Fantasy Football - AFC South Breakdown + Pessimistic Hope - Podcast for 7/8

13:03Mike Wright:5.4 a carry and 4.4 a carry in his two years so to me that's some role well my point is last year

13:09Jason Moore:he was so irrelevant I mean 140 total opportunities and that was with that was with he's irrelevant

13:15Mike Wright:for fantasy. I thought you were saying in the committee impacting other players, if you take 100-plus opportunities on the ground, you're going to impact the other guys.

13:24Jason Moore:My point is he could only get that many opportunities last year with no competition there for him. Now with Dobbins and R.J. Harvey, I think those two guys will run clearly ahead, and McLaughlin will have much less opportunity this coming season than he had last year. That's the way that I view this back. We know it's going to be a committee. Sean Payton is always preferred a committee approach but there's also been a lot of fantasy value in his committees

13:50Mike Wright:in that case we've talked about the chargers and we've talked about you know their committee situation now harvey is at least possibly in that type of a situation where judkins in a on a cleveland team that doesn't project to win a lot of games seems to be everything how do you look at Hampton versus Harvey Hampton versus Harvey I mean

14:16Jason Moore:Amarian Hampton's just a better player there's a reason he was the first round draft pick he has more competition but he is the he is just a an elite prospect in my opinion and in the opinion of the Chargers since they spent their first round pick on yeah I mean in Henderson in New

14:34Mike Wright:england will have ramondre to deal with so there will be a lot of sifting through depth charts and sometimes it takes weeks sometimes it takes a bit of time you normally have huge contributions from

14:45Andy Holloway:rookies in fantasy but that doesn't mean it's from week one right it's jk dobbins like if this is we'll see if this continues to be the the rhetoric out of denver like let's let training camp open and see there but i mean jk dobbins andy you said free you know it's like yeah does he can he even possibly climb into a position in adp where it is costing you anything and you're having tremendous

15:11Mike Wright:upside if they come out and say he's the starter it's gonna ruin it but uh yeah right now he's very interesting we just need to get into training camp and stay water and and change opinions and projections as they as they come we had news of Terry McLaurin uh-oh which is uh you know continuing the same refrain not happy with where things are with an extension for Terry McLaurin makes sense that he would want to cash in on a prolific year best year double digit touchdown year also makes sense that Washington might not want to pay him like Jamar Chase oh yeah you can't

15:49Jason Moore:pay McLaurin like Jamar Chase uh we we expect them to get a deal done I don't he's not going to pull a Trey Hendrickson and sit out games and lose money if they don't get a deal so I don't worry about this um now if he misses camp you know there's maybe you have a little bit of the fears of the hammy you know people that hold out and come in late as wide receivers sometimes that

16:11Andy Holloway:pops up 29 I believe so he is almost 30 that's the number closest to 30 I'm just saying you're About 29.8. So, like, he will be turning 30 pretty soon.

16:23Mike Wright:He'll be 30 any minute now. But that's tough to give a long contract to a player in that situation. So maybe you see them settle for a more one, two-year deal or move money around. We were talking about it in the context of Cortland Sutton in Denver as well, who wants a contract. Maybe those will be very similar. But I think that's the major news to talk about, and we'll keep talking about it as we get into camp and where things end up. we'll take a break and we will jump into the AFC South.

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18:42Mike Wright:All right, it is time to jump into another divisional breakdown.

18:49Mike Wright:Let's get divisional.

18:54Mike Wright:All right, a reminder, this is a general overcast. review of the teams in these divisions how things went last year how things are projected this year what does vegas have in store for the win totals of these teams offseason changes players rookies coaches uh what we believe individually about their upside and potential and and the afc south is a weird division because to me it is like there's no conversations today i believe that will happen that will not be very two-sided very balanced I mean there's no teams that I think don't have pretty big question marks in this division even ones that you know last year the winner was 10 and 7 Houston won the division but it was not the same ride as the year before they

19:39Andy Holloway:were 10 and 7 and an interesting note of no one in the division finished with a positive point differential that's right they had a zero yeah Houston won the division they were at they were just neutral and then everybody else was negative and I like I pay attention to those things because like when you're talking about spotting a team that can actually make a run in the in the playoffs like there was a year I think the Titans made them and there was they were getting a whole bunch of fanfare it's like dude they are they have a like a negative point differential what are you talking about and then they got shellacked uh the the rest of this division is still set up for Houston to take number one but this is a it's these are some weird teams yeah if you had if you had bet on

20:26Mike Wright:houston last year their win total was nine and a half so they beat it hey but it felt like their season was like a failure despite winning the division in a lot of ways they dealt with major injuries cj stroud regressed uh in part due to tremendous tremendous pressure five of their wins was the division yeah well that that and that makes sense i mean tennessee had a negative 149 point differential which is the worst in their entire history as since they moved and became the titans in 99 so no one like you said no one with a positive point differential and you know houston was 18th in points per game 16th in yards per game 235 quarterback pressures uh of cj stroud which was the most in the nfl and so you know i don't know where you guys fall on the excuse making for stroud you know you know right age i i i fall on the mostly i make excuses

21:28Andy Holloway:for cj stroud so you're you're going offensive line bobby slowick yes and and then combined with

21:35Mike Wright:nico collins getting hurt and and digs out for the year and tank dell disappearing and the world's slowest player playing tight end for you. Yeah, I give him... There's two conversations around Stroud. Poor Dolan Schultz. Well, he is the slowest person. He's just living his life, man. He's the slowest person on the planet.

21:57Jason Moore:Every time we watched a game, if Schultz caught the ball, I would just turn to Andy and watch him complain about how the guy is so slow.

22:05Mike Wright:It's cool. He can catch it. I mean, not everyone could do that.

22:10Jason Moore:but you know who you don't call slow Zach Ertz because he just falls down he catches the ball and falls down you have no idea how slow Zach Ertz

22:18Mike Wright:beats Schultz in a 40 that's where I'm going I doubt it but you know CJ Stroud as a fantasy option was a complete failure last year because he was driven up very high in average draft position by a rookie season where people were just you know enchanted it was awesome they were on it it went from a place where they were completely underdogs no one expected anything from them and they run it all the way to the playoffs to a team that was expected to have a really good year and it went the opposite direction because that's what happens

22:52Jason Moore:in the nfl well and they started i believe they started five and one so off to a hot start which means the the reason we're kind of viewing them a little bit more pessimistically is because the second half of last year the majority of last year they were really a 500 team um and whenever they had any kind of real tests they pretty much failed them yeah and and now cj stroud has dropped

23:16Mike Wright:what six rounds in adp after what happened last year so they zero great games last year that'll do it yeah yeah you did not have any fantasy value from him essentially uh stefan diggs is gone Robert Woods is gone. They added Christian Kirk. They added Kyle, the Borgogans' favorite player of all time, Justin Watson. If you don't know who that is, that's all right. You don't need to. They added Nick Chubb as depth at running back and Irv Smith Jr. at tight end, who is faster than Dalton Schultz, even when he's hurt, which is impressive. But what are your expectations for them this year? They were a good defense, and they'll continue to be a good defense.

23:55Mike Wright:And so you wonder about game planning and what the upside is for fantasy football when you have a team that was number six in total yards given up. And, you know, they are replacing their offensive coordinator, which is encouraging because Slowik was awful.

24:09Jason Moore:Yeah, he called. I mean, it was widely documented how much he was calling a run play on second and long, which is about as bad a decision as you can. They'll never see it coming, dude. You're going to get four yards. And that failed a lot. I lean with you, Andy, that I find myself accepting the excuses more for Stroud. I don't think Stroud is a bad quarterback. I think he's going to continue developing and be a very, very good quarterback going forward. So that's where you have to – if that ends up being true, then we'll look back at last season and those excuses will be right. If that is true, that means that some of the best value to be had in fantasy football is on this team with the two rookies that they brought in.

24:51Jason Moore:because the opportunity there for someone to really step forward as the wide receiver two Jaden Higgins and Jalen Knoll yes Jaden Higgins and Jalen Knoll the second round and third round pick respectively of this year's draft those guys are not being drafted high enough I think currently with their average draft position and Stroud has had I mean Tank Dell was a fantasy superstar his rookie year with um with Stroud and that was while Nico Collins was great Stefan Diggs looked really good and was good for fantasy before he went down to injury so you've got Nico as the one and then you don't know exactly what's going on as the number two but the opportunity is 100 % there for someone to step up and be very important for fantasy and there is not really a highly drafted wide receiver two on this team so I love Jaden Higgins

25:41Mike Wright:and spoiler alert, he's a sleeper in our UDK. I completely agree with you. Christian Kirk is a Band-Aid type of player at this juncture of his career who can go out there and give you a number of snaps and contribute, but not with the ceiling that you'd hope for. And Higgins is a player that I think is a second-round pick. He's explosive. He's large.

26:04Andy Holloway:I'm a big fan of Higgins.

26:06Mike Wright:I think that's where the value is. I agree.

26:07Andy Holloway:I think he is worth taking a shot on the fact that the end of season rank for their offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus, they had him at 29. Now, going into this year, friends of the show, Sharp Football, their current projections for that Houston offensive line is dead last. Oh, they got rid of... Yeah, they traded away Lenny Maiton-Soul because they're trying to fix things. They didn't want to pay him more money and all those things. But that is – I love Nico Collins. I think that he is an elite guy. Things could break the right way where Nico finishes as the wide receiver one at the end of the season.

26:48Andy Holloway:I think he's that good in the connection with Stroud. And there's chances to take here. But the offensive line is very, very scary for me for secondary options.

27:00Mike Wright:That leads us into a good discussion around what I think one of the biggest questions about this team is, is Joe Mixon. Does he have what it takes to volume his way back into a top 12 running back in spite of the fact the offensive line projects to be a work in progress is the most generous way to put it. He was the fourth most in red zone touches last year despite missing three games. That was awesome. He was one of the best running backs the first 11 weeks of the season, but you have offensive line issues. So, Jay, how do you weigh in?

27:31Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean they had offensive line issues last year. I do agree it's worse this year than it was last year, but through the first 11 weeks last year, Joe Mixon was the running back one. He's not being drafted in a spot where, okay, if he takes a step back, you're not really like holding the bag.

27:46Andy Holloway:He's in the back of the fourth right now at running back 17.

27:48Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, when we've done our live drafts, we're usually seeing him go off in the fifth round. And at that point, I feel like he is a value. I don't worry too much about Nick Chubb, who's turning 30 this year, coming off of an injury. and I do think Nick Chubb helps keep Joe Mixon from rising because there are people that are very worried about it.

28:09Andy Holloway:That's the – it's – do you have any belief that Nick Chubb can return to any sort of form? I mean, this is – he's now multiple years from the devastating injury. What was the one – he broke something in his foot?

28:22Mike Wright:What, your second injury? Yeah, the most recent one. A broken foot, I believe. Foot or ankle.

28:27Andy Holloway:So it's just – does Nick Chubb have anything in the tank to challenge Joe Mixon? because last year Joe Mookson looked great those first. Broken foot, week 15. The first few weeks, but he also didn't have anybody to challenge him. Jay, if you're like, I don't think Nick Chubb can challenge him, I think that makes a huge difference.

28:47Mike Wright:I don't think he can challenge him, but at least Nick Chubb could be somebody that they make the goal line. Yeah, they could make a decision to hand him the ball around the goal line, which would be a problem. That would bother me. I also would feel worse about I know that their ranking is worse than last year but I'd feel way worse about this team's offensive line if they ran the same guys out there as they did last year running different players out when you were already pretty much dead last in the league at least has the possibility that you have improvement one of them is like a great tackle

29:19Jason Moore:yeah you have hope of change but it should be pessimistic hope they don't have a lot of talent there pessimistic hope i've never heard that before that's probably because it's the complete

29:31Mike Wright:opposite of what hope is um uh dalton schultz is slow for their schedule to start the year put the way on three or four uh they start on the road against the rams then tampa then at jacksonville and then tennessee that's it's a little tough to start the year well not the

29:51Jason Moore:jacksonville tennessee part that's where they thrive in division well yeah in on the road

29:56Mike Wright:against jacksonville though yeah maybe maybe uh i don't know you i'm assuming we'd probably pick the rams in tampa to win those first two yeah yeah all right uh we will move on talk about the indianapolis colts it was a bumpy eight and nine season to put it mildly all eight of their wins were one score games.

30:19Andy Holloway:It's an impressive eight and nine season to me. And that makes so much sense. I'm like, how did they get to eight wins? I honestly felt the exact same way.

30:27Jason Moore:Doesn't it seem like they won four or five games last year? Yes.

30:31Mike Wright:Yeah, eight. Yeah, they did not win four or five games for fantasy players. That was one of the challenges. The projected win total was eight and a half. This year it's seven and a half.

30:45Mike Wright:Feels like a very crucial make or break type of year for at least steikin and anthony richardson if he you know one shot to kind of stay a starter or earn a starting job middle of the pack and points per game last year tremendously bad on defense so they they said goodbye to gus bradley shocker

31:07Andy Holloway:you but you love gus bradley as a head coach oh yes of course as a head that guy that was the problem in he needed more responsibility yeah i mean sometimes more is less right but um

31:19Mike Wright:they bring in uh anarumo from cincinnati who's he had wore out his defensive welcome whose team was awful on defense but you know personnel problems for both of these teams it's going to be yeah there's a number of questions i think around indianapolis quarterback is going to be one of the biggest ones and you know what does that really mean to us when it comes to other fantasy players being relevant we have a a prolific rookie tight end a first round top half tyler warren selection and then we've got you know pitman and downs oh man josh downs and then you've got to say hey do you care if it's daniel jones do you care if it's anthony richardson um that's you're gonna get one of those guys like there isn't a third door to open where joe montana walks out monty hall's not offering you a the third door no you don't even have joe flacco waiting in the wings like they did last year so um you know to me those are some of the bigger questions about this team who do you think wins the job uh the injury to anthony richardson currently

32:24Andy Holloway:i we have to wait because they're like i think he'll be ready by training camp does that mean the first day of training camp does that mean a like five days in where daniel Jones is already building up a rapport and they're already focused on that now you have to steal the

32:42Jason Moore:job yeah we'll know ahead of time and and really making that call right now feels foolish the more that you read from beat writers because people around the area are it seems like every week they're very confident that the exact opposite guy is going to be the starter yeah you know a lot more Daniel Jones I have seen more Daniel Jones but then after the Daniel Jones they come and say no Anthony Richardson is probably going to be the starter. And then a little bit more Daniel Jones.

33:09Andy Holloway:If you timestamp it, then you're like, no, look, I told you.

33:12Mike Wright:I'm not sure that, and maybe this is kind of like we talked about last week, but I'm not sure that it's going to impact the draft position of these players very much. It won't. And in that case, we like Josh Downs. I like Josh Downs quite a bit. I think Pittman's still a player that's going to be out there all the time. He's not had a real nose for the end zone in his career, but he can be a PPR guy. It's hard to imagine a world where both of them are good. I think that's why you see a lot of people making the choice. Both of them being great, yeah. When it doesn't feel like it should be, this real dynamic of this guy's the one, that guy's the one.

33:48Mike Wright:I think people are choosing one because they don't think more than one can do anything.

33:52Jason Moore:Yeah, and Josh Downs is the better value in drafts because he's later, he costs you nothing, he's had some explosive ups. He is not later. Yeah, him and Pittman are right next to each other.

34:01Mike Wright:They're five picks apart right now.

34:03Jason Moore:wide receiver 46 and 48 and i know both they're both very late both of you guys are like very very on the josh downs yeah he's better than pitman's side right i think he's a better

34:15Andy Holloway:fantasy player like just his usage i mean the at least the way that the quarterbacks played last year they they preferred josh downs and going to him very frequently yeah i do i do like downs and

34:29Mike Wright:would pick him over Pittman at that spot in the draft. You're also going to have Tyler Warren, who's, guess what, right there, same spot in the draft. So you get to pick one of three Colts or two of three Colts at that point in the draft.

34:42Andy Holloway:So difficult because this is – if you're just coming back to football, Tyler Warren was a first-round tight end selected this year. He is a beast. I love Tyler Warren. But I don't know what to make of drafting a – he's a tight end one right now in current ADP with all of that stuff going on.

35:06Mike Wright:You missed the too hot to handle episode. I did. Is that correct? And I think Jason and I were both very much on the not too hot to handle.

35:12Andy Holloway:Not too hot.

35:13Mike Wright:Not too hot at that place. No, because you're at the very, very bottom. I mean, this is lower than where Bowers went last year. Yeah. And people were passing on Bowers. I think it's the right gamble to take in the ninth round.

35:25Jason Moore:Yeah, there's not other tight ends that are, you know, if you're that late, you're getting a bad tight end. Take a chance at someone that could be special and then stream the position, which you'll do if you don't draft Tyler Warren anyways. So I'm fine with that. The issue here with Tyler Warren is last year this was a team that threw.

35:43Andy Holloway:Like Tyler Warren or Dalton Kincaid.

35:46Mike Wright:Tyler Warren. I think we asked that question. Oh, did you? Yeah, I think that was actually the name that came up.

35:51Andy Holloway:and we both i would go tyler warren because don't kate is he's the next guy up and then you got

35:58Mike Wright:ferguson and tucker craft man some of the indifference around downs and pitman can i mean be an encouragement towards warren i mean warren is going to be the most quarterback friendly for

36:09Jason Moore:two bad quarterbacks warren is what scares me for those wide receivers yeah like last year 71 percent of the targets went to wide receiver for the colts only 15 percent went to the tight end position those are both kind of out of the normal type of numbers for their positions they didn't draft a first round tight end who's a talented pass catcher to not throw him the ball out they saw this hole and they said we've got to we've got to get a tight end who can open up the field for us so that's going to siphon a lot of targets away from probably both downs and and Pittman so I'm I'm not quite as bullish on the the passing game here as I think the the two of you the the second

36:49Mike Wright:question that I think stands out for Indianapolis is how we view Jonathan Taylor and whether we view him as elite or continuing to be an elite option. Some things that stand out about Taylor, it was a prolific end to the season. We've seen the reception numbers decline after a beginning of his career. It seemed like they were going in the right direction, but the last three years has gone down, down, down, under 20 receptions. I don't think adding Tyler Warren is going to help the target totals for jonathan taylor he had the fifth most rushing yards ever over a final three games of the season it was unbelievable to push him towards averaging like what like almost 30 carries a game yeah when you watch those games it literally felt like the team said we don't care what's happening anymore as long as we hand it to jonathan taylor and yet he was also stuffed the most of any running back on third and short last year which is a weird thing that is so weird for so many breakaway runs so do you think elite is the word you'd use with Jonathan Taylor I would I would certainly use the

37:48Jason Moore:word elite now if you're talking fantasy elite he's not tier one for fantasy but this is a running back who should be an overall running back one in fantasy football and you know I think he can be top five in fantasy this year obviously the passing has to be there if it is Daniel Jones I would expect more volume in the passing game yeah than if it is Anthony Richardson obviously Daniel Jones was able to do that with Saquon to a good enough degree where Saquon was very relevant

38:15Andy Holloway:but like but the Saquon numbers went down from Eli oh for sure yeah this is not Eli I mean

38:21Jason Moore:man those those guys who can't move in the pocket yeah give my running back those quarterbacks

38:27Mike Wright:if you uh Jason you you probably have a the ability to look this up pretty quickly though but where was Jonathan Taylor if you just look at where he's where he was in points per game before the three weeks because that was the majority of the fantasy season that was before they gave him 29 32 and 34 carries yeah before the weeks one through 15 points per game where

38:46Jason Moore:did he slot in because i've got before the bye week which is okay yeah one one game different one game different um but he was still awesome he was averaging 13 and a half fantasy points per game 80 rushing yards a game yeah no it was it was uh it was on it was it was just really truly magnificent what he did at the end of last year and if you don't remember you know this this eight win team should have been a nine win team right when jonathan taylor had that breakaway touchdown

39:15Andy Holloway:run and dropped the oh my gosh i forgot all about that ball in the giants game yeah that was yeah

39:22Mike Wright:tennessee new york jacksonville three very good defenses to face to finish the year and i'm not i'm not trying to take that away from the you know from him but for the majority of the season i just wanted to see where it was when there was tumulted quarterback throughout a really difficult year if

39:37Jason Moore:he could play those bad defenses every because he finished at nine with those three i got some good

39:41Andy Holloway:news those three games he was on pace for 2946 rushing he will play a lot of those teams again

39:49Mike Wright:that is true um okay i i feel like we covered the colts pretty well start they start at home back-to-back Miami Denver then Tennessee and Los Angeles on the road and um yeah I mean that there's some other players there Alec Pierce will be involved Adonai Mitchell involved but um those are the main the main guys so we'll take a break come back with two more teams from the south

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41:51Mike Wright:Oh, Jacksonville. 4-13 last year, a season in which they were projected to win eight and a half games. Whoops. They were 4-10 in one-score games. They have a 7-and-a-half win total this year. They have a nice strength of schedule, at least on paper, sixth best. And it's a lot of change, right? There's a tremendous amount of change in what this offense is going to look like new offensive coordinator and head coach Doug Peterson goodbye they were 26th in points per game 25th in yards per game Liam Cohen comes over from Tampa Bay and so I mean horrific on both sides of the football you get to 4 and 13 through really ineptitude on both sides dealt with

42:38Jason Moore:injuries why they drafted a guy for both sides of the football yeah yeah oh yeah they did they

42:44Mike Wright:They are trying to two birds it with Travis Hunter. He's one of the big additions, obviously. No more Evan Ingram, no more Christian Kirk. And you add Travis Hunter and you add a play caller that, you know, is well-respected in Liam Cohen. Do we still have Liam Cohen's Duval? We still got his. Yeah, here we go.

43:07Andy Holloway:Duval. That's pretty close. Oh, man. What a goober.

43:11Mike Wright:I was going to say, are we enough weeks removed from that?

43:14Andy Holloway:never will never be sure that is yeah that is an unlimited time span yeah that's like that's like

43:19Jason Moore:uh playoffs yeah you know that's decades or however long that's infinite yeah this is will

43:26Andy Holloway:wins erase it um i think so it will not erase it but they will look back on it and smile

43:34Mike Wright:so one of the biggest boston fantasy travis etn came from this roster last year one of the biggest surprises and positives brian thomas jr came from this roster last year and we still can't get our heads around what in the world trevor lawrence is as a player but do you first question do you think liam cohen will be a fix-all for this offense when you have brian thomas jr travis

43:56Jason Moore:hunter trevor lawrence with liam cohen i i don't think liam cohen is going to be a fix-all i am excited we we had a quick question earlier this year of like what what team would you wish you could see how they perform and this was my answer because there's a path here where it's a good offense I mean if Trevor Lawrence comes in he's much better than Mac Jones and he adds you know the hopeful greatness of Travis Hunter as a second wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. going into second year and then they've got enough running backs I know ETN sucked but you get him the ball in space he can be a good asset he was the running back three two years ago this could be a good offense I don't personally – that was a long two years for Travis Etienne.

44:42Jason Moore:I mean, no one's had a longer, short period of time than Travis Etienne. But, you know, it could be an exciting offense.

44:53Mike Wright:Are you pessimistically hopeful for Etienne, as you would say? I'm optimistically doubtful.

45:03Mike Wright:Okay, I feel that. I get that. Which one is more positive? More positive. Optimistically doubtful, right?

45:11Andy Holloway:I will have to get back to you. We need the English majors to let us know which one is.

45:16Mike Wright:Almost like these words shouldn't be combined. So, you know, with the question mark, no fix all, Trevor Lawrence questions, can he support more than one target in a way that you're happy? Yes. Can Travis Hunter. I think I saw Travis Hunter's yardage number right now is set around 750.

45:35Jason Moore:that is very very low for happiness and fantasy football like if if he you know if he crushes that and gets to 800 yards you will not be yeah that's more happy and fantasy football yeah i i

45:50Mike Wright:didn't know how you'd react to that positively or negatively or how conservative they were do you remember where marv was marv was a thousand and a thousand yeah yeah so i mean 750 that was like

46:03Andy Holloway:rome dunes was right around that range wasn't he i think he was above that yeah and you don't look

46:09Mike Wright:back at drafting rome like 734 no you're right he was below yeah and yeah you would not have been happy no and you wouldn't i mean he's not gonna score enough touchdowns to where that kind of yardage will make you happy or total receptions to get him that amount of yards will make you happy so yeah you know you need it to be it's just kind of confusing for me if i'm honest i i look at brian thomas jr and how much of a dominator he is and i i'm just trying to figure out what travis

46:34Jason Moore:hunter can contribute i think he could contribute quite a bit you have evan ingram gone uh you you have christian kirk gone there is a very large hole to be filled here they need other pass catchers um you know we were just talking about the same thing with the houston texans where they really need someone to step up at wide receiver too well both of these teams have a rookie that has the opportunity to do that but if you're going to ask me which rookie wide receiver is just a better who's a better wide receiver between Higgins and Travis Hunter oh yeah yeah it's clearly Travis

47:13Mike Wright:Hunter it will be very interesting to see what kind of consistency we get out of Travis Hunter

47:18Jason Moore:yeah especially in the snap count department 700 yards could come with five or six games that you

47:23Mike Wright:would have wanted to start in him in fantasy you know what i mean but it could be a little less

47:27Jason Moore:predictable at least with with trevor lawrence at times he is a very big wild card pick um i hope right now he's in the seventh round wide receiver 35 i am personally fine taking the shot at that point rookies usually go up in drafts nearer august if he climbs too far though you can't be having

47:49Mike Wright:you can't be taking him in the fifth round no way yeah no he feels like a fun gamble in the seventh or eighth because yeah i mean that's the kind of player versus a low ceiling option that

48:02Jason Moore:you could draft in that same spot yeah and i think we need to give a shout out to brenton strange as well their tight end the hole left by evan sleeper more likely to be filled by a tight end um they they will still throw the ball to the tight end i think brenton strange is actually decently good um didn't he have a game he had a game he had like one big breakout game but he's got the opportunity now and so if you're in i mean obviously this is a deep sleeper he's gonna go undrafted in all your redraft leagues but if you're playing best ball where you're getting three tight ends on a roster i think he's like my favorite third tight end and the uh well if travis hunter doesn't get a ton of snaps then even more so the i just it's impossible how you can't

48:43Andy Holloway:give the the number two horrible pick not snaps not snaps yeah i didn't know not i didn't know

48:48Mike Wright:how to phrase it no i mean you can give him a reduced snap count and target him when he's on the field and let him play some defense though that can happen and the the days of our lives

48:58Andy Holloway:that is the entire running back room uh for jacksonville because it's just like yeah i was gonna yeah that's where we need the soap opera of that thing and etn bigsby and uh and bashal tootin who was getting a draft twitter was very infatuated with tootin and recently if you're just going on the way that the the coaches are talking about him things have shifted

49:25Mike Wright:pretty away from tootin it was too early to be i think it was too early to be enamored with tootin i think it was a proportional reaction to how disappointed people were with etn but you gotta to kind of reset here with a new offense, a new offensive system.

49:44Jason Moore:Which one of you two is drafting Travis Etienne in the ninth round?

49:47Mike Wright:I would.

49:50Jason Moore:At what point does he become someone you can't not draft?

49:54Mike Wright:I think it's the ninth round.

49:56Jason Moore:Yeah, but depending on your build, the ninth round is pretty late. Because it's like I came into this offseason thinking there's no way I would draft Travis Etienne. Like, I don't. Why would I? Why would I possibly draft him?

50:08Mike Wright:Bro, I will pay you to have Grease Hall and Travis Etienne as your two league of record running backs this year.

50:14Jason Moore:No, thank you.

50:16Mike Wright:Everyone in the league will combine to let them slip as far as it takes.

50:20Jason Moore:I believe that. That just shows you... League collusion.

50:25Mike Wright:To help someone.

50:27Jason Moore:Is it collusion that everyone agrees? It's helping with a wink. You know what I mean? It's like, oh yeah, we're going to help you out. Sucker.

50:37Andy Holloway:Gotcha.

50:38Mike Wright:Tank Bigsby could also be –

50:40Andy Holloway:Yeah, I still think I'm – He could have a huge role at the running back position. That's the hardest part of ETN in the ninth is Tank is in the 11th, and he just doesn't catch passes. No, I – yeah, I get that.

50:52Mike Wright:So they will – I did mention they have a schedule that looks all right. They do start the year against Carolina at home. Then it's on the road against Cincy, then at home against Houston, then at San Francisco. I was reading today San Francisco I think has the easiest schedule since 2015 of any team.

51:11Andy Holloway:Oh, man. I wonder who's going to be good on that team.

51:13Mike Wright:If you look at the schedule and you just take out the divisional – because those will be tough games. The Rams, Cardinals, maybe Seahawks games, those could be tough. But everybody else they play, it's hard to look at San Francisco and not see a really good year. Yeah, I know. It doesn't mean it will be good and he'll be healthy. but but if he's healthy he will be good that's what it means and that's the hardest part um goodness all right uh tennessee i said it at the top worst point differential in the 26 years of the titans franchise negative 149 they went 3 and 14 i don't know if there was a a head coach that I saw more frequently because we watch every single game every single week.

52:06Mike Wright:But the level – like I was scared for his personal safety and health. There was no player more at risk of a sideline heart attack than Brian Callahan last year, his debut as a head coach, and he gets to watch Will Levis on a weekly basis turn his plans for this team into mush. He kept putting them out there. I mean, eventually he's like, screw this, we're putting Mason Rudolph out there. that was it it basically had no choice for a good portion of the year and it's like it was it was so difficult to watch you know if you listen to this show last offseason a bet on ridley was a bet on will levis working out it was also a bet on brian callahan fixing problems if you want to look at can it go right for liam cohen can it go wrong it can go wrong if your quarterback can't play football callahan was a very you know exciting name to arrive in Tennessee with the potential of making things better if you had a quarterback instead you got a new quarterback because you had the number one pick well so Andy do they have a quarterback this year they have a quarterback they have a good quarterback but I will not accept the this year part of your question well I think they have a quarterback for the future but I think for this year when it comes to fantasy we're we're gonna have a hard time will rookie Cam Ward put up more

53:29Jason Moore:than Will Levis did last year.

53:31Mike Wright:Yeah.

53:32Jason Moore:This depth chart says that Calvin Ridley is still a value. He is lower than last year, obviously older, but he put up 1 ,000 yards last year despite how that felt. It felt awful, and it was very inconsistent, as the quarterback play was. But when I see Calvin Ridley late in these drafts, I'm really, really surprised how late you can get him in the drafts with humans. I don't know where his ADP is, but in the ones where you're actually doing them, it feels like people don't want Calvin Ridley too much. They don't want any Titans.

54:06Mike Wright:Yeah, and I'm fine if that's the approach you want to take, honestly. I think Ridley could prove to be of value. I think this team could also lean on the running game and keeping Cam Ward in situations that are going to protect him. It's really tough. I mean, how great can a rookie – what kind of numbers can a rookie provide?

54:26Jason Moore:Usually not great. What's the ceiling?

54:28Mike Wright:You know, the touchdowns and things like that. Like Calvin Ridley, I think, was okay on the field, like on the film last year. He was okay. Didn't blow me away. Got frustrated, obviously. Targets were, you know, all over the place, and he couldn't. You know, they invested in a lot of rookie wide receivers in this draft, at least a pile of them. Oh, you have them all in Dynasty. Yeah, I'm so happy. You know, DK and Gunnar Helm in the fourth and Io Manor and they added Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson. So those guys – Yeah, they might not even see the field, those rookies, because I think Lockett and Jefferson could be out there a lot.

55:09Mike Wright:No more Westbrook Akine, touchdown a week. But this was a really, really, really bad team on offense last year. And so it's going to get a reset. Cam Ward's going to get every opportunity. But you're still looking at this team as the basement of this division, right? I mean –

55:24Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, it's tough. this team comes down to Cam Ward, period. Like most teams, the quarterback is everything. But if you're looking for a team to take a huge leap forward, you know, a la the Texans two years ago, a la the Washington Commanders this last year, it's always on the back of, wow, the quarterback was better than we thought as a rookie. And so that's where I don't mind taking the shots on some of these players because, you know, look, Calvin Ridley's probably not going to be great. But also, he was the wide receiver 30 last year, and he's being drafted as the wide receiver 38 this year while having the potential that cam ward comes in and has one of these excellent rookie years which we're seeing more and more and more you know it's like go back five years ago and the hit rate on you know wide receiver succeeding with a rookie quarterback coming in very poor but if you look in more recent history since basically since Justin Herbert you've got a lot of examples of you know someone coming in and and you know Nico Collins being great or Tank Dell being great or or Terry McLaurin being great the the rookie

56:29Mike Wright:Corlin Sutton last year the rookies coming in yeah there have been some of those the data still says that the the peak for that wide receiver one is is pretty low and the most successful ones have been the super hyper elite players over the last 10-15 years you you almost never get double digit touchdowns things like that but the price you pay for ridley is not a lot um i think the question marks for fantasy they're going to be more relevant to people are going to be which you know is tony pollard going to be a value that's the question is do you believe the coaches

57:01Andy Holloway:when they have they have they're saying it yet again of we want to have a timeshare with tony pollard and uh and spears like do you actually believe that because if you don't than Tony Pollard should Tony Pollard is a like where is he going in this in the seventh round seventh round it's like I know ETN is a little bit later but it's like Tony Pollard I would much

57:25Jason Moore:rather have Pollard than I would much rather have Tony Pollard yeah I mean it's very difficult to have someone say almost the identical thing that they said last year that was not true and believe them this year that feels like a fool's errand yeah I mean it it was not close

57:45Mike Wright:for the first part of the year spears had a nice finish to the season where he had more opportunities finally um but it wasn't you know it wasn't the year people people drafted tajay spears last year yeah and it was worth nothing so um chica con quo gave you a little splash

58:04Andy Holloway:in the fantasy playoffs dude i do not remember that did you well that you don't remember when You didn't remember the call of calls, my friend? Oh, yes, yes, yes. Okay. Yeah.

58:13Mike Wright:Wide receiver, or tight end three in week 16, nine for 81. That was the Brenton Strange V Chigakonkwo. This is where you get in fantasy. You have all these exciting, prolific names. And then when you get to week 16, we're sitting here, and every year it's like. It's the good stuff. Was it Jarrett Patterson, the running back? Yeah. For Washington. Yeah. Or years ago, Hightower. Oh, yeah. That was a good one. I mean, you win with some nasty boys, Mike. You got that? Of course I do.

58:41Jason Moore:That's why we say you don't win your championship at the draft. Because a lot of these guys aren't going to be drafted that are going to be in championship games.

58:48Andy Holloway:How does this team see what Okonkwo can do if you feature him in the offense and be like, nah. They just have too many other pass catchers. They got too many superstars. They got Trelon Burks out there.

59:03Mike Wright:No, Chig feels a lot like... Najoku. That's exactly what I was going to say. hey, David Njoku, early career, not the snap counts that you wanted. And then they drafted Gunnar Helm. And look, Oconquo is your best or second best pass catcher. That's the truth. He's one of the most athletic tight ends. They will give him three targets. So you got Ridley, and then really, at this juncture of the career, you got a pile of rookies, and you got the corpse of Tyler Lockett, respectfully. no disrespect to you but yeah chig is just a weekly dart throw situation unfortunately it's sadness uh they start against denver in denver that'll be really tough and then los angeles the rams that'll be tough then the colts at home and then houston if we're looking at the division houston jacksonville indianapolis tennessee give it to me what is the uh how do you think this

1:00:02Andy Holloway:I'm really trying to see how I can not be chalk. Okay. Someone needs to go first.

1:00:09Jason Moore:Andy, I nominate you. I went first last time. I know. You're the leader. You're the host. You went first last time, so you stay first. Right. You established the order.

1:00:20Mike Wright:Yeah. All right. I'll go non-chalk. You ready? Houston wins the division. Chalk. Chalk. Yeah. No, you can't. Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee.

1:00:31Jason Moore:okay so you're just gonna go for just exactly what happened last year no i got it so so there's

1:00:36Mike Wright:multiple versions of chalk there's the betting version and then what happened no matter what you said i would make sure it was let me just see the way that you lead us in this totally

1:00:45Jason Moore:like independent thinking version tennessee all right yeah let's hear it jacksonville okay houston

1:00:55Mike Wright:tennessee indianapolis you're okay so like three years ago the order mike what do you got oh man yeah houston to win the division i think i'm with you andy houston colts jackson jags titans okay all right well i really backed myself into it yeah you did i'm so happy all right we'll be covering the afc east and afc west on the next couple of shows a reminder we're three shows a week make sure you follow check out the ultimate draft kit we're also going to work a mock draft episode in between some of these divisional breakdowns as well so we got lots coming your way the community at join the foot.com including the discord channel with uh i don't know papa josh has a recent number but it's somewhere 30 000 plus 40 000 plus 50 000 plus where are we at josh we are at 58.9 000 goodness gracious this 30 000 i didn't even know there was that many people in the world that's awesome um and yeah check it out join the foot.com is the CommunityUltimateDraftKit.com for your drafts.

1:01:58Mike Wright:And we'll be back. We've got another episode Thursday, Saturday, Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. And then football. Goodbye.

1:02:15Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter at The FF Ballers.

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