Russell, reliability or Ferrari? What is Kimi’s biggest threat? – Belgian GP Preview

21:53James Hinchcliffe:are firm favorites again i think yes going to spa certainly mercedes are the firm favorites and um you know to a certain extent fortune did favor them in in silverstone you know kimmy's issues I think were not insignificant and definitely played a part in how that one played out. Ultimately, you know, Charles did a remarkable job. Ferrari did a remarkable job. I don't think we were even expecting them to be quite as close there as they were just like Spain. It's kind of been a bit backwards. But I think that ultimately Mercedes still has the upper hand. I think if they can stay on top of reliability issues and strategy issues and things like that, they've got two great drivers.

22:37James Hinchcliffe:They've got a great car. They've got a great power unit. I think they definitely head to Belgium as the favorites. Ferrari, as much as I hate this philosophy, you know, in theory, if they have any chance of this, I think they do have to back one. And right now with the gap between Charles and Lewis, you have to back Lewis. And luckily, Charles fast enough. You go back to last year and it was Max versus both McLarens, right? They were taking points off each other, which helped his cause. But he didn't have a teammate that could help play or run interference and take points off both of them as well.

23:12James Hinchcliffe:In Ferrari's case right now, they do. They've got two drivers that are performing at a very high level. And if they do decide to do what we know Ferrari have no issue doing and have done plenty times in the past, that is their best shot. It's still a long shot, but it is their best shot. I mean, Hinch, JP was banging this drum a couple of weeks ago on the show, wasn't he? But the gap now is only 39 points between the two Ferrari drivers. Leclerc is only 71 points. I mean, I say only, but we've still got a long way to go. I'm now coming down on that they've got to keep it open. I mean, JP, are you still banging the drum as well that they've got to support Hamilton over Leclerc?

23:49Jolyon Palmer:I am because I think I agree with Hinch. I think it was impressive that they were as competitive as they were at Silverstone. I think it bodes really well for them to be competitive across a bigger range of tracks. But still, you look at Spa and you think Mercedes will have the upper hand. I thought it was great that Leclerc was fast. It was brilliant for him and his confidence that he won the race. It was fascinating for me to see when Ferrari won this time, especially at the start of the race, it was two Ferraris at the front versus one Mercedes. when you look at Barcelona it was two Mercedes and one Ferrari and and Leclerc wasn't there for the for the race he obviously crashed in qualifying but didn't quite have to have the the pace or the consistency at that moment so having him in the fight is obviously brilliant but I still just think he's too far away with the performance of the Ferrari do you think there was any thought in Fred Vasseur's mind when they were running one two at Silverstone right I'm going to have to swap them i don't even think he's entertaining it but that's not to say it's not the right thing tc but i don't think there would be so i there's two levels to this number one i don't think it's about to happen they have signed leclerc on a on a long-term deal they obviously need to keep him happy he's just won a race and he's going to be saying i'm only 39 points behind lewis i can still win this even if it seems very unlikely but when you look at it i was actually wondering this in the Grand Prix there was quite a big time gap between them when they were one two before the safety car came out and I was thinking if they were to swap the positions it would be really I don't think I would wouldn't expect them to do it Leclerc had done everything right he was a bit too quick for Lewis on Sunday the gap was huge it wasn't like they were line astern and it is still quite early in the season so I didn't expect them to do it but I thought if they did Hamilton right now would be 22 points behind Antonelli in the championship he'd be I think six points up on George Russell, assuming then they don't pit and the safety car and it finishes one two.

25:45Jolyon Palmer:And if I was Antonelli and you've got Leclerc now working for Hamilton and Hamilton is 22 points behind, the conversation we started this podcast with, with what would be the bigger threat, I think it would be Hamilton and Ferrari. I think it's that big a difference. Whether or not Fred can actually orchestrate that with two ambitious drivers, that's the second part of the question and that's a tricky one to do but logically if i was the boss and i had the minerals which i don't even know if i do but i would say hamilton's the guy we'll give charlotte claire some payback another time what are we we're two races until the summer break now i mean you feel that decisions like that might start getting taken around the summer break i'm now starting to agree with you jp and that if you're going to make the decision at the summer break why not make it now after nine races instead of 11 right that you just pile on the pressure so 22 points now could become 15 points could become and you enter the summer break you know right on a par you're all pulling on the same team tough on Charles but he will still get chances to win because it's not every time he'll be with Lewis right behind him and he's there for the long term it will bounce back both of you how do you break news like that to a racing driver the bad news is it just a phone call is it a look um if you're winning and Lewis's p2 and we swap you don't worry you'll still get your win bonus is that you just talk in monetary terms because that's the language they understand best

27:09James Hinchcliffe:or no these guys are making so much money on their contracts i don't think they're too fussed about the win bonus right it's the win i mean taking away a win swapping third and fourth is one thing asking a driver to sacrifice a grand prix win that's a that's a very very different conversation and a very difficult thing to do i think i don't know jp i don't know if you've ever been in that position but it's you'd want it to be an in-person conversation not a phone call and you'd want it to be if the situation was reversed we'd be doing the same for you and if we find ourselves in that position in the future you will get the same treatment i i think and then you have to just take the team at their word right but i think that's the best way to do it

27:51Jolyon Palmer:it's it's obviously a really really tricky one to do which is why i don't expect them to actually do it the payback will surely come for this the driver that is helping out at some point and it's not to say every race it's only in specific scenarios where whilst it looks like you have a chance to pile on pressure on mercedes that that's the case history would suggest other ways jp i'm just thinking of schumacher and barichello you say okay well surely you know roles get reversed no they didn't ever schumacher's a better quality of driver than barichello well hold on i'll throw

28:25James Hinchcliffe:you i'll throw you a slight caveat because you're right that's the the driver rankings across that example to what we're talking about it's not the same but when schumacher was totally out of it 99 after he came back from his leg break he played the supporting role to irvine to try to win the championship and they nearly did it but he gave up points and gave up wins so that eddie could have a crack at taking a title now you've got a great memory mate you've got a great memory that Malaysian Grand Prix 99, I remember it. Yeah, it was the most brilliant number two drive I think I've ever seen in Formula One.

28:56The way Schumacher held up, sort of backed everyone else up.

29:00Jolyon Palmer:Imagine being 19-year-old Kimi Antonelli and having to deal with that coming from Ferrari. They've got nothing to lose. They can give it absolutely their best shot. I think it would unsettle you a lot. And you've got a slightly fragile car. You've got a teammate that really wants to beat you. So there's absolutely no chance Mercedes are putting together. I think it makes sense. Also, the fact that Leclerc has now actually won a race is a great thing for him. And I think without him having a win, obviously, is a harder ask. But now he's got that win. Maybe it'll be better. I still don't. Yeah, like I said, I don't think it's going to happen.

29:31Jolyon Palmer:But all your examples, you're about to reel off there, TC. I think you've got, you're going to say Coulthard and Hackenden? I am going to say Coulthard. You're going to say Massa and Alonso? Yes. Yeah. They're all different calibre of drivers. Yeah. Remember that with the Irvine-Schumacher thing, it took for Schumacher to break his leg at Silverstone for that brilliant bit of help that he gave Irvine towards the end of the year that never quite paid off when it came to the championship. But I worry for Shell that you go and, you know, the car is good this year. Maybe by the end of the year, it could be on a par with the Mercedes.

30:07This is your chance. And you've just got to, it must be incredibly demoralizing that if you're, you know, you look at the Barrichellos and the Coulthards, I don't think they ever quite got over it.

30:16Jolyon Palmer:They were never a good enough driver to do it though, were they? On average, they were both great drivers. But when you're alongside Michael Schumacher and Micah Hakkinen, the same with Massa and Alonso whereas I do think Leclerc is a potential champion in the right time I think he's shown very well against Lewis across their year and a half I think he will get his get his moment well guys why don't we talk about Spa the challenge of Spa and I think JP you're the man to talk us through it because I think back to 2017 you flew that year you were in in into Q3 and you were faster than Nico Hülkenberg, your Renault teammate in Q2.

30:56I had him on toast. You did, yeah.

30:59Jolyon Palmer:So what's the secret? I actually wasn't great at Spa, but that weekend, for some reason, I just found the flow. And it's so much about a flow and a rhythm through. The middle sector is the key to it. So the first sector is long straights, it's La Source, and that's it. Middle sector is where you've just got to find a rhythm. There's not really corners where you've got your obvious reference markers. It's a bit more like a high-speed open Suzuka in that sort of regard. Yeah, loads of corners all intertwined. You need to have confidence in the car. You need to have a stable rear end so you can really lean on it and attack.

31:38Jolyon Palmer:And then you're on to a run up to the bus stop where you've just got to have confidence that the car's going to stop when you smash the brakes at about 100 meters. um yeah that weekend in 2017 was i was the seventh fastest driver but my blooming gearbox packed in in q3 so my q2 time would have still stood me in in seventh but i'm glad you remember it tc because many don't two big moments isn't it malaysia 99 palmer's qualifying in 2017 it's all rushing back

32:08James Hinchcliffe:now it's one of those tracks that's a bucket list track for every driver i've never had the the privilege of getting to do a lap around Spa. But it's top of the list. You know, I've now got to drive around Suzuka. That was the other one. But yeah, both of those tracks are just so special. And I think, yeah, you ask racing drivers globally, Spa is going to come up in the top three, I think, well more often than not. That's a 90 % of drivers, I think, would put Spa in the top three. And such a special place, such an old school place, so much character. You know, like JP said, you've got sector one and three kind of just determined by straight line speed and braking performance but then that middle sector is just i mean it's it's poetic it's art it's such a

32:51Jolyon Palmer:beautiful racetrack driving a lap of spar is like an adventure you feel like you're going so far away up into the trees up the camel straight the elevation change is huge uh the cornering is so different as you then come down the hill in that middle sector you sometimes get pockets of rain on some parts of the track and not others you can overtake your heart's thumping as you're coming back towards the bus stop trying to trying to finish the lap it's it is a great lap jp you've been known to be our resident weather expert um what what is the long the long range forecast for spark so i can i can guarantee you a chance of rain tc for either friday or saturday or sunday of belgium could be all three that's what i can guarantee you because by the way it's the belgian Grand Prix and it always rains there at some point my my expert weather app right now says beautiful week in Belgium which comes to an end on Thursday where it gets unsettled Kelsa Priz that's where Formula One rocks in now look one guy we haven't spoken about who's a three-time winner at Spa and a lot of the grandstands are orange because his fans travel all over Europe to support him is of course Max Verstappen he must be in a difficult place going to Spa it's the last two races have been hard for him um guys what's your take on on Red Bull and Spa I would have said on paper they have a chance at Spa based on where they've been the last couple of weekends so Max had power unit issues in uh at Silverstone it was clear in the data so they'd needs to fix that obviously because it's a really power sensitive circuit with that in place i think he should have been not with the mercedes and ferraris but not far away at all and when you see the job he was doing in third it really could have been way more competitive but obviously the bigger picture here now for max is that rear wing because that's partly the package that's finding the performance but now in the last two weekends it's found him in the gravel or the wall so the one track you wouldn't want to go to with a rear wing that you can't be confident of getting the closure properly is Spa because you have so many viciously fast approaches well that they have straight mode enabled and when you turn into Poo on you want to know that that rear is going to stick and if you're not sure you are in big trouble why do you think he's had the crashes and Isaac Hadjar hasn't.

35:19Are they, is it because they do something different under braking for, well, it's always happening in fast corners, isn't it?

35:25James Hinchcliffe:No, that has to be luck of the draw, I would think. I can't imagine there's, you know, any development parts that are happening on that car that's not happening on Hadjar as well. And look, as a driver, you have to just sort of have blind faith that the car is bolted together right and is going to last. You can't have that lingering in the back of your head that, oh, what happens if? When you're on the racetrack, those things just don't exist in your mind. They can't because a failure can happen at any point. Mechanical issues are a part of the sport. Human error is a part of the sport. And so drivers have this unique ability to put the self-preservation gene in the locker and keep your foot stuck in.

36:11James Hinchcliffe:So I think that's the mentality Max has to have. Yes, after the fact, you can be frustrated. You can sit with the team. You can do the postmortem, try to figure out what happened and how to prevent it from happening again. But when you're out on the racetrack, you just you cannot let it affect you. And I don't believe that he will. I don't think he's going to have any reservations because luckily the cars are safe, the tracks are safe. And the risk of anything properly going wrong is still quite low. You talk about his mentality, Max's mentality. I haven't seen him as upset as he was after Silverstone in a long, long time.

36:50It makes me wonder how crucial these next two races, Spa-Hungary, are. Just A, for his championship challenge, or are we already writing that off? But the championship challenge, but also his sort of longer term future.

37:03Jolyon Palmer:The championship challenge is gone. I mean, I'm writing that off. Agreed. I'll look stupid probably in Abu Dhabi when he does it again and we'll all say, oh, he's shown it last year. But come on, there's no chance he's going to be having a championship challenge this year. So then it's just about him believing in the future of the team. There's a lot of people leaving that team. We've spoken about it at length already through this year. GP is a big one that's going. all the major big cocks that were there through his championship winning years they're kind of not really there anymore so lauren meckes has got to convince max that we are still here to win the championship in the next few years he is obviously going to want to see a weekend where he's not backwards into the barriers or the gravel at high speed he's going to want to see performance like actually in austria where he can challenge for a race win again and see upgrades hitting the car and working and then I think he'll be in a much better position for the summer break but until you have that obviously he's going to be frustrated because he's a driver that signs up to win and anything less than that is not great.

38:06Are there any positives to come out of the sort of exodus from Red Bull? Now that seems a bizarre thing to say I know but if you're Laurent Mechiez is it actually long term easier not to have the people who've been there for 20 years who tell you in every debrief, this is how we used to do it. Is it actually easier for him to be able to promote from within, get his own people in the right positions to sort of do it the Laurent Mecquiez way, not the Christian Horner way?

38:35James Hinchcliffe:I think part of it is it affords you the opportunity to see, you know, what other talent you do have in the team. Because if the old guard stays, they're not going anywhere in terms of, you know, it's tough to promote internally, right? When this top level has been there for so long and had all this success. So as a team, you end up identifying, nurturing, breeding these new engineers, strategists, whatever it is. And then eventually all that hard work is for nothing because they go somewhere else because they see that there's a ceiling where they're at because Jonathan Wheatley is still there and GP is still there and Paul Monaghan is still there and all these things.

39:17James Hinchcliffe:So what it does do is it allows Laurent to look within the team and try to identify that next generation. Because for all you know, the next Adrian Newey is at the team and has been for five years, but was never allowed to sort of step up and really show what they've got. Whether or not that pipeline does exist in the team, we'll find out. So it's a double-edged sword, right? You hate to – you've got a winning recipe. You've got a – if it ain't broke, don't fix it. They were winning championships. They're performing well. That's now gone. And so you have to look at the other side, which is it creates this opportunity to find the next one.

39:55And talking of the next one, I find it interesting that Mark Matashitz, son of the late great founder Dietrich Matashitz, founder of Red Bull, was at the Red Bull ring. He was then at Silverstone seven days later with Oliver Mintzlaff, who's now in charge of all things Red Bull on a day to day basis. Now, we never used to see Dietrich at a race apart from at the Red Bull ring. So we're already seeing Mark at more races, taking more of an interest, more of a hands-on role. So it is a changing of the guard. And I just wonder whether the, you know, out with the old, in with the new, purely on a Milton Keynes basis is a good thing.

40:34And I think maybe Max can see that. The word I'm getting from Red Bull is that he's, even though, you know, technically he can walk in terms of contract clauses and things, he's going to stay for 2027 and stick with it and see where they go.

40:48Jolyon Palmer:He's not actually flush with options, it seems, which is strange for someone that pretty much the entire paddock regards as the best driver. But Hinch, when you were in mid-Ohio, everyone was getting very excited over here because there was this breaking news, you know, and all this talk about Max Verstappen to McLaren. Oh, my God, is this really going to happen? It was actually IndyCar news, wasn't it? Nothing to do with Max Verstappen.

41:12James Hinchcliffe:Yeah. A big McLaren signing. Yeah. Scott Dixon and Felix Rosenquist going over. But, yeah, slightly different. But, I mean, that's really, to Julian's point, he doesn't have a lot of options. You've got Kimmy and George, both Mercedes born and bred. You don't, you know, they're dominating. There's no reason that they would want to leave necessarily at the moment. No real reason for anyone to get rid of them. Ferrari, you know, Lewis was kind of the question mark there in the last year. Well, that's not a question anymore. He's going to be there for a minute. McLaren, Lando's, again, born and raised McLaren driver said if ideally said to you, he'd like to end his career there, but maybe for one other team.

41:51James Hinchcliffe:um but realistically you could see him being a lifer at mclaren oscar piastri was the only sort of question mark and it would kind of be i think it was accepted it would kind of be a straight swap in a sense piastri to red bull for step into mclaren but again i i think that mclaren is not in the position they were 12 months ago 24 months ago so it's less appealing for max They didn't have a particularly strong weekend in Silverstone either. And, you know, he just has so much history there. And you have to have some faith that they can get it back, especially if he's there helping steer the ship because he's one of the few of the old guard that's still around.

42:31James Hinchcliffe:So it wouldn't surprise me at all if he announces that he's not just staying, but, you know, staying for the long term.

42:38Jolyon Palmer:Oscar and George seem to be the two guys who might yet change things. kind of for a similar reason really you had oscar so close to the championship last year lando got it and then it feels like lando's carried that momentum into this season as well uh george if he doesn't win the championship or if he doesn't manage to find some form is he going to start to think that this is kimmy's team and we've heard some quite terse radio messages between him and toto now but where does he go because if if max isn't gonna leave george can't

43:09James Hinchcliffe:go anywhere right so it's really all dependent on max leaving so max and george have to get together and be like hey are you unhappy because i'm unhappy you want to do a little deal here

43:17Jolyon Palmer:because otherwise that's how it goes doesn't it though but max if it's only if max goes to either mclaren or to mercedes there's a great vacancy at red bull and and that would then become an option the only thing from i see with mercedes if george were to were to leave and decide he wants to start afresh somewhere else which is a big if do mercedes does toto wolf want to partner your now great talent Kimi Antonelli with Max Verstappen you do now that feels like it's a recipe for disaster now Kimi I think has proven he's he's you know a number one driver he's not about to come in and play second fiddle so that's I think Kimi's almost upped his level to a point that if George goes Max is not the ideal replacement anymore yeah you say recipe for disaster but absolute box office for us can you imagine I'd love it also I have to say I'm I'm I am actually quite impressed with Red Bull.

44:09Jolyon Palmer:Given how many people have left over the years now, they have got a good car. They've started a power unit project from scratch. That's been deemed to be the strongest ICE internal combustion engine of the field. How great is that? Their deployment isn't quite there, so their overall straight line speed isn't amazing. But given how many people have left, given they've got a rookie driver in the car, not a rookie driver, but a new driver in the team who is a second year driver i actually think they're doing well to be this competitive at this stage and the upgrades they have bought are actually pretty tidy apart from not always working and they developed so late into last year that they were on the back foot coming into 26 so they've done every everything you've just said on the back of developing really late into 2025 so so that's their that's their argument to convince max to stay isn't it that look, hey, we're actually doing pretty well considering and the trajectory then is going to be championship contenders again.

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46:45Let's talk some more about McLaren. Last year's Belgian Grand Prix winner, Oscar Piastri. I mean, P11 at Silverstone. Do you think it's going to go any better for either of them in Belgium?

46:58Jolyon Palmer:I think it should. Again, I would say the track should suit them a little more, but they are still struggling with their straight line speed, whether it's deployment, whether it's drag, compared to Mercedes. So on that count, Spa is not going to be great. But the drivers have shown good form there in the past. They shouldn't be less competitive than they were at Silverstone, put it that way. Obviously, Oscar had his mystery front wing issue on the first lap. So that's why he didn't get any points. Lando's pace was OK. He was quicker than Isaac Hadjar in the race. So that's encouraging. But Andrea Stella, the team principal of McLaren, says that they overperformed to get that P4.

47:42That wasn't the pace of the car.

47:44Jolyon Palmer:Yeah, in the same way as everyone overperformed, really, to finish where they did because Kimi dropped down. you had max spin off so basically reliability got them there for other people's issues they actually could have had the third place if the race was restarted as well which would have been an amazing result for them and i lando definitely overperformed in the sprint so i actually think whilst the car's not great he's driving at a very high level at the moment and so i i hope that they can be closer but i just don't see them challenging for for the win and a podium's a long shot if if the others aren't quick enough.

48:20Let's throw it further back to a team that I think has done a phenomenal job in the last five races and that's racing balls you know that that battle for P5 in the constructors championship between Alpine and them is really heating up just one point between them and you've got to say that racing balls have got the faster car. Liam Lawson one of the unsung heroes i feel of 2026 as well any reason to think they can't get another double points finish this

48:53James Hinchcliffe:coming weekend i don't think so i mean the form they've been on unless we hear you know alpine did bring some uh some upgrades to austria i believe that didn't quite hit the way they were hoping so if if those can continue to be developed and tweaked maybe they'll get you know a bit more pace out of that car but you know gasly himself's been doing great colopento has been kind of hot and cold, but with racing bulls, Lawson, I think has had a, you know, a really stellar, consistent, solid season. And then Lindblad for a rookie to come in and be right on his gearbox, really. I mean, they seem to just kind of be one position apart, whether it's qualifying the race, whatever it is, but to be on this run of, of consecutive double points finishes for that team, they are well and truly asserting themselves as best of the rest.

49:40James Hinchcliffe:And yeah, I can't help but think that they're going to leave Belgium with fifth in the constructors.

49:45Jolyon Palmer:A couple of things with racing bulls. So I spoke to Arvid on Thursday of Silverson. I said, if I could give you ninth place, are you taking it for the Grand Prix? And he said, absolutely, I am. That's good points. He ended up getting seventh. So, you know, he still wants the points. But actually, it was even better than he would have taken for the race. I also spoke to Alan Perman on the grid on Sunday. They obviously were starting in the top 10. and I said is this going to be a you know straightforward race for double points he was kind of like yeah should be there's not even the element of playing it down now they know they have the fifth best car they're consistently there he knows that he's got two drivers that are actually putting it together week in week out I don't see it changing for Spa they bought an upgrade package a few races ago and since then they are the fifth best team with a bit of distance is there any chance though that those two guys are going to start tripping over each other like they almost did at the Red Bull ring.

50:38I wonder whether that's going to be the Achilles heel going forward for them. Because both are sort of fighting for their careers, aren't they? Because there's a Red Bull junior, Nikola Solov, winning races in F2, in fact, dominating F2 at the minute. People are saying, you know, has he already got a deal with racing bulls for next year? So if Lawson and Lindblad are fighting for, you know, one seat, it could get pretty spicy there. And that could end up

51:04Jolyon Palmer:taking points away right i quite enjoy the drama of it in the midfield because we've seen now for a couple of races so in austria you had a team orders moment where limblad overtook lawson and then lawson wasn't happy about it and they undercut limblad back basically with the strategy to right the the wrong and then i loved in silverstone the early laps where where arvid got on the radio and said you got to tell liam to speed up he's going too slow just little bits of needle between two drivers who are desperate to show that they're the better one obviously lawson's got the points on the board at the moment he's driving so well limblad for a rookie is doing great but you have got solov putting a huge run together in f2 and if he wins it as a red bull junior well what does he do next so that is always the pressure there it seems really unfair to drop lawson or limblad after what we've seen in the first nine races this year don't you think unfair to not put the f2

52:00James Hinchcliffe:champion in a formula one though no well i mean i feel like we've seen that before and it worked out all right i mean oscar piastri's doing just fine there's only 22 seats right you can't always just assume that the f2 champ gets gets the promotion it's just i find it so funny because i feel like he turned back the clock 12 months and red bull was out of drivers we were trying to figure out how they were going to fill seats who was going to be in the second red bull seat who was going to go where you know thank thank god linblad was there you know in f2 last year and that he's performing the way that he is.

52:31James Hinchcliffe:But there was a moment where they just burned through everybody and were like, wow, their pipeline's not actually as strong as it used to be. And now all of a sudden they've got too many drivers that are performing because Hadjar's doing a great job next to Max. Both the Racing Bulls guys are doing well and you've got one of their juniors in a good position to maybe win the F2 championship. Look, guys, if Racing Bulls are doing a great job, everything they seem to put on that car is working, can we talk about Williams now? and specifically some quotes that Carlos Sainz came up with after the race at Silverstone where he was saying, you know, he's frustrated, concerned was another word he used because they put a new front wing on the FW48 at Silverstone and they just didn't get the results that they were expecting.

53:15You know, there's a big B-spec car due for Baku in September. Is it as bad as Carlos is making out? Is he sort of putting pressure on them because he realizes that he actually doesn't have many options if he wanted to go anywhere else?

53:31Jolyon Palmer:On everything, really, they're underperforming. They have the power unit that's winning the championship. Everyone else is doing an all right job with that power unit. It seems to be the class of the field in terms of your combination of electric power and combustion engine. Alpine have risen to the front in their first year with that. Williams have had an old partnership with Mercedes. That is no excuse. That is also partly why Carlos went to Williams when he had offers from Alpine, from Audi. He's a driver in demand. He's a race winner. He's a seriously intelligent guy that's trying to be a leader in the team.

54:06Jolyon Palmer:And he's just getting nowhere with them. The upgrades, I mean, I remember James Vowles in Miami was saying we've basically fixed the car on paper. We just need to then bring the parts to the car and we'll see the performance come. We're down to weight on paper. Great. But we need to put the parts on the car when the cost cap allows and we'll get there. So then they bring upgrades and they're still languishing with two drivers that should be fighting for points every week. You'd have thought they'd at least be able to upgrade it quickly. And by the summer, they'd be back in towards the midfield.

54:40Jolyon Palmer:But they're actually not really getting much closer on the whole. They obviously have the odd weekend where they're able to wrangle a point or two. But I think if you're Sainz and if you're Albin, you're miffed with this because everything should be in place to put this together. And it's just not coming for them. And the long straights of Spa will make no difference, right? Well, it should help. But, you know, Spa and Silverstone aren't massively different now because Silverstone is similar power sensitive now, is similarly difficult on energy deployment. Spar's more in that direction. Cornering profiles are slightly similar.

55:22Jolyon Palmer:You've got sort of long, fast corners, a little bit like Barcelona. Doesn't seem to be great for Williams. So they were actually pretty solid in Monaco, where you had tight, low-speed, short-radius corners. But the long, fast stuff, they're hauling still some weight around with not enough downforce. So if you were Williams, if you were James Vowles making this decision, Would you be spending that money on a B-spec car for Baku or would you just write it off?

55:49James Hinchcliffe:I feel like it's so early in a rule cycle that you're learning so much on the racetrack, right? So I think it's a little bit different than, say, the position they were in last year where, you know, are you going to spend money to develop a car where, you know, none of these developments are going to transfer to next year? And they made that decision early to pivot everything to 26. I still think that for where we are in this rule set, there's a lot to be learned and testing is so limited. Your wind tunnel time is limited. Your CFD runs are limited. All these things are limited. The racetrack is a testbed.

56:23James Hinchcliffe:You can go now with the mentality of, okay, we're writing off the year in terms of, you know, hoping for X, Y, Z result and really just use these weekends to develop and start getting the philosophies and the setup direction that we need to start making the 27 car.

56:40Jolyon Palmer:But it's not good enough, is it? Because they've been doing this for the 26 car for the last two years. So just to say, guys, don't worry, we're going to do 27 instead. Bore off. You said that about this year and we're rubbish. I think if you're a driver, you want to get performance on the car and see something tangible, not just the hope of next year being right and wait and wait and wait. Aston Martin, they look shambolic at the moment, Aston Martin. This upgraded package that I think is coming for Budapest and then some Honda upgrades post-summer break, hopefully will deliver a huge amount.

57:17Jolyon Palmer:Obviously, that's the direction they've taken. And you can understand their position a little bit more than Williams because they have no chance to score. But I just think as a driver, especially with Williams, if they brought a few tenths to the car, they could fight again in the midfield. Put it on the car. Let's see it. Come on then. What are our predictions? Who wants to go first? Probably not me because I said Max was going to win the British Grand Prix and he ended up in a gravel trap. I'm going to say that George wins in Belgium. He's had a few good races there in the past. So I'm going to say somehow George wins.

57:51Jolyon Palmer:I don't know how, but I think it's a rear, rear guard drive. But JP, how? Given everything we've said in this pod about the rise and rise of Kimi Antonelli, where is suddenly the win for George Russell coming from? So I don't really know TC. Kimi accidentally retires. Is that what happens?

58:07James Hinchcliffe:No. Because he really wants to win his house back.

58:13Jolyon Palmer:I'm under pressure here. Right, so every bit of logic says that Kimi will go there and just be quicker because he's been quicker for a long time. I don't know. I just feel something in the air. There's going to be a great tussle between the two Mercedes. I think George has got potential to be closer in qualifying. We've actually seen him do some good qualifying performances. And then the overtake mode will be really powerful in the race. It could be a bit more like a Montreal-style race where if you can stay within a second, you get constant chances to overtake, a big fight. And then maybe I'm just hopeful on George's part that he can get back on top of it.

58:49Jolyon Palmer:But logic says Kimi, but I'm going to say, for the sake of a bold ambition here, George Russell wins the race. From Kimi.

58:58James Hinchcliffe:from lewis okay hinge kimmy george lewis for all the reasons that you just said kimmy should win i'm gonna go you're gonna stick to that yeah i'm gonna stick to it um i i agree with you that george is gonna have his weekends um but you know just the the way the racing gods work kimmy's had a rough run of luck i think it's gonna be a straightforward weekend for him clean consistent and you know quick as he has been so i think and i think mercedes will have enough of an advantage that uh that ferrari will be there thereabouts but not the mix for the win so for me it's kimmy george lewis these predictions this is all based on a on a dry race right if it rains yeah on the

59:40Jolyon Palmer:one hand the chassis the power unit performance will be way less relevant or everything we've said would be out of the window in terms of your energy management all of that because you're on full throttle way less you're on full throttle later you need downforce in the wet the only thing is Ferrari have had a long time without wet weather performance obviously the regs are completely different now on paper you'd say Ferrari should have a chance in the wet but I don't know if their how their design philosophies haven't haven't worked out over multiple rule sets with that TC you got I've got to press you for a prediction here you delay well I'm actually gonna go with um the man Hinch love George to get it uh together but I think I think it's going to be Kimi.

1:00:22It's going to be a Mercedes one, two, if it's dry. Kimi from George. I think there's going to be seven seconds between them at the flag. And then I think, is that a new? Very precise. Very precise.

1:00:33James Hinchcliffe:Just the precision of it. Yeah. Yeah.

1:00:36Jolyon Palmer:I didn't realize we had to give gaps as well.

1:00:38James Hinchcliffe:He'll complete the race in one hour, 42 minutes and 38. No, 37 seconds. And I think we could see Charles Leclerc on the podium again. He's a sort of Spa specialist. Look at everything he did in the junior formulas. He got his first ever Grand Prix winner course back in 2019 at Spa as well. On a bit of a roll. So it's Kimi, George, Schal for me.

1:01:03Jolyon Palmer:Interestingly, this was Kimi's, I would say it was his nadir last year, wasn't it? True. It was his lowest ebb of last season. So if your predictions are right and he turns it around, that'll be full circle. Him at Spa, year on year, rolling away with the championship. there we go well guys thank you both very much great to chat so jp i'll see you at spa will i i'll see you then see you at spa and hinch you're back for hungry aren't you yeah we'll see you guys in budapest all right guys thank you both very much and f1 nation will of course return next monday where we'll see if any of our predictions come true now in the meantime why not listen to F1 legend Giancarlo Fisichella on F1 Beyond the Grid.

1:01:46He talks about his countryman Kimi, and you won't be surprised to know that he's a big fan, and his former teammate Fernando Alonso, and one-time rival Lewis Hamilton as well. So that's F1 Beyond the Grid. And on the latest episode of F1 Explains, 1996 world champion Damon Hill joins Christian Hugill on the Silverstone stage to answer your questions about Formula One. But that's it for now. Thank you very much for listening. F1 Nation is produced by Formula One and Audioboom Studios.

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