‘Championship-deciding moments’ in Brazil? – 2025 Sao Paulo GP Preview with Jolyon Palmer + Erik van Haren

28:46Have you noticed a change inside the team? Well, the first thing you feel and can sense is the different mood in the team. You don't have to be a psychologist to feel and see that. If you are there in the hospitality room, on what track whatsoever, then there's less paranoia. Maybe is that a good word? It's not only because of Christian, but you had two sides in the team. That was not a secret anymore. So it was also a bit awkward if you were there. That's completely done. Part two is that you feel and see that Verstappen is really happy with Mackie's, the new team principal, and the way he works with his engineering background, the way he talks with him, the setup change they made, the philosophy change they made.

29:34But also the new floor in Monza was a good one in a good direction and that was already planned months before, so when Christian Horner was there. So it's not only about Mackies, but for sure he did a great job in his first months and weeks. And you see they made some progress in the way they set up the car, more full all in on Friday already not have the luxury anymore to wait till Saturday and then turn the car upside down because you saw on a lot of weekends they needed three practice sessions and even they they would have loved to have five or six practice sessions to find the the right setup of the car you don't have that that power anymore that advantage anymore like you had a few years ago especially now in this race weekend like in Brazil because you have only one free practice but you feel a different mood in the car in the team you see Verstappen is more happy of course also part of the results but um yeah he feels bad and of course he's not criticizing christian uh but we did an interview last week and i asked him do you think this change in results would that also be in the case if if there was no team principle change uh and then he said yeah that's impossible to know but he said what i can say is that i'm really happy with laurent and really happy that there's peace in the team that there's no fighting anymore between the two shareholders right the thai owner and the austria owner so um i think that's that's are the that are the major points but we saw in mexico that's not like a magic button they hit and that's always going to be perfect and like jolien explained uh he won and he was ahead of the mclaren's in singapore in baku and um but you couldn't say for sure that they had a quicker car but i think if rebu was close enough with the car uh then for stop it can make the difference They're developing the RB21 a lot later into the season than their rivals.

31:27Is Max worried that they're going to compromise 2026 as a result? Well, he's not a guy who you can say he's a worrying type of guy. And yeah, the easy answer for them is that they're completely right. In 21, we said the same thing when they developed the car way more than Mercedes did that year. Of course, Mercedes had their power advantage, the engine advantage at the end. And then in 22, with the new rules, Mercedes was on the back foot and Rebel was dominant again. or at least competitive together with Ferrari at the time. So that's the easy answer. And no one knows for sure. It's the same with the power unit.

32:09Everyone is saying Red Bull will be on the back foot. But yeah, how can you know that for sure? And I don't think you can say, if you're like in Zanford, more than 100 points behind, that you think, okay, we develop this car to see what happens. I think you can also learn from this car for next year, although the car will be different, but you can still learn, of course. I know we're previewing the Sao Paulo Grand Prix, but can we just look even further ahead, Eric? Do you think it's a foregone conclusion that Max will leave Red Bull at the end of 26? Or what has Red Bull got to do to keep him for 27 and beyond?

32:47Maybe a better question. I thought this question would come next year, Tom, but we can do it now again. Oh, it will. It'll come next year as well. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's a funny thing, right? Everyone, if Verstappen is leaving Formula One, a lot of storage will be gone because this year he entertained us without his influence, like two or three months with, where is he going in 26? Of course, he said, I'm staying at Rebel in 26. and everyone is looking in a better place, in a better shape now. But if in 26, the car is not good enough, it's not competitive. Of course, after two or three races, we're getting these questions again.

33:26And then I'm sure he will think, okay, maybe I'll leave. And I think for 27, there are a lot of options on the table. And for Verstappen, there will, I think, almost everywhere place a spot. So it's not definite yet. You can't say it yet. He has a lot of time to make up his mind. But if the Rebel is not competitive this year, I think the chance is still quite big that he will leave the team and will drive somewhere else in 27. All right, well, let's bring it back to Sao Paulo. Guys, just as a final thought then about this coming weekend and the championship, is it still in Max's hands or is he going to rely on the McLarens having a problem?

34:09Is that what he needs now?

34:11Jolyon Palmer:I think it's still just about in his hands. I was trying to figure this out. Obviously, Mexico was a hit because Lando's points gap went up, even if the gap to Oscar went down. But if he wins in Brazil, and I think it'll be in the balance, if he can win there, the gap will be less than 30. Then Vegas is going to be the big opportunity where you've got Mercedes will be quick. They're always quick in Vegas. Ferrari's a wild card McLaren could easily end up being 6th, 7th and that'll be the opportunity for Max to get 15 points out of the McLarens in Vegas so I don't, I mean it's in his hands to get it down to the wire it will be, I think if you're Max now, 4 races to go, you've got to just think let's get the gap as close as it can be for Abu Dhabi and then the pressures on McLaren and we've seen so many strange things in season finales where especially a team like McLaren, if they've got two drivers in the fight by then, start to jeopardize themselves by trying to all this fairness talk.

35:18Jolyon Palmer:And it's the chance for Max to do something special from a little bit further back. So probably it's in his hands to get close. Let's say that. And then anything can happen at the end. Eric, if he wins this championship, do you think it'll be his best performance, better even than 2023 when he won 19 out of 22 races uh yeah difficult to compare i think last year was also really impressive because he had a one of 10 races in a row he didn't win right um and lando came came closer um 23 is also like it's really easy to say yeah he had such a dominant car so then maybe people say oh that was so easy for him but what i think a lot of people forget I can remember that, especially in the European races, almost every weekend we had wet sessions, if it was qualifying or race or both, and still he won almost all the races.

36:13And in those circumstances, it's really easy to make a mistake or not win a race, at least. And he showed then how consistent he can be. So that's also really impressive. But if he wins this year, then it's the comeback of the century. maybe the the greatest comeback ever in the history of formula one so um that's also really impressive and then then yeah that he shows that he is by far the best driver i think everyone is now already saying he's the best driver but if you can beat the mclaren with this car then then it

36:44Jolyon Palmer:shows how good you are as a driver it has to be his best ever by miles if he can win this because of the way where he's come from and i think because of the driver that we've seen him in the last few years you know that if you give max a sniff the mclarens both know if he starts to get another win two wins and then we're coming to the last two races and he's close he is a driver that's capable of just continuing this form and and getting results even if the car is not even if it's slightly on a difficult weekend even in mexico he nearly got second place out of that which was incredible and that's what he's got in his locker i think the the mentality of max Verstappen is scary enough for the McLaren drivers, I think, at this stage.

37:56pressure. And in moments like that, you think this is a job for sponsored jobs because Indeed sponsored jobs boost your listing in search results, helping you reach the candidates with the specific skills and experience you actually need. And it works. Sponsored jobs posted directly on Indeed are 95 % more likely to report a hire than non-sponsored jobs. That's a serious edge when the pressure's on. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. Less stress, less time, more results. When you need the right person to cut through the chaos, this is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs.

38:35And listeners of this show will get a$75 sponsored job credit to help get your job the premium status it deserves at Indeed.com slash podcast. Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? This is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs. Back to school starts now. Get long-lasting battery life on the Dell XPS laptop powered by Series 3 Intel Core so you can work from anywhere. Now starting at$699 with exclusive student pricing starting at$599. And it's lightweight, portable and packed with enough processing power to make multitasking a breeze.

39:27So say goodbye to distractions and hello to more free time because you've finished your work faster. Complete your setup with savings on select monitors and more must-have electronics and accessories. Limited time deals and free shipping on PCs and more await you at dell.com forward slash deals. That's dell.com slash deals.

40:00there's more to come from our sao paulo preview in a moment but i just wanted to let you know about the other official f1 podcasts you can listen to this week mclaren ceo zach brown and team principal andrea stella join me on f1 beyond the grid that's out on wednesday and you can watch our chat on the official f1 youtube channel as well and you can hear more from joelian in the latest episode of F1 Explains, which is all about data and also features Oscar Piastri's race engineer, Tom Stallone. Just search for F1 Beyond the Grid and F1 Explains on your podcast app.

40:38Right, that's the battle for the championship, the driver's championship, but there's so much battling going on still in the constructors championship. Let's start by looking at the battle for p2 there's just 10 points separating ferrari mercedes and red bull back-to-back podiums for charlotte claire in austin and mexico let's start with ferrari why have they been

41:02Jolyon Palmer:stronger in the last couple of races jolene well uh good question you know remember how badly they started in austin uh they were on the friday of austin they were really really struggling and That Friday was hopeless, wasn't it? Yeah, it looked like they were completely lost for the season. And there was talk coming from Lewis saying that we're just in testing now. This is just testing for getting up to speed with the team, learning some bits for next year's car, even if it's changing. And then they obviously made some significant setup changes overnight, learning from the sprint in Austin and brought the car to life.

41:39Jolyon Palmer:They've always struggled with their plank wear. It's pretty well known. So maybe they were cautious on a sprint weekend, having had some some dqs in the past and then and then the car was working well and then mexico is a circuit they've they've gone well at in the past as well there's on maximum wing even if it's a low downforce configuration they've they've got their their biggest wing on because of that thin air uh which generally is they they've done well on this year as well when you look at monaco you look at budapest when uh leclerc was on pole so it's it's a configuration of their car that that works well they obviously are good in it's a quirky circuit as well mexico in terms of getting the tires fired up um you slide around a huge amount and and the car was working working pretty well in qualifying pace in race pace i think they were pretty happy that ollie behrman had a storming race and got ahead of the rest of the field because you could see in the end the way that max was clawing back on on charles both on a one stop that i think charles finishing second was really by virtue of a really good qualifying and once Lewis dropped back he was actually no better than any of those other midfielders so that's still an issue for them but the field's close and when they when they hook up the setup well they can be competitive in qualifying and then from there you've got a chance of a podium.

43:00You have to go back to 2017 to the last time Ferrari won at Interlagos so you know you say they always have gone well in Mexico it hasn't certainly in the current regulation set hasn't been so good for Ferrari in Brazil.

43:16Jolyon Palmer:Yeah, that's a pretty bad stat for them, especially when they've had competitive cars over the years in that time, especially in the 22 year, even the 23 year, they could fight on some circuits. But yeah, it's obviously not been a happy underground. And it has been for Mercedes as well, which is the problem for Ferrari. When you think about George Russell winning in 22, Hamilton obviously had a storming drive in 21 with the old era of car as well so this and Vegas as well you could argue are circuits that are well suited to Mercedes you mentioned Lewis he had his best qualifying of the year for Ferrari in Mexico um okay the race was a bit messy for him but do you think he's starting to make progress what do you think his mindset is going to be going into the Brazil weekend, honorary citizen of Brazil as he is.

44:10Jolyon Palmer:He loves it, doesn't he? He's always enjoyed Brazil, even in, well, like I said, the legendary 21 year where he had the fight with Max, but he's always gone really well. Obviously, it's his first year with Ferrari there, so he'll be hoping that this is a chance for him to get ahead of Charles on the grid. That gap in qualifying has come down a lot as the year's gone on, even if it was still Leclerc ahead of Hamilton on the grid. It was very close in Mexico as well. And I think he's got a bit of mojo back from nowhere, having had that really tough run. The fact that the car's got a bit more competitive, he can sense that that podium's not too far away.

44:49Jolyon Palmer:I think he's going to be just trying desperately to get ahead of Leclerc and trying to see out the year with a podium and anything more is a bonus. Eric, how do you see the battle for P2 and the constructors between Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull, just those 10 points between them i think like johnny said mercedes the next tracks will be good for them and i think i think in the constructors it's really important that both drivers are gaining points right not only george but also kimmy antinelli if you look at rebel it's basically one driver i think the second driver has 25 points or something um so that's basically one driver uh but like if i think for now mercedes has maybe the best position but because last year in Qatar they also went well, at least in qualifying with George P2 and finally P1.

45:39So I think on paper they have a good chance and I think George is next to max the best driver of the year. I think if you look at how consistent he is and how he extracts everything out of the car. So if Kimi Antonelli can be a bit on his level or at least be close and I think they can have really good weeks and make a big step because I think for Ferrari, it will be more difficult than in Austin and Mexico. Can I just pick you up on that? You think George Russell has performed better in 2025 than both of the McLaren drivers? Yeah, for me, without a doubt. Because I think if the McLaren drivers will be on his level, there wouldn't be a championship fight at the moment.

46:23JP, you agree, right?

46:24Jolyon Palmer:Well, we had this chat, didn't we? Was it last week? Yeah. Two weeks ago. Yeah. I'm interested that Eric agrees. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, he's a very sound mind. I thought it was Max, then George, and then Oscar at the time for the three in the season. I think you could switch those two McLarens around by the end of the year, depending on what happens. But the point is, it was when Russell got his new contract, wasn't it? And you just couldn't say anything other than he really deserved it because he's carrying Mercedes so much. His performance is just so consistently good. He makes very few errors.

47:00Jolyon Palmer:He's by far the best George Russell that we're seeing this year. And he can play still a big part in the championship, right? He has nothing to lose. You saw it with his overtake attempt on Verstappen in the sprint race in Austin. I think the McLaren drivers would have done it because they are not in a position to take that risk and George has nothing to lose. So that's also quite interesting. Also you saw it with Schaal in Austin in the fight with Lando. So they also, especially Charles and George, can play a big role in that in the fight. I actually thought on that topic, you're absolutely right, and that all of these races, they will have as big a say as the performance out front as well.

47:39But I was amazed.

47:41Jolyon Palmer:Max's move on Lewis, given that context, how punchy was that from so far back? A little bit of wheelbanging. and of all the drivers you're picking Lewis to be the one that you're going to throw that move in with all of their history all of their contacts and everything how Lewis you know eventually obviously tried to keep it in for turn two and then cut the corner at turn four but that could have so easily just ended in in Max and Lewis bit of a tangle some damage and the season is done there it was brave from from Verstappen to pull that one off. JP in defense of Max and that move Lewis has always been one of the cleanest drivers on the green well he has but not necessarily with Max even if you think back to the to the Brazil Brazil 22 wasn't it where Russell got his first win and it was at the end of all of their 21 uh season where I had to say Max was the cause of more contact than Lewis but um they they seem to be like magnets together the same in Hungary I'm thinking it was last year in Hungary 24 and again Max went for the dive there was a contact between them and just those two not necessarily pointing fingers but they seem to always find each other on the track and Max doesn't actually have contact with that many drivers Lewis very rarely has contact with other drivers but if they're gonna have contact it seems to be with each other a lot and so with all of that that was the the boldness of Verstappen's move in Mexico just because he has I know less to lose than the McLarens but still a potential championship and if you're Lewis he's fighting for nothing apart from maybe a podium so if someone's lunging you for p3 you're going to get elbows out you're going to be 10 out of 10 aggressive back on you Well, that's the battle for P2, but we have four teams battling for P6, just 12 points separating Racing Bulls, Aston Martin, Haas and Sauber.

49:44Haas jumping up from P9 to P8 after Oli Behrman's sensational P4 in Mexico. So guys, whose favourite? Are Racing Bulls going to stay in P6?

49:56Jolyon Palmer:I think the attack is going to be from Haas, isn't it? It's Racing Bulls trying to hold on from Haas for me because of the way that we saw Behrman's race in Mexico, but he's got points in the last three Grand Prix. He's absolutely flying. They've bought upgrades quite late on. They're working really well. They've got on top of this Austin upgrade as well. Ocon's also in the points. Racing Bulls feels like they're hanging on. And I can see Haas doing it all, actually, coming back past the bunch of them if they could put more clean races together. Yeah, I won't rule out Sauber as well because I think the last week, of course, Bartoletto is doing a great job, but the last week's Hülkenberg is also doing better.

50:44And Racing Bulls, I think when you look at the car, at some tracks, they are really strong. And there was even a team principal saying to me last week in Mexico, he still thinks Racing Bulls has a better car and at least a more stable car than Red Bull. But the only thing with racing bulls is that the driver still has to prove themselves, right? They're not sure for their seat next year. Of course, Hadjar, yeah, we all expect him to go to Red Bull. But for Lawson, it's still, yeah, he has to fight for his seat. But it's not always an advantage, I think, if you are in that position. Can be, but you can also be over the limit.

51:20So that's maybe also some aspect coming into play. but I think it can be really close. We don't speak about Esther Martin. Maybe that's also the reason. I think it will be really close between Racing Bulls Haas and Sauber for that P6.

51:36Jolyon Palmer:I've been surprised how much Behrmann is now beating Esteban Ocon at Haas as well. I think if Ocon could find Behrmann's level of performance, then they would be fighting as a duo in Q3 a lot more regularly. but it seems like Behrman's really getting on top of things and Ocon's just starting to fade in that in that comparison uh but then at the same time you look at the other teams and you think yeah Racing Bulls Hajar's doing a lot Lawson occasionally has better weekends but it's Hajar that's making Q3 and has a better chance of scoring points Aston Martin is is such a one-card team isn't it it's difficult to see any weekend where you turn up and think Stroll's going to get points maybe he will at some point especially if there's a wet race coming up he can end up there but it's just it's Fernando that's leading the charge there and then Sauber at least have got two drivers that on any given day can can score a point so watch out Aston Martin if we're playing snakes and ladders Aston Martin could could slide back and Haas and Sauber could climb forward very easily in these last four weekends I reckon so I think if you were if you were racing bulls sitting there in sixth place you're not feeling comfortable Eric quick word on Hadjar.

52:51You said you're expecting Hadjar to go to Red Bull, but we don't know anything for certain yet. So, when are we going to get confirmation of Red Bull's driver line-up for 26? Well, it was interesting because the top advisor of the team, Helmut Marko, said for weeks or months that the decision will be made after Mexico, and we are there now, but now they said in Mexico it will be not before, yeah, around Qatar, Abu Dhabi. It will be before Abu Dhabi, Mackey said, so it will be maybe end of November, beginning of December. And that also has to do because they want to confirm the four drivers of the whole Red Bull family in one.

53:26So, of course, we know Verstappen for sure, but also the other three. It's not a secret that Helmut Marko wants Harjard and Red Bull and Arvid Lindahl to the racing bulls. But Helmut Marko is not the only one deciding. It's also Mackies and maybe the Red Bull sports boss, Oliver Minslav and his team. So I think they give themselves more time. and also between Yuki and Liam who get the last seat. But normally I would say if Harjard continues like this, he will be next to Verstappen next year. And then I think a lot of people will say, is it not too early after one year? But yeah, at the other side you can say it will be complete new cars next year.

54:08So it gives him maybe a fresh start. But maybe Yuki can also do a great job the next couple of weeks and maybe he can say to the Red Bull owners, maybe I deserve a second chance in this team. But we already knew when Yuki came into the team that it was normally a shortened decision, right? Because at first they gave the trust to Lawson. Well, the trust lasted two races. But if they were really convinced about Yuki, they will have put him in the car already at the beginning of the year. well guys thank you both very much for your time it's been a brilliant chat uh we're going to end this with some podium predictions uh from each of you i would like a sprint winner and then a one two three for the race on sunday who's going first jp uh let's go sprint winner

55:04Jolyon Palmer:is norris then i think norris also wins the race i think this is the weekend he starts to become a real championship favorite uh then Verstappen comes second and let's go Piastri's third and we're all still close heading towards Vegas. Jolien can we just look at the hunter versus hunted dynamic do you think the fact that Lando is now sitting at the top of the pile uh being shot at so to speak do you think that will affect his mentality going into these last races do you think he'll feel the pressure i'd be so excited to be at the top of the pile getting shot at it's such a it's such a better position to be in because if i'm lando now you're one point ahead but you're thinking i want to be champion but i want to be out of out of touch by the time we get to abu dabi now with the run with the form that he's on he's not seeing a gap dwindle down he's just seeing it it grow well he's seeing it swing towards him so i think if i'm lando i'm thinking let's build this to be at least 15 points by Abu Dhabi, maybe more.

56:14Jolyon Palmer:And yeah, with every win now, he's getting so much closer to the title. And obviously with that buffer, you can build in the chance of something going wrong as well. Oscar's kind of lost that chance now. If anything goes wrong for him, because he's lost the buffer, he will probably be out of the title race. And Max never had the opportunity anyway. If anything goes wrong for Max, he's done. whereas Lando with this run if he wins two more races he can afford to have one that's not so good and he'll still be there for Abu Dhabi I think as well if Lando wins in Brazil he will win the championship so I'm not saying he's going to win Huge I will say Verstappen winning the sprint and then I didn't look to the weather forecast but then I will say it will rain so it gives Verstappen even more advantage so he will win the race as well on Sunday George Russell second as the second consistent drive of the year.

57:05And then Lennon Norris P3. I think Max is at his best when his back's against the wall. Just look at the drive he put in at Interlagos last year. He was furious after qualifying because it didn't go well. And yet he wins the race later that day from P17. I think his back is against the wall after what went on in Mexico. So we're going to see the very best of our four-time champion in Brazil. So he's where I'm putting my money for the sprint win and the Grand Prix win. And then I think we're going to see the two McLarens raise their game because they have to now. It's four to go. So I think in the Grand Prix itself, I see Oscar Piastri coming back.

57:49I see him P2 and Lando P3.

57:52Jolyon Palmer:TC, imagine if we get weather like last year, how nervous you'd be as a McLaren driver now. because that's the one thing where it could bring Max right into play. He is the king of the wet. Do you remember his save? Was it 2016? He was just coming up the hill towards the start-finish straight. There's something about Max and Brazil. It is so easy to crash in the wet of Brazil. Of all the circuits on the calendar, Brazil in the wet is hideous to drive. So that's the thing. You've got Max, who's got great form there, and you've got the McLarens with the best car, the best opportunity, but such an easy chance to ruin it all if it rains.

58:38Jolyon Palmer:So, oh, it's going to be a good one, isn't it? It's going to be a humdinger of a weekend in Brazil. And guys, thank you both very much for your time. Great to talk it all through. Eric, great to have you back on the show again. And JP, I look forward to seeing you at Interlagos. See you then. Thank you, Tom. if you have F1 TV you'll be able to enjoy Jolyon's analysis of all the racing in Sao Paulo this weekend and you can keep across the action at F1.com the official F1 app and at F1 on social media as well thank you very much for listening as ever we will of course be back next Monday from the Interlagos paddock with our review of the Sao Paulo Grand Prix F1 Nation is produced by Formula 1 and Audioboom Studios

59:39Cadillac has entered Formula One, deepening the racing pedigree behind every V-Series on the road. Discover a line-up that delivers pure adrenaline in the form of modern luxury. Experience the quickest Cadillac ever The all-electric Lyric V The peak performance of the CT5V Blackwing The nimble agility of the Optic V And the legendary roar of the Escalade V All engineered to thrill Find out more about Cadillac's performance story in Formula 1 And our race-tested V-Series line-up at cadillac.com