The $2 Trillion SpaceX Story Might Be an Illusion

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3:29Apple. Apple. Hit it first, yeah. From the inception of the stock market to a few years ago, right? Almost 100 years to reach a trillion dollars. And all of the trials and tribulations that had come with the stock market from the Great Recession, the Great Depression, 1999, 1984, all of these different things. And, you know, it took almost 100 years for one company to reach a trillion. And Apple had been a publicly traded company for over 25 years when that actually happened. SpaceX, on its first day of a publicly traded company, became double, triple, almost that, right? double platinum worth more than Canada 2 trillion first day of trading with 18 billion dollars of revenue what does it say about the market that we're in right now and what is the long term trajectory of SpaceX is it going to be$500 next year should you be short in this stock because it's going to come down within the next 6 months what should investors be looking for as far as price trajectory for SpaceX And what does it coming in at$2 trillion say?

4:47$2 trillion with$18 billion of revenue. What does that say? I think it shows the power of venture capital and private markets. Power with a one-of-a-kind CEO. Is the valuation high? Yes. But that's the game that we're in. I remember what Airbnb was valued at, what it was valued at before when public and everyone had issues with it. And then it grew 10x from there. So the pipeline from Angel to Venture, I think, has become even more powerful than it has been. And I think a lot of people in that space saw what Teal was able to do, and they want to usurp him and be able to do the same thing. As far as should you short it, I got this question a lot over the last few days.

5:35Even though I know the price is going to contract and come down within the next six months, I think it is a mistake to short the stock. especially these first four or five weeks. You're going against tailwinds that are so strong. If you're shorting the stock, you're saying my$50 ,000 in options is worth more than the billions that are slushing in from funds, fund to funds, hedge funds, 401ks, and it's not. Also, too, you got to look at the perspectives. I did a breakdown on this in Stock Club. but SpaceX is and I said before that at some point he's going to leave Tesla and this is going to be the company and Starlink that he focuses on but if you look at what they said in their prospectus the value or total addressable market is 26.5 trillion from AI not rockets 760 billion in consumer subscriptions from Starlink and 600 billion in digital advertising.

6:40This is a rocket company rapper. This is really an AI company. So if you, because it's even in how it went public, it's not classified in that same space the bone would be in, which I think is brilliant. You get the branding of rocket propulsion, lunar economy, orbit economy, but it's really an AI company. Also, too, we have to remember he wants his revenge from Sam Altman because I helped you organize over there at OpenAI. So this is his grand FU to Sam while destroying his career reputation. The valuation is high, but for the way that has been planned, you have to give him credit. It's absolutely brilliant, even a lockup period, and to make sure that the price doesn't float down below a certain level.

7:31Can't argue with it. It's the environment that we're in right now. So what's the price prediction? if you want to know the price of where SpaceX will fall to, go to iainvest.com please and I'll tell you will it go to$500? For sure will it have a deep pullback? For sure, but the mechanisms in which he will make sure that the price stays afloat these first three or four months is nefarious but brilliant hopefully it's a trillion dollar opportunity I'll just be frank with you it's a trillion dollar industry and when you think about the AI components and I've said this here plenty of times about Google's idea really to have data centers go out to space in terms of energy efficiency in terms of cooling in terms of space like room that you have right here when we build data centers it actually has to take up land if in this space obviously in orbit um and they have a 90 market share like think about that in which space no pun intended in the lunar economy right a 90 market share in terms of who gets to go out there and who doesn't they're so far ahead of i don't even know who number two is like space redlining right like we can't who's if there's not a clear number two and we know that this is number one And they're going to be number one for a while, like I said, with that margin of space in between whoever's next.

9:04You take into account the fact that they have the XAI piece, the Starlink piece. This is where the IPO, yes, the valuation is high. Is this where it stops? No, no, no. This will be a company, like you said,$450 to$475 within the next two to three years. I can see that happening easily. I think what was interesting, this IPO, and I know a lot of people, I put it in EY University, were like, hey, we don't touch IPOs. We don't touch IPOs, which is true. Based on everything that we say, this is true. I think what was interesting with this one, I was like, let me, this is new. I've never seen a pre-IPO on a brokerage, right?

9:44So I know a few brokerages, Robinhood allowed you to do it. E-Trade allowed you to do it. And there were some brokerages that didn't allow you to do it. So I'm going to walk you through the process because I did end up with shares of SpaceX. It wasn't guaranteed, but they took you through a process, an application to even be part of that pre-market IPO from the brokerage accounts. You have to fill out an investor form. You have to tell them your net worth. They already can see your portfolio. And so they're kind of selecting who gets to have shares at 135. Now, we know by the time the public actually gets it, if you didn't do it pre, you're going to buy it at the 160.

10:21I think it got up to 171 at one point on Friday, pulled back to 169. So the people who had the pre IPO from the brokerage, they get locked in at 135. I put in a request in for it. I put 300 shares. Let's see if we can get them. I got 85. I had a friend of mine who requested 7 ,000 shares and got 500. I had people who put up 100, requested 100 shares and got one. Yeah. One. Right. And they got filled at one. And so the rhyme or reason of what the allocation was, we don't know. But it was very interesting. I said, let me just participate so I can at least tell people what this is like, because this is very new.

10:58This is something that Vlad Tenev had told us about maybe a year and a half, maybe two years ago, about what if the average person could have access to a company before it went public. Right. So, yes, obviously it went public Friday, but I think the application started maybe a week and a half, maybe two weeks prior to that with Robert Hood saying, hey, put your limit or they actually asked you for your limit. Yeah, that you would like to pay. And so most people put one thirty five and got filled. But now people have shares that appreciated 19, 20, 25 percent in a day. Look at it as an investment.

11:32We're not looking at how we're going to short this or how we're going to. That's a disaster move right now. the first thought i had was we always talk about this hey if you would have spent a thousand dollars on this company 10 years later this is how much it would be worth 10 000 with a company 10 years 20 years later this is how much it would be worth well this felt like almost an opportunity to really test that in real time right so we're going to hold these shares and in five ten years let's see how much they're worth right if they pull back great do i think this is a company that's going to be here and they're going to be a leader in their space for sure will it be a part of the dominant AI outer space lunar economy for sure, right?

12:13It almost felt like when I was talking about TSM and their market dominance, how will everything run if they don't do their job? And so it almost feels like SpaceX has that tendency with if they don't function, how will the rest of that sector move? I feel like they have that level of dominance. And two things can be true. For those who, let's say, are naysayers, And even if you look at the prospectus, they said we have the largest actionable, total addressable market in human history. We talk a lot about ownership, and one of the most important assets you can own is your digital real estate. Too many entrepreneurs rely on social media platforms they don't control.

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17:02That market, and it probably won't reset to that until we have some kind of economic pullback in the stock market. So I have a couple of things that I don't like in a prospectus, but in terms of the value of the company, Elon is always going to be a chimera. The company, same with us, is going to start as one thing and it's going to continuously evolve into something else. There's that part where it's right before IBOs where he says, it's not just about us going to Mars, it's about you. The person that listens to us right now is we want to put you on Mars. Are we there in the next five to ten years?

17:36I don't know if that happens. But if you listen to Jensen, if you listen to Sundar Pichai from Google, if you listen to Patella, Microsoft, if you listen to Sam Altman, if you listen to Amadei from Anthropic, space is coming. Power through Starlink. Power through having satellites, having data centers, that is going to happen, right? And they're all preparing for it. So if you think it's nonsense, if you're a naysayer about it, go listen to what some of those CEOs from all those compute and infrastructure companies are saying about where this is headed, they all are pointing to that at some point they will have data centers, they will be powered by solar, powered from the sun, and they will exist out there and it will be more energy efficient.

18:25That is going to happen, whether that happens in 10 years or it happens in five, it will happen. And then, my last point, Shadi, real quick. The advantage that he has is that he built the most important part in advance, which was the connectivity part. So even if you think the lunar economy thing is a farce, Starlink probably, I've always said, I think is the greatest company in his portfolio and probably is one of the best communication companies there is. So even if the rest of the lunar economy stuff isn't true, every data center on Earth is going to have to partner with him for the connectivity for the data centers.

19:04He has an edge there. That's an addressable market. And three things can actually be true. And one thing is, obviously, he's a trillionaire, so no matter how you feel about Elon Musk, he's accomplished something that is kind of astronomical in the realm of thinking. The next richest person in the world is worth$200 million on paper. Sergey, right? Larry Ellison. Okay. $200 million on paper. On paper. So, like$260 something. But even more impressive than that is that with this IPO, 4 ,000 employees became millionaires. millionaires and even more impressive than that is 400 people in the company became 100 millionaires.

19:47That's the feat. Yeah, 400. He made 400 people millionaires. 400 people, 100 millionaires. 400 millionaires. 4 ,000 people millionaires. Well, one thing about Elon also is that he's very good at selling things.

20:08because Tesla should not be valued at the valuation that it is now. But because of him. I mean, it is what he's good at saying. Okay, this is what's going to happen. The whole world is going to be forced to drive electric vehicles. Then Donald Trump says electric cars is a scam. The whole world is going to be forced to buy human robots. Autonomous vehicles. That was the whole world. And the taxi service is rolling out. He's been working on potential for a long time. No matter how you slice it, still potential. 18 million in revenue is 18 million in revenue. No matter how he's saying future guidance and what potentially could happen, 18 billion is still 18 billion.

20:51Whether it's future guidance, whether it's potential was going to happen, but anything could happen. Anything could happen. Elizabeth Warren could become president and say everything is done. We're not doing in space. We're going to cut all of these contracts. Anything can happen. Most people are judged on what they're currently doing in this moment. Elon Musk is given the benefit of the doubt of what could potentially happen in the future. In 15 years. Whether that's right or wrong, it doesn't matter if it's right or wrong or not because Wall Street has priced it in and it doesn't look like it's going to change.

21:22Like I said, they've already done it with Tesla and they're doing it now with SpaceX. Both trillion dollar companies. It is what it is. $18 billion in revenue never equals$2.2 trillion in the stock market. It has never done. Ever. Never. Never. And it will never happen again. But for Elon Musk it did happen. The last piece on this for me is, and Ian you kind of alluded to it, the wind that is pushing this. There's some key events that are happening. Obviously the IPO was the first thing. Options trading will begin tomorrow on SpaceX. Now, we've talked about brokerages and how much money are being brought.

22:05It's not from people buying shares. If you ask Charles Schwab, if you ask advisors from Robinhood or E-Trade, it's the options trading. That's going to start this week. At the end of next week, they'll have double leverage ETFs with SpaceX. Okay. In a month, it's going to be added it's going to be added to the NASDAQ 100. Right? In three months, it potentially could be added to the S &P. Like, that is all the wind that is about to push this stock. Yeah. And you can say it's not fair, which you can agree. That's fair. But also, too, the pipeline from Angel to Venture to the selection of bank to this inclusion, nefarious or not, he has found talking about building a moat he has found a way for like you said rashad there's less than the one one percent ratio revenue earned versus valuation but he's found a moat to almost make this thing become a reality regardless of price discovery yeah like the p ratio also highest in history.

23:22Part of being a salesman is not selling a product that you have. Okay. I hate to bring religion into this, but the biggest sale of all time is religion because you're... No, I'm not saying that it's a bad thing.

23:41People are dedicating their life based off of future results that are not technically proven in this moment, right? Heaven. And that's any religion. Any religion, the ultimate goal is to do enough good on earth so that you can reap the rewards later on in heaven, right? So Elon Musk, any good salesman, a good salesman can sell you what he has here. I have a bottle of water that's going to quench your thirst, set values worth$2. That's a good salesman. A great salesman will sell you what you don't even see. What technically you might not even in the moment. But you're willing to pay an exorbitant amount for it because it's sold to you for the benefit you know what this is worth in the moment.

24:42I don't know what a unlimited amount of water will be worth 10 years from now there could be a drought there could be no more water on earth what would you pay what would you pay for what would you pay for unlimited amount of water if you knew that there would be no water in 10 years you would pay everything right yeah so so like i said that's that's the key in business elon musk is a great salesman because he's selling things that you don't even have right in present yeah and like i said the last thing you made me think of it just now the 18 billion we'll see what the number really is because there's a bunch of people saying that's completely inaccurate the the number is close to 100 billion but we'll see because now that they're a publicly traded company you got it in 90 days yeah we'll see what those first yeah we can't just say it estimate in 90 days so from june 12th that would give us until September, maybe late September, early October, SpaceX will be reporting and we'll be watching very, very closely.

25:43Even if it was $200 billion, it would still be... But now we don't have to guess. It would still be tremendously unproportional based off of historical data of what currently has happened for any company to be worth$2 trillion with $200 billion in revenue. This is the first company that's ever IPO'd at these type of numbers. And we saw it when Kathy was the biggest advocate for it the crazy part people watch that playbook tore her career down and it's a bunch of investors who are going to raise the price of spacex regardless of valuation let's say the number is 200. They're going to say they estimated it was 18 we're at 200 billion look what we'll be in five years they did the same thing with tesla it goes to your point of the marketing i'm gonna tell you 18 18 the whole time we make it 200.

26:34Look how much further ahead we are than we said you thought we were. The only thing about that is that even a great scammer I'm not calling him a scammer but I'm saying even a great one the gig turns up eventually. Bernie Madoff had a great run but eventually the gig was up. So it's only so long that you can at the level he's at does it like yeah yeah one two it's only it's only so long yeah i don't i don't before you actually got to produce something well you can't you can't run off this is true you can't run off of future valuations forever earners what's up look building wealth isn't just about making money it's about knowing where your money is working for you that's why we partner with empower empower is all about helping you invest well so you can go out and live a little their free Empower Personal Dashboard gives you a complete view of your financial life in one place.

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