Fantasy Football - 10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your League - Podcast for 8/13

13:49Mike Wright:up the depth chart aj brown not participating in joint practices again it's been a hamstring injury I hate this. Yoo-hoo. I had moved A.J. Brown up, and he instantaneously got hurt because I was really excited about the potential of that passing game for both guys to really improve. I'd like to see him get back to practice because he's missing. And he got back to limited.

14:11Jason Moore:He got back to limited, but these are joint practices today, so it sounds scary to me when I first read it where it was like, if you get back limited, like I think I can start working my way back from the hamstring injury, and then you don't practice. Because it's like, did you pull something? But this is now joint practices where maybe he's back in a limited fashion, but he's not going to go all out against another team, and that's probably for the best.

14:34Mike Wright:Shadour Sanders, oblique injury when throwing, so he's going to be possibly missing more time, and that's a huge issue because he needs the preseason games to put it on display.

14:45Andy Holloway:I had seen a blurb of the Browns of like, Dylan Gabriel will start if he's healthy enough. Otherwise, it's going to be Shadour Sanders. I don't know what they'll do if they're both hurt.

14:56Mike Wright:What did they sign? Huntley, was it? Oh, did they pick? They have six quarterbacks on the roster. That is not a joke. They have six. Really going the shotgun approach. And I don't know what they're going to do. Brees Hall, he had a comment on the Kyron and James Cook contracts.

15:12Andy Holloway:Don't forget, Deshaun Watson's still on that team. Yes, he is.

15:14Mike Wright:He's one of the six. Brees Hall said of the Kyron and James Cook contracts, they've done more than me. They're in better situations. I feel like I'm just as talented but those guys deserve their payday and what they got

15:26Andy Holloway:that is really sad it's a disgruntled player he is not gruntled this isn't a compliment sandwich because it starts off or is it? they've done more than me they're in a better situation I feel like I'm just as talented

15:41Mike Wright:but they deserve their payday it's a nice thing to say

15:43Andy Holloway:I like that they've been in better situations he's just taking a shot at his own team he does feel like

15:50Mike Wright:a player that is on the outside of the inner circle, but at the same time, you know, you talked about it, Justin Fields throwing to the running back position. There's still a world where he's highly productive, and they're going to play the best players, so it's not the world we're drafting him in, where he's going right now, but it's still possible for him to be productive.

16:08Jason Moore:At least you know he is playing for a contract, and he knows he's out there right now this year, and what he does, what he puts on the field will determine what his market value is because he knows he's going to market. And so that's how I want my fantasy players. Hungry? Yeah.

16:27Mike Wright:For money?

16:27Jason Moore:Hungry for money.

16:28Mike Wright:That was News & Notes sponsored by Progressive Insurance. Quote today at Progressive.com. Progressive Calvary Insurance Company affiliates and third-party insurers not available in all states or situations, coverage subject to policy terms, limits, and conditions. Well, we'll take a quick early break because I just want to get into the tips and tricks, which we'll do in just a minute.

16:51Mike Wright:All right, Foot Clan, whether you are on the go or at home, T-Mobile, well, they're built to keep you connected wherever you're scouting your fantasy team. And that on-the-go part, that is important. With America's Best Network, you'll be connected to the latest news and player projections so when you're on the clock, you can draft a winning team. I can think of so many situations where that element of being connected while you're on the go is fundamental to fantasy football success. I'm in the midst of multiple leagues right now where I am responding to trade offers. We are massaging the trade offer.

17:21Mike Wright:We want to make sure that I'm the one that gets the player, not another player manager in our league. So trade offers, when you're on the go, all the news that's breaking so you don't make a mistake. And my favorite thing, maybe I'll mention it. Look, you're sitting and you have a quiet moment somewhere out and about. You want to jump in the UDK. We've got the player profiles. You can watch all of those in there with T-Mobile. You can jump in on the player projections and our stat projections and all the 130 ,000 words of content. Again, T-Mobile making that easy to do. Every bit of news. Things are changing all the time.

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19:31Mike Wright:All right. Like I said, this is the 11th time that we have done a Tips and Tricks episode. There is a digital copy of our 55. Did you get it? I don't know. I guess I thought one of you guys were going to do it. You got your hands on the box. It's on me. 55 Tips and Tricks.

19:51Jason Moore:It's like a pump fake.

19:53Mike Wright:I'm going to push it. Why aren't you pushing the button? I'm going to push it. My finger over the button is never prohibited or stops anybody from hitting anything ever. Thank you. But that digital book is available for all Foot Clan members at JoinTheFoot.com. It's time to get into it. Tips and Tricks.

20:18Mike Wright:Well, here we go. We are into our top 10 tips and tricks to win your league for 2025. starting with number 10. I'm going to go with this. It is, here's my tip. Grab a few mystery bags. All right, grab a few mystery bags. My son in the last several weeks has gotten me into Pokemon card collecting in a very small way. Ah, collecting. That's what they call it. And so we open these packs together, and sometimes, you know, the expression that Mike brings up all the time, maybe it's a boat. Sometimes you get a hit, right? And my tip for fantasy players today, I alluded to it last week, grab a few mystery bags, and what I'm talking about is rookie players from round six to the end of the draft, okay?

21:14Mike Wright:Because that is where you're getting into a place in fantasy football where sometimes it feels like the right thing to do is dial in some veteran known names and commodities that seem like they're going to maybe be able to bounce back. And I'll just highlight last year what those names were. It was Nick Chubb in the eighth, Zach Moss in the eighth, Marquise Hollywood Brown in the eighth, Javante Williams in the eighth. But sitting there in the middle of the eighth round as well, lad mcconkey all right and that's what we're talking about with the mystery bag opportunity that you have in drafts this is something i've done more and more over the years in part by necessity sometimes you play in leagues you trade away earlier round picks you have less opportunity in the middle rounds and i want somebody that is going to give me a chance at being a true hit last year brock bowers is another example this was a late seventh round pick people were dialing in Kyle Pitts ahead of him and a bunch of other opportunities.

22:18Mike Wright:Every year there are players like this. We just don't know what the rookie is going to be. And not every rookie is going to work out. But time and time again, we see these later round opportunities. You know, Jalen Waddell was a ninth round pick when he came out and had an over 100 catch rookie season. Justin Jefferson was an 11th round pick. We were worried about him. It was Ola B.C. Johnson, and he was behind other players in the depth chart due to the preseason. Brian Thomas Jr. your last year was a ninth round pick you know you have rookie running backs in you know historically david johnson jeremy hill lev bell antonio gibson miles sanders kenneth walker these were all players drafted outside the first six rounds in lieu of some of these old heads that we think are going to bounce back and give you an opportunity on average three rookie wide receivers per year this is the big stat here that i want to have stand out for you on average three rookie wide receivers per year drafted round six or later end up as top 24 wide receivers i want a chance at a boat i want a chance it's a gambling man i want i want to gamble because the upside is so tremendous i need a we play to win mike has been on the don't play scared situation you're not going to hit on every one of those players but when you hit that hit can be very very valuable it can it can bring you forward several rounds of adp value more than these other players that are drafted in the later rounds this year a good example tyler warren's a ninth round pick you're going to dial in tyler warren you're going to dial in somebody like dalton kinkade in the 10th round like there are opportunities to or jason would probably say look tyler warren a few picks after evan ingram do we know what evan ingram's ceiling kind of is right does he still have it at 31 years old and i'll be clear like addison was another situation as a rookie jordan addison was like a ninth round pick sometimes you're going to get trailing burks and i'm sorry for you if that happens but sometimes you get addison sometimes you open the mystery box and it's something four five six seven rounds better than what you meant to take and if you shoot your shot on multiples in the in terms of the rookies i think you're going to hit on one and you're going to it's going to be worth it even if it's a 50 shot to me that has been very very valuable because when a rookie here's the other last caveat when a rookie starts to break out or they give you a game or they give you some potential early in the season let's say you spent three or four picks on rookies late in the draft everybody believes it everybody buys in it's it's it's trade capital it's excitement you know Garrett Wilson was a late pick yeah so these are players that you take you don't don't necessarily see the path maybe they sit a little bit further behind the depth

25:07Andy Holloway:chart I think that's a huge part of it is not seeing the path which is part of why those rookies then go there like when Garrett Wilson was drafted I think he was 10th overall right right around there it goes to the Jets like they yeah same with Waddle in Miami they and exactly the same thing with jim waddle the dolphins stink we can't possibly see a way forward for that so their adp is real low you get rookies like malik neighbors and marf where you're like oh i see the path of this really highly drafted rookie turning into something special but it's like these like waddle was a what the fourth or fifth pick overall and you we often let the situation to a terrible team just completely push you off of, like, it's impossible.

25:53Jason Moore:Look at the situation last year with Malik Nabors versus Brian Thomas Jr. Malik Nabors' path, so clear and obvious, everyone knew it. Brian Thomas was like, man, Christian Kirk is there. Evan Ingram is there. It's a bad team. Is Trevor Lawrence good enough? I don't know. And that's why he was in the ninth round.

26:12Mike Wright:I mean, do you see the names that were drafted around Brian Thomas before and after him?

26:15Jason Moore:I do not. DeAndre Hopkins. I would take Brian Thomas. Christian Watson. Yeah. Gus. I mean, Brian Thomas finished as a top 500 receiver. Gus Edwards. He's probably one of the best picks last year.

26:26Andy Holloway:Tua and Goddard. So, like, in part of the evaluation needs to be just talent. Just talent. Just, like, betting on talent will help you more than it will hurt you.

26:37Mike Wright:Yeah, and the depth chart figures itself out when talent is on display. So, grab a few mystery facts.

26:45Jason Moore:number nine this tip is called the pendulum swings every year and we talk about this from year to year that whatever happens last year is what everyone expects to happen next year except that doesn't happen this year that happened two years ago four years from now um and i want to focus on what we saw last year what worked last year what didn't work and how to take advantage of it for for this year so last year the early first round we only had three running backs drafted it was super wide receiver heavy because that's what worked two years ago that meant that all the stud running backs were pushed down Saquon Barkley Derek Henry Jameer Gibbs Kyron Williams these were the league winners last year and they were all drafted at the very end of the first or most of them into the second round as people were gobbling up wide receivers And the second round, the rest of the second round, when you were getting kind of the second tier of wide receivers, they all busted.

27:47Jason Moore:Then last year happened. It played out. And it wasn't the wide receivers that everyone was drafting early that dominated. But it was the running backs that dominated. The running backs just stayed healthier last year than they usually do. The top wide receivers got injured more than they usually do. CeeDee Lamb was injured. Puka was injured. A.J. Brown. Chris Olave. Or they just disappointed. Tyree Kill was the number one pick. Poof. He stunk. Marvin Harrison was supposed to be the hotness in the first round. It turned out he was a bust pick. And so what that means is we try to do whatever won last year.

28:16Jason Moore:So this year, since running backs won last year, we should all draft running backs. Everyone's drafting running backs. Look at the average draft position. It's saying that's what won last year, running backs. So grab the running backs. Except that isn't how life happens. Life is chaotic year to year. And while it could absolutely repeat, running backs could be the best. It could also be the opposite. but what we know is that the draft cost is going to follow the pendulum and whatever happened last year so this year not surprisingly is therefore the opposite of last year on average across all platforms there are only three wide receivers being drafted inside the top 10 ADP Jamar Chase Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb on you know on average from platform to platform and everybody's focusing on the running backs again so my recommendation this year is go against that grain if you're a late round first you know if you're a second half of the first round draft pick I'm going to go against the grain I'm going to focus on the top wide receivers that are being pushed down not because they are better but because they're the better bet statistically speaking instead of first round running backs and second round running backs that now have yellow flags a lot of them like ashen genti okay i i know i know he's the hotness but he's got some some yellow flags we talked about this on the running back show he's a rookie on a bad offense that we haven't seen before jonathan taylor bucky irving maybe even cmc these guys are right now i think being overdrafted but what is more important is that's pushing the value down on wide receivers So Amon Ross St.

29:50Jason Moore:Brown, Puka, Neighbors, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., A.J. Brown, Drake London, they are all being drafted at the 110 or later deep into the second round. And I feel like if I'm just looking statistically, not talent of the player and what I believe, but just like you've got to make bets that you're trying to win the majority of time, it seems like the value to me is there. So in this specific draft, if I'm drafting at the end of the first round, I'm not going to fall trapped to the ADP and draft questionable running backs over stud-wide receivers. Just because running backs worked out last year.

30:24Mike Wright:Yeah, that makes sense.

30:26Andy Holloway:Number eight. All right, we're going to talk about at-risk starters. So last year we had an episode where it was players you are embarrassed to love. Okay. And in that episode I brought forth Bucky and Tink Bigsby. of players like looking at who they were you know draft capital for for Bucky it was a third day running back Tank is competing with a first round running back and had himself a very embarrassing first year and so it wasn't necessarily that I loved those players in particular I but I looked at the situation thought I think the starters could be overtaken this episode last

31:08Mike Wright:year when you brought bucky up was the first time i believed you about bucky oh it was i mean i because in the offseason like the rashad white thing was working this is a good team they were very successful he could he caught almost 100 of his passes like that was the arguments i was bringing to the table for a shot white last year this was the first but you had always stood up against his inefficiencies yes and so you're you're you're saying that look for situations where the starter themselves by their play by their performance by their metrics exactly appears at risk etn was another one you hated rashad white you hated etn and you were right on both and i believe he still hates them yeah as just as people no no not as not as fantasy assets just

31:45Andy Holloway:like the man oh i don't have a problem with rashad white this year like of the adp for what he could give you it's perfectly fine it's just the when you buy into a player as especially at the running back position early and the only true check mark in their box is they're gonna get a ton of volume they're not going to be very good those guys are at risk like they can still end up keeping their job like maybe someone in the you know the rb2 is not talented enough to take them off the field that can happen but these are situations that you need to pay attention to and like the backups it can take some time it took bucky some time to to overtake rashad white so i'm not necessarily saying these are guys you got to take in your draft you know another one was tyrone

32:32Mike Wright:Tracy with Devin Singletary that was actually another situation we we maybe didn't have as much confidence in Tracy but Singletary was definitely an at-risk starter on that team

32:40Andy Holloway:yeah and so maybe you know depending on the size of the bench in your in your league you may not want to draft these particular players of these situations but you need to have your eyes open and be paying attention because like I said it may not happen week one or week two but you there are markers of you know the the efficiency of the starter versus the backup things like especially targets per route run uh because look we want pass catching running backs it's so much more valuable than a carry but just you know looking at things like that they're running behind the same offensive line and if the backup is just outperforming the starter by the end of the first month there's a chance that things could switch over so i took a look through the you know every team and I'm just making my best projection of of situations of starters how entrenched how much money are they going to make how good are those players and I came up with five teams where I thought there could be a transition and and also these these situations are are different than ambiguous backfields which we talk about because ambiguous you don't know who the starter is these are ones where it's like you know who they are we're pretty confident we know who the starter is especially when you look at ADP.

33:55Andy Holloway:So the Chicago Bears. Yep, DeAndre Swift. Is DeAndre Swift the guy? I mean, he's being paid like it, but Ben Johnson has. He's not good enough to be deserving of being the guy. He could be taken off, and Kyle Monongai has been getting some buzz. I know he's a. Monongai. You're adding a syllable. It works. Monongai. I mean, look, I love a good Monongai joke, but I don't know that. We'll try it. We'll workshop it. We'll work on it. But he is getting some. That was good. That was good work. How dare you. Wow. What I'm hearing at a Bears camp is like.

34:31Jason Moore:Mononga guy. Roshan. Do do do do. Mononga guy. Do do do do. That's not his name though. That's his name now, Mike.

34:38Mike Wright:It's not good, man. Okay. Move on.

34:40Andy Holloway:So the Bears situation. Andy, we know this is happening. I know. So just let it wash over you. Oh, man. Like Roshan is being talked about as just a specialty goal line player, which is, it could be interesting, but they're saying like, Mononga looks like. I watched the film. The RB2. I watched the film. He looked good. He runs really hard. The Cleveland Browns. Jerome Ford is the entrenched starter because he's the veteran, and Quinshawn Judkins is a knucklehead and is still not a Cleveland Brown. It's like, okay, maybe Dylan Sampson needs to be someone you keep an eye on. The Dallas Cowboys is just – that one is a disaster of – did you guys see the quote about Javante Williams from the coaching staff?

35:19Andy Holloway:Which started with – what are you saying that's good about Javante? well he's really mature he's seen a lot of things in the league he's mature? he's great with his teammates there was nothing there was no on field praise meanwhile Jaden Blue has been getting praise in camp, the Minnesota Vikings Aaron Jones is the starter Jordan Mason is going in much much later it wouldn't what's wild about these is it's surprising when it happens every time and I'm even willing to I will be a man of honor. He is a man of honor. The Seattle Seahawks, if Ken Walker can't stay healthy, if he can't do what they think he's going to do, they have second-round running back Charbonnet in the wings waiting.

36:06Andy Holloway:These situations, it's probably not going to happen for every single one of them, but you need to pay attention and you need to be proactive like a week early. Well, when Waverday hits and we're focused on, you're like, oh I'm going to patch up my team with players who are performing right now sometimes you got to go with a player who is not really bringing fantasy value but you can see the the sea parting in front of them that in a couple weeks that's going to be the starter I am a little disappointed at your

36:33Jason Moore:cowardice oh what did I forget because you know you really were anti Rashad White on his inefficiency yes and you were all you've pretty much always said you don't think Travis Etienne is that good but there's another player that you are always like he's not that good he's not efficient and you basically hate him with a raging fire and the Houston Texans are not on this list you're just too afraid of who it would be

37:01Mike Wright:I don't think that one fits I know but I'm saying Mike

37:06Andy Holloway:I honestly don't think it fits as much because I think Joe Mixon his job is more secure when he's back they'll let him be the guy All right.

37:16Mike Wright:Makes sense. Those are some good opportunities to look at.

37:19Jason Moore:Number seven.

37:21Mike Wright:All right. This one is more like, what is this, philosophical? Maybe just a mental approach to the game. I'm calling it Become a Stalwart. Now, we've always been of the opinion, you just play fantasy the way you want to play, right? Like, whatever's the most fun for you. Now, for me, it is the pinnacle of fun when I win. It is the pinnacle of fun when I have won the league. I think a lot of people agree with you. Al Borland himself, has it been fun for you to have won the League of Record? There's the trophy. Yeah, it's been pretty great. Yeah, so that is – What are you keeping that under the desk for?

37:57Jason Moore:I think Josh keeps moving it under the desk. Thank you, Josh.

38:01Mike Wright:That makes sense. Thank you. But I'm going to talk about being – playing the game in a way that is trying to remove the emotional overreactions, to lock in, to become a stalwart. there are two types of situations that really distort decision-making in fantasy and one of them is the rose-colored glasses and what we think and want to happen what we want to happen as opposed to what maybe logic or is sitting in front of us should happen or also just like the burns the fantasy burns the hyper avoidance of certain players because well we don't like that team as much or maybe we just that player hurt us in the past and so what i think is the most advantageous way to have the most fun is to develop your inner stalwart to be able to have an even-handed approach to fantasy that lets go of some of those extreme emotional reactions to be able to dig in and win because what happens is i mean there's a lot of examples of this that go well beyond um you know your your last season burns it's also emotional attachment to players you draft right like we all go and we build a roster we spend all this time in the offseason with the draft kit you build this perfect team and so because of that there's an

39:12Andy Holloway:emotional attachment that happens yeah especially when they win for you yeah and so sometimes you're

39:17Mike Wright:unwilling to trade a player away based on the objective realities in front of you or maybe trade for a player that you thought was bad that's performing like that's probably the hardest one is to buy like oh i knew that player was going to stink they have three or four good weeks you're like no I still believe they stink well sometimes the reality is different and every year there are certain players that we go in with maybe excitement or a bad taste in our mouth like Josh Jacobs after the Las Vegas year it was like so easy to go into that season thinking this guy might be toast but the NFL told us that wasn't the case when Green Bay paid him all that money and his ADP ends up dropping and he ends up the RB5 or in reverse like CJ Stroud do we all not we all want CJ Stroud to be the next great thing yes we do that rookie season was amazing and yet mike kept coming back to the fact that that our that qb 11 season was like riddled with you know really bad performances occasional great ones and then last year he went so high in drafts ends up the qb 18 you were locked in on him early in the season thinking it would all be great um that is an emotional overreaction that is something that you just want to will into being and throughout the course of a season you You just need to try your very best to look at things with the least emotional reaction possible.

40:33Mike Wright:Again, fantasy is about fun. If you want to find your perfect balance of emotional reaction and fandom with, you know, kind of being objective, I don't care how you mix that vial. You know what I mean? It's fine. However you want to do it, that makes it the most fun. But I do think the way that gives you the best opportunity to win is trying to be disconnected emotionally from the players on your roster and willing to trade them. When you go name your team after a player that you drafted, you are not going to trade that player. You're not going to trade that player or give up on them. Because you have to change your name.

41:10Mike Wright:Because you've got to change your team's name.

41:12Jason Moore:Can you trade the name? Could you say, I'm going to trade this player and namesake?

41:17Mike Wright:Yes, that's a great idea. okay it should you if you trade the player if you're willing to trade the player you should

41:21Jason Moore:always trade the name with that would be really confusing halfway through the season all of a sudden that team that's true with that name is like wait i'm playing him again no you're not no i i played him for the first time no i played i played him last week and and it was it was a

41:36Mike Wright:really roll roller coaster situation with like mark andrews last year um very emotional at some point in time i did give up right which kind of proved to be the wrong decision but after week week one when the entire earth was overreacting to Isaiah likely, you went back, you watched the film, you calmed down after the game, you saw the opportunities that didn't quite work. And at that point in time, you know, we came out here and said, look, this looks like a situation that's going to be fine. Don't panic. Now, eventually I panicked.

42:05Andy Holloway:I eventually panicked. Well, because he rewarded your confidence, Andy, with four for 51. And then we were safe. And then it was two games of zeros. Once the double goose happened, I definitely dipped. I don't, we didn't blame anyone for bailing then.

42:22Mike Wright:But basically we just get over attached to players emotionally. We don't trade them. We don't sit them fast enough. That's another thing. You're like, oh, this will be the week that they do the thing I thought they do in the offseason that maybe isn't really a reality anymore, but I think they'll do it because I believe they do it. So become a stalwart as much as you can to make the best, most objective decisions.

42:43Jason Moore:Number six. My next tip is to avoid double onesies early in your draft. In fantasy football, we use the term positional advantage all the time. We're describing a quarterback or a tight end that puts you above your league mates at that position, right? Lamar Jackson, he was the quarterback one. He was better by two points over the quarterback two. Brock Bowers, who was a late-round draft pick as the tight end won last year, he was awesome. And, you know, for years it was Travis Kelsey and Josh Allen. It feels so good to leave your draft stacked at those positions, to grab this year Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels.

43:23Jason Moore:These guys are awesome, and I love them, and I'm willing to take every single player I mention. But I want to talk about the positional disadvantage that it puts you at at the more important positions if you double up on the onesie position. The opportunity cost, whenever you draft any one of these guys, is something significant that you've got to factor in. If you take Brock Bowers, you are leaving Josh Jacobs, Bucky Irving, Jonathan Taylor, A.J. Brown, and Drake London on the table. You are taking them off of your roster. If you take Trey McBride, you are leaving Kyron Williams, Chase Brown, JSN, T.

43:59Jason Moore:Higgins.

44:00Mike Wright:Yeah, I did the McBride thing in our last mock, and I did not like what that did to my roster.

44:05Jason Moore:hard if you get uh Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen where they're going that's another Josh Jacobs Bucky Jonathan Taylor if you grab Jaden Daniels you're leaving Amari and Hampton Garrett Wilson Marvin Harrison so here's the thing that I'm recommending if you take one of those guys any any one of those guys I'll throw Burrow in there as well you're going to be fine if you take two you're really going to be wrecked. What happens if you take two? Let's just have a situation. I took Bowers in the second and Burrow in the fourth. That means my running back two or my wide receiver two is going to be one of these guys because I've got to get multiple of those.

44:47Jason Moore:My second starting running back will be Isaiah Pacheco or Aaron Jones or DeAndre Swift by ADP. That's going to be in my starting lineup. My second wide receiver is going to be, you know, Xavier Worthy, Zay Flowers, Chris Olave. It's going to be hard when you're starting. You just can't double up those early round onesie positions because your depth at the far more important position to have depth at when you start multiples plus a flex is very difficult. Now, I think that if you take one of those guys, you know, there are people, there are running backs and wide receivers we really like in rounds five and six that might slip to you.

45:28Jason Moore:You know, you might grab Travion Henderson or Ted Rowe and McMillan if you're going for the rookies. If Joe Mixon falls for a while and he's your running back, too, you can probably, you know, be fine with that. it's just tough to try to bank on two of these very rare round five and six wide receivers that we really like to drop to you to where your running backs and wide receivers are good so you you have the positional advantage at one position that you don't need as much and you sacrifice the far more important position so I would recommend to everybody avoid the double will be behind your league mates at the two most important positions if you double tap onesie positions before the sixth round no it's it's good advice and it is very

46:11Mike Wright:hard to resist sometimes those are big names big players most important positions a lot of the time

46:17Jason Moore:grabbing that quarterback name i love grabbing one of those guys as soon as the other guys on the board are like i've got a lot of question marks on on these names and if there's one of those guys left that are studs that you know there's no question about grab one of them then and then keep filling out your running backs and wide receivers.

46:37Mike Wright:All right, we'll take a quick break and then count on the top five tips and tricks on today's show.

46:45Andy Holloway:This message is brought to you by Apple Pay. Apple Pay is the simple, secure, and fast way to pay. That's because Apple Pay is your credit or debit card right on your iPhone or your Apple Watch. It's accepted at millions of places you already shop every day, from big box stores to boutiques. You can check out with Apple Pay anywhere contactless payments are accepted. Apple Pay is more secure than a physical card because you authenticate your purchases with face ID, touch ID, or your passcode before you pay, and your actual card number is never shared with merchants. Set up Apple Pay now so you can check out in seconds later.

47:24Andy Holloway:Just add your debit or credit card in Apple Wallet. Simple, secure, fast. That's Apple Pay. Terms apply. Today's show is brought to you by our friends at Old Spice with the Old Spice NFL Collection. You may not be able to play in the NFL. I know. I'm sorry. But you can smell like you do with an Old Spice NFL Collection bringing you 24-7 game day freshness. Smell like an entire Pro Bowl roster with deodorant, body wash, 2-in-1 shampoo and conditioner, body spray, and lotion, all in new scents inspired by NFL legends. Old Spice, they have you covered. Are you feeling clutch? Matthew Stafford brings the Cedarwood or channel CeeDee Lamb scoring a winning touchdown with deep sea and dimes.

48:09Andy Holloway:Look, we have a bunch of this stuff at my house. I'm not joking. All of this Old Spice NFL collection. I, look, I'm an MVP guy. I guess I like smelling like Matthew Stafford. That's Cedarwood. I put it on. I put on the deodorant. And this is true. Give the wife a hug goodbye. And she's like, what's going on? You smell great. I was like, that's because I smell like an MVP. I smell like Matthew Stafford. Looking for the greatest smell in the NFL? Go get the entire Old Spice NFL collection exclusively at Walmart.

48:44Andy Holloway:All right, it's time to jump back into it, starting with number five. Tip number five, we're going to be talking about anticipating offensive system tear jumps.

48:55Mike Wright:Okay, that's a lot of words, Mike. Yes.

48:57Andy Holloway:over 75 000 words right there the uh nfl is full of parody teams jump from worst to first it happens every single year and offenses jump from bad to competent sometimes even a jump up to a really good strong offense this it happens every year when it happens it feels like it comes out of nowhere because pretty much for this to happen the team had to have been bad uh you know and And it's like, well, that team was bad last year. There's no way they can turn it around. Lo and behold, it just happens every single year. In fact, at least three teams jump 13 or more total touchdowns from the previous year.

49:39Andy Holloway:And that is over the last decade that we get three teams that make a very significant jump. Yeah, the Washington Commanders, right? They were horrifically bad. They overhaul everything. They bring in Jaden Daniels. They hit on that. and now we want all the Washington commanders on our fantasy football teams. So it's about trying to project which teams, which of the at least three teams, are going to make that jump. So look at last year. Were they dreadful? Okay, well, that's the first checkmark. But then it's figure out what happened. Tua, last year the Miami Dolphins, who had been a very prolific offense, Tua misses half the year.

50:23Andy Holloway:and all of a sudden that team looks bad and we have bad feelings about the Miami Dolphins. A couple years ago, it's happened to the Cowboys with Dak Prescott. He's gotten hurt, then the Cowboys look like crap. They come back, or Dak comes back. Look who's a high-powered offense again. Things like strength of schedule. San Francisco, per Warren Sharpe's strength of schedule analysis, it just looks so easy. And obviously it won't be as easy as it looks, but there is a clear path on there. And then this is a big one. Offensive coordinator change. So last year we had a good amount of teams jump up, and four of the five from last year, it was an offensive coordinator change.

51:09Andy Holloway:And you can even factor in if you want to say, hey, Aaron Rodgers is kind of a – Four of the five jumps? Yeah, four of the five jumps from last year. And if you want to say Aaron Rodgers is part of the OC of the Jets last year, that would be five of five. um so in fact over the last three years 10 of the 11 teams that tear jumped had a new oc or a new play caller that year so it's looking at the teams who were bad and then this year who do we have new play callers or new ocs the the best candidates for this you know and i have one team in mind i wonder if you'll mention them or not and and the thing about that is when there's there's players from these teams, it's baked into their average draft position.

51:49Andy Holloway:That player's on a bad team. So they go later in draft. This is what helps you find guys who are really going to help you win. Not just the early picks, but the later guys. This year, the teams that we got new player callers, new OCs that are interesting, that could make this jump of over 13 touchdowns to really help your fantasy team. We got Chicago with Ben Johnson. That's the obvious one. dallas they changed things up they got clayton adams at the oc position the vegas raiders you got chip kelly in there who has given us historically really good fantasy players in the past like new england hey we got josh mcdaniel i mean he's back we're back baby and then in cleveland tommy reese so we have you didn't say the team i was okay this is me to mention it yeah Yeah, because first it has to be a bottom 10 team.

52:40Andy Holloway:Is it Tennessee? No. Oh, okay. Give it to me. It's Jacksonville. Sure. With Liam Cohen. Yes.

52:47Mike Wright:And the bad vibes and the fact that you had the number two pick, which Jacksonville's sitting there going like, well, there are not good feelings around that team. There's good feelings around Brian Thomas Jr., but we're talking about the backfield we don't love and all that, but Liam Cohen should be able to do something special. That's one situation that jumped out to me.

53:07Jason Moore:I love that call because Travis Etienne is left for dead in drafts right now. He's a bum. He's worthless. It's Bayshel Tootin that everybody wants now this year or Tank Bigsby. And, you know, Trevor Lawrence isn't good. But if he brings in a good system and Trevor Lawrence is an above-average quarterback, that could be a very good offense. They have weapons there.

53:28Andy Holloway:So just, you know, the summary is don't get over-concerned about how bad a team was last year. Look at the team. Look at the changes that they have made. Did they bring in a new OC? Because teams move up. And every single time they move up, we go, whoa! Didn't see that coming. No, who could have possibly seen that? It happens every year, man. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

53:50Mike Wright:So you have to try to find your best shot at predicting those situations. No, it makes sense. All right, moving on. Number four. All right, number four. My final tip of this top ten, it is doing the tight end dance. all right and it kind of piggybacks on what jason was talking about with the onesie positions if you don't end up with one of those you know the bowers mcbride kittle which in in most situations uh you know bowers and mcbride i think the way we view them is that they are fair and appropriate picks at their draft cost but they do cost you something right in terms of the uh what you're trading jason mentioned the names earlier george kittle's kind of been the favorite of our group But if you look at our value scout tool, and if you don't know what that is, we have built it out, added it to the EDK this year.

54:38Mike Wright:What it does is it takes our rankings and our true value of a player where we think they really belong in drafts, their true value, and compares it to your platform's average draft position. Because your league mates are drafting ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, NFL, whatever. They're drafting and they're seeing those default lists. And those default lists are based on where those players are going on those platforms. And so our tool compares our true value with those platforms and kind of says, hey, we think this player is worth maybe five or six, seven picks to be higher in the draft or lower. But when you look at how we view the tight end position, we basically look at Bowers, McBride and Kittle.

55:18Mike Wright:Pretty much their true value is about where they're being drafted. but beyond that at the tight end position the TLDR the summary it's like we don't think that the Laportas the Hawkinsons are worth where they're going in drafts because of the other options that you have at tight end later on and so it can feel a little uncomfortable going into your fantasy season without a true you know monster tight end Bowers McBride Kittle it can feel a little uncomfortable but people need to recognize that doing the tight end dance streaming the tight end position where look every week we get on and we tell you streaming defenses that we think are good options this week you can stream the kicker position every week but tight end overall it really can be pieced together in i think a more predictive way yes because the defensive numbers that we start to get four five six weeks into the season you really see what teams are

56:13Jason Moore:vulnerable against tight ends it's a scheme thing some some some teams their personnel and the scheme that they play just allows that area of the field to get eaten alive and so the offense that faces it targets that because it's just good football and it happens every week it's it's very predictable in a way that it it's not with the other positions we uh behind the scenes look of the fantasy

56:36Andy Holloway:footballers uh one of our in-season tools is the stream finder where you know instead of just a strength of schedule for one particular team we look at which teams are getting beaten up by a particular position and every week we do a starts of the week segment and every week it's one of the starts of the week at the tight end position is going to be that tight end who's playing the team who gets beat up by tight ends and it works just magically over the course of the season yeah and

57:08Mike Wright:I think part of that is just like okay if a team's weak against wide receivers well every team starts a bunch of wide receivers. If a team's weak against running backs, there's a lot of committees. If you're weak against the tight end, there's normally one targeted pass-catching tight end. It makes it easier to predict. And the other aspect that you can look at, you know, beyond the defense they're playing when you're looking at streaming tight ends, look at the metrics that matter. That's a series we've been doing with the Just the Tips weekend mini-series. But if you look at what's the most important thing for tight ends, routes, receptions, targets, yards after catch.

57:41Mike Wright:and so you can start to look at increased opportunities a good example of this last year if you remember the show i was doing this i was in the position to stream tight ends i was on the way to a championship game against al borland our champion now but the path to the championship game went with it was like britain strange all of a sudden had a bunch of opportunities in the offense chigakonkwo from weeks 12 through 17 elite usage in the offense he was 25 plus routes per game, six plus targets per game. All of a sudden he was winning people titles, number seven tight end, number three tight end, and then almost nine fancy points in the championship week.

58:18Mike Wright:Not a bad week. Targets 10, 11, seven out of nowhere, undrafted, not picked up on waiver wires. You could just grab them off of the waiver wire in week 15. This happens more predictably at tight end. And so doing that tight end dance, if you don't get one of the top guys or you don't want to spend that cost, you don't want to take McBride at the expense of Chase Brown, this is the way to do it it is more predictable and you can find those opportunities this year i'm telling you some names to pay attention to i'm gonna whisper one of them oh kyle pitts i knew it and then i'm gonna mention some i'm gonna mention a man has become a meme he has become a meme and he's like he's still like 16 years old now you're a meme but another name like you talk about the mystery bag mason taylor is gonna start he's back at practice yeah mason taylor is gonna start for the jets from week one, a rookie tight end, Elijah Arroyo in Seattle, maybe Chigakonkwo again.

59:11Mike Wright:Jason mentioned him the other day. You can do the tight end dance and win. So that's my final tip.

59:17Jason Moore:Number three. This tip is really important for who are listening right now and about to draft in two weeks, which is everybody. This is beware overdrafting preseason hype machines. Oh, boy. It don't work. Oh, boy. It doesn't work. The preseason, look, we come in and we do the preseason power-up and we tell you what we're seeing and the depth chart. Oh, man. But that train gets out of control. We like the hype train. That train was the Abdullah Express. How dare you. Boy, that train really keeps going. That train just goes on. I guess I got to stop the train. Yeah. You can't. Al Borland's looking at me.

59:55Jason Moore:Stop the train. You stop. Trains can't. Anyways, you know, in the early days of the podcast, we had the Amir Abdullah's cut heard around the world yeah the one jump cut that lofted him up to like the fourth round because it was awesome it was unbelievable but it turns out preseason play it was a preseason play and it didn't actually uh change things more recently do you guys remember when marquez callaway yeah and the saints he had a couple touchdowns in preseason went all the way up to the eighth round uh the year after damian pierce i mean i was out on him all off season going into 2022 and then he had such a good preseason and i was like dang i guess i was wrong and then he was a bust pick in the fifth round the next year kenny pickett oh that the stealers office perfect offense oh what a preachy's five preseason drives five touchdowns then two full seasons of real football later and he kenny pickett has the worst touchdown second worst touchdown rate of all time that one's crazy Last year, Caleb Williams, he had this insane off-balance, out-of-the-pocket, deep completion to Roma Dunze.

1:01:06Jason Moore:Do you guys remember that? I hope you don't because this is an actual tweet from the Bears. This is an actual tweet from the Bears. Oh, it is. They said nobody will remember your salary, how busy you were, how many hours you worked. People will remember Caleb Williams to Roma Dunze in the third preseason game of 2024. for. Okay. We don't remember.

1:01:31Andy Holloway:It was our job. The Bears fans have been upset. I'm not completely sure why, the way that we talk about the Bears, because we want them to be good. We like their skill players. Everything is just Caleb Williams good enough. Okay. This? This is not helping your case.

1:01:48Jason Moore:Talk to the social media people. They were a hype machine in preseason last year. It didn't work. It also works in reverse. Jamar Chase, his rookie preseason. Oh, he can't catch the football. Dealt with drops through training camp and had one bad preseason drive. He was done. You know, Gentey and Caleb Johnson this year, oh, he's dead. His career is over because he dropped the pass in preseason.

1:02:13Andy Holloway:Andy's holding to it.

1:02:14Jason Moore:How about that? My point is...

1:02:15Mike Wright:I was saying that his career is certainly not over one preseason game.

1:02:19Jason Moore:That is my point. It's like, do not overreact to this preseason. Have fun. Watch football. Try to take some glimmers of maybe some second third string players who seem like they're going to crack into the starting roster maybe that

1:02:33Mike Wright:matters for your late oh my gosh please ignore stat lines oh yes season oh yeah I the only thing I look at genuinely is the athleticism of a player and how they look compared to other NFL players I can't remember like Julius Thomas preseason with Peyton Manning in Denver hyper athletic tight end nobody had heard of him you start to see some plays yards after the catch you're like wow that player looks special on an NFL field. That's the stuff to pay attention to.

1:03:01Jason Moore:Yeah, and if you look over time, all the things that really preseason let us – I mean, you're bringing up Julius Thomas. That's a great example. I remember. I will never forget how important that preseason was. What year was that? That was probably 2017, 2018. I mean, when was Julius Thomas' breakup? Exactly. We've got to dig deep for the real positive we've got to win from this preseason glimmer.

1:03:29Mike Wright:Although you can't talk Mike out of Isaac Tesla. No, you cannot. Because the one caveat here is if they're on your team, the preseason super matters.

1:03:39Jason Moore:That's great because then you can't avoid this tip, which is you can't overdraft them. Yeah, I already got them. You're good. That's a good point. Now just get hyped. That's fine. Just don't overdraft based on preseason. You can ask Brian. My Tesla hype is inappropriate.

1:03:55Mike Wright:So you are fully hoping James Williams leaves due to contractual. Yeah, next year. Next year. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, I want James Williams this year. No, I know, but I know already what you're hoping for. Yeah. A departure to another team.

1:04:11Andy Holloway:Number two. Dynasty's the long game, man. You got to see a path a year in front. Yeah, your team doesn't need any more players. All right, we're going to call this one Mix and Match, and this is honestly a newer strategy that over the last couple years, I've become more open to it and to the fact of like, no, now I'm not just open to the idea. I think it's a good idea, and it's in a single quarterback league, be willing to draft two quarterbacks in your league. And this is more of a tip for a, if I draft a stud quarterback, I'm not doing this but if I wait on my quarterback then I'm I'm real real open to drafting a second quarterback because you you're trying to find a breakout guy you know and in the in the past it had been easier to to find those guys late Patrick Mahomes Lamar Jaden Daniels uh Josh Allen it was like especially when they run it's an easier thing for fantasy football to see that player really paying off where they're being drafted.

1:05:19Andy Holloway:But if I'm waiting on a quarterback, I still want to take multiple shots at finding that breakout quarterback because as the rounds go on, of course you want to find the super late round running back or wide receiver who's really going to step up and make a difference for your team. But listen to this. Last year, of the 36 non-defense or kicker players taken in rounds 13 to 15 you know essentially the the last three rounds for most uh most leagues out there only a handful of running backs we're talking five players were valuable at any part of the season after week one if you were drafted beyond round

1:06:00Mike Wright:13 yes yeah that's like a that's like a very low that's not a mystery bag that's a bag of poop yeah

1:06:06Andy Holloway:So last year, Jacoby, Rico, Jerry Judy, Josh Downs. At best, you're hoping for some corn in that.

1:06:13Jason Moore:You know, it's like, that's it. Nasty. So there's at least something in it. That's the five dollars.

1:06:18Mike Wright:I don't know why you had to get in on the bag joke. Just let it go.

1:06:22Andy Holloway:So these players going in those rounds, more often than not, are just nothingness. Yeah, you cut them.

1:06:29Mike Wright:You end up cutting them for free agent pickups.

1:06:31Andy Holloway:Yeah, for waiver day, your first waiver, which it's nice to have a player. I can see in week one is something going to happen nope okay just give me someone who I know is going to do something but taking a second shot at one of these later round quarterbacks because the names are extremely enticing these are these are quarterbacks who are going you know in double digit rounds Justin Herbert Purdy Dak Caleb Jordan Love Justin Fields Stroud and Drake May like of that list it would not surprise me to see at least three or four of those guys inside the top 12 at the end of the year. And so instead of a huge grab bag of veterans going in the 13th round, Justin Fields is a running quarterback who has given you fantasy success in the past.

1:07:20Andy Holloway:Drake May, Jason loves him. He rushes, too, more than you actually realize. Dak, historically when healthy, a stud for fantasy football. So I'm willing to take, if I'm going later with my quarterback, I want to pair two of these guys instead of a running back that I'm going to cut after week one.

1:07:40Mike Wright:No, it is interesting, and it gives you – I've seen some trade opportunities born out of that strategy before because let's say both of your guys hit. I mean, you do have leverage there. Somebody's got a disappointing quarterback. There's going to be disappointments in the first few weeks.

1:07:54Andy Holloway:And exactly what you know is of the quarterbacks who are drafted as the top ten at the position,

1:07:59Mike Wright:multiple guys in that top 10 are going to fail yeah no it happens every single year all right we got one left number one all right i'm gonna title this one this is the one we all share and um it's good advice it's called wiping the slate clean throw a little quote in here guys see if you can get deep with me here the past is a place of reference not a place of residence Oh man I like that That's a little too deep For the show that just talked about corn and poop

1:08:30Jason Moore:I feel like What I would say instead of that quote I would say something more along the lines of Upgrade from toilet paper to a bidet Thank you Really wipe it clean Wipe it clean

1:08:45Mike Wright:Wash it clean It's okay he's close Let go Let go of the pain Let go of the burns. Let go of the resentment. Let go of the frustration. Let go of the bitterness. Let go of the baggage. Let go of the what ifs. Oh, my gosh, the what ifs. Free yourself of the burden, my friends. Last year is gone, right? We've learned our lessons. We've done our reflection. That was back in February and March. It is time to move forward. Don't let any of those old burns hold you back from good choices in this year's draft.

1:09:15Jason Moore:You're just telling Mike to draft CMC at 101.

1:09:18Mike Wright:I think I accidentally did. Look, there is one. Don't get to tell me nothing. there is one person. I've been here. One person in your draft that should be bringing up the past. Mike. And that is the champion. Your job is to make everybody else look backwards. The champ's job is to make them look backwards and bow to you. Everybody else needs to wipe the slate clean. Forget that it existed. Honestly, I've almost forgotten that I was in the title game against Al. It's just not I don't even remember who won that game. That's right. I don't even know. Because you don't reside in the past. I don't reside in the past.

1:09:57Mike Wright:So wipe the slate clean, and it's a brand new year. You are currently undefeated, Foot Clan, on the season.

1:10:03Andy Holloway:Oh, man. I pulled up, because I hadn't watched yet, but I pulled up Hard Knocks last night.

1:10:09Mike Wright:Yeah, I was meaning to do that yesterday as well.

1:10:11Andy Holloway:I was watching, you know, the sleep show. Have it on. Wife's getting ready in the bathroom for sleep. She walks out. She's like, oh, no. oh really the horns she's like that means the season is starting the music lets her know exactly what's happening i was like yeah you hear this oh man that theme song oh man so she's remembering

1:10:38Mike Wright:the past yeah it was it was oh no that's amazing um well it's your job mike you have no choice i know and it's wonderful all right mock draft episode tomorrow we got something special in store for that we got my guys on friday official my guys delivered to you on friday are we locked we're locked we're locked we're locked for now and i feel really good about all nine of us yeah no this i was saying this is the first year i've kind of felt like i mean we make them individually sometimes we're gonna have differences of opinion i feel pretty good about the group so looking forward to it hey this is brie and he's white oh i want to be going to the past biggest congratulations to owls doing what you said playing okay he's bringing up the fact that

1:11:27Jason Moore:he's the champ and i was your nose in it oh we did forget i mean we didn't we didn't call this out but um we do have a special guest today oh that's right kiano couldn't make it on yesterday yeah i mean we've talked about it we've got our seeing this is too in we've got our arch rival

1:11:43Mike Wright:you know the new height show and we kind of called them out because we passed them in the sports rankings and that's what you do like i said you know you kind of got a gloat when you pass somebody and they they were kind of scrambling they were desperate they're like i don't know what to do we got to get our ranking up and so they decided i guess based on us to have uh a musical artist

1:12:04Jason Moore:who was it again taylor swift taylor swift well you know who we got on our show we've got taylor that's right baby we had we had her on our show first yeah that's right taylor swift is back i mean hey guys that's not ai for all the youtube out there my 13th album to announce on today's

1:12:26Mike Wright:show oh man so uh very special guest today we had to we had to get back up on the chest only there on youtube yeah yeah that didn't work well on the podcast all right that'll do it for today's show. Thank you for joining us. Avail yourself of the UDKUltimateDraftKit.com back with more shows tomorrow. Take care, everybody. Goodbye.

1:13:08Andy Holloway:Today's show is brought to you by our friends at Old Spice with the Old Spice NFL Collection. You may not be able to play in the NFL. I know. I'm sorry. But you can smell like you do with an Old Spice NFL Collection bringing you 24-7 game day freshness. Smell like an entire Pro Bowl roster with deodorant, body wash, 2-in-1 shampoo and conditioner, body spray, and lotion, all in new scents inspired by NFL legends. Old Spice, they have you covered. Are you feeling clutch? Matthew Stafford brings the Cedarwood. Or channel CeeDee Lamb scoring a winning touchdown with deep sea and dimes. Look, we have a bunch of this stuff at my house.

1:13:48Andy Holloway:I'm not joking. All of this Old Spice NFL collection. I, look, I'm an MVP guy. I guess I like smelling like Matthew Stafford. That's Cedarwood. I put it on. I put on the deodorant. And this is true. Gave the wife a hug goodbye, and she's like, what's going on? You smell great. I was like, that's because I smell like an MVP. I smell like Matthew Stafford. Looking for the greatest smell in the NFL? Go get the entire Old Spice NFL collection exclusively at Walmart.

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