‘George won’t play nice’ in title fight with Kimi – Japanese GP Preview

24:09Is there a third driver in this? Let me explain. Remember last year, Max Verstappen being linked to Mercedes, took Mercedes ages to commit to George Russell for this season. Things aren't going so sweetly at Red Bull at the minute. Do you think Max might have been on the telephone to Toto Wolff already talking about 2027? Does that then put pressure on George, maybe, and Kimi to perform? And could that sort of create tension? Could Max's sort of shadow create tension among the current Merc drivers?

24:42Jolyon Palmer:It's a great point. It will. And the conversation is going to happen because Red Bull, I mean, we said this last year, but they will not win the title this year and i was right in the end last year by two points so yeah yeah yeah no it's genius um so they then they've got way too much work to do and max is not here to finish eighth in qualifying he's not here to not even fight for a podium he's going to be looking at a way to get into that mercedes because they have the best car they will at the very least be in the mix for being champions for the next couple of years as well and if you're toto you got a chance to sign max you've got the the threat of other teams closing in so you're you're built an advantage at the start of this year is only going to get smaller you can't ignore the fact that you're max verstappen calling and we saw already those conversations happen last year and there was there was a bit of tension and even was it i think austria where to utc and in the press conference george was like well hang on why are we all talking that he'd replace me i'm beating kimmy all the time so he should be worried so imagine there's the title looming and that in the background.

25:49Jolyon Palmer:I think that is a very good point. What about Lewis? I mean, Hinch, JP and I have discussed it a bit, but your thoughts on what looks like a rejuvenated Lewis?

26:00James Hinchcliffe:Yeah, I mean, you go all the way back to 22 and he never liked that car. He just never liked those regs. Something about the driving style and, you know, we all know how he likes to approach a corner and how that inherently was never going to work in that type of car, all these things. So the hope was always that with this new rule set, it was going to be a bit more of a traditional car and a bit more suited to his driving style. And I think we're seeing that. Add in the fact that Ferrari's done their homework, they've shown up with a strong power unit with a strong chassis, and he's now going toe to toe with Charles Leclerc, who is, you know, this is a guy that everyone has touted for the last five years as world champion material and who systematically trounced him last year.

26:43James Hinchcliffe:Now they're neck and neck. So I think Lewis is back. I think this is everything that all the Ferrari fans were hoping for at the start of 25. And it could be the start of something great. It's great to see the smile on his face. I think that he also had some critical things to say after testing. And then he finishes on the podium and all of a sudden it's the greatest era of Formula One. You know, Lando after testing was like, hey, it's not so bad. And then after the races when McLaren's not doing so well, is like, well, this is a joke. So I do think that the post-race comments and post-session comments are intrinsically related to results.

27:17Never listen to racing drivers. Is that what you're telling me?

27:20James Hinchcliffe:Long story short, don't listen to drivers.

27:22Jolyon Palmer:The only thing I would say about Lewis is, let's rewind it 12 months. He's at Ferrari. He wins the sprint in China. He takes the fight to Charles in the Grand Prix in China. They both get disqualified, but they're similar on pace. they go toe-to-toe in melbourne where they're both struggling for performance and it's obviously the wet race and the chaos but they're with each other and then the the season completely derailed for him so if you take the sample size of two weekends that is the one thing i love seeing happy lewis i love seeing the body language in the car and out the car the happy lewis great in the car you can tell he's happy because the way that he's driving and he's enjoying racing and you know throwing moves when other people would maybe wave a white flag and he's going no i'm going to pass you into turn nine i'm going to be audacious brilliant but i still think there's going to be a run of races when you think of miami when you think of monaco where charles is lightning some of these other other circuits where it's shorter radius corners maybe where we will see if lewis is really back or if these are just a couple of circuits where he's more competitive and charles was saying in china he hates this place he's never been good he's only out qualified his teammate two out of eight qualifiers which includes lewis uh but also includes carlos saints and sebastian vettel so um we'll see that's just just to temper it now mclaren they have done fewer racing laps in 2026 than aston martin who are in a world of pain do you think lando norris is relieved that he got the title wrapped up last year because it's looking unlikely in 26 isn't it i would be i would be very very happy that i am walking around as a formula one world champion it's everything we said last year isn't it those two that hadn't won a title have their golden shot and you know it was always going to be a a really open season this year where you know they can't guarantee future success so i think lando's chuffed to be a champion i still think he's got a positive outlook on life even though McLaren are not where they want to be.

29:27Jolyon Palmer:McLaren still have a confidence that they're going to turn this around. They still believe when you look at where they've been in the last couple of years, I know last year they started really well, but the year before and before that, they have the best development rate of any team in Formula One in the last few years. They will do that again. They think, and I am confident in their ability to do the same. So there's things like not starting in China is a needless throwaway of points. But if they can pick up fifth places, maybe a podium here, they can stay in the hunt, much like Max last year, they're not miles away.

30:03And in a long season,

30:05Jolyon Palmer:maybe they will get closer. You think Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri are still in the running for the World Championship? After two races, I wouldn't rule them out. Obviously, it's going to seem ridiculous because they're carrying a big deficit. it but like Hinch already said Miami will be the first race where we can say yes or no are they capable of turning it around because we've got the whole of April off and if McLaren are gonna add performance trim a little bit of weight off their car as well then we will see the first signs of that in Miami if they've got it in their locker and that will already be in the pipeline for for so many teams it's so interesting isn't it you've got the teams that are gonna be relieved that there's a five-week break in the calendar.

30:47You know, the McLarens, the Aston Martins, the Cadillacs, all these teams that have got work to do. Whereas if you're in a Mercedes, you want to keep the momentum going and they will really not like the break.

30:59James Hinchcliffe:I think you could count on less than one hand who would have liked to keep racing. You've got Mercedes, obviously, want to keep that advantage. You've got Haas who is outperforming where they should be and probably will be once everything settles down a little bit. I put Alpine in that same sort of category. Everybody else is so thankful that they've got a month off to go home, pour through three race weekends worth of data and try to make some improvements. Whereas, yeah, those three squads would have liked to just keep, you know, padding their points haul while they had a little bit of an advantage.

31:34James Hinchcliffe:But look, that's why Miami is going to be so interesting is how much does the competitive order change? How much do these gaps shrink or grow to different parts up and down the grid. It's going to be very fascinating.

31:47Jolyon Palmer:So take 2024 as a case study. Obviously, the original pecking order was closer than it is now. So there's bigger gaps for teams to make up. But Norris won in Miami, and that was his first Grand Prix win. And then he went on the potential challenge for the title. If you took away in that year the Bahrain Grand Prix and the Saudi Grand Prix, that would have massively hurt Red Bull because they had the performance advantage at the start of the year so if you just take away those points McLaren still would have had the same development they would still win in in Miami with an upgraded car and that's that's basically what Mercedes want to bank right now they have the performance there's no guarantee that they'll keep it McLaren have the same power unit in time they will get you to thought the same performance out of it as mercedes then it's just down to a straight fight of downforce and engineering which we know mclaren are good at so and i also think ferrari we shouldn't rule them out because the the way that the two drivers are overwhelmingly positive about these regs look i'm sure they're loving the fight we're all loving watching them fight it was brilliant to see lap after lap it was it was sensational stuff but i feel like they know that there's something in here that if you don't touch the cars we've got performance coming we've got some race wins in us if not a championship fight as well what about red bull do you think they can turn it around in the way that you believe

33:19James Hinchcliffe:mclaren can tough it's such a big deficit right now because i mean to jp's point when last year the competitive order was established quite early mclaren was on top red bull was next but the gap was, it was three tenths a lap. It was four tenths a lap and on a really bad weekend. That was the kind of thing that three tenths was the kind of thing that Max Verstappen could make the difference in qualifying and at a Suzuka or at an Imola could hang on to a race lead. I know he didn't qualify and pull an Imola. He got the lead and hung on to it. But it's a gap where a driver can maybe make the difference on a good day.

33:56James Hinchcliffe:Now it's a second, second and a half, second and a half plus even max can't overcome that right so with a new rule set the development rate is going to be so much higher and so much you know faster let's wait to see what this first round of upgrades from teams really brings i think that's going to give us a little bit of an indication as to who can maybe catch up and when if the first swing at an upgrade is six tenths of a second okay all right maybe there's a fight here but if we're chipping away a tenth or two every you know upgrade cycle and you know it's going to take them two years to catch up and red bulls what is it 12 points from the opening two rounds that's their lowest return since 2015 so it'll be interesting to see isn't it how laurel mechias leads the team out of this you know christian horner they've been here before with christian horner in charge horner loved a bit of jeopardy.

34:54He was a political animal. He was as good at slowing the opposition down as he was creating fast cars himself. I'm fascinated to see how Laurent negotiates the next 12 months, I must say.

35:07Jolyon Palmer:I think the political animal part is interesting for this time with a lot going on in the background with various performance things, regulation talks. If you had a Christian Horner at full tilt trying to slow down Mercedes, you'd think that would carry some weight. and I don't think Lauren is that character. We saw it last year. You know, he's a brilliant technical mind but he's not the political negotiator that Christian was. I also think that he's got so much goodwill in the bank from the work that he's done so far. Red Bull knew that they weren't going to be challenging for a title, I think, this year.

35:44Jolyon Palmer:If they were, it would be even more of a miracle than Max's comeback last year. Just one final thought on Max Hinch. something that Mark Webber said to me last year was he said this year, 2026, is a great time to be Max Verstappen's teammate. Two reasons. One is it's the new rule set. So how's that going to play out? But also if Red Bull are not competitive, we were sort of thinking more about the power unit. You know, is Max going to be up for the fight perhaps as much as if there was a championship at stake? So another good reason to be his teammate. do you agree with Weber on that do you think we're looking at is Verstappen 2026 a bit like where we were with Sebastian Vettel in 2014 remember Sebastian had won the title in 13 we get the new rules set come in 14 Daniel Ricciardo comes in he's a young pup immediately almost finishes P2 in the Australian Grand Prix until he's disqualified he's ahead of Seb I'm not really comparing max with seb but do you sympathize with the view at least that now is a good time to be

36:51James Hinchcliffe:verstappen's teammate i definitely think it's better than than the last five years just in that you know with the new rule set there's there's a lot to learn and it's a bit of a reset obviously he had something figured out in that last generation a car that said you know how many times have we talked about how a driver with max's capabilities and capacity could actually exceed and increase the gap to his teammate if he's able to manage the energy side of things better. So in some ways, yes, I agree with that side of it. I don't necessarily agree that Max is the kind of guy that loses motivation when he's not winning.

37:27James Hinchcliffe:I think he's happy to get out of the car and complain and speak his mind and be honest about how he feels about it. But I still feel like he's the same level of committed that he was when they were turning this team around 12 months ago and mounting that championship battle late in the season. So I, I, I almost wonder if he's more motivated to get the thing better, you know, and, and maybe it's bad when it, when a car's not handling well, that's usually when experience makes it a wider gap between teammates, right? We saw this a lot last year with Mercedes, when the Mercedes car was at a track and in conditions that it was hooked up, Kimi was right with George.

38:07James Hinchcliffe:When you had a weekend where they were really struggling with that car, that gap was a lot bigger. So in a year where it seems like the chassis more than anything is struggling, and Hadjard's done a great job over a single lap so far this year. Like he's been fairly close to Max. But you wonder if it keeps being difficult, does Max's experience start to actually increase that gap?

38:28Jolyon Palmer:I don't know if you can have a world though where Max is not enjoying driving the car. The Red Bull's not that competitive. and he's still the driving force behind the behind the team i know he's a super professional guy i know he lives and breathes motor racing he's still very much a red bull man but the same conversation as is he looking at mercedes already is he looking to race some different category for next year i think this year more than ever in his career the drivers need to be 100 dialed in they are spending more time in the factory than they ever have done if you're max you're driving around eighth you don't enjoy driving are you spending the extra half an hour in the meetings are you going back to Milton Keynes in between to really knuckle down for trying to get back to a sixth place in Japan

39:16James Hinchcliffe:it's it's March now right we're we've got 20 races to go I think that at this stage 100 % if we have this conversation again let's say after the summer break and Max is still fighting for seventh and eighth, maybe then. But at this point, because development is so new, because those gains can be so big, I think he is proud because he's here for the rest of the year. He's got to do this 20 more times. And if he can put an effort now that's going to make it more enjoyable when he can start fighting for podiums and wins, I 100 % think he's committed to doing that. Again, if we're getting to Monza and they're nowhere closer, maybe then the motivation starts falling off.

40:00James Hinchcliffe:and you know the other thing about 2026 is it's a contract year for a lot of drivers you know we keep talking about mercedes but if ferrari keeps putting things together the way they are and the way they have been and can they can be a genuine contender moving forward i'm pretty sure there's contract you know vacancies coming up at uh at ferrari as well so there there could be multiple options for max depending on how it plays out well hinch that's a brilliant segue into the next team I wanted to talk about. They are P4 in the Constructors' World Championship, would you believe it? We're talking about Haas.

40:36And those points have come from Oli Baerman, who is driving out of his skin. Before we get your thoughts on him, I want you guys to listen to this from Ayo Kamatsu, who is my guest on this week's F1 Beyond the Grid podcast. I asked him how far he thinks Oli can go in Formula 1. I haven't seen the limit yet. So I'm really looking forward to this year. You know, for somebody like him, every year he's been doing different formula, right? And compared to last year to this year, yes, it's both Formula 1, but changes are so big. It's like might as well be a different championship, right? But it's not new to him.

41:14You know, it's another new year, another new category. Here we go. So he's got huge, huge potential. Do you worry that you might lose him to Ferrari one day? Yeah, it's no point worrying about it. I'm a strong believer in controlling what you can control. And then Ferrari has been investing in him for many, many years. So we got him for last year and of course this year. So we got to focus on what we can control. And then if we've done a great job with Oli, and then Oli performed so well that Ferrari really wants to take him the following year, we have to be happy that we've done our job, if you like.

41:53So you've got to focus on your job. Are there any deadlines in this year when you need to know from Ferrari what their plans are? Yeah, but that'd be just a discussion between us and Ferrari. But seriously, we all are just focused on getting best performance out of the car and out of body. If that meant we lost him for next year, hopefully not. But that's not something we can control. Now, the full episode with Ayo is out this coming Wednesday. But guys, your thoughts. Hinch, why don't we start with you? The job that Behrman is doing at Haas this year.

42:29James Hinchcliffe:Incredible. I mean, you really can't praise him enough. The second half of last year was super impressive. But, you know, that's a young kid getting used to Formula One, getting used to the car, getting used to all these things, which, you know, there were definitely some rookie mistakes early on, but really showed up in a big way in the second half of the year. you come into a new season with all these changes again does that inexperience hurt you and you've got you know esteban across the garage grand prix winner been in the sport a decade is this the opportunity for him to kind of reassert himself instead it's it's ollie doubling down no one's mastered these cars yet but he has certainly done an incredible job getting on top of it getting up to speed understanding the concepts having the bandwidth to manage things in the grand prix he has scored at every opportunity that has that has been offered to to the 22 drivers so far this season and uh it's it's super impressive and if you look at you know we're two races into his second campaign you look at you know what could happen over the course of this year and then think back to uh oscar piastri and the jump that he made from year two to year three you know i i completely agree with with aos you know assessment that i don't think we've seen anything close to the limit of bearman he's he's in that sweet spot of development where he can just kind of keep growing and keep getting better and uh you know and the ceiling could be quite high for him jp do you see him as hamilton's heir at ferrari yeah he's he's hamilton's heir isn't he i don't know

44:06Jolyon Palmer:when that'll be it'll depend how lewis gets on this year it could be for next year already if if uh do you think he'd be ready next year yeah i think he is driving at such a high level in that car he's getting the most out of almost every weekend now if you actually look back to last year he was in the points five of the last seven races uh that included fourth in mexico when he went toe-to-toe with some of the top guys in the house it included sixth in brazil which he thought was even better than his mexico drive uh in a in a clean fight just just absolutely wiping the midfield and he's carried that in with a whole new set of regs a whole new load of understanding and he's shown he's adaptable i think his raw talent is is through the roof and he's had to work really hard for these first two races as well it's not like they've landed on a plate for him he's had a bad start in melbourne had to charge through the field a little bit and in china the same he had a uh you know agile spin dropped back got a little bit lucky with the with the safety car timing but still had to outrace Pierre Gasly had to come through his teammate and Collar Pinto and then was holding back Max as well for me he's as you do yeah exactly I think he's looking like the real deal at the moment and it's left Ocon on a bit of a sticky wicket hasn't it it's making Ocon not look very good it's making him look really ordinary but you you can't ignore the fact that Ocon is a race winner and he's proven for a decade that he's a really good Formula One driver.

45:34Jolyon Palmer:It either shows that Ocon's losing performance or Behrman is just that good that he's coming in and he's he is making him look really really ordinary every week. Guys quickly the midfield fight at Suzuka. Let's start with racing balls because I mean Liam Lawson it's a year since he was demoted from Red Bull after just two races and hasn't he bounced back not least at China last weekend when he came home P7.

46:03James Hinchcliffe:Yeah, you'd almost look at it and think that he might be quite pleased with where he's at a year down the road. You know, same powertrain, but they seem to be doing a really good job with it. We talked so much over the last regulation set about how racing bulls had this, or whatever it was called on the given year, had built this car. The philosophy behind the car was kind of forgiving. It was very good for cars to, or for drivers, sorry, to jump into and get up to speed quickly and be competitive for the level of performance the car had fairly quickly. And it seems like they've managed to keep that sort of DNA, um, in the new car, you know, both drivers have done a great job.

46:41James Hinchcliffe:Lindblad scoring, you know, his first points in his first race, uh, pretty impressive there as well. So Lawson's driving in China was, was fantastic and they're, they're doing a good job. And it's, it's amazing how close that midfield battle is. You see some of these massive gaps up front you know three tenths between the mercedes and then six tenths back to ferrari mclaren whatever but it it's a tenth or two between your your haases your alpines your racing bulls your red bulls i mean it's it's a really good midfield fight right now jp how much is lawson benefiting from the absence of helmet marco this year i mean i think all of them will

47:16Jolyon Palmer:be maybe minus max but uh you know i think he was a big presence that could be really hard on on young drivers coming through to the benefit of those that could thrive and become a world champion but liam obviously saw the brunt of that last year but it did remind me as well when you when you say that the resilience that he's got and i think you have to say he's a he's a tough guy liam we've seen it in his wheel-to-wheel battles he's not afraid to flip the bird to whoever whoever does him wrong in a grand prix yeah uh and also it took him a while to get up to speed with racing bulls last year as well it wasn't an instantaneous right here we go but he got there so he had some some good drives and the same thing in in melbourne it would have been really easy for for him to see oh no lib blood's here he's getting all the all the credit from from australia but he drove really well in china getting points in the in the sprint and the grand prix and it just will settle him down for the year as well hench what about williams it's been a really tough start for them hasn't it the car is is massively overweight it's not easy to drive just your thoughts on the job that car loss in particular did uh last time out in china to p9 i mean incredible because

48:27James Hinchcliffe:as you say there's been so much working against that team um since the start of the new year really and you look at you know what happened melbourne how that weekend transpired for them the fact that you went into a sprint race right after that so you're having even less time to to figure things out that was one of those just sort of gritty drives that you know was was nicely rewarded does not take away from the fact that they are i mean outside of aston on the back foot worse than anyone and i think one of the biggest shocks coming into the season right just how early they dedicated and pivoted to the 26 program and to be this far behind you know already was a huge shock i think given that though you know coming home with uh with a couple points in the bag is a nice treat.

49:13James Hinchcliffe:That said, you had a lot of cars that didn't finish, a lot of cars that didn't start that race that would have been up in that mix as well. So I think that it's a smart enough group to know that I don't want to say they didn't earn it on merit. You got to start the race to be in it, right? But as soon as some of those issues are taken care of in the competitive order, that's not where they are. And I think they're acutely aware of that. That we've just discussed that the mental resilience of Liam Lawson. Hinch, what do you think Carlos Sainz is going through mentally at the minute? You know, he had so many options at the end of 2024.

49:51He chose Williams because he believed in the 26 project. That is why he signed for Williams. How tough a moment. Do you think this is the toughest moment of Carlos Sainz's career?

50:02James Hinchcliffe:I think it's a defining moment in a lot of ways because at this point, he only Well, he's got two options, right? He's got wallow in self-pity and play the woulda, coulda, shoulda game. Or it's the buckle down and I'm going to prove that I made the right call. Because teams can turn around and this was never a short-term program for him. I don't think even with all the faith that everybody had in the vision and the future and the plan that James Vowles had at Williams that he'd be fighting for a championship in 2026. I don't think that was ever the goal. And so more than anything now, I think he's got to dig in, buckle down and help this team get to where he believes that they could be and maximize the potential that he saw in them when he signed on in the first place.

50:52Right. A year ago, JP, what do you think Williams' objectives were for 2026? Well, even less than a year ago, right? After they'd got those couple of podiums. I mean, you say that they weren't going to challenge for the championship, but I think race wins would have been at the back of their mind for 26. Do you agree?

51:10Jolyon Palmer:They had to be basically getting towards the front group, didn't they? From where they were last year, where they could get a podium on a good day, hold off championship-winning cars, that the only way if you're putting that much resource into a new car i think you know there's a level of knowing that they still didn't have the facilities of some of the the big the big teams but that the aim had to be progress which is to be in the fight with mclaren now with red bull now and try and fight for some for some podiums again or even more and they put so much more resource than even the top teams did into this car.

51:48Jolyon Palmer:They sacrificed so much last year. So that's why they're, for me, the biggest disappointments because they've got the tools. It's not like Aston Martin, who have been dealt a duff hand, I think, or maybe manufactured their own duff hand. But Williams have the tools with the Mercedes power unit, with the time to develop a car, and they've under-delivered. But to your point on Carlos and how much is he going to be regretting it, I think yes, right now. But it might well not matter because when you look at the other teams that he could have gone to so let's say Alpine or Audi uh none of them are going to be hitting podiums in this season apart from a chaos race the the gap between the midfield and the front is too big if Carlos drives like he did in China and Williams can't progress to be on a par with those teams and back into the midfield I'll be amazed if there's not a performance clause in his contract that says he can leave with this new set of regs in mind i think he's a clever guy i think he'll knuckle down i think he's a top driver and with all this talk about ferrari contracts various other contracts driver movements at the end of the year he's got to be in contention again and he could walk into maybe alpine maybe audi and it might not make a massive difference his i think his stock has has actually risen a lot even since the ferrari days when you see him getting podiums for williams and dragging a ninth place out of it it was a sensational drive all right final thoughts podium predictions guys give me a

53:14James Hinchcliffe:three two one who wants to go first go on hench yeah um well look like i said i i think it's still i think it's still a mercedes battle so um i do see george winning the race um i'm i'm gonna say because again it's a different kind of track in terms of energy management and and all the rest of it so i think their advantage holds i think it's a mercedes one two again i think kimmy second and then um yeah i gotta be honest i think i think lewis is i really want to see lewis continue the streak i don't want it to be this this two race you know data set that we had last year i want to see the progress continue so let's say yeah george kimmy lewis and lewis loves suzuka doesn't he he first after FP1 go and have a word with him and see what he thinks about Suzuka he whacks his lyrical about it JP for you

54:12Jolyon Palmer:I will go George Kimi and then I'll go Charles I will be fascinated to see more than anything this week how the Ferraris race will they have the shackles off to race each other or will they be a little bit more disciplined to mount a lasting challenge against the Mercedes it'll depend how the start goes and how their performance goes through the weekend and I also think Charles was was loved the fight was happy to be fourth last time out i don't know if he'll be so happy to finish fourth if lewis is third again and they're on the receiving end so i'll say charles manages to bounce back what do you reckon tc well we're all in agreement it's it's mercedes versus ferrari again not a big enough gap to make any difference to the pecking order at the front i think it's george kimmy lewis there you go can't wait for us all to be wrong in a week's time Guys, thank you both very much for your time.

55:03It's always great to chat. And in selected countries, you at home can watch all the action at Suzuka on F1 TV. In the US, you can watch on Apple TV. And you can also keep across the latest news at F1.com, the official F1 app, and at F1 on social media. And don't forget to check out F1 Beyond the Grid with Ayo Komatsu on Wednesday, as we quoted him earlier. and the latest episode of F1 Explains is all about the F1 paddock featuring David Coulthard. That's just below this show on the F1 Nation feed. Thank you very much for listening and we will be back next Monday with our review of the Japanese Grand Prix.

55:41Will it be George from Kimi from Lewis? F1 Nation is produced by Formula One and Audioboom Studios.

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