Fantasy Football - AFC East Breakdown + Late Round Strategy - Podcast for 7/10

8:59Mike Wright:If they're going to get some work in the offense anyways, and then they benefit from an injury and become a top 15 back, that's my ideal situation. Although I think Garendo in particular, I would definitely target. a player dealing with achilles tendinitis in both of your legs is a player i'm going to make sure that i'm protected it's also relative to the investment right like there's two sides of it there's okay i want the ceiling because if somebody else happens to get hurt i got two good guys now but that predicates your guy staying healthy yeah but there's the other side if you don't insure that back and i mean imagine the other situation you have christian mcafree and you go out and get a backup for somebody else when mccaffrey gets hurt you have a backup for somebody else and their starter isn't hurt yeah you have nothing so it's a little bit of a and they're all

9:48Andy Holloway:insurance things are for what ifs what if it if someone gets hurt and then that doesn't even factor in okay you draft who you think you're like i got my insurance guy i'm i am locked and loaded now think of your bench management throughout the season that bench spot now goes to that one player You know what the rules of life are because you're the main character. The injury will happen as soon as you drop him.

10:12Mike Wright:Exactly. That's why the answer to me is neither in most cases. Just get somebody that I believe will have trade value, that I believe will have opportunity, but still stands alone and doesn't just sit there like a lump on my bench just waiting for bad things to happen.

10:26Jason Moore:I would say this year, more than in recent years, there's not many. Jordan Mason's a great asset, but I don't view him as just an insurance back. yeah this year when i'm looking at like what are who are the insurance backs that i want okay garendo obvious situation there trey benson i i think you've got an older commonly injured james connor ahead of him and and the news has been good out of camp yeah i think he'd be great draft trey

10:53Mike Wright:benson though if you weren't the connor manager yeah i have a hard time seeing somebody i mean because i mean it just depends on what round you're in such a waste of a bench spot for i i

11:02Jason Moore:I mean, obviously, if there is not an injury to Connor, you're getting nothing out of him. It's a matter of how deep is the league, what round are you in, who else is available. I'm not going to take Trey Benson over Jordan Mason, who could actually be valuable. Is Marshawn Lloyd? Probably not. I don't think so. I mean, Will Shipley, but then is it A.J. Dillon? I don't think there's a lot of... Sure, is it Kareem Hunt? Or, you know, they drafted a guy and they've still got Elijah Mitchell there. there aren't a lot i'm most of the situations there's really like i feel like it's it's just

11:38Andy Holloway:kind of not a factor this year yeah and another way to look at it is braylon allen is you're when you're drafting someone like that you you might just be setting your team up for week one if you stay with us throughout the season in the show we talk about uh in season like hey these are the players on Friday that I'm going to toss on the back of my bench and let the weekend play out that's the best way and and then we're also we'll get to a point in the season because we will we will get these questions every single week is it time we we start talking about how we're handling our leagues personally okay it's week whatever eight I don't know yeah my team's looking really good for the playoffs and at this point I'm looking to to uh shape my team with some safety I want that safety net on the team.

12:28Andy Holloway:I'm not looking for an additional ceiling player at this time. So, you know, you've got to stick with the show. It's not a – yeah, there is absolutely no white-black binary decision for this.

12:41Mike Wright:You know, Jason says it every year. We say it every year. You don't win your league at the draft. Your selection of the backup, it's really going to get hard because if you have other injuries on your team, you cannot afford to roster somebody that you're just waiting for somebody to get hurt. But I just looked at every team.

12:56Jason Moore:there are very few that's what i'm saying tyler algier yeah that's a good one would be someone that a bijon injury but but bijon being so young and built for a workhorse duty you just don't presume injury there as easy as you do with like a like a saquon who's older coming off and you

13:14Mike Wright:know a crazy workload and some of the other backs that you might want that don't profile to be the RB1 necessarily are not quite in that category of pure backup undrafted you know the Jalen Warren Caleb Johnson situation both will get drafted right and there's a lot of those um Eckler with Brian Robinson Jr but Eckler won't go the same place that a you know a pure backup like Algier would go so um don't over prioritize it yeah I think that's the biggest thing but a gurindo I I would grab Garenda. I would grab Garenda. All right, let's talk some news.

13:52Mike Wright:News and notes from around the league. It's a little funny that I'm saying grab Garenda because of all the teams that have surprised us with different backups over the years when players get hurt. Yes. They 49ers. And that's what I mean. Are one of them.

14:05Andy Holloway:We assume it's Garenda right now. By the time week one hits, that might not be true.

14:11Mike Wright:All right, a little bit of news for you. Dak Prescott says he is fully healthy and will be a full participant at the start of training camp, which is great.

14:22Andy Holloway:Have you seen him talking about George? Yeah. He's loving him some George Pickens right now.

14:28Mike Wright:Yeah, we all love George at this time of year, man. This is George's time. But I think he's got great potential with Dak. Tristan Worfs, Buccaneers all-pro left tackle, likely going to miss the first couple of games of the regular season. That is not something you want to hear when it comes to protecting Mr. Baker Mayfield or the runners there, Bucky Irving trying to get off to a hot start. He had surgery. Tristan worsted on his right knee on Tuesday. So pay attention to those lines. They will get them back though. This one, I it's hard. It's hard to buy it, but I'll report it. Zach Jackson believes Jerome Ford is quote, at the starter for now and will still play and probably start early in the season.

15:16Andy Holloway:Cleveland Browns, Jerome Ford, the team that just spent a second round pick on Quinshawn Judkins.

15:21Mike Wright:And barely, barely brought Jerome Ford back to this roster.

15:24Jason Moore:They had him take a price cut. They said, hey, you want to come back? We don't want to pay you what you're...

15:32Mike Wright:And he said yes because no one else will pay him.

15:35Jason Moore:Right, exactly. So, I don't know. this is the time of year where you're always going to be like the rookie is going to have to prove it and then they prove it.

15:45Mike Wright:Judkins was the one that we said wasn't going to have to prove it and then this report came out the next day. It's annoying.

15:51Andy Holloway:It is something to pay attention to though as like we'll see if that drumbeat gets louder. Like Jerome Ford when he's the starter he has been

16:02Jason Moore:quite fantasy relevant yeah it it matters and especially like for the judkins right yeah like i personally matter more for that after this report i did not change my like i have judkins as the week one starter and if this continues up you know through training camp into preseason and it really seems like that obviously i will adjust those rankings i do not take this kind of guesswork report as you know this isn't coming from the head coach saying jerome ford's our dude yeah we're

16:34Mike Wright:going to learn all these situations with the rookies are going to be told you know we'll get a lot more information when you see who's running with the first team throughout camp and where the trust levels are and what the coaches say and this is just stage one speculation but um you know they're all they're all going to have to prove themselves henderson judkins everyone but genti

16:51Andy Holloway:right he's good he proved it yeah he did that in college yeah all right we are going to i would throw in this real quick this joe mixon news uh i think brooks just dropped this in for us that there's reports that he should be ready for training camp but he is dealing with foot ankle issues and someone who yeah he was in a walking boot a couple weeks ago i said he had ankle issues last year and you know some of the late season decline is being called upon you're like hey remember he had an ankle issue so for it to already or still be bothering him you got we got to keep an eye on it all right we are going to take a quick break

17:31Mike Wright:and we're going to jump into our afc east breakdown

17:44Mike Wright:let's get divisional

17:49Mike Wright:all right this is our third episode this time breaking down the afc east we're looking at those big offseason changes to the rosters players rookies coaches looking at the offenses our expectations and how they could function the big questions around these four teams within the afc east and how they're going to impact your fantasy football team and then we'll weigh in with our you know order of how we think the division is going to finish last year like it has for i believe five straight years yep buffalo wins it 13 and 4 last year a uh a runaway division winner and they've won the AFC East five straight years.

18:36Mike Wright:Like I said, it's been a really good run. I mean, since 2019, they made the playoffs in 2019 and then they won five straight divisions. And so you've got six years in the playoffs and six years of falling short, coming up short. So that's been kind of hanging over the bills now for a couple of years, getting through the AFC. can this be the year that they get you know all the way into the super bowl i mean every year it's it's kind of you look at them and you look at their roster and you say this is certainly they're one of the favorites that's kind of where they've been 13 and 40 year they had a projected win total last year of 10 and a half it's up to 11 and a half this year number two in points per game i think last year one of the big storylines was hey what does josh allen do without stefan digs and the answer is when the mvp oh excellent so big questions around buffalo have to do with fantasy players discerning value beyond josh allen to me yes because josh allen he's he's locked and loaded as a you know you take him high in drafts if you want to you know what you're getting with josh allen but beyond that the pass catchers you literally don't know what you're because you've got players like Dalton Kincaid that are disappointed and a whole hodgepodge of wide receivers.

19:58Mike Wright:Khalil Shakir, yes, it was kind of a breakout, but it wasn't a hugely impactful fantasy breakout. And Keon Coleman, rookie wide receiver, a lot of expectations, gets banged up, has a disappointing rookie year. They add Joshua Palmer, and then Dalton Kincaid's story has been nothing but fantasy disappointment thus far.

20:17Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, there's not a lot to love from a great, isn't it weird great offense i think it shows how good josh allen is that he's got this hodgepodge of you know skill position guys and he i mean the hodgepodge has two first round pass catchers well i'm just saying quality talent they they're trying they're trying to you know they took keon coleman in the first that doesn't make keon coleman a really good player he's the question mark on the bills he's the guy that's like can he step up and become someone great or not and i i think most people after that rookie season were not bullish on keon coleman saying like oh he's

21:02Mike Wright:going to be he's going to be absolutely elite 29 or 29 receptions that's not a lot that was really that was it yeah that was it and i mean he had big plays for the team and then you had the news that he chipped a bone in his wrist in week nine, which is going to be, you know, food for the excuse makers. But it is a little strange that you have, like, the best three teams, I think, in the AFC, Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City. They all have, like, a hodgepodge of pass catchers.

21:36Jason Moore:It's no longer the Travis Kelsey and Tyree Kill dominating on the best offense.

21:40Mike Wright:Or Diggs, or, you know, or even Mark Andrews.

21:43Jason Moore:they've figured out how to piece together once you're paying for your quarterback, just a room of people that's acceptable for your great quarterback. But for fantasy purposes, that's not great. And furthermore, I think for fantasy purposes, I worry about this offense because of how much they want to run the ball, succeed running the ball, win running the ball. You look at Josh Allen over the last several years, and yeah, he was great last year. He was fantastic. But he wasn't the quarterback one or two last year for the first time in forever. He was the quarterback four, and he didn't throw for well over 4 ,000 yards like he was every year.

22:20Jason Moore:He threw for 3 ,700 yards. And it's like, if the team is really good, which they project to be good, they've got the fifth easiest strength of schedule projected coming into this year. I think it's going to be more of the same where you're not really finding super fantasy gold on this roster outside of Josh Allen being a top five quarterback. And hopefully you get a ton of rushing touchdowns from whichever running back you've decided to invest in.

22:47Mike Wright:Which isn't, I mean, the James Cook discussion is one to be had. Passing percentage last year, they were 29th in the NFL. Yucky doo-doo. In 2022, they ran it 43 % of the time. 2023 they ran at 52 percent of the time last year right at 55 so that lowers your guaranteed passing game production that you were getting week to week he's not that he's not going to have games where it's it's you know outrageous and wonderful that happens but it's not as

23:20Jason Moore:guaranteed when you pass at that level it's funny because right now josh allen is still being drafted average draft position as the number one quarterback and i'm not sure he should be i mean obviously lamar jackson smoked him last year but i mean i don't know i'm i i he's my number one he is not my number one but he i mean this isn't an anti i'm gonna double check it what was he

23:43Andy Holloway:through week 17 because he didn't play the final week of the year um yeah that's correct he played

23:48Mike Wright:the one snap remember because he wanted to keep the the game's streak in a row so it messes up his fantasy finish because i think it was on a points per game basis he was pretty he had a couple of those dead games that that they didn't need him baltimore miami on the roads single digit performances but you know plenty of number one overalls and you know the the number that stands out to you is the total passing yardage on the season he was a 45 44 42 43 and it's 37 last

24:20Andy Holloway:year so 3700 points per game weeks one through 17 and this is a six point passing touchdown he was at 26.8 qb3 joe burrow was 27.7 for qb2 and lamar 30 points yeah yeah i mean yeah just lamar had an outlier year though lamar did have an outlier year but you would expect lamar

24:42Jason Moore:right now to throw for more yards and run for more yards so i mean that's just when when you're looking at the the value in a draft and you you're deciding whether to take these big expensive quarterbacks I lean Lamar over Josh Allen right now with how the bills as a team look like they're

25:02Andy Holloway:set up to win so then when you're looking at the pass catchers do you have a pick I would for a guy who could actually step like Shakir got the the bag Coleman is the second year I mean I would I still take my shot on Coleman and hope. Coleman over Kincaid?

25:20Jason Moore:Yeah, personally. I think, you know, I hopefully Kincaid.

25:24Mike Wright:Yeah, Shakir's back came after a wide receiver 39 season. Right.

25:27Jason Moore:And he was.

25:29Mike Wright:With a handful of weeks that you cared.

25:31Jason Moore:He was very good for this team. Right. And he was the wide receiver 39. I think your only hope for a fantasy difference maker is that Coleman develops into something. Special touchdowns. Exactly. Yeah, I'm with you. 10, 11, 12 touchdowns.

25:47Mike Wright:Completely agree with that. I think that Coleman is the shot to take, and you're also going to – that shot's going to come in the 11th, 12th round of fantasy drafts. It's not going to come in the 7th round or the 6th round, where Shakir might represent the best target chair. I think I'm with that. I mean, I do think Dalton Kincaid is sitting there as a bounce-back candidate personally.

26:07Jason Moore:A post-type sleeper?

26:08Mike Wright:Yeah, I mean, he's going to be free. He's going to be somebody that you can take a shot at. It was not kind of bad, though. It was real, real bad. It was a pretty useless bad kind of situation for Kincaid.

26:22Jason Moore:I mean, tight ends are usually, you're talking, you're going to catch 70 % of the balls. You're going to catch 75 % of your passes. The way that you're utilized, it's a lot of easy stuff. Now, there was more downfield stuff with Dolan Kincaid, but he caught 58 % of his passes, and he didn't do much with it. It's not like, oh, well, because he was catching 58 % of his pass, he's getting 14 yards per reception. He's at 10 yards per reception. He was terrible. And I hope he was injured.

26:54Andy Holloway:Wasn't there something? Yeah, there was a report.

26:55Jason Moore:There was something that he was injured. But I'm just hoping it's real and not just the excuse. He missed three games with a knee. But, yeah, there was something.

27:04Andy Holloway:There's a story floating around. Watching him last year, it was just so clear he wasn't it. And it was clear they were trying to make Dalton Kikade happen, though. Like, they kept having these designs.

27:16Mike Wright:It's funny because it feels like Pitts.

27:18Andy Holloway:Sure. It feels like Pitts.

27:19Mike Wright:I mean, Kyle Pitts, lots of downfield rounds, try to connect to him on those stuff. But when those don't hit, you have a horrible week. But at least you have a roster of pass catchers where you have the opportunity to be maybe the best one. Yeah. Like, he could legitimately.

27:35Jason Moore:Lead the team in targets.

27:36Mike Wright:Yeah, you have that chance here. You don't have digs, and Shakir's not that intimidating. Coleman, 29 catches last year. So that's a possibility. Looking at James Cook, the big storyline for him this offseason has been touchdown regression. He had 300 % times his – And financial regression. Well, yeah, he's trying to get financial progression, but he hasn't got it yet. But 16 rushing touchdowns. I'd like this to return to the mean, please. So let's be intellectually consistent here. We know how much they want to run the football. That's why you're being discouraged about certain aspects of the passing game.

28:10Mike Wright:That is all directly translating into the value of James Cook and Ray Davis and whomever they want to get involved in the offense, Ty Johnson.

28:19Jason Moore:What you just said is where the pessimism comes in, is that they have three running backs that are all three legitimately involved, not like just a sprinkling in a smidge. James Cook was the running back eight. Awesome. James Cook played 45 % of the snaps. You know, he's in a mega timeshare.

28:44Andy Holloway:And how 18 total touchdowns to put you at the running back eight is troubling.

28:51Mike Wright:But what does that regression look like? If you're going to be a run-heavy offense where he is definitely the most talented player. I mean, he was almost five a carry last year. And these touchdowns didn't all just come in one game. You had so many of them that there were four games in the entire year he didn't score. So that says to me, it's like he was the running back eight. He's being drafted as a running back 14. If that goes from 16 total touchdowns to, I guess he had 18 total, 16 on the ground. But if it drops to 12, which is super reasonable for a team that was number two in points per game.

29:25Jason Moore:He'll be great if it drops to 12. If it drops to seven, which I think is totally in the range of outcomes for him, considering he had had what his career high was two before last year. Am I misremembering that? I mean, crazy low.

29:38Mike Wright:Yeah, the year before, he had a higher snap percentage in total. And went from two to 16.

29:44Andy Holloway:He had six total touchdowns in 2023, but he had two on the ground. So I'm going to go look at ADP.

29:50Mike Wright:He's in the fourth round, RB14.

29:53Andy Holloway:These are the couple running backs going right before James Cook. Do you prefer James Cook over any of these guys? Let's go Kyron. I would take Kyron. Chase Brown. I would take Chase Brown. Brees. I would take James Cook.

30:07Mike Wright:Yeah, I would too. I'm in agreement with everything I said.

30:09Andy Holloway:And then directly after James Cook, Ken Bone Walker. I would take James Cook. I'd take James Cook. Alvin Kamara.

30:16Mike Wright:I'd probably take Cook.

30:18Andy Holloway:Joe Mixon.

30:19Mike Wright:Mixon.

30:20Jason Moore:I would rather have Mixon at that value later in a draft.

30:22Andy Holloway:It's the same round though. uh i would probably take mixon ahead of cook okay that one's close so then adp wise even though we're we are concerned about the regression seems like he's going that's kind of why i brought it up

30:34Mike Wright:he's not being drafted as rba he's not being drafted with those expectations and and you know there are you got to reward a player in some ways for what they do right like not just i don't like just not financially i just don't like like he's got such a brief career i don't want to just look at the first two seasons and be like, his average touchdowns per year for his career is going to be two. That's not a reasonable situation. In fact, last year, one of the reasons he was a favorite in fantasy drafts was because we saw that number as ridiculous.

31:06Jason Moore:Yeah. We knew it was going to go up. But you also have to – he's 190 pounds back. So it's like he doesn't project to be a 16 rushing touchdown type of guy.

31:16Mike Wright:Right. So they start the year against Baltimore. That's going to be fun. I think that's the first game of the year. Well done, NFL. So Baltimore at home first week, and then the Jets, Miami, and New Orleans.

31:31Andy Holloway:He had seven touchdowns from inside the five. Yeah. Wait, who's home?

31:37Jason Moore:Is it Baltimore or in Buffalo?

31:39Mike Wright:It's in Buffalo. Awesome. And then it's the Jets on the road and the Miami and New Orleans at home. So, you know, still definitely the favorites in this division. they you know sean mcdermott's been there a long time nine years joe brady continues what got them a lot of success last year and you know what is it uh brandon bean is that their general manager am i getting the first name right here there's too many beans doing general managing carl said correct for you you know he is so annoyed with the view that they don't have the weapons they need on the offensive side of the football because and and for good measure you go out and you score the second most points in the in the league you get an mvp at quarterback you succeed and then it's like your expectation is we got to find somebody flashier at wide receiver no you got to win a super bowl yeah you got to win a super bowl so uh miami eight and nine somehow last year their win total though before the season projected for 10 by vegas which um they didn't accomplish this year it's at eight and a half does that surprise you at all or is more indicative of just the AFC East because that's how it feels to me yeah I mean you got

32:48Andy Holloway:the Jets and the Pats you would think that Miami should pull out four wins there at least three

32:57Mike Wright:last year was a step back on offense 22nd points per game 18th in yards per game the big plays for Miami they evaporated they had only 45 total plays all year long of 20 plus yards that is the opposite of what you expected from Miami, that was 31st in the NFL. Cool. So you basically became the least explosive team.

33:17Jason Moore:Yeah. Least explosive down the field, and then also you couldn't run the ball in the short yardage area. 31st in EPA per rush, 30th in percentage of runs stuffed at the line because their offensive line was bad.

33:30Mike Wright:Yeah, so for the record, the least fun team to watch most of the time last year was Miami. If you cannot run the football.

33:38Jason Moore:after week one week one was awesome they come out two is looking good he gets injured in week two

33:42Mike Wright:and when he came back it was like please don't make me watch that no it kind of reminded you of like when uh new orleans was going through different quarterbacks and you just have to watch it just takes so long to get down the field yeah and they couldn't run so you know their defense their defense was pretty good that's one of the reasons why they could pull off an eight nine season well no ramsey now no ramsey but they had uh minka on that trade mike mcdaniel probably a hot seat coach at this point or close to it a warming seat yeah his his his took us is a little warm and their oc frank smith yep yeah sorry frank is that like a generic name yeah yeah it

34:28Andy Holloway:really is that what no offense mr smith but yeah that my name is frank smith sure it is

34:35Mike Wright:what's your real name i sell insurance yeah like that's that's my burner name um player subtractions this year johnny smith raheem mostard is gone and they added darren waller

34:51Mike Wright:they added nick westbrook akine to the wide receiver room from tennessee and they added

34:56Andy Holloway:Alexander Madison they loved Waller's tape from last year so we got to get that guy on the team

35:02Mike Wright:yeah supposedly Waller only wanted to play for Miami to come back yeah so which is is good

35:08Jason Moore:because there were there were quotes about I don't know if you remember how he ended up like walking away deciding he doesn't want to play football but it was basically he was in there and they were calling a bunch of run plays in a row and he's like why am I in here blocking and then he's like I don't want to play football anymore this guy wants to like that was from waller you're a tight end bro no no he's sometimes he's a pass catcher he's he's he is so the fact that he is like i'm willing to come back but i only want to go to miami makes me feel like at least you know he's looking at the johnny smith target machine from last year i think he had 111 targets something like that and hoping that he can fill that role now 33 year old darren waller who wasn't that great last time we saw him i don't expect him to even be able to replicate johnny Smith from this last year.

35:55Jason Moore:But it is worth noting he might be more involved than we think in the target pecking order.

36:02Mike Wright:Yeah, when you lose Giannu, we've been talking about target consolidation with Waddle, Tyreek, A-chan. If the storyline with Tyreek is that target consolidation does not equal more explosive plays again and Tyreek's kind of done, then that is even more of an argument to why Waller could have a role. None of us have him ranked in a way that we're foreseeing that right now. Correct.

36:26Andy Holloway:And you guys might have a different opinion, but me watching Tyree Kill, the film, I don't look at him, I'm like, it's totally gone. It just didn't... I never saw anything that made me think he was gone at all. It was such a perplexing situation. No, he still seems... Okay, maybe he's not... Maybe he's not as fast, but he still seemed fast enough to be putting up more plays than he did.

36:57Jason Moore:I mean, yeah, he wasn't slow, but he didn't do what Tyreek did so much every single year prior, including the year prior, which is run away from people. I know he had the wrist injury, but it's like, how does that, you know, how does the wrist injury really cause, maybe it was one of those things where they're not going to run him deep because a deep pass is less likely to be caught. I don't know, but once he had the ball in his hands, I felt like he was a little bit different.

37:24Mike Wright:He had the third fastest time in the NFL on the field last year. It was weird. In week five, hit 22.01 miles per hour, which, by the way, his teammate, Devon Achan, was the fourth highest at 21.93 during the season, and that's a good transition into the running game. And whether Devon Achan can be a true RB1 for your team.

37:46Andy Holloway:Yep. Yeah, he can.

37:48Mike Wright:And hold up. You know, the injury concerns are fair with Devon H. And if you have to rely on him to that degree, any player is going to be more vulnerable for injury. But last year he did hold up.

38:00Jason Moore:Let me tell you the target counts for Devon H. And with Tua playing seven targets, seven, eight, eight, five, four, four, nine, seven, seven, seven. It's like a, you know, call that number. But those are like outrageous. seven targets a game is delicious those those are great 29 of his routes um he was targeted that is fantasy gold a target is worth two and a half times a carry and so i i really like i'm very bullish on on h and this year especially the post johnny smith trade yeah and they're they're you

38:42Mike Wright:know when you talked about the quick question of the day the backup situation with madison there and then Jalen Wright. Theirs is a perfect example of if you have Achan, it's really tough to take a shot at who you think would be the backup because it's going to be – it'll be a committee if Achan went down. It won't just be one guy. We've seen that.

39:01Andy Holloway:Jalen Wright needs to – I think Jalen Wright's a – he's an interesting guy to put at the back of your bench just in case in a draft and see what happens in week one, but he will need to improve dramatically.

39:14Mike Wright:Massively. And Madison was unfortunately effective. He's just – He's a fine player. He can catch the football. He's like if you get the default settings in Madden for a running back and you haven't added points to anything else, you just get the – everything across the board is just regular. That's how I view Madison.

39:35Jason Moore:Yeah, I think that was true two years ago, and then one of the little bars got removed on each one of those topics. He was good last year.

39:45Mike Wright:He was better last year than the year before.

39:47Jason Moore:He was scoring touchdowns. I think that I don't like how the coaches talk about Alexander Madison in the positive. They're including him very much as part of their plans. I don't think he's that good. I hope it's Ollie Gordon. They spent a six-round pick on Ollie Gordon. This was a player who two years ago looked like he was going to be a sensational, young, big-bodied running back and then had a down year last year, fell to the sixth round. But hopefully he could do something. That would be a little bit more exciting. But I agree with the assertion that you don't have any idea who the firm backup is, and there probably isn't one should H.N.

40:30Jason Moore:go down.

40:31Mike Wright:Mostert and Madison just swapped spots. Did you realize that? Yeah. They just flip teams to be backups on the person's team. Who would you rather have?

40:40Andy Holloway:Save to the M.

40:41Mike Wright:I'd rather have Mostert.

40:42Andy Holloway:Yeah. I'd rather have Mostert. Even at this age?

40:46Mike Wright:Yeah, just because there's more clarity in that backfield, which we'll get to at some point. No, no, no.

40:50Jason Moore:I'm saying if you're a general manager. Oh, I thought you were saying as a fantasy player. Right now, who would you rather have as the backup behind agent? Mostert. Yeah, me too. Really? Man, he was not great. he was he was pretty bad last year yeah they're both they're both pretty bad now that's why i'm hoping for ollie gordon not jalen wright or jalen wright i mean jalen wright is a you know 215 pound back that runs sub 4-4 i love those he just looked he was so tremendously awful last year no vision you know coming into year two open your eyes man i hope that i hope that you know he figures out the scheme a little bit better because obviously if you get the guy the ball in space he's got the

41:37Mike Wright:speed and the size to just take off if you draft jalen wall at his adp which is the last pick of the fifth round you are going to in the year fill in the blank you will end the year pleasantly surprised uh hope what is the what is the new phraseology we have oh something hopelessly no No, no, pessimistically happy.

42:03Andy Holloway:I don't remember. You is your phrase, bro. It just comes out while I black out.

42:08Jason Moore:That's what happens.

42:09Andy Holloway:I think Jalen Waddell at the back of the fifth, early sixth round is worth drafting. Okay.

42:18Mike Wright:They play Indianapolis in week one on the road, the New England Buffalo and the Jets. So divisional after the Indy game. shall we take a break and then talk about those jets shall all right let's do it

42:38Mike Wright:the jets were five and twelve last year after a preseason win total of nine and a half and aaron rogers's return they started out three and eighth and the general manager got fired after week 11. This year, we've adjusted. The projected win total is 5.5. I believe that is the lowest in the division. Am I wrong? Yes. It is by far. New expectations, new quarterbacks, new questions around the Jets. 24th in points per game. Will they fix it with Justin Fields at quarterback? I don't know if that's going to happen. and I don't know if they have enough personnel to really get that done, but that's why we're talking about them right now.

43:27Mike Wright:Aaron Glenn, new head coach. Got a new offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett. Goodbye.

43:32Andy Holloway:Oh, no.

43:34Mike Wright:And no more Aaron Rodgers, no more Devontae Adams, no more Tyler Conklin. Conk, conk. But we replaced those two Hall of Famers and a tight end with Justin Fields and Josh Reynolds.

43:45Jason Moore:And Mason Taylor.

43:47Mike Wright:And Mason Taylor.

43:48Jason Moore:That's their rookie tight end in the second round, who I do think is a late-round dart throw. Tyler Conklin's vacating a lot of targets here, and they're the depth chart for pass catchers on this team. I mean, this is why I love Garrett Wilson. If you want to make the pro bowl case for Garrett Wilson, it's like, who are you throwing the ball to other than Garrett Wilson?

44:10Mike Wright:Yeah, 200-target case.

44:11Jason Moore:Yeah, for sure. I mean, the only thing against a 200 target, like if there was a different quarterback here, I'd probably project 200 targets for Garrett Wilson. But you know that Justin Fields is probably going to run the ball himself a lot, and they won't just have him airing it out.

44:27Mike Wright:Well, the way that they're going to win games this year seems like it's going to be that hard-nosed recipe of Aaron Glenn getting in there, trusting a running game where they like multiple backs, playing defense. They were third last year in total yard given up and fourth in passing yards given up. So that is their strength. And we also saw Justin Fields have success in more of a managerial quarterback situation in Pittsburgh. You don't want to necessarily put everything on his shoulders and that's not, you know, it just can go too many places. That's what Justin Fields' struggles were in Chicago.

45:06Mike Wright:It was like, you got to do everything. You got to figure everything out and yes you may make prolific runs or plays or throws but then you fumble and then you get sacked and then you fumble or throw a pick and that is just too much to put on him

45:18Jason Moore:I feel like it's all on him again though like last year he was very good for the Steelers where it was he had a very good team around him you know he had a great coach and it looks like he went four and two yeah he went four and two yeah that was that was what was so impressive when they decided to make the switch to Russell Wilson was you're a 4-2 successful team, and you're going to – you know, Russ is back and healthy, and you're going to go to Russ. And it looked brilliant at first because Russ came out on fire. They won more games. They should have gone back. Yeah, I mean, we talked about on the Steelers, the last four games were a brutal schedule.

45:56Jason Moore:But I do – I feel like this is Justin Fields back with the Bears, where he doesn't have the weapons around him enough to like I feel like it's all going to fall on him at the end of every game and he's not going to be able to overcome the bad team

46:12Mike Wright:so that's Justin Fields on the field they're not projected to win very many games but Justin Fields the fantasy player on the Bears was good for a time yes and I think he's going to be good

46:21Jason Moore:for the Jets too last year he was actually better than you realize I mean two years ago for the bears 17.7 fantasy points per game last year in the six starts 18.9 fantasy points per game he was not bad and it's because he runs the ball so freaking much were you saying i'm saying that

46:40Andy Holloway:those points would put you as a like a bottom of a top 12 quarterback yes gotcha and he is not being

46:45Jason Moore:drafted there he's being drafted as the quarterback 18 i think he's one of the most mispriced people

46:51Mike Wright:in fantasy right now well one of the questions that come along with justin fields is do you think keep the job the whole year when you're going to yes because when you lose games which they're going to do it doesn't matter how well you're playing you you could get benched you could get

47:03Jason Moore:something something could happen absolutely and I think it's an irrelevant thing when you're picking the quarterback 18 in your fantasy draft like when you're picking the quarterback 16 17 18 you're you're planning on streaming the position and you're probably not going to have a full season starter I do think that there's a good chance he starts the whole season more so than the guys you You know, you look at the Giants. Will Russ start the whole season? Probably not. They drafted Jackson Dart. Here it's like it's Tyrod Taylor behind him.

47:31Mike Wright:Yeah, if you make a bunch of mistakes, though, and it's on you to lose, that's when you could see a transition. Garrett Wilson, second most targets through three years in the history of the NFL and no one to compete with him. And their head coach basically said, get him the ball as much as possible. That's their goal on offense, which has to be your goal. breece hall jason has talked about breece hall for three years in different with different uh adjectives yeah i think we've had a full traffic light with red yellow green i think it's more green yellow red yeah so look i want to say this like it wasn't efficient or as effective or impressive on film last year but you still ended up with a season as horrible as it was for the jets where he still was the rb 17 still can catch the football how intimidated are you by the third

48:27Jason Moore:round draft price i'm very intimidated by a third round draft price um i've got him as my running back 17 kind of replicating what he did last year despite the fact that i mean you could see how it gets better for him he comes more into the form that he was his sophomore year more explosive plays and you know if that happens he'll demand more utilization he'll get the rock you know frequently however all of his fantasy goodness through his short career has really been propped up by the receiving game it's his work as a pass catcher that is what we want the most and I worry about that transitioning from an Aaron Rodgers check down quarterback to Justin Fields a scrambling quarterback when it comes to the not play called you know screen pass to Brees Hall but just the improvised how many of those a game are going to go away from total pass attempts if they want to win defensively yeah so I I worry about Brees from that and then there's also talk about having all of the running backs involved you listen to Aaron Glenn and he's saying disgusting things for fantasy football like we have three starters at running back yeah it started really nice for braylon

49:43Mike Wright:allen the first how we know he's lying first four games braylon allen played he was not he was 4.8 to carry it really slowed down you didn't get explosive plays and the team was terrible the

49:54Andy Holloway:wild thing is sophomore year 14.9 points per game running back for for for breeze for breeze last year 13.3 a game again i know that's 1.6 per week that that adds up but it i think it's more of a the expectations of last year of him being drafted i think he missed the game he did

50:19Mike Wright:yeah that would have he would have been higher on that points per game wouldn't he well no one

50:23Andy Holloway:total points for sure hopefully in points per game but sorry in total points the he was like the what the top three running back two years ago it's hard for me to remember that one the two years ago he's the running back four no no no this last sorry this past year in 2024 you drafted him

50:37Jason Moore:as oh yeah i mean he was his average draft position was first round for sure so that's part of it is

50:45Andy Holloway:he let you down on the adp but yeah he was rb3 by 80 yeah in actuality of of a points per game

50:52Mike Wright:i mean jason talked about him on the dynasty podcast that we released yesterday so you can check that out if you want a more in-depth discussion but that's that's kind of the biggest question marks around the jets you're gonna have a new scheme you're gonna have a new head coach you can have some you got a tough division i mean you're you're definitely at the bottom i mean you look at the vegas odds in this division they're like plus 1800 to win the division it is a massive difference between new england and miami and obviously buffalo the favorite But speaking of New England, they are sitting there projected with a Vegas win total of 8.5.

51:29Mike Wright:Is that? I love it. I love it. That can't be true.

51:32Jason Moore:No, that absolutely should be true. Who's got an 8.5? New England. No. That can't be right.

51:40Andy Holloway:No. That cannot be right.

51:42Jason Moore:It's 8.5.

51:43Andy Holloway:Yeah, I mean.

51:44Jason Moore:What? I'll take the over.

51:47Andy Holloway:What?

51:48Mike Wright:I'm reading it, and I'm like. No. Okay, so that puts them.

51:51Andy Holloway:And you're taking the over, so you're in on the Patriots this year. The Patriots are a 9-plus win team in 2025. They won four last year.

52:00Mike Wright:Their win total was 4.5 last year. They won in week one and then lost six straight. Drake May took over in week six. And this year is 8.5. They do have the second easiest schedule. They're going to need it. They last year were 31st in yards per game, 30th in points per game, but also had a defense that was 22nd in points per game allowed and 22nd in yards allowed. So it was bad on both sides of the ball. You get Mike Vrabel coming in. The Gerard Mayo experiment lasted a year. And Josh McDaniels makes his normal cycle around the sun, and he's back with New England for the third time, I believe.

52:34Mike Wright:You add Stephon Diggs, who we don't know for sure will be back for week one, but should be back at some point soon. Matt Collins is also a new wide receiver addition, and they draft Travion Henderson and Kyle Williams. So they have young talent, and we all like Jake May.

52:49Jason Moore:I think Drake May was unheralded last year. He played. No one did herald him. He played very well given his circumstances, his offensive line, or if you can call it that, the coaching. It was bad, and I thought he looked good. He showed enough in his rookie season to make me believe he can take that year two leap forward to becoming a true franchise quarterback. You pair him with a good head coach in Mike Vrabel, who knows how to pull out games and win the close ones. This is why I'm a believer in the Patriots being, they're probably the team that I look at as, you know, the question is always who goes from worst to first.

53:30Jason Moore:Right. I don't have them going worst first because of Buffalo, but they're one of the teams that you can just see the easy progression. There's always surprising teams where it's just like, they're supposed to be trash, supposed to be one of the worst in the league, and then all of a sudden they come out and they're like, oh, that's a pretty good team this year. I feel like that could be the Patriots here.

53:48Mike Wright:I mean, if you look at the division, if the Dolphins collapse, which is very, very possible with Mike McDaniels maybe his final year, if they collapse, the Patriots are second by default. Yeah. So, you know, it was really good for Vrabel in Tennessee for four years. It was really kind of rough the last couple of seasons in Tennessee. But he may have the Doug Peterson effect arriving and enlivening this team. I like what they did in the draft where they invested picks, not just in the skill positions but on the offensive line. So, yeah, I mean, 8.5, it says a lot about where that division is and what the expectations are.

54:29Mike Wright:That is four more wins than they were projected to get last year. And it's not like they went out and impressed last year.

54:34Jason Moore:No, no, they didn't. The offensive line, I think, should be – I mean, they spent the number four pick in the draft on an offensive lineman to help protect Drake May and, Mike, one of your favorite players. Look, I love Travion Henderson. Yeah, that's going to help out of the backfield.

54:51Mike Wright:Just to amplify your point, since 2015, at least one team every year that was drafting in the top 10 won their division or had 12-plus games. That's next year. So it does happen. It never sounds logical or rational right now, but it happens every year. the backfield JV on Henderson and Ramond Ray Stevenson I think this one's going to be tough I don't I know you love Trayvon Henderson I think he's a very talented player I do not think the path for him to be a week in week out fantasy relevant player is super easy

55:31Andy Holloway:it is not I get that Ramond Ray is entrenched he's the starter you know like i you can make arguments for him of hey they just given this extension last year but they've they've made some changes the really the the crux of the argument for traeveon henderson is i think he is just he is that much better than ramondre stevenson that maybe we have ramondre start off the first couple weeks as the guy but i think sooner than later it switches over and because henderson is just the talent will put him on the field where where Ramondre is just slow and lumbering and fumbles.

56:10Mike Wright:It's hard. It's hard. See, that description of Ramondre, I think, is so – it's just a product of a really, really bad season. And obviously they needed to amplify more in that room. This was the dead last – the worst offensive line in football last year, 32nd. The team won four games. Not conducive for a good running game. and like last offseason Ramondre got a giant contract and had a lot of excitement around him so in that regard it's just I don't want to swing the pendulum so far to where you know if they fix these other things that make them an 8.5 win team and make Drake May relevant and you like Trayvon Henderson Ramondre's going to have more success in that offense he could

56:54Andy Holloway:to me this is the Rashad White Bucky Irving of and it's not apples to apples because Bucky was a later round pick but it was, I think the starter is simply, he just, he was the starter because he was the guy who happened to be there. And it's the inefficiencies will continue to show as Henderson puts up big dynamic plays and then they make the switch.

57:18Jason Moore:The one thing in Ramondre's favor is the fact that Henderson is a smaller, more undersized back. And you would expect there to be a timeshare when you are paying a lot of money for another bigger body back, like Ramondre Stevenson, you know, the round mound of touchdown.

57:35Mike Wright:You're not really looking at Henderson being a three-down every, you know, takeover type of guy. Correct.

57:40Jason Moore:I don't see that happening. I mean, it didn't even happen for Jameer Gibbs outside of when David Montgomery was injured. So, yeah, this is – I think it'll be a split backfield, and it'll probably be a split backfield for two years because they can't really get out of his contract this year or next year for Ramondre. I would agree with you on the –

57:58Andy Holloway:Next year's 3.25 is what I'm seeing as dead cap. So right now they're two rounds apart, though.

58:04Mike Wright:Henderson is going two rounds ahead of Ramondre, which to me makes Ramondre a pinch your nose and draft in the ninth round. Yeah, I would not.

58:16Jason Moore:I probably won't be either.

58:18Mike Wright:That would put him at – so in the career-worst season for him, he was still the RB27 and still was at 10.6. Like he's been at 10.6 fantasy points per game two straight years. so I didn't that part didn't change I'm not saying he's explosive or exciting or fun probably just annoyingly productive for a for a late round running back is my point Henderson is the future of this team he's much more exciting but I don't see any world that they just hand him the whole

58:44Andy Holloway:backfield if if Jason's like if you're you're in on Jason's projection of like this team completely turns things around then yes I could see that it could it could fall out that Ramondre is just annoyingly productive. You can't be, like the team can't be bad and Ramondre be productive. I don't think even annoyingly productive when you have Henderson waiting to try and take over.

59:10Mike Wright:All right, any final thoughts there, Jason?

59:13Jason Moore:Yeah, I just wanted to see the schedule. My final thoughts are they play the Raiders, the Dolphins, the Panthers. Is this the opening schedule?

59:24Mike Wright:They play Pittsburgh in week three.

59:25Jason Moore:Yes, yes, yes. I'm just saying they play the Panthers this year. They play the New Orleans Saints this year, the Tennessee Titans, the Cleveland Browns. Like, they're the Giants. Second easiest schedule. I mean, obviously, this is great for hoping. I mean, Patriots fans out there, if you're hoping for something good, you've got it on the schedule.

59:48Mike Wright:That didn't tell me which guy that you –

59:50Jason Moore:Which player I would rather have. I would much rather have Henderson over Ramondre from a fantasy standpoint. point the seventh round is already late enough where I'm taking the shot of explosiveness I think things could get better for the Patriots meaning more scoring opportunities for Ramondre I do think he's going to be involved but I also think his total workload will go down with a second round Travion was second round yeah yeah second round how many touches do you have Travion projected

1:00:16Mike Wright:for in the in the UDK let me go pull that up um while you do that I mentioned Kyle Williams drafted wide receiver new england has a lot of potential ran a 4-4 5-11 190 we like him stefan diggs still going to be a really important player i think for drake may's progression it's just when i think i think it seems like right away well by the way yeah we don't know

1:00:43Andy Holloway:because there's there's reports of he might have to start on the pup i mean like the timeline of when he tore his ACL. I don't remember what week it was, but guys returning from ACL, it seems like he should miss time at the beginning of the year. And we see videos of guys out there running, but running on grass while no one is hitting you is so much different than a full speed NFL game. I have Henderson really taking the backfield. I got him at 194 carries and 55 targets.

1:01:14Jason Moore:yeah i i do think stevon diggs plays week one uh personally and i've got travion henderson at 165 rushing attempts and 47 targets all right well uh i guess antonio gibson still plays for this team huh still on the roster i think so yeah he does a wink that was the wink sound that was the yeah i can't really just do that for an audio usually you go yeah that was really deep that was a deep

1:01:39Mike Wright:Like a cartoon sound effect.

1:01:42Jason Moore:Could I say it with a higher voice? Yes, try it. Antonio Gibson plays for the Patriots. Wink. That's so much better.

1:01:51Andy Holloway:Wink. Good work, producers.

1:01:56Mike Wright:You like New England to break out, Jason.

1:01:59Jason Moore:Yes.

1:02:00Mike Wright:You like Drake May.

1:02:01Jason Moore:Drake May to me is another. He's my quarterback 12.

1:02:05Mike Wright:Then somebody has to matter in the passing game.

1:02:08Jason Moore:I mean, that would be...

1:02:09Andy Holloway:Josh Allen says that's incorrect.

1:02:11Jason Moore:Yeah. Stephon Diggs and Kayshaun Booty are the two that I have projected as the highest in targets.

1:02:20Andy Holloway:What's wild is I don't think we even know who's going to be on this team as a pass catcher. Oh my gosh, there's so many. I've seen reports that Booty's not even on the team.

1:02:30Jason Moore:I can't fathom that. Demario Douglas is on the team.

1:02:33Andy Holloway:He's a lock. Kyle Williams is on the team.

1:02:35Mike Wright:Stephon Diggs is on the team. Yeah, those are... And Matt Collins is on the team.

1:02:37Andy Holloway:But I'm saying the three locks that I see consistently being reported is Diggs, Kyle Williams, Douglas. And then the rest of the spots are up for grabs.

1:02:48Jason Moore:If you win, Drake May took over and became the starter. If you look at how booty was used, he was really, really involved down the stretch. So I would be surprised if he doesn't make the team. Jalen Polk, last year's second rounder. And he's gone. That's insane.

1:03:05Mike Wright:I mean, I got to imagine he's gone. Mac Collins was a two-year,$8.4 million contract. I was just looking that up. He came over from Buffalo. He should be on that team. Mac is a good wide receiver.

1:03:16Andy Holloway:Yeah, he's good for Buffalo.

1:03:16Jason Moore:And he'll help on special teams. Yeah. Yeah, so he should be there. And you're the level of T. Oh, super T. That's capital T for sure. You've got Kendrick Bourne, John Baker. There are so many wide receivers.

1:03:29Mike Wright:Baker Bourne, Booty, if it's a B name, you could get cut. Yeah. so to you though i think demario douglas is just one of those players that's like he's the kalio shakir of the offense exactly he's not going to give you a huge ceiling but if you need a spot start in a certain week he's always going to be on the field he's going to he's good

1:03:49Jason Moore:he's a good he's a good player he's a ppr type of guy that's going to you pray get to 10 yards of reception but he'll be very targeted um any other shots in the passing game that you guys

1:04:01Andy Holloway:care about hunter henry i mean hunter henry's a fun streaming tight end from time to time but

1:04:07Mike Wright:still gonna need the offensive line to be better than 32nd in the league for sure which i mean that's gonna have to get proven out on the field if they're a bad offensive line this team is going

1:04:15Jason Moore:to hit their under on that win total i they will be a bad offensive line they don't have enough personnel i mean obviously will anderson being you know drafted uh at four overall that will help but you know the or i'm sorry will camp i was like how's he gonna spin will anderson into this conversation will anderson uh alabama superstar that the cardinals should have drafted um but no will campbell uh the tackle he'll help but it reminds me a lot of like the texans last year where you had laramie tunsel awesome but then the rest of your line was such trash that it you still had a bad line who wins the division buffalo all right we all got buffalo at the top give me the rest you know i'm taking the patriots second okay dolphins jets i'm gonna go which by

1:05:02Mike Wright:the way um in case you're curious chalk oh is that chalk yes that's what that's chalk yeah

1:05:09Jason Moore:you're a chalk guy okay well it's different you're new from last year why don't you just pick whatever they did last year what's your order andy it's tough to decide between miami

1:05:17Andy Holloway:new england i think i'll go buffalo miami new england new york chalk last year uh i'm gonna to go Buffalo, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots. I can't quit, Justin. Wait, hit that sound effect. What I can't quit is – There it is. What I can't quit is a already great defense, and then you bring in a defensive guy. I'm not saying it's going to be pretty to watch, but I think that they –

1:05:46Jason Moore:You're saying they bring in a defensive guy at head coach? Yeah. Replacing a defensive guy at head coach? A guy who actually I believe in. Okay.

1:05:54Mike Wright:It's funny. They have, what, three out of four in the division are defensive head coaches. McDermott's a defensive head coach. Yeah. Aaron Glenn now a defensive head coach. Mm-hmm. Mike Rabel, defensive head coach.

1:06:04Jason Moore:Yeah. Right?

1:06:06Mike Wright:Yeah. So Mike McDaniels is really the cheese stands alone. Yeah. And if you put those.

1:06:12Andy Holloway:Come on, dude, Mike, you got to do something in Miami. You can't make us offensive people look bad again.

1:06:17Mike Wright:Rex Ryan's looking for a job.

1:06:20Andy Holloway:All right. you can play that sound for Rex with him that is him smiling for sure

1:06:28Mike Wright:it's the light caressing off of the chompers is that what you're saying alright I think that's going to wrap it up for today's divisional breakdown but don't worry three shows a week means we've got a show in just two days and then we'll have another mock draft episode I believe coming up next Tuesday so we'll do another divisional breakdown we'll do a mock draft and we'll get back into the divisional shows as well. Check out the draft kit. It's the number one way to win at your draft. Make sure you're prepared. Make sure you have a game plan. Make sure you know what to do. All of our sleepers, breakouts, busts, and values available in there, along with innumerable other resources to help you handle your business on draft day.

1:07:09Mike Wright:So that is going to do it for today. Shout out to Deucer's Alley, everybody over there taking care of business. Thank you, gentlemen. We'll be back with another episode on Saturday. Take care, everybody. Goodbye.

1:07:26Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.