In short
Earn Your Leisure Podcast Episode Notes
Episode Title
Is It Time to Sell AMD?
Hosts
- Rashad Bilal
- Troy Millings
- Ian Dunlap
Episode Overview This episode focuses on the current state of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and discussions surrounding its investment potential. The hosts debate whether it is time to sell AMD shares, considering its recent performance, competition, and macroeconomic factors influencing the semiconductor industry.
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Key Discussions
- Current State of AMD
- AMD has historically been a favorite among investors, but recent market conditions have raised concerns.
- Ian Dunlap expresses a shift in perspective, suggesting AMD may no longer be among the top chip makers, akin to "losing its place on the Mount Rushmore of chip makers."
- Competitive Landscape
- Discussion of key competitors:
- Nvidia
- TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
- ASML
- Broadcom
- Qualcomm
- AMD's position is being challenged, especially by Nvidia's dominance in the GPU market.
- Investment Strategies
- Price Levels to Watch:
- Ian mentions pivotal price points ($53.16 and $25.82) for potential buying opportunities.
- The hosts agree that the semiconductor sector is experiencing bearish trends.
- Recommendations lean towards safer investment options such as index funds and ETFs, particularly citing the SMH ETF as a less risky alternative to individual stocks.
- Macroeconomic Factors
- The discussion includes the impact of tariffs and U.S. manufacturing policies on AMD and the semiconductor industry.
- The phrase "America First" in relation to chip production is explored, with AMD being one of the companies committing to producing GPUs in the U.S.
- Risks of Individual Stock Picking
- Rashad highlights the dangers of focusing investment on individual stocks, especially in volatile markets:
- AMD has seen a decline of nearly 60%, emphasizing the risks involved.
- The conversation suggests the importance of defensive investing strategies over aggressive stock picking.
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Key Takeaways
- AMD's Future: The company is at a critical juncture, with potential buying opportunities at specific price levels, but significant uncertainties remain.
- Defensive Investing: Prioritizing investments in index funds or ETFs over individual stocks can mitigate risks, especially in a bearish market.
- Sector Analysis: Keeping an eye on macroeconomic factors affecting the semiconductor industry is crucial for making informed investment decisions.
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Timestamps
- 0:00 - Introduction to AMD's Current Situation
- 0:39 - Competitive State of AMD within the Industry
- 2:13 - Price Targets & Technical Analysis
- 3:58 - Discussion on U.S. Chip Policy & Tariffs
- 5:00 - Risks Associated with Stock Picking vs. Index Funds
- 7:10 - Final Thoughts on Defensive Investing
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Conclusion This episode of the Earn Your Leisure podcast provides valuable insights into AMD's market position and investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics and adopting a defensive approach to investing. The hosts encourage listeners to remain informed and cautious, especially in uncertain economic times.
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Call to Action Listeners are encouraged to engage with the podcast by liking, commenting, and subscribing for more discussions on investing, stocks, and financial strategies. Suggestions for stock reviews are welcomed in the comments.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
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3:22AMD. Is it time to sell AMD?
3:30AMD has historically been one of my favorite companies of all time and before I was an NVIDIA fanboy AMD probably led that position. But I think it's time to have a conversation. If it's time to cut loose and I think yes. if AMD gets to$53.16 I would then want to reposition in but when I'm looking at an investment of course I'm always looking at to build like you said build a table right so who are the four in that space and if we're going to be honest AMD is not on Mount Rushmore of chipmakers anymore they have some considerable competition I'm not sure you said what who's on Mount Rushmore is it that's like the thing now who's the mount rushmore nvidia yeah tsm asml shit i brocon for sure qualcomm yeah no no oh you said qualcomm i said brocon oh brocon them too qualcomm better too if you're gonna be real all right cool that's fair amd is entering I don't want to say it, but Intel-ish like territory of a bear drop.
4:48So if I look, they've had seven negative months in a stock. So at this point, unless you're getting it at a historic low because now given the climate that we're in with the policies, tariffs, Trump versus Powell, the thing that is great about it is that we are entering generational buying opportunities but i don't think we've gotten there yet so 55 16 is one level that i do like it if it ever got to 25 dollars and 82 cent i would probably put a considerable amount of money there uh mid six figures probably but as of right now um i would not leg into amd until the market and global economy turns around well i guess i gotta appreciate that you didn't say they were dead I appreciate it.
5:40We'll take that. Of course not. Not dead. Just injured. This is bearish territory over the past 12 months. I'll leave with this. Before I had 1 ,000 shares in NVIDIA, AMD was the company that was my 1 ,000 shares. I sold some. I think we got down to like$113. Which was, all right, well, let's take profit. My buy-in for everybody was$75. We're approaching $75 here. And it's interesting you said the$55 range, which is crazy, because if you go out on the five-year chart and you look at the trend line, it makes a lot of sense why you said that. But yeah, it's below all of our EMAs that we talk about on Market Mondays, whether it's the 50-day, whether it's the 100-day, 200.
6:24On the yearly, the 400-day moving average was 78, 76. And so we're like floating right above, well, 113, I'm sorry, on the one-year. On the five-year chart, check this out. the 400 EMA is 78, 76. And so we're talking back to 2021. And if you look at that chart, you could be saying, all right, there's some room for optimism, right? In 2021, when it hit this low level or it touched that 400 EMA, we saw it bounce up. And then we saw it pull back in 2022. And so now we watched what happened in 2024 and that dropped now. And we're about to hit the 400 day again. Is there an uptrend? Well, I would feel confident about it if there wasn't so much uncertainty around semiconductors and especially what the president is doing um i guess the only bright news and we kind of talked about a little bit is when we're talking about america first in terms of chips they're the first company to step up and saying like we're going to be the first ones to make our gpu solely here in the united states i don't know what that's going to mean especially when the gpu market i mean it's going to be dominated by nvidia for the next five years they will be number two um and we kind of like talked about price points a little before we came on camera that would be to me the only way that they can break ground in that race for gpus is to have a price point that's affordable that makes sense to small cap to new business uh startups um in terms of gpu compute um so i still have the shares i still have some calls out to 2027 on them uh so we'll see what happens in the next few months when in in terms of the uncertainty with the semis.
8:03I know there's supposed to be a tariff coming on them. But yeah, if I'm doing it today, I like the level you said. 78 would be a level that it's all right. You know what? If I haven't invested in it before, this might be a good opportunity. But yeah, I can't see it going down to 25 for sure. If we get lower than 75, then we're dropping down to the 60s for sure. Rashad, you want to go to your theory about you had to take it a year about a pricing let's go there yeah let's go there well let's see if he wants to because he may not like he wants to say well it's one of these things before we go to amd amd is down 55 yep it's bearish well it's beyond bearish that's polar bearish but also this goes back Kodiak for real this goes back to the theory of individual stocks are very risky it's not a good idea to invest in individual stocks even Ian when he says like two texts to index it's only two stocks it's extremely dangerous to invest in individual stocks we've seen two stocks go up and come down historically Facebook back to, damn near back to 52 week low if it's continued this trend for another week.
9:25Tesla, we saw that skyrocketed. So it's like even a good company. You never know economic environment, political environment. It's safer to invest in an index fund or ETF. It's just, you're playing a very dangerous game when you're putting money in the individual stocks, especially substantial amount of money. That's dangerous. AMD is a company that is down damn near 60%.
10:01That's dangerous. If you have a lot of money in there or if you're trading, because if you're trading, you're going to lose more. I think that this highlights that if you want the chips, SMH. SMH is not down as much as that, right? Like, it's just a safer way to go about it. And the number one rule is safety first. Like, you got to play defense. You always got to play defense. So we'll see what happens with AMD. But, yeah, it's dangerous times right now that we're in. An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child in Massachusetts. An MS-13 gang member from El Salvador accused of murdering a Texas man.
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From the publisher
In this clip, Rashad Bilal, Troy Millings, and Ian Dunlap sit down to break down the current state of AMD and what investors should be considering right now. Are we entering bearish territory for AMD? Is it time to cut your losses—or is there a buying opportunity on the horizon?
Ian shares his longtime perspective on AMD as one of his favorite companies, while also explaining why he now sees it slipping off the Mount Rushmore of chip makers. The trio weighs in on where AMD stands in comparison to titans like Nvidia, TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, and Qualcomm. If you've been asking yourself whether to hold, sell, or wait for new lows, you’ll get actionable insights and specific price levels Ian is watching ($53.16 and $25.82), as well as key chart analysis from Troy.
The conversation also digs into macroeconomic factors affecting the semiconductor sector—like tariffs, US manufacturing policy, and the ongoing GPU wars. What does "America First" for chips mean for AMD and its competition? Can AMD regain second place in GPUs, or is Nvidia's dominance locked in for the next five years?
Rashad puts a spotlight on the dangers of individual stock picking, stressing why index funds and ETFs (like SMH) offer a safer, more defensive play. With AMD down nearly 60%, the risks of concentrating investment in single companies have never been clearer.
If you want real talk about investing, industry trends, technical analysis, and why defense in investing is just as important as offense, this clip is for you.
*Timestamps:*
0:00 - Is it time to sell AMD?
0:39 - AMD’s competitive position & industry Mount Rushmore
2:13 - Price targets & technical analysis
3:58 - Impact of US chip policy & tariffs
5:00 - Risks of stock picking vs. index funds
7:10 - Final thoughts and defensive investing
*Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more honest conversations on investing, stocks, and financial strategy! If you want us to review another stock, drop your suggestion below.*
*Hashtags:*
#AMD #Investing #Semiconductors #Stocks #Nvidia #ChipStocks #ETFs #Finance #MarketAnalysis #InvestmentStrategy
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