Fantasy Football - AFC South Breakdown + Booty Scootin' Bhayshul Tuten - Podcast for 7/9

14:05Mike Wright:but they were answered now they were also the the challenge that i see with jacksonville is you know they were they're going to play a first place schedule now they were six and three and one score games and the performance of trevor lawrence was so different than the rest of his entire career that i think in the back of my head i'm i'm waiting for the shoe to drop i mean indianapolis fell on their face because they lost their quarterback right tennessee was hapless and they have a brand new you know offensive you know coordinator that we like and a head coach that we respect so part of it was yeah you played a lot better but part of it was look trevor lawrence was just on fire trevor lawrence's rushing totals in particular nine rushing touchdowns is pretty wild and so when you look at what he's capable of doing with the weapons that he has he's not going to score nine times again no not on the ground no way so then the passing numbers you need to do what he did over the last you know 10 weeks of the season on the course of the whole year and and maybe that happens they were six in points per game 10th in yards per game and everything basically changed after the bye week for him i mean his completion percentage jumped four percent his yards per attempt jumped almost two yards passing touchdowns per game up to two from 1.3 it was just he was seven top 12 finishes in in the last 10 weeks

15:32Andy Holloway:He was at a 6.6 % touchdown rate after the bye week, which that's unsustainable. We have years and years of regression data. When a player is that high up in your touchdown percentage, it comes down, and it usually hits like a rock. But the fact that he was in the new offense, we saw what Liam Cohen did a couple years ago with Baker, and then kind of consequently the Bucs were not so great the following year. I'm more bought in on Trevor Lawrence and what the Jacksonville Jaguars are able to accomplish. Again, that level will come down, but Lawrence looks like a great pick right now in fantasy.

16:19I think there was a part of this offseason where I was pretty close to putting Trevor Lawrence as a definite my guy. I think I've come off of that a little bit just those rushing totals are concerning to me the fact that it is a division I think is very challenging and I'm just a little bit worried about the worst case scenario more than I am whether he can hit the best case scenario and so will he repeat as a fantasy difference maker Mike it sounds like you think the answer is yes yeah especially where

16:48Andy Holloway:he's going in the draft you know I'm seeing back of the eighth round for a guy that top five is in the range of outcomes to me i think that's that's very yeah i'm i'm fine taking trevor lawrence we

16:59Jason Moore:took him in a in a league we're in together earlier today at a good value i took him in scotty uh that being said the question as to whether or not he's going to fall on his face is just did he level up was it a true you know because he's been inconsistent i've never since his rookie year when he was supposed to be the next greatest thing he's he has not lived up to that but he's a horse boy for a reason and that is because he is a child part boy he is part boy he's 20 he's 26 boy half horse right right that is so the horse boy genetic name makes sense but i do think he might have genuinely leveled up he is he was young enough with a good system in place with liam cohen the second half of the year looked so much better where you know the completion percentage that that matters quite a bit to me and he has earlier in his career had you know he's always been in the 60s to start the season it was a little rough and then they figured it out he has weapons we talk about this all the time we don't know which Jacksonville Jaguar receiver is it Parker Washington because of the slot usage and all of the success that he had and that Liam Cohen has had with that role or is it Brian Thomas Jr.

18:09Jason Moore:because you know first round NFL draft pick who comes out in his rookie year and looks like a superstar or you know the the Travis Hunter there's so many options but it all goes to Trevor Lawrence I think he leveled up I am in on him at value I agree with you Andy he's not a guy I'm like hyper targeting and it's just I think we had my flag I think we had this conversation once in 2022 and that season ended and he was the quarterback eight and I again it's about worst case scenario for me which I've seen reversion from him whether it's week to week or season to season. That's just in the back of my mind.

18:44I agree with you. The value is probably fine to take a chance on it, but we do have questions up and down the offensive side of the ball in terms of who you're really going to place your bets on in the backfield. It's going to be Bayshall Tootin, Chris Rodriguez, and LaQuint Allen in some capacity sharing work. This was a team that made a concerted effort to go out and their name was brought up among other veteran offseason opportunities.

19:10Andy Holloway:So they are. As it should. If you're losing someone stabilizing like Travis H.N. Jr., who, I mean, and you brought up his inefficiency numbers, which that's true. He's kind of been inefficient his entire career. It's his thing. Yeah, but he just gets the ball a ton. And so you lose him, and the next man up is a fourth-round running back. the media is going to link you to other running backs. And they really – the splash was Chris Rodriguez who – It's not much of a splash. Yeah, but he's caught like a handful of passes in his entire career, just has never been able to get a toeing. If there wasn't a connection – That's a ripple in the water.

19:55Yeah, if it wasn't the connection between Cohen and Rodriguez at Kentucky – That's probably what got the deal done. We would probably not – we'd just be like, he's a depth piece. It doesn't matter. We brought it up on the last show. So, Basial Tootin did have problems getting in. Chris Rodriguez can get into the end zone. Yes. Basial Tootin inside the five, we don't know if that work is going to be his and how successful he'll be. That's what the question is. He had limited success. Who gets it? But he did have success.

20:22Andy Holloway:Tootin was better than HN Jr. inside of the five. Right. It comes down to what do you believe, who will get the work, and we always want the more talented player on the field. sometimes the coach just likes a player. And even if we're screaming at the television how inefficient it is, they're going to keep giving that player the work because they like them and they trust them. I think it ends up being Tootin. I think he gets just a crap ton of volume. So you can make the arguments that Tootin will be inefficient, but it's like, well, look, HN Jr. was inefficient last year. Chris Rodriguez was 4.5 a carry last year, and he did have enough work for that to matter.

21:06He had 112 carries. He scored six times in Washington. So it's worth noting that, like... Rodriguez is an interesting player. He's only 25.

21:14Andy Holloway:He's an interesting player. I just think that the upside is with Tootin.

21:19Jason Moore:I think that's really... It comes down to that explosiveness and speed. And if he is the first man up, the opportunity to utilize it. If you don't remember Tootin, the prospect as a rookie last year, he's 99th percentile explosiveness, 4-3-2 speed. so it's exciting for fantasy purposes because if one of those two guys has a real breakout this year it will be tootin like chris rodriguez could be a value he could end up he could being someone that is a is a good draft pick but i doubt he's got you know like oh he's rb1 at the end of the year whereas tootin i think has that upside that allure um i lean more towards andy side where andy side where i am skeptical that he will be the darling that so many people believe like i There is a Tootin fan club out there, and they are having a rootin' Tootin' time because there's a lot of them now.

22:09He was only 3.7 a carry on his attempts last year. He made plays. He is a playmaker. And then LaQuinn Allen, how much will he be a factor, a Justice Hill factor on third down? I don't know. That's just where we're at with this discussion. And so you're taking a shot on, like, the Tootin draft pick. There's a handful of these every single year. you're drafting a player to be something for your lineup that you're not 100 certain he'll be yes and so there's upsides to that and there's downsides to that but where he's going right now what's the adp on to in the fifth round i mean that's that's tough that's rb 22 off the board the usual dead that's a vote for liam cohen but yeah that's the usual dead zone for running

22:49Jason Moore:backs right yeah you usually those mid-round guys what it is is is exactly what he is those those middle round picks are the ones that aren't sure things there you're not positive but there's there's hope and there's reason to where it's like okay i i could see the path so he he goes up higher than being a late round pick and that's usually when it doesn't work and and this is the kind of like basal toot young exciting good offense we like yes david montgomery all the volume on a playoff team that's a decision to make for fantasy managers that's between those and they're very different archetypes it's fair um so that's one where i'm gonna be on i'm leaning towards the montgomery side of that equation same um and jason said sames well i wanted to say samesies but i felt like that was too stupid but you said you didn't know i just said sames that would be too stupid i don't know if we've talked about something more in the offseason than the

23:44Andy Holloway:wide receiver yeah please we don't need to do it all over again quick who do you want i like Parker Washington. I like Jacoby Myers as players. This is as players. I like Travis Hunter. I like Britton Strange. I might like Brian Thomas as a player.

24:02Jason Moore:Brian Thomas and Parker Washington are going very near each other in the drafts. You're not going to really have the opportunity. Basically when you're on the clock, you're going to be choosing one of those two players. And who are you choosing? I'm getting closer to Parker by the day. I feel like I am too I'm getting closer to Parker by the day I don't know who brought it up and if I could remember I would shout you out but somebody brought up the fact that Parker Washington in this offense is going so significantly behind Luther Burden in the Chicago offense but the situations for them are very similar the production for Parker Washington was there over a long period of time last year

24:43Andy Holloway:after the bye week it was very solid and the slot position for Liam Cohen has been a fantasy football dominator. And so I just wonder if that discussion is worthwhile. Like Luther Burden has all the excitement and the hype in the world. And here's a team that went 13 and four. And because he doesn't have the draft capital or name recognition, he may just be a steal. Yeah. You don't have any of the recognition and you're going into year four. So that's where the difference is of like, you if someone was going to turn into a boat i would expect it to be a wide receiver they're happening before they're going into your loser burden year two correct yeah uh between of the jacksonville guys i think i still lean brian thomas it's not a strong lean it's like a soft Yeah, and it was just of the...

25:41Andy Holloway:Barely on his side of the field. If, when I evaluate the situation, it's like, if one guy is going to turn into the difference maker and not just the three of them all kind of hot swapping who's going to be the star of the day, I think it's Thomas. But again, this isn't like... I'm not demanding Brian Thomas get onto my roster. All right, let's take a break and get into the very different Houston Texans.

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27:46All right, Houston, 12-5 last year, 7-5-1 score games. They won their last nine games. Their projected win total, I didn't get to that for Jacksonville. Let me throw that out there really quickly. I think I missed it. It was 7.5 going into last year. They won 13. It's 9.5 this year, which is the same number that we have for Houston. 9.5 wins. Houston's strength of schedule, according to Warren Sharpe, seventh most difficult schedule for 2026. They won a lot of games for an offense that was 19th in yards per game, 13th in points per game. They were a terrible red zone offense. So if you want to know why you just kind of didn't enjoy watching the game very much, it wasn't that – I don't think any of us would say, oh, Houston, they were the worst offense in all of football.

28:35And the numbers don't bear that out either.

28:37Mike Wright:It was that it was – when it was time for it to matter, they just looked inept at times.

28:42Jason Moore:And then they went out and got a guy who can actually run in the red zone and score touchdowns because they did not have that. No, Woody Marks had to carry a lot of the load last year.

28:53Andy Holloway:this was a defense like it wasn't the plan it's just yeah they kind of had a guy that they really

29:00Jason Moore:liked they yeah they did and joe mixon and he just vanished that there and it wasn't all woody marks's fault and which is why it might not just work for david montgomery their their offensive line was dead last and run block win percentage last year so this is it's one thing to want to do the running of the football well it's another thing to be capable of doing it within your offense and having a threat in your passing game that keeps the defense honest enough to let David Montgomery go and have success. But from a game script perspective and from how we like to draft running backs, this is a team that has a great defense that will be leading or close in a ton of games that taking the ball out of a quarterback's hands like CJ Stroud seems like a

29:46Mike Wright:prudent decision when you have a lead late in the game and you have a running back that is proven in Detroit that when there were those situations and you had a big lead he could salt the clock away so again I find myself inching closer and closer into this being a more impactful year for David Montgomery than I think some people believe not me yeah Jason's all in I've been all in since

30:11Jason Moore:the acquisition was made I mean you saw this team do this a couple years ago grabbing an older inefficient Joe Mixon who is what he was best at was handling a large workload being a veteran who is in the right spot at the right time always falling for getting what he can and that's what David Montgomery is they went out they traded for him they signed him they extended him and he's going to get all the workload this is a team that I think they won their final nine games or something crazy like that as soon as CJ Stroud went down to injury and missed three games they started winning but this is a team that will be in the lead a lot with that defense and so I also think David Montgomery is a good pass catcher I view him as a three down back my projection for him is that he will carry a lion's share of this backfield

31:04Andy Holloway:yeah I don't disagree with any of those things It's the – he's 29 years old. He's changing teams. It has been quite some time. I mean, it's been since 2022 where we've seen him be, you know, like a true featured player, you know, splitting time with Gibbs. Even the carry count in 2023. It says less tread on the tires, Mike. Yeah. You can argue that, except we're going into year nine. He's 29 years old, so he is the exact profile that I generally bet against. I can see how it goes right. But when I'm in mock drafts, I haven't been able to get Montgomery on my team. Jason and I will target him.

32:01Jason Moore:Yeah, we will target him, but I will say that it's a different archetype. there's a use case where Tootin is the better option. If you said, who was a breakout top five running back? I don't think David Montgomery is going to be that. He doesn't have the explosiveness to do that. He's going to be a volume guy. If Tootin breaks in. 12 touchdowns for David Montgomery is not unreasonable at all. I don't think it's unreasonable.

32:25Andy Holloway:I think that that's possible. I don't know that that puts you in the top five. No, he had 13 and 1 ,000 in 2023, and he was the running back 13. I liked it well yeah and half the work right well yeah half the opportunities I mean he'd started he had a ton of 200 probably yeah I mean Woody Marks is not going to be a factor they're already talking about him in special teams he'll he'll spell David Montgomery here and there I just think it's interesting because I like it when other people are out and so we're not going to agree because that's the principle here the principle is sometimes you pick players that have a good case against them and and that's it I liked it as yards per carry haven't gone down They went up last year from the year before.

33:03I like that he's done the double-digit touchdown thing, that he's been pretty resilient.

33:07Andy Holloway:His carries went down. His efficiency went up. There you go. He is – like I think Montgomery is still a fine player. It's just if they really use him as a three-down running back, how long? How long can he keep that up? Can he make it to – can he give you 14 quality games? Yeah, I think he can. I think he's built for it. Of all the players that could, I think he's the one that can do it. I mean, I think it's a Nick Chubb-esque type of. Nick Chubb was part of the plan for the Texans. Not last year's Nick Chubb. So when you're like, yeah, well, it worked for Mixon. Didn't work for Nicholas Chubb.

33:46Andy Holloway:Well, Chubb was coming back off of the injury. Yeah, Chubb had already been back. The injury. That's why Cleveland didn't bring him back. Montgomery freaks me out. Yeah, and that's why David Montgomery is going as the RB26 in the sixth round and bashal tootons is the rb 22 nico collins he's just there still he's very good great and very

34:08Jason Moore:good wish he was on a team with a bad defense that would be awesome yeah he's going to be capped by just total opportunities provided by a quarterback that has been you know we made a lot out of aaron rogers being 14 fancy points a game well cj stroud after his amazing rookie year 13 fancy points a game 14.9 last year he still got a completion percentage up in the mid 60s but three top 12 finishes in each of the last two years you don't get prolific man weeks from him you're probably going to get more top 12 finishes from rogers having a special

34:43Mike Wright:week yeah than cj stroud who just seems kind of like a game manager at this point and that's probably what the team needs the most is for him to take less chances absolutely i mean you look

34:53Jason Moore:down the stretch they won nine games in a row they won with 16 points 23 points 20 points 20 points 40 thanks cardinals because anybody can score 40 against the cardinals but like they were winning with with so few points where and and especially with montgomery here where when they get in the red zone they can actually maybe score on the ground this is it caps the wide receiver upside but nico collins can win any week you look back last year he had so many top 10 weekly performances granted two of them came in the three games with davis mills but at least at least you know if something happens with stroud mills you know is a capable backup do you care about any other wide receivers jayden higgins jaylen noel tank dell xavier hudginson i want to care about jayden higgins i want to care about tank dell i i do care about tank dell the man i think mike's odds of caring about him in fantasy are much higher than yours i'm sorry i agree jayden higgins is interesting but this team just doesn't have the passing volume i think on a weekly basis uh what what i saw to provide what i saw from jayden higgins was really good uh he passed the eyeball test to me but because this was a I mean this is like the quintessential defense and don't make mistake veteran win the ball game team not the fantasy adoration this was a team that did not let the rookie have too many snaps you know he was I was so disappointed in this season I really was I was just super bummed I was bummed at the utilization there were opportunities where it was like we thought he was going to get more work and he just wasn't on the field they were they would rather have the veteran, you know, Christian Kirk out there instead of the young, exciting guy who could make mistakes.

36:45Jason Moore:And I'm hopeful, if you want to paint the narrative for how it works for Jaden Higgins, is now that he's not a rookie, he's got the experience, and he's coming in as a vet, maybe they just say, you are on the two on the outside. You're going to play 85-plus percent of snaps. So they are favored in six of the first seven games. They have an opening matchup against Buffalo, then their favorite against Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Dallas, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and the Giants. That's a pretty juicy schedule when you've got Cincinnati, Dallas, Tennessee in your first five weeks. That's a very interesting start.

37:23Yeah, like from a Niko. Niko's had seasons where he's been the number one wide receiver like eight weeks, nine weeks into the year. that does maybe, like if you're between two guys that are both really good, please look at that early season schedule a little bit. Sure. Not that it will repeat exactly. So hypothetically then, let's say Jaden Higgins makes a true second-year leap,

37:48Andy Holloway:which, I mean, he's a second-round pick. He's got size. He's got speed. Can he turn things around for Stroud? we're very negative on Stroud is there any path I don't think so where Higgins takes that step and changes the offense

38:08Jason Moore:I don't think so we talked about this with the Bengals let's say the Bengals defense got way better and they start kind of you know slowing teams down and they're not getting scored on a ton they're still going to keep like that identity of that team would keep the foot on the throat air it out Burrow would just keep airing it out I believe that the makeup of this team and franchise and coaching staff, if they have a lead, they're going to be running it out. They're not going to be doing that with Chase Brown. That's what they want to do if things go well. I kind of see Mike's point, though, because we saw – I mean, this is still a good team.

38:46Ever since their head coach arrived, they've won 10 or more games, and they've had a defense that has been respectable. It wasn't as elite, but it was respectable. we didn't give enough credit to what they lost two years ago for stroud in tank well it wasn't just tank they literally it was like nico nico got hurt too and and and he didn't have anybody else to throw to i'm just saying that first year two of stroud in the year two of stroud that first year with stroud you had tank dale and nico collins and i think they had robert woods and i'm not sure if it was robert woods that year or not i think it was check um i'm just saying he did have a a number of weapons that season that were yeah tankdale was there they have woods that year so i i just think it's interesting to bring up mike because we don't ever talk about strata in the positive light but you know that was a tough season he lost everybody and we all we all made

39:43Andy Holloway:him fall on the sword there were some explanations for year two and then yeah maybe year three was just like, hey, we don't have – we have Dalton Schultz here who – I mean, Dalton Schultz continues to be the second highest target earner for the Texans. That seems suboptimal for an offense to thrive. You don't want him to be your second target. And it's important to bring up because we're saying Houston's got this elite defense so they're not going to utilize the offense that much. We don't say that about Denver, who has an elite defense. We don't say that about Philadelphia and their potential on offense.

40:17We don't say that about, you know, some of these other teams. Seattle, you know, they have a great defense. They still had prolific offensive opportunities. I think in this NFL, you just have to be able to do that if, you know,

40:30Mike Wright:if you've got the personnel to do it. So if Higgins became a true wide receiver too, maybe that could happen.

40:35Andy Holloway:I don't know. We'll just, we'll leave a light on. You want to talk about the Colts? Let's go. All right. The Indianapolis Colts last year finished 8-9 improbably because of how incredible. They were the number one seed in the AFC in 8-2. So they didn't win again after their bye week. Their projected win total before the year was 7.5, and they got to 8, so there you go. Daniel Jones' injury was in week 14 after they had lost two very close games to Kansas City and Houston. They were 3-7 in one-score games. It certainly didn't help that they had lost their quarterback. I mean, they lost, what, a one-score game against Seattle the week after losing Daniel Jones.

41:17Mike Wright:Kept that game close, right? With Rivers. That was a Philip Rivers game. Yeah. So, yeah, I think it's a team that we're not sure how to feel about because we don't know if Daniel Jones will be the same guy because he wasn't that good previously. So you got an eight-game run of Daniel Jones being elite, making Indianapolis look like geniuses.

41:40Jason Moore:What I really like is two things. One, in the 12 starts that he had, Daniel Jones, when he was a giant, was a prolific mobile quarterback. He was a runner. He would go out there and run for 500, 600 yards, and he was on pace through the first 12 games to only run for 200 yards. He was where he was succeeding was in the passing game. He was really electric with Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman and all that. And then you combine that with the fact that he is recovering seemingly very well from this Achilles injury. He's, you know, been at practice. He's participated in everything. and so you know it's like him being back I'm not saying this for Daniel Jones but I am saying it for the Colts for Jonathan Taylor because Jonathan Taylor when Daniel Jones was removed and they didn't really have a anything to threaten deep and you could just I mean if I was playing against the Colts with Philip Rivers I put everybody at the line and just stopped Johnny Taylor that's what they tried to do and did I think with Daniel Jones back there I am a little bit more optimistic that will get not necessarily the 30 points per game that they were averaging with the Colts in the beginning because it was also magical, but a good offense.

42:56Jason Moore:And I do think the way I look at the Colts coming into this year, good offense. Well, if you believe, I think I'm going to put a situation out there and you tell me if you are going to push back against it. If you think they're going to have a good offense, then you like Alec Pierce because you believe in Daniel Jones. And Michael Pittman was a target hog that is gone. And Alec Pierce got a big paycheck and was very good. So I think if you think their offense is going to be good, and Daniel Jones is good, I feel like you have to believe that Alec Pierce is going to be a massive producer for the offense.

43:24You cannot live and die on Tyler Warren alone in the passing game.

43:28Jason Moore:So I think Alec Pierce is going to be very good. I don't necessarily think Alec Pierce is going to be very good for fantasy football simply because it depends on the role. If he's the possession receiver, then absolutely Alec Pierce is going to dominate, probably be one of the best picks in the entire draft because people aren't drafting him high. He got paid like a number one wide receiver and could dominate. The difference here is I think he's going to stay in the role he was in that he thrived at, which is stretch the field, catch deep bombs. The team has already come out and said that's not the case.

44:00Jason Moore:They've also come out and said Josh Downs was going to take over the Michael Pittman role. I mean, they say a lot of things. They said he'd be more involved. They didn't say he was taking over the Michael Pittman role. They said they would give him more outside routes than he's ever had before. but Alec Pierce is literally they've come out and said like he understands he's going to be handling way more targets in the offense I just don't I don't think you can make a more I think it's less compelling to say Pierce succeeds than it is to say Downs and miscellaneous and Tyler Warren it's those two guys that's not enough that's just not enough to have a prolific year at all the way that I look at this offense the way that I look at this offense it reminds me so much of the old Raiders where it was Darren Waller along with Hunter Henry and then they had a speedster outside I don't think you meant Hunter Henry or Hunter Renfro Renfro and so Renfro is like the Josh Downs Darren Waller is like the Tyler Warren and I can't remember the name it was before Tucker right I think in this situation it was very Alec Pierce and they were really good.

45:13In that situation, you just made Daniel Jones Derek Carr's production. And that's what I mean. It's not enough. Because Derek Carr wasn't enough with that offense. That's all my point is. Without Alec Pierce being prolific, you will get Derek Carr out of Daniel Jones. And if you want to make that argument, that's fine. But that was the year... Renfro's much better than Josh Downs.

45:33Jason Moore:Yeah, I'm just saying. That was the year Hunter Renfro was very good in fantasy. Darren Waller was very good in fantasy. Yeah, Renfro was a one. and that was still Derek Carr. Yeah. But I'm talking about whether Daniel Jones is good for you, good for the team. You think Daniel Jones being back, you're saying he's irrelevant. Daniel Jones is irrelevant? Yes. I think Daniel Jones is. Because he wasn't last year. I mean, he was like a very. That's what I was saying. I don't necessarily think. Coming off the Achilles, I don't look at Daniel Jones as someone I'm targeting in fantasy football, but I think he's going to help the offense enough, open up things for for the running game for jonathan taylor he was on pace for 4400 yards and 28 touchdowns last year daniel jones was with only six picks 516 passing attempt pace 71 completion percentage like you said he was a pocket passer which to me like that takes away

46:26Andy Holloway:the concern about the achilles quite a bit i struggled with the just the contract for alec Pierce of cause GM's teams do stupid crap all the time, all the time. If you paid Alec Pierce, 84 million in guaranteed money, it's a four year, $114 million contract fits in 84 is guaranteed. If you paid him that money to just stretch the field and be what he was last year, you have made an egregious mistake with your resources. I don't know how Pierce was great at it. but being great at that, like what Pierce was doing, that's not$114 million. It's also not what he did every week of the season. He had high-volume target weeks during the season.

47:16He had a 13-target week and a 10-target week and an 8-target week. I'm telling you, if he is a deep threat on this team, I will eat my shorts.

47:25Andy Holloway:It is an impossibility. I have him ranked closer to you, Andy. I'm more on the side of they can't be that stupid, right?

47:33Mike Wright:No, they're not. And by the way, this was... This is the team that brought Jeff Saturday in.

47:39Andy Holloway:He didn't drop the ball. And Phillip Rivers last year, both of which I thought were real stupid. Uh-oh. Well... Now I'm really... I'm in a glass case of emotion. If Alec Pierce receives the target levels that you're talking about as some sort of deep threat to run the defense off so you can throw it to Josh Downs, I will be... They will be a terrible football team. That will be my contention, at least. Josh Downs is going to have way more opportunity we don't know if he can succeed on the outside because he's basically never done it he should have more opportunity there could be opportunity for other guys to step up why in the world am I forgetting his name their third wide receiver who actually has flashed in the past whose name is escaping me Kyle I like to think of Nick Westbrook Ashton Doolin I was like there's no way he's talking about Ashton Doolin I am absolutely talking about Ashton Doolin we should move on He flashed in the past.

48:33Andy Holloway:Flashed in Doolin. No, I don't know what that means. You said he flashed. Oh, you're saying his name is Flashed in Doolin. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, okay. Yeah, that's great. Come on, keep on. I got you.

48:47Mike Wright:Self-boo? I got you, he says, as he hits his own boo. I mean, I guess sometimes you can say something and it doesn't hit. Yeah. And you just got to take responsibility. Just give it some time. responsibility but Tyler Warren we're all excited about the draft costs of Tyler Warren very late fifth round pick Josh Downs costs you nothing to take a shot on it and Alec Pierce costs you nothing to take a shot on him so when you talk about value right now there's a lot of value there yeah it's I mean John the Taylors were the discussion yes he is because he's vacillated between being the best running back in all of football and kind of sometimes not that good

49:21Andy Holloway:And he is, ADP-wise, the running back three. People are betting on... You better be right. That's what that draft stock says.

49:30Jason Moore:I mean, if you don't remember, last year, before Daniel Jones went down, Jonathan Taylor wasn't good. He was the best. He was better than Christian McCaffrey. He was on pace for... He was carrying Jason's team. No, I'm bad. I thought he was carrying everyone's team. Yeah, we were all on his shoulders. And we were not like a backpack. We were full chicken. We were up high.

49:53Mike Wright:Your team in particular would, like, everyone on your team would struggle. It didn't matter because you had Jonathan Taylor.

49:58Jason Moore:I mean, he was the true workhorse. That's why, like, Daniel Jones was really good last year, but he wasn't that consistent for fantasy. He wasn't – this was Jonathan Taylor's team. Jonathan Taylor is the fantasy star here, and obviously people are drafting him as such. Do you buy into that spot, Jay? Do you buy into RB3? I know people are. do you believe that that's where you'd want to take him i do it's a vote for the colts because

50:24Mike Wright:when the colts succeed when the colts succeed he succeeds yeah i just do you believe that the colts are better team than houston or jacksonville i i think his him being the running back three is

50:39Andy Holloway:it's it scared me off that i like i haven't i didn't crush him in the rankings i just i have him now where i don't know if i'm gonna take the running back three i think he is i i think he's more fragile than the the current thought process about him is fragile from a fantasy yes not i'm not talking about his body which has been fragile i'm talking about the the way it goes wrong so yeah the um i'm just like looking man the colts have you seen their their records in the last five years nine and eight nine and eight eight nine eight and nine and a four and twelve season oh impressive they've just been right on the edge and so what's their projected win total that i

51:21Mike Wright:just said did i bring it up why don't you just tell me uh eight and a half so we got you got nine and a half nine and a half eight and a half i'm really curious how we're going to sort these oh i i think if the i think if they lose if they lose 10 games i think you're unhappy with taylor this year yeah i think if they lose 10 i said if they lose 10 i said if they go 7 and 10 or something or worse which i mean eight and a half win total seven wins is in within the i think it is a little bit more nerve-wracking there um but we'll see i mean they're a super interesting team

51:56Andy Holloway:we just had is there a chance of you know with the vacated targets do we see an uptick in taylor's receptions because he's good at it we've been frustrated when they haven't thrown in the ball

52:10Jason Moore:more we bring that up all the time in the past where you've got a large portion of vacated targets it often goes to the running back position the fact that daniel jones is coming off an achilles maybe a little less mobile more checkdowns it certainly couldn't hurt yeah it taylor's taylor is only difficult because he's going as the three um okay we'll take a break and we get to talk about one more team that's got a lot to battle against in this division.

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55:20Jason Moore:Before we get to the Titans, I do what would just because I'm looking at this fresh. The schedule for Indianapolis to start is worth bringing up because Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston, three really good defenses. And then at Washington, at Pittsburgh. Yeah. So you're five underdogs. Five underdogs to start, but I could easily see this team that I think is good, I think is going to be a good offense, getting off to a really slow start. And if that happens, and you are drafting Jonathan Taylor at number three it could be kind of the inverse of last year where maybe you're really happy or disappointed you draft him but then trade for him because it gets brighter yeah and that's they'll have no games against jacksonville yet so there'll be two more against jacksonville one more against houston all right man doesn't it feel like at any moment that shane steichen was gonna get fired two years ago yes yes and then last year it was like you're amazing and then it It seemed like he almost got fired again at the end of the year.

56:22Very much. They feel like a team that could go, they could have an amazing season again or be a complete bust. Let's talk about the Titans, 3-14. Their projected win total last year, 5.5. This year, guys, it's way up, 6.5. All right, it's not way up. That was untrue. Hey. It is up.

56:41Andy Holloway:It's going up. Brian Dable, new offensive coordinator. Robert Sala, new head coach. we invested in the draft carnell tate fourth pick overall seems like he is the real deal they certainly needed one calvin ridley wasn't it i o manor dk those guys were you know those are role players on this offense not focal points of the offense they didn't do anything at the running back position i mean they invested a fifth round pick on nicholas singleton but okay we didn't go out and get it we thought that they were in play for Jeremiah Love.

57:16Jason Moore:Yeah, I like Nicholas Singleton. I think he does what is good for fantasy football, the incoming rookie. He doesn't have electric film, but he has a ton of touchdowns in college, a ton of pass catching, but he's a fifth rounder. And Tony Pollard has literally just kept scoring. He's been decent. Tony Pollard. He's been... Tony. You just get in it. He's like in his James Conner face for the Titans that Conner did for the Cardinals where you're tried and true and reliable. He's going to be the lead guy. The question is, is it a good enough offense to matter? I mean, last year they were 30th in points per game, 31st in yards per game, but don't worry, their defense sucked as well.

57:56Four straight years with 1 ,000 rushing yards. They played the toughest schedule in the NFL last year. So if you want to try to find two and five in one-score games, if you want to try to find a silver lining in a rookie season, and that was a struggle, you can say Cam Ward played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL, and he got better over the back half of the year. If you want to turn it that direction. I just tweeted something out. I just tweeted all of his red zone pass attempts. He was the number one in the NFL in completion percentage above expectation in the red zone of all quarterbacks.

58:32Andy Holloway:Well, it's because they expected him to complete none of the passes but the receivers. Like, holy crap, he did it again.

58:39Jason Moore:He's 100 % over expectation.

58:43Mike Wright:I guess you can nerf the stat that way if you want to. But look, my optimism around this team is there. I do believe that they have the core that will take them into the future as a winning football team, but I don't think it's a one-year process. I think Houston and Jacksonville are far, far better football teams. But I could see a world where they're competing for a third spot in this division, and I can see a world where we're actually happy in fantasy for once with Carnell Tate's involvement in this offense. so to me that's where the real value lies it's it's not a bunch of names like jacksonville we went through seven eight nine names in jacksonville and we didn't even talk about britain strange who really probably should have been brought up as a sleeper sleeper sure tied in here where does this discussion begin and end and i think it's just carnell tate that's i was gonna ask so you're

59:33Andy Holloway:gonna leave wandale out of this like you don't have to well i'm saying they they gave him the shmani yeah but he he had as much work as a human can get and previous seasons and he still was

59:45Jason Moore:just okay maybe thousand yard receiver last year he was the wide receiver 19 in fantasy last year and it's shocking to remember that like you yeah no i'm not and it was with brian dayball which is nice but i will say that if if they draft carnell tate he had a d in consistency 35 percent of the time he mattered and if if they draft carnell tate and don't make carnell tate the one that's absurd and wrong and uh wandale i think is a good two but for fantasy maybe he helps the titans i i have a hard time thinking that wandale is going to be very relevant for how many targets did you guys project him for because we have our projections i mean because he had 140 last year

1:00:30Andy Holloway:and look two years ago too i know 140 uh he's playing in tennessee now what do you what do you have him at i am down for 115 okay i thought you were gonna say 50 it's like whoa michael so i have him 112 yeah that's just hard for me to get him to a point where he's in the top 30 yeah i mean i like the player and i like him for cam ward a lot like i like cam ward has a potential

1:00:55Jason Moore:to have a step forward this year big time yeah he does thanks to carnell tate and wando carnell tate is pretty much the only player that i want like i if i leave a draft and i have carnell tate i'm excited if i leave a draft and i have tony pollard i go i had to do it you know it's like

1:01:16Andy Holloway:i was in a position where i just had to take him tony pollard pick is so funny it four years of a thousand yards it speaks to like this is a quality player the we had the you know two years ago oh we're gonna we're gonna timeshare the running backs and then i was like oh no well it actually it's just pollard and you're like this year or two years ago i'm sorry and then last year the way we're gonna do it again but they did you know the first two the first 12 games pollard he's averaging around you know 15 touches per game and not producing at all but then the final five games he he turned into a workhorse 20 touches per game up to 15 fantasy points so i bring that up as if if dable workhorses tony pollard it's gonna go from that pick that you just you you regret it's the moment you do it vegetables mike through week and then week one happens if all of a sudden tony pollard's getting you know 18 or more opportunities you're going to be thrilled that he's on your team yeah to me tony pollard's 29 he's not getting better he's getting worse as a player so he's fantasy vegetables to me his last like david montgomery his last two years running back 22 23 he said 29 like it's a bad thing i think the big difference I'm saying that you don't have upside in the player.

1:02:44So what situation do you care about? I care about 10, 15 wins, not four. That's all I'm saying. Like Pollard was, he played 17 full weeks last year, 283 opportunities and finished as a running back 23. And that's what you're going to be in the range of. Like if it all goes well, you got RB23. That's my worry about Pollard.

1:03:04Jason Moore:Yeah, it's just touchdowns and the offense. I mean, he had 1 ,000 yards and he played every game and all that, but he had five touchdowns. And you just can't be very fantasy relevant. No, and we always love the 1 ,000-yard marker. That's 58 yards a game. I mean, it's fine, but it's not going to make a big difference. Carnell Tate, Jason, you're the highest. You have him ranked at wide receiver at 26. I have him at 27. Mike at 33. We all projected him for seven touchdowns. I just moved him up, guys, live. Did you? I did. A live adjustment to Carnell Tate? Yep.

1:03:36Andy Holloway:I gave him a couple more points on the target percentage. Was it the fact that Cam Ward was the number one ranked quarterback completion percentage over expectation in the red zone? Was that what talked you into it? No, it was more like, he's got to have way more targets than Wandale. Come on, what are we doing here? Okay, yeah. If the Titans end up not doing that, again, egregious mistake. And by the way, Tajay Spears, they still talk about him in the committee with the rest of this team. I don't know what we think about him at this point. I think he's fine.

1:04:07Jason Moore:He's one of those, I think he is best utilized in small doses, be a high efficiency, low volume NFL player, which makes him irrelevant for fantasy. You know, if one of these backs ends up having a really, really good year, it's probably Pollard. Then I think it's probably Singleton after that before Spears. Yeah, I think part of last year's Pollard or the Pollard fatigue in Tennessee is like Spears also didn't play the first four weeks. and we're like, oh, Pollard's the dude, and then he just did nothing for the first four weeks.

1:04:39Andy Holloway:It wasn't good touches. So I guess we have to decide who was going to win the division, and I've been talking, so I need you to talk so I can think about it for a second. Well, I need to think about that because I was – You guys didn't jot down your – I've already got – I've got mine. I was busy with my Wandale arguments.

1:04:53Jason Moore:I've got mine. I think that it is – I mean, this is a difficult division because, obviously, Houston, Jacksonville, Indy, they're going to play each other, and how you win those games really affects. We were looking at the stats last year of how we picked them, and as soon as you get the division winner wrong, all the dominoes fall exactly. So get the division winner right. I believe the division winner will be Houston. Do you want to give your other four teams? Sure. No, I will give my other three teams. I have Houston winning. I go Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee. Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indy.

1:05:31oh putting india at the bottom get wrecked i have the same as jason i want to be

1:05:38Andy Holloway:spicy and put the colts above the jags but i don't have the stones to do it

1:05:44Mike Wright:okay you don't saturday the afc east will be breaking down that division and then the afc west on tuesday the next thursday we'll get into another mock draft episode i think we're gonna do a 10-man mock so that'll be fun uh who knows you better tune in and find out yeah we got three shows a week right now five starting in august the ultimate draft kit available at ultimatedraftkit.com and a live show in august and a live show at the end of august august 28th at the van buren in phoenix if you want to go to ballerslive.com you can learn more about that we would love to see you there we have a lot of special things planned for the live show and it's just a great chance to connect before the season kicks off and um i can put away one more

1:06:25Andy Holloway:year of rebuilding in our dynasty league just just read more to go closer to your 2028 to go

1:06:31Mike Wright:picks all right that'll do it thank you for joining us a lot of lively debates on today's show share your opinions with us in the comments on twitter at the ff ballers we'll catch you next well we'll catch you saturday goodbye

1:06:48Jason Moore:thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

1:07:22Andy Holloway:On September 25th. Me, me, me! No one's coming for us. It's just you and me, boy. 58 miles. Heart of the Beast is the must-see adventure of the year. An incredible story of survival. I got you. One of the most extraordinary on-screen bonds you'll ever see. Odie, the greatest dog to ever walk the earth. Brad Pitt. I'll get you home. Heart of the Beast. Pauline Theater, September 25th. Rated PG-13. Maybe inappropriate for children under 13.