Advantage Ferrari? Aston upgrades key to Fernando’s future? – Hungarian GP Preview

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1:06Hello and welcome to Budapest for F1 Nation's preview of the Hungarian Grand Prix. I'm Tom Clarkson and joining me here in the paddock at the Hungaro Ring is F1 correspondent and presenter Lawrence Barreto. Now, later on, I'll tell you how you can be in with a chance of winning tickets to the Spanish Grand Prix in Madrid this September. But right now we're here to talk Hungary. And Lawrence, it's always a pleasure to come racing in Hungary, isn't it? Particularly this year, the 40th anniversary of the first ever race here in 1986.

1:39Lawrence Barretto:I love this place, Tom. I think the vibe that you get here from the fans. I remember when Kimi Räikkönen used to bring a huge contingent of Finnish fans down here and they would pack the hillside because the track is kind of in a bowl. So you're kind of in an amphitheatre as the cars are going around and you could just see this like swarm of Finnish flags in the grandstands. I'm sure there'll be a few for Valtteri Bottas still here around here. But I love that you can see so much for this track from so many vantage points. I love that actually over the last few years, we've had some pretty good Hungarian Grand Prix.

2:09Lawrence Barretto:We had that great comeback drive from Max Verstappen in 2022 when he fought back to win. And also people here in Hungary love Formula One. And I think when you come to races, when you're streaming in through the gates and you see them packing the barriers and trying to get a peek of the drivers coming in. And then you walk into this venue, which they've upgraded in the last couple of years. And it's pretty cool now. They kind of tried to follow the train of the big Middle Eastern races. We've got a great paddock facility here, great hospitality. And there's a really cool vibe, but it's also end of school vibe as well, isn't it?

2:39Lawrence Barretto:Because I think it's been an exciting season, a long first half of the season. And I think there's some excitement to get into that break, finish strongly here this weekend. Well, finish strongly, carry the momentum, right? And let's break it down now, Lawrence. Let's do Mercedes versus Ferrari. That's where the battle's been most recently. I mean, who are these 4.2 kilometers going to suit best? Well, firstly, I just want to say how great is it that we've got this battle between Mercedes and Ferrari. I think Ferrari have been trying to find that force, find that form to go and hunt the leaders, who in this case is Mercedes.

3:12Lawrence Barretto:Who is it going to suit? I think in theory, Mercedes are strong everywhere, right? So you've always got to consider them to be the ones to beat. but in theory Ferrari should be stronger here the only caveat I would say to that is that we've gone to some very high speed circuits recently where Ferrari said they would struggle and they were actually pretty strong so I don't know it's if it's going to be the reverse this time in Hungary but Charles was on pole here last year and I know he kind of fell back through the pack but there is something in that car that should suit them around here and I think Charles will feel that he's in good momentum oh you know if you're gonna put me on the spot I think it's gonna probably be Ferrari getting the edge over Mercedes.

3:48Wow I mean well what a weekend we've got in store. Look let's deal with those teams individually now. Fascinating intra-team battles between well first George Russell and Kimi Antonelli right. Antonelli is on a roll drove beautifully last weekend in Belgium. Russell worst case scenario for him wasn't it crashing out on the opening lap. Do you think George comes here with a bit of confidence or a bit of almost like a bit of anger inside him. He's really got to stop the rot and bring it back.

4:19Lawrence Barretto:I think he comes with confidence because of his experience that he knows these kind of things can happen and he knows that things can turn around so quickly. I think he is fortunate that he has that in his locker to call upon after that difficult Grand Prix. He won't be phased by it in the way that maybe if you're younger, less experienced, you might think, oh no, you know, I had one good race, but actually it's all going to go badly Rongen I think he won't let that affect him but I think he will know that he needs to finish strongly going into the summer break because he knows that that kind of momentum is important in sport generally speaking I think he'll take a lot from the three races coming up to Spa that he was able to perform strongly even though he didn't feel massively confident in the car the results kind of went in his favor I think that he didn't really get to understand whether or not the fixes that they'd put in place or with his driving style kind of helped him in the race because he didn't even manage to complete a race in lap in Spa so I think there's a few unknowns coming here and it's another few days at least for Mercedes to help him understand why they aren't able to get this deployment you know the same as for Kimi and the other Mercedes powered units and also kind of knit together the driving style I thought it was really interesting that he gave a quote at the last race about how he's come through every formula coming up to Formula One and every car he's driven up into this point in Formula 1 he has never had to change his driving style and I compare it to like I learned languages when I was a kid and I used to be fluid and Spanish and German now I find it really hard to learn languages and I wonder whether the deeper you go in to a sport or something that you've done well the harder it is to make those changes later in your career when you're trying to do that because he's so used to the driving style that he's always had suiting him and I think we're just unfortunately for him we're getting to see that very publicly aren't we in the way that he's trying to address it but I think we've seen enough high points in those three races Austria and Silverstone and Spain before that where I think he is starting to turn the screw and understand what it is it's just taking a little bit of time and it obviously doesn't help Tom there on the other side of the garage even though the results haven't been perfect Kimi Antonelli has not put a foot wrong really this year in terms of pace so when it goes right it's going to go right and even when it's not going right for him he's still super quick so I think that's really tough for George to take and um but I think he's he's he's a fighter like we've seen that enough from his time in Formula One but this weekend is big like you said like he does need to to find something he needs to manufacture something that it kind of goes in his favor the deployment issues in Spa the team said it was what two tenths of a second round there this is obviously a much shorter lap and it's the sort of least power starved track or second least actually Monaco is not bad either.

7:01But so in a way deployment is just not a factor this weekend, right? It's much more down to sort of chassis performance. And I feel that will help George. He can focus, he can let it all come more naturally. He's not having to think sideways about what's happening with the deployment because that's not the issue. Do you agree with me on that?

7:19Lawrence Barretto:Yeah, I think that's a fair point. I think the only thing I would say is that there is nowhere to hide now, is there? because if there is a deficit, it's not going to be down to the deployment probably around here, is it? It's probably going to be that he hasn't maybe got the setup right or he hasn't, him and the team haven't got the car in the liking or he hasn't kind of pinpointed the style, the tweaks he needs to make to his driving style. But I think it is fair to say that actually, because it won't be so much of an influence around here, that will hopefully help clear his head a little bit more, maybe let him drive a little bit freer because he won't have to like double think everything where there isn't time to think once anyway.

7:56Lawrence Barretto:And so I think that will probably help him in that score. But it's more than ever, it's important he starts on the right foot in FP1. He needs to build that up through these three FP1 sessions. He's lucky he's not a sprint weekend. And then build that momentum, I think really quickly into the weekend. Okay, now what about Ferrari then? You know, Leclerc's got a bit of momentum after those, what is it, three consecutive bad races, suddenly along comes Silverstone. He gets the win, surprising win. and he almost won last weekend as well so the momentum I feel is coming back to Charles I mean I saw him actually earlier earlier today and he was very relaxed and happy looking forward to the weekend and and as you say maybe he feels deep down that Ferrari got the edge I think it's amazing what a couple of results can do right because then we only have to go back a month or so and he felt like he was in a world of pain he couldn't escape you know with the brakes and then the pace the car wasn't quite where he wanted to do and Lewis was outperforming him so I think the confidence swing has been dramatic for Charles and I think he is probably more one of those drivers where confidence is more important to him because it's clear he's got the talent right he's probably going to go down as one of the greatest qualifiers if not the greatest qualifier ever but maybe it's down to how he feels about his form that matters so I think it will be important that he tries to capitalize on it it's probably why there is this feeling that there should be a stronger weekend for Ferrari here anyway, apart from the fact that the car should suit these characteristics.

9:24Lawrence Barretto:But I think that obviously on the other side of the garage, it hasn't gone so smoothly for Lewis. And we talked right at the start about rivalries and inter-team rivalries and how important they are this year. I think that that will help Charles because he'll just feel like he's doing more what he knows he can do. And I think coming here, he got pole, like I said, last year when he didn't expect to get pole. It's those little things that in the really detailed moments or the real high pressure moments, he'll be able to call upon and go, I know I can do this because I did it last year, you know, and I know I can do this because the last couple of races.

9:55Lawrence Barretto:And I think all of that will build up to really help him this weekend. So, and it's important for Ferrari, you know, Tom, because they've got to, they're not going to get many opportunities. So they've got to take them. And if this is a circuit where they should do well, they've got to make the most of the fact that they've improved their strategy. They've improved their operations. They've got to knit it all together and take these chances because Mercedes won't keep falling over. And in Hamilton, they've got a guy with a fantastic record here eight wins nine poles um do you think lewis's problems if we can call them that at spa were any indication that he's losing that immense form he had a few races ago or was it just a sort of perfect storm of unfortunate things coming together yeah i was i was thinking about this coming into the weekend and for me i think it was more a blip rather than the start of maybe a downward trend because he was fourth in the end on the road and he was irritated by that and actually if you go back a year or so ago fourth well that should have been an incredible result so I think he'll be able to hold on to the fact that he was able to to damage limitation that race when he clearly just didn't feel quite comfortably through the weekend and got a decent result in it he's now second in the championship still so I think no I actually think he's still at his peak to the point where he's only going to get better this year because I think ever since he's got that win in Spain it's unlocked something in him that he hasn't quite got to the top off yet and it's just a matter of time before he gets there so no I think things are only going to get better and I think Charles and Proven will actually help push him on as well and I think it's pretty handy that he's coming to a circuit now like you said that he's so much success for because i think we've seen in the past when he does that it does help him get a good result out of that track he's a confidence driver as well right and this is a happy hunting ground and he's going to come here with it with full of confidence right absolutely i've proved before so i can do it again and i think perhaps where he's at now he probably needs to call upon that kind of thing more often than he may he would have done in his really successful years at mercedes I think he's just at a stage where that kind of stuff is making the little differences.

12:05Lawrence Barretto:So it's interesting, isn't it, how drivers change and their mentality and what they need and what they don't need at certain times. But yeah, I think he's right in the mix this weekend. And I think he will enter this weekend realistically thinking he can win it.

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13:07The prize is a pair of grandstand tickets only for the Formula One Spanish Grand Prix 2026 in Madrid. You must be aged 18 or over to enter. For full terms and conditions and your chance to win, go to f1.com forward slash podcast dash win dash Madrid. Good luck.

13:30Right, just behind Mercedes and Ferrari, we've got this really fascinating battle between McLaren and Red Bull. McLaren have won the last two races here at the Hungarov Ring. I mean, what chance? A third, a hat trick? It feels unlikely, given everything we've just said

13:47Lawrence Barretto:about the other teams as well. I think this is the tricky thing, isn't it? Is that the top four teams are all performing reasonably strongly from circuit to circuit. But I actually think mclaren are in the mix and i'm not just saying that yeah because i think i'm not trying to get on a hype train but it's more that they're going to bring a big upgrade here and i think what mclaren have done really well in the past is they've waited until they know the update is going to be performant before they brought it here it's been a few races now when lando and oscar have said you know we're falling a little bit behind because others are bringing stuff so they are bringing new bits here they're going to trial their their flippy flappy wing here but that's just a trial it's more that i think it's the floor updates and they're improving the overall car and we know how important the floor is and i think that we will see a step from them and i think it will again help that this circuit suited their kind of general concept to resake because they've obviously won here the last couple of years and i think they i think they are going to be in the mix you know they can't all be in the mix i get that but i think we saw lando deliver a really strong performance in spa when probably the car wasn't really up to it and so i think that if he's able to do that and have the confidence in the car when he knows they're off the pace and they're just searching for performance there is no reason why if they slap this update on and they understand it quickly and it delivers what the wind tunnel said it was there's absolutely no reason why they won't be in the thick of it this week and what about Oscar Piastri he's been a tad behind hasn't he behind his teammate of recent races do you think as they improve the car and slap on more downforce we'll see the gap between him and Lando Norris reduce yeah I think so because I think there is I think a big reason why Zac Brown is so keen to hold on to both of them is because he knows how closely matched they are and how good a pairing they are.

15:26Lawrence Barretto:So I don't for one minute think that just because Oscar hasn't got the results that Lando has delivered recently that he is off the pace or losing it. I just think he hasn't quite come together for him in the same way. And I think that this update and a more performance will kind of move him out of that area of maybe jostling for that last block of seventh or eighth because when they're the fourth best of the top four teams, to when it gets you up slightly closer, I think it will just make that difference where it will kind of pull him into the mix. So I do think Lando's got the edge on him at the minute and fair play to him because I think he's done a lot of work to really step on from that first race of the season where he didn't seem to be enjoyed life.

16:02Lawrence Barretto:I think he's really come on quite quickly, but I think they're pretty evenly matched and Oscar's just a little bit behind. And where do you see Red Bull then in all this? Because they were really strong. You know, it was a really, really good P3 for Max, quite a lonely race. And of course, that amazing fight back from Isaac Hadjar as well. I think the encouraging thing for Red Bull is that Max was the happiest from, say, lap one in Spa till the end about the car. Like, we didn't really hear that many outbursts about, you know, he'd mentioned the downshifts, but he was just generally happier about how things felt.

16:35Lawrence Barretto:And it's been a long time, I think, since we had that. And I know they haven't got or they didn't have in Spa the ultimate performance to go and chase the win. But I think, A, they gave Max confidence again in a car, you know, and after the two accidents they had had in Austria and Silverstone, that was probably jobless number one to do and then the car was still p3 um in the race when they knew that they wouldn't be able to fight for the win i think it's strong and i think they're going to try and get that rear wing back i think they've got more bits in in the car to come as well for upgrades so actually i think they're in the mix and we talk often about the max verstappen factor and i think that will come into it of course it will do that he get he'll bring an extra tenth or two because he's max verstappen it is difficult to see where he will slot in exactly and i think the formal one that we've got at the minute now is actually if everyone performs at that ultimate limit i would probably put him like fifth or sixth but that rarely happens right so i think that's he's been able to capitalize on that really well so i think getting on the front row is completely plausible for him and then when he's in track position especially at a place like Budapest where it's trickier not impossible but trickier to overtake I think he's suddenly in the mix but I think I would probably put Red Bull behind Mercedes and Ferrari at the minute and we've got this unknown of McLaren but I do expect them to make a step now further back but how much further back we're gonna say goodbye to the worst car of 2026 this weekend because Aston Martin are bringing a whole host of upgrades to this race they were three seconds off the pace off off a q2 slot last time out at spa how far up the order are they going to get loz it's the million dollar question isn't it um so i went to a media session with um mike crack this morning trackside chief and he was well firstly as a joke he was asked uh are they new chassis and he was like well do you want to buy the old ones because they're for sale because clearly no one wants those things do they but um he was saying that he's not expecting it to be a make or break which i think is very pragmatic very realistic but he said that they exist to go racing and they haven't been able to do that so i think target number one is basically to take the fight to the midfield and for them to do that you mentioned that stat they have got a humongous gap to close but he made a really good point they haven't spent any money really on the car you know in individual races up until this point so they've been able to put all of that money into this upgrade if it works then in theory it should haul them into the midfield where on earth that will be i don't know because racing balls and aldi have been so strong aldi look good but i think all they really need with this upgrade is to bring them into the pack just bring them into the fight give fernando and lance something to fight with for the weekend you know build that morale of the team um whether or not adrian newey is going to be able to do that because again we're hearing that he was pushing the boundaries like he always does push the deadlines you know it was tight to get parts on the car they've got two full specs here which is great but how many spares do they have and how much was it to the deadline that is exactly what they really wanted here and how much can you learn in one grand prix weekend so i think they're saying all the right things they're trying to take the pressure off themselves but they've got to be in the fight they've got to be with this package because if not what on earth is next and what happens to fernando alonso he's told us all season that he's going to decide his future in the summer the summer break so he's going to come back to Zanvoort the next Grand Prix with a pretty firm idea and do you think a lot of that decision will be based on on the performance this weekend the thing is Tom I understand that he said that he wants to make the decision this summer but I also know he's smart enough not to make a decision based on one race right because Fernando knows that for in Formula One you need time you know to show what you can do with the package, what the best out of it.

20:27Lawrence Barretto:So I am intrigued to know whether or not he will have come back in Netherlands or if he'll want more time. But what I think what he will want to see here is that he would have heard all the engineering meetings. He would have heard what Adrian Newe wants out of this car, you know, over the weeks and months to come. He will want to see if that transpires. And if they are delivering as expected, even if that isn't hauling them to the front of the midfield, I'm pretty sure that's all Fernando will want because that will show that they know what they're doing. they know the direction that they're changing and they know where they're going and I think that's probably what Fernando will need to be able to commit beyond the end of this year because I think if he knows that they're going in the right direction he's got something to fight for he's got something to stay for he's got something to help the team to build to get better for next year so I think that's what he'll be hoping out of this weekend um we're just gonna have to wait and see aren't we and and he'll know within five laps of fp1 on friday just the feeling he gets he'll he'll know yes of course they can build on it and they can hone hone the setup but they always say don't they with a brand new car the drive the the experienced drivers know within five laps whether it's born well or badly yeah and i think that means we'll know maybe after fp1 then what he really thinks whether or not he's going to tell us after fp2 where we get to talk to him or not i don't know but but you're right tom that's a really good point and i think that then it will either be a case of Aston Martin will have to work really hard to convince him more is coming if it wasn't quite right or they'll be in a really good spot because they'll be able to confirm him for next year and then they can all just go about their business and stop talking about the driving market but it's a big yeah it's a big day on Friday to see what that car can do and both you know to be fair in the hands of both Fernando and Lance they've got to go out there and they've got to get as much data as possible and then they've got to see what what they've got to work with the rest of the year probably now while we're talking new packages we're definitely going to see the new aston martin this weekend there is however only historically at least a 13 chance of a safety car and we have a new safety car this weekend in the gt63 pro which is replacing the amg black series which burnt maylander has been driving for the last few years so we may see it only a 13 chance but look out for that if we get a safety car well lawrence it's been fab i'm now going to put you on the spot and ask you for your podium predictions i think i can guess from what you're saying early which way you're going to go at least the color of the car for the win yeah so i think i'm going to go charlotte claire win don't know if that was the driver you're thinking of but i'm going to go charlotte claire win kimmy antonelli second lewis hamilton third Why is Charles ahead of Lewis?

23:06Lawrence Barretto:Because I just think what will potentially make the difference is qualifying. And I think that maybe Charles is just on that greater momentum and in such fine margins, he might just get the edge on it and get that pole. And I think from there, just the way strategy tends to play out here is that will probably give him the edge through the race. But I look forward to Lewis proving me wrong, to be honest, and he'll enjoy telling me that, I'm sure. I've got to go one way, haven't I? What about you? Well, I'm going to go the other way. I'm going same colour, but I'm actually going to go Lewis for the win.

23:35I feel he's the king of this place. And as you said earlier, he was angry about just Sunday at Spa, frustrated and angry. And I think he's going to channel that anger into a mega qualifying lap on Saturday. And I think it might be a Ferrari one too.

23:51Lawrence Barretto:Wow. Yeah. With an Antonelli P3. Which would be huge for the championship, right? I think. And for the mindset and the mentality of the championship, I think. Okay, well, Lawrence, thank you for your time as ever. And in selected countries this weekend, you can watch all the racing with Lawrence and the team on F1 TV and on Apple TV in the US. And you can also keep across the action at F1.com, the F1 app, and at F1 on social media. And in the meantime, do check out F1's other official podcasts. My guest on the latest episode of F1 Beyond the Grid is Racing Bulls team principal, Alan Permain. That's out now on the Beyond the Grid feed.

24:28and you can watch our chat on the F1 YouTube channel. And Yuki Tsunoda joins Christian Hugill on this week's F1 Explains podcast that will be above this show on the F1 Nation feed from Friday. Thanks very much for listening. We will, of course, be back on Monday to review the Hungarian Grand Prix. So we'll speak to you then. F1 Nation is produced by Formula One and Audioboom Studios.

25:01Thank you.