Fantasy Football - AFC East Breakdown + Meow Men - Podcast for 7/11

7:48Andy Holloway:Oh, don't stop there. You should read the Jets' one.

7:50Mike Wright:Where were the Jets' one?

7:51Andy Holloway:Minus 203.

7:54Mike Wright:Oh, boy. The haves and the have-nots. But we'll start with the Patriots. Patriots are going to be very, very interesting to project this year for fantasy. They were looking at a 9.5 game win total last year from Vegas. They went 7-3 in one score games. They were the healthiest team in the NFL, so they had the fewest adjusted games lost. Their projected win total this year. You want to hear this? Mm-hmm. They won 14 games. They added A.J. Brown. Vegas has them at nine and a half wins that is

8:25Jason Moore:it makes sense you can say it's disrespectful but it is mathematical last year their schedule was cake it was so easy that 14 wins they're not like an average 14 win team they went to the Super Bowl so you're like well yes they are

8:52Mike Wright:Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, Dylan Gabriel, Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley, Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers. Yeah. Those were quarterbacks that they faced and defeated last year.

9:03Jason Moore:And, you know, good on them. You're supposed to do that. You're supposed to win those games. So I don't want to do anything disrespectful here, but the schedule is going to get a lot harder. There's also the Super Bowl hangover for teams that lose the Super Bowl. It is tough the next season. So those two things combined with the fact that this is a young team, so it was a magical season. You add that with all the offseason drama, Vrabel and all that, this is going to be a difficult, really test your medal season, I think, for the Patriots.

9:36Mike Wright:Well, they start the year, just so you understand, the first six weeks they go on the road against Seattle to start the year. That's probably the hardest matchup you could have in week one. Then they play Pittsburgh at home. then they go on the road two more weeks at Jacksonville at Buffalo so the first four weeks of the year they're underdogs in three games so yeah they'll be put to the test immediately with a much more difficult start to the year then they get to play the Raiders and Jets at home and that will maybe medicate the bad situation yeah but the first question for fantasy worries about Drake May worries about regression for Drake May this is a quarterback that was number one in completion percentage number one in yards per attempt number one in passer rating right now he's at the fourth highest pass success rate of any quarterback through the first two years behind Mahomes Purdy Dan Marino do you think he regresses for fantasy purposes you'd love to say that AJ Brown Romeo Dobbs those additions should ensure that he doesn't but it's certainly a risk when you have

10:37Jason Moore:different defenses you're playing yeah a more difficult schedule I I think Drake May proved I mean he was the MVP runner-up he proved he is he's elite I think he's very very good will he regress and you know last year he was the quarterback three in fantasy I think some of that happened to deal happened to be gifted with some injuries obviously Lamar was injured Burrow was injured so you know I I feel like he was more like a quarterback five and I think that's in the range of outcomes here. A.J. Brown coming is a huge deal for Drake May. He did not really have an alpha to throw to last year. He made it work.

11:15Jason Moore:I think year two for Travion Henderson out of the backfield as well. I, you know, Romandro is really good catching the ball, but I do think that they will transition a little bit more to Travion in the passing game and that will be more explosive. So I, you know, I think more of the same for Drake May, but the same won't feel as good this year as it did last year because other players won't be injured sometimes i wonder when an alpha

11:41Mike Wright:comes in here that is as demanding vocal as aj brown sometimes i wonder if it it serves the team or it doesn't when you had i think it does early well you had an offense that was very like the ball could go anywhere right it was booty it was it was uh hooper and it was hunter henry and digs and it was spread around a lot, but it also means you have a great touchdown opportunity on a regular basis with A.J. Brown. I think mostly my opinion, projecting it in fantasy, I've pretty much played it like Drake May is going to roll it back, like he's going to run it back with very similar output from a fantasy perspective.

12:23Mike Wright:They are a team, we've talked a lot about this, they're a great defense, and Vrabel's going to have a great defense. They were number two in points per game, number eight in yards per game. Something to keep in mind in some of those matchups. But, Mike, where did you project Drake May to finish?

12:41Andy Holloway:I still have him being a very solid fantasy player. But we know historically that he had a 6.3 touchdown percentage. Like, when you're up that high, it generally comes down by like a point or so. or if not more so there's it's not a i don't think he has a flawless path to being a superstar for fantasy purposes but he he looks like the real deal like the film stuff is his numbers

13:15Mike Wright:locked in jayden daniels or drake may and you had to lock him in for the whole year uh Man, if I had to lock in all year, probably Jaden.

13:29Andy Holloway:But Jaden's a higher ceiling but lower floor to me of things. We saw it. The bottom could fall out. Do you guys make anything of competition-wise? You get to the playoffs. Theoretically, you're playing the best of the best. Jake May completed 58 % of his passes in the playoffs. He threw six touchdowns and four interceptions. Those aren't prolific numbers. He took 21 sacks. Playoffs were not perfect for Jake May.

14:04Mike Wright:I'm trying to remember all the matchups. I know they played Denver. I know they played Seattle. Did they play Houston? Remind me.

14:11Andy Holloway:Yeah, they beat the crap out of Houston. Isn't that the Stroud game?

14:15Jason Moore:Kyle? well someone beat the crap out of houston and was the stroud game that's for sure

14:21Mike Wright:i mean that was they went out i'm just trying to think about like what would explain away some of that and if you played three of the best four defenses in football might have something to do

14:33Andy Holloway:well that's the point of yeah for sure of bringing that up chargers houston denver seattle yeah i'm bringing it up of you're like okay well if the they're playing a more difficult schedule you're going to have fewer cupcake games. So is that something that people should be factoring in more or are we just, you know, whatever wheels up, Drake may looks great. And the addition of AJ Brown can, can that eliminate some of the concerns with the schedule? Yeah.

15:05Mike Wright:I think if I had a choice, I'd probably go with, uh, it's gonna be me. Oh, okay. Yeah. I don't know. Okay. I don't know. I've always hated that drop, so I tried to use it for my own purposes. It didn't feel right at all.

15:20Jason Moore:That's a late April. That's a late April drop. Yeah, I don't know.

15:24Mike Wright:I like Drake May. I think the backfield will be – I think Mike would agree. It's going to be frustrating.

15:31Andy Holloway:I love hearing Jason being bullish on Travo. I think he is a sensational player. I think that should he be given the keys, great things will happen for the team. great things will happen for fantasy football but as we know running back decisions are that's who's on the field and the coach puts the players on the field and Vrabel like last year where you had the Henderson breakout happen where you're getting all the production it's incredible and the fact that Ramondre goes right back in and Ramondre was good like this is not a you know I have I have to tell the truth of Ramondre's season he was a solid player for the Patriots and he was solid for fantasy football.

16:14Andy Holloway:The fact that they went back to him immediately, just that worries me for the ADP gap of, I'm not saying Henderson can't pay off at a fourth round price, but the risk you're taking of him in the fourth and Ramondre in the seventh when Ramondre is probably the starter for the first quarter of the season at least.

16:35Mike Wright:I don't know how everyone will break the pendulum down a little bit differently but there's a it's not like guaranteed that Henderson has a better fantasy year than Ramondre and that says I agree that says something for the fantasy decision making of that the upside is tremendous with Travion but there's no guarantee he's the better running back in this backfield

16:55Jason Moore:their production wise that that's that's definitely true there is uh in the range of outcomes if they you know neither guy gets injured Ramondre could be the goal line back could still be on the field more in passing situations and be the better pick. They do like him. Yeah, for sure. And he's under contract for at least, you know, he's under contract, I think, three more years, probably two on the team. However, I am very bullish on Henderson. He is the more explosive player. They spent the 38th pick on him, right? Then he goes out in his rookie season, gets 1 ,100 total yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie.

17:30Jason Moore:If you look at what happened on the snaps, so he started so slow. I mean, this was all Ramondre. They brought this rookie along slow. Then an injury forced him on the field, and he dominated. He dominated during that stretch. Ramondre comes back, and what we remember now is what happened in the playoffs where Ramondre took over. But the rest of the season, Ramondre was getting 11 opportunities a game. when Ramondre and Travo were there to Travion Henderson's 14 a game. Now, how do you explain that in the playoffs? We just talked about this. They played really good, unbelievable defenses where the offense was controlled and more game management.

18:10Jason Moore:This was a smart decision by Vrabel. They got to the Super Bowl. But I mean, I think that it will flip. Last year on the total, you know, this 1 ,100 yards and 10 touchdowns that we saw from Travion, that was on 46 % of the snaps. I think it's going to be 60-40 the other way No I don't agree with that at all That's absolutely fine you don't have to agree with that But if it is that If it's 60-40 Travo Travo will pay off on the fourth Yes that I agree with And so you just have to decide for yourself Do you think Ramondre will be the leader of this timeshare If so Travo is a terrible pick

18:45Mike Wright:A.J. Brown has arrived We'll talk about the wide receiver room I think that A.J. Brown is in the in the realm of players that can finish at number one at the position. We always ask that question, like, what's the true ceiling of the wide receiver position? Our consensus rank on A.J. Brown is number nine overall. But I would answer that question if you asked me, like, could he finish at one? I would say yes. I would say yes, too. I think it's going to be a brilliant year for him. It might be isolated to one New England year this year, you know, but I think he is a steal in drafts.

19:20Jason Moore:He will demand the ball. He always has. Last year, people were down on him, down on the Eagles offense. Jalen Hurts wasn't that good at passing the ball. A.J. Brown missed a couple games. He was the wide receiver 10. Now you go to a team that has a pass rate way higher than the Eagles. They paid to get him. He is the guy. He's got a better quarterback situation throwing the ball. Drake May is a better passer than Jalen Hurts. I am all in on A.J. Brown. I'm completely with you. I think that where he's going right now in drafts is a great spot to take him.

19:57Mike Wright:Second receiving target on this team, is it one of the other wide receivers, or is it Hunter Henry?

20:03Andy Holloway:No, it's Dobbs. I mean, long live the reign of Romeo Dobbs being the Patriots wide receiver one. We had a sweet couple months there. but lost I think lost in the AJ Brown stuff is that they gave Romeo Dobbs a good contract and Romeo Dobbs is I'm not saying he's a an elite player but he is a very capable wide receiver like he was a stabilizer in Green Bay for years you think eight weeks into the year he'll be on fancy rosters I do okay that's why I want to bring him up of that he's the keys barely being drafted as a wide receiver four and he's going to an mvp caliber quarterback that will have a ton of statistics there's going to be like there's enough production to go to have it be a second player does dobbs get enough consolidated targets like is he up in the low 20s of the target share because if he is then he's gonna help rosters he's maybe he's not a league winning type of player but there's very, very few of those guys each and every year.

21:13Andy Holloway:So you need auxiliary players who can come in and be your wide receiver three or your flex play. And I think that Romeo Dobbs is in contention to be able to do something like that.

21:23Mike Wright:Stephon Diggs was 21 % of the targets. He's gone. Antonio Gibson's gone. And Austin Hooper is gone. I will just bring up Hunter Henry as the, I think the two most boring, sneaky tight ends you could play with the last pick of your draft are Hunter Henry and Dallas Goddard. yeah and henry just i mean it blew my mind to look he was the tight end six on the year with 768 yards and seven touchdowns just worth saying i mean henry he had a big role in the red zone aj brown will come in and be more of a role in the red zone in the red zone henry can give you a game here there in the right matchup when the opponent defense is bad against tight ends in the

21:59Andy Holloway:in the red zone he saw the first read 40 of the time he's a good player he's just solid he's a good vet i i he's yeah he's a he's a touchdown threat where a lot of these late tight ends are just they're not going to have production and they won't have tight or touchdowns i do think

22:15Jason Moore:that the addition of aj brown and dobbs makes me less bullish like he has always for the last several years been one of those i'm at the last round of my draft i need a tight end i'm always been fine taking hunter henry he's probably not going to make that i'd rather have dallas goddard in that situation um you know ironically aj brown leaves one team goes to the other i'll take the one where the targets are vacated.

22:37Mike Wright:We'll take a break and we'll jump into the Bills.

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23:49Mike Wright:No, they didn't win the division, but they did go 12-5 and have a successful year once again. The Vegas win total last year was 11-1⁄2. They won 12 games. Yeah, 11-1⁄2, they won 12 games. They were 5-3-1 score games. they only had five games against teams with a winning record. So to bring that up, you've got to be fair with every team in this division. And they were very healthy on the offensive side of the ball, not a lot of injuries there, very injured on the defensive side of the ball. Their Vegas projected win total has gone down from 11.5 to 10.5 going into this year, third in points per game, third in yards per game.

24:29Mike Wright:the big move this offseason a big change at head coach joe brady well maybe not a big change but a change right you it's yeah it's durman is gone culture has changed no more 9 11 analogies in the

24:44Jason Moore:locker room oh man that was real it's funny because it became a meme and it was bring it up but that's all i think about but it's like it actually happened yeah yeah well joe brady's

24:55Mike Wright:taking over pete carmichael's the oc but joe brady was the oc and we'll have his fingerprints all over the like that's good for fantasy for us like we it is when you look at you know the two main players on buffalo that fancy players care about james cook josh allen those are the identity of the team and when the head coach is the former offensive coordinator you know that there's the stability the the expectation that this is going to be that run first team the james cook is going have a huge role once again the headline making move dj moore acquired via trade no more brandon cooks gabe davis curtis samuel on the uh you know the the rotating offensive side of the football at wide receiver but they also drafted skylar bell in the fourth round worth mentioning are you expecting more of the same from this offense and how early is too early for josh Allen in a fantasy draft?

25:51Jason Moore:I think Josh Allen is a good pick, like period. So if you take him, if you want to take him at the two, three turn, that's earlier than I would want to take him. That's earlier than he usually goes. I don't think it's a bad pick because Josh Allen has been so solid. I saw some statistics on the percentage of teams that make the playoffs with Josh Allen over the last several years. And it is an enormous number. And he's been drafted all over the place. A couple years ago, he was drafted even higher. He was a second-round pick. And people who drafted him made the playoffs. When he was a third-round pick, people who drafted him, they made the playoffs.

26:29Jason Moore:It's like one of those where late-round quarterback, we want the value. That's all great, and that's a good strategy as well. But Josh Allen's so solid, I just don't think it's ever a bad pick to draft a guy that's going to score a ton of fantasy points in a game where we're trying to score fantasy points is a pretty good strategy.

26:48Mike Wright:Is James Cook a guaranteed first-round pick for you? He said basically double birds to the TD regression. Well, I mean, he could say that, but we got it.

26:59Andy Holloway:We did? The touchdown regression was massive. Two years ago, he had 207 carries and 16 rushing touchdowns. He had 12 rushing touchdowns this year on 309 carries. So the touchdown percentage. Yeah, no, we got it, guys. We smashed it. We got it.

27:14Mike Wright:But he managed to find a way through. But then he got 100 more carries. He's one of the true workhorses. And he needs to be thought of that way in the same breath as the great ones out there. The B. Johns and CMCs, I think.

27:27Andy Holloway:The thought is just hitting me now. Because we were talking about last year, the conversation, there was a conversation of, Like, okay, well, James Cook, 200 carries, like 237 the year before, and then they give him the huge contract. And you're like, this only makes sense if you give him a bunch more volume, which he did and he thrived. And I'm bringing this just a quick callback of like the Alec Pierce discussion of when you give a player that level of contract, you better use that player or you look real, real dumb. And they did. And James Cook came through. And, yeah, he's an easy, safe, high upside, high floor pick.

28:12Mike Wright:11 games of 80-plus rushing yards was the most in the NFL. Barely caught the football but didn't need to.

28:18Andy Holloway:I mean, you felt it last year. If you look across your matchup and you saw James Cook on the other side, you went, oh, no.

28:26Mike Wright:Well, he had breakaway runs, too. It was like he was very explosive. That combo was great. DJ Moore gets reunited with Joe Brady who was his offensive coordinator in Carolina that's one thing I'm going to try to talk more positively about DJ Moore

28:40Andy Holloway:I want to try and make the case for both sides we've been pretty negative on DJ Moore because look the case for that is it's very easy he's 29 year 8 in the NFL he was bad last year he's changing teams at a late point into his career that's not generally something that works out but he is going back to a coach who he's played for. And Joe Brady in March, guys, let's see if you agree with this quote. Joe Brady said, five years, it's a long time, but the player I saw on the 2025 tape wasn't any different. I didn't see any drop off. Then he wasn't watching much. I think I understand it because the DJ Moore the last couple of years

29:24Mike Wright:in Chicago has been a DJ Moore that makes a just out of nowhere outstanding great play just wasn't a focal point of the offense when he was with joe brady in carolina 1100 yards four touchdowns 1100 yards four touchdowns if they want to make him that i guess i'm just trying to say like if you could give a three sentence summary of the bull case for dj moore because at this point that's also easy in the sixth round yeah the you're starting You're not paying the Diggs arrives in Buffalo price. Well, that was actually super cheap, too.

29:59Andy Holloway:Yeah, because we didn't like Josh Allen. Stephon Diggs was like a six-round pick.

30:03Jason Moore:Yes, it was a very similar situation. The question is whether or not DJ Moore still got it. If he does, the range of outcomes, like we said with A.J. Brown, what is the best-case scenario? The best-case scenario is he is their alpha target. He has 150 targets. If he has 150 targets, then you're talking about a guy who, from Josh Allen, he's a wide receiver one. I don't think if he's up near 30 % target share, he's falling to a wide receiver two. So he is not a terrible pick if you want to take a bet on the Bills offense. I won't be doing that. I think I just have too much of odds on him not being necessary for this offense, having his good games, being involved.

30:51Jason Moore:But, I mean, we're going back multiple years now where Josh Allen's been great, the offense has been great, and they didn't really need one wide receiver to carry the load.

30:59Mike Wright:Yeah, I mean, we've been excited about Shakir Coleman, Cooks, Curtis Samuel before, like Amari Cooper when he arrived. I think we have been excited about a bunch of names that we think could become the next Diggs. But no one was good enough. So that's the question. And I think most of us would say we don't know if DJ Moore has that enough.

31:19Andy Holloway:I mean, it's just like the Chiefs. no one's been good enough dalton kinkade out into the list by the way of players with high expectations that have never become right a focal but for dj more you know this was i recall talking about the you know the the post-mortem looking back on stefan diggs who the i mean i was wrong the stefan diggs year because i was so out on josh allen making the the best turnaround a quarterback in the NFL has ever seen. Got that one wrong. But looking back at it was the risk was baked into the ADP. You know, there's other guys who are in the sixth round that I, so there is an opportunity cost.

31:58Andy Holloway:There's players in that area that I really love, but it's like, if you're in on DJ Moore at all, it's he's wide receiver 32 and he finished as the wide receiver 33 last year. like so there it's all just inherently in there that you are you're you're not it it's not like

32:17Mike Wright:a aj brown's a second round pick right yeah you you don't have to pay a lot for the player who

32:23Andy Holloway:he has to be the number one wide receiver i feel like we had the nicest conversation we've

32:28Mike Wright:definitely ever had about dj more this off season which was nice of us he got it like so they're you gotta look at what where could you be wrong in your analysis they're favored in five of their first six games but I will say there's some tough defensive matchups in there they start against Houston in Houston they play New England in week four they play against the Rams and that defense in Los Angeles in week five um so I I think it's a pretty level start to the year even though they're favored in five of six uh one last follow-up there Dalton Kincaid yes that's I didn't

33:00Jason Moore:want you to move on yeah I'm not going to move on without talking about I think it's an important conversation for this year because he is very affordable I think he's going to be in double digit rounds no one really wants him he's just been viewed mostly as a bust for his career even though he was very exciting coming in he's just dealt with injuries his lingering what it was pcl

33:17Mike Wright:i think that he really struggled with all last year camstring yeah it all came from this knee

33:24Jason Moore:injury he kept getting uh doctor multiple opinions whether he needs surgery or not last year he finished as the tight end 15 okay he played 27 percent of the bill's snaps offensive snaps I mean he was really not on the field even in the games that he played it was only 38 percent of snaps I just did a little research report on his current health and he took multiple doctor visits all of them said he didn't need surgery so he rehabbed the same doctors from last year no no no what I was saying earlier was actually from this offseason the most recent reports is talking from him that he feels the best he's felt in forever he hasn't even thought about it the knee is no longer an issue for him right now not that it can't come up again but it's great because all last year it was an issue for him every single game the whole year that's why his snaps were so limited on a yards per route run basis he was the best he led all tight ends so if he's actually healthy and what we've seen the last couple of years is a little sleeper candidate.

34:29Jason Moore:If you're in the end of your draft and you don't have one, I would, in double digits, round 11, I'd pull the trigger.

34:38Mike Wright:All right, let's take a break and we'll come back with the Dolphins.

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36:17Mike Wright:All right, guys. I know you've been dying to talk about the Dolphins. their projected win total last year was 8.5. They went 7-10. Their projected win total this year is an abysmal 4.5. When you look at the players subtracted from this team, it is just reading the offense to you. Players subtractions. Tua, Tyreek, Waddle, Westbrook Akine, Darren Waller. Quarterbacks and pass catchers.

36:46Jason Moore:Let's take Mike McDaniel as well. Yeah, and your head

36:48Mike Wright:coach, your offensive genius of a head coach.

36:50Jason Moore:The offense was nuked. They are playing for 2027. Obviously, they brought in... Haefely? Yep. They brought in the Packers. All entirely. The Packers backup guys, they became the new starters here, including their backup quarterback.

37:10Mike Wright:Their player additions list includes Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, and Terrace Marshall Jr., all three of which are considered mediocre at best. They added Caleb Douglas in the draft in the third round, Chris Bell in the third round. It's hard to have high expectations of those guys, but if you want, like you know what you have in Tolbert, Atwell, and Terrace Marshall.

37:32Andy Holloway:Which is nothing.

37:33Mike Wright:And probably, yeah, and Malik Washington. And so you look at this ensemble of options and you say, well, there's just nobody I would pick. Maybe one of them will help Malik be relevant, but I can't pick one.

37:48Jason Moore:I had Kyle look into, because they are an NFL team. They will throw. Yeah, they have to play four quarters. They have to play four quarters every game. So the fact that right now no one is being drafted a wide receiver in the top 36, it's like, well, one of them has to emerge, right? So I had him look at teams that were healthy. Because every year you've got maybe the best wide receiver on the team was wide receiver 60 because the healthiest wide receiver played eight games. there's plenty of examples in history where there are a healthy has no wide receiver has absolutely nothing of relevance and this is this is a very predictable one of those if you want to take a shot on one of their rookies um caleb douglas or chris bell to have a surprise breakout okay

38:35Mike Wright:but i'm not going to yeah it's just a tough sell on the offensive side of the football outside of H. Devon H. Which, you know, on one hand, you're like, well, this offense is going to struggle. They're not projected to win a lot of games. That's not good for running backs. Well, the offense struggled.

38:55Jason Moore:They didn't win a bunch of games, and he was there last year.

38:57Mike Wright:That's it. They're set up for Warren Sharpe's second toughest schedule of 2026. They're coming off a year where I just deleted their five best offensive players, and they were 25th in yards per game last year. It's hard to make a strong case for them winning a lot of football games. Hopefully they can win some fantasy football games with some spot starts from Malik Willis, who is a very mobile quarterback. That is a superpower. I think it's a QB stash late in drafts. You can look to Green Bay, the scramble rate 14.5%. He ran for 41, 73, and 60 yards in his three starts. That's incredible. I mean, if you do that over the course of a year, it's big numbers.

39:36Mike Wright:But it is going to feel a little bit like Malik and A-chan against the world, I think, at least in my view.

39:42Andy Holloway:So where are you at with A-chan? Because he is an early second-round pick. So you're talking this is a foundation of your roster. You can't miss. You don't want to miss on your second-round pick. It puts you in a huge hole. He's a great player. Last year, 40 % of his production came from receiving.

40:06Mike Wright:and that's not what historically Malik has done we have a different quarterback which you know

40:11Andy Holloway:mobile quarterbacks you lose a couple targets here and there you also don't have it we have when you have a quarterback like to uh you know that you're going to get a bunch of bunch of check down it's like the the Philip Rivers you have certain quarterbacks who this is what they do it's part of their mo I don't have fear okay and that's your I have them ranked very high and

40:33Mike Wright:And part of it is, go look at the game log last year. They had games go sideways all over the place. This was the most consistent running back in football. You know what his consistency ranking is? 100%. 100%. So every game he played.

40:48Jason Moore:What's funny about that is our metric for that, for running back, is you want to hit 10.5 fantasy points a game. He did that 100 % of his games. His lowest score all year was 11.3. I mean he was basically 15 points a game every single game unfathomably consistent last year

41:06Mike Wright:there's just some things that he possesses in my opinion that make him more invulnerable to bad games one was the receiving work yes maybe that is a variable that is going to be a problem two it's the big plays it's the long runs the 49 yard touchdown the 46 yard touchdown the 59 yard touchdown the 48 yard touchdown 39 29 23 when you can make a big play I mean they lost games 33 to 8 he's a running back 10 in that game i mean i am 45 to 20 he's the running back 15 i i know that it's not going to stay this good but i just believe in the player's talent well

41:39Andy Holloway:and then the other part of that conversation i don't like atlanta's offense but i like bjohn the we went over the wide receivers i think malik washington is at least interesting as a complete in total dart throw at the very, very end of late drafts. But last year, you lose Tyreek, but you had Waddle for the majority of the season. You have a true number one wide receiver that the teams have to worry about. If they have no one at the pass-catching position that you have to worry about, and you can completely focus on A-Chain. I definitely worry about A-Chain.

42:16Jason Moore:I think the talent is totally something you can bet on. The opportunity is something you can bet on. When those two things come together, I'm not going to say that he's going to be a bust. But where he is going in drafts feels like he's going ahead of Gentian, Hampton, and most ADP right now. I would prefer those other guys personally. Right, and so he might stay there. I do think last year he had 12 total touchdowns. I couldn't possibly project him to get 12 total touchdowns on this offense. I can't possibly project him to receive the same targets that he had with Tua, with Malik. so it's not going to be as good as last year it's not but he is super talented and he will get so much work

42:56Mike Wright:he had 12 the year before as well well they were a good offense two years ago I just think the challenge for you is going to be this team how many total touchdowns do they score in the year exactly but if it's 30 try giving them to somebody else that's the hard part in the projection thing this offense they paid him he got the big check this offseason they're going to be a weird team they're just gonna be a very very weird team to see if we can find fantasy value you can't look at an offense that's projected for four and a half wins and not say there's not some risk with hn even though he's been that good but i do think he's in the same tier to me talent wise as gibbs bjong those guys um worth and greg dolcich for goodness okay that's i was gonna bring it up you

43:40Andy Holloway:know did you want to say something else on we mentioned dalton dalton kinkade was at 2.73 yards per route run hyper efficient part of that is the low you know the low snaps greg dulcich for on very low snaps as well 2.38 yards per route run and then they they bring him

43:59Mike Wright:back he he is their best white he's their best receiver outside of agent unless chris bell like

44:07Jason Moore:chris bell was supposed to be a first round healthy a first round wide receiver um who tore his knee, right? Yeah, his knee just tore it right off. Made Dan Campbell proud. Oh!

44:23Andy Holloway:That drop did not work very well the last time. Was it last applied to Le 'Veon? I think so. That was a long time ago. The bell told for the player who...

44:33Mike Wright:I'm staring at some old drops here, guys. You know how many folders I had to go in for that?

44:38Andy Holloway:You had to go to the Le 'Veon bell folder.

44:40Mike Wright:That's in there with...

44:46Mike Wright:also

44:47Andy Holloway:believe you've met my fitness Michel Sony Michel

44:52Mike Wright:there's some old stuff some old stuff in there

44:58Jason Moore:AJ Dillon alright well we gotta get some new new drops here I think Dulcich is a

45:02Mike Wright:great sleeper pick I do you're gonna be coming from behind in almost every game you play they are the first five games of the year road game against the Raiders road game against the Niners Kansas City Minnesota Cincinnati LLLL potential to start the year um well it's like profile wise super athletic I was dressed

45:23Andy Holloway:up as him for Halloween Sue he's a super athletic player that matters at the tight end position and very strong chance he's the number one receiving option other than the running back Like, you know, odds are very, very against him, but these types of players, they pop up.

45:43Mike Wright:Yep. No, I think that he is one of the more interesting names on a team that seems mostly uninteresting. Speaking of the Jets, 3-14 last year with a projected win total of 5.5.

45:55Andy Holloway:Oh, man.

45:56Mike Wright:3-5 in one score games.

45:58Andy Holloway:You guys remember the dance?

45:59Mike Wright:Yeah, by Coach.

46:01Andy Holloway:Oh, and then they lost the game.

46:03Jason Moore:And then they lost the game.

46:05Mike Wright:Oh, my God. The vibes are better this year than they were last year. The Jets were tight or trailing in 93 % of their snaps. They lost by 11.5 points a game. Their schedule looks much better, but the projected win total is the same. Five and a half. Brutal division that nobody's won in how many? 17 years? Is that what I said? Other than the Patriots and Bills?

46:28Andy Holloway:Yeah. The Jets haven't won in forever. Is it? So the Jets have not been in the Piers?

46:33Mike Wright:Their last playoff appearance was 2010. which that puts them, they're like the longest wait. The Falcons are 2017. Like 2010 is incredible. That's 16 years. That seems impossible. And yet? What?

46:49Jason Moore:Get it together, man. They didn't make the playoffs with Favre?

46:53Mike Wright:Well, I mean, the last appearance I think was Sanchez in 2010, right? Sanchez was after Favre. We're old, right? I guess so, man. Holy moly When did Brett Favre play? The Jets last win Was Sanchez Yeah, January 16th 2011 Oh wow Sanchez threw three touchdown passes To beat the Patriots 28-21 Crazy Oh, Mangini was the coach You guys remember Eric Mangini? It was Rex with Sanchez Yes, it was But I do remember Eric Mangini

47:33Jason Moore:what a great intro for this team he was great and then he just took carburetors went to work as a mechanic I assume just based on looks

47:45Mike Wright:oh my gosh I didn't see Mangini

47:50Andy Holloway:slander coming up on today's episode he looked like a mechanic to you you can't pass up your opportunity to dunk on Eric Mangini

48:00Mike Wright:that's double A MCO

48:05Mike Wright:offensive rank 29th in points per game 29th in yards per game defensive rank 31st in points per game Aaron Glenn did such a good job that he did

48:15Jason Moore:the worst job possible that and then and added he fell on his sword by cutting everyone else with his sword it was him it was you it was you it was you he blamed everyone he said someone

48:28Mike Wright:call an ambulance, but not for me. Dude, how about the 64-year-old? He massacred his coaches. That's your fault. You suck.

48:37Jason Moore:Get out of here. You're fired.

48:39Mike Wright:The heads had to roll after last year and it wasn't going to be his. I can't believe he kept his job. I can't believe this guy got another job. Frank Reich, 64 years old, the oldest OC in the NFL. The last two times we saw him at the NFL level, I thought the league had passed him by. But there are those out there that look at Reich and say, Look, this is an NFL-level offensive coordinator that should be able to put his players in the best position to succeed.

49:05Andy Holloway:Do you know who those people are, Andy? Jets fans? No.

49:08Mike Wright:Oh.

49:09Andy Holloway:These are people who have had Garrett Wilson on their dynasty roster the whole time. Yeah. And each and every year, we have to look at the idiotic moves that the Jets have made, and we have to convince ourselves that our superstar wide receiver will actually get a chance.

49:24Mike Wright:when 64-year-old Frank Reich last had opportunities, he had the lowest motion rate on dropbacks of any play caller. Because motion, that's not a big part of the game today, right? Mike, how does that make you feel? Motion and play action? Your eyes rolled into the back of your head.

49:40Andy Holloway:Look, I'm not a NFL coach. I am not a college or high school coach. But you pay attention to what the good coaches do. Yes, I know what the good offenses do. they do a lot of play action because it we gotta establish the run no you don't it just works and so does motion these things matter you have to pay attention to what's going on in the NFL

50:07Mike Wright:Kyle give me the top I'll give you a second but give me the top three teams in motion rate I'm just curious give me those numbers I bet it won't take you long to find them new additions Kenyon Sadiq 16th pick in the draft Omar Cooper Jr., 30th pick in the draft. Two offensive weapons.

50:23Jason Moore:Two first-rounders.

50:24Andy Holloway:This is how bad the Jets are. That a super-athletic, exciting tight end, a first-round wide receiver off a national championship team, and we're like, meh. I have little to no interest.

50:39Jason Moore:I think that this offense is interesting. I am interested in the Jets' offense. Now, I have little to no interest in those two specific rookies because of how they're going to be used. and the offense as a whole, but this defense is not good. Geno Smith can at least accumulate stats. We don't mind interceptions in fantasy football. Jameis was king of providing us a lot of passing yards. I do think with the weapons they have, with Brees Hall, with Garrett Wilson, the new additions of these two rookies, their offensive line is a little better. The offense should vary, maybe not to the level that the Cardinals at the second half of last year as a terrible team, but just that could actually go and score.

51:22Jason Moore:I see potential for the Jets' offense this year in fantasy. Like, I'm pretty in on Garrett Wilson. Are you in on Brees? And Brees, it depends on where he is in the draft. That really – I like Brees at a point, but I think he has limited upside.

51:38Mike Wright:3-10? Do you like him at 3-10? Yeah. RB 15 off the board?

51:40Jason Moore:Yeah. The 3-4 turn, I think that's an appropriate spot.

51:43Mike Wright:Message for Frank Reich. The top five coaches, offensive coordinators in motion rate. Since 2021. Mike McDaniel. Okay. Great offensive. Considered an offensive genius. Ben Johnson. Okay. KOC.

51:58Andy Holloway:Last year sucked, but overall. But overall, great offensive. Mostly winning teams here.

52:02Mike Wright:Shane Steichen.

52:03Andy Holloway:Turned it around.

52:04Mike Wright:And Sean McVay. Hmm. Hmm. Hmm. I don't want to do it.

52:10Andy Holloway:I don't want him to move. Put your feet in the concrete. I'll tell you who would run zero motion. Kyle Borginoni. Oh, really? Yeah, because he's like, oh, it's what the good people do. I won't do it. Oh, a contrarian take. Yeah, yeah. Oh, Frank Reich, handshake, Kyle Borginoni. Right? I bring that up because. He is the Frank Reich of our company. I bring that up because Meowson Taylor remains on the New York Jets. very famous second round pick Mason Taylor who we discussed at length and I may have referred to him

52:47Mike Wright:was that nickname of the year?

52:49Andy Holloway:it had to have been I brought that up because I watch Mason Taylor I don't see any dog he catches and he falls down that plays out over the course of an NFL season where he fails to force a single missed tackle and he's a featured part of the offense he's not trying to I bring this up because now Kyle's like, I'm rooting for Mason Taylor. And I'm like, what are you doing?

53:13Mike Wright:With Sadiq arriving?

53:15Andy Holloway:Yeah, I don't know. It's just Kyle. Now he's an underdog? It's just Kyle.

53:19Mike Wright:The case for Brees Hall, look, more scoring opportunities would go a long way. It was fourth in explosive run rate on a bad, bad, bad, bad team. 47th in touchdown rate. It's not too different than the can HN survive in Miami to the can Brees Hall survive in New York. they're going to just be key cogs of the offense both got paid this offseason both teams committed to them as their main running back uh so look you're i like my running backs to be on winning teams but everybody's got a call or featured or a feature back that can catch the

53:54Andy Holloway:football and breeze can do that yeah he can but i mean i'm not worried about braylon allen or isaiah davis i'm not worried about them as players i am worried about their coach making stupid decisions and being which one the head coach or like they have both honestly uh but i mean even last year it it didn't work out or we didn't get to see exactly how it's going to shake out because braylon allen got hurt very quickly but glenn continually talked about i want to use three running backs i want to use three and he still has said that so yeah that's annoying i i agree and when you get into the game we always say you you can have your plan but then eventually got to get your best players out there but it is a it is a concern but it is also it's factored into the adp

54:39Jason Moore:of breeze now sadique we've during the draft process we were not as bullish on sadique but he is not by any means a bad prospect this is a really good prospect super athlete i feel like i

54:51Mike Wright:was very neutral you were not a fan of his tape compared to like stowers well i was not a fan

54:58Jason Moore:compared to his projected and yeah because he was like a top 10 potential pick yeah exactly and you're like you didn't think that belonged correct but i do think he is very talented he's got a 95th percentile felix score so this is someone that needs to be remembered and looked at if you want to take a shot in you know i don't know where he's going in drafts right now but this would be let's say not drafted basically yeah so then you know your last round if you want to take a swing on this gino obviously has thrown to the tight ends frank reich has had a lot of success with tight ends and in in some of his systems they spent a lot of capital on him so um it's weird for me to be you know saying don't forget about the rookie tight end it's a little

55:39Mike Wright:off-brand but um you should be off um you should be off brand i'm gonna jump in real quick

55:47Jason Moore:Mason Taylor did not win nickname of the year. Oh, okay. This guy did. Oh. But Mason Taylor did take home a footy for a new category. Oh, that's right. The Meow Man of the Year. So he took that home.

56:04Mike Wright:Yeah, he was the only one nominated, but he did take it home. Here's what I will say. He ran unopposed. It's a small distraction, but in the vein of Sadiq, the rookie tight ends. the news right now out of Philadelphia is that Stowers is firmly third on the tight end. Oh, yeah. I didn't know Stowers is not on the radar. It's one of the reasons why we've talked so much. We know Devontae Smith's going to be heavily involved in that offense, but my goodness, Dallas Goddard is going to be involved in that offense. It's not a name anybody wants to be excited about, but Stowers is not a part of the picture, and Goddard has always benefited when one of those wide receivers was out, and it's just worth throwing out there.

56:37Mike Wright:We can talk about it

56:38Andy Holloway:again when we get to the nfc but garrett wilson where are you with his adp right now i'm seeing wide receiver 17 around there in the middle of the fourth finally i adore it okay oh yeah i i'm i'm

56:52Jason Moore:pretty uh bullish i i have garrett wilson right now as my wide receiver 12 so he sneaks in at a wide receiver one i i believe that this offense and defense combination the offense defense combination and the passing game upgrade over the quarterback of last year nobody likes gino more than you this year yeah i mean you are so into gino not that i think gino is good it's that it's gino is jacoby brissette he is totally fine to throw that's what you're hoping for that's my what i expect to just okay i'm just saying like gino was not jacoby brissette

57:29Mike Wright:when he played football last year.

57:31Jason Moore:Yeah, but Gino has support. He supported enough. Look at how he targeted Gentry. Obviously, Brock Bowers when he was playing.

57:39Andy Holloway:When Brock was playing, he was great.

57:41Mike Wright:He has a very limited sample there.

57:43Andy Holloway:But the Jets believe in him, and I don't know if that's a good sign. Every single year, you're like, oh, well, he's playing with the best quarterback that he's been able to play with.

57:54Mike Wright:For Garrett?

57:55Andy Holloway:Yeah. Guys like this, that often comes up. But Geno is more capable for fantasy production than Justin Fields was.

58:06Mike Wright:Yeah, because he's going to throw him more.

58:07Andy Holloway:Yes, that's what I mean. And Garrett Wilson, to start last year, it's lost to all of time. Garrett Wilson was awesome for fantasy football. There was tons of tons of garbage.

58:19Mike Wright:Do you guys realize something special about this team? I realize so many special things. The New York Jets or the Tennessee Titans are starting the year 1-0. No. Oh, nice. They play each other? They are facing each other in week one. So the Titans or the Jets. Where is it? Tennessee? It's in Tennessee. So the Jets are underdogs against Tennessee. Then they play Green Bay at home, then Detroit, then Chicago, then Cleveland, then New England. Oh, mercy. They could be 2-4. How do you think Geno's? They could be 0-6. How many? I want to put this down on the board somewhere. Six weeks into the year, I want the interception total with that gauntlet of a schedule for Geno.

58:59Mike Wright:okay and let me let's let's inform this a little bit because we didn't talk about him too much geno smith the uh the newly minted quarterback of the new york jets last year i'm just he began the year with uh just for what did i say the first six weeks his first six weeks last year if you uh put them out over the year he would have been on pace for 28 picks and 51 sacks taken nice okay So four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten interceptions in his first six last year. Give me the number.

59:32Andy Holloway:I'm going to say eight through his first six. Yeah, I'll go under ten.

59:37Mike Wright:I'll say six. Give me seven. Give me seven picks for Geno Smith. There you go. There's your Jets.

59:45Jason Moore:Is this? I'm trying to look up the Jets' total passing yards as an offense last year, and I'm seeing 2 ,300.

59:55Andy Holloway:that can't be well uh that can't be right do you remember who uh led the new york jets in receiving yards no garrett wilson oh he but he didn't play the whole year seven games

1:00:07Jason Moore:oh my god just like feels tyrod taylor brady really throw for 2385 yards uh 2300 pro football

1:00:16Mike Wright:yeah gino's an upgrade yeah he is gino beat that he's an upgrade that doesn't mean he's good no

1:00:23Jason Moore:Exactly. Geno's not good. Low 3 ,000s. I mean, Geno was on pace for 3 ,500 last year. There you go. Drew for 4 ,300 the year prior. If he gets 3 ,000. Things are looking up, guys. I mean, 2 ,300 for an NFL franchise. They get 17 games. What? That's insane.

1:00:41Mike Wright:Garrett Wilson. This will be fun. A way to close the show. You ready? Quarterback's Garrett Wilson has caught a touchdown from him. You ready for this? This is exactly what we're talking about. Tyrod Taylor. One touchdown. Pro bowler. Tim Boyle, Mike White, Zach Wilson.

1:00:56Andy Holloway:He was awesome with Mike White, actually. By the way, this is – Top three NFL draft pick.

1:01:00Mike Wright:Yeah, Zach Wilson threw two to him. Joe Flacco. Aaron Rodgers threw six. Yeah. He played with Strebler. He played with Trevor Simeon. He played with Brady Cook. Is he cursed? What have they done? What have they done to my boy? Just giving him a lot to handle. All right, divisional prediction. I like this one. I know mine. I'm going Buffalo, New England, the Jets, and Miami. That is exactly what mine is as well.

1:01:29Andy Holloway:I will go Buffalo, New England, Miami, Jets.

1:01:35Mike Wright:Okay. There you go. We conquered the incredible AFC East and all those four juggernauts. Just New York, get serious.

1:01:49Andy Holloway:Like, have a heart-to-heart with each other.

1:01:51Mike Wright:Their break from playoff appearances is seven years to the next closest team.

1:01:56Andy Holloway:I know there's management. I know there's people in suits. And these people in suits sit at a big table, probably with real fancy glass holding them in this room. Have a serious conversation.

1:02:07Mike Wright:Get real. The name, the Jets. There's not like jet exhaust pumped into those rooms that is throwing them off or anything, is there? There's something going on. They belong in that. Stop cashing checks and win some games. They belong in the special club with us, the Cardinals and the Browns. And right, I mean, working their way really hard to get into that group is the Falcons. Let me say that. Falcons are the second longest drought from a playoff.

1:02:33Jason Moore:Yeah, the difference is the Falcons usually get close to the playoffs most years. They're like, they're never, you know, they're winning seven games like all the time. The Jets, when they're bad, they're often, I mean, they're. Winless type of season. Yeah, they're just putrid.

1:02:53Mike Wright:If you had to bet your house on Aaron Glenn being the starting. Oh, no.

1:02:57Jason Moore:I would double up whatever. Whatever. I mean, Aaron Glenn being the coach in 2027 is an impossibility. It's impossible that he is. Even with all those numbers Gino puts up for him? If Aaron Glenn is the coach in week 18, I will be blown away. That one I can see because maybe they just want to keep losing. I don't know. Yeah.

1:03:23Andy Holloway:I think they're with the Cardinals. They're going to be doing what they can. I'm saying not the players, not the coaches, but the up top they're going to be trying to lose.

1:03:33Jason Moore:As a Cardinals fan, I just need the Jets and the Dolphins to go one-on-one against each other. It's very important. We have our goals.

1:03:41Mike Wright:AFC West on our next episode, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders, And then on Thursday, we'll be tackling a mock draft episode before getting into the NFC divisional breakdowns. I mentioned the UDK, ultimatedraftkit.com, the live show, ballerslive.com for tickets on that. And the community, of course, the Foot Clan, the mighty, the strong, jointhefoot.com. You can check that out over there. If you sign up for Foot Clan Ultimate, you'll get everything we ever release always for free, part of the membership. So you can check that out. And we'll be back on Tuesday. Bye, everybody.

1:04:17Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

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