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Podcast Episode Summary
Empire - Episode 330: The Iranian Revolution: 1979 vs. 2026 (Ep 1)
Overview In this episode of *Empire*, hosts William Dalrymple and Anita Anand discuss the current protests in Iran and how they parallel the events leading up to the Iranian Revolution of 1979. The episode features insights from two experts on Iran: Scott Anderson, author of *King of Kings*, and Ramita Navai, a documentary-maker and author of *City of Lies*.
Context
- Current Situation in Iran: Ongoing protests against the regime, with reports indicating a significant loss of life among protestors.
- Historical Reflection: The 1979 revolution led to the overthrow of the Shah’s monarchy, establishing the Islamic Republic.
Main Themes and Discussions
Parallels Between 1979 and the Current Protests
- Historical Context: The hosts emphasize the urgency of the current protests, drawing comparisons to the past movements that led to dramatic political changes.
- Activism and Leadership: The unique aspect of the current protests is the absence of a singular leader, allowing various groups to unite under common goals.
The Role of Symbols and Nostalgia
- Emerging Symbols: Protestors have begun to rally under the pre-revolutionary Lion and Sun flag, representing a nostalgic push against the current regime.
- Public Sentiment: There's a growing nostalgia for the era before the Islamic Republic, with many Iranians expressing a desire to return to symbols of their historical identity.
Analysis of Key Figures
- Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi: Discussion on the potential role of Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah, as a unifying figure amidst the protests.
- Activist Leaders' Views: While some activists are hesitant about his ties to the West, many see him as the only viable option to lead during a transition.
Economic Factors and Governance
- Economic Crises: Similar to 1979, the episode underscores the role of economic instability in fueling protests. The current regime is perceived to be corrupt and ineffective.
- Repression and Control: The hosts discuss how the regime responds to dissent, noting the increased violence against protestors and the challenges faced in accurately assessing public sentiment due to state control.
Key Takeaways
- The Iranian protests reflect deep historical grievances and a desire for change, echoing the events of 1979.
- There is a significant level of public dissatisfaction with the current regime, and emerging symbols of the past are being embraced as rallying points.
- The potential role of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi raises questions about the prospects for leadership in a post-regime Iran.
Expert Contributions
- Scott Anderson: Provides historical context and insights into the Iranian political landscape.
- Ramita Navai: Shares personal experiences and observations from her time in Iran, offering a unique perspective on the current socio-political climate.
Conclusion As the episode concludes, Dalrymple and Anand express the precarious nature of the situation in Iran and the importance of understanding the historical context to anticipate potential future developments.
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Additional Resources
- Join the Empire Club for exclusive content and early access to episodes at [empirepoduk.com](http://empirepoduk.com).
- Follow the podcast on social media for updates and discussions.
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Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOSetting the Stage: Current Events in Iran
2:17 to 5:26
Hosts discuss the ongoing situation in Iran and its historical parallels.
“There is, at the moment, in Iran, something of a geopolitical earthquake going on.”
Introducing the Guests
5:26 to 9:15
Hosts introduce their guests, Scott Anderson and Ramita Navai, highlighting their expertise.
“And it's a country which since 1979 has been at least partly cut off from the rest of the world in the same way that sort of North Korea or other countries.”
Historical Context: The 1979 Revolution
9:15 to 10:36
Discussion on the connections between the 1979 revolution and today's events.
“And so I think in a way, it's the ultimate sort of insult you can throw back to the regime.”
Nostalgia for Pre-Revolutionary Iran
10:36 to 12:20
Exploration of the growing nostalgia for Iran's pre-Islamic past.
“It's one of the most resonant historical sites.”
Current Sentiments and Future Predictions
12:20 to 14:01
Discussion on the current sentiments of Iranians and potential future outcomes.
“They had an army that was incredibly up to date.”
Despondency and Protests in Iran
14:01 to 19:14
Explore the sentiments of the Iranian opposition and the impact of foreign bombings.
“There was this huge rallying around the flag effect for the regime.”
Introduction of the Shah's Son
19:14 to 19:50
Understand the emerging figure of the Shah's son in the current opposition movement.
“So join us after the break where we compare what happened then and perhaps what's happening now.”
Comparing 1979 and Current Events
20:24 to 28:00
Discuss the pivotal events in Washington during the Shah’s visit and their implications.
“This episode is brought to you by State Farm.”
Understanding the Iranian Regime's Awareness
28:00 to 28:52
Explore the awareness of the Iranian regime regarding public dissent.
“The second more illuminating fact that we got from that is that they managed to hack into a missive, a bulletin that's sent to IRGC top brass.”
Economic Factors Behind the 1979 Revolution
28:52 to 30:05
Learn about the economic conditions that fueled the Iranian Revolution.
“The Carter administration, the island of stability, the Shah himself, not at all conscious of the fact that people hated him and wanted to go.”
Show all 12 chapters
The Urban-Rural Divide and Unemployment
30:05 to 31:29
Discuss the impact of urban migration and unemployment on the revolution.
“And that the people, particularly in the villages, the conservative Iran, which is unchanged in many ways for a century or so, was losing out.”
Religious Sentiment and Modern Rebellion
31:29 to 32:10
Analyze the role of religion in today's protests compared to the past.
“It's the elite who have milked the system for...”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00William:If you want access to bonus episodes, reading lists for every series of Empire, a chat community, discounts for all the books mentioned in the week's podcast, ad-free listening, and a weekly newsletter, sign up to Empire Club at www.empirepoduk .com. A Better Health ad. International Women's Day is this March. Time to celebrate all women, the leaders, the caregivers, the hype friends, the how-do-you-do-it-all types. Therapy can be a space to reflect, reset, and reconnect, and BetterHelp makes it simple by matching you with a qualified therapist based on your needs and preferences. No pressure, no guesswork.
0:40William:Visit BetterHelp.com slash empire for 10 % off. That's BetterHelp.com slash empire.
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1:08Ramita Navai:Would you like fresh towels?
1:10Scott Anderson:It matters where you stay. Book now at Hilton.com. Hilton, for this day.
1:18William:We're leaving today and entering a world of Mickey Mouse waving, princess meeting and greeting. lightsaber clashing the twilight zone tower of terror dropping banshee flying space mountain launching galaxy rewinding galaxy rewinding fireworks igniting world of other worlds for whatever you love infinite worlds await at the most magical place on earth walt disney world
1:48Anita:resort all eyes are on iran a country in turmoil a country that seems to be on the cusp of an enormous transformative change and yet it feels like we have been here before so what lessons of 1979 in particular what can they tell us about the future
2:17William:Hello and welcome to EmpirePod. I'm William Derimple.
2:21Anita:And I'm Anita Arnon. There is, at the moment, in Iran, something of a geopolitical earthquake going on. We're getting reports of thousands of dead on the streets, shot dead by the state. Now we're recording possibly a week before you're hearing this and we're at the Jaipur Literary Festival. And the kind of magical thing that happens at a literary festival of this size and one that is this international is that you can pull together people with relevant experience. So we have for you today a real treat. We have one person who has forensically looked into the revolution of 1979 that feels so familiar to what's going on today.
3:02Anita:and another who has been born in Iran, has contacts with Iran, and can perhaps give us an idea of just how much we should draw from that 1979 experience to predict what is going to happen in the next few months.
3:17William:So our two amazing guests on this pod, and this is the first time in Empire, I think, that we've done two guests, and it's a measure of their extraordinary abilities that we're having them today. The first is Scott Anderson. Scott I've reviewed your book on Lawrence in Arabia 10 years ago when it came out and we're very very thrilled finally to get you here both the Jaipur Literature Festival and to this podcast Scott spent time in Iran traveling through and has been working the last few years on this highly acclaimed book that anyone that read the roundups of the books of the year this year will have come across Scott's name over and over again in a whole variety of different publications and it's been a huge success not just in America but in Britain and across the world and it's been a remarkable look at this event.
4:04Anita:Yeah I mean the book is King of Kings and it's just a forensic experience of what happened during the revolution but also through the archives of the American Secret Service. It'll blow your brains I tell you and also just the fallout and how quickly it happened you get a sense of that.
4:21William:By chance also at the festival we have Ramita Navai who's been in the news a great deal lately because she was the presenter and writer of this extraordinary Channel 4 documentary, The Doctors of Gaza, charting what the UN calls the medicide, the mass murder of health professionals in the Gaza Strip over the last couple of years. Won a whole host of awards and it's an extraordinary, deeply moving film which you can see online and I could not recommend it more. But we're not actually talking today to Ramita about that. We're talking about work she did earlier in her career, because she, of course, is Iranian.
4:56William:She was born in Iran. She has Iranian family and friends all over. And she was for many years, the Times correspondent in Iran at a time when Western newspapers were allowed and able to have correspondence in Iran. And she was, in fact, the last Times correspondent. And so has a unique and rare perspective, because this is a country which, although Scott and I and many other people have been through briefly, not many people have spent in the West considerable amounts of time in Iran. And it's a country which since 1979 has been at least partly cut off from the rest of the world in the same way that sort of North Korea or other countries.
5:33William:And there is a huge ignorance, I think, in the West about it. So Ramita's extraordinary angle on this story is especially invaluable.
5:42Anita:Invaluable. So look, we're sort of starting with two ideas. We hold these two ideas in our heads, because as we are here, things are changing apace. So the one thing is how much is this like 1979 and the speed at which you saw a toppling of a regime that seemed unassailable maybe five years ago. And the second, I suppose, is while we've been here, there has been a tidal shift in the fact that all of these disparate groups that are taking to the streets in Iran are now seem to be coalescing, or so we're told, under the banner of the progeny of the last Shah, Iran.
6:23William:And under the flag, which is everywhere, of the old Pahlavi dynasty. And before that, in fact, the flag goes back further into Qajar times, the Lion and Sun flag, this very beautiful pre-revolutionary flag, which is being waved outside Iranian embassies and in the streets of Tehran and Meshed and all the other cities.
6:41Anita:So if I may, I mean, first of all, can we deal with the second point first? Because that is such a contentious issue. Now, what is the latest that you both have heard about this sort of gear shift that we seem to be hearing about while we're here in Jaipur?
6:52Scott Anderson:Well, I would say we don't know the extent to which people in Iran are backing the Shah. But what I've found really surprising is that just before the internet was shut down, one of my best friends there sent me videos of protests. This person was driving around and it was extraordinary. I could hear long live the Shah, Javid Shah. And I've been to many protests over the years and I've been covering this story for over 20 something years. I've never heard that on the streets of Iran. I don't think the disparate groups are completely unified in supporting him yet. I don't know if that will happen.
7:30Scott Anderson:But just that some groups are, some protesters are shouting that in the streets. And that's a strategic shift that's happened that I have heard has come from activist leaders.
7:41Anita:Okay, so activist leaders who, let's just be very clear about this, who may not want him, but think he's the best option. Or may not have wanted him earlier. But what they are sure of is that they don't want this regime anymore.
7:57Scott Anderson:Absolutely. So this is a matter of expediency and pragmatism. And these activist leaders, and I'm going to throw it to you in a minute, Scott, because these activist leaders who never did support him before, and I think it's interesting why the shift has happened and why Iranians in Iran are now supporting him, and we should talk about that as well. That's something I noticed when I was there last. But these activist leaders, their dream is that he takes over for an interim period while they pave the way to democracy and there's a referendum. But, Scott, we know what happened last time when there was a referendum.
8:32Scott Anderson:I mean, did they or did they not say that about the Ayatollah?
8:36Anita:They said, you know, he's fine for now. That's right. That's right. We'll have him for now and then we'll move on.
8:41Ramita Navai:And I think very similarly that during the 79, 78, 79 revolution, people galvanized around Khomeini because they saw him as kind of a spiritual guide for everybody from the left to the right. People referred to him as the Iranian Gandhi, that he was going to be, he was the spiritual guide of the revolution. With Crown Prince Reza, what I think is interesting is how this has come up again. Likewise, from people in the Iranian opposition I've talked to, I have never heard Reza's name raised. I think part of it is this reaction. The regime for 40 some odd years has utterly vilified the Pallavi reign, the dynasty.
9:21Ramita Navai:And so I think in a way, it's the ultimate sort of insult you can throw back to the regime. It's like, there's nobody else you can say that's kind of worse to the regime that now you're supporting the mortal enemy, the great Satan. So I wonder how much of that is driving that.
9:36Scott Anderson:Do you know, and this is the point that I was going to make, actually, I absolutely agree with you, Scott. What I find really interesting is that in the last, I would say, I don't know, 15 years, one thing I've noticed, and it started when I was still living there, is this growing nostalgia for the pre-Islamic regime era. And as you say, you know, that is an act of rebellion in itself.
9:59William:I have many, many friends who feel this. And whatever their personal reservations about Reza Shah, particularly his relationship with the Americans and the relationship with Israel. He's been to Israel. He's visited the Western War, but not the Al-Aqsa Mosque. And he's done a whole range of things that have made many liberals and also many on the Islamic side of things anxious about him. But you see these huge crowds coalescing over symbols of the old Iran. What sort of meeting at the tomb of Darius?
10:30Anita:Cyrus. Is it Cyrus or Cyrus? Yeah, Pasagadi.
10:34William:There's this wonderful white tomb sitting in these plains. It's one of the most resonant historical sites. And there's almost nothing left of what was once the greatest city in the world other than a single standing winged figure. And this very modest, simple tomb of this man who created the world's first empire. Now, this whole past of Iran, pre-Islamic, was vilified by the revolutionary regime, who undermined often even the idea of Iran as a culture. What was important to them was their links with the world of Islam. And they pitched themselves as the representatives of the Islamic revolution, which they're going to export all over the world, rather like Russia pitching itself as the center of the communist revolution, which it would take to Cuba and to Angola and so on.
11:19William:And the fact that the regime was so down on Persian-ness and on this succession of different dynasties, which we covered in our Empire Pod series, our 26-part series on the history of Iran. First of all, the Achaemenids, then the Sasanians, then the Qadjas and the Safavids and so on. And for many Iranians, this simple, marble, modest, but impressive tomb at Plasicardia has become a rallying point. And at the birthday of Cyrus, huge crowds have started assembling, sometimes with the lion and sun flag. And so it's not just the Pallavi dynasty, which is the center of Sardis. It's the nostalgia for a great Iran.
12:03William:Iran, which one stretched right through Afghanistan and into the stars, which represented the Persian language and the spread of Persian-ness out beyond Iran into India. This whole greatness of the Persian past is what people are nostalgic for. And while many may have their reservations about the crown prince, Reza, who's living in Washington and has a certain set of advisors and who's been leaning towards Trump and this sort of thing and Netanyahu, the feeling that Tehran has been so diminished by the Mullahs, that this country, which was richer than Saudi Arabia, which had this spectacularly glamorous middle class and who were the poster boys for Asia, in fact, or certainly that region, they were the most successful country.
12:50William:in the Middle East. They had an army that was incredibly up to date. They were rich with oil revenues and many, many people in the start of that, but also for the wider world of Persian, the Persian language, Persian literature, and the old boundaries of Iran, which stretched up to Uzbekistan.
13:06Anita:I mean, that may be true, but let me ask both of you, because you, as I do, will also follow, you know, Palestinian X or, you know, Yemeni X. And there is a great also fear that, the greatest supporters of, let's say, Yemen or Gaza, are about to be toppled by somebody who's too close to the American. I mean, when it comes to numbers, the majority feeling in Iran, can you give us any insight? And how will we ever know what the people of Iran actually, or most of the people in Iran actually want right now?
13:39Ramita Navai:I have heard, and I don't know where these numbers come from, I've heard recently that say 20 to 25 percent of iranians support the current regime and again i don't know where those numbers come from what i've heard that number too it's not that goes around
13:53Scott Anderson:it presumably isn't isn't based on i would say that's tops yes yeah what is shocking to me is
14:01Ramita Navai:is when talking about how hard it is to to figure out what what the get the temperature of inside iran three weeks ago when i was talking to people in the iranian opposition they were in a state of despondency that goes back to the American and Israeli bombings in June. I've heard this from so many people. There was this huge rallying around the flag effect for the regime. Turns out people don't like to be bombed by foreign countries. And I was hearing people in the opposition saying, if we go out and protest now, we're painted as lackeys of the Zionists and the Americans. That was up until three weeks ago.
14:36Ramita Navai:And then everything flipped. I never heard anything about Crowd Prince Reza. So the watershed moment was in late December with the currency crash, because now it went all the way across the board in Iran. Everybody was hurt by it, really kind of for the first time. The regime has traditionally been very adept at playing one segment of society off against another. They've tried to do it this time. They've tried to blame it on foreign saboteurs. No one's buying it now because everybody has been hurt by this. and the area has been galvanized by seeing just how bankrupt the whole system is now.
15:10Anita:Why is it though that there is only this one name that people can coalesce around? I mean, it feels to me because I hear that also and that flip. I mean, the flips are so rapid. So goodness knows what's going to happen by the time this goes out on air. But right here, right now, the fact that this is the only name coming up. Ramita, why is this the only name that is coming up?
15:32Scott Anderson:Well, who else is there, really? And that's been our problem. You know, I think it's really interesting that during the Women Life Freedom protests, part of its success was that there was no internal leader. Because if there is a leader within the country, it's easy for Iran to decapitate that movement.
Read the full transcript
15:53William:And for an example, the nearest thing briefly was that kid who made that amazingly moving song, who then immediately got arrested and was forced into retracting. Yes. That's an example of something they could do to anyone in the country.
16:07Scott Anderson:There were many executions after Women Life Freedom. The prisons became torture camps. There were mass arrests. You know, hundreds of thousands of Iranians were arrested. Many Iranians were raped. to so many accounts of rape. And what happened was that after they completely decimated the uprising and the protest movement, because when prisoners were released, when young Iranians were released from prison, they had the deeds of their houses taken. They were completely economically ruined. They weren't allowed to have government jobs. And, you know, the government is the biggest employer in Iran.
16:41Scott Anderson:But one of the reasons the protests managed to carry on for so long is because there was no leader. But that's also one of the reasons why so far uprisings in Iran haven't been successful, because who is there? Who is there to replace the regime? And I think this is where the Shah's son has come in recently. I would like to say that I've heard, you know, that this strategic shift in some activist leaders backing him has only just happened in the last, you know 10 days in the last two weeks it's really really happy you should say there have
17:16William:been a minority who have been in love with him and i if you go on if you go if you go to onto exile iranian yes exiles in britain but particularly exiles in tarantula in in california and they are absolutely adorable of this man and have for the last certainly five maybe longer years. He's the Shah, he's the King, he's our man. But that was limited more to the exiles. You got the impression, certainly, than to the people in the country. And now it's in the country and it's in the country in a big way. And this is what's extraordinary.
17:50Scott Anderson:So I have heard that word was sent from activist leaders. This is a really grassroots movement.
17:56Anita:And these are activist leaders who are in prison?
17:57Scott Anderson:Some of them are in prison. And, you know, they did decimate the activist movement after Women Life Freedom. You know, there were many executions. And I just explained what happened with the mass arrests and imprisonments. But there's still groups who are mobilizing. And there are still groups who are getting word out to protesters. There is some level of organization. And the protests in the last few days have abated, but they haven't stopped. And we saw this with Women Life Freedom, there was absolute repression and the protests stopped. But the protests that are happening now are pretty coordinated in the same way they were then.
18:38Scott Anderson:What I know is that some of the activist leaders who are strategically calling for the Shah to be a unifying figurehead, something they've never had before, are very deeply uncomfortable with his ties to Israel and do see him as a possible American puppet. However, they do also see him as their only route to toppling the regime.
19:02Anita:Well, look, I mean, this is a place where we're going to take a break. And then after the break, we're going to come back and we're going to look at, because 1979, you know, I think we all agree, this feels like, you know, a landscape we have walked before. So join us after the break where we compare what happened then and perhaps what's happening now.
19:49Scott Anderson:at indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply.
19:54Ramita Navai:I'm R.J. Decker, a private investigator uncovering the sunshine state's darkest secrets.
20:00William:Tuesdays, it's the premiere of ABC's hottest new crime show. R.J. freaking Decker as I live and breathe. He's a private eye. It's not a standard murder. It's someone bigger. And a public mess. Trying to get someone back to prison today?
20:13Ramita Navai:You go to prison one time and suddenly it's all the jokes. R.J.
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20:59Anita:Welcome back. So Scott, let's go back to you and your experience of being literally battered over the head by Iranian politics in Washington. So you saw up close and personal, this is a pivotal moment for the old Shah, who is making a visit to the United States and Jimmy Carter to cement, at least in the eyes of the world and his own people, maybe too. That's right. That, you know what, I've got this man who, you know, we're coming to help you. I can't remember the exact terminology Trump used, but we got your back. We got your back, that's right. We got your back. So describe what happened in Washington.
21:39Ramita Navai:Yeah, so this was in November, November 15th of 1978. Sorry, 1977. The Shah was coming to meet Carter for the first time as an official state visit. He was very nervous about the visit because, of course, Jimmy Carter came to the White House as a reformist. We're going to cut off aid to foreign dictators. We're going to limit American military arms sales abroad.
22:00Anita:All about the human rights. We're all about the human rights.
22:02Ramita Navai:And you couldn't have more of like a bullseye on anybody except the Shah. in 1977, Iran was responsible for over half of American foreign arms sales. Word had been sent to the Shah that none of this applied to him. Carter was not this kind of dreamy-eyed idealist, and he was a pragmatist. The Shah wanted to sit across the table from Carter. So it was this big ceremony coming. There were some 50 ,000 Iranian students studying in the United States at universities and graduate programs, about 4 ,000 anti-Shah demonstrators had converged on Washington to, quote, welcome the Shah. And the Shah had bussed in, or the Iranian embassy had bussed in, about 1 ,500 pro-Shah demonstrators.
22:47Ramita Navai:So -
22:47Anita:Largely from the cadet corps. So these are - A lot of them were military cadets. Young, fighty men. That's right.
22:52Ramita Navai:I'm pretty convinced it was one of the military cadets that hit me. Right. You see, he had quite a wallop. So the two sides were massed on the ellipse, which is just below the White House. This is the Great Lawn just outside of the White House. And they were separated by snow fencing, just a little flimsy fencing. And at the moment the Shah arrived at the White House, they started a 21-gun salute. And it was like a signal to the demonstrators on the ellipse to attack each other. And I happened to be standing along with a few reporters, kind of in the no-man's land between them.
23:25William:Just to clarify, you were there as a reporter, not as a demonstrator.
23:28Ramita Navai:No, I was actually the special aide to the Secretary of Treasury. I was an errand boy, essentially. It's a nice title, special aide, but in fact, I was an errand boy. And the secretary of the time didn't really require much erranding. So I spent my days just kind of wandering around trying to find interesting things to do. It was kind of a no-show job. So, of course, I saw this thing happening in the Ellipse, which is right next to the Treasury building. So I went over there. And I got caught in the middle of no man's land. And as I say in the book, I got knocked to the ground by somebody with a wooden stave.
24:01Ramita Navai:But the significance of that day. So it was the most violent day, Washington, D.C. in a decade. 127 people, I believe, wounded, injured. Nobody killed, but including about 30 policemen. And it was all broadcast live back in Tehran. Somebody had the idea of showing the shots.
24:19Anita:A live feed at this glorious moment.
24:21Ramita Navai:The triumphant arrival of the King of Kings to Washington. And of course, it backfired because the Iranian people now saw the way they interpreted that was that the Americans were humiliating the Shah. It's like, why would they allow this to happen if they were still supporting the Shah? And so really within days of that, you started seeing the first anti-Shah demonstrations inside Iran. Jump forward six weeks to New Year's Eve of 1977, the Shah makes a visit to Tehran. He's only there for about 12 hours. There's a state dinner. Carter was very given to these long, fulsome toasts. And he got up and it was not what he was supposed to say.
25:03Ramita Navai:Iran is an island of stability in a troubled region. And it's all because of the love your people have for you, your majesty. Six days later in Iran, the demonstrations against the Shah start.
25:17Anita:And just one other observation about that meeting with Carter in Washington, and the one where you got bashed over the head. I mean, tear gas is let loose. So you've got this, I mean, it's pantomime, isn't it? You've got the two men posing for their photo opportunity about to do very long, nice speeches about each other. The tear gas blows straight into their faces and they are basically streaming with tears.
25:37Ramita Navai:That's right.
25:38Anita:So the whole thing is farcical.
25:40Ramita Navai:The optics were terrible. Yeah. I mean, there's so many ironies about the Riding Revolution, but one is that actually the Shaw and Carter at that first meeting, there was very much a meeting of their minds. They liked each other, genuinely. But the optics couldn't have been worse.
25:54William:Ramita, is there anything happening currently which echoes that in the 1979 era?
26:02Scott Anderson:Well, there's been a real shift in the last few years from Iranians wanting reform from within. And this is really hard for some exiles to accept. But certainly when I was there, the last time I was there, you know, Iranians did not want outside intervention and they thought that the kind of most peaceful way to getting rid of the regime was reform from within. They've realized that's not going to happen. And so the calls from Iranians are very clear now that they want the regime toppled. And we're talking about figures, you know, just to clarify, there's been quite a
26:37William:lot of elections in Iran. But the list of those eligible to stand for elections are picked by the supreme leader.
26:47Scott Anderson:Yes, but Guardian Council. The Guardian Council. So a body of jurists.
26:50William:So they weed out anyone who actually will do any sort of genuine reform.
26:55Scott Anderson:Exactly. And where you've had famous reformists, leaders like Khartami, you've seen very little change, you know. So absolutely now what we do know, we're talking about, you know, how numbers and being impossible, because polling is illegal in Iran, to really know what Iranians are thinking. What we do know is that the majority of Iranians want this regime toppled. And I tell you something else, the Islamic regime also knows that the majority of people, its citizens, want it toppled. And I tell you how we know that. During the Women's Life Freedom protests, there was a hack. We think it's probably an Israeli group hacked into an Iranian newspaper.
27:39Scott Anderson:And two interesting things came out of this hack. One of them was that they managed to get footage of, I think it was the economics journalist masturbating at his desk. So that's, yeah, that's by the by. The second, which is far more important. Ew.
28:00Anita:Resume your story.
28:02Scott Anderson:The second more illuminating fact that we got from that is that they managed to hack into a missive, a bulletin that's sent to IRGC top brass. So we now know that the regime knows that its citizens are against it. And of course, that's most obvious because of the killing spree that's happening now, the rate of killing. The regime is fighting for its life.
28:28Anita:So we've now actually, I mean, because I feel like these programs with you two are going to be a lot about similarities because, you know, there are so many. But this is one fundamental difference that right now you're saying that everybody is aware of the fact there is trouble ahead. In 1979 or 77, 78, 79, it seemed as if nobody was aware of how close to falling. The Carter administration, the island of stability, the Shah himself, not at all conscious of the fact that people hated him and wanted to go.
29:02Ramita Navai:That's right. And the worst intelligence I have ever come across about the situation. Yes, there was no intelligence of the West, and certainly of the Americans. They were doing nothing. So the Iranian revolution was very odd in that it basically transpired over 14 months. there are all these highs and lows and giving the benefit of the doubt to people who should have seen it coming um there were long periods when it looked like it was going to fizzle out and and of course the shah had been in power for 37 years at that point so it's very you with most revolutions there's this steady tightening of tension and violence it's got again another neat parallel
29:38William:is the the economics that's right because the economics have been very good at the beginning or the early part of the Shah's reign. That's right. Oil revenues had been restored to Iran. The Iranian economy was booming. Right. And then there was this moment when it effectively overheated.
29:55Ramita Navai:That's right.
29:55William:And it was the economic factors that brought people out to the streets. Because there was a feeling that the elite were looting the country. That's right. And that the people, particularly in the villages, the conservative Iran, which is unchanged in many ways for a century or so, was losing out. And there was a center periphery thing. And there was a class thing. Yep. But most of all, there was an economic thing.
30:20Ramita Navai:That's right. And what had happened with the boom that had started in 1974 with the quadrupling of oil prices, you had millions of mostly young men coming in from the countryside to try to get their little piece of the Iranian economic miracle. And these were men living in shanty towns on the outskirts of every Iranian city, especially Tehran. South Tehran. Yeah. the difference in income between urban and rural Iran in 1977 was seven to one. And the countryside had been gutted. So anybody with any sort of hope of getting ahead moved to the city. Then the economic, not a complete collapse, but certainly a deep recession.
31:01Ramita Navai:And now you have these millions of young men, again, primarily young men from religious backgrounds, out of work or severely underemployed in the cities. Well, not even from religious backgrounds, but from religious families.
31:14William:Religious families, that's right. They weren't mullers or related to mullers, but they were conservatives. That's right. They believed in the religion to which they'd been brought up.
31:24Ramita Navai:That's right. And what's interesting is so much of what people are rebelling about today, it's official corruption, as you said. It's the elite who have milked the system for... In exactly the same way. In exactly the same way. The primary difference, of course, being the role of religion. But yeah.
31:42William:I've never been in my travels in Iran, and I went first a few years after the revolution, and then again more recently, is I've never been to any Islamic country in the world where the mosques are more empty today than in Iran. You go to Syria, you go to Lebanon, you go to any parts of India or the Middle East, and Egypt in particular, the mosques are rammed. But Friday prayers in Yazd or Isfahan or Tehran, there's a handful of old people at the front, and that is it.
32:10Anita:Well, look, we're going to draw this through a close bit. We've got another episode coming up with these two brilliant people talking about the parallels because we've only just really started scratching the surface. If you don't want to wait for that, mpodpoduk.com is where you can go become a member of the club and you get all of these episodes in a miniseries all together in one go. Till the next time we meet, it's goodbye from me, Anita Arnon. And goodbye from me, William Durimple.
32:34William:We recorded these episodes on January 17th, 2026. As of January 30, 2026, the US-based Human Rights Activist News Agency has confirmed that 5 ,459 protesters in Iran have died, and the organization is investigating 17 ,031 more. Two senior figures of Iran's Ministry of Health have reported that as many as 30 ,000 people have been killed. In such a volatile situation, predictions are difficult to make, and these figures are ever-changing, but relentlessly rising.
33:14William:Dear McDonald's, your breakfast menu, fire.
33:18Scott Anderson:Tens across the board. I could be happy with anything, even though I order the same thing every time. Thanks for not judging me.
33:27William:I'll try something new next time. Maybe. Right now for$6, get a big breakfast with hotcakes complete with a biscuit,
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33:41William:cannot be combined with any other offer.
33:42Scott Anderson:Ba-da-ba-ba-ba.
33:45Ramita Navai:LifeLock, how can I help? The IRS said I filed my return. But I haven't.
33:49William:One in four tax-paying Americans has paid the price of identity fraud.
33:52Ramita Navai:What do I do? My refund, though. I'm freaking out. Don't worry, I can fix this.
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34:01Anita:I'm so relieved.
34:03William:No problem. I'll be with you every step of the way. One in four was a fraud-paying American. Not anymore. Save up to 40 % your first year. Visit lifelock.com slash podcast. Terms apply.
From the publisher
In recent weeks, protestors have swarmed the streets in Iran in defiance of the regime, and it feels as if the country is on the precipice of a transformative change. Yet these scenes feel familiar. In the 1970s, mass protests led to a religious revolution which replaced a monarchy led by the Shah with the Islamic Republic of Iran. What can this history tell us about today?
To discuss the parallels between 1979 and 2026, William and Anita are joined by two leading experts on Iran: Scott Anderson, author of King of Kings, and Ramita Navai, documentary-maker and author of City of Lies.
Disclaimer: We recorded these episodes on January 17th 2026. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency has confirmed that 5,459 protestors in Iran have died, and the organisation is investigating 17,031 more. Two senior officials of Iran’s Ministry of Health have reported that as many as 30,000 people have been killed. In such a volatile situation, predictions are difficult to make and these figures are ever changing.
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