesday is so important. when you're talking about NVIDIA, you're not just talking about AI.

11:42You're talking about infrastructure. You're talking about cloud. You're talking about a lot of different sectors. What that future guidance looks like into Q1, Q2 of 2026 will be very, very important to seeing how this next year is going to go. This reminds me of the first year. Shout to Kyrie. He hit the shout of a Steph, right? Cool. You can only go into the game-winning bag so often. So I think NVIDIA would do well in earnings But if the entire market is relying Upon blockbuster earnings for one Company for equal Weighted S &P funds to do Well That's not good Have we seen this before? Yep 2022.com era We've seen this a couple times Even the Mag 7 Because it feels like four years ago, we were just saying this.

12:38He just took the words right out of my mouth. I was like, this is how we used to talk about Apple. Like, Apple fights for us, and we needed to beat earnings, and it's so dominant, and we needed to do that. And even if it's great, it's not great enough. And now people talk rotation, and it's just another Mag 7 that's now rotated into that spot, and now it's Nvidia. And even when Teal says that he's selling out his positions, he didn't just leave the Mag 7 out. he said we're going to park it in two other Max 7's you know what I mean and so it's just interesting to see I think like I said I think we both are in the green San Nividi is going to have a great quarter and Jensen's kind of got ahead of it hasn't he we're talking about 500 billion these are not numbers to sneeze at he want to say I'm not there don't put me in the same category as y 'all other little CRM Yeah, we are not the same.

13:32$500 billion is different. That's more than the market cap of, I think, everything outside of the top 30 companies in the world. This is not the same. We've got to have an honest conversation, though. There shouldn't be this much. NVIDIA is my pick, my baby. I love it. The entire U.S. economy and stock market cannot be relying upon one company to deliver blockbuster returns to move up the GDP and defeat China. there was apple four years ago and even that stress uh didn't allow tim cook to create what he needed to create fast enough because he had the weight of the world on the shoulders mistakes get made when not only are you leading hq looking over product line but then you have the president saying hey i really need you to hit a home run right now for me it's too much pressure I mean, would you rather have any other company be in this position?

14:34I feel like this is the company that if there was one that was primed to be in this position, this is it. The fact that they're doing this and they don't have China, right? Like they don't have that market, which will be part of this. We'll see a full year of Blackwell coming up. Yeah. We understand the dominance. We watched all the other hyperscalers in the Max 7s report before them, which is very strategic on their part. I looked at the numbers, bro. Everybody's CapEx did not go down. Everybody's CapEx went up, which talks about the demand and we know where they're shopping. And so if there was going to be a company, it would be this one.

15:12NVIDIA will be fine. Metal will be fine. Microsoft will be fine. Google. Dynasty of the ecosystem. Voltron, right? Build community. But the rest of the market, I'm like, even if we look at quantum and this is not my moment to say, Hey, to beat up on these stocks, ARQQ is down 43%. IONQ is down 39%. QMCD is down 40%. RGTI is down 46%. I'm looking at the rest of the market start to pull back 20 to 25 % for some quality companies. That's not a good sign. Ernest, what's up? You ever walk into a small business and everything just works like The checkout is fast, the receipts are digital, tipping is a breeze, and you're out the door before the line even builds.

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17:50NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. Mind Games, a new podcast exploring NLP, a.k.a. neurolinguistic programming. Is it a self-help miracle, a shady hypnosis scam, or both? Listen to Mind Games on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And the winner of the iHeart Podcast Award is... You can decide who takes home the 2026 iHeart Podcast Awards Podcast of the Year by voting at iHeartPodcastAwards.com now through February 22nd. See all the nominees and place your vote at iHeartPodcastAwards.com. Audible is a proud sponsor of the Audible Audio Pioneer Award.

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