Will China Invade Taiwan? Market Impact, Tensions & The Semiconductor Race

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3:38A company that has done very well. I know it's in a lot of people's portfolio. You're welcome. Will this push China over the edge and take in Taiwan? and Taiwan Semiconductor, is the threat for TSM even higher now? Is there a time frame on when? You saying this year? Well, he said this year. Okay.

4:07Go ahead. No, no, Troy, go ahead. I was going to say my answer is no. I don't think they take it over this year. I feel like - The country? The country. They're not going to take over Taiwan. And when you hear him speak, it almost seems like he's speaking inevitably. Like at some point, that is going to happen. I don't think it's now. I think in terms of war, right? This will create war. You don't tell the enemy or the proposed land that we're coming to take you over. Well, Trump did it with Venezuela. Well, he's different. He gave him a warning. I'll tell you that. I think the dancer put him over the top.

4:42Yeah, he had a problem. I think the dancer was - Well, they already had boots on the ground, but - Yeah. I think war here is the last resort. And because of the importance of what Taiwan Semiconductor means to the world economy, including China's economy. Well, now we see what you don't got to go to war, though. You could just do this Venezuela thing. Well, no. Well, for them, just because of you're talking about taking over the entire country. They went to go take the president. Right. Trump said we're going to run the country. That's what Trump said. What I'm saying for Taiwan, it's a little bit different.

5:17Well, he's going to do that remote if he installs the person he wants there. They don't necessarily want to. Obviously, they want to take the land. But the most important asset is that company. But it's not just that, though. But it's the most important. But they wanted Taiwan before TSM was invented. What's the number one? What's the most important asset? Asset right now. But I'm saying this Taiwan thing predates TSM. I know that. But I'm saying the number one asset they have is TSM. Why is that so important? because the future of the world's economy relies on semiconductors, relies on AI. It is a race that they want to win.

5:50They feel like they have to win. That's the most important piece. When you're talking about 90 % of the world's semiconductors being manufactured from a company, that's a piece that we have to have, and it's right there for us to take. It won't be an easy invasion. In fact, I think, was it two months ago, Wall Street Journal put out how they could do it. I'm like, this is interesting. Why are we putting this out in November about how it could be done and how it wouldn't be an easy process? I don't think it happens. number one, again, strategically to say it out loud and to try to go ahead and do it, I don't think that would be the way that historically how China has done things, right?

6:22I think they look at the long-term vision of where the country wants to be and they know where they need to be, right? And so having TSM crumble would hurt not just our economy, it hurt theirs too. You still need that. Run a business and not thinking about podcasting? Think again. More Americans listen to podcasts than ad-supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined. So whatever your customers listen to, they'll hear your message. Plus, only iHeart can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio.

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9:30Listen to How to Money on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Right? Even though there's been reports of NVIDIA chips getting smuggled in and those were manufactured by TSM, you still need that company to function to make sure that you don't fall as well. Right? Like, that's like cutting off your nose. Right? What if you use the word crumble? where if they don't i don't think the plan is the chrome i don't think the plan is taking over but so inside of that that that company there's a kill switch right so you can't just come into that space and say like we're going to invade and we're going to take over this company and it's going to be wrong there's a kill switch unless you have people on the inside and like america had as well the inside china got an they got inside man they've tried it they've tried it a bunch of times and they're still trying it just while we're in this minute toward it yeah they tried it in the netherlands with asml they've tried it with taiwan semiconductor they actually got, there's a guy they're trying to bring back from China.

10:23They're trying to say like, yo, we need him exergeted back because he left Taiwan Semiconductor to try to give away the secrets of how they were manufacturing and how they were using the machines to manufacture. So they've tried it. They're still trying it. But that company is still so important. It's still so important. Like you can, like I said, when you take apart a GPU or you break down one of the machines, it's not something that's like, hey, we can put this back together. There's certain details, there's certain intricacies that only this company he's going to be able to do right and this is why the investment inside the united states was strategic right it wasn't just by accident that yo we want you to put fabs here you know what you did one here come now we need three of them they understood the geopolitical issues that were at hand i don't i don't think they invade this year i think they look long term at some point they will try to seize it but by that time i think the fabs will be throughout the world and the impact won't be as great.

11:14But everybody's from, Jensen's from Taiwan and his cousin, who's the CEO of AMD, she's from Taiwan. They're American citizens. True indeed, but I'm going to wrap up both points because here's what's really important. 45 % of US GDP last year came from 42 tech stocks centered around NVIDIA, OpenAI. But the key cornerstone point And that TSM is responsible for 20 % of that. So China feels as if, and this is the point Rashad is making, because that province was taken away from us, you took away our chance to be the number one global leader anyway. Is there a kill switch in there? Yes. Are there some reports of some espionage going on in case?

12:06Highly likely. So it's a global war and a tech war, but you took our most precious gem of a country and the tech Americanized it because without the AI trade, we would have underperformed Europe. No one's really talking about that. That's not fair. That's not fair. Only because it wasn't tech, right? It was manufacturing first, right? Nobody manufactures, right? Like we grew up in that era when you got your sneakers like made in Taiwan, right? AI is a newer thing because of, and that was an American mistake, right? For sure. Dropped the ball. Intel dropped the ball. Yeah, exactly. They dropped the ball on their engineer who then went to Taiwan to create Taiwan Semiconductor.

12:49Now from 88 on, now like, wait, they have a gem there. Now it makes sense. Of course you would want that land back. Of course you would. And once you saw the technology that's there, and you see where the future said, of course you want it back. I just don't think they're taking it back. And I don't think he'll do it this year, but if something were to happen in 27? For my account's sake. Oh, baby. If something happens in 27, he's not going to start the war. But if the war gets started, he's going to finish it. He's going to finish it. Now, all jokes aside, we can't have that happen. We just can't have that happen.

13:27Is there a kill switch? Yes, but is there some? We are seeing high-level war games. like the venezuela thing that's the entry that's the kindergarten level of so here's the interesting us uh they take the president of venezuela it doesn't automatically warrant a response from china right yes we want you to send them back that was that illegal act of war if they invade or try to invade taiwan that's gonna and baits us to go on here immediate response now it's going sometimes You gotta go throw the snowball in your little cousin's face to get him. Yeah, come on. What you wanna do? Nah, that's gonna be an immediate response.

14:09Now, that's war. Well, maybe not an immediate response because the New York Times, which is a pretty credible organization, they had a, they put out a whole thing of how America cannot beat China in a war. And they said the Pentagon went through 20 different war simulations and lost every time. So if you know you can't beat somebody, all it takes is somebody to actually call you bluff. that's all fun and games right but the reality is this you're talking about Nvidia, you're talking about Apple you're talking about Microsoft, you're talking about Broadcom, you're talking about Meta all your major companies catastrophe you can't let it happen you mean us being involved in a Taiwan if we don't get involved that's what's at risk or what if they get us involved to expose the lack of book management and ponzi that's been going on in the country there's a bunch of ways to from those companies to win enough overall market okay okay overall market not those companies those are fine even a hyper concentration for sure you know what i'm saying can't risk it but 10 stocks account for 35 of u.s market value and i'm a pro hyper concentration person that's too much fucking concentration we've never seen we haven't had a Santa Claus rally in three years what that spells out for those who are watching there is gross mismanagement and corruption like we've never seen that's interesting for every hedge fund pension fund fund to fund PE VC angel to put all of their chips in to 10 when there's 4 or 5 thousand and the thing that's not talked about it since the 80s we have probably two or three thousand companies that have been delisted and have never come back so we have a contraction and now we have all this hype and concentration in why because there's gross mismanagement somewhere do you do you think the hyper concentration gets better in 26 or i think it's going to increase it's going to get worse it's going to get worse it's going to get PNC Bank.

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