'Oscar has nothing to lose' - 2025 Las Vegas GP Preview with James Hinchcliffe

25:21James Hinchcliffe:There's nothing to say we can't get to Abu Dhabi and have him be fighting for the win there. That's a track that we know that that team and that driver can be very good at, regardless of what anyone else is doing. So it's still, I think, a situation where Max could win the next three Grand Prix. but he's 40 he's 49 points back that's yeah i don't think he's gonna win the championship but for the neutral that's the gutting thing isn't it the gap is now so so big to to lando that lando can just manage it now if he's if he drives intelligently and and this is the part that i wonder if red bull's frustrated at because you know they there was a lot of talk in brazil about kind of how they approached setting up the car they brought maybe a slight i know it wasn't even a modified floor i don't think i don't think was any updates from any of the teams in brazil yeah first time this year right but they they were doing something different i heard with the floor or were trying to make it work a certain way because on paper the numbers were saying it was better well the lap time was arguing that fact and they stuck with it whatever whatever setup philosophy they went with obviously didn't work and then again you look at the pace in the grand prix and they're all going to be sitting there thinking if we had just figured this out one session sooner and i'm sure a lot was learned that that weekend and they probably have a better sense of how to keep the car in that window for these last three races but again i'm kind of with you it's a little bit too little too late uh in terms of the driver's championship but we'll see we'll see and and to go back to what you were saying at the start vegas is very similar to baku in terms of the long straights and the slow 90-degree corners.

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28:31There's more to come from our Las Vegas preview in a moment, but I just wanted to let you know about the other official F1 podcast you can listen to this week. My latest guest on F1 Beyond the Grid is Oscar Piastri, who talks about the pressure of fighting his teammate Lando Norris in the World Championship battle and how he's made such a big step forward this year. That's out now. You can watch our chat on the F1 YouTube channel as well. And this week's F1 Explains is all about what you can expect from the Cadillac F1 team joining the grid in 2026 with their CEO, Dan Tauris. That's out on Friday.

29:06Just search for F1 Beyond the Grid and F1 Explains on your podcast app.

29:14Vegas! George Russell wins the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Viva!

29:24Oh, boys, I can't. Whoa, come on. What about Mercedes then, Hinch? Last year's winners. Do you think Mercedes go to Vegas as favorites?

29:40James Hinchcliffe:Probably. You know, I think if you're just looking at, you know, pure numbers and all the rest of it, it's probably between them and Red Bull in terms of pure favorites. You know, the performance last year was unbelievable. I think a lot of the traits of that car still exist this year. I think it's better in other ways, maybe stronger even. Of course, the rest of the field will have made, you know, adjustments and figured certain things out from last year to make their cars more competitive. But yeah, I think with the way George has been driving and what we know about that car in that track, you would think that they're right up there with Max in terms of, you know, he expected to be quick right out of the gate.

30:18Everyone talks so much about how cooler conditions help Mercedes, but that's in a race situation. That doesn't explain the advantage that Russell had in qualifying over one lap, does it? That's just raw performance.

30:31James Hinchcliffe:It is, but it's also, again, we talk about the tire temps and the tire prep. And when you have a car, you know, what was so drastic about the Mercedes last year and why it excelled in cool conditions is because it was so hard on its tires and overheated them in anything that was moderate ambient to high. that in cooler temps, when other teams were struggling to get the tire into the right window for qualifying, Mercedes could do it quite comfortably just because of the characteristic of the car. So I don't think it's as much a pure performance thing as it was their ability to kind of exploit and get the most out of the tire, whether it was qualifying conditions over one lap or race conditions over a stint.

31:08James Hinchcliffe:I think that's part of where that advantage came from. They've done a lot to mitigate that because we don't have a lot of cool Grand Prix in a year. we have a lot of hot Grand Prix in a year and so you'd rather it the other way it'll be interesting to see if they still have as much of an advantage because if anything they've done to try to reduce the amount of energy they're putting in the tire over one lap has actually made it harder to get to those um those optimum temperatures in in you know the cooler ambience well and the last time we had these three Pirelli compounds that the C3, 4 and 5 was in Singapore a hot race in which George Russell dominated Saturday and Sunday.

31:45So you're right. Maybe to be better in Singapore, you're going to be worse in Vegas, but we will find out. What about Kimi Antonelli? This is the first time he's going to be racing in Vegas. As I said a moment ago, you know, he put one over Russell in Brazil. He was very cool under pressure in the closing stages when he had the giant Max Verstappen closing in on him. Have you seen enough now to understand why Toto Wolff was so keen to put him in the car at such a young age?

32:17James Hinchcliffe:Yes, for sure. But I also think it's important for people to remember that they didn't plan on putting him in the car at quite such a young age. Lewis had another year. Lewis wasn't supposed to be leaving, right? They wanted Lewis for another year. They wanted Kimi to have a second year of F2 and come in with a little bit more experience, more TPC testing, more FP1s, all that stuff. So I do think that's an important thing to remember whenever you're looking at anything that Kimi does or doesn't do in 2025. He came in less prepared than Mercedes planned for him to be in their ideal world perfect grandmaster plan, right?

32:51James Hinchcliffe:When you take that into consideration and you look at what he's done this year, you can certainly see why Mercedes thought there was potential there and why they think he could be a world champion in the future. there was still a lot of polishing to do um i think that's an undeniable truth and i don't think anybody kimmy himself would argue that fact but when you see him put together a full weekend like he did in brazil it's going to give everybody a lot more confidence everybody in the team everybody you know outwardly i think can take a lot from how he performed because the race itself obviously super impressive fighting off max maintaining the race pace you know was never threatened by George, really.

33:33James Hinchcliffe:But that's, to me, honestly, the least impressive part of the weekend, which is kind of highlighting how impressive that weekend really was. You know, a track he's never been to and qualifies P2 for the sprint. In the sprint, difficult conditions, caught out some very established, successful and experienced drivers. He was fine, held his own, brought it home P2, backed it up in qualifying for the Grand Prix and then executed great in the race. little turn one thing with Piastri notwithstanding, survived that and did a great, great job in the race itself. And when you look at where Kimmy's had some kind of up and down weekends, there's always a day, there's always a session where it looks like the kind of pressure gets to him.

34:15James Hinchcliffe:And it always seems to be, again, it's that internal pressure because you could go all the way back to Australia, right? His first ever Grand Prix. On the racetrack, wheel to wheel, he was fine. He is not intimidated by the guys he's racing against. He is very competent. His race craft is very impressive for a rookie. His spatial awareness is very impressive for a rookie. Again, turn one in Brazil notwithstanding. But that's why the battle with Max was very impressive, but it wasn't as impressive because we've seen flashes of that from him already this year. It was more the ability to execute, to back up strong performances.

34:50James Hinchcliffe:Because once you qualify P2, finish P2, when you go into Grand Prix qualifying, that expectation is exponentially higher than had you qualified seventh and finished sixth in the sprint. And that's the kind of pressure that he has had, I think, more trouble with this year. And it didn't phase him. And he executed. So I think it was a big weekend of growth for Kimi or shows a lot of growth. Okay. Lando Norris doesn't believe in momentum. but I think Kimi Antonelli can. I do feel he's building something now. I think he's got to be careful about that, to be honest. I think he's got to have more of the Lando approach because I think a lot of what has hurt him at some races has been expectation.

35:32James Hinchcliffe:You know, it's been talked about a lot. Like, this is not an original thought for me by any stretch, but when the European season started, his form really took a dip, right? So he started the year at a bunch of tracks he'd never been to. He's now ending the year on a bunch of tracks he's never been to. And he's bookended his year with some pretty good performances in the middle at all the tracks he's raced at extensively performing below expectation. And I think that's part of the problem is the expectation was higher. They came in like, oh, well, you know, you did so well at these tracks you've never been to just wait till you get to a place you've done a thousand laps around.

36:02James Hinchcliffe:And that expectation, I think, got to him and led to kind of a rougher period of performance. you then get away from those tracks back to sprint races at tracks he's never been to one practice session before going into qualifying for the sprint race but it's i think that's what's important is off the back of this so mexico he beats george brazil he beats george every session of the of the weekend he's got to get to vegas with tempered expectations this is a complete reset we are not in brazil anymore what you did in brazil means absolutely nothing in las vegas so be happy with the result be confident in yourself that you were able to progress and continue to perform, but do not expect that you're going to beat George necessarily.

36:44James Hinchcliffe:Do not expect that you're going to be fighting for a podium. Just go in there with the mindset of I'm new here, never been to this track. I got to learn and, and just kind of do the best job you can. And I think driving with that sort of weight off your shoulders and expectation out of your mind helps drivers drive better. Hinch, do you believe in form when you look at racing drivers? Do you believe that you can have some days are better than others and there's nothing that you can consciously do to rectify a situation just some some days you're in good form and some days you're not yes i fully believe in form and i think that everybody has off days i think that it's important to analyze those days and try to establish something but if nothing stands out then you have to forget that day happened.

37:31James Hinchcliffe:Because if you if you let it sit and live in the back of your head that Oh, I had this bad day. And I don't even know why you're always going to be questioning, God, I wonder why that was and you're spending that energy trying to establish something trying to figure something out, you're not going to figure out. So the quicker you can just let it go, you don't you don't get to Formula One without being an exceptional racing driver, you don't forget how to drive overnight. So if you have a bad day, or you have a bad weekend, if there's nothing that's super apparent to learn from. So, you know, you look at Oscar in Mexico, there was something that very specific that he could learn in a, in a, in a characteristic that the car had and a technique that he needed to perfect to get better in those conditions.

38:13James Hinchcliffe:Perfect. Look at that, analyze that work on that. Cool. If you go to a different track and there's not something that's that obvious and you're just having an off day, you almost have to forget it ever happened and just approach the next weekend with a completely fresh mindset. Because again, you know how to drive a race car. You don't get here without that. And as soon as you start thinking back about things that you can't figure out, you don't know why it didn't go well, your energy staying back there, your mental capacity staying back there, it's not staying with you in the present and letting you drive to your full potential.

38:44But do drivers, so Antonelli has just had this amazing weekend in Brazil. Does he, do you think, go to Vegas with more confidence? I think so, yes.

38:53James Hinchcliffe:And I think that's appropriate. I think it's important to be confident in yourself that you can do the job. But there's a difference between confidence and expectation. And I think that's where he and the team around him need to be conscious of how they approach Vegas. this feels like quite a good segue into talking about ferrari when we talk about expectation and i mean crikey their third pointless race weekend of of 2025 but somehow brazil felt worse than the other two just friday the car was nowhere then this leclerc puts together this lap out of nowhere to put it p3 on the on the grid but really the performance wasn't there and then two dnfs john elkin the boss then comes out the following day and says my drivers need to focus more and talk less i mean that's got negative vibes that that quote hasn't it and and just what do you do if you're ferrari how do you you talk about resetting not looking back when it comes to drivers what what do teams do what does what is the mindset of of the scuderia as it goes to Vegas?

40:01James Hinchcliffe:I mean, it's tough to know. It's tough to know what's happening inside that team right now. But ultimately, you know, this is where team principals really earn their money, is when these difficult situations arise, because so much of it is still mindset and so much of it is culture. And the weekend that they had, the subsequent comments from Elkin, that's going to that's going to set a tone in that team. And it's not the kind of tone you want to show up to the racetrack with or hanging around the back of your head. So the weekend was the weekend. The comments from the boss were the comments from the boss.

40:38James Hinchcliffe:Fred Vassura has to kind of approach these things head on, have a very frank conversation with the team, clear the air that needs to be cleared and understand and make everybody in that team believe that we are still a team. We are all still going for the same thing. We have the same goals. We're all working very hard and we're just going to, we're going to keep doing, you know, our best. We're going to do better than our best. We're going to put together the best weekend we've had all year, operationally, executionally, whatever, and, and see how, you know, it shakes out from a performance standpoint.

41:07James Hinchcliffe:The pace of the car is the pace of the car. The difficulty in the car is the difficulty in the car. We're three races to go. That's not going to change. And I think, again, being realistic about that, I don't think there's any motivational speech that anyone can give that's going to lock up a one-two for Ferrari in Vegas. I think, again, it's dealing with this issue because there's now been an issue, there's been a discussion, it's a public one, and letting the team know that they are still a team, they're all of each other's best allies in getting this thing going in the right direction, and trying to just keep the tone as positive as you can, understanding the situation that you're I thought it was very interesting after the race in Brazil that Lewis Hamilton used the word nightmare to describe what he's been living through at Ferrari.

41:55This is not his first rodeo. He's an intelligent man. He knew exactly what he was saying. And I think it's that comment in particular that Elkin is referring to when he says they need to talk less. I just find myself wondering what Lewis was trying to achieve by using the word nightmare, whether he was trying to take the blame himself. He's very good at taking the blame. You know, after all of the struggles in qualifying, he's the first one to say, it's me, I'm slow. I and I maybe it was an extension of that. But still, I thought it was fascinating that he used the word nightmare because he knew that whatever language you speak, you know what a nightmare is.

42:34And that was going to be that's a powerful message that he's getting across.

42:38James Hinchcliffe:I think with Lewis, he is a massively intelligent man, as you said. He is also an emotional one. And we catch him, I say we, the media, the world catches him fresh out of the car. After every session, he's got to go to the pen. And I think sometimes there hasn't been enough time between a bad session and when drivers have to have those chats with the world media to get your head in the right place. Certain drivers can do it easier than others. Everyone's a person. Everyone's a human at the end of the day. This is not an easy job. It's not an easy amount of pressure to deal with. So, you know, I think Lewis said that in the moment because it was an emotional moment.

43:18James Hinchcliffe:I think that, yeah, he certainly does want people to understand how difficult it's been. The other half of that quote about it being a nightmare is, you know, he's like, I'm stuck in this sort of this two-sided situation of the privilege of driving for this beautiful team. And, you know, he paid the team a massive compliment before he then said how difficult the year's been. So, you know, I think Lewis is very aware that it's a privileged position to be racing for Ferrari in Formula One. But this is also a guy that has won over 100 Grand Prix and seven World Championships and didn't come here to finish seventh.

43:56James Hinchcliffe:So it's it's it's tough for people to sometimes grasp how challenging that position can be in for a driver. But again, part of the job is knowing what to say and when knowing what not to say and when. And I think, you know, Elkin's comments are a little bit of a reminder of, hey, guys, even when it's going poorly, Like we can have those discussions behind closed doors, but when there's a microphone in your face, sorry, you got to have to toe the line a little bit. And it sucks that drivers can't always just speak their mind. But that's the reality of the situation. And you know what you sign up for when you get into this business.

44:31Vegas in 2023, they finished on the podium last year. Do you think this is their last opportunity of 25 to get that elusive first victory?

44:43James Hinchcliffe:It's certainly their best one of the three remaining. Certainly. And what's so interesting about them and Mercedes kind of, you know, in particular is you get these pretty drastic swings in performance that are sometimes inexplicable and both good and bad. So for all we know, we could show up and they could be one, two on the grid again. And even they will look around and be like, yep, not entirely sure where that came from, but we'll take it and see how it goes on Sunday. Now let's go further back down the order because in the Constructors' Battle, there are just 12 points covering Racing Bulls in 6th, Aston Martin in 7th and Haas in 8th.

45:23It feels that Oli Behrman is carrying the Haas team at the moment. He's done four consecutive points finishes. He's outperforming Esteban Ocon. He was brilliant in Q1 and Q2 in Brazil. there was a little bit of me that thought my goodness is he going to be in the top three at one point on the grid let's start by talking about him um you wrote an article on f1.com recently actually Hinch about him and his his rookie season and his future just what are the main headlines for you in terms of the job that Ollie's doing I think the main ones are you know

45:59James Hinchcliffe:you look at qualifying head-to-head with a vastly more experienced race-winning teammate You talked about that run that he's on for consecutive Q3 appearances for consecutive points finishes. That's also ignoring a run of four consecutive 11th place finishes that he had in the middle of the year. So, I mean, he's been there, thereabouts. And, you know, look, it's a car that the midfield just so, so close. Right. And until I think his fourth in Mexico, they were they were ninth in the constructor standings. You know, he was getting those points finishes. They were nines and tens. You're getting one or two points when Sauber throws a podium up at Silverstone and gets a hall of points.

46:41James Hinchcliffe:You know, that's hard to come back from when you're only getting one or two a weekend. But the fact that Ali has been consistently doing that and Esteban has not been as consistent in contributing. And then you have, you know, that kind of breakout performance from a result standpoint. he's kind of helped get them back into that conversation. And it's funny because I feel like we went into Brazil with that same spread of 12 points, but everybody scored points and it's moved around, but the overall spread's the same. But within that little pocket, it's changed a bit. And it's such a fun battle to watch.

47:16James Hinchcliffe:There's so much pride on the line. Obviously, there's the money on the line for those teams, but there's just so much pride right now because it is such a close battle. and one one sunday can swing it because you get a result like that fourth in mexico or like nico's third in uh in silverstone uh double points for racing bulls and it and it can it can really change the uh the complexity of it and the look of it but bearman um the highlights for sure have been his his single lap pace has been phenomenal from the get-go his race craft is getting better and better his consistency is getting better and better and and he's doing it you know with a with with a smile on his face and with a youthful exuberance that I think is kind of refreshing in Formula One right now.

48:01A Haas going to finish sixth. Do you see them getting those 12 points over Racing Bulls? 12 is a lot.

48:08James Hinchcliffe:12 is a lot to outscore them by because the Racing Bulls is a competitive car and Hadjar has been bulletproof all season long. Lawson has been a bit more fluctuating, but when he's on, as we saw last weekend, he's on. the two of them are often finishing close to each other when when lawson's on a strong weekend so i think it's going to be very tough to outscore them by 12 points i think hoska get 12 more points by the end of the year but that's at the same time with racing bulls having zero i i find that one a bit of a stretch all right what about aston aston are only two points ahead of them in p7 Yeah, I think that's much more plausible.

48:52James Hinchcliffe:The thing with Aston is, as much as you hate to say it, the last half of the season, there's only been one car scoring points. Even in Mexico, all he was fourth, Esteban was in the points as well. He was P9, right? So it was a double score for them. I don't know the last time Aston had a double score, but unless they're at a track where it really suits the car like it did in Hungary and kind of like it did in Brazil, honestly, the car was fairly competitive there. I don't know. I just feel like the other teams have a bit more momentum and there are tracks coming up that are going to be better for them than maybe the Aston.

49:27James Hinchcliffe:So I could see them falling back. Well, Hinch, it's been a great chat. Thank you very much for your time as ever. can we end this with some predictions come on give us your top three for sunday in vegas top three for sunday in vegas i'm gonna go a verstappen win from a russell second and a hamilton third wow so hamilton's first podium for ferrari why do you think verstappen's gonna put it over mercedes because he's max you know it's a terrible excuse but it's also the best one um yeah i just i i think i do think that some of what made mercedes so much better than everyone else in vegas last year has been inherently built out of the car to make it a more all-rounded car so i don't think that their advantage is going to be as good we've had other cooler grand prix where they were competitive but they were not the lights out above the rest of the field that we saw in vegas last year and i think you know i think the red bull is just at a very high level right now max is always at a high level uh and they just have a way of pulling out results when they need them don't they so um yeah i i think advantage to a very slight degree to max going in and that's a great finishing order for the championship for the neutral because you're suggesting we're going to get no mclaren on the podium which means max is going to gain a bunch of points uh it's going to be a brilliant one i actually still think russell can do it i feel there's something about him in vegas and street tracks i thought his performance in singapore earlier this year You know, those two laps good enough for pole in qualy.

51:02There's something about Russell. And also, he will have had his nose put out of joint by Antonelli in Brazil. So he's going to be pushing hard from the outset. Well, Hinch, thank you so much. Great to speak to you. And I will see you in Vegas.

51:19James Hinchcliffe:I cannot wait. Look forward to it. Thanks for having me on. And if you have F1 TV, you can watch Hinch's analysis of all the action in Las Vegas with live coverage of every session. You can also keep across everything that happens at F1.com, the F1 app, and at F1 on social media. Or you can watch F1 cars racing down the strip at 200 miles an hour yourself. Just go to F1lasVegasGP.com to get your tickets now. Thank you very much for listening. We will, of course, be back next Monday with our review of the race. F1 Nation is produced by Formula One and Audioboom Studios.

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