Fantasy Football - AFC West Breakdown + Mock Draft Promises - Podcast for 7/14

8:55Jason Moore:achilles yeah i mean that's they they love that daniel jones you know a little bit easier for a quarterback i don't know who all's i mean you could maybe make a move for camara um not a free

9:09Mike Wright:agent i'm trying to think kareem hunt joe mixon nick chubb kareem hunt i don't really care that

9:16Andy Holloway:much kareem hunt just because he he just scores touchdowns yeah so if you take away some goal line work that's a problem but there's no one i don't think there's anyone hanging out who can destroy

9:28Mike Wright:the depth chart all right well um we want to kick this off right away with the afc west breakdown there's a lot to talk about i want to make sure we don't miss anything so we'll take a quick early break and come back with the last afc divisional breakdown what's going on foot clan if you know anything about this show you know we're all about making leagues amazing and part of that as a commissioner a lot of the times i've set up websites for the different leagues that we're in And all of the teams and the players and the records and things like that love doing that for your league. It makes it better.

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12:20Mike Wright:All right, let's get into it.

12:25Mike Wright:Let's get divisional.

12:31Mike Wright:All right, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders. It is a fun division for fantasy and, man, questions to be answered. The Chiefs, before last year's 6-11 season, by the way, had gone 35-3 against the AFC West in the Mahomes era. That is insane. That record is insane. You basically had an L if you faced the Chiefs during his entire tenure before last year.

12:59Andy Holloway:Yeah, the NFL taking Ls.

13:02Mike Wright:Yeah, that's true. I mean, last year the Broncos 14-3, Chargers 11-6, Chiefs were 6-11, and the Raiders were 3-14. It was fun.

13:14Jason Moore:Come on, guys. It was a nice reprieve from like, okay, a breath of fresh air and get something different. That's great. Be good again. I don't care. Sure. We got to enjoy last year. What's crazy is when I think back of last year, the Chiefs season really went sour. or eventually it felt like they knew they were not going to make the playoffs. They kind of shut people down. Mahomes got injured, and they just kind of forgot the second half of the year. But really, I didn't remember until recently when I was preparing for this, it was like, Mahomes only missed the last two games. He played the whole season.

13:50Mike Wright:Yeah, we'll talk extensively about what happened and what you think is going to happen. But we get to start respectfully with the division winner, The 14-3 Denver Broncos, 11-2 in one-score games. Oh, boy. If you want to talk about the Chiefs again really quickly, last year the Chiefs were 12-0. Or two years ago, they were 12-0 in one-score games. They went 1-9 last year. So it just shows you that is the most volatile of stats. Now, if you had to ask me what makes you great at one-score games, I would say a defense the likes of the Denver Broncos and a head coach the likes of Sean Payton. Yes.

14:30Mike Wright:However, a lot of what happened in Denver last year was, you know, there was a lot of makeup put on the face of the offense. Let's put it that way. Like, they were not good looking. Because when you look at the metrics, they were in the middle, 15th in points per game. Fake. And fake, you think that number's fake? Yeah, I think that number's fake. I mean, that's just like a number.

14:56Andy Holloway:No, I know, but I'm saying like it's a statistical truth.

15:00Jason Moore:I realize that, but like they put up 44 points against the Dallas Cowboys. So it's like, oh, well, yeah, OK. So you're saying like on average. Yeah, I'm saying the average points per game. Their consistency rank would be bad. Yeah, it would be like D plus, C minus.

15:13Mike Wright:Now, the big part that stands out to me, a couple of things on this offense, and I really, really want to talk about it because there is a temptation for me to make Bo Nix my guy this year. He's one of the players that when I went into my projections, I really, really look at what's going on. I love Sean Payton. They're the only team who... I don't love... No, clip it. Hold on. Clip it.

15:33Jason Moore:Hold on. I don't think the camera was on me, but my eyes went wide. We got to get that because when he said that, like clip that he loved... Andy loves Sean Payton. You heard it here.

15:45Mike Wright:I have made a horrible mistake. Oh, man.

15:47Jason Moore:Fantastic. You have bad mouthed this man for the last four years.

15:51Mike Wright:I hate Sean Payton, the man, and I love Sean Payton, the fantasy producing. head coach who I trust to make the right play call.

15:58Jason Moore:Sure, but that's not how I'm going to publish it later. I wouldn't.

16:02Mike Wright:Yeah. That's not what I heard. Get to work, Falcon. Fly high. So let me, if I can possibly return to my point. Yeah, go on. The temptation with Bo Nix is that I love the team. I think they're going to be a successful team. I think they're going to threaten for the division. And they're the only team returning 100 % of their carries and targets from 2025. So they're bringing back this offense. And then you just add to the offense, right? But you bring back everybody, and then you add Jalen Waddle, who is an elite yards-after-catch guy. And this was an offense that struggled tremendously with getting the ball down the field.

16:31Mike Wright:They had the lowest yards per attempt in the history of the National Football League for a 14-plus win team. So this is what I'm saying where there was a lot of makeup thrown on the offense. I don't think Sean Payton is satisfied. I do think that there is tremendous risk for Bo Nix. Like, if he falls on his face with all these weapons, right, there's not going to be an excuse when you have one of the best offensive lines in the league. Like, he was sacked half as much. Maybe the best. Yeah, I mean, he was sacked half as much as Justin Herbert. Half. Like, pressures, half. Like, you've been given, like, Sean Payton is not a patient man.

17:04Mike Wright:It's one of the reasons I hate him. Did you hear that, Jay? I did not. But he is not going to have, you've got the best defense, you've got all these elite weapons, you've got a great offensive line, and if you cannot complete passes in this offense and get it done, And I'm telling you, if he falls on his face and starts throwing picks all year long, you're going to have a question about Bo Nix. The good thing for him is everything is set up for him. And so for me, he left a lot on the table last year. And you're like, are you ready to come in here with all of those advantages and deliver? Because if you do, if you go in and throw four or five more touchdowns than you did last year and reduce your turnovers a little bit.

17:43Mike Wright:Sure. You're going to be an elite fantasy option.

17:44Jason Moore:I would agree with you that the rope seems like it's a done deal as a future franchise star, but it really could go the other way. Now, obviously, that depends on him. If he comes out and proves that he's good, great. The first six weeks of the Broncos' season, they start on the road in Kansas City, then the Jacksonville Jaguars, then the Rams, then the Niners, then the Chargers, than the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. That's reason enough not to make them a my guy. That is six unbelievably hard games. They were only favored in one, which is wild for a team that just won 14 games. They returned everybody plus a couple extra pieces.

18:29Jason Moore:They really didn't lose much. And to be favored in one of their first six games, it's tough sledding.

18:35Mike Wright:And their defense is unbelievable.

18:38Jason Moore:So I think they're, I guess my opinion of the Broncos offensively, when I went back and I watched Bo Nix film and I watched specifically, you know, you talk about the average depth of target being bad because, you know, he wasn't able to push the ball down the field.

18:53Mike Wright:It should be the opposite if you can sit in the pocket as long as he did.

18:55Jason Moore:For sure. But he did not have the weapons. As much as I love my man Troy Franklin, they needed Waddle. And when I was watching Bo Nix, what I left with was, dadgummit, they need a wide receiver like Waddle. So I do think Waddle could really unlock this offense, but it will be tough sledding for a, you know, if you want to draft players here, you're going to have some tight games that I think this team will rightfully rely on their defense to start the year.

19:26Mike Wright:So, Mike, the question to you is whether you believe Bo Nix will step up into what he should be for fantasy. Because despite all of the eye tests and the issues he had last year and disastrous performances on Thursday Night Football at Home, where he had 150 yards and a touchdown against the hapless Raiders, he was still the quarterback six in counting stats at the end of the year.

19:49Andy Holloway:Well, he did throw the ball more than anyone in the league. Which is so surprising. 612 attempts. Well, you've got to remember what happened, which also, you know, Bo Nix is also coming off of injury. You know, we do have that. Yeah. You have the Davis Webb, the OC, is now calling plays. Like, that's an official thing. When J.K. Dobbins got hurt, it was a huge problem for this offense. They went, like, the pass attempts, that's because of J.K. Dobbins because he gets hurt. You're hoping that R.J. Harvey, a second-round pick, can step up and be the guy. He could not. R.J. Harvey was fine for fantasy because he was scoring a bunch of touchdowns, and he can get it done in the receiving game.

20:38Andy Holloway:But as of right now where he is in his career, he's nowhere close to Dobbins, and they knew it, and they completely went to a very pass-heavy offense. I'm with you, Jason, of this team needed someone, and I think the addition of Jalen Waddell is huge. I think that Waddle still has it last year on a per-route basis. Still elite. Yards per-route run at 2.42. Cortland Sutton, who was out there running more routes than almost anyone in the league, was at 1.85 yards per-route run. As your top option, that's not good enough. That's not good enough, so you go out and you get Waddle. I am very interested by the Denver Broncos because I think everyone is either priced appropriately or at a value.

21:29Andy Holloway:I agree. All offseason, J.K. Dobbins is one of my favorite picks. I don't get the discrepancy between Dobbins and R.J. Harvey and ADP when you can get the starter in the middle of the seventh round around there. and Waddle in the back of the fourth, not a top 20 wide receiver at the moment, he can easily finish top 15 the way that I see him, the way that he can match up with Bo Nix. And then the potential for Bo Nix himself to bounce back. Him going at QB 15 seems egregiously low for what he is able to do. And not that he's not the cheat code mobile quarterback, but he'll give you. He can give you four.

22:12Andy Holloway:He had 430 rushing yards rookie year, 356 last year.

22:17Jason Moore:He had an ankle, though. Yeah, I don't know if from the beginning it might. We'll hurt him or not. But regardless, he was rookie year quarterback seven, last year quarterback six, adds Jalen Waddell, and now he's being drafted as quarterback 15. So he's certainly a value. Waddell, that's just a matter of what do you believe in Waddell. He's appropriately priced. We're all fans of J.K. Dobbins. That seems like a very mispriced running back in the draft. Love that. the one guy that I can't get myself to draft ever and when I when I it's RJ Harvey isn't it well yeah but no that wasn't who I was bringing up no Corlin Sutton Corlin Sutton you know Waddle shows up and it's like well I would never oh I but Corlin Sutton was the wide receiver 13 two years in a row and he's on he's the remandre of that team yes it Waddle is that just popped

23:04Mike Wright:into my head it was like you don't know how to draft a guy that is solid but isn't the spectacular one.

23:10Jason Moore:Yeah, he's not going to go out there. The thing is, is there's no chance he really wins you a fantasy championship. Pittman or Sutton? Okay, that's a great one. I think Sutton has more opportunities for touchdowns.

23:24Mike Wright:Interesting.

23:25Jason Moore:Corlin Sutton right now being drafted around the seventh round, wide receiver 35. So I'm looking at

23:33Andy Holloway:trying to get a fresh view here of ADP. Dude, Harvey has plummeted. We've done work. Is that our fault? I mean, we're not the only ones who are breaking down Harvey. Who watched football last year. But, like, on Underdog right now, Harvey's 31. Is he going to get to a place now where we're like, hmm, I like him?

23:53Mike Wright:It's almost impossible to make the case for like – Please don't do that to me. Here's the problem. He had everything in front of him. Yeah. And now it's like, how do you possibly get the amount of work where he wasn't as good as we wanted him to be? With Jonah Coleman there, if Dobbins goes down again, which he does every year, Jonah Coleman is now present. I agree with that. And so all of a sudden – And I think Coleman becomes the thumper. Yeah, so the best ball case for R.J. Harvey is a tough one now. Right. For what it's worth, after those initial six games, it is a juicy stretch for Denver.

24:24Mike Wright:They get – they're favored in the next eight matchups. And we're talking seven-and-a-half, eight-and-a-half, nine-and-a-half in some of them. So maybe that's the redemption period of the year if they have some hard-fought games in the first half. so you know we've talked about waddle we've talked about bo nicks we can talk about dobbins and coleman and rj harvey i think we know that payton is willing to be kind of fluid at the position and give a lot of guys carries when bidet and mclaughlin were getting opportunities on this team we kind of rolled our eyes in the back of our head but he's willing to do whatever it takes to get you know production so that could mean coleman getting more snaps if he gets off to a

25:06Andy Holloway:hot start it could mean it could but like dobbins was dobbins was great last year especially when you factor in where you were drafting him i mean the first five weeks of last year not under 11 fantasy points running back 19 was his worst finish has a couple duds after that but he just

25:28Jason Moore:he's a strong player and here's how they here's how they used him the running back attempts of the running back rush share for Dobbins last year, just his game log, 73%, 70%, 85%, 52%, 80%, 78%, 78%, 65%, 83%, 82%. It really was his role, and I do think that that's how they're going to start this year, which is why we all think he's a value right now. But Andy's right. In the past, Peyton has certainly been fine with a three-headed timeshare. Coleman is very good. He's a rookie that we all really loved, fell a little bit in the draft, still good draft capital. But, you know, if he gets the opportunity, I think he he is the path for Dobbins to be a bad pick.

26:16Andy Holloway:Sure. Yeah. I don't Dobbins isn't a foolproof pick. He just he looks like a very strong value right now. He's not he doesn't get the receiving work to be a league winning type of player. but this could be a top half offense and Dobbins could get a bunch of rushing touchdowns and then the the the trio of sorry Jay the trio of Pat Bryant Sutton and Waddle is the that's a strong wide receiver crew in my opinion which if you're in on Bo Nix Evan Ingram's there yeah he's just he's just there what one one finish in the top 10 last year is there any is there any chance that

26:55Mike Wright:it's not Bo Nix's fault and it's that stupid Sean Payton's fault. He is dead last in pre-snap motion. Yeah. In the entire NFL. Yeah, we don't love that. Which we just talked about last week. No, we don't love that. It's a sign of being an old curmudgeon knee. That's a stick in the mud. Suck face.

27:11Jason Moore:Nice.

27:12Mike Wright:I've got so much ground to make up you don't even know. So much ground to make up. Golly, I'll probably have to make fun of Kevin James at some point during this show. Well. Just by association.

27:23Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, it might change with Davis Webb. actually calling the plays and being more involved. We'll see. Hopefully they have more pre-snap motion play action with this offensive line.

27:34Mike Wright:Any other Denver Broncos stuff you want to talk about? Nope.

27:39Jason Moore:No, I would say overall slightly above neutral for me on the fantasy outlook of this team. I don't see any of them as real league winners, but I'm fine with just about everybody at cost.

27:51Mike Wright:The Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 last year. Here we go, baby. I'm hot. I'm hot and bothered. This is such a – this team, it seems like every year we have – This is the year. Yeah, that's what it feels like. Yeah.

28:07Andy Holloway:How many this is the year? Herb bros. How many this is the year? How many?

28:12Jason Moore:A broken clock is right twice a day, my man.

28:15Mike Wright:I find my conviction waning.

28:17Andy Holloway:Oh, no.

28:19Mike Wright:My optimism is that an all-time high. Like, I'm exciting. Okay. I mean, I'm excited at the potential when you put Mike McDaniel and Herbert and Harbaugh and Hampton and Ladd and all these guys together. But it does feel like a team where something just goes wrong on a yearly basis. They were 6-2-1 score games. They were projected to win 9.5 last year. They beat that. Despite an offense that ranked 18th in yards per game, 24th in points per game, that's why Greg Roman got the boot. G-Row? Got to go. got to go and mike mcdaniel we know that this is somebody that you know we talked about he's in the top five i think number one or two in in motion pre-snap motion ray he knows how to get his best players open and get them into situations to succeed it gives me a lot of optimism that he can do that with you know specifically omarion hampton putting him in a position to become an elite running back and then lad mcconkey and huge to be really relevant weekly stars for your fantasy team even in a place where you can kind of say hey lad he let you down but maybe he can be redeemed by mike mcdaniel in this offense jason i know you are a heart uh her bro yes is this another year of of uh not quite there or you think this is a fantasy relevant year for him as a quarterback

29:42Jason Moore:When it comes to Justin Herbert, I believe in the talent of Justin Herbert. He is very good. What he had to deal with last year with the offensive line was a nightmare. He finishes the quarterback nine. I don't look at him specifically as the fantasy piece I want from this team. I look at him as a really good quarterback that can move an offense, get a ton of scoring opportunities. He's not going to go out there and rush for 500-plus yards and get eight rushing touchdowns. He could. He's got the physical capabilities. But with this offensive line, with a healthy Hampton, Mike McDaniel there, this looks to me like a team that's going to score a lot of points.

30:26Jason Moore:The offensive line is the biggest thing for me because this is not a small change. In fact, I don't remember any – maybe last year what the Bears did to their offensive line when they brought in Ben Johnson and they completely took their guards at center and just – Well, they opened the vault. Yeah, they went from one of the worst to one of the best. I expect this year, genuinely, the Chargers offensive line to go from one of the worst in the NFL last year, maybe the worst as far as when they actually played the players who were healthy because their two stars were gone, and then they added one of the best centers in the league this year.

31:03Jason Moore:So you're telling me you get— I dare you to pronounce his last name. No! Professional NFL center. Yes. Tyler B. But you're talking about like a high-end top five left tackle, right tackle, and center that all were not really there last year.

31:23Mike Wright:So to your point, and Theo Ash tweeted this out, like even with Rashawn Slater who went out in the offseason devastating, when Joe Ault was active, they were top five in the NFL and EPA per play. So just having Joe Ault there, it really fell apart after that. He was hit double the amount of times as Bo Nix. Like I said earlier. I mean, that is, again, we've been here with Justin Herbert. I know Mike is, like, we've always had a reason why the season didn't go right for him.

31:51Andy Holloway:The Chargers are the equivalent. B-A-D-I-S.

31:55Mike Wright:That's the last name.

31:56Andy Holloway:B-A-D-I-S?

31:56Mike Wright:B-A-D-I-S?

31:57Andy Holloway:I think it's B-A-D-I-S. B-A-D-I-S. B-A-D-I-S. B-A-D-I-S. Get it fancy.

32:02Jason Moore:B-A-D-I-S. B-A-D-I-S.

32:06Andy Holloway:No. No.

32:08Jason Moore:No.

32:09Mike Wright:I'm okay with it.

32:11Andy Holloway:So the Chargers lately, they are the equivalent of Final Destination. You just, you know. You know. I know. You know. I do know. The catastrophe, you will not escape it. Lightning strikes that team. I will say of, I have, I'm not critical of Herbert's potential in the player. Just the Herb Rose hive of every, year this is the year this is the year of any of all the years this is the most optimism i would share with those who are with the chargers mcdaniel helps a a ton for that let's look to me barbaugh is just he's too old school for me and so the fact that you get i mean you get polar opposites like hard dog is as high t do you think those two guys hear each other when they

33:07Mike Wright:talk or they're just they just take turns and and harbaugh even hear each other them is it like a

33:14Andy Holloway:foreign language back and forth them being matched up together would be interesting television but i am i'm optimistic that this is finally the year that things get put together for herbert and we get back to what we saw with what was that year two of him is hampton one is hampton gonna be an

33:34Jason Moore:elite running back with the offensive line you talked to yes i i that's where i am good to be that's where i'm most excited like i love lad mcconkey i love herber and i love hampton but i'm not a hundred percent sure that it's going to be lad on the field and two wide receiver sets

33:50Mike Wright:which they'll see a ton of 12 personnel and i that's taking over the nfl i see that this is a

33:54Jason Moore:team that is i expect them to win more of their close games this year with harbaugh and this offensive line so to me the big winner of the offense that I can personally project is Hampton I know they brought in Keaton Mitchell and he's an exciting back and some people are really really afraid of him.

34:11Andy Holloway:The wanted poster Jason.

34:12Jason Moore:Yeah the wanted poster but this is a guy who's not going to touch the ball 10 times in the game Keaton Mitchell I mean they're talking about getting him eight touches that's the type of and they'll be valuable they'll be good for the team but I I don't see him as someone that's a reason to be afraid of Hampton. Also, you know, it's really fun to get off to a hot start in fantasy football. Right? Good golly, Miss Molly. What if I told you that they open the season against the Cardinals and Raiders? That's pretty solid. I mean, you're telling me that when you're basically a double-digit favorite, two games in a row, Hampton's not going to get off to a hot start.

34:47Jason Moore:I really like –

34:49Mike Wright:I mean, that is an incredible start to the year. Quinton Johnston will be out there in two wide receiver sets.

34:57Andy Holloway:But then it's road versus the Bills, road Seahawks, Denver, Kansas City right after that.

35:03Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, all teams in this division will unfortunately have to play this division twice.

35:10Mike Wright:That's the biggest argument against any of these teams having a great year is that you have a tough division with three teams that could easily win the whole thing. I mentioned Quentin Johnson he should be out there all the time even in the 12 personnel sets that is an encouragement for him but there is a lot of optimism around McConkie and I do trust McDaniel putting him into a position to succeed

35:32Andy Holloway:I trust McDaniel as well Ladd McConkie is shaping up as one of the I think the most difficult picks in fantasy well because everything makes sense just like everything made sense last year for when a second-round pick goes 82 for 11, 50, and 7. That's a guy who's on a rocket ship to be a superstar in the NFL. And he's so good. And he is so good. He can just destroy zone. He gets open. He has a really high football IQ. and then they bring in Keenan Allen and he's like essentially benched for Keenan Allen.

36:16Mike Wright:I mean that's another point though heading into this year 22 % of targets gone with no Keenan Allen.

36:22Jason Moore:122 total targets to Keenan Allen that are gone. Now I will go into the season.

36:29Andy Holloway:They're like no problem we're just deleting that because he's back in the fourth round.

36:35Jason Moore:Yeah he's being drafted right now as the wide receiver 18. I think that's probably about where he finishes, but he does have the talent and upside and opportunity to smash that. Now, I was just about to say, until Keenan Allen has a team this year, I'm going to half assume, half worry that he's going to be a charger. He's just going to sign late and then ruin Ladd. So if you're doing early drafts right now, I don't know about that. But Kuge, I don't think Kuge has the same upside as Ladd because he doesn't have the same talent. But he's being drafted as a wide receiver like 49. The last two years he's been in the 30s as a wide receiver.

37:14Jason Moore:I'm super happy to take a shot on him late.

37:17Mike Wright:Are you still in on Gadsden as a breakout candidate at tight end with the 12 personnel, with the fact that Njoku was added but really faded down the stretch last year and seems he's on the back of his career?

37:28Jason Moore:Yeah, I was really bullish on Gadsden as soon as we finished the UDK stats, but it certainly hurts him to have Najoku there. However, as a last-round type of pick, that's where I'll go. I mean, we talk about this all the time, or I talk about it all the time. I'm not taking those middle tight ends. I just want shots at those late guys, whether it's – we brought up Dallas Goddard. We brought up some other guys. I think Gadsden is one of those where you take a swing and it just might be a really, really talented – I mean, his rookie season was awesome. He should be on the field a ton.

38:02Mike Wright:He should. He shouldn't be leaving the field very much. All right, we'll take a break, and we'll talk about the 6-11 Kansas City Chiefs.

38:13Jason Moore:See you Sunday on Paramount Plus, your streaming home for the NFL on CBS all season long. That's right, football fans. Stream your live local CBS games every NFL Sunday all the way through the AFC Championship game. Follow the league's biggest stars, the can't-miss matchups, the season's biggest storylines, and catch additional coverage with NFL Today, NFL Today Plus, CBS Sports HQ, Fantasy Football Today, and more. So sign up and sign in to Paramount Plus today, and we'll see you Sunday for another thrilling season of NFL on CBS. streaming live on Paramount+.

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39:54Mike Wright:all right the last uh the last season for the chiefs that was a rough one six and eleven they were projected to win eleven and a half games they went one and nine and one score games they went oh and eight against playoff teams and then to just put a you know be the capstone of the season you lose your half a billion dollar man to a torn left acl late in the season all the recovery reports right now are very very positive but then you also had you know rashi rice had missed the first six weeks last year with the suspension then missed three weeks with a concussion he had his own sort of drama this offseason again like there are there are a lot of questions about this offense in terms of the weapons for patrick mahomes when mahomes will be back as a fully loaded version of himself.

40:46Mike Wright:Last year, they only had four offensive plays of 20-plus yards that resulted in a touchdown. That is the fewest in the NFL. It's the most opposite of what we used to have in Kansas City with the likes of Tyreek Hill and the big plays. They were 20th in points per game, 20th in yards per game. You mentioned it. He only missed two games. This was an offensive just plain didn't work. It was a running game that didn't work at all. No. not at all and so you know you look at the entirety of the chiefs and there's only one player on that team that i have tremendous a good amount of confidence with producing this year

41:19Jason Moore:and is that rushy rice or is that ken walker okay it's ken walker it is i just don't i think it was

41:27Mike Wright:a definitive statement by the team to go out and invest in him and again that's not me saying he's the number one running back or anything like that it's just that i don't he'll say that i see rashi rice's production mahomes production kelsey's production other ancillary weapons vacillating

41:43Jason Moore:all over the place i would agree with you other than rush maybe maybe rice is right rice to me

41:49Mike Wright:well he may vacillate between active and inactive that's true that's true whenever you whenever you

41:54Jason Moore:really always have to lead with when he's on the field when he's on the field he's great when he's on the field you know okay that that is an important distinction that being said most of his not being on the field has been suspension over injury and right now does not seem they've already suspended him for what he had a problem with we haven't heard any news or buzz about the fact that his parole came up costing him games so as of right now my expectation is that he's there week one he is coming off of his own injury however it it always takes remembering how many fantasy points he scores when he is on the field how many targets he gets from Mahomes Mahomes last year was the running game he would scram he would drop back he couldn't find anybody if if rice wasn't there and he would run that was really what saved his fantasy production i don't expect that to happen coming off of a late acl he's going to be dumping it to rushy rice all the time rushy rice last year in the games played eight games played all with mahomes who's on pace for 165 targets from mahomes double digit touchdowns 1200 yards 112 receptions that's that's top three wide receiver type of numbers um is that what you truly believe he would be over the course of an entire season i truly believe over a course of if he plays 17 and mahomes play 17 for this version of the team we've got an old kelsey you can run now ancillary pieces i think that helps i i do too

43:18Andy Holloway:i think i think walker really really helps this team and you know like generally i'm on the the team of a running back addition can't really come in and save an offense they they were awful like they're we mentioned how bad the ground game was but so last year as a team won 20 plus yard run that's what the Kansas City Chiefs had Ken Bone Walker even in limited snaps last year had 10 by himself like walker is a piece of of an offense that this team has not had for a long time and i think him being a true threat an explosive threat where it's not like oh boy it's cream hunter pacheco okay fine they're not defenses they're not housing anything defenses are not worried about those guys breaking off a huge run ken walker is one of the players of Every time he goes to the edge, you're like, oh, someone better tackle him.

44:20Andy Holloway:And I really think that opens things up for Rice. Rasheed Rice, the wide receiver, that's just a different conversation of how good is he actually, how good are his routes. I don't care. He has the mind meld with Mahomes, and so I will just lean on that.

44:38Jason Moore:When I look at – he is obviously a dangerous pick. His risk rating in the UDK is going to be plenty high because he might just do something in the middle of the season that jails him. But if I look at where he's going, it's like, okay, Chris Olave, George Pickens, Rushy Rice, Tee Higgins, Tate. There's only one of those guys that could finish the number one or top three wide receiver. They're all good wide receivers I mentioned, but if you're really wanting to swing for the fences and get a fantasy championship, I could see Rushy Rice being at the end of the year like he was one of the best.

45:15Mike Wright:Yeah, it's wild because, you know, I like Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes was something to prove after last year. I do like that. Eric Biennemi is taking over the offense from Matt Nagy. I mean, taking over in the complimentary sense to Andy Reid.

45:27Andy Holloway:No, Biennemi, this is great news.

45:30Jason Moore:Maybe. Was it Biennemi or was it Tyreek Hill?

45:34Andy Holloway:Okay, that's a fair question. but we know that the offense with Matt Nagy as the OC over the last couple years, we're like, where the heck did Patrick Mahomes go? What is going on here? Like the high-flying good times Mahomes, you remember? That's where Biennemi was on the staff. I got a question for you, Mike. Okay.

45:53Jason Moore:So coming up here really soon, we're going to be talking to Jackson Dart, Cam Scadaboo. We're going to the Fanatics Fan Fest. How much crap should we talk about Matt Nagy? To their faces? their faces. I mean, obviously, we're going to talk infinite behind their backs, but should we, in that moment, bring up our disdain or should we just be gentlemen? I keep vacillating.

46:18Mike Wright:Man, there's so much. I would like you to find a way to ask. Who was it that JSN gave the answer about the offensive coordinator? Walton? No. Shane Waldron. Waldron. Yes. Find a way to get an answer like that.

46:34Andy Holloway:Well, but he's still on the team. It would be next year when he's going to be able to say that.

46:39Mike Wright:Last year, Kansas City, 25th in pre-snap motion, 30th in play action rate. You can't play action when you have no threat of the run. Ken Walker gives them a threat of the run. I laugh at the player subtraction list for the Chiefs this year because it is a laundry list of players we talked about like 10 years ago. Kareem Hunt, Hollywood Brown, and Juju, three of the names departing along with Pacheco. The star has set. I will say this. They didn't. Yeah. The star has set. they didn't really add anybody in like other than ken walker they didn't add anybody in free agency in the draft that are offensive weapons um it's not something they invested in they are going to be a very good defensive team it lends itself to look can we like patrick mahomes coming back from nacl you want to protect him you want to get the ball out of his hands you want to have a running game that protects him that could be part of the recipe to start the season they have a wonderful first six weeks favored favored favored favored by week favored um that's nice to see two home games to start the year then you go on the road against miami las vegas so yeah i mean i'm excited to see if i can become a ken walker fan on a weekly on a weekly basis uh brother this like

47:50Andy Holloway:this is this is best case scenario for for everyone even doesn't matter what side of the walker argument you were on this is because if he fails this year though us walker truthers we will be we're gonna lock the door step out of the train we will we will be done we will admit we were wrong but if he goes to this team and dominates oh man we're never gonna we're never gonna hear the end

48:16Mike Wright:proof all but hey all are michael get a new tattoo all are welcome on the express you care

48:23Jason Moore:What about Worthy and Kelsey? Ken Bone Walker. Kelsey more than Worthy. I think Worthy and Thornton, you know, with the fact that Ken Bone.

48:31Andy Holloway:You guys saw the Worthy video, right?

48:33Jason Moore:Yeah. Oh, yes.

48:35Andy Holloway:The routes. Real tight corners. Tight. Oh, man.

48:39Mike Wright:That looked like some thick grass, man.

48:40Andy Holloway:Why did, why?

48:41Jason Moore:Why post that? Why was that posted? Yes. For those who haven't seen it, Worthy was running the most ridiculous. I don't even, you can't call it a route. He's running circles. He's running circles. He's running big wide circles. And it looks worse than I would expect my kids to do.

48:58Andy Holloway:I don't know. As not a professional wide receiver, perhaps something's going on there that we don't know about.

49:04Jason Moore:But optically, why are you posting that? Yeah, I agree. I think that the deep threats in Worthy and Thornton will have their games, but it's tough for me to want to draft them because I don't think they will be reliable enough. Kelsey is another one of those guys that, I mean, look, he's got at the end of the draft again. Some of these, not everybody that we mentioned in this handful of late round targets at tight end will be there at the end of the draft. But for sure some of them will be because there's enough of those tier of guys where they're just undrafted. And maybe Kelsey goes a little earlier because he's first ballot Hall of Fame and people hope for the upside.

49:46Jason Moore:but when he slips in a draft to those double-digit rounds, he's an absolute fan. Laporta for your team or Kelsey? I would much rather have Kelsey in the 12th or 10th than Laporta in the 5th.

49:57Mike Wright:Laporta's going in the 5th? No.

49:59Jason Moore:No, but I would much rather have him. I don't know. Where is Laporta going right now?

50:02Mike Wright:I'd much rather have Kelsey in the 15th than Laporta in the 1st. I'll tell you that.

50:06Jason Moore:Yeah. No, dude, me too. Me too. You blew my mind for a second.

50:11Mike Wright:I bet he's going in the 9th. He's 8th. Okay. the Raiders last team we get to talk about in the AFC West projected win total last year was six and a half they ended up with the worst record in the league despite having according to Jason the league's best quarterback in Geno Smith only comparatively to the last I know I know I just am having fun with it two and five and one score games they won week one against the Patriots which is wild the Patriots go to the Super Bowl oh week one in Foxborough but um one I mean, beyond that, they were 2-14. Their win total this year, 5.5. So they're only favored in three of their 17 games.

50:48Mike Wright:They were the worst offense in football last year. They were one of the worst defenses in football, and you have a head coaching change because Pete Carroll, goodbye. It was fun, but the flavor in that bubble gum, it's finally gone. Clint Kubiak, though, I mean, this was the time to capitalize. You go and you do what you did in Seattle. It was impressive. And he gets the head coaching gig. They add Kirk Cousins. They obviously drafted Fernando Mendoza at 101. They added an elite edge rusher in Max Crosby.

51:26Andy Holloway:Yeah, that's right. From the Ravens. Yeah.

51:29Jason Moore:Two first-round picks. Yeah. Okay.

51:31Mike Wright:Do you realize, by the way, that like, you know that Mendoza's not under contract?

51:36Andy Holloway:I did not know that. Wait, he hasn't? What? Yeah, go Google it. Is that why he's out on Alaska? No. Yes, it is. You're saying he hasn't signed?

51:45Mike Wright:I do not believe he is. I believe they thought he was going to sign. I see he's signed. One day ago, Marcus Allen talking about the Fernando Mendoza situation, the fact that he is not in the building. He was supposed to. Yes. This is what I'm saying. It's been very under-publicized.

52:04Jason Moore:It's been under-publicized because it will be irrelevant.

52:07Mike Wright:But it's relevant to your snaps and your OTAs and your chance to get reps on this team and your confidence from your head coach. I would agree.

52:15Jason Moore:The difference, and I think— This is why he was on a cruise with me. Right. From our perspective, everyone expects Kirk Cousins to start the season, and everyone expects Mendoza to finish the season.

52:27Mike Wright:I believe that's what's going to happen no matter what. But I just—I didn't realize it. I feel like it hasn't been talked about because these are normally slotted situations. and the money's pretty set so then you're talking about things like signing bonus differentials or

52:40Jason Moore:something yeah there's always weird things and i'm not i'm not the expert on what's going on because i this is sort of breaking news the last week i my it also looks like their fourth round

52:52Andy Holloway:pick mccoy hadn't signed well they are the raiders yeah so when you got certain figure it out so it It is going to be Cousins to start this year, which I think is good.

53:04Mike Wright:Cousins loves to throw the football to the running back position. That's the thing that jumps out to me. If you want to get off to a hot start, I'm already in love with Dash and Jinty this year, but give me a professional quarterback that's already played. There are just metrics rookie quarterbacks don't hit. They don't hit certain touchdown totals. They don't hit certain yardage totals. The pass attempts per game are going to be lower. I like that it's Cousins to start the year.

53:27Jason Moore:I do, too. We've talked a lot about the research that we've done, Mike's done, on the fact that pass-catching weapons don't usually do well in fantasy with a rookie quarterback. So if you give half a year of Cousins and half a year with Mendoza, and specifically the second half of the year with Mendoza, obviously they're going to be better then than having to start the season slow.

53:48Andy Holloway:I mean, there's some risk of Ashton Janty if you're saying that Mendoza's inevitable. Yes. It's just at what point? No, there's been whispers of they want an entire year of red shirting. That'd be great. That would be great. Would you be able to? You're not going to do that if you're two and three. Well, you might.

54:11Mike Wright:You might.

54:12Andy Holloway:But at what point?

54:13Mike Wright:If the season's lost, you also have to make that decision about are those reps valuable.

54:16Andy Holloway:What I'm getting to is I will always be on the side of I'm worried about rookie quarterbacks, their skill players, because rookie quarterbacks just don't produce as much. if you have a switch halfway through and now it's like bowers it genties one of your guys and you're heading into the playoffs like you want if you have a a down first half in an elite

54:38Jason Moore:second half that's so much better yeah i mean i i because you want to win a champion i see what you're saying but i think that when we look at and maybe we can do a study on on um second half of the year rookie you know and they're receiving options in the second half of the year because It's very, very common where we come in talking about a second-year quarterback, and we say, let's throw out the first month of their play. Let's look at the second half of their year, and it's significantly better.

55:01Mike Wright:It makes just all the sense of the world. Right, but if he doesn't get a first half. It's his first half if he's taken over at the back half.

55:06Jason Moore:I mean, obviously it depends on what week he goes in, but I don't think he makes it all the way to the fantasy playoffs before he gets his first start.

55:13Mike Wright:I don't like – it is interesting because both of the elite tight ends that you want the most on your team this year do have quarterback change variables built in sure if Bowers gets off to a rock solid start and Bowers is going to be awesome he is going to be awesome but you are going to have look we spent the entire time talking about the Cardinals when we broke them down what the target totals and the numbers look like for Trey McBride with Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals are a team projected to win almost nothing there's a chance they take a shot on Carson Beck or somebody the second half of the year or the second tone you You know, the last third of the year.

55:49Jason Moore:I would be surprised if Carson Beck doesn't get some starts.

55:52Mike Wright:So that is something that's built into both these guys. If Mendoza takes over for the last third of the year, you're going to be underdogs in all those games. You're getting your first snaps. You're going to put pressure on the quarterback. It is going to be a variable there for Bowers and Trey McBride that are, like McBride's numbers were so outlandish with Brissette. We're like, oh, well, they'll just be good with somebody else. It's how many touchdowns does Mendoza throw? How many touchdowns does Carson Beck throw for Arizona? That's the concern. McBride's always been great. It was the touchdowns that destroyed him.

56:21Mike Wright:I do not – it doesn't stop me from drafting Bowers because who else are you going to take if you want elite production at tight end? But I know that Caleb Williams is going to be the starter for the entire year for Colson Loveland. Sure. Daniel Jones, barring injury, is going to start the entire year for the Indianapolis Colts. It's just something to keep in the back of your head.

56:37Jason Moore:Yeah, that's fair. I think that the talent of Bowers and McBride just usurp the quarterback issues, especially Bowers because well Carson Beck I mean Carson Beck if he gets starts that's going to be really really tough sledding Mendoza's the number one overall pick for a reason I maybe he doesn't throw as many touchdowns which nerfs the true upside but the number one target for this team is Bowers I mean by the widest margin ever you don't have that same certainty with McBride like maybe Marv becomes the number one target this year or or whatever I did laugh at your your

57:10Mike Wright:statement about that they don't um we did research on how like pass catchers don't do good with rookie rookie quarterbacks and then the raiders like yeah so we won't have any we decided we'll just not have any other than bowers we're just not gonna not gonna worry about nailer and tucker and bestion

57:26Jason Moore:i actually love the raiders here because their defense is bad and their consolidation of talent is perfect you have bowers you have gente and you have no one else to even like consider looking at or for fantasy you don't even have someone else in my opinion to consider thinking about considering like I'm not going to be worrying about Jalen Taylor below consideration correct um so I really like both Bowers and Gentee they're going to have so much volume and they have so much talent that that just that combination when you're that good and you get that much work yeah it's going to be tough sledding yeah you're going to be playing down and you might not score as many touchdowns, but you're just going to volume your way to fantasy points.

58:14Mike Wright:Mike, you know where Jason and I stand on our love of Gentry going into the year, but does the upside of Gentry and that workload outweigh the risk to you for a team that's projected to only win five games?

58:27Andy Holloway:So Gentry is like, you know, I'm a few spots behind you guys because I think he's – the situation is risky. I have no problem Ashton Jenty the player is is awesome you know he he did handle a huge workload last year which is somehow it's an ability I mean I don't know how to quantify it but there's just guys that can do it and there's guys that cannot he you know when a play actually gets going he's electric he will force a missed tackle I think you know they took Mike Washington Jr. just size speed freak they took him in the fourth round the way that koob's handled charbs and ken walker gives me at least a little bit of pause that that that a backup might be in there more than you want so it's i think he is a a sketchy a sketchy pick at adp where it could i can see everything going right and he's just truly truly a dominant player because he's The talent wins out.

59:32Mike Wright:Do you think he could lead the league in rushing yards?

59:35Andy Holloway:No, not in rushing. Okay. And if you're saying yards from scrimmage, maybe, he has to catch a whole bunch of passes. I got you. You know what I mean? I will say this. You can't lead the league in rushing.

59:48Mike Wright:I don't like that start to the year, man. Chargers on the road, Saints on the road, Chiefs, New England, and Buffalo.

59:54Andy Holloway:With their situation, and they're going to win. Let's say they have a great year. They win six games. like this the first overall pick to winning six games with a quarterback switch that's a solid season you can't lead the league in rushing with that that would be a job could kyle that's an interesting trivia question like what's the worst record for a russian leader yes

1:00:14Mike Wright:i wonder if you could get it get that stat for us before the show ends um i don't know if he's

1:00:20Jason Moore:that talented i think i think two things uh left to consider we we we saw last year kirk cousins when he took over, Drake London was injured for most of those games. B. John Robinson and Kyle Pitts. And Kyle Pitts, the tight end and the running back, the consolidation for Kirk Cousins was unbelievable. 106 target pace for B. John during those final games. Pitts was great. So you've already seen, like when I watched Kirk Cousins' film, he has lost it. He does not have the deep ball. I love Kirk Cousins. We've always been a big stan of Kirk Cousins back in the Vikings day. We felt like he was so under-respected, but he is not that guy anymore.

1:01:06Jason Moore:But to the tight end and running back, not the deep shots, those aren't going to happen, but he's going to support these two phenomenally. And then the other thing that I don't think we've made enough big a deal about is the offensive change here. Clint Kubiak coming in is not just a good offensive mind coming in. He's replacing an inept situation where you had this weird nepotism with Pete Carroll hiring his two sons as like an offensive assistant and offensive line coach and then ends up firing other people but not his sons. It was just like it was a really bad situation they were in, and they're going to swing the pendulum to a really good situation.

1:01:49Jason Moore:They still don't have the talent on the offensive line, but I believe that there will be I really like those two players I have no fears of either one at value I think Gentry returns on value this year and Brock is I must stand corrected

1:02:05Andy Holloway:as there was a player on a six win team who led the league in rushing in 2010 you want to guess? I could never

1:02:14Mike Wright:but his name is Arian Foster baby

1:02:18Andy Holloway:your dream boat

1:02:19Mike Wright:that's that's how good foster was all right thursday's show is a mock draft episode you do not want to miss that one and then we'll start jumping into the nfc on saturday um yeah get into the udk jason is guaranteed a new feature that we're not sure is even going to be there update your app immediately ultimate draft get.com feedback and um let us know how those mock drafts are going at sport at fantasyfootballers.com.

1:02:46Andy Holloway:How in the world does a running back have 1 ,600 rushing yards, 16 rushing touchdowns? So he averaged over 100 yards per game on the ground, and you're 6-10.

1:02:59Mike Wright:How is that even possible? I wonder what they were in one score games, Mike. Probably pretty crappy. All right, that is going to do it for today's show. Shout out to Arian Foster, my main man. Maybe we'll get one of those years from Jenty. Goodbye.

1:03:15Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

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