The Coinbase Trap_ Why Short-Term Trades are DANGEROUS Right Now!

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0:31and culture with comedy, clarity, and conversations that shake the status quo. The Crown Act in New York was signed in July of 2019, and that is a bill that was passed to prohibit discrimination based on hairstyles associated with race. To hear this and more, listen to Selective Ignorance with Mandy B from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Bowen Yang. And I'm Nat Rogers. During this season of the Two Guys Five Rings podcast, In the lead up to the Milan Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games, we've been joined by some of our friends.

1:04Hi, Bowen. Hi, Matt. Hey, Elmo. Hey, Matt. Hey, Bowen. Hi, Cookie. Hi. Now, the Winter Olympic Games are underway. We are in Italy to give you experiences from our hearts to your ears. Listen to Two Guys, Five Rings on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What if mind control is real? If you could control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have? Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car? When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings. Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you?

1:42I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused. Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. Mind Games, a new podcast exploring NLP. aka neurolinguistic programming. Is it a self-help miracle, a shady hypnosis scam, or both? Listen to Mind Games on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. You got to talk about Coinbase and what that represents as far as short-term trades, because short-term trades, I got burnt a few times with short-term trades. And the thing with short-term trades is that sometimes factors can work against you that you don't have control over.

2:25And you got to be extremely careful. And that's a good example, I think, this Coinbase situation. So you want to talk about that? Yeah, man. You talk about all of the signs pointing to a negative earnings report, right? If we look at the space that Coinbase is in, obviously cryptocurrency is huge for their bottom line. We looked at how Bitcoin predominantly has performed over the past six months. or even in the last quarter, we talk about the downtrend of Bitcoin and how long that usually lasts. Usually these downward cycles last anywhere between 150 to 360 days. On the shortest term, it's been like 141.

3:05We are currently, that was Thursday, so we're currently in like day 136 or something like that. So we're still in that short-term phase. You look at that, you look how Robinhood reported and they pulled back on their earnings, obviously because of the downturn in their revenue from from cryptocurrency bitcoin being a leader you see how much the revenue comes from bitcoin i think was like at 20 and so you start asking yourself at least i was asking myself like okay well if we see all those metrics on a downward trend then coinbase obviously must also be in this because it's in the same sector you go a little deeper into the research you find that you know 50 50 of coinbase's revenue comes from cryptocurrency it doesn't say specifically there's no details on it but the estimated what people perceive you can see the correlation the correlation right i think there's 34 of that cryptocurrency revenue comes from bitcoin alone again if it's in the downward cycle you can see how revenue is going to miss and so i said okay well i hate puts number one i hate puts hate them don't do them rarely i said this might be an opportunity here let's just let's put a put on this um and it was like right at the money um and at like four o 'clock this happens and oh we're looking great all day we're looking great and then like at four o 'clock we're looking even better it gets down to 134 i'm like perfect we've dropped 14 and i'm watching this thing and i'm watching it and then i watch it go up i'm like hold on let me read the report missed on earnings missed on revenue future guidance is weak Yeah, Future Guys is terrible.

4:44Brian Armstrong, they said a fucking word. Everything you can think of is in the favor of this should be a pullback, right? I watched it go to 148. I said, oh, damn. After hours, we can't control it. I know there's some platforms that allow you to trade equities 24-7. But in the options, you can't do anything, right? After 4 o 'clock, you're done. You can't do anything again until 930 when the market opens. Watching it, watching it for an hour, it goes from up to 154. I'm like, yo, what? This is, then I start thinking like, the market will always punish you for doing short term. And this is why I hate doing puts.

5:20Wake up in the morning, it's at 154. I said, oh my gosh, this is ridiculous. Coinbase ends up closing at 164. Like the put was at 148. So obviously we lose on a put. And just for full transparency, when we do puts, we're not looking at them as leaps, right? That's too much time. And so if we do a put, it's usually going to be a week, two weeks three weeks out so we can get to that that price it shot up to 164 on friday obviously the market wasn't open today it'll probably stay in that range and so i'm trying to figure out why what who's holding this company up and the only thing i could find and hopefully maybe somebody can add some some some uh texture around this the conversation is they said that it had hit a bottom and retail investors are saying let's buy the dip and i said no man no way no way no way and so it wasn't retailed or let the charge but kudos to the institutional buyers i see you and sometimes we talk about being a short seller in that situation the short seller got squeezed that would be a short seller getting squeezed right like when everything is pointing to the downward trend you're saying yes here comes downward trend okay here comes market squeeze you out your position take the liquidity it stays afloat now how long will it stay at 160 let's say it stays up there for four weeks and drops back down to 130 at some point all those people who are inside of those those short-term calls or puts all get squeezed liquidity is taken by the brokerage and we get stuck looking like oh my gosh why do we do this in the first place so just be careful when you're doing puts this is a valuable lesson that can be learned opposed to a two-week time frame what time frame would be beneficial for them to hold the put where it could pay out in their favor like going forward if they was in the same scenario but you got a month or how long much longer i think a month i think it's months suffice month and a half at the at the max i don't i've done probably like five puts and like maybe at the most i could probably like maybe 10 at the most in like seven years right this is something i rarely do but the opportunity was point pointing in that direction it didn't work in that favor um and so we'll see what happens with it but again sometimes the momentum sometimes Sometimes earnings could be terrible and you can see, we'll see a crazy bounce up$20 and earnings can be great and a stock will be flat or actually pull back.

7:43Right. We just saw that happen with Google. Right. We're still seeing it happen with Google. And we'll talk about them a little bit later. But like these are the things. And that's why when we say like, hey, catalyst events are important. They're good to have as information. They always aren't created the same. And momentum may not move in your favor just because something was great because there's information that we don't know. But shout out to Brian Armstrong and the whole family. And the same thing that happened in futures. Like the futures market may drop and then you'll see a dead cat bounce and it hits your stop and then go back to that direction.

8:16That's why you have to go back and test. It's a great thing to do in Claude to find out what the average true range is to see where to put your stop so they won't get whipped out. So, yeah, be mindful, especially in this market, regardless of the direction that you're going, that you have enough time in your favor and your stop loss is not too tight for the asset that you're trading yeah and it got double downgraded think about that right so when we talk about grading and that's based on how analysts from large institutional firms feel about a company there's usually like outperform um perform hold sell strong sell it got double downgraded to sell on the day of its earnings.

8:59So, I mean, if you look at the report, I mean, everything pretty much was negative and we saw it bounce. Go figure. Yeah, go figure. Okay, so blackout at 9 o 'clock Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday. Make sure you tap in and then earn your leisure at 12 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Thursday. We got Mark Barnes. So, Mark Barnes, if you've ever been to D.C., speaking of D.C., Park on 14th, you know he's the one that actually had club dream club love legendary by all accounts the number one club owner in America when it comes to his 30 year run if you ever been to DC I'm pretty sure you know about park dream and love and if you don't then you out the loop yeah we interviewed him at the park and yeah he had some interesting things interesting things to say for sure So, man, interesting thing.

9:55A lot of gems, though, a lot of gems, but very entertaining. I'll say that much. It gives very, I'm free. Over the last couple of years, didn't we learn that the folding chair was invented by black people because of what happened in Alabama? Montgomery Brawl. This Black History Month, the podcast Selective Ignorance with Mandy B unpacks black history and culture with comedy, clarity and conversations that shake the status quo. The Crown Act in New York was signed in July of 2019, and that is a bill that was passed to prohibit discrimination based on hairstyles associated with race. To hear this and more, listen to Selective Ignorance with Mandy B from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

10:35I'm Bowen Yang. And I'm Matt Rogers. During this season of the Two Guys Five Rings podcast, in the lead up to the Milan Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games, we've been joined by some of our friends. Hi, Bowen. Hi, Matt. Hey, Elmo. Hey, Matt. Hey, Bowen. Hi, Cookie. Hi. Now, the Winter Olympic Games are underway, and we are in Italy to give you experiences from our hearts to your ears. Listen to Two Guys, Five Rings on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What if mind control is real? If you could control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have?

11:13Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car? When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings. Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you? I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused. Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. Mind Games, a new podcast exploring NLP, a.k.a. neurolinguistic programming. Is it a self-help miracle, a shady hypnosis scam, or both? Listen to Mind Games on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. 1969, Malcolm and Martin are gone. America is in crisis.

11:54And at Morehouse College, the students make their move. These students, including a young Samuel L. Jackson, locked up the members of the Board of Trustees, including Martin Luther King Sr. It's the true story of protest and rebellion in Black American history that you'll never forget. I'm Hans Charles. I'm Menelik Lumumba. Listen to The A Building on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.