Stock Market Noise vs. Real Catalysts: What Actually Moves the Market?

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3:29Stock futures drift higher ahead of Walensky's visit. Kind of flat now as far as for the day, but there's some anticipation that could lead to some level of breakthrough, potentially. So what, if any, will this have on the stock market? I think very little. As far as the futures market, expiration was just Friday. So you usually have a 25 to 28-day window to get all your trades done, But there's a hard deadline on which was a cutoff and the 15th was that usually after expiration happens, the first two days are a little bit flat or slower. Do I think this will be enough of a blockbuster meeting to move the market one way or another?

4:20No. One of the biggest things that I'm going to be talking about on Sunday is to understand what's a real catalyst versus what is noise. Do I think the meeting will be great or tensions ease? yes but it's more noise than actual catalyst so um yes should drop back to 63 95 at some point this month but this meeting won't be the reason why um nowhere near close to it you know more noise than catalyst for sure i'm with you i even when i looked at the question i thought more so for the futures market than anything when you're talking about commodities wheat obviously being something that's huge that comes from ukraine i think it affects those markets i i don't see it overall affecting the entire market um we we've i mean it feels like there's always some geopolitical tension somewhere um and so the talks we might see something positive but i don't expect to see any type of large uptick i think that the big day on our calendar this week is friday when jerome powell will be speaking um that's gonna have way more impact it's gonna send more flutters into the market for sure right a couple things could happen right i mean it feels like he's not going to succumb to the pressure of the president but you know all analysts are pointing that there will be a rate cut here in september um and it originally started at a quarter point but now they're talking that potentially it could be half a point which would send the market up or right at the inverse you could say hey things are not going where we expected um valuations are out of control and he says, you know what?

5:55We're not cutting rates at all. And then that mid to late summer pullback that we talked about is still right there. It'll be right in line. I'm circling Friday as the day. I noticed he met with Putin last week. So let's see today. I'm waiting for Jerome Powell. That's the guy that I need. That's the catalyst. If they move the market or they don't do anything with the rates, and could have an impact. But if he decides, like you said, two basis points or 0.5, we'll fly to the upside for sure. We're going to go. It's going to be a nice run. It's going to be a nice run. Yeah. I mean, do you think he succumbs to the pressure?

6:39Or do you feel like he even feels the pressure from the president? I think he feels it, but I think he knows he can't succumb to it. And it's a great lesson I think all of us can talk about. And it'll tie into part of our conversation with Tabitha. When being a leader, you can't give into the pressure of the noise, like linear focus on. And I know this week for all of us, it's extreme focus on what the mission is. Mission is to make sure it's the best one that we've ever had at the Best Fest. No outside noise matters. Noise versus catalyst. There can be a lot of noise and conjecture online and in public spaces.

7:17But at the end of the day, does it really make anyone's lives better? No. so true catalyst powell speaking interest rate environment true geopolitical threat like if that putin and trump meeting didn't go well it would have been some friction in the market he made sure to roll out the proverbial red carpet to make sure even though he flew that jet over putin's head the jet stealth bomber yeah so um separate put in chat catalyst versus noise catalyst is what's going to have impact on the market in your life, not the noise at all. Yeah, I'm happy either way. If we have a little pullback here, great.

7:58We got reserves ready to go. And if we're going on this bull run that goes through September, and some people might say maybe it's been baked in already. We'll see. But yeah, it's going to be important there. More importantly, just hold your money in the market. Stop looking for every little palpitation in the market to determine if you're going to get in and out. The real game is to just hold forever. Just hold. You'll be fine. An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child in Massachusetts. An MS-13 gang member from El Salvador accused of murdering a Texas man. A Venezuelan charged with filming and selling child pornography in Michigan.

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9:19Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security. What if mind control is real? If you could control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have? Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car? When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings. Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you? I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused. Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. Mind Games, a new podcast exploring NLP, a.k.a. neurolinguistic programming. Is it a self-help miracle, a shady hypnosis scam, or both?

9:55Listen to Mind Games on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The Volkswagen Beetle started out as Hitler's dream car. It wound up as a beloved hippie icon and the best-selling car of all time. How did that happen? I'm Jacob Goldstein. And I'm Robert Smith. On Business History, we tell the surprising stories behind the inventions and entrepreneurs that shaped our economy. And the story of the beetle is truly surprising. It has so much in it. He says you should be able to mount machine guns on it. Sure. Not for the family vacation, but, you know, for other things, other plans.

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