‘Gloves off’ in McLaren title fight? Ferrari at the front? Kimi’s point to prove – 2025 Azerbaijan GP Preview

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26:50McLaren's mission to keep the title fight fair between their drivers could, as you were saying earlier, JP, be complicated by an outside influence. Let's talk about Max Verstappen, first of all. Prior to the summer break, he said he didn't think he could win another race this year. He seems to have got his mojo back. He has won again. How seriously do you think he can challenge this weekend?

27:16Jolyon Palmer:I expect him to be right there again. I think the key thing is that the Red Bull is competitive in the low downforce configuration. They obviously found something in Monza. They found a good balance to go with the trimmed out wing. Baku, they'll be trimming out that wing again to a similar level, maybe not quite as low downforce as Monza, but think back to Silverstone. Max was on pole with the low downforce Red Bull. It didn't help him when it rained on Sunday, but he was quick. Jeddah, he was on pole in the lower downforce Red Bull. So any time where you start taking the downforce off, even the sparse sprint, he didn't take pole, but he won the sprint because he likes that car in that configuration.

27:59Jolyon Palmer:He can hustle it around. He doesn't mind the floaty feeling. He gains on the straights and doesn't lose so much in the corners, basically. is not one of his best circuits historically, but I still think with the way he's going and the way that Red Bull are, he'll be a threat. I mean, he was outqualified by Checo Perez last year for the first time in 2024. Yeah. So it would suggest it's not one of his best circuits. Do you worry about the bumps in Baku? That's something that's held that car back historically? I think they've got a much better handle on the bumps now, though, as well. So, I mean, you need to be able to hop over curbs as much as the bumps as well.

28:43Jolyon Palmer:There are some big braking zones. But, yeah, I don't think in Baku it's actually so bad now. It's been smoothed out quite a lot. It's not horrendously bumpy like a Monaco or a Singapore. It's, yeah, curb riding certainly plays its part, but it also does in Monza, to be honest, as well, where the car was good hopping over the kerbs at low speed. And that's what they'll be doing in Baku. So this was also Perez's best track by far, I'd say, Baku. He was always very, very fast. It was one of his good wins as well in the past. So maybe we'll give Checo that. Checo, short radius corners. That's what everyone said to me.

29:22Brilliant at short radius corners. What about Max's approach? Can we just discuss that? since the management change um the team principal change from horner christian horner to laurent mechies um they've slightly changed how they go about their race weekends they're not relying blindly on what the simulator says on friday night they say that they're now letting max lead the charge from the racetrack rather than the sim um how significant a change do you think that

29:56Jolyon Palmer:is i think putting less emphasis on the sim is is a big change because you know that is all about how you turn up to a race put the car on the ground and we've how many times have we seen them be really struggling on a friday and then find something on saturday in the past so if they're starting to put less emphasis on that and trust their driver then it says more about what needs to improve back at milton keen's probably for red bull and that they are going to trust Max and it will probably make a difference to how they run through the weekend but even in Zandvoort I remember Max was was struggling a lot on Friday still managed to get it into uh into good position on Saturday he was in the in the top three finished on the podium finished second didn't he when uh when Lando was out so it didn't massively change change their world but you know Max is is a obviously a top line driver he's very uh forthright in his opinions and he knows what he wants from the car so red bull are probably well advised to to go with that and you know if they have a weakness in the sim which they seem to have had for a little bit of time then that's something that they'll work on i haven't noticed a massive change i know that's that's something that's been going on behind the scenes but in terms of the bullish approach from max on track we saw it 100 once again in Monza, going through the first chicane, trying everything to hold back Lando at the start.

31:25Jolyon Palmer:He then gave up the position, but then the move was really well executed when he then did pass Lando again. I'm still seeing that ruthlessness from him on track. You know, I still think the team hasn't done a massive change in direction in the short term. What do you think from what you've seen? I think I agree with you. Do you see that Max has been to the Nürburgring? i have seen it since monza he's been there's no such thing as a weekend off of that guy is there he i've never met anyone who loves driving quite as much as max verstappen he was uh getting a license so that he can do a gt3 race uh later in the month around the nord schleifer but you know weekend off head up you know into the mountains he's not gonna leg to stand on when the formula one calendar gets bigger and bigger has he because he goes racing as when he when he's not racing he races in the night when he's racing in the day he'll jump on the sim sometimes he lives for racing it's yeah something else i don't i wouldn't have been doing that when i was driving fun if it's a generational thing jp because um gabriel bortoletto was on on beyond the grid recently and saying you know on the sunday night of a grand prix he was talking specifically about zanvort on the sunday night he goes home having raced a grand prix and then we'll sit on the sim and do however many laps on the sim of zanville just sort of honing the car learning extra information that he gathered over the weekend fair play these guys don't stop fair play i i can't keep up with that that's uh it's a new generation thing isn't it as you say sim era sim racing all of it they've grown up with and it's it's it's a hobby for them as much as you know work as well i when i when i finished a race the idea if someone had said right go and jump on the sim on a sunday i had to would normally go in on like a tuesday or wednesday and that would be one of the less glamorous bits of my job but to hop on on a sunday night you're having a laugh extraordinary and i and i agree with you i think max will go well uh this weekend i i do sense that he's stepped up a little bit internally.

33:34It may be an unconscious thing, but I think he's really trying to welcome Laurel Macchies with open arms. And I think, I noticed he was at Milton Keynes on his way to the Nürburgring last week. Lots of selfies with the team. I feel that he's got a more prominent role, leadership role within the team post-Horner, perhaps.

33:58Jolyon Palmer:He probably is in power. than he had before. Obviously, he's been now at the team for a long time. Laurent's stepped over to Red Bull. And Max, as the champion driver, I think you look at some of the great champions of the past, they do have an important role to play. I mean, Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes, but Toto Wolff was there the whole time. Sebastian Vettel, when he was at Red Bull, and then even at Ferrari, he wasn't a champion with them. But you could feel that he had that champion quality of knowing where the team should go and that imposing nature. And now Max has seen the end of Christian Horner's tenure.

34:36Jolyon Palmer:In comes Laurent Mecchier's. And Laurent's a more technical-minded boss as well. So, you know, it probably feels like this is his time to put extra effort into making sure that the next era is good. Let's talk about Ferrari now. Charles Leclerc, you said earlier, is a Baku specialist. And my goodness, he is. pole position for the last four years uh amazing extraordinary record do you think he's going to have the car underneath him to get the job done on sunday i think you i think you can yeah i still think that ferrari i i feel like they've underperformed a little bit recently for their car i i think in monza in in the end they weren't that far away there i know charles struggled in the early part of the race and was overtaken by by oscar having had the dice with him at the start but they were super low downforce then and there's probably a better compromise to be to be had and baku they'll probably find it because it's a slightly different track where you need a bit more um a bit more cornering uh but there's certain races where i think they've been riding contention and not quite landed it whether it's driver mistakes whether it's team mistakes and because I think Charles is such a Baku specialist he will be in pole contention this is the sort of circuit where he just delivers the laps and there's been a yeah a few Monza I thought probably they had a little bit more in the locker but didn't and didn't find it on that final run he was second after the first run of Q3 and then dropped back race pace it's not as good as quality pace but if he starts at the front I think I'm still going with it I'm still going Ferrari to win a race and I'm going to keep saying it until they do I also think Singapore by the way will be their chance I think this this run of three races Monza's been in Garn missed opportunity Baku brilliant opportunity more for Shell because of his his Baku specialist nature but then Singapore as well for both of their drivers really good form and the car will be good so this is their their run all right what about mercedes they're 20 points back on ferrari uh in the constructors championship a definite change in tone after the monza grand prix from toto wolf with regards kimmy antonelli uh he talked of him having an underwhelming weekend at monza and that in baku he has to have a clean weekend be interesting to see how 19 year old kimmy will deal with that What did you think of that remark from Toto?

37:13Jolyon Palmer:Because he's been very much armed around him until that moment, hasn't he? I was quite taken aback. I was surprised, actually, because his every comment with regards Kimi Antonelli this year has been this is a building year all about getting experience. We're going to learn from our mistakes. So I was I think they want to announce their driver lineup for 2026 and they're trying to they're trying to wait for the right moment. And they don't want to do it after a run of bad races, which he's had. They've had enough of the carrot and now they're just a little wave of the stick now and see if he can get a good one on the board.

37:46Jolyon Palmer:and confirmed. I also personally thought he didn't have such a terrible weekend in Monza. Looking at qualifying pace, which is the first benchmark of how just naturally fast a driver is, he was half a tenth off George. He was closer to George Russell than Lewis was the year before. He went off in Friday practice in FP2 early on, so he did that making up for lost time. Now, that in itself is its own concern because he did the same in Zandvoort so that's partly one of Toto's comments is he has to have a clean weekend and if he'd have done three free practices in Zandvoort and in Monza who knows maybe he'd have out qualified George at the end but in terms of his pace it was his best showing since Miami so that was really encouraging he got a lousy start fell down into the mid-pack 10th, 11th and came back, you know, not massively with aplomb.

38:47Jolyon Palmer:And so that's where the gap opened up between him and George Russell. But I think George is driving at such a high level. Kimi's still 19. I think the fact that his pace was much more on a pie, qualified sixth, if he gets a better start, I think he's probably going to finish there as well. I thought it was better, but that's why I was also surprised that that was the moment where Toto sort of came out a little bit more putting the pressure on. And Baku's not the sort of track you want to go to with a bit of pressure on you. It's a much more difficult racetrack, isn't it? I mean, Monza actually is quite a simple racetrack in a Formula One car, isn't it?

39:23Jolyon Palmer:Yeah, I think it's... Layout-wise? Yeah, I think it's the simplest. You basically have six corners to deal with. Low downforce makes it slightly harder, but a couple of chicanes, a couple of Lesmos, Ascari and Parabolica, and you're booming around to the end of the lap. Baku is complex because you've got those long straights, big braking zones similar to Monza. But then the middle sector, if you make a mistake, like he's had in Zandvoort or Monza, that will be tearing off two corners of the car in Baku. Even worse in Singapore next time out as well. And then I actually, as a driver, I hated the run out of the final corner because I feel like it's just that is just down to please let me come around turn 16 the final proper corner and find a car to get a slipstream because it could be half a second on the run to the to the line but if there's no one there you can just lose all that time and someone can basically get a get a really lucky run to the flag but it's still something that's there for the drivers corner exits are going to be key one thing I have been surprised about with Kimi is his qualifying pace.

40:30I know you say, yes, he was closer to George in Monza, but 15-1 is the head-to-head between those two drivers. And drivers can get more consistent, but the raw pace is normally there from the outset. So I was expecting Kimi to put it over George in qualifying more than he has. That's almost my biggest concern with Kimi, actually, is that I thought he would quite simply be faster on a Saturday.

41:01Jolyon Palmer:But I think that's why I was more encouraged by Monza because he was quicker. And even if he'd put in a better weekend, but he was two tenths away from George still. I'd rather he was half a tenth away from George or pretty much matching George and then making some mistakes here or there because the pace is the hardest thing to find. So a couple of things. he has statistically been getting further away from George as the season's gone on so if you take the first five races then the next five and then the next five up until Monza that gap has been widening which is obviously not what you'd expect from a 18 year old rookie you'd think that he'd be working it out and getting closer still think George is driving at a really high level but Kimi has lost his way a little bit and he's lost the confidence he's no longer driving purely on instinct and when he does he's then finding himself in the gravel as well so he's sort of I feel like he's missing some laps some reps some rhythm in his driving and then he's feeling the pressure as well which isn't helping and it also makes me think why were we necessarily thinking an 18 year old rookie was going to come in and do better than he's doing because of the hype two words Max Verstappen.

42:21Max Verstappen has distorted what we expect of teenagers now.

42:26Jolyon Palmer:Okay Max Verstappen came in alongside rookie Carlos Sainz. If you put Kimi in alongside rookie Isaac Hadjar it would be a lot closer than you think. We'd be thinking wow the 18 year old has got some amazing results he's made some bloopers it wouldn't be as drastic. If you put Max in in 2015 alongside peak Sebastian Vettel it's probably not going to go that well for Max there might be the odd glimpse of of some highs but to drive at the level that a George Russell's doing right now he's he's driving a champion season in not the best car the consistency of his performance is incredible and I feel like if you gave him a McLaren right now he's he's on a par in terms of his driving standard with Lando and Oscar, at least.

43:16Jolyon Palmer:Same with Max. And that's the benchmark that we're giving Kimi. And I know he was a sensation in karting. And he was very good in Formula Renault, Formula European Regional. But he's skipped F3. He's done one year of solid F2, but nothing really more. The odd spectacular drive, but the odd error as well. And he's in Formula 1. And I still think he's talented. I still think he's good. But I think he needs to just get back to solid weekends and think maybe I just need to be a solid Formula One driver first. Back to school starts now. Get long-lasting battery life on the Dell XPS laptop powered by Series 3 Intel Core so you can work from anywhere.

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46:17Well, JP, that's all the big hitters for Baku. Can we look at the bottom end of the championship order now? Because it makes interesting reading. The bottom three in the Drivers' Championship at the minute are Carlos Sainz, 18th. Carlos Sainz. Yuki Tsunoda, 19th in a Red Bull. And Franco Colopinto, 20th. Okay, he missed the first six races of the season. Are you surprised that it's those three? If I'd said to you before the start of the season, were going to be going with eight races to go and Carlos Sainz is going to be 18th. What would you have made of that?

46:56Jolyon Palmer:If you'd told me that, I'd have said Williams are having a horrible season. But they're not, are they? They're actually having a really good season for them. So it says a lot about Alex Albin's ability and results at the moment. I don't think 18th is a fair representation of where Carlos has been in terms of his performance. but you know the the facts are the facts and he hasn't got the points on the board and he's I feel like he's just getting involved in too many incidents as well and I know he just had his penalty overturned from Zahnvort which I think was the right decision but the fact is he still had the collision and even if this is no longer his fault he still lost points on the day they were fighting for seventh him and Liam Lawson he was hanging it halfway around the outside of Liam maybe you could say it's Lawson's fault maybe you could say it's a racing incident it doesn't even matter that's that's points lost for him and the same in in Monza he went around the outside of Oli Behrman uh they had the collision Behrman kept his nose in on the apex the stewards gave Behrman the the penalty personally I think that's harsh I still think that Haas could even appeal that and get the two points overturned for him but it doesn't matter it's another points chance gone for Sainz so whether or not he's in the right or he's in the wrong and he's not been very happy about it he's having too many of these collisions in Bahrain it was the same he was having a collision with with Antonelli there are so many races this year where he's been in that midfield bottom end of the points fight and just had some racing incidents and probably he needs to start looking a little bit more at himself he's been unlucky at times as well with with safety cars and strategies and DNFs but I think he's he's not maximized the car I think what's surprised me about those two Williams drivers is that I was expecting Carlos's experience to really show in a race and I was expecting him to maybe be the better racing driver but that's absolutely not been the case as you say it's partly getting involved in other people's accidents or whatever and just you know Albon has driven really really well maximized most opportunities you have to say It goes to show how you put a season together.

49:13Jolyon Palmer:So Albon's on 70 points. Sainz is on 16 points. In qualifying, there's not that much in it between them. 8-8, they're level. Yeah. And in terms of the average pace as well, they're really similar. So there's not much to separate them in terms of one lap performance. I agree. I think Sainz's success in his career has been about putting race weekends together. I remember particularly his McLaren days when he was teammates with Lando and again the two of them were really evenly matched in qualifying but Carlos would get good starts he'd make good overtakes be really clean and crisp get good results where Lando would maybe be you know he'd have some some good highs as well but occasionally he was a rookie at the time and he'd make a bad start he'd drop back into traffic he'd then fight through and Carlos was just putting it together that's why he went to Ferrari and he did a really great job at Ferrari as well bearing in mind Charles was his teammate and we respect Charles as one of the best drivers in the field but this year it's not gone right for him I think maybe there's a maybe it's difficult when you've gone from fighting right at the front to fighting in the midfield because when you're a Ferrari driver and you're fighting with a Red Bull a McLaren or a Mercedes there's a little bit more to lose for a podium fight sometimes you're sometimes fighting with drivers that are in championship battles championship contention they don't take the risk that Liam Lawson will in the midfield and Ollie Behrman in in Monza he's also down there in the championship one point to him is huge so he will chuck a nose in at the the second chicane whereas possibly at the front of the field drivers a little bit more circumspect the difference between a fourth and a fifth isn't massive to them.

50:57Jolyon Palmer:So I wonder if that changes the racing aspect for Carlos and he needs to recalibrate. At the same time, Alex has been doing amazing coming through the field. He is piecing it together as Carlos has in the past. What about Yuki Tsunoda then? The hardest job in Formula 1 being Max Verstappen's teammate, but he's only scored once since Imola. I was expecting a little bit more of Yuki in the same way that I was Carlos. Yeah, honestly, you can't be expecting less from Yuki. If you'd have told me him at the start of the year that Yuki's 19th in the championship, I'd have thought, first of all, there's no way he's driving a Red Bull for most of this.

51:40Jolyon Palmer:Because, you know, sometimes Checo had a hard time, but he's still got some results in the Red Bull. But this year, the performance of the second Red Bull has completely fallen off the cliff entirely. um the the result that he did get in zanvo he got ninth as isaac hadjar got a podium for racing bulls so it says a huge amount about how difficult the second red bull seat is i think we've seen a similar spiral of of confidence as we saw with checo last year as well struggling so you try different things you can't find your your feet you can't find your balance and you have to run the car slightly differently to max who's just got an incredible feel for grip and balance that the second driver doesn't quite have the skill set to do um so you end up having a two-car team in red bull and yeah yuki he's seemed a little bit little bit better since laurent's taken over at red bull but even his race in in monza it was very underwhelming in terms of he had he didn't look like he had any confidence.

52:51Jolyon Palmer:Breaking early, not getting into battles, not defending position in the edge of the top 10 and eventually having contact with Liam Lawson. Look, last one, Franco Colopinto. Okay, I said a minute ago, you know, he missed those opening six races. It feels that he's going better since the summer break. This weekend in Baku, he's returning to the scene of his first points in Formula One last year when he finished eighth from a Q3 start. Do you think he's making progress? Do you think he deserves that second seat next year at Alpine? Monza was much better for him and you're right going back to circuits that he's at least done last year I think he can arrive just feeling that little bit more comfortable.

53:38Jolyon Palmer:It's not completely alien to him. remember he didn't do pre-season testing so being parachuted in partway through the season is never that nice is what he did a much better job of at Williams than he has done at Alpine um it will be interesting to see if he does better in Baku and Singapore because he actually did a really good job for Williams last year and he did he did do better in Monza having driven his debut last year so coming back helped him there I don't I don't think he's done enough to stay on the grid as it is but then you wonder who's who's definitely going to come in to replace him I think Alpine would love him to find some more performance to keep him he's getting closer to Pierre and Pierre is a good benchmark obviously had his new contract in Monza but there's a lot of hungry talent coming through in F2 that would love a chance and I think Franco Colapinto's seat has got to be the most vulnerable what do you reckon it's boring for a podcast but i agree it's better if we disagree right but uh as things stand he's not doing enough but i have seen little flickers of hope since the summer break i thought his race in zanvort was very good just missed out on the points as you say it was better in monza he's going to go to baku with confidence i'm sure at some subliminal level he's going there thinking hang on i scored points here last year i go well at this race track So I think as long as he doesn't put it in the wall in FP1 through overconfidence, I think it could be a good weekend for him.

55:07And then let's see where we go. Flavio Briatore has said that they want to make a decision about next year's driver lineup before the end of the season in November. So the next few races are crucial for Colopinto.

55:21Jolyon Palmer:Yeah, I think these two, he has to get some points on the board. He has to out-qualify Gasly. Otherwise, he's looking over his shoulder. Yeah, and he is the only driver on the grid who has yet to score this year. Well, JP, it's been brilliant to chat. Quick constructors permutations. As I said earlier, McLaren will be constructors champions for the 10th time if they leave Baku 346 points ahead of the team in P2. They're currently 337 points ahead of Ferrari. Those are insane numbers, aren't they? Oh, they're jeopardy. Imagine if they don't do it and it rolls on another week. Then the scores that they have this year is just phenomenal how they've managed to put this together.

56:11Jolyon Palmer:They only just won the constructors last year. And then this year they could outscore Red Bull's 2023 total, which is bonkers. So what about the podium in Baku, JP? Give us your one, two, three. I'm going to stick to my guns. Charles Leclerc wins the race. He takes pole. He hangs on, learns from last year. And so he wins. Then it's going to be, it's got to be a McLaren fighting in the whole way. Let's go with Oscar to do it. He did a great job in Baku last year. And max for P3. I don't think McLaren are going to have it their own way. So I'm going to go one Ferrari, two McLaren, three Red Bull.

56:56I know Oscar was brilliant last year in Baku, and that overtake on Charles Leclerc was one of the best, and then he had Leclerc on his gearbox for the rest of the race. All of that was sublime. But I thought Lando Norris had a very good race from P15 on the grid as well. Let's not overlook that.

57:14Jolyon Palmer:It was a spectacular recovery, wasn't it? Kept him in the hunt. Well, I'm going to go for a Verstappen win. and then the two McLarens in which order I can't I just depends who has the slowest stop boom you said it look any outliers any surprises do you think Hadjar could go and lay a surprise or I think Williams will go well again so having spoken about Sainz being 18th in the championship he'll have a great chance to score and Albon as well their lower downforce package is is pretty good so maybe in a chaotic race this is a chance for williams if they can sort out qualifying to get right in amongst the the ferraris and the mercedes you know they would have done that in monza had they not qualified so badly alban's race pace was the same as hamilton similar to russell maybe they'll prove it this time around albon for the podium perhaps williams have got form they've had podiums in the past think of lance stroll lance stroll 2017 absolutely

58:25JP great to chat to you thank you very much for your time one more thing before I go to people listening this week's F1 Beyond the Grid is with Canelac team principal Graham Loud and that's out on Wednesday and he gave great insight into the team's preparations ahead of its first race in just six months time Melbourne 2026 is only six months away and as for F1 Nation we will of course be back next week with our review of the race in Baku please follow or subscribe so you don't miss that but for now thanks very much for listening F1 Nation is produced by Formula One and Audioboom Studios

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