Fantasy Football - AFC North Breakdown + Don’t Be Surprised! - Podcast for 7/7

10:20Mike Wright:To look real nice. Chris Rodriguez, there was a report from the Athletics saying don't be surprised if he carves out an important role. There was also a report. The quotes? Don't be surprised. I know.

10:32Jason Moore:If he could do something.

10:34Mike Wright:We got to do more of those. Oh, I know. We got to break news. We have full authority to do those kind of posts. Listen, don't be surprised if, insert name here, plays football for them. I said, with all due respect. It didn't happen.

10:48Andy Holloway:Oh, I said, don't be surprised. I didn't say it was going to happen.

10:51Mike Wright:Were you surprised when it didn't happen? Listen, LaQuint Allen was making headlines last week as well. I told this to Jason yesterday, not to buy into hype train too much because we've got it from all three now. LaQuint Allen should be third down back for Jacksonville. They like him. They want to use him there. Chris Rodriguez is a thumper. He was at Kentucky with Liam Cohen, and he's 1 ,200 yards, and maybe he's the goal linebacker. And then Basial Tootin, the younger player with more upside. There's a chance Jacksonville is a really great offense with two frustrating situations at wide receiver and in the backfield.

11:27Mike Wright:Could be. Because, you know, on one hand, Basial. I will be surprised. Yeah. Don't be surprised. I won't be surprised. Whatever you say, I won't be surprised. You will not be surprised. Liam Cohen has shown a willingness to spread the ball around. So there's one player that benefits from success on offense no matter what happens in the backfield or in the wide receiver room, and that's Trevor Lawrence. But Brenton Strange has got a contract. Parker Washington, have you seen the numbers for slot-wide receivers with Liam Cohen in his career? They're pretty good. They're unbelievable. Everybody he's ever had.

12:01Mike Wright:and that's Parker Washington and then all the offseason high Brian Thomas Jr. The chemistry is really there this year. Oh yeah you got Travis Hunter still. Oh you got Jacoby Myers. I mean that's a lot of mouths to feed and then oh we're going to pass to some of these running backs and then LeQuint Allen's going to catch the ball like Basial Tootin can catch it. Yes he can. So I don't know.

12:22Jason Moore:I feel like it is a little bit messy. Yeah I mean it's a reason to go in on horse boy. If you want. Oh man. I forgot about that. Yeah, we forgot about that. Oh, there he is. Yeah, horse boy is here. There he is with his fake haircut. Trevor Lawrence, a young stallion, he'll be valuable for fantasy. I don't think there's a world where he gets as much rushing touchdowns as he had last year, so the passing numbers will have to come up. But it could happen. I mean, losing Travis Achan Jr., being in a second year in the system, I think it – I like Trevor Lawrence. What is our rule here?

12:56Mike Wright:What are we doing with the Achan thing? I don't know. The first announcer says ETN, we're good, right?

13:03Andy Holloway:That's why we say Travis H.N. Jr. Exactly. You have to say the whole thing. Travis.

13:08Jason Moore:Don't do this. Hey, you said it. I made a mistake.

13:11Andy Holloway:Don't be surprised if I say Travis now. Having said all that, I am still very, very in on Tootin for the time being. Don't be surprised if I change my opinion. I mean, is he in my guy category? We're pretty close, man. I am very excited about the player, the opportunity, and the offense. I don't know, man.

13:36Jason Moore:Another report comes out, don't be surprised if Chris Rodriguez carries out an important role, but he's not even playing football right now.

13:41Mike Wright:They expect him to be full go for training camp. That's the last report. But no, he's not playing football. Clearly not a lot of people are playing football. They're taking cruises right now.

13:49Andy Holloway:Up till this point, nothing super matters because the training camp can change everything.

13:55Mike Wright:Basial Toon for me is the running back 27 in my UDK rankings. I don't know where he is for you guys.

14:02Andy Holloway:Let me find him real quick.

14:04Mike Wright:I'm not a subscriber.

14:05Andy Holloway:So I wouldn't know. I am at 24 currently. Okay. 24 as well.

14:10Mike Wright:I have C-Rod, Crod, as we call him. Crod. At 47. 49. So we're similar. Okay.

14:21Mike Wright:Al said Brandon Ayoub needs to take a cruise and not buy the Wi-Fi package. You are not wrong. The gap between being crazy and letting people know you're crazy. Yeah, it's an important one.

14:34Jason Moore:You need a bigger gap than that. And you know what is usually the protective layer? The agent who he fired. Hey, get an agent and they will be like, I am my own PR. Give me your phone right now.

14:48Andy Holloway:Our guy needs some friends. He needs to be grounded. He needs some friends right now.

14:53Mike Wright:He filmed himself in a closet taking 50s out of a backpack and throwing them on the ground.

14:59Jason Moore:He filmed himself just getting closer and closer to the camera. Just circling back and then be like, look, I'm closer. Look, I'm closer. Look, I'm closer. Have you guys seen that one? Yeah, I saw it.

15:10Mike Wright:I did not see this. It's a great screenshot for different reactions. Yeah, don't buy the Wi-Fi. He was so good. Somebody go disconnect his router and he'll never know. He would never know. He's going to just be talking into his phone and no one will see him.

15:26Andy Holloway:Someone help him, please. Ah, yuck.

15:29Mike Wright:Okay. We'll take a quick break because I want to jump into the AFC North Divisional Breakdown.

15:38Jason Moore:See you Sunday on Paramount Plus, your streaming home for the NFL on CBS all season long. That's right, football fans. Stream your live local CBS games every NFL Sunday all the way through the AFC Championship game. Follow the league's biggest stars, the can't-miss matchups, the season's biggest storylines, and catch additional coverage with NFL Today, NFL Today Plus, CBS Sports HQ, Fantasy Football Today, and more. So sign up and sign in to Paramount Plus today, and we'll see you Sunday for another thrilling season of NFL on CBS. streaming live on Paramount+.

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17:26Jason Moore:Let's get divisional.

17:31Mike Wright:All right, it is that time of year. This does feel like the series of shows where we turn the corner on the season, getting ready to start in training camp. um was that a new graphic up there no sir okay well it was new last year well i just watched it for the first time it's pretty nice i like it all right a reminder of what these shows are all about we're starting with the afc north they are a general overview of the offseason changes it might be about you know different players that were added subtracted rookies coaching changes yep um how the offense might function this year our our takes on win totals who could win the division uh we looked back at the stats and uh it was pretty close last year i think in terms of getting you know i might have won by one pick or something like that but we were all pretty close on getting uh some of the teams i think it was 10-9-9 on getting teams right in terms of division picks here we are the afc north if you remember this one just like everyone expected it was decided in week 18 if you remember pittsburgh last second touchdown calvin austin yes the steelers won the division 10 and 7 and you know what just saying it like that i'm gonna get so much hate but let's be honest like what they was that team like they won seven in their one score

18:57Jason Moore:games they went seven and three and we've seen this so many time after time after time when when the ball bounces your way in all the close scoring games it's not sticky well i mean it might be for

19:08Mike Wright:them because they just never seem to lose but the huge change you know the mike tomlin era is over during 19 seasons as a head coach mike tomlin never finished with a losing record

19:21Andy Holloway:sounds like someone who just lost his job no he walked away he walked away my yeah their win

19:31Mike Wright:total last year was eight and a half. Vegas is preseason win total. They were seven and three and one score games this year. Their preseason win total, eight and a half. And Warren Sharp has their strength of schedule at 18th. But a first place schedule means they'll be playing in New England, in Pittsburgh, or sorry, in Philly. Also, they'll play in Pittsburgh. Denver, they'll play this year. They were not, the reason that we say that, and it's not, look, on one hand, incredible job by Mike Tomlin and this team. They always find a way to be resilient, to win close games. I would not just attribute that to luck.

20:09Mike Wright:I would attribute it to veteran quarterback mixed with good coaching. But this was the 26th ranked offense in yards per game. So it wasn't an offense in fantasy that we enjoyed. I mean, when Kenny Gainwell leads the way for your team in terms of receiving, after you pay DK Metcalf you know none of the hyper excitement around the tight ends paid off I was looking at

20:33Jason Moore:they have the most vacated targets in the NFL and I was like how they didn't lose anyone they lost like Calvin Austin and Johnnie Smith Kenny Gainwell by the way those were probably I mean DK Metcalf was bad so those were your targets Johnnie Smith was a big target this is going to be a crazy change because you have both. You have a big change in the players and at the same time a big change in the philosophy of the team. Tomlin was a known commodity and while obviously you've got Mike McCarthy who we've got plenty of years with him this is a new experience, new team, new players whereas Mike Tomlin I just felt like you kind of knew exactly what you were going to get hopefully you have much more passing this year I think we've seen that from Mike McCarthy.

21:25Jason Moore:The fact that they went out and got Michael Pittman, traded for him, paid him. They drafted Jeremy Bernard with one of their high draft capital picks. He has a second-round pick. I mean, this looks like a team that wants to pass the ball more than what Mike Tomlin did.

21:41Mike Wright:Well, I mean, even if they don't, the fact you have the most vacated targets, Johnny Smith, Kenny Game, while Calvin Austin leaving, Pittman should get a ton of targets. They brought in Rico Dowdle. Jeremy Bernard will have an opportunity to crack into the rotation. But I also think – He's competing with Roman Wilson right now for the wide receiver. Okay, so he'll win that. He probably should, yes. I will say this. With the vacated targets – I won't be surprised. You won't be – thank you, Mike. You are really going in on that line. I think Pat Friermuth is the biggest sleeper on the team. Really?

22:14Mike Wright:In terms of – A muth? I think he's the biggest sleeper on the team. Yeah, I think – He's been so tight.

22:19Jason Moore:He's got to get Luth again. you're saying because of the Kenny Gainwell type of targets

22:24Mike Wright:and Johnny Smith being gone both of those situations Michael Pittman will get his I just think if you wanted to tell me pick a tight end that just out of nowhere has 10 touchdowns this year I think Pat Frymouth is my answer to that question it doesn't mean that if Arthur were there I think I would agree that's another big change Brian Angelico is taking over Arthur Smith is gone

22:46Andy Holloway:last year they were tied for the lowest percentage of targets to the wide receiver position at 45%, which is.

22:54Mike Wright:Yeah, but what percentage of your own targets, if you were a quarterback, would you throw to DK Metcalf? Me? Yeah, you personally. You're dropping back to pass. Me?

23:02Andy Holloway:I don't even like it, but I still would hyper-target him. He's gigantic.

23:06Mike Wright:Yeah, it would have been like 30 % last year. So, look, the offense is going to be something we're paying close attention to in terms of what does Aaron Rodgers have left. It's one thing to say they want to pass it more. It's another thing to say, like, the depth of target, you know, it fits Pittman. It fits Fryermuth. It fits backfield targets for Jalen Warren. It doesn't fit. Heidenreich. Yeah, go. Just throw more names in there.

23:33Jason Moore:Seventh round pick.

23:34Mike Wright:Yeah. Hopefully, the Swiss Army night. Let me just. No. No, no, no. Swiss Navy. No. You don't get to talk about any Pittsburgh depth at running back for one year. I agree. You get one year. All right. I'll take my. You get one year off. All right. I agree he's also going to be on the practice squad so enjoy that maybe um so let's talk fantasy though let's talk how we're actually viewing I think the big names Metcalf Pittman Jalen Warren and maybe the Rico Dowdle what that looks like in the in the equation yeah for for me

24:04Jason Moore:when I went back and I watched the tape of Aaron Rodgers um he looked like he had to check everything down. When I watched his clean pocket 20-plus air yard throws, it was really bad. I don't know that he really has that in his arsenal anymore, and I don't think it was a weapon problem. I mean, Calvin Austin can get open deep. DK Metcalf is good enough to receive those targets. They were very bad. This is why, personally, I have Michael Pittman leading in targets, because I think they might not be as valuable as deep down the field, but I think the possession type of receiver is something they really, really need.

24:49Jason Moore:So for fantasy purposes, I don't think there's going to be a lot to love here, but I do have personally Pittman in the lead at target.

24:58Mike Wright:Mike, if you look at your rankings, do you have Pittman or DK Metcalf leading in fantasy points and like a half point.

25:03Andy Holloway:I have Metcalf higher with just some more touchdown opportunity, but neither of them are ranked out of control. They don't look like primary targets, I would say, in the draft.

25:19Jason Moore:I have Metcalf ahead of Pittman in fantasy points total. Targets were more ahead in Pittman and both outside the top 30.

25:26Mike Wright:The number one Pittsburgh player off the board in fantasy right now. Do you want to guess the round?

25:34Andy Holloway:eight yeah i feel like it's no no does metcalf drop into the eighth i'll go seven the first

25:42Mike Wright:pittsburgh player off the board in fantasy right now is jalen warren in the sixth round okay jalen warren uh one thing to pay attention to there like the workload has increased year over year uh averaged 16 opportunities a game last year but if you look at his five zone carries the opportunities he had to get into the end zone he converted four of 14 so 29 whereas you look at rico dowdle he converted six of his eight opportunities last year in carolina yeah i'm

26:12Andy Holloway:either the backfield i do think is is interesting not sure which of them is going to end up being the leader but just a reminder rico dowdle played with mike mccarthy when when rico had his breakout year in Dallas. He wanted to. What's that?

26:27Mike Wright:I said he really wanted to play for Mike McCarthy. Well,

26:29Andy Holloway:he did when he broke out and had a thousand rushing yards, when he had to take the job away from Ezekiel Elliott. And Rico's not a nothing in the passing game. You don't think of him that way, but he's actually solid. His hands are fine and he can get it going. I'm not saying he's better than Jalen Warren, but I'm saying in terms of him just being on the field, like he can operate in in that part of the offense as well so i lean you lean on the based off of adp and everything i lean on the rico side yeah it it's it's an argument to be

27:05Jason Moore:made that you get the discount to take the second guy going late i assume he's at least around later but sometimes in mocks i've seen him go like back to back i'm no he's around and a half later um i I would take the bet on Jalen Warren simply because Aaron Rodgers, Mike McCarthy, they've played together before. Aaron Rodgers is going to check the ball down. But Aaron Rodgers wants, like, he's got the quick step drop where he is timing and rhythm. And he wants this guy in the exact right spot. I think Dowdle is a better athlete, more explosive. But Warren, the way that Rodgers talked about him last year, I know he got injured and then Kenny Gainwell kind of stepped in.

27:45Jason Moore:but the way he talked about Warren was like that veteran who he can rely on and so I do think that's who Rogers is going to want on the field he could that it that's a huge part of it that we don't

27:57Andy Holloway:know yeah but just like Rico you know and the his two year we'll go the the past three years he was his catch rate is great it's 77 percent or higher you know yards per catch eight and a half down to 6.4 and then 7.6 this past year with Carolina they're just he he has it is what I'm saying so if I'm making the the bet in the draft the more while Warren probably profiles as the the pass catcher there's a chance that Rico's the the first and second down guy which he'll still get plenty of targets playing for Rodgers if that's his role plus goal line hasn't that has me leading lean

28:36Mike Wright:dowdle in the draft uh by the way the last three teams and seasons that rogers has played 14 fantasy points 15 fantasy points 14 fantasy points per game we are we are many years removed from yeah now split that up amongst all the targets yeah that that is a huge problem i will say only 54 targets for fry me last year in this offense he's had seasons of 98 and in 70s multiple times just keep it in the very deep recesses of your mind and probably don't worry about it too much all right baltimore the baltimore ravens um i mean what a afc north is full of a lot of transition from you know long 10 years of the head coaching position last year the projected win total 10 and a half they were two and five and one score game so you talk about the inverse of of what the you know the sealers did that's something that you could see especially with Lamar Jackson being healthy.

29:33Mike Wright:Two and five is pretty extreme. They went eight and nine. Their win total this year is up to 11 and a half. I think there's a lot of excitement about Baltimore. They were 10th in points per game last year on the offensive side, 15th in yards per game. But a brand-new head coach, Jesse Minter, Declan Doyle, year one offensive coordinator. So before we get into the names and the players, just your reaction to the change. Harbaugh and Tomlin had been the rivalry for years and years and years. Now you've got a young defensive-minded head coach in Jesse Minter. How do you feel about the transition?

30:09Andy Holloway:For the transition, I'm fine. Overall, we side on you'd rather have your offensive mastermind being your head coach because Declan Doyle's coming in. He is a protege of the Ben Johnson system, which that's super exciting. You know, like we had the McVay guys leave out and scatter amongst the NFL. And it really, those are the teams that we go after for fantasy football. Ben Johnson, I think is going to have the same type of tree. Like he's his offense. He's just Ben Johnson's smarter than you are. Like, that's just how I feel about him. So Declan Doyle coming down is exciting for this year. I just, you would be, or if I'm Baltimore, or I'd be concerned that if you're good, you're going to lose Declan Doyle.

30:57Andy Holloway:That's longer term. Yes, that's the zoomed out long-term version. But for this year, I think it's pretty exciting.

31:05Mike Wright:Yeah, and I think that the win total says a lot about what's expected. Jason, do you have thoughts on that transition?

31:10Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, I don't see it as an up arrow because Todd Monken was someone we loved. It's not like you're going from a bad offensive mind. Todd Monken in year two, two years ago with Lamar, was unbelievable. Lamar put up fantasy-breaking stats again. I do like Declan Doyle. I think he might be good, but good to me is sideways. The win percentage I think is fantastic. The fact that they're projected for 11.5 with the sixth easiest schedule coming up, that gives me excitement more for really Derrick Henry. the running game I think that obviously at some point the Immortal One will have to shed his Yeti fur but until it happens I'm going to assume that I'm going to take the ageism deduction and I'll be drafting Derrick Henry you just want that guy that's built same size as like a Jalen Brunson he's got the pounds on him but same height yes that's such a funny we're just laughing at like

32:21Mike Wright:whenever you compare nba players height to the biggest guys in the nfl how comical it is but like jalen brunson's the same height if derrick henry were on an nba court you'd be like who's that little guy yeah it's like crazy crazy the king yeti eight straight season of double digit rushing touchdowns for derrick henry 27 carries inside the five so he is an outlier i'm with you i i would buy into another year of derrick henry i mean what what are your options for if

32:51Jason Moore:you're baltimore yeah i mean i mean behind derrick henry it's justice hill rashin ali boy justice hill's always around yes he is they drafted a guy that we liked in the draft process and adam randall because he's a converted wide receiver to running back and also when they say they drafted the owner drafted and handpicked justice hill hasn't had a key to the building

33:11Mike Wright:in five years but he just waits for somebody to open the front door and he slips in and yet he remains the insurance back he is and um you know we've had a lot of conversations i think about the wide receiver position and what to expect eclendoyle like you said there's excitement the schedule it's good zay flowers has been their dude in the wide receiver room it's been an offense where we've seen it filter through the tight end position we've had mark andrews have elite years we've had isaiah likely involved in the offense zay flowers is their guy his target share has gone up each of the three seasons i am i am more i think i'm softening a negative stance on flowers for a couple of reasons i don't think that you know i'm not going to look at like acquisitions of jacoby lane elijah surratt as you know target challenges to zay flowers and also it's the draft cost i mean if i can get zay flowers in the fifth round hey welcome aboard that's that's just too good of an opportunity and it's too good i mean lamar jackson had nine percent of his attempts as in zone attempts that's the highest rate in the entire nfl he likes zay flowers and i don't think that we should if you told me he's getting drafted at where he finished last year i'm out yeah he he

34:24Jason Moore:was you know the worst wide receiver seven of all time but he was still the wide receiver seven but you're not drafting him like that you're drafting him as a as a you know mid wide receiver three absolutely in the fifth round that's that's fine and so i'm fine drafting a guy there that you know is going to be the leader you know zay flowers is the leader of a good offense that's all you know now i also feel like we can reliably say we know he's not getting double digit touchdowns he's i don't think that's i don't think at the end of his career you're gonna be like oh that was his outlier with 10 touchdowns i think it'll be like oh he had no i mean he's been five four five you're

35:02Mike Wright:you're not going to get that. Those end zone targets that you're talking about.

35:05Jason Moore:Those go to Mandrews.

35:07Mike Wright:Yeah. Those don't go to, uh, there's not a lot of those going to, um, to Zay flowers, but it is, let me see how many targets he had inside the red zone. He had 11 total targets in the red zone. One, five zone target, five, tens on targets had one touchdown in the red zone last year. But this,

35:27Andy Holloway:what I like about say is the talent of the player. I think Zay Flowers is a top-tier wide receiver. He was not the archetype of the big number one guys out there. No, he's 5 '9", 180. But how shifty he is and his ability to get open are what's exciting about Zay Flowers. The proof is already there. Target share going up three straight years at 28 % target share last year. That's an elite target share. and the I think that I view the change of offense here as a positive a lot of the times you're like oh I would like things to stay the same but the fact that it's changing and Zay Flowers will clearly be the number one option in the passing game like it could get better and like you said

36:17Mike Wright:are you trying to project like a Amon Ross St. Brown situation for him with the tree the Ben

36:22Andy Holloway:johnson tree i mean it's it's the like that's that's the easy logical comparison you know of saying a smaller guy which amin raw is smaller but zay flowers is smaller than amin raw so it's not a one-to-one it makes sense for that for that type of a thing to happen where it's like right now the wide receiver two on the balsamor ravens is is and remains rashad bateman for the next four years he's under contract who just keeps getting contract extensions with the baltimore ravens despite never coming through with anything and then that you know with lane and surat being drafted this year they're fighting to overtake bateman they aren't fighting to take over for

37:05Mike Wright:for zay flowers so by the way bateman threw his nine healthy games last year on pace for 60 targets and 30 catches so a player four more years a player going where zay flowers is going knowing

37:18Andy Holloway:I'm getting 25 % at least of the targets. He's really interested.

37:23Jason Moore:Are either of you taking a shot on one of the rookies? No. Not in redraft.

37:28Andy Holloway:Yeah. I'm probably just going to.

37:31Mike Wright:The fact you had to put it that way is part of the problem. The fact that it reminds me of when we had a handful of Green Bay Packers rookies that you could have taken a shot on years ago, and it was like. Was Jacoby in the third?

37:43Jason Moore:Jacoby Lane was drafted ahead of Elijah. I don't remember.

37:45Mike Wright:But not by a lot. I mean, it was like third and fourth round. And here's my problem with it is I feel like you have to win. You've got to win the lottery twice. You've got to have the rookie have the first-year impact in the third or fourth round of the draft on a team that hasn't had anybody outside of Flowers make any impact. Then you've got to get the right one. Yeah. So that is something. Look, if you watch training camp. You're right. And one emerges. And one is like, oh, my gosh, this guy's amazing. Then maybe there's room. but i'm rooting for you elijah i really do like surat a lot i i would say there's two more major conversations on this team one is lamar jackson just like do you get the bounce back fantasy

38:30Jason Moore:season from lamar i am fully in on lamar i do last year the same way i i just i'm deleting it he was injured four different you know it was tough after week nine and um he's lamar they're 11 and a half win total i i i'm totally fine drafting lamar just for context he was the number

38:49Mike Wright:one quarterback in 2024 with 25 points a game he dropped to 16 a game last year that's his lowest since his rookie year he had 349 rushing yards last year and i know he was hurt but that is yeah his yards per attempt were way down and you might get a value on him and then the last one is just the conversation around mark andrews the statistical output for andrews has declined year over year um not the same player certainly a red zone threat at all times but 11 fancy points per game to nine to six only 70 targets the last two years he's a touchdown machine yeah he could

39:27Jason Moore:he could easily have easily have 10 touchdowns this year and you'll be fine for where you draft him in fantasy if he doesn't get a touchdown in the game he's no longer the possession guy he's not going to be up there at a thousand yards last year without in games where he didn't have a receiving touchdown averaged 4.2 fantasy points per game however he's free I don't I don't even know if he's drafted in every free of Isaiah likely and so yeah Isaiah likely being gone they brought in Smythe so don't worry about it and they they paid Andrew so he's still going to be very involved on a good team I'm fine like you know my strategy I want one of those top tier tight ends and if not I will grab whoever is left over your strategy is Laporta at all costs based on our last draft.

40:09Jason Moore:Laporta at a cost. Oh, okay. I mean, if he falls to an upright, sure. But I am fine with scrap leftovers when there's guys like Mark Andrews who could go out, be undrafted, and score 10 touchdowns. Your mock draft ended up so good for you. I like it.

40:22Mike Wright:Getting Josh Allen in the fifth round and then getting Laporta as late as you did. It's like the ninth. Your onesies were the biggest discounted players. It was great. We'll take a break. We'll talk Bengals.

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41:39Jason Moore:See you Sunday on Paramount Plus, your streaming home for the NFL on CBS all season long. That's right, football fans. Stream your live local CBS games every NFL Sunday all the way through the AFC Championship game. Follow the league's biggest stars, the can't-miss matchups, the season's biggest storylines, and catch additional coverage with NFL Today, NFL Today Plus, CBS Sports, HQ, Fantasy Football Today, and more. So sign up and sign in to Paramount Plus today, and we'll see you Sunday for another thrilling season of NFL on CBS, streaming live on Paramount Plus.

42:24Mike Wright:All right, two teams we've talked about, two more to go. the 6-11 Cincinnati Bengals.

42:32Jason Moore:Oh, man.

42:33Mike Wright:They had an 8.5 win total last year going into the season. They had a tough schedule. Ten of their games were against teams with a winning record, which was the most in the NFL, and a lot of those came down to the wire, and they didn't win a lot of those ones that came down to the wire. They were 3-5-1 scored games. We know Burrow. The story with Burrow is when he plays football and has a healthy chase in Higgins, it's pretty magma. And we also got to enjoy one of the worst defenses ever for Cincinnati. Very enjoyable. We'll talk about that momentarily. But, you know, they lost back to that games last year where they scored 37-plus points in both of them.

43:13Mike Wright:They lost to the Jets 39-38. They lost to the Bears 47-42. They gave up 39 points to the Jets? Yeah. I do not remember this. Man, that defense sucks. It's probably because you were too busy watching the fantasy points pile up on the offensive side. But the projected win total just jumped one game to nine and a half. They have the third easiest rank to schedule, at least right now. That looks pretty good. Favored in 15 of 17 games. And they have a wild amount of games with huge, like, yeah, huge lines. Like, you know, 50.4 as the total for a Dallas game. So crazy. but but let's talk about um the big picture here for the fantasy production of this team let's start with that defense that was so atrocious that meant he had to score a ton of points they did spend a lot of time this offseason they made the huge trade for dexter lawrence um jonathan allen is there that's huge i mean they brought in a safety they brought in

44:20Jason Moore:a defensive end their draft was focused there rightly so i think it will be a an improved

44:25Mike Wright:defense but normally you see those transitions take a couple years to get to the point where you know I think Dallas will be better than they were last year I think I think Cincinnati will be better than they were last year but when you're 31st you got a long way to go oh yeah

44:39Jason Moore:get get a little better but just you know stay bottom just stay bottom third um you know they coming off of last year where they could not rely on a defense I I think that even if the defense is improved this is going to be an offense with the pedal to the floor to avoid their defense giving up late you know I don't I don't think this is going to be a team that's trying to you know halfway through the third quarter run the ball out slow it down this is Joe Burrows team yeah well that's I mean but even if they've got a lead and they and they and they think that they could do that I think they're going to keep putting the ball in Burrows hands throw it a lot scored a ton of points this is an offense that i think everyone wants and yes well you're not going to get a discount on chase burrow right now you know isn't being overdrafted are you both

45:28Mike Wright:lamar over burrow in your rankings or do you have burrow higher i think that's an interesting one for people because like lamar right now adp wise is the cheapest he's been over the last five years in the fourth round i'm guessing burrow's in a lot of leagues going ahead of him uh yeah right

45:45Jason Moore:now I've got Lamar in both six point and four point ahead of Burrow. I have Burrow's ahead for

45:50Andy Holloway:me in six point. Here's what I think the format matters for these ones.

45:54Mike Wright:I don't feel like Cincinnati is a difficult projection of a team. No. Like what's wild is like Zach Taylor is going into his eighth year. Every other head coach in this entire division is a first year head coach. He's like the longest tenured guy by a long stretch and we just know what to expect. We know that he's not going to do anything to like slow burrow down or stop burrow from throwing the ball as many times as he he did last year his final six weeks of the year he was on a 17 game pace burrow was a 4500 passing yards and 43 passing touchdowns now there was a desperation to that team trying to find a way to to you know get close enough to where they could get help to get into the playoffs and all of that you know burrow is always going to be a little bit of an injury risk I think I think we'd all he will be even when you drop back like you take the injury history aside when you drop back and throw the ball that many times it's a risk well you have

46:47Andy Holloway:well we have six years of Joe Burrow and three of them he's had catastrophic injury yeah but the three where he's playing you know the the full season he's throwing for over 4500

47:01Jason Moore:yards and 30 plus touchdowns yeah I mean for fantasy this is really easy all four guys are

47:07Mike Wright:good burrow chase brown yeah even chase brown yep those those four where they're going in drafts i

47:13Jason Moore:am thrilled to have them on my team i think they can be actual difference makers i want pieces of this team and the best part of getting pieces of this team is it's consolidated no one else is really going to take away from those four players so i i think they are a tight end to give you you

47:29Andy Holloway:know what i mean this is going to be you do if t higgins misses time mike gosicky yeah if like

47:34Mike Wright:Sticky Gesicki. I don't like that nickname. But it rhymes. It's been a while since we've brought it up, and now I'm a little scared of it. They're just great.

47:46Andy Holloway:They're just so fantastic for fantasy.

47:48Mike Wright:They're very similar to Dallas, legitimately. They're very similar situations.

47:52Andy Holloway:They really are, because if George or CeeDee misses time, I'm very interested in Jake Ferguson at that point. Otherwise, I'm not.

47:59Mike Wright:No, and you love Pickens.

48:00Andy Holloway:You love CeeDee. Yeah. You love Dak. No, and Chase Brown, to me, yet again, is one of, I think, the best picks at ADP.

48:10Mike Wright:One thing I didn't mention that I think, at least for these last two teams, is worth mentioning, is the start you're going to get in fantasy from these players. The first six matchups for Baltimore, they're favored by 3-1⁄2, 7-1⁄2, 2-1⁄2, 8-1⁄2, 4-1⁄2, 6-1⁄2. They're playing, now, four road games, but they're favored in all of them. and for Cincinnati they're favored in five but they have an early buy in week six so I mean that's

48:36Andy Holloway:just worth worth noting but they're favored in four of five sorry four of the five yep Houston

48:41Jason Moore:uh they are not in week two which we could use a stronger start from yes oh my god it seems impossible for them to start week one burrow is always bad they're at home against Tampa he should

48:52Mike Wright:be good but it's always scary come on you could do it this year burrow um we didn't talk about him extensively, but Chase Brown, how safe do you view him as a fantasy pick today?

49:03Jason Moore:Incredibly. Super duper safe. He's like so

49:06Mike Wright:perfect because he's not a thumper, so like you said, they're not going to have these big leads where they give the ball to a Derrick Henry that wears the game out, but he's always going to be out there on the field. He can catch the football. He was the fifth most receptions at the running back position.

49:20Jason Moore:When they throw it to you and they give you touchdown opportunities and you're on a great offense, that's all I need.

49:27Mike Wright:Who's the rumored free agent for Cincinnati there was somebody that they were talking about could go there at running back I know it'll never happen because Chase Brown's recent like new ones yeah oh uh come oh there

49:38Andy Holloway:was Camara there was a passing Alvin Camara which is like when you located the source of it it's it's absolute nothingness okay well also he could go there and I wouldn't care by the way the funny

49:51Mike Wright:thing uh speaking of the Camara news I saw somebody break down the the metrics between Travis H.A. Jr. last year and Kamara's numbers in terms of all the efficiency metrics, and they were the same. Really? Yeah, they were just the same. But talk about running the football. Yeah, they were not... That seems impossible. Yeah, it was an NFL rumors thing about the Bengals being linked to Alvin Kamara. Yeah, I'm not worried about it. That's the last thing I want to do if I'm Alvin Kamara, is leave for your final year of just like... Just be a legend in that city. He feels like Fitz in Arizona. He wasn't going to go.

50:25Andy Holloway:If nothing changes for Chase Brown, his competition will be soon-to-be 31-year-old Samaj P. Ryan and Taj Brooks, a sixth-round pick, which Chase Brown was a later pick as well, and Taj Brooks has his supporters, but Brooks could not get on. Like my dynasty team? Your dynasty? You have Taj Brooks? I don't know if I do anymore. Probably.

50:50Mike Wright:I honestly don't. My Dynasty team's nickname now is Matthew Golden and the Scraps. My team is so bad. So it's just called the Scraps? It's just called the Scraps. The rebuilding process in Dynasty, just to give you the play-by-play, I haven't got to reflect on that yet because I've never done it. How's it going? It's miserable. It's necessary misery. Yeah. And it's multiple years if just you know you have to do it.

51:15Andy Holloway:It's like construction, man. While it's going on. It sucks. You hate everything. I want those lanes open. Yeah, you're like, those guys making a living.

51:24Mike Wright:Don't compare it to construction in your situation, because my rebuild is going to be five years.

51:29Andy Holloway:Wow. It's very similar, because once it's done, you're like, you forget. You forget about the construction. You're just like, oh, this freeway now has two extra lanes.

51:39Mike Wright:Yeah. I don't have the supplies necessary to build the house right now.

51:44Jason Moore:Okay. You know who's been under construction for about 30 years? The Cleveland Browns. Any day now.

51:52Mike Wright:They have not won the AFC North since 1989.

51:57Jason Moore:Okay. 30 was kind.

51:59Mike Wright:Falcon, when were you born?

52:01Jason Moore:96.

52:02Mike Wright:96. You freaking weirdo. Golly. So you've never seen Cleveland atop the AFC North? Nope. Josh has. All right. Cleveland 5-12 last year he had a 5.5 win total they delivered the 5 this year it's up at 6.5 guys fourth easiest strength of schedule and it's at 6.5 wins no more Miles Garrett

52:26Jason Moore:so like your reason to watch has gone down that's great news for the aforementioned Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals

52:36Mike Wright:Cleveland's favorite in two games this year against who? Atlanta and Las Vegas Kyle probably both home games Kyle the Browns are favored against your

52:49Jason Moore:that's gotta feel bad that has to hurt so much obviously that game's gotta be in Cleveland maybe in the winter

52:55Andy Holloway:oh my gosh and the old adage if you have two quarterbacks you have none what if you have none quarterbacks

53:06Mike Wright:you also have none yeah that's how the math works 30th in points per game last year or 31st, 30th in yards per game. You just said you love Todd Monkent, but this is a tall task. Year one as a head coach, he's 60 years old. We looked this up. There are eight first-time head coaches over the last 25 years that were 55. Or more. Good cutoff. Yeah. Didn't work out well for them. They averaged 6.4 wins. Only Bruce Arians and Mike Zimmer lasted more than three years. Todd Monkent, congrats on getting that job. Yeah. This was the one you're going to get.

53:40Jason Moore:Yeah, and to be clear, I don't know that Todd Monken is a good head coach. There are plenty of great coordinators who are not made to be head coaches. At 60, I think that's going to be even harder. But he's a good offensive mind, which is fun. Some of the things you've been hearing out of camp, which obviously this time of year are the only things you're going to hear are good. Oh, I really like the offensive system and some of the changes. but they went out and they spent in the draft on Concepcion and Denzel Boston

54:13Andy Holloway:we liked the players that they drafted we kind of wish they would have gone to a situation they could have more impact for fantasy football earlier but Concepcion, Denzel Boston has

54:24Mike Wright:Boston's been making a lot of headlines those are two players that

54:28Andy Holloway:we really liked we liked them as prospects and they're very I like that they're different archetypes you know and Concepcion if you're going to do the kind of the like the surface level well Mankin had Flowers Concepcion is a Zay Flowers type of archetype of a player so can he maximize what KC is good at

54:53Mike Wright:this was a team that was tied for the lowest wide receiver target percentage in the NFL last year ah yes with the Steelers so you know you have a situation where there is opportunity one of the big questions about cleveland is do we care who the quarterback is i mean because you kind of say well could it get worse like you know watson in 2024 was dead last in epa per play should do her in 2025 was dead last in epa per play at the end of the day i think my answer is still yes i do care like i i want somebody that's going to i don't care if your your epa per play is i mean i do care but i just want somebody that's going to give some of you know the harold fan in conception boston opportunities to make plays you're going to be losing a lot of ball games you talk about what kept them in it last year miles garrett was a big piece of the puzzle their defense was fourth in yards per game they will be a worse defense that is good for fantasy i do care i do care which guy emerges um and i just want opportunities for these young players i want harold fan to not be a sophomore Or flop.

55:58Jason Moore:This is the guy that hurts me the most in all of fantasy football is Harold Fannin because I love him. I think he is. We went into the offseason. When last season ended, I had Harold Fannin ahead of Tyler Warren and ahead of Colson Loveland. Then their teams changed. They got rid of DJ Moore. They got rid of Michael Pittman. It seemed like, okay, now there's clarity in those two. I would clearly take them over. But Fannin was so stinking good. and in the games where Shadur started which started in week 12 and if you take out the injury game where he was good because he got a touchdown but he only played 20 % of snaps.

56:33Jason Moore:During that stretch with Shadur in both of their rookie seasons he was on pace for 142 targets. 31 % team target share. Almost a thousand yards. 10 touchdown pace. He was dominant. And I want to be in on him.

56:50Mike Wright:I think that the case you have right there is that you were the terrible team and a terrible offense and a terrible quarterback pro bowler and but that you still had the effectiveness of fan and i have zero fear about boston and conception to me fan at all that is that is my fear i don't have any fear of that

57:08Andy Holloway:there i think them as a tandem even in year one it's better than what was going on last year oh it's better duty still on duty and duty it's better than what they had but you also had david

57:18Mike Wright:Njoku in this offense and the numbers you just read for him so much the numbers you just read for fan and were outrageous I mean you just need if your offense is going to be more competent with

57:28Andy Holloway:a offensive minded head coach was just phased out like I mean it started you know he was the guy

57:34Mike Wright:do you like Monkin or not do you think he can do better than what they've done I think you can do

57:39Andy Holloway:better than what they have done but quarterback is just it's the most important position in professional sports because if you if you don't have one and i mean like we saw it last year you know with jacoby brissett he's at least competent can shadour elevate his game where he's not dead last in epa and he's actually in a competent quarterback because he was not last year

58:06Mike Wright:i mean he was competent enough to give fanon some really good numbers yeah fanon was the tight end five with a missed game and an injury in his second to last game and they

58:14Jason Moore:grabbed Spencer Fano, number nine in the draft at offensive tackle, even ahead of adding Concepcion in Boston. I hate these middle-round tight ends, but I love Fano so much.

58:26Mike Wright:And you're convulsing a little bit. Yeah, it's really difficult. Anytime that you have just kind of a cloud of misery hanging over a team, I think there's opportunity in fantasy. It's going to depress values in ADP. the Cardinals are going to be depressed I'm depressed because I'm a Cardinal fan but the values are going to be depressed we saw a horrific Cardinals team put up great offensive numbers with multiple number one options in McBride

58:57Jason Moore:and Wilson but they had one of the worst defenses in the league in that stretch whereas the Browns have I know they lost Miles Garrett but they've still got a very good defense

59:07Mike Wright:they're going to lose almost all their games It's all that matters to me is that the Cardinals are going to win maybe a game this year. The Browns are going to win maybe two. And they're going to be trailing. They're going to throw the football.

59:18Andy Holloway:Fannin was prolific. So that turns the conversation then into Quinshawn Judkins, who, you know. I mean, he'll get it all.

59:26Jason Moore:Great prospects. Also was great as a rookie. You look at, no, you look at the numbers and you're like, oh, he didn't rush for a lot per carry. He, the offensive line was trash. You watch the games. He looked the part on the NFL field. It was not his fault that they were always down.

59:45Mike Wright:I'm much more on Jason's side on this. I don't care about the yards per carry number for him at all.

59:50Andy Holloway:Okay, not even yards per carry. 67 % of his runs were three or fewer yards. I mean, that's yards per carry. But that's just effectiveness. That's efficiency. I agree. Maybe the offensive line is not the best, but that's the worst rate in the NFL. For a player getting that amount of volume to not even be able to hit three yards on 67 % of your carries, that's a big deal. That's bad.

1:00:18Mike Wright:The numbers were bad for Jinty on his yards per carry. I mean, you are up against it when you have no quarterback play and you don't have the opportunity for the defense to focus on anything else. That's all I'm saying. And Monken's a better strategist. They have a better offensive line. And I'll take a 22-year-old running back who passed the eye test to me. That's all I'm saying.

1:00:36Jason Moore:I will too, but I don't like losing teams. I'm not going to put them at the top of my list. I don't think I'm going to do it this year. I want to give Judkins his props and just say he's a really good running back. But like you said, they're going to be losing games. I'd rather have him saying. They're going to be losing games, and they're not going to score a ton of touchdowns. This isn't the situation. They don't have a good offensive line, even though they added Spencer Fano. I think I would much rather go in on the passing than the running game.

1:01:01Mike Wright:Let's have the conversation around this division then. Jalen Warren or Quinshawn Judkins. because Warren is behind him in ADP. Warren. See, I'll take Judkins. I'll take the workload. David Montgomery or Quinchon Judkins. Montgomery's too small.

1:01:15Andy Holloway:I think I'll take Montgomery.

1:01:17Mike Wright:Jadarian Price is just behind him. Price will go up, though. Ramondre Stevenson or Quinchon Judkins. That one's funny. I'm going to make you say some name that you don't like. I will take Judkins there. Mike, you're going to answer. It's probably Ramondre. DeAndre Swift.

1:01:34Andy Holloway:Oh, that's easy, Swift.

1:01:35Mike Wright:Those are the guys going – so it's like Tootin, Swift, Judkins in drafts.

1:01:40Jason Moore:Most of those guys I would take over Judkins simply because of the Browns situation. And I do too. I love the player. I just don't know what the ceiling cap is.

1:01:49Mike Wright:Yeah. He is really up against it. Could he be a top 15 back if things went right? That's kind of the –

1:01:57Andy Holloway:A part of that discussion is the targets. and I'm not saying Judkins can't do that. We have some evidence in college that he can, but what we saw with Monken, with Derrick Henry, when it was time to pass the ball, Derrick Henry's off the field. You're saying this is a Dylan Sampson? And Dylan Sampson, last year he saw 40 targets. Sampsonite? As a rookie. That's all I think about it. It's so stupid. That's a question that we need training camp to hopefully answer for us is how does Monken view the offense? Is Judkins, to him, going to be on the field when game script is great? Or will he just be a three-down guy?

1:02:42Andy Holloway:That I don't think we have the answer to yet.

1:02:44Mike Wright:Start making your notes on your division order. Okay. All right. Because we've got to predict this division as we wrap it up. I don't know if there are any other big questions around Cleveland other than whether you'd take a shot on either of the rookie wide receivers. I think both are fine to take a shot on because they'll be very cheap. For the Browns? Yeah, I mean, Denzel Boston is the very – he's a perfect last-round pick in fantasy because you will not have to spin anything higher than that. He's made a lot of headlines. What's difficult –

1:03:13Jason Moore:What's a lot like the lottery ticket you were just talking about with the Ravens where you've got to then get the right rookie. Yeah, but he's at least the second-rounder.

1:03:20Mike Wright:And they're the one. I mean, you've got the chance to be the one on the team. Like, Zay Flowers, you're battling to be the three or the two.

1:03:27Andy Holloway:Just a reminder, when we said it, Jerry Judy's still on this team, and Isaiah Bond has been getting a lot of offseason hype around him. So the depth chart for the Browns is actually pretty murky right now at the wide receiver spot.

1:03:45Mike Wright:Would you draft Jerry Judy in a Jerry Judy-only league? No, I would quit. You'd pass. I would quit the league. My division winner is Baltimore, followed by Cincinnati, then Pittsburgh, then Cleveland.

1:03:56Andy Holloway:I have Cincinnati winning the division. I figured you would. Baltimore will go second, and then Steelers and Cleveland. Jason?

1:04:05Jason Moore:I've got Baltimore winning the division. I've got Pittsburgh second with the defense, Cincinnati third, and Cleveland is the free bingo square.

1:04:15Mike Wright:On Thursday, we will talk AFC South. And as a reminder, again, three shows a week. So we'll have a Saturday episode of the podcast.

1:04:26Andy Holloway:Oh, man, your lawn doesn't stand a chance. No, it doesn't. It does not.

1:04:30Mike Wright:And we will mix in some mock draft episodes in between divisional breakdowns as well. As we close things out, the Ultimate Draft Kit, go to ultimatedraftkit.com. The draft analyzer is live right now. And, you know, getting down to the final reminders here, there are only a handful of tickets left. But the Fantasy Footballers Live Megalist Show in Phoenix here presented by SiriusXM. and sponsored by GMC and PetSmart. Friday, August 28th at the Van Buren in Phoenix. Baldur's live.com is where you get tickets. There are a few mezzanine tickets left. There are a few kind of other floor tickets scattered around if you want to pick one up.

1:05:08Mike Wright:They're there, but they're going fast. It's going to be amazing. We want to see the Foot Clan there. You guys are awesome. It is never lost on us on how amazing our listenership is and your loyalty to the show and to fantasy football and all of the shenanigans on this podcast. We love you guys. That'll do it for today's episode. Franny, Mike, and Jason. We got the ducers back there, Al Borland, Papa Josh, and the Falcon. Born in 1996? Yeah. We'll see you later. Goodbye.

1:05:43Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

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1:07:00Andy Holloway:May be inappropriate for children under 13.