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Earn Your Leisure Podcast Summary
Episode Title
Investor Daily: Why Novo Nordisk Can’t Beat Eli Lilly - The Pharma Drug War
Episode Overview In this episode of *Earn Your Leisure*, hosts Rashad Bilal and Ian Dunlap analyze the recent setbacks faced by Novo Nordisk, particularly in light of its competition with Eli Lilly. The discussion highlights reasons behind Novo's stock decline and its implications for investors.
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Key Topics Discussed
- Novo Nordisk's Stock Decline
- Novo Nordisk has seen a substantial drop in stock value, losing almost 75% of its gains and returning to pre-2021 levels.
- The hosts argue that this decline is not a buying opportunity.
- Comparison with Eli Lilly
- Rashad Bilal compares the rivalry between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to Meta vs. Snap.
- Eli Lilly is characterized as having superior innovation and management compared to Novo.
- The hosts note that Eli Lilly is likened to "the Nvidia of healthcare," emphasizing its dominance and innovation in the sector.
- Impact of Missed Drug Opportunities
- Novo Nordisk missed a significant opportunity with an Alzheimer's drug, which compounded its stock troubles.
- The comparison of margins and performance highlights Eli Lilly's strengths over Novo.
- GLP-1 Drugs and Market Challenges
- Discussion on the challenges facing GLP-1 drugs, particularly concerning sustainability and competition.
- Ian Dunlap elaborates on the pharmaceutical business cycle and the difficulties non-American firms face in a US-centric market.
- Skepticism Towards Novo's Future
- The hosts express doubts about the long-term viability of Novo's weight loss drugs.
- They explore the historical volatility of weight loss drugs and the short product cycles associated with them.
- Caution for Investors
- They advise potential investors to be cautious and consider the broader context of Novo's business model and the competitive landscape.
- The conversation emphasizes the importance of understanding the pharmaceutical market dynamics before making investment decisions.
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Key Takeaways
- Do Not Invest in Novo Nordisk: Rashad Bilal and Ian Dunlap strongly advise against viewing Novo's stock decline as a buying opportunity.
- Innovation Matters: Companies like Eli Lilly that showcase continuous innovation and effective management are likely to outperform their competitors.
- Market Dynamics: Investors need to be aware of the specific challenges faced by pharmaceutical companies, especially those not based in the US.
- Long-term Viability of Products: The sustainability of drug lines, particularly in weight loss, is uncertain, which raises red flags for potential investors.
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Conclusion This episode provides a detailed analysis of the current state of the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on the competitive dynamics between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Rashad Bilal and Ian Dunlap deliver insights that blend financial analysis with industry trends, making it a valuable listen for those interested in healthcare investing.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human.
0:31Such good feelings. Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you? I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused. Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. Mind Games, a new podcast exploring NLP, a.k.a. neurolinguistic programming. Is it a self-help miracle, a shady hypnosis scam, or both? Listen to Mind Games on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A new year doesn't ask us to become someone new. It invites us back home to ourselves. I'm Mike Della Rocha, host of Sacred Lessons, a space for men to pause, reflect, and heal.
1:11This year, we're talking honestly about mental health, relationships, and the patterns we're ready to release. If you're looking for clarity, connection, and healthier ways to show up in your life, Sacred Lessons is here for you. Listen to Sacred Lessons with Mike Della Rocha on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:57podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hello. Hello. All my people. What's up? It's Questlove. Recently, I had the opportunity to sit down with the one and only ASAP Rocky. He reflects on his journey from Harlem roots to global icon status and discovering the hip hop origin of his name. The ledge was on the TV. Rakim had the bucket hat can go join on. I'm possibly like, that's Rakim. That's who you named after. I just, damn. I swear. Listen to the Questlove show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. A lot of people think podcasts about work are boring.
2:42And sure, they definitely can be. But understanding a professional's routine shows us how they achieve their success little by little, day after day. It's like banking with PNC Bank. It might seem boring to save, plan, and make calculated decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is what helps you live a more happily fulfilled life. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865. Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a service mark of the PNC Financial Service Group, Inc. PNC Bank, National Association member, FDIC. Novo is going in the opposite direction. So Novo almost has a 52-week low. So what is the deal with Novo?
3:29Is this the opportunity to buy Novo? Hell no.
3:35Harold might have looked like Jordan when Jordan was out of the league playing baseball because David Stern made him sit down. But when Jordan came back, Harold might have shot the hair on his family because I don't know what I'm watching. But no. Novo, they missed on an Alzheimer's drug. And that's the crazy part that's interesting. they've fallen this much and isn't Novo's net margin or gross margin 89 % like how do you have a gross margin that wide and that stock does that no Lily's a one of one company and I have no bias towards any of these but
4:13Lily's just is a better company this is like almost comparing Meta versus Snap I like Evan I like that they've got glasses and when the girls have to look for it, it's fucking eight years ago, it was fire. But they're not meta. Novo's not lily. It's not. I think if you look at it, executive management, drug, the results of the drugs, the pipeline that they have for the next five years, the return on assets, return on equity, there's no point where you look at Novo and say these two are the same. They had a great moment. great but it's over with i'm not saying that the company's dead they're not going to be delisted but would they ever be eli lily or amgen no no yes it's um doesn't look great it doesn't look great they you know ozempic was a thing it almost became the band-aid of adhesives.
5:15Right? But you don't have a moat on that drug. What if mind control is real? If you could control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have? Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car? When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings. Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you? I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused. Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. NLP, aka Neuro Linguistic Programming, is a blend of hypnosis, linguistics, and psychology. Fans say it's like finally getting a user manual for your brain.
5:59It's about engineering consciousness. Mind Games is the story of NLP, its crazy cast of disciples, and the fake doctor who invented it at a New Age commune and sold it to guys in suits. He stood trial for murder and got acquitted. The biggest mind game of all? NLP might actually work. This is wild. Listen to Mind Games on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Run a business and not thinking about podcasting? Think again. More Americans listen to podcasts than ad-supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined.
6:38So whatever your customers listen to, they'll hear your message. Plus, only iHeart can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio. Think podcasting can help your business? Think iHeart. Streaming, radio, and podcasting. Let us show you at iHeartAdvertising.com. That's iHeartAdvertising.com. A new year doesn't mean erasing who you were. It means honoring what you've survived and choosing how you want to grow. It means giving ourselves permission to feel what we've been holding and knowing that it's okay to ask for help. I'm Mike Dallarocha, host of Sacred Lessons. This podcast is a space for men to talk openly about mental health, grief, relationships, and the patterns we inherit, but don't have to repeat.
7:23Here, we slow down. We listen. We learn how vulnerability becomes strength and how healing happens in community, not in isolation. If you're ready to let go of what no longer serves you and step into the year with clarity, compassion, and purpose, Sacred Lessons is your companion on your healing journey. Listen to Sacred Lessons with Mike DeLaRocha on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow Sacred Lessons with Mike DeLaRocha and start listening on the free iHeart radio app today. Hey there, this is Dr. Jesse Mills, director of the men's clinic at UCLA Health and host of the Mailroom podcast.
8:03Each January, guys everywhere make the same resolutions. Get stronger, work harder, fix what's broken. But what if the real work isn't physical at all? To kick off the new year, I sat down with Dr. Steve Poulter, a psychologist with over 30 years experience helping men unpack shame, anxiety, and emotional pain they were never taught to name. In a powerful two-part conversation, we discuss why men aren't emotionally bulletproof, why shame hides in plain sight, and how real strength comes from listening to yourself and to others. Guys who are toxic, they're immature, or they've got something they just haven't resolved.
8:38Once that gets resolved, then there comes empathy and some compassion. If you want this to be the year you stop powering through pain and start understanding what's underneath, listen to The Mailroom on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your favorite shows. New year, new goals, and in this economy, a better money plan is more necessary than ever. I am Matt. And I'm Joel. We are from the How to Money podcast. And every week we help you to spend smarter, save more, and make sense of what's going on out there. If you want 2026 to be the year you finally feel in control of your money, we're here to give you the tools and advice to help you make it happen.
9:18Listen to How to Money on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. So when Zipbound comes out, other GLPs come out, lesser known, even some white-labeled GLP comes out, that's going to cut into your business model. And again, when you have an administration that is hellbound on making sure that American companies thrive, and you are not an American company, well, every fifth ad, when you watch Good Morning America, when you watch the Today Show, is going to be that American company. Tomorrow, when you watch Good Morning America, I couldn't even be like, damn, Troy was right.
9:57They're going to make sure that they're going to promote Lilly and because it has obviously a superior product, but it has the motive of having to not rely on one thing. The Alzheimer's pill, this is like the third, I feel like this is like the third time that this has not worked. Not worked, yep. I don't know how many chances they're going to get to not have it work. The stock is now trading. at the five years ago, it was at in 2021, it was trading at $42. And the stock is currently sitting here five years later at$45. Had a crazy run up, obviously, during the GLP phase up to $145,$147. And now we're right back down to where we were in 2021.
10:41Going to be tough. I would definitely not invest in this. If you look since inception, when the IPO, with their all-time lowest$2.74. Since the high, they're almost have given up 75 % of all those gains. I put in Stock Club earlier 10 reasons why they have underperformed, but I'll give three here. The expectations for the GLP-1 was too high. The manufacturing bottlenecks and capacity limits were another issue. And then also, too, like outside of Lilly, the weight loss drug cycle of boom and bust has always been a short cycle of wins and extreme losses. Like if you go back to the ally drug, like this category of weight loss drugs has always had some issues, whether it was with ephedrine or heart issues or gut issues.
11:33This isn't a sustainable product line that will work long enough to allow you to build a business around it to be able to be okay. No. And then weight loss flows after one to two years. So in the best case scenario, after two years, it's the end of the product cycle. So the lifetime customer value is lower than every other competitor that you have for other drugs that are doing incredibly well. Like Lily is damn near the NVIDIA of health care. You're fighting a monster that cannot be defeated. This might not be one of those situations where number two is actually a good thing. they already announced that they're trying to get GLPs to be a part of healthcare plans.
12:18They've already we talked about this a few weeks ago. They're dropping the price costs over the first six months. They're trying to do all the things. I think when you have a pill form, because that's the thing, right? Who gets to the GLP pill first? And when you have a pill form fail for a different drug well that puts uh that red flag hey this is another pill that has failed for them that's failed for them who will get to it first my assumption would probably be lily gets to the pill form first and that that changes a lot of things and if they can get the right price obviously put that apart of people's health care plans earners what's up you ever walk into a small business and everything just works like the checkout is fast the receipts are digital tipping is a breeze and you're out the door before the line even builds odds are they're using square we love supporting businesses that run on square because it just feels seamless whether it's a local coffee shop a vendor at a pop-up market or even one of our merch partners square makes it easy for them to take payments manage inventory and run their business with confidence all from one simple system one of the things we love most is seeing neighborhood businesses level up There's this West Indian spot right in our community that started with a small takeout counter.
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14:10It's about giving you time back so you can focus on what matters most. Ready to see how Square can transform your business? Visit square.com backslash go backslash E-Y-L to learn more. That's square.com backslash go backslash E-Y-L. Don't wait. Don't hesitate. Let Square handle the back end so you can keep pushing your vision forward. What if mind control is real? If you could control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have? Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car? When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings. Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you?
14:48I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused. Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. Mind Games, a new podcast exploring NLP, a.k.a. neurolinguistic programming. Is it a self-help miracle, a shady hypnosis scam, or both? Listen to Mind Games on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A new year doesn't ask us to become someone new. It invites us back home to ourselves. I'm Mike Della Rocha, host of Sacred Lessons, a space for men to pause, reflect, and heal. This year, we're talking honestly about mental health, relationships, and the patterns we're ready to release.
15:30If you're looking for clarity, connection, and healthier ways to show up in your life, Sacred Lessons is here for you. Listen to Sacred Lessons with Mike Delaroach on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Joel. And Matt. From HowToMoney. If your New Year's resolution is to finally get your finances in shape, we've got your back. Prices, they're still high. And the economy is all over the place. But 2026 is the year for you to get intentional and make real progress. That's right. Yeah. Each week, we break down what's happening with your money, the most important issues to focus on, and the small moves that make a big difference.
16:07Kick off the year with confidence. Listen to How to Money on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This season on Dear Chelsea with me, Chelsea Handler, we've got some incredible guests like Kumail Nanjiani. Let's start with your cat. How is she? She is not with us. Okay, great, great, great way to start. Maybe you will cry. Ross Matthews. You know what kids always say to me? Are you a boy or a girl? Oh my God. All the time. That's so funny. I know. So I try to butch it up for kids so they're not confused. Yeah, but you're butching it up. It's basically like Doris Day.
16:41No, I turn into Bea Arthur. Listen to these episodes of Dear Chelsea on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hello, hello, all my people. What's up? It's Questlove. Recently, I had the opportunity to sit down with the one and only A$AP Rocky. He reflects on his journey from Harlem roots to global icon status and discovering the hip-hop origin of his name. The ledge was on the TV. Rakim had the bucket hat can-go join on. I'm possibly like, that's Rakim. That's who you named after. I just, damn, that f***er got swag. Listen to the Questlove show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
17:24This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.
From the publisher
In this Market Mondays clip, Rashad Bilal and Ian Dunlap dive deep into the recent struggles of Novo Nordisk and explain why the stock’s steep drop isn’t an opportunity to buy. They break down Novo’s missed Alzheimer’s drug, compare Novo's margins and performance to Eli Lilly, and discuss the key issues behind GLP-1 drugs that have led to Novo’s downfall. Rashad Bilal likens the Novo-Lilly rivalry to Meta vs. Snap, highlighting that Novo simply doesn’t have Lily’s innovation or executive management. With Novo giving up nearly 75% of its gains and falling back to pre-2021 levels, the hosts consider the company’s future and why Lily is “the Nvidia of healthcare”—an industry monster that’s hard to defeat. Ian Dunlap adds insight into the pharmaceutical business cycle, the challenges of non-American firms in a US-centric market, and why breakthroughs in pill-form GLP drugs and healthcare plan adoption give Lily the edge. Together, they explore why weight loss drugs may not provide sustainable growth for Novo and why savvy investors should be cautious. If you want an unfiltered, expert take on the pharma giants and what’s ahead for GLP-1 drug makers, watch this clip for real insights you won’t find anywhere else. *Hashtags:* #MarketMondays #NovoNordisk #EliLilly #PharmaStocks #Investing #WeightLossDrugs #GLP1 #HealthcareInvesting #StockMarketAnalysis #RashadBilal #IanDunlap
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