The Football Reporters: Will cautious Arteta cost Arsenal the title?

14:37Mark Ogden:They're completely different characters. You know, Oli didn't really have the coaching staff that Michael Carrick's brought in. I remember at the time, I think it was Oli's last season, the club had basically gone to Oli and said, look, we will bring you any coach you want to boost your team. And he said, no, no, I've got the best coaching staff in the world, you know, in Michael Carrick and Kieran McKenna. Good coaches they are, but they were experienced, but Michael Carrick's addressed that, so that shows us a different character. So I think from United's perspective, first of all it'd be less expensive than the coaches that talk of it in terms of Pochettino Tuchel Ancelotti he's also popular happy to slot into a system yeah Tuchel maybe not but it all boils down to success now at the minute success is great Tunes out of Tunes the style of football is Man United's style of football you know attacking substitutions as Gary Neville said risking defeat to win and I think he's done that certainly in the Arsenal game so from United's perspective they have to go into the summer and you know we know this after what happened during the Euros when Gareth Southgate was being mentioned a lot about the United job they couldn't decide until the Euros was finished and that was mid-July on this occasion the World Cup was mid-July so even if let's say Thomas Tuka was approached and he accepted it he may not start pre-season until mid-July wouldn't be involved in any recruitment no so somebody told me that players when you're signing players they want to know who they're playing for so United they want to speak to them on Tuesday don't they exactly they'll be looking now at targets for the summer we know that that they want a midfielder, maybe two midfielders.

16:02Mark Ogden:So if you're Elliot Anderson, Adam Walton, your question would be, who's the manager going to be? So, you know, in many ways, if United can get to mid-March, April with Michael Carrick riding away and doing well, it would make a lot of sense to give him the job. But obviously, they would then be accused of taking the easy option. It has to be dependent on results and performances and other factors. But I do think he has to be a contender because if he does well and gets him into the Champions League, then why would you... throw that away and risk an appointment that has a CV like Thomas Tuchel, great, but let's be honest, he doesn't manage upstairs very well, does he?

16:38Mark Ogden:No. So I think he's definitely a contender. I mean, he has to be.

16:41James Olley:The sense I get is that the bar for Michael Carrick to get the job is really, really high. Higher than it was for Solskjaer when he got it because they're so conscious of the narrative around giving it to Solskjaer temporarily. How high though? Champions League qualification. And that's a question. It can't be much higher than beating City or an Arsenal away from home. And I still think qualifying for Europe is a big win for United from where they were. So to me, that would get him in the running. But I think United internally are thinking that the bar is really high because the last thing that they want is to be seen to be riding on a wave of emotion with Carrick, you know, the away fans at the Emirates singing Carrick's song and we're going to win the league and all this kind of stuff and Carrick at the wheel, all that.

17:24James Olley:And then December next season comes and United have lost five of the first, eight games and everyone goes oh I told you it wasn't going to work you should have got Tuchel in the summer and then that that ship has sailed what do you think I think the bar is high

17:36Rob Dawson:I wouldn't give it to Michael Carrick

17:38Mark Ogden:even if they get in the Champions League

17:39Rob Dawson:no even if they get in the Champions League I just think that and I and I like Michael Carrick he's seems like a nice guy I don't know him personally but I've covered him a bit when he was playing for England but I just think they've got to be aiming higher Michael Carrick as good as and I know this feels counterintuitive that speaking shortly after they've just beaten Arsenal and City, but he's not going to bring the good times back long-term. He might give you that feel-good factor for a while, but I think this summer is going to be such a pivotal summer for so many clubs because there's going to be so many managers, top managers available.

18:19Rob Dawson:And if United were to just miss out on that carousel again, I think they'd be looking at it come Christmas time thinking, yeah we weren't brave enough here and they only need to look at their own recent history to find the warnings of being duped like this

18:39Mark Ogden:Well they tried everything they tried the big manager with Mourinho Van Gaal they tried the old play with Ole they've tried the next big thing without Tenhaj they haven't tried everything

18:47Rob Dawson:They haven't tried everything What have they not tried? Buying better players

18:51Mark Ogden:Well that's the thing

18:52Rob Dawson:but that doesn't matter The recruitment hasn't been good enough and you've seen so many managers complain about that and if they can get the recruitment right then the head coach's position is I mean still very important but it's slightly less important

19:04Mark Ogden:So why can't Michael Carrick succeed with better recruitment?

19:06Rob Dawson:Because I don't think that he's got the pedigree and the tactical acumen to win the biggest trophies in the game

19:16James Olley:Well if we think that Carrick managed the game at the Emirates quite well I know that James you thought that Michael Arteta did the exact opposite and managed it really really poorly from your seat in the press box where did it all go wrong for Arsenal on Sunday?

19:31Rob Dawson:Well Oggy and I I remember we talked about this just before Arsenal scored actually just about how quiet it was in the stadium and how just you could sense the nervousness and I do think that this is a consequence to some extent of the work that Mikel Arteta's tried to do in bringing the fans closer to the team and they've they've made a lot of strides in that area they've tweaked little things with the match day experience to try and generate this sort of atmosphere this intimidating hostile atmosphere but a lot of this a lot of the ways they've done it is is sort of hype videos and talk the game up and get to the ground early and this is it here you know this is now this is not a drill all this sort of stuff and it's created this kind of urgency about every game that has tipped into almost a psychodrama for every home game now and they are behaving as if it's April yeah and when you whip up that level of emotion week after week after week it becomes quite draining and especially if you've if you're then you know producing performances that are predicated on fine margins.

20:45Rob Dawson:They're not rolling teams over 2-3-4-0 and that kind of tension is released in the game. It's coming right at the end. We've just been going back through their results and I watch Arsenal as close as anyone, really. And I've seen a lot of reaction to this as being always a bit of a one-off against United. They've not played well consistently for quite a while. So since they were beaten at Aston Villa, on the 6th of December. This is just Premier League. They beat Wolves at home 2-1. Own goal in the last minute. Edgy game, yeah. Edgy game. Then they went to Everton. They won 1-0 with a penalty.

21:24Rob Dawson:Weren't great, did the job, but again, another game of fine margins. They then beat Brighton 2-1 at home. They hung on at the end. Brighton scored second half. They were, hey? Own goal. Yeah, own goal, exactly. Then they played Villa, and now they were good against Villa in the second half. First half, they weren't. Second half, they blew them away, 4-1, really good second half performance. But it was Villa's second game in London in, I think, 72 hours. So there was possibly a bit of fatigue in there. They then went to Bournemouth. They won 3-2, but they were hanging on at the end. Gabriel mistake, they went behind, wasn't entirely convincing.

21:56Rob Dawson:And then they've had this run now of drawing 0-0 at home to Liverpool, drawing 0-0 away at Forest, and losing to United. So I think they've had this coming for a while. And when Arteta talks about the Forest game, for example, as he did post-match after the United game. He seemed to want to bring that up. He said, oh, people talk about Forrest and we drew 0-0. They created nothing. It's not even Forrest. They're battling relegation. And the first point he goes to is, well, they didn't create anything and we had chances ourselves. And I think this speaks to the only thing that really could stop Arsenal winning the league, which is that if they continue to be this risk-averse, then they're going to play every single game with this tension and within these fine margins and you don't win every game like that in this league

22:46Mark Ogden:because it's too competitive. We were talking, I think it was Nillil at the time and I actually made a point saying Arsenal are so well drilled. It was really impressive to watch how well drilled they were in terms of whenever United broke, Declan Rice with their mopping up and whenever United were in the opposition half, Arsenal were so rigid with their banks of four and just defending. It was almost like an art form to watch it. Now it's clear that they must work on shape every day which is quite boring if you're a player just walking through positional sense. And we just thought well it was quite robotic so he drilled his players to the point where can they think for themselves?

23:17Mark Ogden:Now when Dogu scored that second goal we made a point because all of a sudden they had this kind of impromptu gathering the Arsenal players. Now I think a little bit was because they weren't sure if it was a handball by Dogu but a lot of it was almost like they were all looking around at each other thinking what do we do now? It wasn't a sense of, they were looking for somebody to say right, come on guys, let's get ourselves out of this but nobody clearly had an idea what to do and they started glancing over the touchline to our test as if to say, what now?

23:45Rob Dawson:And what was next was a quadruple change.

23:48Mark Ogden:Yeah, checking off your most creative player.

23:50Rob Dawson:I think it was seven or eight minutes after the goal and I mean we tried to get our stats guys to find out exactly when it was, they don't have that data but I can't think of a time he's done that before and generally it's pretty rare isn't it for a manager to make a quadruple change especially in a game of that magnitude and quite so early on in the second half it was before the hour mark and I just thought it was the first time I think I can remember in a number of years looking at Arteta and thinking that he's that things are happening beyond his control he's a control freak and I mean that in a positive sense you know what he's done the structure and the discipline that he's instilled is a remarkable It's an incredible transformation.

24:31Rob Dawson:But that final little tweak is to just let this incredibly talented and vibrant squad go and play. And they're still a bit too risk averse. And, you know, at 0-0 and at 1-0, he's a picture of agitation. He's gesturing furiously. He's pointing to everyone where to go. He's G-ing them all up. What was he doing when they were 2-1 down in the second half after he made that change? Hands in his pockets. Arms folded, watching. And it was as if it's the first time I've seen him that passive in that kind of game situation.

25:06James Olley:Can I just ask you then about the change, that quadruple change? Because the narrative from the start of the season, I think from that Liverpool game, was that Arsenal have had the handbrake on and Arteta has to kind of let them go. To me, watching that game yesterday, not just a quadruple change, the timing of it, and also Arteta being quite performative after the change when he sends his players on and he's doing all this, you know, raising his arms to the crowd as if to say, you know, I've done what you've asked basically. To me, that looked like a really emotional decision in his head. He's almost thought all these fans are going to think that I haven't got the bravery to chuck on all these players and take the handbrake off, but I'm going to show them, here you go.

25:42James Olley:Now, I don't think that there's much sense in making emotional decisions like that in the middle of a game because ultimately your players want to know that you're the guy in charge. But it wasn't brave, was it?

25:53Mark Ogden:Because, I know what you're saying, but it... He's made it for the wrong reasons. Yeah, and he's taken off a player like Odegaard who could create a chance. Odegaard has got his deficiencies, but he's a creative midfielder that could have opened up Man United's defence. Now, I was thinking this a couple of days ago before the game, how risk-averse he is. I can't think of a manager that's won the Premier League as a risk-averse manager. Now, obviously, people say Mourinho, but Mourinho was risk-averse after Chelsea were 2-0 up. You'd never get to a point where they try and control against the points, sneak a goal, and then defend.

26:21Mark Ogden:To win a league, you have to be ready to take a chance. And all the managers, I can't think of a single Premier League manager that's won the league by not taking chances I don't think Arteta takes enough chances

26:29Rob Dawson:No, and it looked I mean Saka was playing on the left at the end I can't think of the last time he certainly started a game out there a long, long time ago and by throwing those four on as he did, but not really giving them, they sort of went for it but they didn't really go for it it was kind of a yes it's a big visual moment, you're changing four players, but they lost their patterns in build-up. And you had someone like Eze, and the use of Eze is really interesting because I think a lot of Arsenal fans would like to see more of him. And I think he's starting to embody that issue that they have of, or do they want to actually sacrifice a bit of control to have someone who can go and do something in the final third, who might lose the ball and might have runners coming off the back of him and they might be vulnerable on the transition.

27:21Rob Dawson:Okay, but you accept because of what he can do in the final third. And I've made this point on the pod before, but I think it stands, is that I think Arsenal are stuck between being the team they planned to be and the team they were last season. And that's when they made these changes, they brought in these players, Jokka, as we talked a lot about, they made these seven signings, they spent, you know, 250 million quid and all the chat was, we're going to be more direct, we're not going to play this horseshoe football so much. We're going to get it into Jokeres earlier. We're going to open teams up quicker.

27:53Rob Dawson:We're going to be more dynamic. And they got to the top of the league when Jokeres was injured. They had Marino up front and they went back to what they were doing last season. And now they've got everybody available. Most of them available. I'm not I think they don't quite know which way to go with it.

28:08James Olley:Well, let's move on then to what it means for the title race. Because I was in Pep Guardiola's press conference on Friday after they were beaten by Bodo Glimpton in Norway and he looked quite rattled he looked as if they obviously had a really poor result against United they've had a worse result in Norway against Bodo and he's starting to he comes out with his demeanour changes when he starts to feel like things aren't going his way and all of a sudden they've only had to beat Wolves at home 2-0 on Saturday and it feels like the momentum has swung now back towards City is that the sense that you're you're getting as well?

28:42Rob Dawson:Yeah because I think Arteta was for him was very honest after the United game. And he's one of those managers who quite often just paints a different picture of the game that we've all watched and sort of relies on the fact that he obviously knows a lot more about football than all of us put together. But you sort of, you know, you trust your eyes. And he's somebody who quite often will just say, well, actually, we dominated the game when sort of consensus is they didn't. He didn't do that. He sort of said, you know, we were poor technically. We made mistakes. He acknowledged the nervousness in the stadium and didn't try to hide away from that, which I thought was interesting.

29:20Rob Dawson:And as I've said, sort of listing those fixtures earlier, I felt this has been coming for a while. What they've absolutely just gotten to do now is just not panic. They're still four points clear. They're still the best squad in the league. And I said all the way along here, if they perform in an attacking sense and they can free themselves up to play with some expression, they will win the title because they are the best side with the deepest squad. But if they continue to allow the situation and the wider kind of chat around the 22-year wait for the title and whipping themselves up into a frenzy for every game, we can't possibly make a mistake, we can't possibly drop a point.

30:02Rob Dawson:If we do, City are going to hunt us down. They've got to get out of that mentality because as you'd know, City haven't really been that consistent. They've not really been able to put them under that amount of pressure and yet they still feel like this in January.

30:16James Olley:I mean, beating Wolves on Saturday was City's first Premier League win of the year. It felt like the season was kind of collapsing around them a little bit and all of a sudden, they'll be waking up this morning feeling like they're right back in it. And the point I tried to make in the piece I wrote on Saturday, I think signing Semenyo and Mark Gahey in January, I can't remember a Premier League team being able to pull off two deals like that in January. Two peak age Premier League proven players who come in and bolster the, not only the squad but the first 11 of a title challenger midway through the season is absolutely is absolutely massive I mean Semenio scored 11 Premier League goals already this season Gage is one of the best centre-backs in England I just think those two signings might play a massive part in what happens with the title race between now and the end of the season and obviously Arsenal go to City don't they it's scheduled for April the 18th I'm sure it'll get moved but it's obviously back end of April if City are within touching distance the back end of April I think that they'll think that this is theirs to win

31:12Mark Ogden:They haven't addressed their key problem and that's the midfield they've still got a situation midfield where Rodri's really struggling Bernardo Silva's not what he was Reinders is a middle of the road player they've still got a midfield that can be overrun and I think in many ways this is a really good title race because it's unpredictable but it's probably the worst title race for I can't remember in terms of the quality of the teams at the top so Arsenal as strong as they are they're not they're not going to go down as one of the great champions if they win it because they just they lack a bit of fantasy City this is the worst Pep team since the first season he was at the club.

31:43Mark Ogden:Aston Villa, yeah, Villa were doing surprisingly well and doing IMRI but just when they were going to knock on the door they lost it on to Everton. So it's like, who's going to win this title? Now, you've got a smoke on your face. I'm blown up. I've got a smoke on my face

31:55James Olley:because I know what you're going to say.

31:56Mark Ogden:You think I'm going to talk about Man United? No, listen. The Man United fans after the game at the weekend were chanting, we're going to win the league. Now, I assume they were joking. I hope they were joking because it does seem ridiculous. They were clubbing crisis three weeks ago. But, there is more than one precedent of a team 12 points behind in January, winning the league. So 1996, 23 games gone, United were 12 points behind Newcastle and won the league by four points. Now yes, they had a better team than they have now. Two years later, 1998, Arsene Wenger's Arsenal were 12 points behind in February and won the title by a point.

32:31Mark Ogden:So look, I mean, United have got nothing else on their agenda apart from Premier League games. There are frailties of the teams ahead of them. I don't think United have got a chance but is it a four horse race is it a three horse race or is it a three and a half horse race oh come on man United are not in the title race it's a two horse race a two horse race not even you're not Keating Villa

32:53James Olley:no because of what exactly the reason you just said the minute that it looked like they could possibly push on and also they've got Europa League and I think the the way that Emery's talking suggests that he is far more focused on winning the Europa League than he is

33:05Mark Ogden:but they're four points behind

33:06Rob Dawson:three of their next four games are at home in the Premier League they've got Brentford at home Brighton at home they've got a very small squad

33:13Mark Ogden:and John McGinn's injured for maybe five or six weeks so I take your point Rob they have got issues that you think they can't do but they're still there and Arsenal and City are not pulling away they're not showing the signs that they can win the league at a canter so that's what I mean about being the worst title race for a long time there's not a good there's not a great team

33:31James Olley:in the title race Emery's going to have a problem in the second half of the season about how he manages the Europa League and the Premier League just like Amrim had last season and just like Postacogli did because he's going to be torn about what do you go and try and win a trophy which comes with Champions League football or do you try and get Champions League football through the Premier League and I think because the Europa League offers you both of those things and Villa fans a lot of Villa fans you know this is anecdotal because it's just off what I've heard off on social media and on the radio and stuff Villa fans will want to win a trophy and I just wonder whether when the going gets tough at the back end of the season whether they're going to start resting players in the league

34:04Rob Dawson:but I'm just looking at the table now I mean they've got an eight point buffer in third place. I mean, they've got a little bit of wiggle room there. I'm not suggesting they're going to sacrifice a chance to win the Premier League. But I mean, if Arsenal and City pull away or one of those two teams pulls away from Villa, as we sort of expect they will do, then Villa do at least have that wiggle room to think, well, we're sort of safely ensconced in the top four. And actually, we probably could rotate a little bit to prioritise the Europa League. You know, it's not... I know you made the Spurs comparison there, but I mean they they sort of wrote off their entire season and almost gave up on the Premier League Villa can balance that a little bit more because of the buffer they've got already

34:45Mark Ogden:I mean it's 10 years since Leicester won the league and Leicester were much more unfanted than Villa Villa have got some very good players they've got a world class goalkeeper they've got you know Morgan Rodgers is one of the players of the season so far strong midfield good defence it's pretty much 1-11 isn't it they haven't got a lot of depth but you know Leicester won the league by pretty much using 13-14 players in the running so it's just because City and Arsenal for me are just not showing signs of pulling away both those sides will lose more games

35:10James Olley:and also they've got the Champions League to contend with because sitting here right now I feel like Arsenal are going to go deeper in that competition than City are and so it becomes how you I've just talked about Villa and how they manage that it becomes about how Arsenal manage it and I know they've got a really deep squad but they've got a run of games just looking at the end of Feb and the beginning of March they've got Tottenham away Chelsea at home right in a way consecutively and then obviously they've got that City game at the Etihad end of April I just wonder whether it's all and it goes back to the same question

35:38Mark Ogden:last game of the season by the way City Villa

35:39Rob Dawson:yeah I was just looking Villa's last two fixtures of Liverpool at home City away

35:43James Olley:and it goes back to that same question we've been asking and debating all season on this pod until Arsenal get over the line there'll always be a question about the mentality because that April game at the Etihad looks an awful lot like that one that we went to at the end of season two years ago when everyone expected Arsenal to give it a real go and they got absolutely thumped

36:03Rob Dawson:Yeah, and I tweeted something out about the Arsenal's record against the sort of traditional big six this season, which is that they've taken nine points from seven games so far. Nine points from a possible 21. And in those matches, we've talked about, again, this idea that Liverpool and Anfield in August, there for the taking, lost a tight game 1-0. City at home a few weeks later. City were kind of all over the place there for the taking. They scrambled a point in the last minute equaliser. Chelsea, they played 11 v 10 for quite a long period of that game and didn't really go for it. Drew the game.

36:42Rob Dawson:Liverpool at home, they drew nil-nil again. There was a chance to go and extend the lead at the top of the table. And then you've got United, of course. And I argue over the weekend, they were quite fortunate to beat United at Old Trafford. So there is a trend there, which should be a serious concern for Arsenal and Arteta, that they're just not quite... What they're not doing is allowing the best squad in the league to show they're the best squad in the league. They're playing to avoid... I'm going to make it... This is a stupid comparison, but I'm going to make it anyway. Keir Starmer, before the last election, everybody thought...

37:18Rob Dawson:And he's an Arsenal fan. US listeners, he's a Prime Minister of the UK. He is the Prime Minister of the UK. But he was worried that he wasn't going to be. And all he was trying to do was just not make any mistakes while the Tories blew up. Carry the Ming Vars across the marble floor. Exactly that quote I was getting to. And that's what Arteta's doing. He's carrying that trophy across the marble floor, hoping not to break it by not making any mistakes, rather than seizing the moment and grasping it. And it may work. They're top of the league. They're four points cleared. They should not be panicking.

37:52Rob Dawson:We keep saying this. but you're leaving yourself vulnerable to the vagaries of a very competitive league if you continue to play this conservatively.

38:03James Olley:Before then, we take a quick break. One word, who's going to win the league? I think it's going to be City. James?

38:10Rob Dawson:I'm going to say City because I haven't been able to say Arsenal for any of the time that Arteta's been manager.

38:19Mark Ogden:I'm still sticking with Arsenal because I think City's midfield we'll see them lose more games than they want to but just before we finish finally we all agree that Man United aren't going to win the league but will they finish fourth will they beat Chelsea Liverpool to fourth or do you think it's just been a bit of a flash in the pan start for Panko Carrico

38:35James Olley:I think I think they'll finish either fifth or sixth I think they'll just miss out on the top four

38:41Rob Dawson:I think they'll be fifth I think Liverpool will rally and get fourth

38:46Mark Ogden:I don't know I think they're going to finish third

38:50James Olley:didn't even give us that as an option well when we come back after the break we're going to be talking about the last round of the champions league fixtures on match day eight in today's

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40:11James Olley:so Wednesday we'll see the last round of the Champions League league phase games match day eight when this new format was introduced James this was one of the big selling points you know live table fans glued to multiple matches loads going on loads on the line this is a second year obviously has it worked out like that no I just I've never been a fan

40:30Rob Dawson:of this format. The idea that there's no dead games is obviously a fallacy. The fact that the top eight doesn't really mean too much. I think the biggest change this season actually is that the top two will be at home in the second leg all the way to the final. I think that is a genuinely significant advantage. Arguably more so than being in the top eight. Of course you've got two extra matches you could go out. but you know what this format has done is dilute the importance of big teams meeting each other I understand it if you're a casual fan and you think oh Inter Milan are playing Arsenal great you know two big teams this early in the season let's watch it does it really matter no pre-season friendly wasn't it this is it and unfortunately and I think we all knew this was coming anyway that just the dilution of the format has not added to the overall quality and it's reduced the jeopardy.

41:33Rob Dawson:And yeah, look, all these games kicking off at the same time, it's going to be an exciting Wednesday night and the live table will be, you know, will do great traffic on all sorts of websites, but I'm not, I don't think it's come at a too high a price really.

41:47Mark Ogden:You mentioned the advantage then of the top two having second legs at home all the way through, but is that really an advantage? Because the reason I asked that is, last season, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Arsenal really capitalised on being at home first basically got an unassailable lead before they went to the Burnabout and I think there's an argument that unless you're Liverpool who obviously have the Anfield factor as we can attest to being at home first gives you the chance to get a lead which means you can just go away and defend so I don't know what do you think it's an advantage to be at home second?

42:13Well I mean the whole

42:15James Olley:thing raises questions about what's actually an advantage or not it's like the top eight you've got Liverpool Tottenham Newcastle Chelsea and City all on match day eight vying for a place in the top eight and their kind of place in this table, does it actually matter? PSG kind of showed last year that it doesn't really. What I'm trying to answer your question, is there any kind of advantage to be had, do you think, in where you finish in this table, whether it's second or 22nd?

42:42Rob Dawson:Yes, I think there is, to the extent that, I take your point, Mark, I think it's an interesting one. I would say, though, if you ask the managers, would you want the second leg home or away, they would say home every single time. and I think it's important for the Premier League teams to not have two extra games I think that was certainly a motivation for Arsenal especially Arsenal and City

43:03Mark Ogden:with going deep in both competitions

43:05Rob Dawson:to not have those two extra obviously high profile tense matches you know knockout games to save yourself from that but in terms of your prospects of winning the competition if we're now talking about the serious contenders for it the heavyweights who are there every year I don't think it really matters does it? I mean you know you look at the table here I mean, we should probably pick out a couple of fixtures. I think that, you know, Napoli-Chelsea is the big one, isn't it? That Napoli, 25th, they're currently below the line. They could go out. Chelsea are right on the brink. They're eighth at the moment in the automatic places, but obviously could drop down into the playoffs.

43:41Rob Dawson:And you've got, you know, what is it? Seven, eight, ten teams maybe separated by four or five points. I mean, it is quite, it is, I can see the appeal of it, but I just think the jeopardy on paper is not matched by the jeopardy in reality.

43:55Mark Ogden:I mean, I'm not sure what, I can't think of a comparable game, but last year City played Real Madrid in the playoffs, didn't they? And that was the one that, you know, City were knocked out and that was a real jeopardy game. The teams that are in there now, I mean, Juventus, Napoli, I just don't see any of those teams being a real kind of fear factor, certainly for the Premier League teams. The Premier League seems to have dominated this season's competition. Even Tottenham are, you know, Tottenham are terrible in the Premier League, but they're fourth, fifth right now?

44:19Rob Dawson:Fifth. well I mean let's talk a bit about that I mean Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs, Newcastle, Chelsea that's five of the top eight from the Premier League and City on goal difference they're not in there they're down in 11th they're on the same points as Chelsea, Newcastle and Paris Saint-Germain who was 6th, 7th and 8th so what does this say about A. the Premier League and B. the strength of the Champions League that English teams have been so dominant in this group stage?

44:45James Olley:I just think we're going to go back to the kind of old narrative that the Super League's here it's just called by a different name the Premier League is the Super League they're just teams in Europe most of the teams in Europe can't compete with the financial advantage that the Premier League teams have got and you look at Tottenham is a great point Newcastle as well, Newcastle have struggled at times in the Premier League this year they probably have more competitive games in those mid-band Premier League fixtures than they do in the Champions League, in the Champions League they've won 4 out of seven Tottenham won four out of seven as well lost once well Arsenal

45:21Rob Dawson:made seven changes to last season's finalists into Milan and won comfortably seven changes

45:28Mark Ogden:I mean interesting to be the outlier haven't they but in recent years in terms of getting to a couple of finals but I think we both expect that come to certainly the knockout stage the last 16-8 it'll be Bayern Munich PSG Real Madrid Barcelona and four Premier League sides that seems to be the way it's trended

45:42James Olley:what I've been interested in I mentioned this on our desk last week that you talk about the strength of the Premier League often the argument is is the Premier League is a strength in depth as strong as La Liga you look at the table Villarreal who I think are about third or fourth in La Liga are 35th in the Champions League table they've drawn one of seven games lost six Athletic Club who obviously got to the semi-finals of the Europa League last year are down in 23rd you know the big two in Spain are behemoths in their own right in Barcelona and Real Madrid but doesn't say much with a comparable strength of La Liga that in theory their third or fourth best team in Villarreal are right all the way down in the second from bottom.

46:22Mark Ogden:Frankfurt, the Bundesliga, Frankfurt are really struggling. They've been terrible this year, Frankfurt, in the Champions League.

46:26Rob Dawson:But where that sort of the power of competition, if you like, helps that maybe the teams in the autumn and the winter, does it actually become a bit of a hindrance in the spring when Barcelona could say rest 11 players and probably win their La Liga game, whereas Arsenal or Liverpool would maybe have a massive game where they can't.

46:47James Olley:That's the interesting thing. Over the last 20 years the Premier League haven't generated the number of Champions League winners that they should have done given the strength of the squads and it's all because of that I think that when it gets really tough Guardiola used to go through this thing and it used to happen every single year there was a week in April where he said that you would play an away game in the Premier League you'd play a Champions League quarter-final second leg or semi-final first leg against a really tough team and then you'd probably have an FA Cup semi-final at Wembley the weekend after.

47:15James Olley:Again and again and again, he just said, even Premier League squads cannot cope with that workload in the same week. And he ended up resting loads of players for FA Cup semi-finals. He couldn't get to a final for ages. He got knocked out of Champions League quarterfinals and semi-finals because he couldn't manage the workload compared to the Premier League. Obviously, eventually he managed it and got over the line with the treble in 2023. But he always said that it was very, very tough for a Premier League team to win the Champions League because of that exact point.

47:41Mark Ogden:I've no sympathy with that argument because we all know that Pep's got incredible resources at City he's got a huge squad and if you're really that obsession with winning the Champions League as he has been and he has done it just use your kids in the Carabao Cup use them in the FA Cup and then take your chance and if you get that ticket you get that ticket but prioritise the bigger trophies if you're going to try and win all four you're going to find it hard because it's hard for that reason there's too many games so that's why you build a big squad you know we know that we don't quite know yet we're beginning to see a little bit in terms of how much of an impact the club World Cup will have on these teams City, Chelsea, Real Madrid, PSG we'll still wait to see that one but I imagine that Real Madrid and PSG will handle it better than Chelsea Man City

48:17Rob Dawson:I was just looking at last season just with Arsenal obviously missing out on the league just sort of reminding myself between the Premier League games between the Champions League games and that Real Madrid tie they drew between those two games they drew one all at home to Brentford you know hugely damaging result Champions League semi-final first leg lost 1-0 then lost at home to Bournemouth before they went to PSG for the second leg and then off the back of that second leg and then went to Anfield and drew 2-2. The effect is obvious and the cumulative effect of competing on four fronts like Arsenal are trying to do this season.

48:53Rob Dawson:I think they're 34th or 35th game, 34th game I think of the season already. They could be playing 64 matches, something like that, if they get through to everything. I mean, it's going to... I know what you mean about the squad size, but no squad can really cope with that without, especially if you have a few injuries and you're starting to overload players. It becomes a, you know.

49:12Mark Ogden:Well, that's why I was so surprised at the strength of the City team in Norway last week had bought a glimpse. You know, obviously they lost the game, but it's a game that they could afford to lose, really. Why he played Haaland from the start? Why he played Rodri? Because these guys need a rest and Haaland had, until the Wolves game at the weekend, had played so many games. These are the guys you need to rest for at the end of the season. Bear in mind that Haaland had played right from the start of the Club World Cup last summer. So, you know, Pep's got to be careful.

49:36James Olley:There are questions about Peps rotation because he was saying on Friday that he was basically talking about injuries as something out of his control. And Ruben Diaz is one of the injuries that he's got that's had quite a big impact. He's out with a muscle injury, but he went through a stage, I think it was eight or 10 games where he played 90 minutes. A lot of City fans at the time were saying, well, why you can't sort of bemoan the fact that Ruben Diaz has got a muscle injury when you had a chance to rest him. You could have played Kusnoff earlier and he didn't, obviously because he didn't trust him.

50:03James Olley:But you've kind of ran Diaz into the ground. his pitiful muscle injury and then kind of sat back and gone, oh, I can't believe it. You know, we've got injuries again. It's not my fault. Well, you know, there is a school of thought to say that it is. Just quickly on the English teams, if the quarter-finalists of the Champions League this season were to have six English teams in it, do you think that would take something away from the competition? Would you like to see Newcastle against Chelsea in a Champions League quarter-final, semi-final or does it have to have Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, teams from different countries to add something to the tournament?

50:34Rob Dawson:That's what you want, isn't it? You want Europe's best meeting when it matters most, not in November. Yeah, yeah. You know, and that's the sacrifice that UEFA have made here is to, oh, we actually, people really want to see these teams play more often. And the casual fan probably does. When it matters. They probably do because the rating, I'm sure the ratings will be better for, you know, Arsenal against Paris Saint-Germain in the group stage than it would be for, you know, sporting against Atalanta or whatever. You know, it stands to reason. But the reason why those games matter and are so iconic is because they don't come along every...

51:15Rob Dawson:And there's jeopardy to them as well.

51:17Mark Ogden:Yes. You know, winner takes all. It's, you know, knockout stages where it really matters. It's been the longest preamble ever. We're talking about mid-January and he's still thinking, we know he's going to go through. It's only Napoli that's a real surprise. I imagine the champions of Italy that are struggling, but I don't know. It's a tough one. Six Premier League teams in the quarterfinals. I just don't see that.

51:34James Olley:But if it was to happen, would the competition benefit from that? No. It'd be terrible.

51:40Rob Dawson:No. I mean, Europe would hate it. The other European leagues would hate it. The Premier League obviously attracts a lot of animosity for its dominance, financial dominance anyway. It's sort of a minor miracle, really, that the big European clubs have still been able to kind of put the Premier League in their place in terms of winning Champions Leagues. that it's not become just a complete monopoly which it has threatened to over various cycles in the last 20 years. But it's like you said

52:06Mark Ogden:they'll get to April and May that's when the big guns in Spain, Germany and Italy can rest their players and ease off

52:13Rob Dawson:whereas the Premier League And they benefit from the winter break and there's just less football in their legs and that's why the sort of exposure and the glorification of the Premier League the intensity of it everything that we love about it comes to almost home to roost in those final few weeks.

52:31Mark Ogden:So who's going to win the Champions League? I know it's still in the league stage,

52:34James Olley:but let's give it a go. I still can't look beyond Real Madrid when you talk about Champions League. I just think that the knockout games, more so than domestic games, are decided by moments and the more players you've got capable of creating moments in big games, the better chance you've got. So Real Madrid might not be particularly consistent in La Liga, but I just think they've got such phenomenal attacking players that they will create these moments in big knockout games and they've still got a good chance of winning.

53:02Mark Ogden:Yeah, my favourites are Bayern Munich. I think Harry Kane with the goals, they can take it off, take the foot off the gas in Germany. But I would say as an outsider, despite their issues at the minute, I would never, ever rule at Liverpool in the Champions League.

53:16Rob Dawson:Well, I was going to say Bayern, but because you've said Bayern, I'll say Barcelona because I said them last season. And again, a similar kind of argument of just the individual threat plus Marcus Rashford.

53:27James Olley:Just one quick one then. You've picked the best placed English team to win it. You've obviously picked Liverpool. Not the best players, it's just what they do, isn't it? I think Arsenal, best placed English team to win it.

53:42Rob Dawson:I think they're seven from seven. You can't fault them this season. They've been fantastic and that kind of controlled, minimised mistakes, it does maybe play a bit better in Europe so I'd say Arsenal are probably best placed for the English teams but I still doubt whether they quite if we spent 45 minutes battering their lack of game management and know-how in the Premier League I still think they've got that to prove in the Champions League too

54:08Mark Ogden:Well that's it for this week Join us again next week when we'll have a transfer deadline day special

54:22Mark Ogden:stage is set for the TGL presented by SoFi Finals, Los Angeles Golf Club versus Tigers Jupiter Lynx. Keep up, it's playoffs. Tune in Monday, March 23rd, 9 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2, and Tuesday, March 24th, 7 p.m. Eastern on ESPN and on the ESPN app.