The Football Reporters: Has a dry January set up a big summer window?

26:00I think if Havertz was still out for a long time or they had concerns about his durability in the second half of the season to play consistently, then you'd probably think maybe they should go in and do one more. But I think to... Because the other thing, of course, is if they'd gone late here and sort of panic bought or panic loaned, you are risking upsetting a squad that is really well balanced, is united and is driven and determined by, you know, their goal to win trophies. And, you know, and also, I mean, you know, Mikel Arteta's talking on Friday about how he wants increased squad sizes because he's worried that he's got to leave too many players out every week.

26:40Well, if he adds another player into that mix and Marino comes back before the end of the season, as our colleagues in Spain believe he will, then you're creating yourself more of a problem further down the line. I think if Marino was starting every single week and was absolutely, you know, If this had been Gabriel or Saliba or Declan Rice or Zubimendi, one of the really key players in their team, then I think you could make a stronger case for it. But I think because Marino is just a bit of a level below that, I think whatever happens from here, if they don't win the league, it won't be because they missed out on signing somebody to replace Marino in January.

27:17So, just cover Chelsea before we wrap up. Obviously, it's impossible to predict what happens at Chelsea during any transfer window. I mean, they've been relatively quiet this time. But I think the one question that keeps getting asked is, why is Cole Palmer still being linked with Man United? I mean, that isn't going to happen, is it, surely? Well, I think the genesis of that is that he has never quite settled in London. I don't think there's any secret of that. I think, and Rob will probably know this better than I do, but I think he goes home. Is it with and sure he's from? He goes home to Manchester quite a lot, doesn't he?

27:51and he's not... I don't think he's unhappy at Chelsea but I don't think it's his spiritual home. Let's put it that way. But what we've never seen with Chelsea and these long contracts that they give out to players is how easy it is for a player to try and get out of it and that would be what would have to happen. Chelsea have no interest in selling Cole Palmer. He's the poster boy for the Bowley Clear Lake era. They feel he's the best player they've got in the team. You know, he's the creative heartbeat at the side. He makes such a difference when he's there and playing. And they want him, you know, to grow and develop into what they hope will be, you know, could become one of the best players in the world.

28:32They want that to happen at Stamford Bridge. Now, you know, a lot of these long contracts, we've sort of been talking about why would players commit themselves to that. Well, you know, the idea is that, you know, you grow together as a team. you sign these kids when they're 18, 19, 20, 21, and you incentivise these contracts. And, you know, Cole Palmer was somebody who was on a very modest wage, actually, when he joined Chelsea. But his appearances and his goals and his assists triggered automatic contract renewals that bumped his money up quite heavily. So he's very well paid at Chelsea now. He's not one of the guys who's on one of those long-term contracts having to trigger that sort of further down the line.

29:15So you wouldn't have thought money would be a factor. And because of the length of the deal, I don't have it in front of me. I think he's 20, 32, 31, 32, something like that. So you're talking about an awfully long contract that he would have to try and extricate himself from. And is it even possible for a player to do that? It would have to be Isak times 10. He'd have to go on strike. He'd have to refuse to train, tell the club he's never going to play for them again. And even then they might not allow it to happen. So it's difficult to see it, but I think the root is spiritually he probably wants to be back in Manchester.

29:51I mean, this is one, like you said, the contract situation is so long. The fear that it would cost you, like United would be, I'd imagine beyond United, but I guess this would be the acid test of Chelsea's owners, whether they see themselves as a football club that wants to build a team or a corporation that just wants to profit on players and, you know, buying for 40 million, selling for 80 million, whatever. But I guess that's impossible to put it. but Rob, do you see a scenario whereby Bruno Fernandes may lead Man United this summer and the replacement is called Parma or is it just too fanciful in terms of the fee?

30:21I'm sure that he would certainly be on the list and it is possible that Fernandes leaves. United are kind of saying that they've been a bit firmer this time than they were last time. Last time it was kind of, it's up to him. This time they're sort of saying we really want him to stay but that doesn't mean that he will. They think that he's going to have a lot of offers so it is possible that Bruno leaves at the end of the season. And if that were to happen and you were looking for someone to fill that number 10 role, Cole Palmer would have to be on that list, however fanciful it may be. Because James is right.

30:51United are well informed about his situation at Chelsea. They know that he's a boyhood Man United fan. They know that he's not particularly settled in London. He does come up to Manchester a lot to see friends and family. I think James is right. I don't think that it's that he's unhappy at Chelsea. It's more just he prefers spending his time in Manchester because that's where his friends and family are. And so United are well aware of that and could sort of play on that a little bit. The problem, though, comes with his contract situation. His contract is so long, the fee that it would take would be absolutely monstrous.

31:27And if United are saying, as they are, that their main area of concern is deeper line midfielders, so a Wharton or an Elliot Anderson, if you pay£100 million for one of those players and it's possible that the FIFA, Elliot Anderson, may stretch to 100 million or at least between 80 and 100. Have you got another 100 plus? And I'm sure it would take 100 plus to get Cole Palmer out of Chelsea. Probably not. I think United's view of it is he is someone who they would like to have at some stage, but there's no kind of timeline for it. Obviously, things would change if Palmer made it clear to Chelsea that he wanted to leave because that would put them immediately on the back foot and I'm sure that United would try to take advantage of that.

32:12But you're talking about a load of, I mean, how many, what have I said, if about 20 times in the last two minutes, so that tells you where it's at. But I'm sure, I'm sure United's recruitment department are looking at him as someone who could, who could join them at some stage in the future. Whether it happens or not this summer, I'd be very, very surprised. I guess a lot depends on if United get themselves in the Champions League and the money that brings around and, you know, they're getting some big wage earns off the Wageville this year, but I think we all agree that it's an unlikely scenario.

32:41Is there anything, any more points of order, points of business we should mention before we wrap up this window? Any more big deals that we think will happen this summer? Beth, come on. Liverpool, this big last summer. I think that the thing is, considering Liverpool obviously spent a record-breaking amount of money last summer, £450 million, I think they're going to have another big summer again. I think there'll definitely be a lot of incomings and outgoings because as much as Liverpool signed a few really good players last summer and I think we're now starting to see the likes of Eketike and Florian Wietz that they're really starting to show the quality.

33:18I think Liverpool need at least one winger, probably two. Certainly, most Salagos, they need, again, at least one defender, maybe two, depending on what happens with Abrima Canate. They need probably a midfielder as well. So I think that they still probably need five or six players in the summer, which it's not very often you see clubs and certainly not very often you see Liverpool have a really busy summer. And then the next summer that they have to do the same again. So I think that the one thing to say is that Liverpool will always point out that, yes, they spent an awful lot of money last summer, but they also sold very well.

33:55And that's sort of, I guess, not necessarily what Arsenal did. I think one of the reasons Arsenal's squad is so good this season is because they brought in some real quality, but they didn't necessarily lose an awful lot of quality. So I think Liverpool feel like there's probably still room for manoeuvre in terms of financial rules and everything, because they did sell last summer. And I think they will probably have to offload a couple of big names potentially off the wage bill this summer. and Mo Salva I'm sure will be among the ones who is tipped to go anyway. The one we've not spoken about is one that James wrote about a week ago is Julen Alvarez and Arsenal's interest because he's a player that I saw up close at City.

34:41If he joins Arsenal, that is an absolute game changer. And I know that in the piece that you wrote, you said that it would take an awful lot to game Atletico Madrid and the fee that would be involved. But if Arsenal were to sign him, that is an unbelievable signing in the summer. to add to what they've already got, I mean, that would put, in my mind, that would put Arsenal on a different level. Yeah, and I think that's how they see it. They've got a problem, really, in that they signed Victor Jochores last summer. He could still come good, but he's fighting a mounting weight of evidence to the contrary.

35:20And what do you do with a player like that? You know, they signed him as a win now signing. They could win the title, of course. He could be the striker that I think he's got six Premier League goals to his name. He is their top scorer in the Premier League and they could win the league. So who are we to sit here and criticise him if it's your career? But I think if you look at the general picture of their forward line, Gabriel Jesus will have a year left in the summer. He talked in Milan about how he'd like to sign a new contract. I'm sure he would on the money he's on. I don't think he's going to get one.

35:51so I think it may be a case that he moves on and if he does and if there are still question marks about Jokeres which I suspect there will be come the end of the season and you've got Kai Havertz whose injury or fitness record is now in doubt given his troubles over the last three years or so there's an obvious hole to fill and yeah from what I was told Alvarez is very very high on their list as you say I feel the same way about it in that I think he ends all doubt about whether they have a top class centre forward to just sort of finish off that team and he can do everything kind of you know we sort of talk about Jochores and Jesus and Havertz and Marino obviously is now injured just sort of being horses for courses and they can fit different styles, different systems whatever you just think Alvarez can do it all really got that pedigree at the highest level and And Andrea Berta, the sporting director, could be sort of acing the hole for them there because, of course, he knows he worked at Atletico for so many years.

36:55He actually did the deal that brought Alvarez to Atletico Madrid and he remains close with the players' camp. So you kind of feel as though there are so many sort of obvious inns there for Arsenal that if they were to pursue that deal, they'd start on stage 10 rather than stage 1. And yeah, it would be a big money deal. The talk in Spain is 100 million euros plus. And that's really just to start the conversation. But from what we were told, actually Arteta was speaking about this today. You know, there is, despite the fact that they spent big a billion quid in six years under Arteta and they spent a quarter of a quarter of a billion in last summer on eight new players.

37:39They are talking as though they've got cash to go again in the summer. Of course, if they win the Premier League, if they win the Champions League, they've got huge prize money coming in there. That'll only help. I think it's a deal that they would like to do. I think Arda Guglia at Real Madrid is another one that they are very keen on. And this is the kind of level that they're looking at now. And this is what they feel Berta can give them. I think these players in the past, they would have been a little bit... I know they did Declan Rice, but I feel that was a little bit different because he was at West Ham.

38:11I think in the past they'd have looked at these top young players, obviously Alvarez is a little bit older, but these top players at top European clubs and maybe thought, I'm not sure whether we can necessarily get these players out. You know, you think about some of the talent that they've brought in, they're not buying at the absolute peak level. You know, Odegaard obviously was somebody who came in, who had a checkered reputation. Saliba they brought in from France, Gabriel. Real, they're not players they've signed from really top class. Even Zubimendi from Real Sociedad, you know, you're not talking about Europe's elite clubs that they're signing from.

38:48But I think that's what they see as Berta, somebody who can give them that. And obviously Alvarez would fall into that category. I still think if Arsenal are in a race with Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, they'll still come fourth, even if they win the league. I think they have to still convince a lot of players that they are the big club, the big superpower that they're trying to be. I still think that the other clubs have got more appeal, but we'll wait and see. But if they win the title, I mean, wages, they're prepared to offer top wages now. That's the other thing that Arsenal weren't always sort of willing to do.

39:19And if they are champions of England, I don't think they'll win the Champions League, but if they are champions of Europe, with that squad and the talent they have and the opportunity they have to build and develop together, it's a good age, that group. They're going to stay together for a while, you'd think. It's an appealing proposition.

40:09so it was a really significant weekend of the premier title race arsene had six points clear after beating leeds at ellen road man city failed to respond at the weekend throwing out a two-goal lead at tottenham to draw 2-2 so so james you were at both games you were at leeds before you went to tottenham on on saturday and i mean you picked two great games it was a great weekend to kind of suggest that the title race was wasn't decided this weekend but it's certainly a significant weekend? Yeah, it was. And I think everybody, you know, it was a late decision really to go to Ellen Road. And that was partly because obviously of what had happened before against United and just the kind of mood around Arsenal had darkened quite considerably off the back of that result.

40:49And suddenly four points, the four looked a very small number. And I think everybody thought, you know, obviously Leeds have been very good at home this season and in quite good form recently that it sort of felt like it could be another chance for Arsenal to slip up and City would be then you know right back in the mix for winning the league so and I have to say it was probably their most complete performance of the season or certainly up there with it right from the minute one they just they suffocated their life out of Leeds and actually sort of made me thinking afterwards and maybe we were I think was guilty of this and think a lot people were after the United game thinking, well, something's got to change.

41:32Arsenal have to slightly adapt the way they play. They've got to be a bit less risk averse. They've got to, you know, just introduce a little bit more dynamism into their play. What they actually did was double down on the sort of Arteta control, you know, sort of style and make that the most efficient, ruthless version of themselves. Because it was just the epitome, the archetypal Arteta are Arsenal performance. Control the game, dominate possession, gain an advantage through your set-piece prowess, and then bring your finishes on in the second half to kill the game really on the counter-attack.

42:09And obviously the scoreline was very impressive, 4-0 in the end. And that didn't really, you know, often when teams win 4-0, you think, oh, they've played brilliant football and rolled them over. Wasn't the case. They just had strangled the life out of Leeds for an hour and then brought on there, you know, with the power they've got. and we all talk about their squad depth to go and finish it off. So I think the biggest contrast having then watched City a day later was the fact that at 2-0, Leeds had their best spell of the game early in the second half, but they didn't create anything. They had one, I think, quite tame header from a corner that was an easy save for David Ryer.

42:44And Leeds were never able to just gain some momentum and get up ahead of steam and obviously score a goal that would have brought the crowd into it in a way that City then weren't able to replicate a day later. They raced into that two-goal lead at Spurs, but relinquished control in the second half. I thought it was a real noticeable contrast between the teams and will be a real source of validation, I think, for Arteta that his team was able to win that way with that level of control. Leeds had three shots in the whole game and never looked like a scoring. I mean, Leeds are a strange team, aren't they?

43:14And obviously the goalkeeping situation at Leeds helped because Carl Darlow didn't have the best of games, shall we say. But I mean, Leeds have beaten Chelsea at Elm Road, they drew Liverpool, drew Man United. so it is kind of a formidable place to go to but you're right Arsenal made it look really easy and I think that's that's the kind of like you said about Arteta sticking to his his tried and tested method that was the way to do it at Leeds because Leeds are a team that can play against a team that plays football but the strength of Arsenal I think that is a thing that is a key and in many ways it's almost like the media fraternity ourselves x players it's almost like bullying Arsenal to play in a bit more expansive football but Arteta's like this way works for me let's stick to this because it does work.

43:50Yeah, and also I think that was quite symptomatic with the line-up because he dropped Martin Odegaard a captain and for months there's been a debate about whether it's Odegaard or Eze. Do you want the control that Odegaard can bring you or do you want the sort of dynamism, unpredictability that Eberichi Eze can give you? And in the end, he went with Kai Havertz. And why did he do that? He did that because he wanted more physicality. He wanted to be able to press the ball better. He always talks about how good Havertz is off the ball. And he wanted to really dominate physically and have that absolute power in midfield to strangle the life out of Leeds.

44:29And again, it's just... It's Arteta's going to... The piece I did from the game was, you know, win or lose, they're going to do it Arteta's way. This is how they're going to do it. They're not going to become this more... You know, when he talked about, after the United game, he talked about, you know, jump on the boat, it's going to be fun. and enjoy the moment. None of that was about changing the style of football or opening up or being less risk-averse, as we talked about on the pod last week. That was all about, you know, let's be the very best version of ourselves because this is what's going to win the title.

45:04And, you know, they overcame adversity in the build-up. Of course, you know, Saka got injured in the warm-up. They chose not to risk him. Nonny Maduweke comes in. There's a bit of, you know, fortune in that that obviously Maduweke wasn't going to play, but he comes in, he starts and he's their most creative player. He's their biggest threat. His set-piece delivery was incredible. Of course, he basically scored direct from a corner. I think that goal has now been given to him, actually, rather than a Darlow-owned goal. You know, and obviously, Maduweki wouldn't have been anywhere near the team had Saka been fit.

45:35So there's a bit of luck involved. But, yeah, I mean, the physicality and the power that Arsenal have gives them such an advantage. it's just they've not been able of late to then align that with a goal threat but they did both on Saturday Rob I'll just bring you in a minute because I know you were at the game yesterday with James but before I just jump to that game having seen both teams back to back James have you been surprised by how unimpressive City were I mean I've seen City a bit recently and what really strikes me is that their midfield is pretty average to be honest it used to be the powerhouse of their team it's not the same anymore and obviously Semenyo's doing well for them and Haaland's not scoring goals but City for me They're not a team that looks like they can sustain a title challenge.

46:16Right now, it looks like a battle for second place between City, Villa, maybe Liverpool and Man United because City aren't capable of pushing Arsenal all the way. And having seen them both back to back in the space of 24 hours, did you see anything in City that told you that they can actually get back in the title race and stop Arsenal winning? It's a six-point gap now. Yeah, it was interesting to see them one day after the other like that. And obviously, Rob sees them more than I do. But you never got the sense with City. and actually I said this to Rob during the first half that when they were only 1-0 up why are they not going for the throat here?

46:47Why are they not killing this game off? Why are they not? You know Spurs were so bad it was so sterile the atmosphere in the first half it was a mixture of sort of apathy towards the general situation at Tottenham and their own team's performance and the fact that there was quite a considerable number in that crowd who were quite happy for their team to lose because it meant that they cut the gap City would cut the gap to Arsenal and of course they absolutely do not want to win the league and City didn't go for the throw. They didn't kill that game off and they didn't play with the same authority that Arsenal have done.

47:19And what we've seen in the last few weeks is Arsenal's authority in those matches just slip a little bit. Defensively, they've not been as resilient. They've allowed teams to play against them. You look at, and I thought Man United were very good at this. They were very brave. They kept going even at 2-2. They kept on the front foot trying to play and go forward. and Arsenal hadn't, they'd just lost that ability to stifle teams and to control the games as well as they had been earlier in the part of the season. I remember when they went to Fulham earlier in the season, they went 1-0 up and Fulham didn't have a shot of any description for the final half an hour, nothing at all.

47:56That's how good they were defensively. Whereas you always feel with this City team, you've got a chance. They let you play a bit. And that was not the case with the sort of vintage Guardiola sides, was it? it was always a case that they would score, they'd get ahead and they'd just keep the ball for an hour and you'd never even see it. Whereas they don't seem to have that, as you mentioned in midfield, they don't have that level of control and teams, you know, while they're 1-0 down, they feel they've got a chance to get back into the game. That's obviously what we saw with Spurs. Rob, do you think with City it's a case of there's such a sense of uncertainty around the club?

48:29Obviously, the 115 charges seems to be there forever, this big grey club that never seems to be resolved. But the Guardiola situation, there's so much noise there around his future. Do you think that's kind of infecting the team and the squad in a sense of uncertainty and that whether the players feel he's lost a bit of authority or something? Because they don't seem to have that togetherness that they had for eight, nine years under Pep. There's something that's definitely missing. Is it that or is it just a case that they've not bought as well as they've sold? No, I just, I mean, I think James has kind of hit the nail on the head there that in the past, Guardiola teams have had that control.

49:03And when you go, when they've gone 2-0 up in games, that would have been game over. And it's something that started happening last season. There was a Champions League game against Feyenoord where they were 3-0 up at home and then people were walking out of the stadium thinking that's probably it and ended up finishing 3-3. And we'd never, ever seen that with a Guardiola team. At the time, it was kind of brushed off as, you know, they've got a lot of injuries. It's not been a great season. It's just one of those things. But it's something that they've not really sold. I think part of the problem is obviously Rodri.

49:31In the past, Rodri is the guy that gives you that control because under any kind of pressure in any kind of situation. You give him the ball, he bounces it back and then you're out of the press and you're on your way kind of thing. You know, he was, well, is that good of a player. Just to me, at the moment, he just doesn't look the same. I don't think that he particularly trusts his body or he's at least still learning what his body can do and can't do after that knee injury. And it wasn't just yesterday on Sunday against Spurs. You've seen it in games all the way through the season when he's tried to come back.

50:02He just doesn't look the same player. he looks a little bit more fraught in the way that he plays. And I think that kind of infects the rest of the team. I mean, what happened at Spurs has been coming for a couple of weeks, really, that they kept clean sheets last week against Wolves and also Galatasaray. But after half-time, they looked quite vulnerable. In games where there was no need to look vulnerable, both those games were essentially already won. But just after half-time, Wolves and Galatasaray both got into it. Donnarum has had to make a couple of saves. in the end, he's been good enough to keep City from conceding a goal and City have then gone on to win the game.

50:40But that just didn't happen at Spurs, probably because they've got better players. And it was interesting after the game, and obviously me and James were both in the post-match news conference with Guardiola, and he says that momentum in the Premier League is very, very difficult to change when it switches in Premier League games. And I think that's probably true. But in the past, City have been able to resist whatever that is. and at the moment they just can't do it. And there is a sense of vulnerability. I think teams sense blood a little bit. And the worry for City was at half-time against Spurs, to me, it just came out of nowhere.

51:14There was nothing at half-time to suggest that that was going to change. And actually, during half-time, we were talking to our editors about what we were going to do for the game. I had already started writing most of my stuff about City. A game ticked off, matched the pace with Arsenal. Well done. Arsenal had gone and beaten Leeds, but City had done their job. And, you know, just in the second half, it switched almost in a couple of minutes. And actually, I thought they were lucky to get out of there with a draw in the end because Donnarumma made a couple of fantastic saves at 2-2. So there is a worry there for City.

51:46I still think that they're in this, in the title race. I still think they're capable of putting a run together. I think Gahey and Semenya are going to be a massive difference to them after they've played a few more games. But right now, obviously, Arsenal are on the box seat. You say that, Rob, about getting back into the title race, but their run in recent games, in the last six Premier League games, they've won once and that was against Wolves. So, and the next game is Liverpool away and they've had a terrible record at Anfield over the years and Liverpool obviously have their own things to chase.

52:10So, I mean, you've just said that they can get back into the title race. So I'll probably put this question to James, but are they title contenders or should they be looking over the shoulder in the race for top four? Because Liverpool, Man United, even Chelsea have got a bit of form now. Villa are still there and thereabouts. So what is City's priority right now to safeguard where they are or to push on for the title? No, I mean, they're still going for the title. I mean, Guardiola was asked after the game about whether there comes a point where he's going to have to prioritise competitions, given all the injuries they've had, and maybe not focus on the Premier League.

52:47And he sort of immediately dismissed that idea as being a bit foolhardy. And you can see why. I mean, look, I think we all went for City to win the league, didn't we, on last week's pod. So seven days on, we're now going, you know, but the issue really is that there isn't a standout runaway team in this league. And what has stopped me from saying Arsenal are going to win it, the only thing really that has stopped me from saying Arsenal are going to win it, is the fact that they've not done it before. They've not done it for 22 years. And I don't subscribe to the view that they've bottled it in the last three years.

53:26I think there was one season where they won almost all their games, lost just to Villa and City with the better team. I mean, that can happen, right?

53:38What I'm not convinced by is that City are going to be able to put the run together that we all expect them to do. And that's why I think we stumble over this, because Arsenal are the best team in the league with the strongest squad. They're six points clear. They should win the league from here. but they haven't done it under Michael Arteta and they haven't done it for two decades. Pep Guardiola's team is flawed, inconsistent, is more vulnerable than it's looked in years perhaps and yet they've won, what is it, six of the last seven, eight Premier League. So we expect them to come good and it's that kind of projection into the future of we're expecting Arsenal to take off and City to come good that we're just taking on trust and as the weeks go by, the more I'm just starting to think, well, actually, Arsenal won't have to be, they won't have to go to another level to win the league.

54:30They'll just grind it out the way they are now. But there's still this thing at the back of my mind that's telling me that Arsenal somehow find a way not to win it and City will come good. So I don't even know where to end that answer. Was that confusing enough for you? Did I sit on the fence enough for you both there? Point of order there, by the way. I'm pretty sure last week I said Arsenal win the league. I've stuck with them right from the outside. Oh, did you? Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry I think only because I don't think City are good enough to show any consistency they're not the City of old and I keep saying this and you know keep getting pulled up for it but I think if Arsenal win it this year they'll be the weakest champions for the last 10 years but that's not their fault it's because of the fault of the teams that are chasing them I mean even Villa slips up against 10-man Brentford at the weekend so Arsenal can only know what they can do and this is part I think this is part of the issue that Arsenal have is that you know they talked a lot in the summer about wanting to kick on and become a slightly different team a bit more of a dynamic team which is actually what's probably going to happen here is last season's team is good enough to win this league because City have dropped off, Liverpool have dropped off and Arsenal actually if they stay at the level of more or less where they were last season, playing the kind of football, you know, posting the kind of numbers that they did last season, that'll actually be enough to win the title.

55:39There's no criticism of Arsenal, you can literally only beat what's put in front of you but I think that, you know, when we've seen them wobble of late, it's because they're thinking, well, actually, do we need to break the cycle of our old habits? And I think that's why Saturday was so instructive, was that they decided, no, this is how we're going to win the league. This is how we believe we're going to do it. It may not be pretty and it may not yield win after win after win. We may draw the odd game because we don't take the ultimate risks, but actually it will be enough. Rob, I'm still picking City.

56:14There are 14 games left. I still think the City are right in it. The one thing I would say is all the way through this podcast, we've said about Arsenal is that we're not going to know about their mentality until they prove it. And for me, this weekend was the first time where they proved it. Forget the way, the tactical setup and all that kind of stuff. But given the noise after the United defeat, the tough place to go, which Ellen Road is, we all know that if Leeds get on top of you there, the fans get on top of you, it's a really tough place to play. They lost Akra in the warm-up to deal with all of that stuff.

56:43and then also to go and win 4-0 is really, really impressive. So you've got to give credit to Arsenal. For the first time, I think, this season, they've answered a question about their mentality and obviously that will set them in good head because like you said, James, when you've gone so close so many times and not got over the line, the question will be, are you capable of doing it? And so for the first time, I think this weekend, they probably proved it and I imagine that Guardiola will have looked at that and thought, the one thing that maybe we could rely on Arsenal imploding is maybe not going to happen.

57:16And that's where the lack of City's consistency come in. Are City still the same team who can win 14 Premier League games in a row? Probably not. And maybe it has been a very, very unpredictable season so far, but maybe they are going to need to win 12, 13 games in a row to pip Arsenal. Just moving on then, Mark, you were at Old Trafford to watch Man United against Fulham. it wasn't particularly convincing, particularly at the end, but it was another win for Michael Carrick. It's now three in a row, something that it took Ruben Amrim an awful long time to achieve. Michael Carrick's done it in his first three games.

57:53What did you make of United's performance? What was the mood kind of around Michael Carrick, I suppose, at the end? Because, you know, United is always the biggest story, but at the moment, it's Carrick, isn't it, and whether he's going to get that job permanently? The mood is pretty, albeit, actually. I thought United were quite convinced until 85 minutes, and obviously Fulham got back into the game with a penalty and that amazing goal by Kevin. But the fact that United pulled the victory out of the fire with Cesc Ossesco scoring in the 94th minute, that kind of tells you where United are at right now.

58:22And I think it's been the same as it's been for a while with United, that when they've got their best 11 on the pitch, they can actually beat anybody. But as soon as Casemiro was taken off on, I think, 70 minutes for Ugarte, the same thing happened again. I haven't got the stats to hand, but I know when United take Casemiro off, they tend to concede goals. And the issue for United right now is if they can keep that 11, that starting 11, 12, 13 players that he trusts together and fit, they've got a chance of finishing top three, I think, because Villa have had a bit of a wobble. They're without McGinn and without Thiel Lewis for the next two months.

58:53But if they start getting injured, it's the key players. If Casemiro gets injured, if Harry McGrady or Martinez get injured, then if the goalkeeper, Sani Lemons, gets injured, they've got a problem. But right now, things are going great. So the questions will be, is Michael Carrick the guy for the long term? I think it's only three games, so we have to kind of bear that in mind. But I do get the feeling that there's going to be some momentum building quite soon as to give him the job. Now, I'm not saying I subscribe to that, but I think that there will be a clamour for Carrick to get the job because the winning games, the winning games in kind of Man United's style of attacking football, they're getting the Fergie time goals as well.

59:27But he's also brought this kind of sense of calmness. It looks like he belongs on the touchline. I mean, at the end of the game yesterday, everyone on the ground was going crazy because it was such a tense situation. He stood there calm, no kind of histrionics whatsoever. But I do think we had this chat off camera that he's given United a problem now, Carrick, by doing so well because I'm pretty sure that when they appointed him as head coach until the end of the season, the idea was that it would stabilize it, get them in the top six, Europa League, and then move on in the summer with a sense of calm, restored, a sense of stability.

1:00:01But he's doing too well now in the sense that he's doing so well that they're going to have to consider giving him the job. and I don't think they wanted to do that. But then they'll be having that little voice in the back of heads thinking, well, if we don't give them the job, what happens if it all goes back to square one again with a new manager coming in and wanting different things, et cetera. So I think at some point in the next four to six weeks, United have to decide whether Carrick is a contender or if he's not. And if he's not, they have to say, we're not having Michael Carrick as coach because we want an elite coach who's won the Premier League, the Champions League, et cetera.

1:00:31Because United have got a big summer ahead in terms of recruitment, in terms of lots of things. If you're a player that they want right now, you want to know who the manager is. You know, other things like Harry Maguire, his contract expires in the summer. Does the new coach, whoever it is, want Harry Maguire to be part of an experienced back four? Or does the new coach want to go with youth in the sense of Lenny Yoro, Aidan Heaven, Kobe Manu? He's seen what can happen when the manager, your face doesn't fit. So players will want to know the manager coming in, what formation he plays, what plays he likes.

1:00:59And the longer that Michael Carrick is in situ as a temporary manager without any kind of indication as to what's happening next, United are losing time on the bigger situation of getting the manager in the summer. It could be Carrick, it could be Thomas Tuchel, it could be Calum and Jotti, but they can't wait until the summer to do that. They have to do it in the next four to six weeks, I think. How much do you get a sense from the conversations you've had with people at United that there's an obvious comparison with Solskjaer? Is there a sense among the decision makers that there is a warning from history here?

1:01:33And I'm not saying, well, I don't believe Carrick's the right man to get the Man United job personally, but it's hard to argue with what he's doing at the moment. But do you get a sense that they are fully aware of what happened with Solskjaer in a very similar situation and how the sentiment kind of, you know, the sort of club got carried along with that sentiment? Is that sort of conscious in their minds right now? Rob will have an indication of this as well, but I'm pretty sure it's there in the sense that they don't want to be seen as making the easy option or making the easy choice again.

1:02:05Because last time with Solskjaer, it was the easy choice. The feel-good factor was back. It was getting all the ex-players on side. There was a real bandwagon for Oli, and he gave them the job. It was a different regime, though, then. It was the Ed Woodward regime, and I think Ed wanted to ride that wave of popularity and make an appointment that the fans loved as well. So different people involved, different factors. But obviously, Michael Carrick and Solskjaer are completely different characters. I think that has been borne out by the fact that Carrick has brought in a coach like Steve Holland straight away, whereas Ole was resistant right to the end to upgrade his coaching staff.

1:02:35So the different people, Carrick is much more pragmatic. But yeah, there is a sense of, if United go with Carrick, he's taking the easy option again. He's done it again. Look what happened with Solskjaer. Now listen, I was never sold on Solskjaer. I thought he was a coach that shouldn't have got the job, didn't have the credentials for it, and his tactics were way too kind of adventurous. us but he did get into a second spot finish in the Premier League and he got him playing attacking football there was that season as well where they didn't lose an away game in the Premier League so it wasn't all bad and it was probably better than better than bad at most times but no certainly when he comes since but it's definitely there in the back of the minds of the people at United that they want to be seen as doing a proper job of due diligence finding the right coach but while there's that nagging thought about can we do that again there's also a nagging thought what happens if we've got a really good coach here a really good manager and we're throwing it away because we don't want to be seeing the tech.

1:03:25I think it's the option. So they're in a catch-22 situation. Yeah, I mean, the Solskjaer situation is definitely on their minds and has been since they appointed Michael Carey. I mean, you just can't escape the similarities between those two situations. And actually, the preview that I did before the Fulham game was about that exact situation. And if you speak to people who are involved in that Solskjaer appointment, they appointed Solskjaer at the time because he was very much a stopgap. They looked at other other candidates like Laurent Blanc, but Blanc had managed France in the past and PSG.

1:03:57It looked, it had the feel of a long-term appointment and they didn't want that. What they wanted was a stock gap. And what happened with Solskjaer was that the results just ran away from them. They weren't expecting it to be that good. And it reached a point where there was no other option, really, but to give Solskjaer the job permanently because of the feeling inside the squad, inside the dressing room, what he'd done for the players, but also outside with the fans. And they felt that ultimately there was no option and they had planned to do this proper recruitment process for a new manager, but they never even started it because Solskjaer had kind of won the job already.

1:04:29And I think there is a sense that maybe Carrick is following that pattern a little bit because certainly he started far better than anyone could have expected by beating City and Arsenal. No one really would have expected that. I'm not even sure Carrick would have expected that, to be honest. And so you do get into a similar situation. And I did think it was interesting that when you speak to people at United when Amerim was sacked and they were sort of talking about what they were looking for in their next permanent manager, the two things that kept coming up again and again and again were that we're not going to alter our structure.

1:05:02It is going to have to be someone who fits into our structure. We've not been put off by what happened with Amerim and Wilcox. We are sure that the structure is right. We need a coach who's going to fit into that structure. And also, they have become very well aware that one of the top credentials credentials for this new manager is an ability to handle the pressure of Man United because the pressure they think United is very unique and very intense now if that's one of your main boxes to tick then there aren't many people better to to handle that pressure than a former player who's been part of a successful Man United team who knows what it takes to win now dangerously varying close to the kind of United DNA chat which I'm trying not to do but in Carrick if you're talking to candidates about the pressure of Man United, Carrick and Solskjaer know exactly what that is.

1:05:50They know exactly how to handle it. They know exactly how tough the scrutiny is, because not only have they dealt with it, they've been successful in that environment under Sir Alex Ferguson. So I can understand why, if you've got someone like Michael Carrick sat in front of you, who's won three games out of three, who can also slot quite seamlessly into a structure. He's not a Thomas Tuchel. He's not a Roberto De Zerbe who's going to be particularly demanding of the recruitment staff and also he sat there saying you want someone who can handle the pressure of man united well just look at my cv i've won a number of premier league titles and the champions league i can do it i know exactly what this job entails and that's very very difficult it's very very difficult to not not to get seduced by that and they did with solskjaer obviously as mark pointed out it's different people involved in the decision making process but they did it with solskjaer in the past and i think if it carries on with with michael carrick it's going to be very very very difficult to look elsewhere I think already three games and I think he's already kind of surpassed the likes of Roberto De Zerbi Oliver Glasner even reached for Pochettino because those coaches haven't got the credentials that you need to be United manager they haven't won a Premier League they haven't won a Champions League so I think right now I think the other two coaches ahead of him are Thomas Tuchel and Carlo Anciotti in the sense that they both delivered on the big big stage obviously Tuchel he kind of has a lot of a lot of negatives around in the sense that he falls out with hierarchy wherever he goes.

1:07:12So maybe the perfect scenario for Man United is to try and persuade Carrick to stay at the club, but maybe work under Ancelotti. Because Ancelotti, an experienced coach, late 60s now, is a guy that is not really a coach, he's more of a figurehead. If Carrick would work with an Ancelotti, for instance, Ancelotti's got all the credentials, multiple Champions League winner, Premier League winner, won titles in every country he played in, I think. And then Carrick could obviously work alongside a guy that has that ability to say, I've done it all. The one thing that lets Carrick down, there are other things that lets Carrick down, let Carrick down are the fact that, first of all, is he the guy that can win Man United a Premier League title?

1:07:48Do you think Michael Carrick can guide them to the Champions League? I mean, no English coach has ever won the Premier League, so for a size and he's on the back foot there, I don't think you can appoint Michael Carrick by saying this guy's going to win as a league. He might get in the top four, that's fine, but if you only go to that next step and win a Premier League, you need a coach that's been there and done it, a Tuchel or an Ancelotti. But like I say, I think Tuchel's got too many things going against him to be the ideal scenario. Ancelotti with Carrick, for me, would be a great way to do it.

1:08:13But obviously, Ancelotti will probably have other offers and Carrick might not want to stay as a number two. So these are all things that United have got to consider. But it's not just about the right coach and the right structure. It's about the guy that's got the credentials to actually win something. You've also got to think about the dressing room because if Michael Carrick wins a load of games and the players love him, you just hear in interviews the way that Lissandro Martinez is talking about him. If he's won a load of games and United turn around to the dressing room and go, actually, we're not having the guy that you really like who's winning loads of games.

1:08:41We're going to go with another guy. Lissandro Martinez and everyone else in the dressing room is going to go, why? Why are you doing that? And then the new guy's going to come in and he might not go particularly well. And immediately, you've lost the dressing room straight away because they're all hankering for the guy that had it last time. There was an element of that when Ruud van Nistelrooy had those three games in charge. And that was only for three or four games. And some of the players were thinking, well, why is he gone? Why is he not here anymore? And Amrim immediately was on the back foot.

1:09:07that if Carrick wins 10 games and they finish third and United's, you know, Barada and Wilcox turn around to them and go, actually, we're not hiring him. I'm not sure the dressing room are going to take that. You know, it's a really, really, really tough decision for Man United. I don't envy Omar Barada and Jason Wilcox with this because, you know, obviously you always want to win games. There is a sense maybe that Michael Carrick is doing or may do too well. and the decision is completely taken out of their hands. Well, okay. But do either of you think that Carrick would accept being a number two?

1:09:46That he would join the backroom staff of another manager? Let's play this out. He gets them into the top four. He wins the majority of his games. He's the man. Would he accept in that situation effectively being demoted down to number two or part of a coachy staff for an Ancelotti for a two-part? I don't, no. He's done that. He did it with Solskjaer. He did it with Mourinho. He's served his time as a first-team coach, as a number two. He's had a head coach's job or a manager's job at Middlesbrough. He had interest when Wolves were looking for a new manager before Christmas. There are other Premier League clubs, even before this stint, there were Premier League clubs who were looking at him and thinking we might want to talk to him.

1:10:26I think he was a little bit more cautious about speaking to Wolves than they were talking to him, but there was obviously interest. I think he will feel if he wants to have a career in management that he's served his time as a coach. And also, if you're going to move him to number two with underneath someone like Ancelotti or Tuchel, then what happens to Steve Holland? Steve Holland is a fantastic number two. So what happens to him? Does he get booted? There's an awful lot of people at Man United who are saying that he's a big part of what's happening at the moment. So you install Carrick as a number two and then he gets booted.

1:10:57Also, I think it sends a mixed message to the dressing room as well. the guy who was in charge is now number two and you've got to listen to the guy above him i think that that raises more issues than it solves but again it's it's it just shows how tough a decision this is going to be for for united because it's just not it's just not simple and also as this whole conversation has started with the soul shot thing in the background to all of this is that is the soul shot thing you know there'll be a lot of man united fans who are thinking well why are we going to go down the same route like it's tough i disagree that i think that I think the one coach who Carrick would stay for his Ancelotti because it's Carlo Ancelotti.

1:11:34I mean, we're not talking about Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. We're talking about Carlo Ancelotti now. Obviously, Mourinho, that was Carrick right at the outset of his coaching career, just come out of playing. So that wasn't really working as a number two to Jose. That was learning the ropes. And if you're Michael Carrick and you're thinking, right, how am I going to get the best job I can get? Well, the best job he can get is the Man United job or the England job, who knows? But if he leaves Man United in the summer having gotten into the top four, what offers he's going to get? well it was linked with West Brom it was linked with Wolves those jobs are just going to end in the sack those jobs are not all you are with those jobs is guaranteed to fail maybe Tottenham in the summer I mean if Carrick gets you right and they say what's that there was talk of Tottenham wasn't there I mean obviously Tottenham is a bit of a basket case at the best of times but you know former player this DNA etc blah blah blah you know Carrick to Tottenham in the summer might be the sort of job that would appeal to him but again can you succeed at Tottenham are you kind of set up to fail.

1:12:27So I think if he's given the opportunity to work under a Carlo Ancelotti for a couple of years, but I agree, we've seen this before. Ryan Giggs, work under David Moyes, work under Lou Van Gaal, work under Jose Mourinho. You'd be agreeing to get the job, didn't get the job. So Carrick has to have that in the back of his mind. But listen, if Carrick stays and gets the job, if he gets into the top four into the Champions League, I think he's earned the job. But I don't think United can wait until the middle of May to decide they have to be cold-headed about it, make the decision in March mid-March and say right this is our guy this is who we want to sign in the summer this is who we want to get rid of and plan ahead you can't just wait to the middle of the summer to make the decision it's too big a decision for United well we'll wait and see what happens next at Manchester United but for this week's pod that's it thanks for listening and we'll see you soon