Difficult decisions for Ferrari + Mercedes? – Austrian GP Preview

24:30He's so pumped at the moment. And that momentum that he can create, I think, will almost become an unstoppable force. I think Charles Leclerc won't have any option, particularly if he scores more than the Austrian Grand Prix next week.

24:45James Hinchcliffe:Yeah, and I think that's ultimately got to be Hamilton's goal, right? He has to make it an inevitability. He has to force Ferrari. He's got to just eliminate the option of Cheryl staying kind of in the fight and Ferrari not taking that approach. It's going to be interesting. But at the same time, it's a great learning opportunity. This is actually something that Montoya said on our post-race show on F1 TV is this is a great learning opportunity. Now you're seeing classic Lewis. You're seeing the driver that's won all these championships and how he gets it done. He clearly needs to be in the right mindset and he needs to be in the right mentality and he's found that space again.

25:23James Hinchcliffe:And now we're starting to kind of witness the greatness that is Hamilton. And even that comment, TC, after qualifying of, oh, yeah, he was trying to do what I was doing. that's the first like jab that i've heard from hamilton charlotte this it is i mean it's there's that is a very conscious thing that was a very deliberate comment uh and and that's what a champion has to do you've got to get the team to side with you you've got to get them into your corner on your side of the garage and you know that's that's definitely the the way it's swinging at the moment i mean jp you say that mercedes can't do that at the moment because both george and Kimi think they can win the World Championship.

26:04Well, George is 50 points behind his teammate now. And it seems that every race we've been to for the last month, Kimi has been faster than George. I mean, I would say George Russell woke up on Monday morning after Spain thinking I've got a serious problem on my hands. Even though I've just closed the gap to Kimi Antonelli by 18 points in the World Championship, I have a serious problem because he's quicker than me pretty much every stage of the Grand Prix. It doesn't matter whether we're at Barcelona, whether we're at Monaco. You say they can't do that, but why not? I think maybe Toto Wolff has to stop them fighting.

26:42Jolyon Palmer:It's too early for Mercedes to implement that because I think George, he's earned the right over years to have a shot at this that's not just evaporated in, what, seven races this year. But you could say the same about Charles Leclerc at Ferrari, right? Yeah, but TC, he's so far away. What's the points difference? Leclerc to Antonelli. Leclerc is 81. Leclerc is 81 behind Antonelli. George is 50. Yeah, but George is in a Mercedes, which is still better than the Ferrari. So my point here is if Ferrari want to win the title, they're going to do it with fundamentally an inferior car. They will get closer.

27:19Jolyon Palmer:There will be races where they're ahead and Barcelona was great, but Barcelona was still then beating the juggernaut of Mercedes. George Russell is in one of those Mercedes. If he just gets the upper hand on Kimi again, then he will start winning races. If Charles Leclerc starts getting the upper hand over Lewis, he still has to beat Mercedes as well. So for me, that's why I think Hamilton is a long shot. Leclerc is just too far back in an inferior car. Russell's 50 points back, but he's in the best car so that's why i think it's really tricky for toto to stop george at the moment now of course that will come if in three four five races time george really is too far back and you've got a bigger threat coming from lewis possibly in a miraculous world shall but realistically lewis then toto might have to make a call and and prioritize kimmy if he's still on fire but But I don't think he can make that call at the moment.

28:17Jolyon Palmer:50 points. Russell did take pole in Spain. I know the race was underwhelming from him, but at least he showed that he's got one lap pace again, and it was three tenths. It wasn't a small gap. So I think it's a good problem for Toto to have, but it's still nonetheless a strength for Ferrari compared to Mercedes if they want to use it. Hench, do you think the battle between George and Kimi in Barcelona in that second stint cost Kimi Antonelli, if he hadn't had a technical problem, did it cost him the win? Would he have been ahead at the virtual safety car if they hadn't been tripping over each other?

28:56James Hinchcliffe:It certainly cost him a shot at the win. I think it's too strong to say that it cost him the win just because the pace of Lewis at the end of that race, I mean, what did he pull, 19 seconds or something over George, who I get didn't have the same pace as Lewis, But it's still a tremendous pace that the Ferrari had. So, you know, the romantic in me wants to believe that Hamilton was going to win that race either way. But, you know, for sure, it added a bunch of race time to Kimi's race. He was the quicker of the two by the end of, you know, the second half of the Grand Prix for sure. And it eliminated a shot for him to win that race.

29:34James Hinchcliffe:And that's something I know that Mercedes is already looking very closely at. because worst case scenario, I mean, how many times have we seen, let him go, let him try to catch the leader. If he can't do it, swap the positions back. They didn't even have that conversation or at least not publicly, right?

29:51Jolyon Palmer:The only way that race would have been close is if Mercedes had made the call lap 33, you had Hamilton on his obvious three stop, Mercedes both staying out. You had Antonelli forcing Russell to defend in the middle stint. and the only way that race would have been close is if mercedes had ordered russell to just let antonelli through so now you've got kimmy in clear air effectively against lewis in clear air at that stage and then no virtual safety car because i think with the virtual safety car probably lewis comes out behind kimmy but we'd have the tire advantage we'd have to pass him but still could

30:26James Hinchcliffe:be doable would it would another another moment not have been when they covered lewis when they covered Lewis with George on that first stop pivot to the three stop I mean if you're going to cover the guy but cover him on a completely different strategy it almost it almost didn't make any

30:40Jolyon Palmer:sense they got stuck between a two and a three didn't they they covered as if it was a three stop didn't cover him the second time but I think that's because Hamilton's outlap was so good that it was a sketchy cover to pit then for for Russell and they had Norris keeping them in check as well as a second Ferrari driver on the day, just keeping them in check on a two-stop. So tricky one, but I agree. The strategy for Mercedes wasn't 10 out of 10. Isn't it amazing? We're talking about Ferrari calling the shots on the strategy. The car's fantastic. When they bring new parts to the car, it gets quicker.

31:19They've got two drivers, but particularly Lewis, who's firing on all cylinders at the moment. It feels like such a different beast in Maranello compared to even 12 months ago.

31:30Jolyon Palmer:And the innovation on the car. You can see it from the start of the year. They've got a duo, so they've got some power unit performance to bring. So have Mercedes. So we'll see how that pans out. If they can get that sorted, they could have maybe the best car by the end of the year. There's a lot to be positive about for Ferrari.

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32:26Well, what about this coming weekend, guys? So we're off to Austria, into the Styrian Mountains. It's such a beautiful race. Look, talk us through the challenges of the Red Bull Ring. 4.3 kilometres, a lot shorter than it used to be when it was called the Osterreiche Ring back in the 70s and 80s. Who do you think it's going to favour? What about the challenge?

32:48Jolyon Palmer:It's a circuit of two halves. It's big brakes and fast corners. so it's power sensitive which is why again i think mercedes will be in a strong position all of those the first half is fairly lengthy straight with a big stamp on the brakes and low speed corners then you'll get into the the fast stuff it's a brilliantly flowing track actually it's undulating the braking zones themselves are really tricky you got turn three then the downhill turn four loads of people running through the gravel especially on that downhill braking zone and then the fast stuff is really really nice couple of left couple of rights use all the curb but if you take a little bit too much it can it can catch you particularly in the final final corner and it's such a short lap as well so it's really punishing of any mistake because you've only got like five or six other chances to to make up for it if you have a little lock or a

33:39James Hinchcliffe:missed apex somewhere i agree with you i think it is still going to be um you know favored towards Mercedes, everybody talking about, you know, Ferrari being really good in medium speed corners, but maybe Charles still struggling with the brakes, getting up to speed there. It'll be interesting to see actually if, if Hamilton can still maintain that sort of, uh, that sort of pace. And if Red Bull find the balance, we know what Max can do at a track where the, where the balance is good and the driver can make the difference. And because the margins are so small there because it's such a short lap, you know, an exceptional run through a sector can actually, you know make quite a big difference so we know that max is capable of that if he's got that car handling the way he wants it to so i still think it's advantage mercedes but it could be a it could

34:22Jolyon Palmer:be entertaining race i throw one more in there lando norris he is exceptional around that track uh took a big pole last year won the race with that big battle with um with with oscar he was brilliant as well in spain like the fact that he was even close to the to the mercedes throughout out he was a long way ahead of of oscar i feel like norris is is finding really strong form and i think he individually will be really strong why is he so good around the red bull ring as you say his poll last year was like half a second on the shortest lap on the calendar monaco aside yeah there was a little bit of of yellow flags in there as well from from memory but his form over the years whether it's a non-upgraded mclaren and he's busting up to the top three an upgrade and McLaren is absolutely flying there uh it's a circuit of just I think it's little bits of technique so you're lined you've got some off camber the the really tight hairpin turn three is a tricky one you're breaking uphill you can break exceptionally late and then getting traction is is difficult um again the braking and your lines your curb use down into the um into the hairpin and then just a flow through that the second half of the lap it is it's a short but it's a kind of quirky circuit where if you find a flow you find a rhythm you pick up the right curbs you you get the the balance so you've got confidence to attack through the the apex speed particularly the faster corners you can just get into that zone and it seems to just thrive there and can we explain the difference I mean we've talked a lot about Hamilton versus Leclerc Russell versus Antonelli what about the gap at the moment at least between Norris and his McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri.

36:08Oscar seems, having come out of the blocks pretty well at the start of the season, he seems to be struggling relative to Lando at the moment.

36:17James Hinchcliffe:Yeah, I mean, we've always known Oscar to be good at, you know, fast tracks and obviously his first Grand Prix that he actually participated in this year at Japan, you know, raced quite well and had the better of Norris. So you almost would have expected Spain of all places to maybe be a little bit more in his wheelhouse. But again, these cars have a lot less downforce. They're sliding around a lot more. They're moving around a lot more. We know that that is something that Lando sort of excels at in these quote unquote low grip conditions. I'm not by any stretch trying to say a modern Formula One car has got low grip, but the temperatures being what they were, the tires degrading like they were, that's still a little bit more towards Lando's wheelhouse.

36:59James Hinchcliffe:So there's a chance that it's just you know he's he's still getting used to how to get these cars to go super quick when they are moving around a little bit more um it could be something as simple as that it could be something as you know as simple as once the conditions are a little cooler and uh and closer to what he likes that you know we'll see that uh see that that oscar magic return but it is interesting that kind of so far lando really has had the upper hand do you think McLaren are close to winning a race?

37:29Jolyon Palmer:I think they are. When you look at the pace they had in Barcelona, if they'd qualified better or got the lead at the start, they could have won that race. Norris is there right with Russell and Antonelli. He was on the same strategy as them, so it's difficult to compare him to Hamilton. And I think they will get more opportunities as well, with upgrades working, fine-tuning the parts they've already bought. They will win a race in the next handful of races. Now, we've mentioned Verstappen, four-time winner, of course, at the Red Bull ring, Red Bull's home race. Quick word on Hadjar, very close to him in qualifying.

38:09Is he the most convincing teammate that Max has had in the last few years?

38:14Jolyon Palmer:By far, by miles. I mean, since Daniel Ricciardo at the moment, the stats are so interesting looking at Verstappen versus anyone because I think pretty much no one's comfortably got within four tenths of him as a qualifying average. The outlier here is that Max is troubleshooting a tricky car. They're not absolutely on the best of it yet. And when Max does a much better job, the gap is there a little bit compared to Isaac Hadjar as well. So when the car seems to be a little trickier, we're seeing Hadjar very close to Verstappen. When the car is better in the hands of Verstappen, if Max is on the front row then you're seeing a little bit more of a gap but either either way I think this

38:56James Hinchcliffe:is really impressive from from Hager we've talked in the past you know past two three seasons and we've had some rookies and we kind of compare them to their more experienced teammates right and the the trend kind of was always when a when a car is good then the rookie can be close to the experienced driver you know when the car is not in a great window the veteran's able to kind of piece it all together and extract a bit more pace. It's kind of been the opposite. It's like you said, when, when Max is in his happy place, he's still absolutely untouchable. And I don't think the qualifying gap is actually that much smaller than what we've seen over the last, you know, two, three, four teammates that he's had, but Hadjar is doing a great job navigating a new rule set and, and trying to, like you say, troubleshoot the car, uh, figure things out.

39:45James Hinchcliffe:And when it is tricky, he's able to kind of match, match Max, which I think is, is very impressive. um but yeah i just i wonder if they get that car into a more consistently happy place for max as

39:56Jolyon Palmer:that gap start to grow i don't know that's what i would expect to happen from the from the little trend that we've seen even if hajar stays closer than than sunoda or perez but it remember checo was exactly the same you know the start of their time in the latest set of of new regs was 2022 and the car was a bit understeer it was a bit heavy and they were quite evenly matched for the first four or five races and and it was it was really good and then they improved the car generally and max when he finds the the setup that he can drive no one else can drive it and he can drive it exceptionally quickly and that just makes the difference way bigger and it makes red bull way more competitive so we will see because i think they will get towards that at some point but i thought we we'd reached that moment in miami when red bull upgraded you know was it the steering rack and max seems suddenly much happier and yet here we are a handful of races later and hajar is

40:51James Hinchcliffe:still hanging on to his coattails yeah he wasn't that close in miami was he you know so so when and max is still complaining quite a bit about the car so that the miami update worked for miami certainly um but it's not been sort of the universal fix and and i agree with jp i think the closer they get the balance to where max wants it the harder it is to match what max is able to

41:14Jolyon Palmer:do and monaco as well max was on the front row so again that's when the red bulls suddenly starts talking to max and again i don't think isaac did badly there but you do just see these glimpses where max can suddenly look like a race winner and and isaac isn't quite there or they're both fifth and sixth or seventh and eighth so when it's when it starts talking to max i think we'll see the best of him and we'll see maybe then a really clear picture of how good isaac is compared to the predecessors okay and who else to look out for in austria i mean we saw both alpines back in the points last time out in spain we saw both racing bulls um back in the points as well any reason to think that they won't be knocking on the door again i mean the racing bulls i think

42:00James Hinchcliffe:is a really interesting one you know that's that's a track that a lot of the like i i think to to linblad you know a lot of the junior categories race there so he's got a lot of experience there I think that the racing bulls points in Spain were maybe a touch more legitimate. You know, it was a high attrition race. The Alpines didn't qualify particularly well. They weren't shocking, but they weren't terrific. Both, you know, Lawson was in Q3. Lindblad should have been in Q3. So I think that pace is pretty genuine. And I could see them pulling off another double score there, which could be interesting.

42:33James Hinchcliffe:It's, you know, what happens with the Haases of the grid? um does Audi's you know engine deficit really really hamper them at this track or can you know Hulkenberg still pull out some magic on Saturday and just finish outside the points on Sunday um but no I think I think there's a there's a couple of question marks in that midfield

42:53Jolyon Palmer:Lawson's been brilliant this year hasn't he as an aside only two races he's not just ended up in the points by the checker fly he's done a such a good job um so I expect racing bulls and him to be there and with Alpine I would say Williams will be better in Austria Barcelona is always a difficult race for them and I would expect Mercedes power unit to go quite well in Austria and those two to be back towards the edge of points and I reckon this is points for Audi they haven't scored since Melbourne but they've had all manner of bad luck all manner of hopeless starts but if they can get on top of the starts and avoid some bad luck Audi have got some some pace in hand in Austria I think to get one of their drivers back to the points it was Bortoletto who scored his first world championship points in Austria last year so track he goes he goes well at it's a great drive too yeah that was really really good Grand Prix for him well guys I'm going to ask you for your predictions now because I know how much you love sharing them um who's going to win Hinch I think you can go first this week okay um well for the sake of keeping keeping the championship interesting

44:04James Hinchcliffe:let's say george wins because i do think it's it's still going to be a mercedes track um i do like i do like jp's thought on lando though he is he is exceptional there mercedes power unit's good yeah i i think that one that's an interesting one so i'll throw i'll throw lando up in p2 because why not and let's put Hamilton P3 let's keep it interesting all right I like where your

44:30Jolyon Palmer:head's at there but I'm gonna I'm gonna go a little bit more bit more crushing for the championship chat because I think I think Kimi's gonna do it he's just seems to be fast everywhere I know he didn't nail qualifying in um in Spain but it's also easier to overtake in Austria if he's got the race pace that he had and I just can't see past him at this stage on a track I I think Mercedes will go well out. So Antonelli wins. I also think Lando will get a second place and I will go George picks up third. So McLaren splits the Mercedes for a podium. What do you reckon, TC? When I think of Antonelli, I just think of turn three, lap one last year.

45:08Jolyon Palmer:So do you know what the rules are? You can't think of anything Antonelli last year because we'll write him off all season until we get to like Brazil. Yeah, you think he's flying. So you're going for the win with him. Hinch, you're with George. Well, I think Hamilton's on a roll, guys. I could see Ferrari. I know the cars are very different this year, but people tell me the DNA is the same. Ferrari have always been really strong in Austria. They've had a great record there. I think Hamilton's got the momentum behind him. And I can see a Hamilton win. I'm also a little bit worried about the reliability of the Mercedes as well.

45:47I think that's going to be their Achilles heel all season. And, you know, it's quite a high altitude track, this one. Everything's under a little bit more strain. So maybe if you have a reliability problem, it might raise its head this coming weekend. So anyway, Hamilton for the win, two in a row. Antonelli, I think P2 and a Lando Norris P3. That's me. You're just nodding. You like it?

46:14Jolyon Palmer:No, I'm liking it, T2. It's game on if it happens, isn't it? 34 points. Heading to Silverstone. Surely that's a Hamilton three in a row by then, but we're getting way ahead of ourselves now. And then Fred Vessor, I'm afraid. It really is throw the kitchen sink behind Lewis Hamilton at that point, isn't it? And Charles Leclerc is just going to have to wait for 2027. It does feel like a big weekend, this one, for Charles, for exactly all of those reasons, to make sure that's not the case for himself. And, of course, there aren't any massive breaking zones in Barcelona. You know, one of the few that there are, he tripped over in qualifying last time out.

46:53Whereas we do, as you said, JP, have a lot of big stops coming up in Austria. So I feel we're going to learn more about Scholl under braking this weekend.

47:01Jolyon Palmer:But also, we're all getting a bit carried away with Scholl's nowhere, Scholl's braking's rubbish, all this. In Miami, he was really, really quick. He led the race. Miami is full of big, big stops. You know, there is other races where we've had this year. he has been able to to break so obviously he's he's now changed back to towards hamilton's carbon industry so it'll be a new feeling for him so maybe there is a little bit in that but he's still there he's still there he's still quick on the bandwagon jp but we're actually only reacting to what charles tells us after the monaco grand prix yeah but that's monaco grand prix is not even the best indication for the brakes around a normal circuit you you never hit the brakes with a with 120 peak pressure it's a brake feel rather than like the first three braking zones of austria where it's a brake mash and then release and just look a couple of races before that in miami proofs in the pudding he was ahead of hamilton all weekend very happy we didn't hear a peep about the brakes so i don't know i'm keeping feet on the ground about about leclerc at the moment i think things will come good for him at some point it's just whether ferrari will still want him to to help the hamilton train i've had a look at the forecast it's going to be really hot again uh this coming weekend in austria we've got the softest three compounds oh i might need to

48:25James Hinchcliffe:change my prediction there gc i had i had a look at the weather if i if i'm gonna if i'm gonna be supporting this this high high heat high degradation theory you know favoring ferrari i might have to i might have to join you on the hamilton victory there well i mean it's going to be sort of it's going to be race day is going to be 30 odd degrees um at the red bull ring we've got the c3 c4 c5

48:46Jolyon Palmer:compounds we've got a good few ingredients in here and also i do think you make a very astute point about reliability you add in that level of temperature with some thinner air some some higher altitude some long full throttle stretches as well it's going to test test the mercedes pus

49:11Well, in selected countries, you can watch every session of the Austrian Grand Prix live on F1 TV and on Apple TV in the US. You can also keep across all the action at F1.com, the F1 app and at F1 on social media. And in the meantime, do check out F1's other official podcasts. And my guest on this week's F1 Beyond the Grid is Alpine executive advisor Flavio Briatore. that's out on Wednesday and you can watch our chat on the F1 YouTube channel Flavio in particularly good form this week and on the latest episode of F1 Explains Audi Racing Director Alan McNish takes Christian Hugel inside Audi's brand new European motorhome that's just below this episode on the F1 Nation feed thank you everyone for listening we will of course be back on Monday with our review of the Austrian Grand Prix F1 Nation is produced by Formula One and Audio Boom Studio.

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