Fantasy Football - 2025 Bust Picks + Risers & Fallers - Podcast for 8/25

9:02Mike Wright:Jalen Wright might. That is fair. If you're on the goal line, you get one and a half. That's true. That's a touchdown. That's true, yeah. And then the injury to Devon Achan. And then Ollie Gordon's up over five a carry in the preseason and looked really good. So there's a world where, you know, there's an A and B combo there with Achan and Ollie Gordon, and Ollie Gordon may have a shot to – I mean, what if Achan re-injures? I mean, the re-injury risk is significant with soft tissue situations, trying to get back in time for the season, and they can run the football there. So, you know, offensive line notwithstanding, he still looked good in the preseason.

9:34Mike Wright:I'm going to go Ollie Gordon as the biggest riser.

9:36Jason Moore:That's a fantastic pick. It's a name people need to be aware of. Jalen Wright was an untalented, in my opinion. Was. Was. Was an untalented back that I was still willing to draft because his situation said he should get work. I think Ollie Gordon is a little bit talented so you know that's a huge upgrade I've got a couple of preseason risers, Ricky Pearsall I mean he stayed healthy some of our biggest risers and fallers in preseason is really just like we get close to the NFL season and we know who's actually injured and who's actually healthy and so it's like okay hey Ricky great job you're healthy and you're in San Francisco darn near impossible to do that combination but you've done it um i also want to throw out marvin mims yeah marvin mims has been on the field and two wide receiver sets almost every snap with one feels like a little like maybe we're too quiet there yeah i mean i think it's because we don't necessarily

10:36Andy Holloway:expect it to hold you're waiting for that rug yeah exactly the marvin mims rug is it's on the way yeah uh so yeah you fell for my trap i'm still a little worried but that's a perfect like

10:47Jason Moore:last round pick though because yeah we'll find out week one week one he doesn't need to go out there and have 80 yards and a touchdown for me to go okay it was real he just needs to be on the field for you know 80 plus percent of snaps if he is he's going to be very relevant for fantasy this year um if he's out there 47 percent of the snaps kind of how i expect but i would never have drafted him before the preseason um and right now he he's a target for me at the at the end of drafts i mean

11:16Andy Holloway:We all know that the number one is Oh yes

11:21Jason Moore:Bill Krosky Oh baby He can strangle you with a cordless phone

11:28Andy Holloway:Bill Krosky I didn't know we had one teed up He's always got one teed up You gotta be prepared

11:34Jason Moore:Please only ask me one more time This episode

11:40Jason Moore:I'll come into every episode with two That's my promise I got no more than that

11:45Andy Holloway:It's him But if you're a... See, I thought you'd just instantly say Travion. Oh, he is... Those two are the biggest risers.

11:53Mike Wright:So the footballers, crack staff over here, they put a few suggestions in before we picked ours. Right. I deleted Travion out so you wouldn't pick it. But I just assumed you'd pick it anyways.

12:03Andy Holloway:No, I did not because... Look, he's a my guy.

12:07Mike Wright:I like your answer.

12:07Andy Holloway:But if you're following me on the Twitter machine, this is an Isaac Tesla account. This dude just keeps getting it done with huge plays, huge blocks. People might not know who he plays for. So Isaac Tesla, third-round pick of the Detroit Lions, third round that Dan Campbell and crew traded two extra thirds to go and get. It seemed wild and insane at the time, considering Tesla's production profile of playing at lesser schools and then just really no production once he finally got to play for a D1 school. But he just keeps getting it done, including this past weekend, a 30-plus yard touchdown, and then hits the worm after the touchdown, and it was executed for all of a sudden.

12:58Andy Holloway:Really? I missed the worm?

13:00Jason Moore:Dude, that's a big boy.

13:02Mike Wright:That's a huge worm. It's a 9.5 out of 10 worm.

13:04Andy Holloway:I mean, it was a serious worm. It was sensational. That's a problem. And he just, like, I don't know how the Lions keep him out of the wide receiver three position for long because he's just, he is so dynamic and pun intended, he is so electric.

13:23Mike Wright:The comments from Dan Campbell are what matter to me. It's that this guy can be an impact player for their team early in the season. Those comments are not necessarily associated with a rookie. And in this case, I think they're very impressed.

13:39Andy Holloway:And it's not just catching the ball. His athletic profile is out of control. He is gigantic. He is strong and fast. But they're talking about the other stuff involved of getting on a field. We talk about a rookie running back. I don't necessarily love when a running back is good at pass protecting because I want them out there getting dump-offs. But to get on the field, you have to be good at pass protection. and Tesla is good at other things besides just catching.

14:09Jason Moore:Andy, you've been a Jamison Williams, you know, he's one of your my guys, truther, big breakout season coming forward. Does Tesla scare you at all?

14:18Mike Wright:No, it doesn't. I mean, we've seen Tim Patrick make an impact on this team. We've seen Kalief Raymond make an impact on this team. I'm excited for the offense to have these guys, and I think Tesla is just impressed as much as he can in the preseason. The roles for those other guys are defined, and there's room for him to come in and be much better than Tim Patrick on this offense. If anything, it might impact my view of Sam Laporta a little bit in the red zone just because I think Tesla can make an impact there. But it doesn't really affect it.

14:47Andy Holloway:Yeah, he doesn't scare me off of Jamison Williams. And we may go through this entire season where Tesla is not really a part of your fantasy football team. But longer term, you need to be paying attention to him. It could be one of those things where it's just better for Jared Goff. If you have another wide receiver who at any moment can hit a 50-yard touchdown and the defense has to worry about that with the other guys, maybe Goff will be safer than we can.

15:16Mike Wright:I hope they can protect him because he's going to carve people up.

15:18Jason Moore:Some of those deep routes that he's been running, and I know it's preseason, but I'm talking when it's one-on-one, and it's like, okay, it doesn't matter. Maybe in preseason the defender's not trying as super hard as he could, but it's like he makes it look so easy. They're trying to get a job. The separation that he's achieving seems – like I don't know how you stop a guy with his athletic profile. And why wasn't he great in college?

15:43Andy Holloway:We're not sure. It happens. Sometimes the scheme and players just don't work their way into the good graces. So he's 6 '4", 214, and he ran a 4 '4", 3. He's very talented. And the explosive score is in the 91st percentile. So his size and speed puts him at a 91st percentile speed score. He is an athlete.

16:09Mike Wright:It's really hard for me to figure out how he would be fantasy relevant on a regular basis this year. Best ball. But he could be really good for golf, like you said. I have two names for the Fallers. Well, I got one first, Joe Mixon.

16:23Jason Moore:Oh, yeah.

16:23Mike Wright:He's playing a game of hide-and-seek, and he's doing it well. No one can find him. Nobody has been able to find him. He just dropped.

16:32Jason Moore:I'm literally about to draft him right now in a league. He made it back to me. Where are you? I'm going to draft him. What round? It is the very end of the 11th round. Wow.

16:42Mike Wright:I was going to say, he just went 13th round in my expert league. Well, it's a 2QB in my expert league, so it's probably about the same spot.

16:51Andy Holloway:Because, Andy, you're wrong. Someone found him. that orthopedic surgeon who posted on facebook and i'm gonna throw one more name out just um it's tyler shuck i mean oh shucks the the the saints first of all the saints are going to

17:07Mike Wright:to be terrible second of all you spent a very high pick yeah on tyler shuck and he had every opportunity this preseason to easily win a job over spencer rattler and couldn't even come close to doing it i don't know if he saw did we get an official announcement there's no official announcement but the odds like the vegas odds of the starter are so heavily in favor of spencer rattler shuck has not looked good and if they're a bad team what happens then what are they going to do in the draft this is the this is the problem of re-rolling like and and he's he's the brandon Whedon right he's he's much older he's 26 or whatever a 26 year old rookie so picking a starter or not I think his I think the excitement for him has dropped off yeah we got a tweet here from Nick

17:56Andy Holloway:Underhill from four minutes ago the Saints have not picked their week one starter that I think it's minus 200 on Rattler right now that at this point and you haven't picked that I got a snake

18:09Mike Wright:man well here's i mean what would you do if you're the saints what would you do because even if rattler is twice as good in camp is he your future quarterback yeah i mean i know you want to win ball games but it's like you got to develop shuck yeah you just spent the money it's the anthony richardson thing to some degree i mean you don't got a lot

18:28Jason Moore:of time to develop shuck he's 26 you gotta get on it so yeah if if you're that age and you come in and can't beat Spencer Rattler, then we know for sure the Saints will be drafting a very highly drafted quarterback in 2026. Seems very likely, yes. I hate Mike and I's fallers that we've picked in here. In fact, Mike, I picked mine because you picked yours. I understand. We're attacking each other. It's really true.

19:01Andy Holloway:Because it's the same exact reason for both of them.

19:04Jason Moore:Exactly right. These are two rookie wide receivers we like the tape of. Second round pick. Second round pick. Super high draft capital. Everything looking good. Going to situations where there was opportunity. Unfortunately, the opportunity has been taken by not them, but their teammates. I'm throwing out Jack Besch. Massive dropper. He's dropped 51 spots in underdog. Second round pick. They had a...

19:30Mike Wright:Montavian Wick's also a massive dropper.

19:32Jason Moore:Yeah. Oh, nice. just catching strays out here wicks just leave the man alone yeah uh he he is bad at catching you want to miss the chance no you got to take it when you don't say massive dropper a lot um yeah but uh jack bash rookie wide receiver for the um for the raiders i mean they have a different rookie who is on the field who was drafted later thornton yeah thornton is and he's looking great Like he's a candidate for a top riser. I mean, he – Jacoby Myers is the wide receiver one. So the hope when Bess went here was maybe you could become the best wide receiver on this team outside of Brock Bowers.

20:16Jason Moore:There's the opportunity for that. But even if you're not, they need another wide receiver on the field. Thornton's taken that job and Jack Bess has fallen.

20:24Andy Holloway:Yeah, the name for me is Trey Harris of the Chargers. both of these guys Harris and Besh longer term I still believe that they will get it figured out

20:35Mike Wright:it's just as I feel like Trey Harris has been impressive yes but his circumstances have now

20:40Andy Holloway:yeah but what happened with him is like so much buzz for Keiondre Lambert Smith who like it felt like me is he outplaying the second round Trey Harris and then on top of that they went and got Keenan Allen off of the couch. So the chances of Trey Harris making an impact in year one feels like he needs other guys to get hurt. He can't just play his way into it.

21:05Mike Wright:For sure. I agree. And obviously Isaac Garindo with the, you know, Shanahan came out. He said Brian Robinson is our number two. So to me, that is the high priority backup running back. But in San Francisco, you normally need seven. So we'll take a break and we'll jump into some news.

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23:36Mike Wright:All right, let's catch you up. Big news this morning.

23:41Jason Moore:news and notes from around the league presented by progressive insurance

23:48Mike Wright:well it's uh monday august 25th but we got there all right barry mclaurin has agreed to a three-year extension we're still trying to figure out if it's worth up to 96 million more than 96 million or exactly 96 million but that's the number we know that number is involved yeah that number is yeah it's on the table 30 million in a signing bonus terry mcloran getting paid good for you should have got paid please stay healthy terry

24:21Jason Moore:i i always roll my eyes when the last minute oh yeah the guy who's been missing training camp missing preseason and now has to go out in a couple weeks and play ball like he's worth 96 million dollars please don't get hurt please be at full strength like just what did you save

24:41Mike Wright:commanders like two million three million their line item on the contract one of them should have been loyalty tax oh for sure that should have been on there and you know he deserves it they had an amazing year it was a huge part was due to him and he's got a quarterback and now you can rest easy with your jayden daniels uh situation because you know if mclaurin i guess we all kind of believed he'd be there but if he wasn't that would that would pretty negatively affect jayden daniels passing game so uh there was a report that the jaguars may be looking to unload either etn or tank bigsby i think mike alluded to that as a possibility uh i don't know if it was mike or jason one of you guys said it like recently that seems like one of these guys should go and that

25:29Andy Holloway:would be awesome so it would make things a lot more clear and if there are a lot of tootin fans out yeah the the bashal tootin the the twitter hive for him they would be very excited about this

25:42Mike Wright:so that was one piece of news Kyle Shanahan saying Brian Robinson is the number two we just said it it looks like maybe Adam Thielen won't be a Viking what

25:54Jason Moore:financial hurdles

25:56Mike Wright:remain

26:01come on

26:02Mike Wright:I mean you gotta have money saved Adam don't make that the problem dude no Adam make that the problem

26:08Jason Moore:you get yours He gets Social Security in a couple years. That's true. That's a good point.

26:13Mike Wright:Cam Akers has been cut by the Saints, but the bigger news there was it seems like Kendra Miller is solidified as the number two running back with the Saints. I listened to the press conference with Kellen Moore. All positive about Kendra Miller.

26:26Jason Moore:I mean, he has done what was impossible. He has stayed healthy through a preseason. I thought you were going to say, please a coach. One of the biggest fallers, which isn't even worth. I mean, he has fallen tremendously, and he was already at the bottom as Marshawn Lloyd because he just can't stay healthy. Kendrick Miller has a legitimate shot to be fantasy relevant, obviously harder on the Saints, but being healthy, he's a good player. The coaching staff is actually not just putting him in the doghouse.

26:55Mike Wright:He can catch the football, and literally, Alvin Kamara not only is an older running back, but got hurt to end last year, like he wasn't on the field.

27:02Jason Moore:Yeah.

27:03Mike Wright:All right, some injury updates. Chargers general manager came out and said Najee Harris could be ready for week one I think he said he should be able to go which is Harbaugh said when Najee's ready to play he'll be ready to play

27:17Jason Moore:it's just crazy to me because I've been looking recently like this past week I have been checking on what Najee's been doing at practice and he's been like jogging off to the side in individual drills how you go from that to a significant role Right, because it's not like you're waiting. I don't know. It's an eye. So it just, I mean, go slam helmets. I don't understand. Hopefully it's okay.

27:43Mike Wright:Yeah. Juwan Jennings, Kyle Shanahan expects him to be ready for week one. So, you know, he said the quote was, I expect him to be back. I think he should be back from it, but you never know with Cavs, which that team, yeah. We do know. We do know.

28:00Jason Moore:You said you expect Christian McCaffrey back from his calf injury in week one last year too.

28:03Mike Wright:So that is, you know, that calf could, I mean, another different paycheck could cure the calf.

28:08Andy Holloway:We don't know. The issue with Jennings is he should be a great fantasy football pick, but when guys miss the entire camp with injury like this, the numbers on those players hitting is very, very bad.

28:24Mike Wright:I'm feeling much more out on Jennings now.

28:26Andy Holloway:But the question here is, is he really hurt? Is he really hurt or is he just saying, I don't want to do this because you're not giving me my money. I think he's really hurt.

28:36Jason Moore:When the first report came out of his injury early on, I thought for sure, I was like, wink, this is a contract play. But the way that they've talked about it, it seems like he is injured as well.

28:50Mike Wright:More details on the Mixon recovery. The most recent thing we said, Aaron Wilson from Texas Insider, Texans insider said uh it's been a long tough and complicated rehab it sounds like his rehab had been progressing and he had had injections and electromagnetic therapy to remove scar tissue and then it like plateaued and he sought those alternative you know rehab options in the medical world and his hunch is that it may take more time he doesn't think he's ready that doesn't mean mixin is off your draft board i mean jason just said it like he keeps dropping because yeah you don't know when this guy's going to be available you've heard nothing it's it's one of

29:32Jason Moore:those situations where assuming he gets healthy and plays football this year which maybe is not a guarantee but that's a presumption he's you know i don't think he misses the entire season even if he starts on the pup misses four games whenever he's back he's going to be the starting you know if he's able to play football he's going to be the starting running back for this team he is better than everyone else and they'll use him as a workhorse again is my belief so I do think he is relevant for fantasy and I'm very worried about making the

30:03Mike Wright:wrong decision with the rest of the backs there that I'm not sure that they're worth taking uh because I don't between Chubb and Pierce yeah like I I think that they're going to really truly split that work I think both guys will be on the field a lot and I just don't know if those are going to be wasted draft picks later on in the draft because, okay, you take those guys. You starting them? I mean, it just seems tough. I'd rather take Dylan Sampson than those two guys in Cleveland. Jaden Blue, low ankle sprain, which he already had an ankle sprain. Hopeful to be ready for week one. They were worried about high ankle.

30:43Mike Wright:It wasn't. But the Cowboys running back situation, you know,

30:48Andy Holloway:it's Javante. blue. It's Javante right now.

30:52Mike Wright:Jalen Wright not only can't run well, he can't run at all right now. Left leg injury week to week. Aiden O 'Connell, he's out and then there you go. I think that's all we have by way of news. We did get some news on the offensive line for the Falcons. That was pretty bad.

31:09Andy Holloway:The right tackle is going to miss significant time.

31:13Mike Wright:They had the second highest graded run blocking offensive line. There are a handful of offensive line situations and running backs this offseason that are concerning. You know, the Falcons injuries, but not just that. Like, we've talked about the Lions offensive line and missing interior pieces of that line.

31:35Jason Moore:So, Mike, an update here from this injury. You're on the clock right this second. You actually are on the 101, and you have to pick between Bijan and Saquon in our League of Record draft. How are you leaning? still B. John. Okay.

31:50Mike Wright:Okay. Yeah. I'm looking at the offensive line composite rankings right now for 2025. Number one, Philly. Number two, Denver. Number three, Tampa. Bottom three offensive lines.

32:10Andy Holloway:Still Tampa, even with Wirfs?

32:11Mike Wright:Wirfs is only missing. I mean, he's not even on Pup. Yeah. So, yeah, I'm sure to start the year in Tampa, that'll be a little bit of a problem but um still number four detroit and bottom three you want to take your shot uh texans texans are the worst yeah you should be able to figure out

32:32Andy Holloway:yeah dolphins are fifth fifth worst yeah but we didn't get those those were my two

32:38Mike Wright:you should be thinking about cincinnati oh yes you should not forget that of course Seattle, three, Giants, four, in terms of the worst. So that was today's news and notes sponsored by Progressive Insurance. Quote today at Progressive.com. Progressive casualty insurance company affiliates and third-party insurers not available in all states or situations. Coverage subject to policy terms, limits, and conditions. All right. We'll do this now.

33:08Mike Wright:Bus. It's not my favorite segment. I don't really, you know, week zero here, I don't like focusing on the negative. It's important, though.

33:18Jason Moore:It's important to get these right. I mean, if you drafted one of those picks that ruined people's seasons last year, then you wish you could avoid it and listen to last year's episode.

33:29Mike Wright:And on top of our, we each picked a bust player today, but on top of that, we also released a special episode on Saturday. Yeah. Which looks like it's going crazy right now. That's good.

33:39Andy Holloway:Yeah, we've been running a special mini-series only on YouTube called Just the Tips. And this one was about fades and it's highlighting situations that you should be fading almost every single year. And then who is in that scenario this year that you need to have at least have the antennae up in the air?

34:02Mike Wright:Well, I've gotten back to the time of year where unfortunately I am going to say Garrett Wilson's name. Oh, man.

34:09Andy Holloway:Garrett Wilson is my bust pick.

34:13Mike Wright:I'm sorry. I understand. He has everything, right? He's got talent. He's got ability. He's got a four-year contract worth$130 million with$90 million guaranteed. He's got the targets, the second most in NFL history through three years. That's cool. And I think the floor is good for Garrett Wilson, but I think you might be really, really disappointed with the ceiling this year. and um we because we've been there you know we got the aaron rogers experience he had a better season mostly due to seven touchdowns last year the year before i mean i don't know if we've ever seen a player i mean kyle might know this off the top of his head because he's weird but 168 targets during a year ending outside the top 30 at the position there's no way that's ever happened

35:00Jason Moore:that feels outside of that one year with garrett wilson like it is the most garrett wilson thing

35:05Mike Wright:ever that has been the story of his career get as many targets as humanly possible but you know the struggles in the preseason justin fields the passing game taylor ingstrand coming over from detroit i really believe the running game is going to be what everything's predicated on there if they have any success that's going to be where it's at in my opinion i think the shorter your targets i think the high target volume is going to be there i just don't know if you get the seven touchdowns. He's being drafted at wide receiver 15 in the third round. I personally would not feel cozy with him as my wide receiver one.

35:38Mike Wright:And so that's kind of the story with Garrett Wilson. I think, you know, it's just really hard to trust an erratic passer on a team you don't believe will win a lot of games. Fields is not going to put up 300 a game, right? He's not going to have the past attempts that make you super excited we this is the quarterback that was part of the difficult start of the year for george pickens who you guys love who you believe and in part you love because you trust dak prescott so you know pickens that is the negative case for fields we saw a good year for dj more so it's not outside the realm of possibilities but i'm just really worried about how often this team shows up in the red zone how often garrett wilson is able to you know

36:24Jason Moore:find himself in high value situations so i feel like defenses can put three guys on garrett wilson yeah maybe four you know it's like if i'm a defensive coach i go man dude we got 11 we got 11 players on this side of the ball they've got like two maybe uh like i i you know

36:43Andy Holloway:being hyperbolic but to actually do that you have you have to account for justin fields as the runner in the defense. So you can't just overload and not have someone making sure that he's not out there running.

36:56Mike Wright:Yeah, the over-underline on his touchdowns this year is four and a half on every sportsbook. So just for where they have that pegged, that's, you know, he can always outperform that, but the two previous years, three and four with bad quarterback play, lower volume, you know, if you get four and a half touchdowns, right, four or five touchdowns, you're probably going to be disappointed at wide receiver 15.

37:18Andy Holloway:Yeah, Yeah, the Garrett Wilson hope is the DJ Moore season from a couple years ago. But that was not super consistent. But you got huge spike weeks. But to only get a couple spike weeks for a third-round wide receiver, it's tough.

37:35Mike Wright:This is interesting, too. Kyle pulling up our consistency metrics in the UDK. But Fields, two, wide receiver, one. So that was DJ Moore and Pickens over their last 17 games with him. they only surpassed 10.5 fantasy points 33 percent of the time yeah there you go so their number one the number one receiver for fields that's a d in our consistency rankings and

37:55Jason Moore:kind of scares me and it makes me sad yeah and one of those years was i mean what a dj more finish like wide receiver six he had a great finish but it wasn't it still wasn't good for fantasy when you drafted him you did not at the end of the year go yay i drafted the wide receiver six

38:12Mike Wright:because you got it in like three games yeah that was it so yep that's my best pick Garrett

38:16Andy Holloway:Wilson I'm sorry it uh one two three four six you got six really good weeks right which is still

38:23Jason Moore:a shockingly bad number for the wide receiver six you would expect what did he finish at wide receiver six yes yeah I mean that's that's crazy that is crazy yeah yeah it was some big plays big

38:35Mike Wright:I mean these are good players right DJ Moore of course Garrett Wilson are superstars like they can absolutely break a game.

38:42Jason Moore:Well, I'll go next, and I'll throw out someone that I absolutely love. He is a talented player. He's going to be great. Can I get a paper bag? He is being overdrafted. I hate to say it, but Ashton Gentry, he should not be picked where he's being picked.

38:59Mike Wright:Papa Josh totally disagrees.

39:00Jason Moore:Yeah, of course. Wait, who has Ashton Gentry right now in the league? Yeah, okay. You know, last year I pointed this out with Marvin Harrison, which hurt because we love Marvin Harrison, but he was going to the back of the first round. What you have to do to pay off on your draft capital is be phenomenal. You have to hit metrics that are pretty wild for him and his situation to hit. You ask yourself on all these running backs. We've gone through and we've talked about all these guys. Can this player be a top five back? Can this player be a top five back? You don't ask the question on like Bijan or Saquon or most of the top five picks.

39:40Jason Moore:But you have to ask the question, can Ashton JT be a top five running back? And you probably answer, well, yeah, I think he can be.

39:48Mike Wright:That's how I would probably answer.

39:49Jason Moore:But he's being drafted as a top five back. It's not like hypothetical. He already is being drafted as a top five back. What does he have to do to pay off on that ADP? Well, over the last five years, a top five running back averaged 339 opportunities and 15.8 touchdowns. Do we expect Ashton Gentry with the Raiders to be anywhere near that? Every single top five back over the last five years, except for one, Brees Hall, who had 95 total targets, had double-digit touchdowns. So he basically has to get double-digit touchdowns because of where he's being drafted. You know, we look for certain checkboxes in fantasy.

40:29Jason Moore:Volume, yeah, he's got that. He was drafted great. He's got the talent. That's great. He could pass catch. That's great. Is he on a winning team? Probably not. They're in a very tough division. They're projected for six or six and a half wins, depending on which sportsbook you're looking at. Over the last eight years, we looked at every team with a preseason win total of six or fewer. okay there's 33 different teams what did their running backs produce for fantasy overall 21st in total running back fantasy points 27th in total running back rushing yardage only one player finished in the top five at the position that was 2017 Todd Gurley thanks to 19 touchdowns and some really surprising coach named Sean McVay you know he's this young little kid that nobody had ever heard of.

41:17Jason Moore:I think we know what Pete Carroll is. I like Pete Carroll. I've talked him up as a good coach. I think it was a good hire, but he's very old, and he's not going to surprise us with some crazy offense. The Raiders needed Ashton Gentile. Their running game was awful, but it wasn't just like, hey, they weren't good. They were the lowest expected points added per rush of any team for the last five years. Ashen Jensen is great, but he is in a situation where you do not expect them to be a 10-win team. You do not expect them to be scoring a ton of points, to have double-digit rushing touchdowns, and he's being drafted right now as the running back five.

42:01Mike Wright:It's just two. Sorry, go ahead.

42:03Jason Moore:I mean, more than likely, there's a good, easy path for him to be great and finish outside the top ten. If that happens, he's a flat-out bust. Josh Jacobs is good, right? Josh Jacobs is very good.

42:14Mike Wright:Yeah, he's 3.8 a carry there last time he was in Las Vegas.

42:17Jason Moore:Yeah. Also, Josh Jacobs being drafted well behind Ashen Gentry as a workhorse back on a great offense. Right. I don't know. One of those seems like a smarter pick to me.

42:26Mike Wright:So this time of year is when Jason just steps on the hopes and dreams of the young superstar.

42:32Jason Moore:Sometimes it's too easy. Like, I don't think we should be shocked when it doesn't work. and it's not because Ashton Gentry is bad. It's all market. It's all market. He's being overdrafted. And honestly, there's a lot of question marks once you get past the other, you know, the other five running backs in my opinion. And that's where I'd be looking at wide receiver, at that little middle to back end of the first round.

42:56Mike Wright:All right, we'll take a break and come back with Mike's pick. And I think I need to hear from Mike because I was starting to maybe go the other way.

43:06Andy Holloway:I know what you mean.

43:08Mike Wright:It's hard to do.

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43:53Andy Holloway:Sign up now. Games not included with DirecTV requires separate paid app subscriptions. Service renews monthly unless canceled. Local channels vary by market. Blackouts and other terms apply. Today's show is brought to you by our friends at Old Spice with the Old Spice NFL Collection. You may not be able to play in the NFL. I know. I'm sorry. But you can smell like you do with an Old Spice NFL Collection bringing you 24-7 game day freshness. Smell like an entire Pro Bowl roster with deodorant, body wash, 2-in-1 shampoo and conditioner, body spray, and lotion, all in new scents inspired by NFL legends.

44:30Andy Holloway:Old Spice, they have you covered. Are you feeling clutch? Matthew Stafford brings the Cedarwood or channel CeeDee Lamb scoring a winning touchdown with deep sea and dimes. Look, we have a bunch of this stuff at my house. I'm not joking. All of this Old Spice NFL collection. I, look, I'm an MVP guy. I guess I like smelling like Matthew Stafford. That's Cedarwood. I put it on. I put on the deodorant. And this is true. Gave the wife a hug goodbye. And she's like, what's going on? You smell great. I was like, that's because I smell like an MVP. I smell like Matthew Stafford. Looking for the greatest smell in the NFL?

45:08Andy Holloway:Go get the entire Old Spice NFL collection exclusively at Walmart.

45:16Mike Wright:All right, it is time for Mike to lay out his bust pick for 2025 on this show today. And it frightens me, Mike. It scares the living daylights out of me.

45:26Andy Holloway:It is terrifying because my bust pick this year, it's Patrick Mahomes, superstar quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs. And we're entering year nine. He's about to be 30 years old. And, Andy, I think what you're referring to before the break of maybe, like, oh, maybe things are going to be okay for Kansas City because they've – Mahomes has looked good.

45:49Mike Wright:Well, yeah, and big plays, you know, Taequann Thornton down the field.

45:54Andy Holloway:Oh, man.

45:56Mike Wright:He can turn any mediocre speedster into a star. He can. Justin Watson, McCall Hardman. Well, that's what I'm saying. Sky Moore is not in that level.

46:11Andy Holloway:But I think that's what's funny about that. I mean, that's the MVS. The Valdez-Scanling was on this team, and we thought, oh, maybe it can work out. Patrick Mahomes is kind of right now in drafts. He is the consolation quarterback. If you don't get the big four, Al Lamar, Jaden, and Jalen Hurts, and then Joe Burrow is next. I think ADP-wise, he's in his own little tier. And then if you don't get one of those five, then it's Patrick Mahomes. And it makes total sense of Mahomes previously was a fantasy football superstar. But here is what has happened to Patrick Mahomes. last year he did not finish in the top 12 until week nine Patrick Mahomes would have been a top three quarterback pick last year he posted career lows in yards yards per attempt and touchdown rate because the Chiefs have changed who they are as a football team they're winning with defense and ball control Kansas City has declined in average depth of target every single gear since Patrick Mahomes has become a starter when he took over the job we're at 9.1 this is incredible eight and a half oh and then we just keep dipping keep dipping and then we're just we're down to 6.4 he is last year was one of six quarterbacks with more than 19 percent of their attempts behind the line of

47:35Mike Wright:scrimmage to me to me Mahomes let me just interrupt because I want to ask the question because I've I already know how bad he's been right I know how bad he's been for two years for fantasy I just need to know that he's going to be bad again. Because with Mahomes, if they want to flip a certain switch, if they want to install a different software, he's the best in the league. He could do it tomorrow.

48:00Andy Holloway:That's why this is a terrifying pick.

48:02Jason Moore:Well, I would answer the question with a question, is their defense going to be elite? Because if their defense is great, which it's been the last couple years, I don't think they're going to flip that switch.

48:14Mike Wright:okay yeah so it i mean that that could be true and it comes down to you like with the and that cost the draft cost is in the gross spot right he's a fifth round pick you've got five guys that you love at the top you've got probably 10 guys you love at the back of the draft yes and here's patrick mahomes where you make basically a lifetime commitment to him in the fifth round

48:35Jason Moore:if there are players i would take if they both cost a dollar in an auction draft like i would rather have Dak Prescott personally than Patrick Mahomes for fantasy and that's regardless of draft cost it wow okay and and you're telling me I got to spend a fifth I didn't I thought I thought

48:51Andy Holloway:Mahomes was lower than that and the fifth round is just ADP wise it's so juicy right now Travion Henderson RJ Harvey Tedaro McMillan Jamison Williams George Pickens like there are guys right in that range that I really, really want to get on my team. And I feel like I'm just settling for Patrick Mahomes because of three years ago. If he hits what he hit three years ago in the fifth round, he's probably the best pick in fantasy football. But that's a big, big question.

49:24Mike Wright:I wanted to look at Brady because, you know, what are the last two years in fantasy finish for Mahomes? Do you have those in front of you?

49:32Andy Holloway:Yeah, let me – he was the wide receiver 11. He plays wide receiver? No, he was not. He was the quarterback 11 and 8, but both of those were at 17.5 and 17.6 points per game.

49:44Mike Wright:I, you know, Brady – Not difference maker. Brady did this, and this is not me arguing for Mahomes. I'm just saying it's like Brady would have a year at 14, a year at 12, a year at 8, then a year at 3. He'd have a year at 13, a year at 9, then a year at 2. And it was like – you know he's capable of it? at any time. And yet, the better decision for your team is probably if you had to start a guy every single week, I'd rather start Jared Goff.

50:10Andy Holloway:You spend the fifth on Mahomes. How many games do you play where you're like, I think it's going to turn around? You just keep playing him over and over and suddenly you're what if you're four weeks in? Over and over. You go through to the face. It took until week nine to get a top 12 performance from him last year. If you're waiting four or five weeks, it will be devastating to just keep starting him over and over. He could. They could flip the switch, and they say we want to pile on the stats for Patrick Mahomes, but it's a dangerous proposition. How many games in a row convince you that you're wrong?

50:52Andy Holloway:That's what I'm asking. No, no, no. No, no, no. He's asking you.

50:57Mike Wright:You answer me. I will answer. I'm saying to the point of you're like, how many would you believe? I'm saying like you don't draft him, but he's out there. And it's like that he's back.

51:08Jason Moore:If he has the great week one, do you believe? Does it take five weeks?

51:13Mike Wright:I'm just curious to where we go.

51:16Jason Moore:Oh, OK. They are throwing it deep. They are going to open it up. I'm in on Patrick Mahomes.

51:20Andy Holloway:Probably two to put probably two. But now here we have another caveat. When is Rasheed Rice going to get suspended? Like every other game seems like for two years. Seems like after week four.

51:31Mike Wright:That would be the dopest suspension ever. You got eight games. Every other.

51:36Jason Moore:What if suspensions... We want your team messed up. What if you could pick... Oh, you could pick whatever games? You need to miss eight games a season. Whenever you want. Whenever you want. Oh, that's funny. Do you backload them in case you get injured? Oh, no. You're picking out some duds.

51:53Mike Wright:It's an insult to the other team. Yeah. Every time they're like... We're going to take a suspension game on this one? Caroline's like, okay.

52:02Andy Holloway:All right. That's bulletin board material every week. So say Patrick Mahomes goes out and has four nuclear games to start. Yeah. And then Rice is gone. Right.

52:13Mike Wright:It's mixed in. Yeah.

52:15Andy Holloway:So does everything just completely drop off? Does he keep being Mahomes?

52:20Jason Moore:Ironically, he had Rice to start last year and the first three weeks, and he was the quarterback 13, 14, 15. So he is at a point.

52:30Mike Wright:They play the Chargers week one on the road, then Philly. Those are the first two weeks. Then you go on the road against the Giants. That's a terrible defense to play. Then Baltimore, terrible defense to play. First four weeks, favored, but real tough games.

52:44Andy Holloway:He had been this player where I always skip over him in drafts, and it got to the point where, okay, well, I guess I just have to verbalize it because I don't want to draft him. and here you are verbalizing so yeah look fade patrick mahomes at your own peril but blame mike if it goes it's what i'm doing this year really well for him you know it makes sense

53:06Mike Wright:so what are some of the other picks that we have here from the foot clan we've got devon aidchan is a popular answer on the foot clan discord it makes sense with the current injury it doesn't the vibes are bad right now but could still be very good for a speedy running back are

53:21Jason Moore:not an injury I want.

53:22Mike Wright:Apparently Garrett Wilson and Ashton Gentry are two of the top five on the Discord. Saquon and Tyreek are the other two names.

53:30Jason Moore:Yeah, Tyreek makes a lot of sense. He's going to be a boom or bust pick this year, but he's being drafted, at least with Tyreek, like, he's not being drafted. Saquon's being drafted like he's going to be the running back one again, obviously.

53:43Andy Holloway:Because Saquon... Yeah, he didn't

53:45Jason Moore:look bad last year.

53:46Andy Holloway:The only thing that can stop Saquon is getting hurt and the numbers of the workload from last year going to this year. They aren't great, but he is Saquon Barkley. Some guys are just different.

53:58Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, you nailed it. The only thing that stops Saquon Barkley is injury. He hasn't lost anything. He's not in a situation where he could go out there and be bad, but Tyree Kill could be done.

54:11Andy Holloway:Yes, that is very possible.

54:13Mike Wright:Did you catch Malik Washington doing some work in

54:16Andy Holloway:the preseason yeah he uh yeah he's a he is a nasty boy hey you just kind of you could see things

54:23Mike Wright:working out where he i mean he's a shifty dude i mean he can i love malik he can make plays and and you don't have johnny so i don't know what darren waller is tyreek hill could be like already prepping for the you know for his boat to go out onto the ocean and leave this team i Malik Washington's a little bit one of those sneaky dudes at the end of drafts.

54:47Jason Moore:I still think Jalen Waddell can be a very good post-type sleeper.

54:51Mike Wright:He could be the number one on that team, for sure. I think you're kind of getting to this point now where this is one of the reasons why you should mark players off in the UDK. There's just some names that you should pay attention to that are not going to move up at all in ADP and catch your eye, so you need to mark them. For me, some names are Keon Coleman.

55:10Jason Moore:Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. We got undrafted gems tomorrow. You sure you want to get them all out there now? I mean, you decide. What other names you got, Andy?

55:19Mike Wright:I was on a roll. I was on a roll. All right. Who else you got? I'll do ones we've talked about. How about Ollie Gordon? Yeah. He's not going to be anywhere in ADP, but you could throw him on the end of your bench. He may start week one.

55:29Andy Holloway:Yes. Right? He is a priority late round draft.

55:32Mike Wright:And another one I already mentioned, Iow Manor in Tennessee, who made plays again. Epic Iow Manor. Hopefully. None of that sounds like a name. You know what I mean?

55:43Jason Moore:Yeah.

55:43Mike Wright:Like none of the name sounds like a name.

55:45Jason Moore:If you say Epic Isle Manor, I'm like, what are you trying to tell me right now? Right.

55:50Mike Wright:You're not like you're talking about a person. Mm-mm. No. Pat Bryant. There's one more. Okay, I'll shut up now. Head over to Megalobowl.com. Join us in the 2025 Megalobowl if you'd like. You can learn about the leagues and how to get in there, the drafting days. When's the first drafting day starting, Jason? do you know the answer to that because i believe it is on saturday yes saturday saturday there's a couple of drafts sunday a couple of drafts monday a couple tuesday and then wednesday so get over there get placed in a league megalobull.com and if you have drafts coming up i was actually a little surprised did you guys see the poll i threw up on twitter no

56:32Andy Holloway:oh that drafts have a lot of drafts have not happened not happened like historically maybe

56:37Jason Moore:we're getting smarter as an as the people yeah we should we should push drafts back to at least this coming weekend where all the preseason is over most the injuries are going to be fully out of the way clarity has been had it's just tough because once you hit august you just you itch for it and you want to draft so bad i mean but this coming weekend is the best weekend to draft 17 percent of people uh on saturday had already done their draft 26 percent had it this past weekend

57:03Mike Wright:and 57 % are sometime in the future, which is what we're doing. We're Labor Day.

57:09Jason Moore:And you labeled that with their most important draft?

57:13Mike Wright:I did. I said, when is your main league draft? That's a good point. A lot of us have lots of drafts. We have three slow drafts going right now. Yes, sir. I do like the slow draft.

57:23Jason Moore:Oh, yeah. For not your main league, for these extra leagues that you're in, that's the way to do it.

57:29Mike Wright:I just feel like every fifth time I'm on the clock, though sleeper forgets to notify me i don't i don't know why that happens pay attention bold predictions episodes coming up the fantasy time machine undrafted gyms the fantasy mvp episode with some special guests on that show coming this week and uh pick up the ultimate draft kit if you haven't drafted ultimate draft kit.com that'll do it thank you for joining us one and all catch you tomorrow goodbye everybody

58:07Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at The FF Ballers.

58:23Andy Holloway:Today's show is brought to you by our friends at Old Spice with the Old Spice NFL Collection. You may not be able to play in the NFL. I know. I'm sorry. But you can smell like you do with an Old Spice NFL collection bringing you 24-7 game day freshness. Smell like an entire Pro Bowl roster with deodorant, body wash, 2-in-1 shampoo and conditioner, body spray, and lotion, all in new scents inspired by NFL legends. Old Spice, they have you covered. Are you feeling clutch? Matthew Stafford brings the Cedarwood. Or channel CeeDee Lamb scoring a winning touchdown with Deep Sea and Dimes. Look, we have a bunch of this stuff at my house I'm not joking All of this Old Spice NFL collection I, look, I'm an MVP guy I guess I like smelling like Matthew Stafford That's cedar wood I put it on I put on the deodorant And this is true Gave the wife a hug goodbye And she's like, what's going on?

59:20Andy Holloway:You smell great I was like, that's because I smell like an MVP I smell like Matthew Stafford Looking for the greatest smell in the NFL? Go get the entire Old Spice NFL collection exclusively at Walmart.