Data centers are adding an extra 220 gigawatts of electricity demand in the US. How can the grid cope? A second special episode from the ACORE Policy Forum

20:36And everybody's hit the ground running. So we're usually at capacity for our events, and we're at capacity for this one again. We got a ton of people because of the weather this week who came in virtually as well. And I think as I go around talking to everybody, the things that are driving it are reflective of the time that we're in. And there's a huge economic opportunity here for a lot of businesses. there's a need. And then there's a downside too, right? There's a threat to all this. So the economic opportunity is demands increasing, like we've never seen it before. We can define it. We can talk about that later.

21:14Ed Crooks:Certainly not, let's say in our professional lifetimes, not in our careers. Like maybe if you go back 70 years or something, we saw this kind of growth, but yeah. Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, you know, in the next four years, the geeky people in our industry like to say, Hey, it's 166 gigawatts that we need to put on in four years. Well, So how does somebody process that? It's the equivalent of adding 15 more New York cities onto the grid. And that's a legitimate number from a legitimate company that does demand forecasts. And the neat thing is, you know, forecasts - And I should say, Wood Mackenzie being one of those legitimate companies, I'm pretty sure that's our number.

21:48Ed Crooks:We're very much in that ballpark, yeah. So, you know, demand's increasing in a big way. And what is that demand bringing? So there's interest in the investment community. Of course, we represent a lot of banks and financial institutions that are investing in energy infrastructure. They're all here, just like they have been for the last few years, saying, we've got a lot of capital to deploy. We see the opportunity, and there are buyers out there, right? So there are investors. There are developers. There's a set of buyers out there to buy everything that gets done. And at the same time, we still have to build 15 New York cities worth a new generation in four years.

22:22So there's a viable market for this. So you might say, so where's the interest, and why do people need to come to the ACOR policy conference and all that? the interest in our conference is really around what's holding that up or what's preventing it. And there are a few things that fall into that. And we unpacked that over the last two days. So one is permitting, right? We had two congressmen in, you mentioned that before, who came in and talked yesterday about bipartisan policy aimed at getting to streamline permitting and what that would look like. So that's a big thing. So expediting, streamlining, permitting so that you can get to a reasonable approval on a new project within a couple of years instead of the eight to 17 years that it takes now.

23:04It's a lot of time. The second thing is policy. Okay. So we've got, and I break that into two buckets. The first one is trade policy. So you've got a lot of stuff going on in trade. It's super weedy. We can unpack that if you want to. But the bottom line is at the point that we're in now, where you're seeing a tremendous amount of supply chain and manufacturing still continue to shift to the United States, that we still, while that's happening, we still need to source a certain amount of the components that go into all these projects from overseas. Tariffs and other trade controls that are being put in place, you know, put a huge economic burden on that.

23:41You can actually price things out of the market through those, and they have their supply constraints as a result of those. So that's the second thing that's slowing things down. And then the third thing is really permits that are being held up and approvals that are being held up in different agencies. So you think about all the things that you need to go through to bring an energy project online. So it could be conventional, it could be a natural gas project, could be a pipeline project, could be a solar project, a wind project, right? And there are areas in the government, they're bottlenecks.

24:11Department of Interior is one of them right now. The Department of Defense is one of them right now. So all those things. So if we can solve for those kind of three buckets of things, we'll get to 2030 with a slight surplus. If we continue to have those roadblocks in place, we're going to wind up with shortages. And that's where the big thing comes in. Everybody's talking about two things, reliability, and that's pretty much supply. And the other one is affordability. What's the price going to be? And the Wood Mack person that came in earlier today had some new data, which was fantastic. 39 states in 2025 alone.

24:51This is what I loved about it because it was very present and real. We just came out of 2025. 39 states in 2025 experienced energy price increases last year. And here's the kicker. Most of those states, it was 6%, so 3 % above a cost of living increase. We never have that kind of increases in electricity rates. And that's indicative of what we're going to continue to see if we don't wind up building more supply and more transmission onto the system. And I think that's why you've got so much interest in what we did over the last two days. Right.

25:28Ed Crooks:I think that's really interesting. And I think that fits very well with what I'd been thinking about. One of the things that I was most struck by over the past couple of days is the debate about policy and about policy volatility. And of course, it's something that everyone in the industry always complains about. Everybody hates policy volatility. People want stability. People want to be able to plan for the long term. You've got these multi-year, in some cases, multi-decade investments that people are trying to make. And they hate policy changing from year to year. and we have had in the past 15 months some pretty extreme shifts in policy as you say on the tariff side tariffs going up and then just in the past week the decision from the supreme court striking down some of those tariffs and a lot of uncertainty created in the wake of that and also then with tax credits the big beautiful bill passing last year that took away tax credits for wind and solar power in particular so it does feel like there's been a lot of volatility What I thought was really striking about the conversations I've been hearing here is people saying, actually, there is the basis for bipartisan consensus now on energy.

26:41Ed Crooks:It may be possible to have less volatility in the future, essentially because of AI, basically, that AI is being identified as a national priority. It's a priority in economic terms, going to drive, hopefully, economic growth. It's absolutely a priority, people say, in national security terms, because it's very important for great power competition. If you're like a dual-use technology, it can have military as well as civilian applications in AI. And if the US gets left behind in the race to develop those most advanced capabilities, then it's going to fall behind as a great power. And that's not a future that anyone here wants to contemplate.

27:21Ed Crooks:And those issues are pretty bipartisan. And as you said, you had those two members of Congress speaking on the platform yesterday, Republican and a Democrat, both giving off pretty similar messages about the importance of AI, the importance of getting that developed, and therefore the importance of developing the energy infrastructure needed to support that. and saying that that's something you probably won't have big fights over in Congress in the future, and you may not have these big swings in policy to the same degree, because everyone agrees we need to get that infrastructure built. I mean, am I reading it right?

27:58Ed Crooks:Do you think that's right, that there's that kind of changing mood people are picking up on? Ed, as usual, I think you're pretty spot on. Yeah, and just adding some color to that. What we hear from the administration, and we had an assistant secretary from the Department of Energy here yesterday that talked about this as well, So a good representative from the administration, there's a lot of commonality where everybody wants to go and what the vision is. And I think you just did a good job at highlighting that. If you go out four years to 2030 and we talk about the demand increasing, here's what we hear.

28:28We hear from Democrats and Republicans, the administration as well as representatives in Congress and the Senate. We want to get to the point where, you know, electric supply meets the demand that we have. And they want it for several reasons. You highlighted it. One is supply meeting demand means that there is at least equilibrium, right? There are market forces in place that are putting downward pressure on prices so you don't get these wild price swings like the 6 % increase in retail electric rates, right? So that's the first thing. The second thing is we want reliability. We want to have all that power there, not only to keep the lights on at home.

29:03I don't know. You live in New York. I live up in Boston most of the time. Everybody, a lot of people lost power during the storm, you know, all that. So you want enough power out there and you want the grid in place that everybody's got power 24-7 and all that. And that's a big piece of it. So commonality on that piece as well. And then the third piece, and you touched on this, is really international competitiveness for the United States. The Trump administration and the president would talk about America first. They would talk about, you know, developing in America, buying America, all those different things.

29:34I hear commonality about that issue from Democrats and Republicans as well. Where it starts to get a little wonky is when you get into the details. Now, everybody wants to talk about this stuff at a high level, right? I've been in energy for over 25 years. There is nothing really simple about our energy system. You know, when you start to break down how an electron moves through the lines and the pressures, I mean, you get into some pretty wonky stuff fast. Balancing the grid is not just a question of, I've got a market for widgets and I need to produce so many widgets to meet that market. It's much more complex than that.

30:10So when you take it down a level, details start to really matter. And when you start to talk about things like permitting reform and you get into NEPA reform and then you get into other things that are related to that so you can get to a yes or no decision within a couple of years, details really start to matter there. And that's where I was very excited to hear the two congressmen who came in yesterday and talk about that. I think just to pick on permitting reform for a minute and on the detail piece, the interesting thing is going to be when that gets to the Senate, where it technically is now, a couple of senators on the Democratic side have said, look, we can come together on the details of what this is going to look like.

30:51But at the end of the day, because there are really projects that are ready to go, that are under construction or they're about to begin construction, that are being held up at the Department of Interior and in other places, we want what they're calling is really permitting certainty around those so that those agencies that are reviewing the permits do what they've always done. You go through, you do your analysis, you move the permits along, and they go through. They either go through or they don't go through. Right now, it's just they're not moving. So we need to get to a point where they're there.

31:23I think if people are in deal mode, air quotes, on the administrative side, the Senate and the House side, we'll get to yes on permitting reform. And I think that kind of dynamic that I just mentioned for permitting reform could play out on some of the other big issues, as long as you've got people that, number one, recognize that the solutions are highly complex, require detail. And if we can get there, like I said before, the market is really in place that will just take this stuff and will make sure it all gets done.

31:56Ed Crooks:Right. And again, going back to that point about policy volatility, something I heard people say, which I thought was a really important point a couple of times raised on the platform over the past couple of days, is that it really helps to have legislation passed and in place. administrations can do a lot and you can do a lot with regulation but that can change and that'll change rapidly according to which party has control of the administration if you get legislation passed to get rid of that you need to get more legislation passed in congress which can be difficult so once you've got it enshrined in law it can generally be a lot more stable the policy has a good chance of lasting for longer.

32:40Ed Crooks:And so that's the thing I think a lot of people want to see. And again, talking about sort of alliances forming and people sharing a common cause, something I heard someone say yesterday was it's been really striking to see how the oil and gas industry and the renewable energy industry are very much aligned on this. And there's a lot of commonality in terms of thinking that we need to get progress on this for everyone's benefit, no matter what type of energy infrastructure you're trying to build in the United States, it's been too difficult, it's taken too long, it's been too expensive, it's been too easy for people to stop it, and that needs to change.

33:21Ed Crooks:And that's what legislation could do, is change that in a lasting way. I mean, as you say, a lot of complexity to it, a lot of detail around that. I suppose, you know, give me your view on how that's likely to play out. Do you think we actually get a bill passed this year, for instance? Oh, Ed, I'm going to go back for a minute. So you can probably tell I got some gray hair on my head. So I've been around long enough and I've been in the energy industry long enough to remember back when, you know, renewables weren't even a thing. Right. And everything was coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, stuff like that.

33:52Right. And and and then the renewables grew and got there. I think what we're talking about now and what those two congressmen talked about, about coming together on common solutions has been too long in the coming. And the bifurcation or the politicization of conventional versus renewables never should have taken place. It always should have been, what's the best electron that we're out there? But past is the past, and it is. The issue that I'm getting to that ties in with the volatility portion and the policy volatility is we sort of reap what we sow here. Democratic administrations have favored renewables and have have disfavored fossil and conventional generation.

34:36Republican administrations, for the most part, have done the opposite. And we're seeing that play out once again now. That world before when that was going on was much different than today. That world before the pie of demand for electricity was finite. You didn't see really more than a couple of percentage points a year of demand growth. for the longest time, you and I have been around for a while, we remember that. The last 24 months, that world changed completely. We are now no longer dealing with if this electron doesn't make it onto the system, then it'll be replaced by something else. Or if something new is coming on, it was replacing something else, right?

35:18Now it's, hey, this is all oars in the water. This to meet this demand increase for the AI stuff, for data center, for electrification, for everything. We not only need everything that we've got now that's in operation and operating, generating electricity, we need all this other new stuff as well. And the only way we're going to get there is to build everything. So my hope is where I hear Democrats and Republicans saying the same thing, and my friends at the American Petroleum Institute and others, we're all tired of being whipsawed from the policy going back and forth. My hope is that we do get to that point where this is just about America now, getting every electron onto the grid and then moving forward.

36:05If you want, later we can talk about China because the juxtaposition between America and China is stark. But back to you.

36:13Ed Crooks:Well, yeah, go on. Tell me about China because then I want to come back to my previous question about, as you say, that's your hope is that the parties will come together on this. I then want to talk to you about your expectation. But before we get to that, let's talk about China. What's the point you want to make there? The two superpowers in the world, the United States and China, both have the same issue or opportunity or threat, which is demand is increasing at a pace that nobody really expected at this point in time. And that's where the similarities go away. United States, we just did a pretty good job of defining that.

36:48We're playing catch up now. And the catch up that we need to do is extraordinary. 166 gigawatts to build new supply plus transmission. Never done anything like that before. That's a lot in four years. But we just talked, there's a roadmap to get there. China started planning for this a while ago. And their approach was build everything and build everything at scale. So some statistics. They've got the same opportunity that we do. Demand is increasing. They want to win the AI race, data centers, all that stuff, right? That's the driver for it. So what are they doing to meet that? Transmission. They outbuilt the U.S.

37:24in this way. Last year, they built the equivalent of 40 % of the entire United States power system in one year in transmission and generation. Those numbers are amazing. It's staggering, isn't it?

37:38Ed Crooks:It's just breathtaking. 50 states, and they built 40 % of what we've got in a year. In 2024, this is the best number I have, they outspent the U.S. three to one in terms of dollars for transmission and generation. And they're building everything. And then let's look at the technologies you're building, because I get this question all the time. They're building, you know, renewable solar, wind, battery storage. They're building, you know, new coal. They're building nuclear. And they're building geothermal and hydro. So all those things kind of things that we have here, but they're doing those things at scale.

38:10So the question I get is, yeah, but they're doing more coal, right? Or they're doing more baseload or firm or whatever. And they're not. Solar is like five to one over, I think, the next closest thing. Wind is right in there too. And the other stuff, the coal, the thermal, the nuclear are all down a ways on it. And you got to ask yourself the question, why are they doing that at scale? And it's the things that we know here that the data plays out. solar and especially solar paired with batteries is it's fast to build it's extremely cost effective to build and it's it's cheaper there's no fuel costs associated with it it's all those things but then you get into the discussion about you know the complexity of the grid and firming and all those other things they've got all the other technologies out there around it so you know when solar is going to produce you know when it's not going to produce you can take advantage of that You can use it when it's producing at a large level to charge batteries.

39:11So when you have a complex and diversified system, the way they've set up at scale, you can get that downward pressure on prices first. So you've got the supply you need and you get the grid so that you can move it around in the way that you need to so that, you know, you can, you know, through grid enhancing technologies and other things, you know what's on the grid at any given point in time. you know when certain lines can handle more power and when they can't, and you can make adjustments on that way. We don't have a modern grid like that. We're talking about grid-enhancing technologies, advanced transmission technologies, and others.

39:47You had Alex Fitzsimmons in here from the administration yesterday talking about this as well. Yeah, I was just about to say,

39:53Ed Crooks:I was interested to hear him mention that very specifically. That was kind of quite an encouraging sign. I thought the administration is definitely kind of on the case on that one. Yeah. So China, you know, not only do they does do they have equilibrium now with supply meeting demand and they've got the system to move it around, but they're already planning for the future on that. So they know that AI is going to continue to drive more load and they're planning for additional resources to do that. And of course, here we've already defined that. And look, if we're going to win the AI race, which is everybody's thing, shouldn't we just be building everything and doing that instead of not building certain technologies, which are fully funded and in some cases permitted, it's like fighting the AI race with two hands tied behind your back.

40:37Ed Crooks:So we ought to wrap it up. I ought to let you go. Just before I do, final thought then for a message coming out of this event. We're just up the road from Capitol Hill in one direction, the White House in the other. What's the message you would want to send to Congress and to the administration in terms of what the energy industry really needs in terms of policy? We're it's it's really simple. And as a is a lifelong policy government affairs guy, it pains me to say this because I'm usually looking for policy solutions for things. It goes like this. We've got the buyers. We've got the market, the investors.

41:13We've got the developers that want to do that want to do this. We've got a viable market. The only thing standing in the way to achieving the objectives that politicians as well as consumers want is policy right now. And it's trade policy, it's tariff policy, it's roadblocks at agencies, and it's permitting reform. If we do certain policies like balance the trade piece for the time being while we continue to shift supply chains and build manufacturing here, if we take the boot off of the roadblocks in the agencies and if we streamline permitting reform, we're there. We win. So my hope is that, and those things aren't all that complicated to do.

42:00Ed Crooks:Well, definitely want to talk to you again soon to find out how much progress is being made in those areas, but going to leave it there for now. But again, as I say, thank you very much indeed for inviting us. Been fantastic to be at this event and great to talk to you just now. Thanks, Ed. Really appreciate it. Cheers. Finally, we spoke to some entrepreneurs who are building the energy businesses of the future and are being supported by ACOR's Accelerate program. And I started off by talking to Kimberly Johnston, who's the founder and CEO of the solar and storage company NextGen Energy. NextGen Energy is solving the electricity crisis facing America and, quite frankly, worldwide.

42:35And for the first time, we're dealing with an aging grid, 140-plus years old, and an exponential rise in demand at a time where we have power outages and rising electricity costs. And so what we're trying to do is solve that problem. And how we're solving it is the commercialization of distributive energy resources. So think about just local generation paired with storage. We started off where we were working with U.S. states. So after the infrastructure bill was passed, we worked with the state of Louisiana. Since I am a former utility executive, certainly serving on the Gulf Coast on these horrific events.

43:21And so we partnered with Louisiana to go after one of the top 10 U.S. DOE awards on grid innovation. And we won that. But as we know today, those shovel-ready projects are still shovel-ready. and so we're pivoting and going to a commercialization model that's a national replica model. So our clients, to your question, are really municipalities and critical infrastructure owners and operators. So we want to make sure that hospitals, the lights stay on for hospitals, for fire stations, for water treatment plants. We continue to see in these horrific storms, not only do you lose power, but you lose all the essential services.

44:06And there's loss of life. So we really want to prevent loss of life, lower electricity costs, and really then use these assets on blue sky days where the cities and the communities have something they can monetize.

44:20Ed Crooks:Right. So what do you need now to help you scale up? What would really accelerate your growth? It's really what making those connections, making those contacts in your customer base, your target market. Yes. That's what you really need. Exactly. And generally how we approach that is there are, through government affairs, but because it is so a localized solution, you really need local people that make our, these distributive energy really embraced by the local community. So they truly understand the benefits and that these are zero-risk technologies. They're here in our market today. They're affordable, and they can really provide tremendous value, alleviate storm anxiety, again, reduce that electricity bill so families aren't choosing to put food on their table or pay their electric bill.

45:20So that's why we want those kind of relationships. Thanks, Ed, for having me on here. My name is Saxon. I'm the CEO of Polaris Ecosystems. what we're trying to solve is really a gap in infrastructure development for particularly tribal communities, but also rural communities broadly. There's a lot of underinvestment, particularly when it comes down to energy infrastructure. We have legacy assets that are aging that have not been maintained. And the problem is a lot of folks don't know how to connect with these communities. So I'm a member of the Osage Nation out of Oklahoma, here in the United States.

45:49We've done a lot of work with, for example, the Rappahannock in Virginia, the Shoshone Paiute now with the Idaho and Nevada border. And really what we're discovering everywhere is there's a lack of real attention and energy placed on new generation systems. Transmission infrastructure is cutting through tribal lands without maybe enough consultation, at least enough for the tribes to feel like they're engaged and involved. So what we do is everything from the development side to stakeholder engagement to the professional services for planning for tribal utility authorities and really working to make sure that that investment can actually reach these communities and get that economic development moving in Indian country.

46:28Ed Crooks:And in terms of what you need to accelerate the growth of the company, what you need to scale up, what are the most important things for you? Well, I think for me, one of the things for a lot of folks that they don't really realize is that tribal nations really want this investment. They're really seeking this out. They need employment, they need staffing, and they need infrastructure. But the problem is a lot of folks just don't know how to communicate from a traditional development space. So they'll come to communities, they'll make an attempt, usually in their best effort. But the problem is there's a lot of communication gaps.

46:59So what we really need is for folks in the traditional development space to reach out to us if they're trying to work with tribal communities, because we can help with that language transition, that language translation for folks, making sure that they can actually reach people, get those benefits into the community, and really see that. One of the things that we like to focus on and a lot of the conversations we're having at this conference and at many other places on this podcast as well is how can you add certainty to capital markets? How can you add a level of clarity about what's moving forward?

47:28And so people like to focus on, you know, a federal political climate right now in the United States. We like to shift that and say, there's other aspects of certainty, even if you can't de-risk from an investment perspective, every, you know, regulatory body right now. And really that's been challenging for quite some time. What you can do is understand your assets better. And so that's what we're hoping to be able to do to take some of the risk out of, for example, working with tribal nations. We have met with a lot of folks. They invest millions of dollars beginning the development of these assets.

47:59And then all of a sudden they run into this stakeholder engagement issue because they start it too late. They do it in the wrong way. They're not necessarily intending to do it in the wrong way. It just ends up happening. So what we can end up doing is pulling that back and saying, look, let's get you that certainty upfront. So you know, by the time you're actually putting shovels in the ground, there's not going to be those protests. There's not going to be those challenges because everyone there is happy to do it. They have the jobs, they have the education, and there's that cultural engagement that really is important for folks.

48:29Ed Crooks:So I'm joined now by Ebony Seymour, who's the CEO and founder of Element Group. So tell us a bit about Element. You founded the company. What problem were you trying to tackle? In short, the talent shortage. I think there are a lot of companies within the space that are looking for talent. And the kind of sentence that you hear all the time is, we can't find great talent. And so one of the things that I wanted to do is really highlight talent across the industry, but also help bring individuals from adjacent industries into the space. Ro, what do you think the fundamental reasons for that are?

49:06Ed Crooks:As you say, it's something you hear a lot. You can't find the people we need. You hear about wage inflation going through the roof. Everyone's complaining about how much they have to pay to get good people. What do you think the causes of the problem are? I think there's a couple of things. One, I think that there's a reluctance to enter the space because people that are outside of renewable energy may see it as still turbulent in a newer industry. I think, two, people aren't looking. I think companies are a bit more reactive versus being proactive with talent. And I would say the third thing is that the companies that are doing it well, their talent wants to stay.

49:45And so they're not able to move across the industry and help with training up new talent as well.

49:52Ed Crooks:So what does your business need now to scale up? What would really help accelerate your growth? Yeah. One thing that I definitely need is strong partnerships. And I have strong partnerships today, but I want to increase and scale that. And then operational excellence is something that I'm striving for today. And what are the partnerships you need, you think? What do you want to develop more of? Yeah, I want to work with investment companies and private equity firms more and help them with placing talent across their portfolio companies. And I think that will, number one, increase visibility for the business.

50:24Number two, give a steady stream of workflow across the industry. But also it would help me with growing my team.

50:32Ed Crooks:And what kind of a response do you get from those private equity companies and other investors? Do you think they're focused on these issues? Is this question of talent and skill shortages something they're kind of ready to address? Yes and no. I think one of the things that is hard when thinking about increasing the talent within the industry is that you do have to invest into upskilling and you have to invest into training and workforce development. And I think that's an area when you think about investors and you think about private equity, they are, at the end of the day, they have to make a profit on their investments.

51:08And so oftentimes they want to bring individuals that have the experience that's already needed into roles. And so people in the industry move from company to company that have the same experience. And so we need to really upskill, like, growing talent within the industry.

51:25Ed Crooks:Everybody see you all. Thanks very much indeed. Thank you so much. So that's all from us for the ACOR Policy Forum for this year. Thanks to Ebony Seymour, Saxton Metzger, Kimberly Johnston, Anna Spitzberg and Arthur Haubenstock. Many thanks in particular to Ray Long for hosting us at this fantastic event. Thanks to our producers, Dan Cottrell, Harry Weston Cottrell and Toby Biggins-Gilchrist. And above all, as ever, many thanks to all of you for listening and for watching. We really value your feedback, so please do keep that coming. You can leave us a comment here or contact us on social media.

51:56Ed Crooks:and we'll be back next week with a discussion on virtual power plants and energy storage with Tesla. Until then, goodbye.