Fantasy Football - Bounce Back Players + Jason's Cleavage??? - Podcast for 6/23

14:20Mike Wright:The real number cannot be lower. No. That's the thing that's wild is where he's being drafted. And, again, I will go back to it over and over and over again. And thank you – maybe thank you for being hurt this summer, Alec, because I think the team has done nothing to say that they don't have confidence he'll be healthy, he should be back in training camp. But being injured is just going to continue to depress his ADP. I don't think it's going to go up. And in my opinion, he will be a number one wide receiver for this team. In that same article, they talked about the fact he's going to be running routes at every depth, asked to do more and more.

14:54Mike Wright:He talked about how he knows he's going to get the ball more. It's a bet. It's a fantasy bet you can make. on a guy that makes big plays on the regular. And I like the touchdown upside of that position. So Dan Campbell said that Sam Laporta could be cleared for the start of training camp next month. Jason won't draft him, even if he's played in three training camps.

15:15Andy Holloway:Do you have any concerns, Jay, about Jamison Williams?

15:20Jason Moore:Like whether or not he takes a hit with Laporta? Yeah, absolutely.

15:24Andy Holloway:The lines are very clear looking at the box scores. Now, there's the variable of Dan Campbell taking over play calling duty, so you do have that in there, but it's like Jameson Williams took off like a rocket ship when Sam Laporta got hurt.

15:39Jason Moore:Yeah, the questions as to whether or not that was because Laporta's targets were gone and now they needed Jameson Williams more or whether it was the coaching change or whether it was just chaos, I think the truth is in between. I mean, we saw him be pretty good the year prior with Laporta on the field. The whole issue here is a great offense, and Amon Ra is going to get his. He's the number one target for sure. Jameer Gibbs is going to get his. So then I do feel like that next read in the offense will just be split and shared between those two guys.

16:11Mike Wright:Yeah, I agree with you. And as somebody who loves Jamison Williams, he is perennially set up to be the Zay Flowers fantasy finisher of the year is the award I'm going to call it, which is you can finish at 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and not be predictably helpful for your team because there's going to be games that Jameson has two long touchdowns and then games where he disappears, and that's the scary part. I think his fantasy finish will be better than his consistency, but we'll see.

16:39Jason Moore:He was the wide receiver nine last year. Okay, so he already did that. Yeah, he did exactly that.

16:44Andy Holloway:His splits are insane. You have 35 games with Laporta where he averages 48 yards a game. And then the nine games with no Laporta, 85 yards per game. That's not just a small uptick in your production. That's wild.

17:03Mike Wright:Yeah, and a lot of those were last year, right? Yeah. I mean, out of those nine, how many of those games were last season? And that's where you were talking about the hard part of predicting because there was a play caller change and he started getting the ball more, but Laporta was out. It's a tough one. I don't know if you were looking that up He missed the last seven games So seven of the nine in his entire career Without Laporta were the last seven And that includes a zero For Jameson Williams Wasn't he on pace for like 1400 yards in that span? Probably I mean it was awesome And again this is why I think Jared Goff is just weird He's just a weird pick for fantasy Like I The stats ended up with him much higher Than ADP for me Or than consensus sure and you you love amanra and laporta and jameson and gibbs and the play caller and the team and the fact they're favored in 14 of their first 15 games so how do you not like golf yeah and that's the hard part like that's your free pass at the end of the draft another you know

18:08Andy Holloway:line in these this analytical train jared goff if you if you don't remember to start last year Jared Goff was very mediocre for fantasy after you know in 2024 he was the QB six with 19 points a game so he was with under a new play caller he was interesting and then you're like hey let's draft Goff maybe is looking good and he was very mediocre they bye week happens they switch and then there's a lot of top 10 finishes there for Jared after the bye week he was on pace for

18:41Jason Moore:5 ,000 passing yards. That's encouraging.

18:44Mike Wright:Which offensive scheme shows up? Well, not the one of the fired guy. I don't think it'll be that one. That's good news.

18:54Jason Moore:They were also dealing with a very injured defense where they had to get into a little bit more shootouts at the end of last year as well.

19:00Mike Wright:I do like that Dan Campbell is one of the few head coaches in the league that is willing to stomp on his opponent's throats. Yes. Why don't more coaches do this?

19:13Jason Moore:Yeah, don't take it easy. Don't take the foot off the gas. Just go murder your opponent with tons of fantasy points.

19:19Mike Wright:It's the espressos. It really is. It's the extensive caffeine intake.

19:23Andy Holloway:Yeah, if you can't calm down, you can't calm down. Yeah.

19:25Mike Wright:All right, we'll take a break. We'll get into some bounce back players, have some debates.

19:32Jason Moore:See you Sunday on Paramount Plus, your streaming home for the NFL on CBS all season long. That's right. football fans. Stream your live local CBS games every NFL Sunday all the way through the AFC championship game. Follow the league's biggest stars, the can't miss matchups, the season's biggest storylines, and catch additional coverage with NFL Today, NFL Today Plus, CBS Sports HQ, Fantasy Football Today, and more. So sign up and sign in to Paramount Plus today, and we'll see you Sunday for another thrilling season of NFL on CBS, streaming live on Paramount+. This episode is sponsored by PrizePix.

20:16Jason Moore:Football is back and PrizePix is giving users a new promo every day during stacked September. Sign up now for guaranteed picks every Monday, along with profit boosts and daily discounts. You just pick two to six players, then pick more or less on their projected stats. I know I've been down on Devon Achan, but he's playing against Las Vegas and they are not going to stop him. That's where I'm going this week. Download the app today and use code footballers to get$150 instantly in lineups. If you win your first$5 lineup prize picks run your game hello everybody i am back

21:04Mike Wright:is that you in a waldo outfit apparently when did you dress up as waldo or is that the magic of ai

21:12Jason Moore:i don't know well i know you didn't dress up as waldo i'm pretty confident you didn't never did

21:19Mike Wright:That was never a Halloween thing for Mike? No. Audio. Audio crew is just. I looked like Waldo, everybody. Bounce back candidates. These are submitted by the Foot Clan. So you guys sent these in for us to discuss and debate. There is nothing quite like finding a value in the draft as a bounce back player. Somebody that had performed really well before. A few years ago, Mike Evans as a my guy was one that, you know, people were able to draft later in the draft they come back to form they help you win the number one answer submitted by the foot clan is brian thomas jr because oh what ways you'd have to bounce back from number four in 2024 number 44 in 2025 um disaster that was another piece of news that popped up just how on the same page trevor lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr.

22:17are, which is good.

22:19Mike Wright:I mean, I want to hear that. Yeah, man. 48 catches last year, Mike.

22:23Andy Holloway:The stuff coming out of Jags camp is everybody. It's roses. It's the greatest player of all time. Like, it's going to be Jacoby. No, it's going to be Parker. No, because it'll be Brian Thomas.

22:36Jason Moore:Travis Hunter has been playing offense the entire time. Everybody's going to be great.

22:43Mike Wright:Yeah, I mean, a lot of things change for Brian Thomas Jr. He dealt with a lot of drop problems. The screen game was removed. That involved him. His average depth of target went up an extra three yards from his rookie season, and he ended up struggling on some of those. I do agree that they were never on the same page. His catch percentage dropped 12%. His yardage 500 yards scored twice on the year. And the team basically proved that, look, if it's not working for you, we're going to win a different way. I think that's – like this is not a player with such tenure in the NFL where you're like, oh, you have a few bad games.

23:26Mike Wright:Our offense has to run through you. No, they just said, we'll just turn Parker Washington into a star and Travis H.N. Jr. out of the backfield will dominate and we'll find a way to win without you.

23:36Jason Moore:Well, Liam Cohen wasn't even here for Brian Thomas Jr.'s rookie year. He wasn't a part of, you know, during the offseason leading into last year, Liam Cohen shows up, talks about how great Brian Thomas Jr. is, but he didn't have him. He's like, we're going to try to get this guy the ball as much as we can, and they really did. Out the gate. They were throwing a lot. Out the gate. Week one, seven targets. Week two, 12 targets. That amounted to a combined 50 yards. And so, yeah, you're right. They went other places. and it worked really well. So the bounce back can happen. Obviously, I think everyone in the world believes he has the talent to go out there and be a dominant wide receiver one.

24:23Jason Moore:However, the way that they're going to be able to spread the ball around, the way that there are so many mouths to feed in this offense, it is very – I'm skeptical that a bounce back to being an alpha, to being a top, you know, to being a wide receiver one. I think he was wide receiver seven his rookie year. Four. Four? Geez Louise.

24:43Mike Wright:Yeah, I mean, I don't think that's happening. I think you have to define a bounce back as returning to the form of the previous year, which would be in the top five. I don't think that's happening either. One of the craziest stats, he had 17 screen targets as a rookie. Caught all 17 of them, and it was one of the most valuable wide receivers behind the line of scrimmage. He had one screen target last year. And if that's the way the offense is going to run, because the offensive coordinator is consistent right now with Liam Cohen. Those easy targets don't seem like they're going to be on the way, Mike.

25:14Andy Holloway:Yeah, we all have him. I have him at 23. We all have him ranked that he represents a value compared to his ADP. Jay, even for you being like, ah, sounding more negative, you still have him above ADP. You still have him even one spot above basketball ADP. He is a – I think he's a unique bet. You're going to want to – you're going to want to take at least one sort of bet on Jacksonville. Like, I think, like, in almost every single one of your fantasy teams between – I'm not just talking about receivers. I'm going to include two. Like, just – you're going to want pieces of this. Of course, not all of them will work.

25:55But it's for how good Parker looked and Jacoby, it's just if Brian Thomas is the one that makes the most sense of the guy who bounces back and they're like, no, OK, he is the target leader.

26:11Andy Holloway:He's you know, he he goes back like he he goes to a 24 percent target share, which will be a very big uptick. I mean, he started hot, and I think there was some injuries not being properly reported. And so I guess I'm more on the side of a bounce back than him ending up as wide receiver 37, where he's going in sleeper.

26:34Jason Moore:I certainly like where he's being drafted. And he's being drafted around Jacoby Myers and Parker Washington. So it's all the same bet. I will certainly be betting on him to emerge because he is the most talented. He's a former first-round draft pick for a reason. He's had 1 ,500 receiving yards in a season. He's the good bet. However, it's a different team than the one that he was the only target to throw to a couple years ago. Now they've added pieces. They've got three guys that were not involved the couple years ago. Parker was there. Yeah, but Jacoby coming in.

27:10Mike Wright:Travis Hunter. It's important to mention they added Jacoby last year. while they dealt with struggles with Brian Thomas and decided they needed somebody else.

27:19Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, it's just very different. I mean, I'm looking at his rookie season where he had 133 targets. The next most targeted player on the team was Evan Ingram at 64 targets. And so, yeah, he had that great breakout season, but this is just a completely different offense now.

27:43Mike Wright:Last year, they rank passer rating when a player is targeted, where when he was targeted, the passer rating was 65.1. That's 101st out of 109. You know who that was tied with? Jefferson. Justin Jefferson. Oh, man. But behind that, it was like Josh Palmer and John Dotson and Adonai Mitchell and Jerry Judy, and that's not company you want. Ten interceptions for Trevor Lawrence when targeting him. How many picks did he throw? How many did he throw in the year? Last year it was 10? 10 interceptions when targeted.

28:20Andy Holloway:That's got to be. He was at 12. Huh. Yoinks.

28:27Mike Wright:All right. Someone trade for Jacoby Myers, please. The next. Where do we want to go? Let's go David Montgomery. Let's move it to David Montgomery and then we'll bounce back up. Talk about another wide receiver running back situation. 29 years old. We briefly did we mention him on the footcast on this show? Because we talked about him a little bit recently. I don't I don't. What is the vibe around Houston right now? Let me start there before I introduce this segment. What is your general vibe on Houston?

28:58Jason Moore:Because I'm getting general vibe is they are a great football team with one of, if not the best defense in the league. And they've got a question market quarterback that is the entire that the answer to how good this team is, is entirely just is C.J. Stroud the real deal or none. I mean, that's my vibe of the team.

29:18Andy Holloway:They have everything. Sorry, not everything, but they have a lot of what you want in a championship team, the defense, and then including an elite wide receiver, a pair of interesting young up-and-coming wide receivers, and then you've got the guy, and then you have Tank Dell coming back from injury. So they're surrounded. it it should work but i think that's what the vibe is entirely on the questions on stroud we

29:49Mike Wright:basically um are in a situation now woody marks had a lot of fantasy relevance for periods of time last year got banged up joe mixon a couple years ago burst onto the scene joe mixon's by the way we don't even we don't even talk about that put joe mixon in the waldo outfit i mean we don't you won't you won't find him that's the end right is that what it is oh it's over joe mixon absolutely

30:10Jason Moore:Joe Mixon will never play football again. It certainly seems like it.

30:13Mike Wright:So they trade for David Montgomery. Houston does. Or he's just waiting for a training camp injury. And, you know, I guess the interesting thing about Montgomery, so last year he only averaged nine fantasy points a game. He still scored eight touchdowns. So that is, I mean, that was real feast or famine. He basically scored or made you sad. It was a big step back production-wise or fantasy than the year before where he was the running back 18. By the way, he was the running back 18, and he missed three games in 2024. But I don't feel like anybody here is like, well, David Montgomery, you really suck.

30:50Mike Wright:You really took a step back, and they just couldn't put you on the field. It was more, we're just better with one of the best running backs in the game on the field, and I'm sorry, but it just can't be you out there.

31:00Jason Moore:Yeah, there was a lot of reporting at the end of the year and with how they got rid of David Montgomery that it was kind of rumored that they were doing that as much for David Montgomery as for themselves. They wanted David Montgomery to be able to go somewhere where he can get the ball more. He wanted more touches. He's that type of back. He used to be David Mopportunity because it was all about the opportunity. It was back in the day when his sophomore season, he's got 315 opportunities. He was the running back four in fantasy, obviously a long time ago, different team. That was for the Bears.

31:37Jason Moore:but they just could not keep giving him the ball over Jameer Gibbs it's just it's it's a negative play for your team and so this is exactly what the Texans did a couple years ago they looked at their team and they said we need to go out and get a veteran running back that we can like rely on bigger back bigger back that can catch the ball that can be a three down back and they They went out and they got Joe Mixon, and Joe Mixon was excellent for them. I mean, he was great in fantasy football. I think he missed three games that year and was still the running back 11, had a stretch of time where he was the running back one.

32:14Jason Moore:For 12 weeks, he was like the number one running back. Yeah, and he was an older back. And so I don't think – In his age, he would have been just turning 28.

32:25Andy Holloway:Oh, 28. Am I doing the – Mixon? Yeah. I think he was 28 or 29. Because he's 29.8 right now, and that was two years ago? Yes, correct.

32:34Jason Moore:So he was 28. And Montee's 29. He's going to be 29 this year. Montgomery didn't look to me like he lost anything. I know he's an older back, but he was never like the breakaway explosive type of runner.

32:46Mike Wright:He was better yards per attempt last year than the year before.

32:48Jason Moore:Yeah. Yeah, I mean, he's – I believe that this is a great pick in fantasy. you're talking about a guy who is not a high-end expensive draft pick where he's probably going to get the vast majority of work be a bell cow for a team that is projected to win a lot of games and be leading a lot of games be leading and be conservative they they want to put the ball in david montgomery's hands over cj strout's hands yeah every handoff is not an interception correct is what they say that's the that was the quote so i mean i i the bounce back doesn't fit

33:23Mike Wright:the my mindset on david montgomery it's just more like a returned opportunity for david montgomery i don't think like you said it's not going to be flashy it's not going to be big plays you know what you're actually looking for here you're looking for the texas kyron williams that's that's kind of the makeup here tyron williams doesn't run away from people he's just good in the red zone he's versatile he can catch the football that's what montgomery can do montgomery got tons of targets in in detroit and did a lot with him he reminds me a lot of what james connor

33:55Jason Moore:was for several years as an older back he's just a guy that's going to go out there and he's never going to get 20 yards on a run but he'll get 15 yards on a run regularly you know It takes a village to tackle him. He is a scary pick.

34:15Andy Holloway:You want to hate him. I know it. Yes, because everything about this profile of a 29-year-old changing teams and where I stop myself on the Texans don't have everything because they don't have a great offensive line. It projects to be a pretty weak part of their game.

34:34Mike Wright:They keep trying to find a way to rebuild it. and they can't do it yet.

34:38Andy Holloway:Montgomery's going to get a ton of work, but he's about like a six-rounder, it seems, on sleeper. He is in the running back dead zone because he's a starting running back who is not exciting with a bad offensive line. And the numbers, you know, the two years ago when he was not getting a ton of opportunities on the field, he had 12 rushing touchdowns. Like, he's not getting 12 rushing touchdowns with the Houston Texans. You don't think so? I don't think so, no. Hmm. You think you can get to 12? I think it's actually possible there.

35:14Jason Moore:I think it is possible that he could get double-digit touchdowns. Obviously, this isn't projected to be a top-five offense, and with what you're saying about the offensive line, that's true. They did spend their first-round pick on a guard, so hopefully that is going to help improve the line. But there's a team that will keep running the ball all game, all the time. And when they get around the goal line, they have not been able to punch in touchdowns.

35:38Mike Wright:23 five-zone carries for the running backs last year led to four touchdowns.

35:42Jason Moore:Exactly. That's why they went out and got David Montgomery. They're like, we would like to score touchdowns when we run it in the red zone. I remember a lot of these plays. And who knows? Maybe that is entirely the offensive line. But I'm sure. What's the ceiling? I think he could. Ceiling, best-case scenario, I think he could be a running back one. I think he could be like RB. RB9? RB, yeah, exactly.

36:00Mike Wright:Mike, what's the ceiling for you?

36:02Andy Holloway:I don't disagree with the ceiling, but it would take the 12 type of rushing touchdowns, which last year, guys with 12 or more, you had Taylor, Henry, Gibbs, Jacobs, James Cook, and then you have the, hey, I'm Zach Charbonnet. I have 12 touchdowns, but it's like. Zach Charbonnet had 12 rushing touchdowns in the season last year? Oh, gosh. That must have won the Super Bowl. Just imagine Ken Walker with 12 extra rushing touchdowns.

36:33Mike Wright:RB 26 right now on sleeper for Montgomery. I have him at 26 on the dot. Jason at 22. Mike at 25.

36:39Andy Holloway:ADP is not out of control. I just hate that this is exactly the profile and arc type of a player that is bad news and you should not.

36:49Mike Wright:And Woody Marks did flash at times last year. It's not to say that, like, I don't think that this team is going to not put marks on the field at all. So that's another risk factor is just what the breakdown looks like.

37:01Jason Moore:Yeah, and I don't mind if people, I mean, when you're in your draft, it depends on how the first few rounds, what do you need here? Because you're going to be sacrificing a quarterback. Yeah, exactly. The opportunity cost. Yeah, you're giving up a Jaden Daniels if you want to take a shot there, or a Roma Dunze if you want to take a shot there. Someone that could really break, you know, while I say that running back nine is like best case scenario, I think what you're drafting in David Montgomery is just a solid running back two. I think he is being drafted well after solid running back twos, and so he's a good value.

37:31Jason Moore:But he's probably not going to go out there and just flat out win you a championship. He's not, at the end of the year, we're not going to be like one of the best picks in the entire, you know, the way that Rome could be or the way that Jaden Daniels could be in that same area. But he is, to me, he's safe.

37:47Mike Wright:All right, we'll take another break and we'll come back and talk about two players that are 30.8 years old.

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39:25Mike Wright:All right, back to the bounce back players.

39:27Andy Holloway:Bounce back to the buffet.

39:29Mike Wright:30.8? 30.8 years old. Which, dude, honestly, I bet Josh doesn't even remember when he was 30.8 years old.

39:39Jason Moore:That was a long time ago.

39:40Mike Wright:Did you have hair at 30.8, John? No. No way. No? When was the actual - Like 25.

39:47Andy Holloway:0.0? 0.2. 0.2. Yeah, when was the shavening, though? Yeah, that's what he -

39:53Mike Wright:That was about 30. Oh, you held on for four or five years? I wore a hat for like four years straight.

39:59Andy Holloway:Been there, bro. Oh.

40:01Mike Wright:Well, I mean, who would wear a hat to cover your hair? Just be careful. I realize this from the pictures of some of these golfers on tour, and we've been golfing so much that we're developing dangerous tans, like troubling tans where it still looks like I'm wearing my watch. Look at this. But I'm not. This is ridiculous. Go to YouTube right now to see a V-neck undershirt, except it's not. I mean, Jason's ridiculous because yours is a little pink. You got a little burned. Yeah. But listen, my point was, if you have hair and you go golf and your face gets tanned, you're fine. You have hair. Yeah.

40:43Mike Wright:But if Josh goes out with a hat and golf, then the top of his head becomes like my sock line. And how do you go to a fine restaurant looking like you're wearing a white skull cap?

40:55Jason Moore:You got to put makeup on that dome.

40:58Mike Wright:Have somebody come out and just spray tan the top of your head? did you tan yourself some cleavage? I don't go back. Is that what you did?

41:09Jason Moore:I think you did. Yeah, it's like I got bazoongas over here. I need to wear like a just a deeper V and that'll look good. No, you can't. We'll get flagged.

41:25Mike Wright:Yeah, we need to stay on YouTube. Bazoongas.

41:29Andy Holloway:We're going to lose our monetization, Jason.

41:31Mike Wright:Oh, yeah. Don't demonetize us with your golf decisions. With your golf cleavage. How do golfers manage this? You just end up looking like you work on a farm or something?

41:41Andy Holloway:Yeah. Yeah, definitely. Or just go to the pool without your shirt. Get in the pool and balance it out a little bit. I would never.

41:49Mike Wright:If I'm in the pool, I'm not golfing. Let's just say this. So we're going to do some family trips here soon before the season starts. And you're like, I need to be able to take my shirt off. You're going to the Caribbean. Mm-hmm. Now, if you take your shirt off, then you'll get the tan in the spot that you need, but you want the tan beforehand. I need to pre-tan.

42:06Jason Moore:Yeah, that's what you need. Yeah, for sure.

42:08Mike Wright:Good luck. The problem is when you even out, does it make the - I need to like - Does it always stay even or do you have to cover your face?

42:16Jason Moore:I need to get a stencil and sunblock all my currently tan parts that go out there without sunblock everywhere else.

42:23Andy Holloway:I think as long as the disparity is not lobster and snow.

42:27Jason Moore:Yeah, the issue is really how disgustingly white my skin is where not tan. That's fair.

42:34Mike Wright:Terry McLaurin's 30.8 years old, which is, that's old.

42:41Andy Holloway:You know he's older, but that is shocking. It is shocking. He's almost 30.

42:46Mike Wright:He'll be 31 during the NFL season. This is why I honestly feel like Washington was in an impossible position last year. Because last year is when Terry McLaurin got paid and barely played. so before the season he holds out right and at that point he was 29.8 years old and they're like this dude is the he was the wide receiver fine he had over a thousand yards and 13 touchdowns he's the go-to receiver for jayden daniels you pay him he plays 10 games he's the wide receiver and the contract doesn't look as good right now no right no you paid for nothing we knew that when

43:25Jason Moore:It was in one of those tough situations where because you're on a rookie quarterback deal, you can't afford it because he is the only reliable target in your offense. You had to pay him, but they're just going to have to eat it. It's going to be a bad contract at the end of his career. The question is, can he bounce back? And he really needs to bounce back because when he held out to start last year, he started so slow. I mean, you're talking those first three games, he would have been on pace for 50 receptions and 800 yards. Just worthless, worthless production. And then he gets injured and was gone for most of the rest of the year when he comes back.

44:07Jason Moore:That was like Jaden Daniels wasn't really around for a lot of those games. So we just don't, we basically have a deleted season last year.

44:14Mike Wright:Yeah, but he didn't have enough time left in his career to delete a season. I know.

44:18Jason Moore:Now he's going to be playing at 31 this year. and that is usually something I don't like at wide receiver. I don't want a 31-year-old wide receiver, but I do think this could be a very good offense with Jaden Daniels, and you want to talk about an easy-to-predict high target market share. It doesn't get much easier than Terry McLaurin. There's just no competition here for other targets. So I don't see how it doesn't work unless he has really lost it.

44:49Mike Wright:I don't think he bounces back for multiple reasons. We want to paint the most rosy outlook to a transition to a different offensive coordinator and system in Washington, but I think that is a challenge we see sometimes work out and sometimes be a disaster on a yearly basis. I think it's a lot easier when you have a predictability factor of like, hey, Kellen Moore's played as offensive coordinator, so we know he's going to bring a system that works. We've never seen David Blau. beyond Terry McLaurin we don't have confidence in receiving weapons in Washington there were comments about Jaden Daniels quote having a long way to go to master the schematic changes there's just risk there's a lot of risk here I think altogether there's been talk of the tight ends being more involved so that would be Chica Conquo Mike's guy the senator

45:39Jason Moore:I am the senate

45:42Mike Wright:any day now I just think there's no chance that Terry McLaurin is anywhere close to what he was in 2024. Jaden Daniels. I think wide receiver 20 is about my – that's not a bounce back to me.

45:56Jason Moore:Going into last year, we had Terry McLaurin as a bust. It was pretty easy to see that he wasn't going to get 13 receiving touchdowns and he wasn't really a high-volume player. So we didn't expect it to be great last year. Obviously, with that year deleted and him now being two years older than his 13 touchdown pace. But I'm starting to actually worry more about the commander's offense because, you know, a minute ago I'm like, this should be a good offense. And it's because of Jaden Daniels. When you've got a good quarterback, you're just going to assume the offense should work. We all believe Jaden Daniels is a good quarterback.

46:29Jason Moore:He's going to figure it out and get stuff done. But when I just look at the entirety of the offense, the skill positions, this is like, oh, we're so excited for Bill because Ja 'Cory Krosky-Meritt has opportunity to be the guy. but maybe it's Rashad White. But maybe it's neither. Maybe neither one of those guys are that good. And we say Terry McLaurin should be okay because he's all alone. I am the second. What about that guy, Jay? It's going to be Ben Simmons. What about that guy? But, I mean, you know, they drafted Antonio Williams, who I think should be drafted for a lot of these reasons because they need other targets.

47:05Jason Moore:They lost Zach Ertz. This is just.

47:08Mike Wright:You don't like Traylon Burks or Van Jefferson or Damme Brown or Jalen Lane? Exactly.

47:12Andy Holloway:Ben Jefferson was getting some love.

47:17Mike Wright:That's a red alert. Yeah, it is. Hold on. Oh, I just hit a bear. Never mind.

47:23Andy Holloway:That's a bear alert.

47:26Jason Moore:You do sound an alarm when you see a bear. You do. And bear market is bad. That's true. But, yeah, I mean, maybe what we're saying here is less Terry McLaurin and more commander's offense.

47:37Mike Wright:I just have concerns because you have to have McLaurin, a year at 31, plus Jaden returning from injury, plus offensive coordinator change, plus offense succeeds with all these other pieces. I'm sorry. It's going to be you got your one year, and then I'm going to be against you again. And wide receiver 20 is fine. His ADP is, I think, interesting.

48:01Andy Holloway:Where is it at? So I'm seeing him right now in the back of the fifth. So he's right around Devontae Smith, which I don't know what's going on with the market. on Smith, how we all knew the trade was going to happen, and it felt like, okay, but we're being a little bit careful just in case it doesn't happen, because Smith in the fifth just seems outrageous to me.

48:25Mike Wright:But it rhymes. Oh, dang, it does. That's probably why he's there. It's pretty hot.

48:29Andy Holloway:Yeah. I took Smith in the fifth. We got a Buka after that, and then wide receiver-wise, it's like DJ Moore and Mike Evans are next. So I don't know. I don't hate it.

48:44Mike Wright:Yeah, I mean, there's obviously upside if Jaden can get it going in this offense and he's the only one that can catch the ball. But the other 30.8-year-old player, Mark Andrews. Doesn't that 30.8 feel more like 37.8? Yes.

49:05Andy Holloway:Him and Terry being the same age, that doesn't make sense.

49:09Mike Wright:so he went from the tight end five in 2024 on the back of 11 touchdowns to the tight end 19 last year points per game dropped 3.2 points per game down to 6.3 yet he had three top five finishes um which is as many as kyle pitts had but basically if he didn't score a touchdown he averaged four fancy points a game he would this is no longer the the the centerpiece of the offense. I saw Devontae's Walker chatter this morning. You've got Surratt and Jacoby Lane and Zay Flowers. And, I mean, no more Isaiah Likely. But what is the case for a 30-point-8-year-old Mark Andrews returning to form?

49:58Jason Moore:I think the case is rather easy to make, not to return to what he used to be when he was going to go out there and have over 1 ,000 receiving yards and be their primary receiver. He's a little old for that. But what you just said, Mike, him and Terry McLaurin are the exact same age. Let's just say they were born on the same day. I don't know their birthday, but they're basically in the same month. Now I've got to find out. Athletically, we're making McLaurin seem younger to ourselves as a group, as a people, and Andrews be older, which is so ironic because it's actually the opposite truth. They're really close together.

50:37Jason Moore:As to what positions you can play longer. Like wide receiver at 31, you're going to have a real hard time to be athletically able to separate and do all those things. At tight end, we've seen plenty of tight ends succeed at 32, 33, 34. Yeah, absolutely some of their best years. So I don't think he's aged out. That's one. Two, Isaiah Likely is gone. That is no target competition.

51:02Andy Holloway:They picked Andrews with the contract extension.

51:04Jason Moore:Yeah, they paid him, and then they let Likely walk three. Lamar missed a ton of games last year. He missed like four games and was injured in others. So the offense wasn't what we were used to seeing from Baltimore. I think if you have a healthy season from Lamar without Likely at age 31, you can definitely see a path for double-digit touchdowns here. I mean, that is how he succeeds for fantasy. see where he's being drafted right now is is he even being drafted like in uh tied in 14 14 so maybe um that this is the perfect example for me of like when I'm sacrificing a running back or wide receiver to get a Laporta when I can get Mark Andrews for absolutely nothing just that with my last pick of the draft I would rather take the shot of that you know wherever Laporta is going fifth sixth seventh round running back or wide receiver um you know but mike and i are not in

52:00Mike Wright:like you are statistically speaking yeah i mean i've got him not on my projections but this is the least favorite type of tight end i could ever draft which is just roll the dice on a touchdown i mean that's what kelsey's going to be this year i i do it's not most in the sense that there are younger tight ends that can develop into better players mark andrews is not getting better that's my that's my contention mark andrews has gone from 11.3 to 9.5 to 6.3 we can make all the reasons why that's happened we can say he hasn't aged out that's not true david njoku is not the same athletic player he was when he was younger he's 29 david njoku none of us are like pining for the return of david njoku's right like you kind of see it on the field like he still has something to bring to the table but not to my fantasy team personally that's like like I'd rather take a shot on any of the younger guys having a breakout campaign than just the touchdown roll the dice which maybe he is the best bet for a random touchdown that you can draft but would you rather have Kelsey starting every week or Andrews Jason I would that's that's tough I mean your numbers probably say Andrews um yeah I'm not sure I don't

53:10Jason Moore:have my uh rankings right in front of me right now I would put those guys very near each other I think I would rather take the shot of Andrews with Baltimore right now.

53:21Andy Holloway:The story makes sense of Mark Andrews being the number two target. I know it hasn't played out that way, and it feels like, especially when you compound two years ago, where we had the double goose gate to start the year for Mark Andrews, and it was like, what do we do with this? but there's a world where Mark Andrews has the second most targets on the Baltimore Ravens to

53:48Mike Wright:me I'm not projecting it that way but I can see it he was he's been at about 70 for two straight years I think but he has played all 17 weeks yeah it's uh that one's a tough one for me I think bounce backs anytime a player is getting older are tough for me in general yeah because you're asking them to do a couple of things you know you're asking them to kind of turn back the clock and things to work out and the team to plan around it and there are some signs that Andrews is obviously very important to them I think it'll be important to Lamar that he has the tight end in general that he can find in the red zone the snap counts for Andrews he's never played all the snaps I mean but it's been down in the 60 percent range does that change back up or Or do they add some more pieces because the depth chart for Baltimore, you just find the next guy up.

54:38Jason Moore:No, I'm very much hoping that the snap count is back to the 70s, where he was more dominant when he was out there, 75%, 72 % of snaps. I think that that's in the realm of possibility.

54:53Mike Wright:Doesn't it scare you that Durham Smythe is right there behind him? Correct. Wait, is Smythe there? The? The Smythe. The real one. Smythe has become a descriptor for any random white tight end that we don't know their name. Yeah. They're like, oh, it's Smythe.

55:09Andy Holloway:Oh, it's Smythe. Because Smythe kept stealing our touchdowns at one point. And we were like, oh, Smythe again? Get out of here, Smythe. Don't do it, Smythe.

55:18Mike Wright:So is that a bet? Would you think bounce back, Jay, for you?

55:24Andy Holloway:Bounce back from tight end 19 to being much closer to a top 12.

55:29Jason Moore:I do think he bounces back to being a top 12 tight end. I think he will finish the season inside the top 12.

55:35Mike Wright:We'll see what Declan Doyle, new offensive coordinator for Baltimore, can do this year too. Real quick, Saquon Barkley. I just want us to weigh in. I find myself wanting to answer in the affirmative. As do I. In the bounce back category. I really see a lot of reasons why he could be one of the best values in the draft. People would like to move on from Saquon. It was a really inefficient year. Not exposed. You know, the explosive plays weren't there going in the middle of the second round. Like it's rare when you can draft a running back in the middle of the second round and you can easily see an argument why they finished in the top five.

56:11Mike Wright:And I still see that with Saquon. Last year, it was like we knew the carries had piled up. We knew the playoffs had piled up. He had 388 opportunities. And we said, look, he's not going to be number one again. but the pendulum has swung to a degree now where yes the efficiency went down the touchdowns were cut in half but I still think this is the guy that's going to get the ball almost every play and they have an offensive line that we believe in a defense that we believe in to me he he seems like an RB 5-6 candidate yeah I mean certainly the way that it bounces back is

56:46Jason Moore:is easy right he's a great guy on a great running back on a good offense just a great guy You also lose a lot of target share here with A.J. Brown being gone. And we've seen in the past that when teams have to fill the void of lost target share, it often ups some targets to the running back position. And Saquon can obviously catch the ball. I do find myself a little bit more fearful and less bullish on him simply because at 30 years old, coming off of four straight seasons of 300 plus opportunities it's it just can't last forever and but is he more derrick yeah i mean that that's true because i like i i have no problem with that like i am more i am less skeptical of derrick henry falling off than i am of i mean he's seven months younger than than cmc actually he's more than that nine months younger Yeah.

57:43Jason Moore:Well, to be fair, I'm equally terrified with CMC. You got to draft him at five, though. Yeah. I mean, where Saquon's being drafted right now, I mean, if he plays a full season, he should finish as a running back one.

58:00Mike Wright:So you're worried about injury?

58:01Jason Moore:Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he's dealt with injuries. I mean, him and CMC have both had plenty of injuries throughout their career. They're both around 30 years old, coming off massive workloads. It's just tough to bet on those guys. How old is Henry now? Henry's three. Immortal. Three? I mean, he's so old.

58:22Mike Wright:Did you answer how old he is with the word immortal? I did. That is correct. He's 32.4 years old. So I just wanted to paint like a little, let's say, like you could easily in a draft go Puka, Saquon, or you go CMC Drake London? Which of those combos would you rather have? Puka-Saquon. Yeah, I think the Puka one.

58:55Andy Holloway:Inside the five, the work was still there. He had 17 carries inside the five two years ago. That turned into four touchdowns. 13 carries inside the five this year. Only one. That's pretty wild. that I know they have the push and everything, but it's still Saquon Barkley getting one rushing touchdown inside the five. And from four to one doesn't sound like a huge difference, but give Saquon Barkley three more rushing touchdowns. No, he's at 10, and you feel much different about him.

59:29Mike Wright:All right, last bounce back I have to ask you guys real quickly. It's the Falcon. Obviously, last year was a struggle. Does Falcon bounce back? You have to have done it, though. we all know that but was there before that oh was there an up year i mean i think everyone would agree here in the office that it was a down year relative to the other ducers yes but not relative to himself that's just the you're saying you can't bounce back to something you've never been

59:53Andy Holloway:you know like how we're you have the guys where it's like how did how did he get back in after that concussion test and you're like well maybe he's concussion baseline yeah his baseline he's Kind of just a diddy. Yeah. Okay. So I'm just saying. That really went to 11.

1:00:09Jason Moore:You can't say Caleb Johnson can bounce back. Right. Thank you, Jason. It's just so terrible. He's the Caleb Johnson. He is the Caleb Johnson of this team. Which we had high hopes. My God. We had high hopes with the Falcon. High hopes with the Falcon. I love Caleb Johnson. And we really thought we were doing something good when we hired him. Okay. You know, someday.

1:00:28Mike Wright:See, we always go right over the line where people are like, uh-oh. Now I got to go ask for the actual health and wellness of the Falcon. But no bounce back for any of us. We're not voting bounce back there. Just kind of the same.

1:00:40Jason Moore:I'm voting step forward. One step forward. One step forward. Two steps back.

1:00:46Mike Wright:Thank you for joining us. We'll be back with another show on Thursday. Too hot to handle. And we got a mock draft episode coming up as well.

1:00:54Jason Moore:Goodbye. Goodbye. much. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FF Ballers.

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