Kimi’s transformation + redemption for Oscar in Baku? – Azerbaijan GP Preview

19:13Jolyon Palmer:He's not exactly a super emotional driver that can be all over the place. Outwardly, you're right. but maybe the water runs deep in Oscar and we just don't get to see it. Yeah, but I mean, still my point stands, TC, where he's had a half year where he's looked like a champion and he's had three years where he looks like he does now. So what's the real Oscar? Is it what we saw for the first half of last year or is it what we've seen for the other, what is it, six half years, five half years? What about Ferrari's chances this weekend in Baku? Let's start, we can't call him their lead driver because they've got two number ones.

19:52But let's start by talking about the guy who's in front in the championship points, Lewis Hamilton. Very ignominious weekend in Madrid, I felt, of course, retired with that break issue. But the result is that he's now more than 100 points behind Kimi Antonelli, having only five races ago been just 32 points behind Antonelli. A Ferrari out of it. Is Lewis Hamilton out of the championship fight? Yes, certainly.

20:21James Hinchcliffe:They'll have flashes. You know, they'll have races. I'd love to see them win, you know, another Grand Prix or two before the end of the year. But you're talking about over three Grand Prix's worth of points behind. Well, I mean, four for Lewis. I mean, this is three just to his closest competitor. So, yeah, it's done. It's over. It's about working on 27. They don't have to worry about the pressure of keeping a championship fight alive. They can go to each race weekend, maybe be a little bit more experimentative with setups, with with, you know, developments to bring into the track in absence of testing.

20:55James Hinchcliffe:Right. If this was if this was 15 years ago, 20 years ago, and you had this new right set and drivers were struggling to come up with, you know, how to drive them, these things and teams are trying to catch the one team that figured it out. you'd be pounding around testing every week in between every Grand Prix and working on it. You don't have that freedom now. Simulators can only do so much. And your only time in the race car is when it matters on race weekends, which is a tough thing to use as a time to be experimentative and to really take extra risks, whether it's with driving, with setup changes, whatever.

21:30James Hinchcliffe:When you are out of the championship fight as a Ferrari, then you can kind of, you can kind of resign yourself to almost looking at these race weekends as test weekends. I think there's still opportunity. It's not to say you're not trying, right? If anything, you're trying harder, just in a different way. You're willing to take bigger risks. You're willing to make bigger sacrifices. If it doesn't work out and you come home seventh, fine. You chalk it up to experience and something's learned, right? If anything, learning what not to do is as valuable as learning, you know, what to do and what direction to go.

21:59James Hinchcliffe:and so I think for a lot of these teams a lot of these drivers that's the phase of the season we're in now just with where you know Antonelli is and I very much count you know Lewis and Ferrari in that camp so it's just uh it's technical homework for next year do you think there is there anything on an organizational area that you think they need to work on I'm gonna I'm leading I suppose towards rules of engagement and what you do about having two number one drivers I mean yeah

22:29Jolyon Palmer:Yeah, there's something they'll look at, of course. I think that's come up so much in the last race or two, hasn't it? But I was looking through it and they just haven't had the pace. So you say from Silverstone and we were talking about, do they try and put team orders in? Do they throw everything behind Hamilton? And that conversation was all because they didn't have the pace. So then you have to try and work yourself an opportunity because if you just play it out normally, you're not going to win. They have played it out normally. To be honest, they've not had a chance to really implement team orders to any great extent either.

23:04Jolyon Palmer:But they just don't have the pace. So I was looking through it and I think if Hamilton had had five clean weekends, pretty well optimizing. I think he could have had 39 more points. So he'd be 62 off Antonelli. And I still think even from that far back, it's too tall an order to come back on a guy that's absolutely flying. He's won three of the last five races. So why has Fred Vasseur not come out with that argument? Why has he just not said, look, we don't have the pace to implement team orders? That's a problem for Toto when he's dominating in 2016 with two very level drivers. Yeah, but it's different if you're winning, then you can talk about team orders.

23:46Jolyon Palmer:You can talk about throwing away a championship. I think for Fred, he's trying to keep his two drivers happy. So he's got Lewis, you can't, he's going to alienate Charles if he gets Charles to back Lewis. If he says, if he goes the other way, then Lewis is going to be miffed because he's got a better chance of being champion. So it is a tricky spot that Fred's in. And I don't, there's not been obvious points. I mean, they could have, when Lewis had the penalty in Budapest, got Charles to back off and not get within five seconds to maximize Lewis's score. It's two points difference. you know in Zanvoort maybe they could have swapped places a little bit quicker at most Lewis might have got to third and it might have been three points difference but they are so far adrift really in the grand scheme they've not come close to a Grand Prix win since Charlotte Silverstone even that was lucky with Antonelli not finishing they just don't have the pace to fight and I think everyone's talking like we want to see the fight because we want to see Ferrari back in title running mix.

24:45Jolyon Palmer:They've got a great lineup. Lewis has shown so much better this year. The reality is the car actually is pretty good, but the power unit, it doesn't leave them in a position to fight. So a race like this one in Baku, it's difficult to see how they can fight for a win because they're fighting with one hand tied behind their back. And at that point, it doesn't really matter if you do team orders or not. Do you think Lewis has exceeded their expectations? Do you think when they signed Lewis, three years ago now almost do you think they were expecting him to come in and put in similar performances that he was at mercedes under different regulations admittedly and that they thought charlotte claire was going to dominate him in a way that he did last year do you think lewis has perhaps created a problem for them this year that they weren't expecting i think they're

25:35James Hinchcliffe:happy to have the problem tc i don't think ferrari would sign somebody you know that they were anticipating to be slower and subservient to another driver, to Charles, you know, to the Ferrari golden boy, quote unquote. I think everybody knows exactly what Lewis is capable of, and Fred has seen it from the beginning. So no, I think they were more surprised last year at the lack of issue they had with this because Lewis wasn't up to the same pace as Charles, and that this year is really kind of more what they were expecting to have. And frankly, it's what they want when you have two drivers that can push each other like this you're going to help make the team better yes at some point it might bring up some difficult conversations and and some difficult decisions but that's a it's a privileged position to be in and i think it's one that they hope if they get the car right next year that we'll be having similar conversations next year but talking about you know the championship implications of who should they back what is it like when you get that radio call guys i'm sure it's happened to you hasn't it when you get that call saying can you move over let let your teammate through because we think he's faster on this set of tires or whatever it is totally sucks it is it does it does you team first jp team first right yeah and never has no has no no racing driver ever in the history of I wish we had Montoya here to answer this question.

27:01Jolyon Palmer:Yeah. No, it's the worst thing because no driver is thinking team first. They will say it afterwards and they will be magnanimous about it afterwards, ticking the boxes. But the drivers are thinking it's me first and it's my teammate second, please. So as and when you get the call, you know it's for the greater good, but it is just a real, it's a bit of a killer. But you have to do it, I think. Well, certainly in my experience, I wasn't fighting for a title. So unless there's something that you can cling on to and then argue afterwards. But you say you have to do it. Why? Because it's in the contract?

27:36Or you just don't want to have any ill feeling in the debrief afterwards? I mean, why do you have to do it?

27:43Jolyon Palmer:Because I don't think anyone will have it in the contract. But you just, how else? You've got to be signed by the team still. No one I don't think is indispensable in the team, although very, very few drivers are. Maybe there's one or two in Formula One now. I was not indispensable to the team. Let me tell you that, TC, as I think we all found out. But why would you rile your boss and do something that goes against the team? You have to be standing on a very, very solid contract, and the team absolutely need you to be able to stand up to them and tell them where to go. And there's not many drivers that the team depend on.

28:24James Hinchcliffe:You have to remember at the end of the day, as much as the 22 Formula One drivers on the grid or the 25 IndyCar drivers on the grid or whatever grids we were on when we were drivers, we like to think that all this happens for us. But, you know, it really doesn't. And it is a team sport. Right. And so if you don't play the team game, the team has a lot more opportunity to compromise your season if they want to start getting petty about it and they want to try to teach you a lesson. So it's a slippery slope. You know, I look at Alonzo as the one that sort of has done this in the past and has managed to survive it.

29:01James Hinchcliffe:Being invited back to McLaren at any point in his career after 2007 was shocking. But it took him eight years, Hinch. You know, yeah, no, no, it's deservedly so. So, yeah, it's just it's not worth it. It's one of those things like, you know, a driver's world, you know, your mind works as you are the center of the universe, right? You kind of have to have that mentality as a pro athlete. And it's one of those moments where you have to accept, right, that that's not necessarily the case. And for your own greater good, your own long term health in the sport, taking that hit, taking that L on the day is very important.

29:40And I've always wondered this as a driver, do you feel part of a team or do you feel more like a consultant?

29:49James Hinchcliffe:I would say part of a team personally. I mean, you know, I always really relish that team environment, you know, and being very close to your mechanics and your engineers. And you're going to war together, you know, like that's kind of what it was like. You're going to battle and you have to have a respect. You have to have an appreciation for the people that you're doing that with, I think. and every time you were in a more cohesive unit and a group that got along better and had that sort of team, that family feel, I found results came much easier. And I've seen it from the outside as well. Whenever there's tension and contentious relationships within the team, the performance element is harder to come by.

30:28Jolyon Palmer:But you know you're an individual. I knew I was an individual in the team. Of course you work hard with the team because it's how you're going to get the best results. the rest of the team they have contracts to be in their head office they can get moved around they can be race engineer they can go to chief engineer they can move teams if they want but as a racing driver you are half a season away from being talking about you being dropped you may be three races away from you being talked about being flicked and there is a little bit of a difference there when you're the driver you're a linchpin of the team everyone's looking at you the whole time as a leader in the team as well.

31:04Jolyon Palmer:So it's this strange thing where you're a leader in the team, but equally you can be dropped quite easily as well. We're seeing more and more these really long-term deals though. So I guess for Max, for Lando, for Charles, for probably Kimi soon and George, they've been at the team, I mean, so long that they probably feel much more immersed in it, especially if you've got to just sign a new four-year deal. I guess it is a little bit different to my year-by-year treading-on-eggshells career. Well, what about Ferrari at Baku then? They haven't been on the podium for four races. Charles is a bit of a specialist in Baku.

31:44He's got an amazing qualifying record there, four consecutive poles between 21 and 24. Is that enough? You know, we've discussed the all-conquering Mercedes. have Ferrari got enough to let Schal get at least a pole position?

32:01James Hinchcliffe:Pole, who knows? I'm actually still just shocked at how insanely close qualifying is at this stage of a right set. You know, to have four different manufacturers in the top four at Madrid, that's impressive. I mean, if you go back to the first year of hybrids in 2014, that was not happening at the three-quarter mark of the season or the two-third mark of the season, wherever we're at. So it's super impressive, especially in qualifying. Anything's possible. I certainly think he's on for a podium. I think that they could be right up there, especially with Charles, just because of his, you know, like you say, his expertise at Baku.

32:39Jolyon Palmer:There's some talk of him possibly having an engine penalty for Baku, which would be a kicker if true, because he is so fast around that particular circuit. So we'll wait and see. if I was Leclerc as much as on paper you think not necessarily Ferrari's greatest track with the straight line speed and easy to overtake easier to overtake so that's the logic for it but you're still thinking he is magic around that circuit so the other one is remember we're expecting George Russell still to to have that grid penalty that Antonelli took in Monza so that'll be opportunities for the rest if that's going to materialize for Russell and possibly Leclerc

33:31well what about last year's winner max verstappen he's yet to win in formula one in 2026 but he has won a race i don't know whether you guys caught up with this last week but max v 100 it was a go-kart race at silverstone in which he was starting at the back and he had a hundred karts ahead of him and he'd overtaken all of them within 14 laps it was it was incredible actually i don't did you guys catch up with it have you seen the highlights i did yeah i was i

34:07James Hinchcliffe:was all over i thought it was hilarious you know jake c was was on the call so it had a it had a certain panache about it. I thought it was hilarious. The fact that he had taken down about 25 of them before turn three was impressive. It was good fun to watch. I bet he was giggling in his helmet the whole time. Who was he racing? They were amateurs, is all I was told. There were some journalists, there were some influencers, but I think everyone had had to qualify for the race. There were, you know, no one was rubbish. He still managed to do, how many was it? 60 on the opening lap or something incredible.

34:45They all crashed into each other. It got me thinking a couple of things. One was I love the way Alex Jakes was able to talk to the drivers during the race. He was able to have a conversation with the drivers. You know, Max, how's it going kind of thing. And I thought that was amazing. I'd love to see more of that in Formula One. We trialed it a few years back. But just imagine if you guys, you know, in commentary, were able to just dial up the guy leading the race. Imagine if you've been able to speak to Kimi Antonelli at Monza while he was carving through the field. It would have been amazing telly.

35:21James Hinchcliffe:I mean, we're halfway there, you know, an IndyCar under red flags. You know, we'll jump on and chat to a driver. Next is going to be under caution. And then eventually it'll be under green flag. We'll see if we can make it happen. How much does it take away from you guys in terms of concentration? to suddenly have Jake's earring. To have an interview, yeah, no, not great. It is not ideal. It is a suboptimal situation to use engineering parlance.

35:48Jolyon Palmer:I mean, it depends on the track, doesn't it? Because there'll be some places, if you're a Monza and you're just in a long run at some point, I reckon you could get just snippets of info. The drivers absorb so much information and digest it that just to have a, you wouldn't want to get them thinking too heavily about a tricky curveball question, would you?

36:07James Hinchcliffe:but something straightforward simple question down the back straight into parabolica and then get the answer down into turn one yeah probably doable well the other thing it got me thinking is what is the craziest race that you two have ever done right in in a similar vein to max versus

36:27Jolyon Palmer:100 carters nothing for me i was trying to rack my brain and i can tell you i i've never done anything like that i've just regular racing you hinge yeah i for me it'd be the uh the grunge of

36:41James Hinchcliffe:viana 500 go-kart race down in brazil so all the the felipe masses ruben barichello you know all all the brazilian f1 guys started putting on this race years ago and it's a 500 mile go-kart race you have three or four drivers on the team and it is it's it's exactly what you just watched max do but for like 11 hours. And it is at a much higher level. Everybody's quite good. The carts have these decent-sized bodywork on them, so it ends up being quite a contact sport. You're pretty sore at the end of it. But it was an absolute blast. And they do it every year, and I got to go down, I don't know if that was 2012, something like that.

37:24James Hinchcliffe:Who were your teammates? TK is usually there. My main teammate was a guy called Rafael Matos, who I raced against in the junior formula and he made it to IndyCar as well, I think the year before I did. And we'd just been buddies and he invited me down. Tony Kanaan was involved somehow in making it all happen. And yeah, we put together this team with a couple, you know, young, hot Brazilian carters and off we went. Rubens always wins. It always seems like, you know, his cart's got a couple extra horsepower, but it's always good fun. I did wonder whether Max might've had a couple of extra horsepower in his race uh last week at silverstone but if you look at the footage no i don't think it was that he wasn't it wasn't in the straights that he was that he was getting them was it it was it was cutting across the grass that was the that was the key move there was quite a lot of that talking of cutting across the grass so so neither of you has won a lawnmower race clearly as i know back you have thousand oh yes oh here we go tc here we go back in 2002 b.a.r honda organized a lawnmower race over the british grand prix olivier panis was my teammate and we won and i won a lawnmower you know what nice i've competed in a lawnmower race actually now that you say that did you win i don't remember i don't remember this was back in the i think you didn't win if you don't remember it i know i can see the pictures of me posing on the tractor which makes me think maybe we did win but this was back in the a1 gp days and it was a it was a promotional stunt i want to say in brno in the czech republic or something like that

39:08Jolyon Palmer:heck of a track that is hinge i think you'd know about it made if you want yeah that's fair you'd remember yeah you remember something your lawn would never look the same again you might have started on pole for the Indy 500 Hinch but you would have remembered this even more I promise I promise but what about Max then well also TC I think we've missed a trick by not sending you to race Max great point you should have taken the hit for the podcast and really got the first hand experience lining me up for it rather than you JP or Hinch would we be allowed I thought it was all three of us you can't do it in 14 laps We need to make it a bit harder for you.

39:50How about having Hinch and Palmer to play again?

39:53James Hinchcliffe:Wasn't the deal they gave him an hour to do it and he did it in 20 minutes or 21 minutes or something? Yeah. Yeah. It was great. It was really good viewing. Very different. But what about his chances then of winning in Formula One? Let's bring it back to Baku. He won last year. What do you think? Four podiums in the last five races.

40:12Jolyon Palmer:Do you want a couple of stats whilst we're on Max? Yes.

40:17James Hinchcliffe:Yes, I love it. We've hit the topic. Do you want to enjoy a bit of a deep dive?

40:23Jolyon Palmer:So who has the most podiums this year in Formula One? Well, it must be Kimi Antonelli. Correct. Second? Oh, you see. Right. I see where you're going with this, JP. Yeah, we're following the trend now. Second? Right. So it's the big man. It's Max Verstappen, right? It's actually George. Max is third, though. So he has more podiums than the Ferrari guys, than Lando. and do you know his average qualifying position for when he's ended up on the podium? It's fifth. But he just keeps ending up there, doesn't he? Thirds and seconds, and he's absolutely racking them up. And I was looking through, to complete the set here, since Miami, where he qualified on the front row, by the way, but looped it at the start, if you remember.

41:09Jolyon Palmer:But since then, there have been 10 races, and he should have been on the podium for eight of them. He's actually been on the podium for six, but if you count Silverstone as a podium where he was safely third before the rear wing failed, and if you count Monaco, which is a guaranteed podium from the front row, that's eight out of ten podiums he should have had. The level of his performance, the consistency of it, in a Red Bull that I think at no point you could even really argue has been the second best car on any given track, is absolutely immense. Do you think this is his best season? No. No, because there have been a couple of moments.

41:49Jolyon Palmer:I mean, even the Miami spin, the Zandvoort crash, there's been a couple of moments where you see that he's human and there's been seasons where you don't see that he's human the entire season with Max. When we're talking about what is Max's best ever season, I think that's always going to be an extraordinarily high benchmark. But do you not think he's doing things with this car? The car shouldn't be where it is. whereas in previous seasons when he's been dominating he's had a much more competitive car so it's much harder to keep this thing on the road i thought what he did in i mean monza was the race where i just looked at him after the race what how are you here yeah what are you doing in this press conference surely you're you're meant to be yeah somewhere else because you speak to them after every race and you just you have to prepare all the questions for max even though you're like he starts seventh today he has the fourth best car he'll probably still only be

42:40James Hinchcliffe:Yeah.

42:42Jolyon Palmer:But when you look through how he's done it, and largely it's keeping his nose clean at the start, getting some decent starts, and then one or two of his rivals falling into trouble, be it penalties, collisions, reliability, VSC timings, strategy stuff. But it's the relentless consistency of him. If you're in a better car, but you slip up, Max will beat you. That's what's basically happening this year.

43:05James Hinchcliffe:And if you're in a better car and you don't slip up, there's still a 50 % chance that he beats you. And he still might. Yeah. Yeah, it's that impressive. For the first time with Williams, Carlos Sainz will stand on the podium. It's Williams' first podium since 2021 and in a full race since here in 2017. Vamos! Vamos! Best podium in my career, guys. You cannot imagine how this is. This is my first smooth operation in Williams. a year is a long time in formula one particularly if you're racing for williams because it was of course baku last year where carlos science got that sensational third place and the chances of it happening again this year guys i think is very slim even with the 2027 chassis that they're going a debut this weekend?

44:00Jolyon Palmer:I would say the chance is still very slim to none but I am interested to see Williams performance this weekend James Vowles was talking about it in the summer when Williams were bringing some small upgrades and he said the b-spec car is coming for Baku which is a big step and then almost every single race since then they've been rowing back quite how big that step is going to be so it remains to be seen chassis upgrade loads of aerodynamic parts and we will we will see if it if it gives them something i would have thought williams would go better in baku naturally anyway given the the layout of the circuit mercedes power unit short radius corners low speed corners it's if you think actually monaco was a pretty good weekend for them you add in monaco with some straights and you think this should be decent for williams and then they're bringing this this upgraded car to some degree we will we will see if they can battle for a point how how important is weight in formula one hinge i mean this is the first time that williams are going to be on the weight limit of seven six eight kilos what is it is every 10 kilos is worth 0.3 of a second round a standard length track i don't know but can you just give

45:12James Hinchcliffe:us a bit more info on that it's free lap time right it requires no setup changes it requires There's no driving ability. It is quite literally like horsepower. It's just free lap time. So it is absolutely vital. It's absolutely crucial. You know, it's one of the one of the big improvements we've seen from a lot of these other cars that started the season, maybe a bit fat. You think about the Red Bull. That one, you know, we know started on the heavy side. And as Julian rightly points out, since Miami, it should have been eight of ten podiums. So that's going to be a huge relief for the drivers, a huge relief for the engineers.

45:47James Hinchcliffe:it helps with everything it helps with brakes it helps with traction it helps with tire degradation and then just pure lap lap speed like you say so if they're truly there that in and of itself is just going to be a massive benefit for them i mean williams are six points behind audi in the constructors championship if you're audi are you worried about them or do you think audi have got enough pace to see out the season at least where they are i'd say wary more than worried

46:17Jolyon Palmer:I just think Williams also yeah this upgrade is an unknown but they need a huge amount of performance to get fighting for a point because they've just dropped away into that Q1 exit time really there was a period where they were trying to beat Esteban Ocon possibly Behrman on a bad day but Haas have just bought an upgrade package that should have moved them clear again so it's a really big gulf they've got just to get to the next car let alone try and get to the top 10 and that's where Audi I can't count the amount of times we're doing a grid walk before the start of the race and you're like well Audi will be 11th the amount of times that they start there and they just can't quite get that top 10 with the four big teams plus either Alpine or Racing Bulls on the day getting there and Audi they've obviously made it a few times but they've got a lot more pace than than Williams so it just demonstrates So I think everyone else has made big steps and scoring six points is not easy with eight races to go.

47:18Well, guys, it's time for predictions. I know how much you love that. Who's going to go first? Let's have top three for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, please.

47:29James Hinchcliffe:I'll take it. I feel like I'd normally dump this on Julian to go first. So I'm going to go a Mercedes 1-2, Kimi from George, and I'm going to put Max third. because that's just what he does. And is George going to be close to Kimi? George will be close-ish. It'll be meaningful progress in closing the gap. I think it'll be very close in qualifying and closer maybe than what we've seen in the race. But Kimi will still come out on top.

48:01Jolyon Palmer:Well, I'm going to say Kimi wins, but I am expecting George to have a grid drop. And I don't know with that. Without a grid drop. Hang on.

48:10James Hinchcliffe:Without a grid drop. As of today, there is no grid drop. So I'm going to stick by it, but with an asterisk there if needed. That'll learn you, Hinch. So hold on. Well, let me give my George grid penalty assessment then. It'll be Kimmy, Max, Charles. Okay.

48:30Jolyon Palmer:I think it'll be Kimmy. and I will also go Max second and I will go Lando third, I think. Okay, and I'm going to just, I'm going to throw in George with a grid penalty coming back to P3. I've been listening to what you said about overtaking opportunities around Baku, JP, and I think he can carve his way through and it's going to be a real confidence booster for him. But a Kimi Antonelli win, I mean, no great surprise there. we're not shaking the tree when we say that but it's just hard to see anyone beating him isn't it and you're missing a second place here tc no max sorry i was with you okay yeah yeah max is obviously gonna finish on the podium because as him said that's what he does it doesn't matter yeah also it's baku not a small chance of a safety car and a high chance of that shaking out the race in some form if it comes late then you're better off starting on the hard if it comes early the other way around.

49:32Jolyon Palmer:So we know only too well how that can change things. Well, guys, thank you both very much as ever. Brilliant, brilliant to chat. Now, in selected countries, you can watch all the racing on F1 TV and on Apple TV in the US. And you can also keep across all the action at F1.com, the F1 app, and at F1 on social media. Now, in the meantime, why don't you check out F1's other official podcasts? And my guest this week on F1 Beyond the Grid is Romain Grosjean. We discuss all things about his Formula One career. And of course, it is 10 years since he joined Haas for their first season in Formula One. That's out on Wednesday.

50:11And you can watch our chat on the F1 YouTube channel. And the latest episode of F1 Explains is all about the podium ceremony. That's just below this episode on the F1 Nation feed. So thank you very much for listening. We will, of course, be back next Monday to review the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. So we'll speak to you then. F1 Nation is produced by Formula One and Audioboom Studios.