Will Kimi or Ferrari be home heroes? Can McLaren challenge? - Italian GP Preview

25:11Jolyon Palmer:been performing at that and actually when when he if he watches the race back then he'll have seen that I think it was one or two laps that he was left out behind Charles losing time but also Ferrari were actually telling Charles to pit and and Charles himself wasn't very happy at that point and he continued for another lap before pitting and getting out of the way of Lewis. So there was a little bit of confusion on his teammates' radio as well, which, again, you could see, I don't think Ferrari actually compromised him too much in the grand scheme. So what about performance? I think many of us thought Ferrari would be more competitive than they were in Hungary and Zanvoort.

25:52So what's the outlook for Monza? Well, it's interesting, right?

25:57James Hinchcliffe:Because they've been competitive at tracks that maybe we weren't expecting them to be. And then vice versa, maybe a little bit off the pace at some tracks that we kind of thought they were going to be right up front. You know, I think of Silverstone and even Spa, they were decent. And, you know, you're heading to Monza, big, big horsepower track. They seem to have found something in that department. They always seem to have a little bit something special there, don't they? I mean, they are usually competitive, even in seasons when they're not that competitive. Other places, they seem to have focused.

26:30James Hinchcliffe:It's like they build their car around Monza and they're like, okay, we'll figure the rest out as we go. So, I mean, cautiously optimistic for the Tifosi that they can have a strong weekend. It's, you know, again, they didn't qualify particularly well at Spa, if I remember, but they were decent in the race. Well, Henson, the word on the street is that there's going to be a little engine tickle for Ferrari in Monza, so that should help. And an engine penalty for Antonelli. So you're taking one of the main protagonists and chucking him a few places back, at the very least. well it'll be fascinating to see what ferrari do and charles claire is my guest on this week's f1 beyond the grid podcast we talk about a load of stuff including what it's like being a ferrari driver at monitor can there be a better feeling as a racing driver i doubt it we also talked about why he's committed his future to the team and how he bounced back from a slump in form to win at Silverstone earlier this year but I also asked Charles whether Ferrari have got what it takes to challenge Mercedes for the championship this season this championship will be one with upgrades the upgrades are so powerful with these cars we've got a lot less downforce than we used to in the past so every point of downforce you add to this car has got a much bigger influence on on how the car feels like on track and so the pecking order can change so quickly one way or another so I'm very much focused race by race and not really thinking about the long-term picture about how if we've got a real shot with that with that championship but uh i mean surely until it's not finished i'll keep believing in it and we'll see how it goes thoughts sensible opinions and

28:16Jolyon Palmer:thoughts you know upgrades that we've already seen them this year being so powerful mercedes have gone from looking like they were absolute shoe-ins to being caught and not winning what they've won two of the last six Grand Prix so I just I can see why everyone's just saying next race because you don't know what's going to come in in three races time I think the Mercedes upgrade that we're expecting for I don't know if it's Baku or Malaysia I think that'll be their second upgrade which will be a big package the first one was Canada which took them well clear of the field again if Mercedes under deliver with their next package then it really could be game on but they've had a long time to put something more on the car and charl talking upgrades ferrari done a good job clearly mclaren have as well we're waiting to see really what mercedes can do well at least i think charl's problems if we can call them that you know when he was unhappy with the car earlier in the year they seem to be behind him now yeah he seems to be a little bit more sorted

29:15James Hinchcliffe:with the car uh seems a bit more comfortable we're not having the braking conversations on the radio that we were hearing, you know, in kind of that the first half of the season. And, you know, I agree. I think the general sentiment is correct. But at the same time, I think Mercedes is going to win this championship, and I think they're going to win it off the base of a phenomenal car to start and not upgrades necessarily because they've been out upgraded up to this point. You know, I think I read something, a comment maybe from George about how we don't have the money to upgrade at the rate the other teams are doing.

29:47James Hinchcliffe:We've heard Toto Wolff say, how are Ferrari bringing all these upgrades? It almost seems like Mercedes put more resource into the start car and had less wiggle room for upgrades. And the other teams have sort of been the opposite approach. Again, it looks like Mercedes is going to come out on top of that and that their strategy was the right one if that was intentional or not. Yeah, I think he's right. I do think that he is performing at a good level and he seems to be more comfortable. And it's great just because the team's doing well. You've got two teammates that are pushing each other. They didn't have that last year in the same way.

30:18James Hinchcliffe:They've cleaned up a lot of the mistakes procedurally, but it's still going to be a big ask. I'm not sure upgrades are going to be enough for them at this point. Right, well, let's talk Mercedes now. Hinch, you referenced the Kimi engine penalty that's coming for Monza. Can we talk about the timing of that? Data-approved. Data-approved engine penalty. But, I mean, can he still score big points at home? I mean, you know, of all the races, Kimi Antonelli wants to win this year. I think Monaco was probably pretty high on his list, but Monza surely was the one he wanted to win. Can he still do it with an engine penalty?

30:58James Hinchcliffe:Yeah, absolutely. You know, he is driving so well. That car is so strong. We think that this track is going to suit their package, especially on the energy management side, as well as anybody, better than anybody. And I mean, how many times did we see this in 23, right? When Max had to start further back, he could drive up from 14th at spot, still win. When the car is that good and the driver is performing at that level and at that track, there's a reason that they're strategically taking an engine penalty at Monza. I think it could add to the story. It could add to the lore. If he just won that race from pole, it would be amazing.

31:35James Hinchcliffe:But if he qualifies pole, has to start 10th, and still wins it, it would be even more incredible, wouldn't it? It'd be such a beautiful story. And he'd really crush George Russell if he did that.

31:46Jolyon Palmer:That's the thing that I was thinking. I mean, he could win it because of the way that he's been driving. I think Mercedes are the surefire favourites for Monza still. But when you reference Max's sort of comeback wins, that's largely against Checo, isn't it? Who was a lot further away from Max's pace than George's off Kimi. And George was better in Zanvoort. I know he still didn't put the race together. he had two bad first laps that set him apart and his race pace wasn't quite as good as Kimi's either but I don't think in a clean race Kimi will come from 10th or 11th to to beat George if George is anywhere near form from from position so I think that's probably the the difference but you are absolutely right if he does then it requires a clean race that's the thing you never know and and the strategy can be different with strategy differences comes safety car involvements it's going to be tough on components across the board power units are going to be singing yeah you know reliability is not going to be easy at Monza and if Kimi wins in Monza with a grid penalty he is champion I'll go as far as saying that it'll be such a crushing blow he will have won his home race with a load of overtaking huge aplomb and it will suck the life out of George to not take points out of him in Monza George has to win this when JP you've already referenced how different the car feels at monza in low downforce trim if you've been struggling with the feel and the balance of your car in the way that george russell has so far this year how nervous is he going to be coming into this weekend i know he'll have done loads of laps on the simulator back at brackley but do you think it could expose some of those weaknesses again because the car feels so different here i was trying to think which way around it goes so on paper you could be right he's not happy i was speaking to the mercedes guys in in the summer silverstone time when he was not happy with the power unit they were saying it's a little bit george's driving as well and they're saying he's just not happy right on the edge of the car in the same way kimmy is to he will hook it up but he's he's not feeling the the grip of the car and the love from the mercedes so obviously you take away a load of downforce from that it doesn't bode well but you could see it the other way whereas Kimi's feeling the love of a high down force Mercedes and you're going to take away a load of grip from him so maybe you know is it actually going to be a car that's in a different window that might suit George a little better and Kimi will be further away from a car that he's been really honed in with in these these higher grip higher downforce circuits where George has just been a little bit adrift of so I don't know which way around that would go I don't think George will be running scared at all for Monza I think he was generally upbeat in in Zandvoort he knows Kimi has a grid drop he knows that he's got a golden shot to back up what was a solid weekend in Zandvoort still he out qualified Kimi he took sprint pole won the sprint if he didn't get such bad starts in the race possibly he can actually beat Kimi in the race the don't think the pace difference was enough for Kimi just to blast past him so I think George will be thinking again it's now or never and I'm sure Kimi is completely focused he said after the sprint didn't he in Zandvoort that it had been a wake-up call so far up to that point in the weekend I think maybe he'd come back from the summer break was was feeling very relaxed and I think it was just as his words a wake-up call that you have to stay focused and you have to keep striving for perfection.

35:25James Hinchcliffe:Yeah, I mean, it's easy to, you know, as a driver, get into a mindset, especially for a young driver that hasn't been in this position at this level. If you're leading the championship by the margin that he is, you can get into this mentality of, oh, well, I must be doing something right because of where I'm at. I'm going to keep doing that. But if you keep doing the same thing, you go backwards, right? If you're not moving forwards, you're going backwards. And so maybe it was a little bit of that. It's like, even with as well as things are going, as well as I'm driving, you cannot forget that every time you get into a race car, there is something to learn.

36:00James Hinchcliffe:There is something you can do better. There's no such thing as a perfect lap. You've got to keep pushing because especially when you've won as much as you have in a season, as Kimmy has, it really starts to piss all the other drivers off and they're working even harder. They're getting motivated by his success and you've got to make sure you stay on top of everything. This episode is sponsored by Indeed. Building a great team is never easy. If you're a small business, hoping the right people see your job posting isn't the best growth strategy. When the pressure's on and you need the right hire, this is a job for sponsored jobs.

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39:09so what about aston martin fernando alonso's one at monza before so he's a bit of a darling of the tifosi and he's just got aston martin's second points finish of the season after he finished p9 at zanvor of course they had the the aerodynamic upgrade came uh at hungary just before the summer break. There were a few additions to that at Zanvoort. And then, of course, it was the Honda power unit upgrade that came to Zanvoort as well. What did you make of the progress of Aston last time out?

39:44Jolyon Palmer:Honestly, I was really disappointed in them. I was really disappointed for so much of the weekend because we spoke on the preview pod, didn't we? Could they even get close to Q3? This upgrade has got to be the one. Honda got so much to prove. And it fell so flat for much of the weekend. I know Fernando had issues on Friday. They didn't have any pace. Both drivers were really pretty downbeat, especially Lance was as gloomy as I've heard Lance. And that's saying something, actually. So he was really downbeat. Drivability was a problem. And they were still saying that they didn't have enough power.

40:19Jolyon Palmer:That's not great. But obviously, Fernando is then out of absolutely nowhere. We barely saw him on Sunday because there was so much going on elsewhere. and you look up and you're like, hang on, he's one-stopping his way to some points here. And for me, obviously it does show that Aston, they are slowly making progress because other cars had a lot of dramas, some crashes, spins, hefty penalties for Colopinto, for Lindblad. And it really, it opened the door for something magic to come. And Fernando just absolutely nailed it. One-stopper, great strategy from Aston. The pace of the car is closer. So this was never possible pre-upgrades, pre-Budapest.

41:00Jolyon Palmer:They would have still been done and they were sort of two laps down, weren't they? So it shows the progress in the end. I just want to see still a little bit more. I think it took all of Fernando's driving with a great strategy, great execution, to snaffle a ninth place on a day where loads of drivers had problems. And what does it mean? What does it mean for Monza for those guys? Do you think it's going to be even harder there? They're in trouble, aren't they, with the straight line speed, I'd have thought.

41:31James Hinchcliffe:You hear that assessment from Zanvoort, right? I mean, neither driver got into Q2. And in the race, it took this confluence of a kind of outside-the-box strategy, brilliantly executed by Fernando, as you'd expect, some issues and some trouble from other cars. This was not a qualified 12th race-your-way-to-points kind of day. So barring a similar set of circumstances is in an even more extreme set of circumstances in Monza, just because of the reliance on the power unit. I don't see that being anywhere near as fruitful a Sunday as what they managed in Zandberg. Now, the other thing that might impact Fernando's performance at Monza is whether he's got over what happened there nine years ago.

42:20What's Parmen he's doing?

42:21James Hinchcliffe:He needs to give me back the position. got the chicken.

42:25Jolyon Palmer:Parma has a five second penalty. Five seconds is a joke. A joke. Yeah, we know, Fernando. We can't do anything apart from giving everything maximum pace. What a joke. Five seconds. What a joke. Where's Parma? Fernando, Parma has retired. Parma.

42:48James Hinchcliffe:Karma for Parma. I don't know. It sounded like he was more angry at the FIA for it only being a five-second penalty than really you for doing anything wrong.

42:57Jolyon Palmer:You know what the funny thing is with that? Number one, he had no straight-line speed. This was peak McLaren Honda, and I was trying to come past him. I think I had a pit lane start or something, and he was obviously defending like a tiger. So in the end, I got halfway around the outside of him, and I cut the chicane. I would say he forced me off. The stewards on that occasion did not agree with me, and they gave me a five-second penalty. And you know what? I didn't even care. because I pulled away from him and pitted and came out ahead. And it was such a tiny blip in my race, this moment passing Fernando, getting a five-second penalty.

43:31Jolyon Palmer:I'd forgotten about it. He was fixating on it. TC, I had no idea. So about 15 laps later, I've retired with a hydraulic problem. So I'm out the car. I've gone to go and do my media stuff. Oh, another tough day. Reliability's no good, all the rest of it. and then i've literally i've i've got an ice cream out of the back of the canteen sunday afternoon i'm like i've worked hard i'm gonna treat myself i'm literally munching through a magnum and the tv screen's on in reno and i just hear fernando where is palma i'm like ice cream in my mouth in the in the thing like what this is really been affected by this i didn't give a single monkeys about it

44:13James Hinchcliffe:it would have been so good it would have been so good if the cameras had caught you in the garage yeah exactly when it's like karma you're just like

44:22Jolyon Palmer:i couldn't believe that he was as enraged as he was but it is everything about fernando alonso that such a silly meaningless thing for about 14th position had really really got under his skin did you ever talk to him about it no no no no we because you know what we'd already had a big old we had like an hour-long drivers meeting in monza because he'd forced me off the road in belgium the week before and there was a big hoo-ha all the drivers were there and it was like who's on palmer's side who's on alonso's side is this fair is this not it was one of those long ones where everyone decided they were going to wade in on whether it was basically fair to be shoved off the road and then after that we had the next one and i was like i'm not i was just i'm just gonna i'm just gonna cut the chicane let's just see if that works and um no i didn't i didn't pick it up i didn't i didn't fancy getting on the wrong side of him actually after that jp you've just hit the nail on the head and we now understand why he was fixating on it because of what had happened in the driver's briefing surely probably probably it's still baffled me but it had been eating him all weekend well you know what the thing was with that driver's briefing i'm really going into depth on this now but it was the same race as oh no it was the race after i remember hulk and kmag in budapest and oh yeah kmag gave him one of those so that's why we were having a big existential what is allowed and what's not because kmag had just done that and fernando and i think he got a penalty for it and then fernando didn't and we just had this massive like the longest driver's briefing ever and then like 17 laps into the grand prix we're at it again i was like each to their own so monza wasn't great to you in formula one but i do remember you winning a gp2 race there is that right i think one of my great weekends started last in the feature race got to eighth which gave me the sprint pole and converted it for a win save my bacon well remembered tc well there you go mate that's what won you the title that year but great insight into drivers briefings and everything jp thank you now there's one last i suppose news topic that we should cover ahead of the monza weekend because last week franco colopinto was confirmed as an alpine driver for 2027 given everything that's happened in the driver market over the last month i guess not that

46:58James Hinchcliffe:surprising hench would you agree with that yeah absolutely i mean um there were there was kind of one big domino that that had to sort itself out and then once that did the rest fell into place and it's not even just a function of no you know no obvious successor there he's doing a good job he's he's closed the gap to gasly he's uh he's closer more consistently he's not making as many mistakes. It takes sometimes, you know, more than one season, more than one full season for, for a driver to unlock their, their true potential. And I think sometimes this sport can be a little, you know, a little unforgiving in, in allowing drivers that time he's getting better as he, as he gets more experience.

47:38James Hinchcliffe:So I think it's a sound move for Alpine to kind of just keep the consistency. Continuity is always a good thing in, in motor sports if, everyone's performing so not surprising and uh understandable move and that battle in the constructors championship between alpine and racing bulls for p5 it's it's it's hammer and tongs isn't it there's only three points separating them so i guess you want a distraction of you know is colopinto gonna stay or go you want him performing at his best to win that battle so

48:10Jolyon Palmer:get him signed up i think we always expected him to stay i think he probably expected to stay as well but yeah until it until it's on paper then you you can never be sure and they're going to need his points if they want to beat racing bulls i think still think racing bulls they've got the advantage even with gasly had had alpine upgrades they'll both get them for for monza but yeah they need to be they need to be really on form to beat these racing bulls guys well guys thank you both very much can't wait to go to monza hinch i'm sorry you're not going to be there with us me too

48:41James Hinchcliffe:Me too. Lots of pasta. But we'll see you soon after. We'll see you shortly afterwards. Look, last thing is some predictions. Hinch, you came closest in Zanvold, getting three out of the four correct. No sprint in Monza. Who's going first? Hinch, as you got it more right than the rest of us last time. What have you got? So I do agree with Julian that it's going to be tough with an engine penalty to beat George. Mercedes will be the car to beat. so I think George wins the Grand Prix. Ferrari and Charles always have something special at Monza, so he's P2, and Kimi will rebound from his engine penalty to complete the podium.

49:20Jolyon Palmer:Man, we're two alike, Hinch. That was annoying. Is that just because he did so well in Zandvoort? We're all with Hinch, right? When you said that, I was like, I'll just copy him, and then he just said what I was going to say anyway, but I'll mix it up then, and I will throw this as being the curveball that opens the door slightly for the championship then. And Kimi has a problem coming through the field. So let's say, I still think George wins and let's go Ferrari 2-3, trying to chase him down. Hopefully a little bit more power for them and they can do it. Which order are the Ferraris in? Charles Lewis.

49:58Interesting. Why that way round?

50:01Jolyon Palmer:Just Charles' track record in recent times at Monza, won the race a couple of years ago, seems to be fighting his feet a little bit more as well i would i think they'll be close but that's where i would where i'll go for well i i always think there's jeopardy at monzo the chicane the run to the first chicane is always a bit mad on the opening lap isn't it and i think i can feel some jeopardy coming on and i'm just going to hang it out there and say kimmy antonelli for the win oh wow i thought you're going to go the other way with the jeff i thought you're back me. No, no, I just, I think, I think there's zero pressure on him now that he's got that engine change.

50:40And I think, you know, the wake up call that he talked about at Zandvoort is, he no longer needs it, needs to kick up the bum. He's performing at such a high level. So, and I think he could do something amazing at home. But you're right about Ferrari. I think they're going to be better than perhaps they look on paper. And I'm going to put Lewis ahead of Schal. So it's Antonelli, the Italian driver alongside the Italian team on the podium. That's how it looks.

51:09Jolyon Palmer:Forza. Forza. That would be a party. That would be a party. You sold me, though, with the narrow run to the first corner as well. Because I've remembered it's a long run, and that is not somewhere I want to be in the mid-pack. There's always someone bumps the front wing. Someone will be going through the runoff area. He's got to get through the first corner first. So Kimi's going to lose his nose. Is that what we're now saying? I'm going to justify him not being on the podium because he snagged someone at Turn 1 from the mid-pack. All right, guys. Thank you both very much. Great to speak to you as ever.

51:46Now, if you have F1 TV or Apple TV in the US, you can watch every moment of the Italian Grand Prix live. Plus, download the F1 app or follow us on social media for news, highlights and analysis. this and don't forget to check out that F1 Beyond the Grid with Charles Leclerc this Wednesday and you can watch it on the F1 YouTube channel as well and we will of course be back on Monday with our review of the Italian Grand Prix and that Kimi Antonelli win only joking speak to you then thanks very much for listening F1 Nation is produced by Formula One and Audioboom Studios

52:36This episode is sponsored by Honda. Since its first Formula One victory in the 1965 Mexico Grand Prix, Honda has always taken what's learned on the track and used it to build better cars for everyone. From pushing limits in F1 to engineering the next generation of hybrids like the Prelude Hybrid and Civic Sedan Hybrid, Honda proves that racing doesn't just inspire innovation, it drives it. And that idea of taking lessons from the racetrack and applying them to road cars has always been a part of Honda's DNA. Decades of engineering in the demanding world of Formula 1 have helped shape the performance and efficiency you see in Honda's road cars today.

53:20And now that same thinking is shaping the next generation of hybrids as well. Cars like the 2026 Prelude Hybrid and Civic Hybrid show that electrification can be both efficient and genuinely fun to drive. The 2026 Prelude Hybrid and Civic Sedan Hybrid are engineered for fun. From the racetrack to your driveway. Learn more about the Prelude and Civic and the latest innovations at Honda.com. Did you know that driving under the influence of marijuana is illegal? Driving high will get you a DUI. And if you're wondering if law enforcement can tell you're driving high, well, everyone else can. Friends?

54:00I can tell you drove high. Parents? I can tell when you drive high. Relatives? I can tell. You drove here high, didn't you? So what makes you think law enforcement can't? I can tell. If you feel different, you drive different. Drive high, get a DUI. Paid for by NHTSA. Stop the podcast! Stop the podcast! Hi everybody, just to let you know this episode of Fish is sponsored by TV Licensing. Yes, TV Licensing. What are you watching on TV, Andy? I have been watching a show that's called Two Weeks in August. Okay. Despite it being July at the time of recording. Oh, you don't have to watch TV shows in the time that their name references.

54:42No, absolutely. I watch The Darling Buzz of May in winter. Anyway, Two Weeks in August. It's a really good series. It's set on a lovely Mediterranean holiday. And it's a group of old mates from uni who've gathered together. Some of them have got kids. Some of them haven't. Some of them have been going through big life events. And it's one of those amazing pressure cooker series where things just get more and more and more tense. Oh, those stressful ones. I love it. I love it. I love my comedy, I've got to say. So I've been watching Android, which is Diane Morgan's new thing. And I absolutely love it.

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