Fantasy Football - Bust & Value Picks for 2026! - Podcast for 8/20

10:27Jason Moore:winner for you for me it's caleb douglas and it's funny because recently i've made a lot of uh comments we all have about the fact that when you draft, and I don't mean rookie year playing them, I'm just saying at our fantasy football draft, when you draft wide receivers who weren't drafted in the first round, it is universally usually a bad pick. The reason why is because even day two picks average sub-50 % snaps, and that's really genuinely what it comes down to is, are you on the field week one? If you're not on the field week one, it's a bad draft pick. You don't need to hold on to a rookie wide receiver who might develop later in the year you don't need that the first few weeks but the reason why Caleb Douglas might break the mold I mean we always talk about this right even if it's an 80 percent 80 percent of the time they bust that would mean 20 percent of the time it works out and the reason that I think Caleb Douglas is maybe able to break the mold is because he will be on the field.

11:28Jason Moore:From week one, I expect him to be playing pretty much 100 % of the wide receiver snaps. He played every snap with Malik Willis in preseason. You've seen enough Malik Washington to know that he's just not that good. Not good enough to produce? Exactly. He's fine. He's a good NFL wide receiver. He should be on an NFL team. But for fantasy football, he is not good enough to go out there and average 70 yards a game. and get a ton of touchdowns. I think he's irrelevant for fantasy football personally, so I want to take the shot of the unknown of Caleb Douglas, a guy if he was the third-round pick, 75th overall.

12:07Jason Moore:He's also been making a lot of noise consistently. The entire offseason, they've been saying Caleb Douglas has looked really good.

12:16Mike Wright:I'm with you. I think we've seen enough Malik Washington to feel a little bit capped on what the production can be. I like Malik Willis. I think he's a good quarterback. I think we've really heard no negative news about Malik Willis during this offseason. Can't say the same for Tua, Tunga Bailoa, or Kyler Murray. Malik has had some highlight plays in training camp, and I think Caleb Douglas is the highest upside opportunity and probably one where we have been here before. We completely, as fantasy players, dismissed Jalen Waddle. Now, Waddle was a higher draft capital player, so it still happened, though.

12:51Mike Wright:People just didn't believe that the team can have a productive player. And to broaden the conversation, I know we like Greg Dulcich to be a target in the offense, but Greg Dulcich is not the, he's not Brock Bowers. He's not Trey McBride. He's not a player that, you know, like is going to have a hundred receptions on this team. Bowers and McBride can do that. Dulcich can be a higher value sleeper tight end. But at the end of the day, I think you can look at this team and say, wow, If they outperform what our expectations are on offense, who would be the beneficiary to me? I like Caleb Douglas.

13:28Jason Moore:Yeah, his production profile was pretty good. His physical attributes are great. I mean, this is a player who's 6 '4", 206 pounds, ran a 4 '3", 940, which is 91st percentile for weight-adjusted speed score. He's been making plays. I mean, to be honest, I don't think it's going to be anybody. I think it will be no one. In the last round, you're taking wild shots, and I talked about this on the Tips and Tricks episode yesterday. Be willing to move on right off the bat. If he's out there for 62 % of the snaps week one, get rid of him. But I do think there's a chance he's out there for 100 % of wide receiver snaps from the get-go.

14:09Andy Holloway:I'm on the Malik Washington side. He's been the name that has popped up the most to me while I've been following the beat reporters. and it's been pretty positive news. Like, generally speaking, I do agree, J. Like, the process of, okay, he's a – Malik was a six-round pick. We're going into year three. He's been –

14:33Mike Wright:You think a Malik-to-Malik thing's going on this year then?

14:35Andy Holloway:Hey, it doesn't hurt. No. It doesn't hurt. We can Malik throw down. Hey, he's got my name. Target. Like, and Washington is, you know, as a rookie, 220 yards. Then last year, 317 yards. he was buried on a depth chart with two

14:53Mike Wright:superstars.

14:54Andy Holloway:I don't completely blame him for not being able to break into that rotation at all. We had last year, I'm sorry, three years ago, Parker Washington 132 yards. Parker Washington year two, 390 yards. Now Parker Washington's the hotness. It's not impossible. It's not probable at all but i'll i'll put my bet on the third year veteran it was a tough decision

15:23Mike Wright:for me between those two and and i will say the underdog in this situation unfortunately you know the guy with maybe the most talent oh yeah we're just with chris bell chris bell is a he was a french first round pick tore his acl drops to the third round but from a talent perspective right now their coaches say he's a long way away.

15:43Jason Moore:That would be next year. In a dynasty league after the draft, I had Chris Bell ranked ahead of Caleb Douglas because long term I think he is the more talented player coming out of college. In redrafts when you're at your draft right now, Chris Bell's, yeah, that's an ominous bell. That's what we need right now. And I would say that he's completely undraftable.

16:07Mike Wright:That was Leader of the Pack, presented by PetSmart. Visit your local PetSmart store or go to PetSmart.com today. PetSmart, anything for pets.

16:17Jason Moore:News and notes from around the league.

16:21Mike Wright:Well, the Colts tight end Tyler Warren suffered a groin injury. We talked about it earlier. Yeah, that is the I mean, not all groins are equal, Mike. No. No, they are not. I mean, those are big boys.

16:39Jason Moore:right now they're saying there's no just shut it down please yeah right now they're saying there's no worries for week one of the regular season um and we had some weird reporting because it was

16:48Mike Wright:like adductor two to three weeks and then it circled back to one week with a groin those are connected probably i don't know uh makai lemon doctor is connected to the abductor right i don't

16:59Andy Holloway:know there's a machine that does that thing finally good news in the news section yeah makai lemon is

17:04Mike Wright:returning to practice on Thursday.

17:06Jason Moore:Hey, all right. Don't pull a Jordan Tyson. He's coming back from a hamstring. Stay on the field. Yeah, that's tough always. I got a snake, man.

17:15Mike Wright:The snake himself. I don't know how I feel about that anymore. I just don't. It's just not. Okay. Okay. Mackay Lemon's press conference lives forever. I don't have any other big-time news. Was there anything that, like, I will say this. the commentary right now let's talk Giants running back room for a second um yeah we we brought up the Najee Harris signing uh which you know was easier for me to dismiss without seeing any film of Najee Harris recovering from this injury he looked good in the limited amount of film we had and my little individual drills yeah his cuts were nice and Mike brought up the missed block by tyrone tracy jr was significant and then more news around new york came out that like dip it shed a different light on tyrone tracy when he missed the block allowed their future basically their franchise jackson dart get blown up and naji you mentioned being a very good pass blocker but the the whole point of this that i want to bring up that we didn't discuss was and i know you adjusted him down but the possibility that really cam scadaboo doesn't maybe play as much as we think he will for the first half of this year in terms of volume.

18:29Andy Holloway:Yeah, and I would say these are not – I'm not setting off panic alarms by any stretch, but you've got to pay attention. This is a new variable. We know that it's being reported by Jordan Renan that it's a veteran minimum deal. There's no guarantees. So this could be – Najee's a camp body. It could be, yeah. And then he gets cut, and then – with it but there i mean that's old there's smoke when you have a guy coming off an injury you have a player with one of the biggest pass block whiffs we have witnessed in the preseason oh man it was bad it's just it's something to pay attention to all right that'll do it for news we will take a break and uh we've got some balkyle saying the naji's workout was set up even before the tracy

19:17Mike Wright:non-block yeah i mean that lends itself even more towards like just what what involvement will

19:22Jason Moore:scataboo have tracy singletary and depth i mean you just you need it i want as a an absolute lover of cam scataboo's play style film history everything i want to be so in like coming into this off season i was like he's probably gonna be my guy and i i just have bad vibes there i don't love i i'm not quick to pull the trigger right now i think it might be a slow start

19:48Mike Wright:to the we're gonna continue the conversation here because we get to talk about this team

19:52Andy Holloway:in a moment my last point on it is again i i'm just trying to you know think out loud and not i don't want to be an alarmist or panic but it's just like we've seen this before we've seen day three running backs come in and have success in fantasy football we love these players and then someone new comes in and they're gone. And it doesn't make sense. We just had the Damian Pierce year where he comes in, he's pretty solid for fantasy football, and you think, well, he's got to be the guy moving to next year. Absolutely not. They just got rid of him. Well, it doesn't help that there's a change in.

20:32Andy Holloway:That's what I'm saying. Like, you have a – like, Scat is not Harbaugh's guy.

20:36Mike Wright:Like, there's a turd at offensive coordinator. Yeah. But we can just move on because we're going to talk about this team. Okay.

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22:04Mike Wright:We want to make sure that I'm the one that gets the player, not another player manager in our league. So trade offers, when you're on the go, all the news that's breaking so you don't make a mistake. And my favorite thing, maybe I'll mention it. Look, you're sitting and you have a quiet moment somewhere out and about. You want to jump in the UDK. We got the player profiles. You can watch all of those in there with T-Mobile. You can jump in on the player projections and our stat projections and all the 130 ,000 words of content. Again, T-Mobile making that easy to do. Every bit of news. Things are changing all the time.

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23:05All right.

23:06Mike Wright:We have individual picks for both the bust and value segments today. So lots to talk about, to debate, to discuss, and to, well, in the bust case, be fearful of. Let's get into it.

23:22Mike Wright:BUS.

23:26Mike Wright:Busts. All right. Well, these guys are not guaranteed to fail. We have consensus busts in the Ultimate Draft Kit, but we are kind of looking at situations we think are high risk, maybe look really good from the outside, but kind of buyer beware situations. And unfortunately, I know that this name is not agreed upon here. No, no. We have a difference of opinion, and it's not really a different opinion at all about the player, the talent, the ability of them. It is a concern with the – I mean, you love Cam Scadaboo, but you have concerns about the situation, the vibes.

24:06Jason Moore:Yeah, the vibes aren't great in New York, and that makes sense with Matt Nagy there.

24:10Mike Wright:Yeah, and so my bust pick, the one that I am not – like if I took this player in the draft, I know it's a good value, and you can take the shot on the first couple weeks. I don't think that's a problem. It's not like you're overpaying. But you might not get a starting quarterback out of it. My best pick, unfortunately, regrettably, is Jackson Dart, Jason's fifth overall quarterback. In four-point passing touchdowns. I know. People hate it. Well, the people want to see Jackson Dart and the New York Giants have success. And with Harbaugh's arrival, I thought it was on the way. When Greg Roman and Matt Nagy pulled up in the car behind, in the Uber.

24:50Mike Wright:Someone need an offense to fix?

24:52Andy Holloway:We're here.

24:53Mike Wright:In the Uber pool.

24:54Jason Moore:When Cliff Kingsbury was the offensive coordinator, if you don't remember, Cliff Kingsbury basically, the report was Cliff Kingsbury signing to be the offensive coordinator for the New York Giants. It was like, oh, baby. And then it was like, no, just kidding. Nagy.

25:10Mike Wright:So I don't like the vibes, but that's like, you know, it's Matt Nagy's history, Greg Roman, and the changing offense. I don't like that. But here's what I do not believe is compatible for Jackson Dart. I do not believe you can simultaneously run the way Jason wants him to run and play enough football to make you happy in fantasy. He had 10 games last year. He went to the medical tent in five of those 10 games. He has already gone to the medical tent in one game. You cannot be in a position where at any moment your starting quarterback runs with such reckless abandon, finishes runs with reckless abandon, and then in press conferences tells them that's just who I am.

25:56Mike Wright:If you're not built like Cam Newton, I have concerns.

25:59Andy Holloway:Maybe he's got like a cappuccino machine in there or something.

26:02Mike Wright:He loves the blue team. In the blue team. He's just a little pick-me-up. I think you either see a fundamental change in the amount that he runs, which is very, very possible, I think, with these old heads as head coach and offensive coordinator. I think you could see a change in offensive philosophy that is concerning and is going to require Dart to do some things we didn't get to see evidence of last year, which was be under center more often. Make the right read. Don't run the football. And so I think there's a lot of excitement. I understand that he represents high rushing upside, but I do believe that he will be hurt if he does what he's been doing.

26:40Mike Wright:And I think Harbaugh is the kind of guy that's going to reign that in a little bit for the sake of his team having a quarterback that is healthy. And, um, you know, it's a concern. If you look at last year, he was on fire to begin the season. first seven starts 23.3 fantasy points per game 3.1 design runs per game let's go oh wait you got concussed you come back you have another five game span all of a sudden you got 1.4 design runs per game that's a big difference you go down to 16.6 fantasy points if i had to guess where he ends up this year it's more in that range it's 16 to 18 fantasy points a game i don't think the upside is as high as Jason does because I think that there's something that's going to go wrong and I won't get into just how horrible Matt Nagy is but yes I will um Brian Dable by the way after he was fired the offensive system changed I love Brian Dable I think it's one of the reasons I've been in on the Titans making a progression forward Brian Dable was the key to some of what Jackson Dart was having success with Matt Nagy man he does not press the easy button in the modern NFL second lowest motion rate of any play caller third lowest play action drop back rate since 2021 so we're not going to pretend to run right let's not do that let's not give an easy opportunity for your quarterback let's just do what no one else is doing anymore and put him in behind center they ran a ton of no huddle last year i think dart was great with that was darts like metrics

28:23Andy Holloway:and stuff, when they were going no huddle and hurrying up and playing some street ball, his numbers were elite.

28:30Jason Moore:He was pretty much one of the best in the league in no huddle and one of the worst in the league in not no huddle.

28:35Mike Wright:And I will say this, you're going to, here's the last piece of the puzzle. We are not huddling. The last piece of the puzzle is kind of wild, and I'm going to paint the picture for you. You're going to start with some matchups that are okay. They're favored in three of the first six. They have the Rams in week two in LA. that's a tough one. But that's your acclimation to the new system. So how quickly does that happen? You go from week seven on, I don't know if there's a worse schedule. It's a gauntlet. You're in Houston. You're in Philadelphia. You're in Seattle. You're in Detroit.

29:12Jason Moore:Detroit's defense should be injured by that point in the year. I mean, you are favored.

29:16Mike Wright:They are favored in two of their final, what is that? the rest of the season, the final 10 games. I said the first six. So the final 11 games, they're favored in two. They got to play Cleveland. They got to play Jacksonville. They got to play San Francisco. I don't know. I am concerned with the hype. I think it's gotten out of control because we want it to happen. There are players that we just want to work. I think Travion's a guy we all want to work. I don't know if there's a better person in the NFL than Travion Henderson. If you've listened to his interviews or a more dedicated player. Just a stand-up guy.

29:50Mike Wright:We want the faces of the NFL to be the faces of the NFL, and I just don't know if it's going to be easy.

29:56Jason Moore:Calling this a bust pick is very realistic, I think. I mean, the idea that Jackson – first of all, all the reports out of camp have been that the offense has sucked. That's a good point. Everything has been like they don't have it together. Even Matt Nagy came out and said, like, Jackson Dart's so talented, but he's really struggling. It's like, well, it's your fault. But no, I have like no doubt that Jackson Dart can bust and be terrible this year. I'm really in on Jackson Dart because I think should it work, he is, you know, if he's in the ninth round where I've seen him in plenty of drafts, should it work?

30:36Jason Moore:He's one of only three quarterbacks in the league that I think can easily rush for over 700 yards. He's he's on a 17 game pace of about 700 yards last year in his rookie season. it's him Jaden Daniels Lamar Jackson that's it you know and if you look at finish your thought

30:51Mike Wright:and then we have to hit the stupid breaking news okay all right if you do look I know it's like

30:55Jason Moore:the injury risk is out there and he's not built like Josh Allen but you look at Lamar Jackson Jaden Daniels and Jackson Dart and you got 6 '4 210 and Jaden Daniels 210 pounds 6 '2 205 and Lamar Jackson 6 '2 223 for Jackson Dart so I do think he can everybody can get injured Lamar's been injured daniels has been injured i am in on taking this shot what was his height weight 6223 for jackson dart so this is not bad um did he seem that big he didn't seem that i mean he didn't seem that big but i don't know people's weight in person i don't know but i i like the upside i certainly could never no one could argue that like he is as unguaranteed a success as possible

31:42Mike Wright:I'm just afraid you can't draft him and start him and be guaranteed to have a starter and then you gotta figure it out which maybe that's worth it in the 9th I like him but

31:51Jason Moore:at the end of the year it's very easy that this could be like oh yeah he failed

31:56Mike Wright:I won't hit the breaking news button but I will tell you that Sam Laporta is now injured Jason cover your ears Sam Laporta is out with a hip injury

32:04Jason Moore:my all time favorite player

32:06Mike Wright:well Gino

32:07Jason Moore:Well, my second all-time pick.

32:09Mike Wright:Dan Campbell says he's not sure if the injury will go into the regular season.

32:14Jason Moore:Man. So, not a growing. Dude, Jameson Williams. You guys don't.

32:21Mike Wright:I know. Don't get me started on how much I want to. I'll let the people know. He's not a my guy. Because you didn't allow yourself. I would never do double lion, same exact my guy, for example.

32:32Jason Moore:Well, yours works better. kind of i mean the first i mean he was the first half of the season last year was so bad that most people like moved on but he finished pretty darn good he when laporta went down when when laporta went down he was unbelievable and if laporta starts the season on the bench this is an offense you want pieces of i'm i i find myself way more like andy this year on on jameson williams i i

32:56Andy Holloway:want jameson williams on my team he finished the top 10 famous oh yeah also and you're like me first half yeah i mean he he finished in the top 10 man if the first half sucked that means that he's winning championships i mean it's just like the truth it was the change of coaching yeah i

33:12Mike Wright:mean it was when they did the offensive coordinator change and laporta combined but um i think if you

33:17Jason Moore:were someone that had drafted him i mean up through week eight you had what two playable games sure so yeah i'm just saying that you're you're definitely helping people win for yeah they They helped whoever's team they were on at the end of the year. Yes. That was like Chase Brown. You felt like you took a giant L on a My Guy last year because for the first six weeks, it was like, oh, man, what a loser. And then he was unbelievable to help people win. I call that a win.

33:41Mike Wright:I didn't realize that. I thought you moved off this bus pick. I did not know that you went forward with it.

33:45Jason Moore:No, no, no, no. I very much. It's funny because. Let's make a trade on the show then. We might. I'm going to go make an offer. Yeah.

33:52Mike Wright:Go on. Share your bust.

33:54Jason Moore:Okay. So this bus pick was in there for. Don't share your bust. But go on. this pick was in here for a couple weeks now. And then we got news that I think made everybody think I was going to change my bus pick. I did. You did. Andy did. Then Kyle was giving me other options. I was like, what? So Kyle wanted you to do it too? Well, he just thought I would. And I was like, no, I don't want to change. I completely still believe this, and I'll explain my rationale here. My bus pick this year is Travis H. Ann Jr., running back for the New Orleans Saints. The artist formerly known as Travis Etienne.

34:27Jason Moore:Yes, if you are, you know, we know from the comments.

34:30Mike Wright:Oh my gosh, that's what I'm going to call him from now on. The artist formerly known as Travis Etienne. There you go. Full time. That's fine.

34:35Jason Moore:He wants to be A-chan. Yeah, so if you are coming back to fantasy football and you're like, why are you saying his name wrong? That's the French Creole pronunciation that he prefers. The commentators in the Hall of Fame game basically said, we're going to call him that this year. So as the season goes on, you'll hear Travis A-chan Jr. It stinks only because there's an A-chan. like if it was someone else that was unique you'd be like but anyways so let me read you a slack

35:00Mike Wright:channel message that we sent last night i said uh we were like mike's like hey are you still sticking with travis hn jr is your bust and i said i wonder if he'll change that and then you got

35:10Jason Moore:tagged and you said yes i am well i was saying yes to mike's the first question of are you still sticking with him yes i am so i i see how you see it both ways but here's the thing about a about the artist formerly known as Travis Etienne. There are three reasons why I don't like him as a pick where he's going right now. One is the change in the offensive expectation, right? He was on the Jags last year, which was a top offense, and he's switching to the Saints, which hopefully can be a better offense, but they're obviously a much worse offense last year than they were. And as far as the offensive line, it's a downgrade on the offensive line.

35:48Jason Moore:Second is the way he scored fantasy points last year. And then there are some specifics on the tips and tricks we brought up yesterday that you brought up, Mike, that really speak against Travis Etienne this year. Yeah. Okay, so here's the thing. The first point. Offer sent. Oh, you made me a live offer? No, don't worry about it. You're talking. Okay. How he scored last year, he's not ever been a very efficient backer. I don't think he's been okay for fantasy. He's scored a lot of touchdowns. But he hasn't really been a very efficient back. And inside the red zone, he was downright horrific. Inside the 10-yard line and inside the 5-yard line last year, 10-zone attempts, which these are money in fantasy.

36:40Jason Moore:He had 26 carries inside the 10. That turned into four touchdowns, a 15 % rate. That is abysmal. He had 12 of those 26 inside the five, and those turned into two touchdowns. The only running backs last year that were worse in those metrics were, weirdly, Saquon Barkley and Woody Marks. He was not good. Where his touchdowns came from were receiving touchdowns. He had six receiving touchdowns, and yet he only caught 36 passes. How rare is that? He joined 2014 Ahmad Bradshaw and 2018 Cream Hunt as the only running backs over the last 25 years with six or more touchdowns on less than 40 receptions.

37:26Jason Moore:43 % of his fantasy points came from those touchdowns. That is not repeatable. Five of those receiving touchdowns were inside the red zone. I mean, how rare is that? Well, he had zero receiving touchdowns inside the red zone for his entire career. So now you've got a guy who kind of was propped up from rare touchdowns that aren't very repeatable, wasn't efficient on the ground. He's changing teams to a worse team. And my biggest argument against him for most of this offseason has been, I'm sorry, but Alvin Kamara is going to be involved. But Jason, Alvin Kamara is injured. Yeah, he is. At most, Alvin Kamara at this point in the timeline says he could be ready week one.

38:10Jason Moore:But let's say he misses the first two weeks of the season. okay he's not back till week three when he gets back he will be eating into the pass catching work of Travis H.A. Jr. which is where he made his fantasy points last year those first two weeks that he might be alone you want to be on the road against the Detroit Lions who have when they're healthy one of the best run defenses in the league or do you want to be on the road against the Baltimore Ravens both games you are more than touchdown underdogs that's not good for running

38:39Mike Wright:Romare is going to be eating Jell-O at the retirement home in week two.

38:43Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, I'm just saying, by the time you get to any good schedule. So early underdogs, that was a tip and trick from Mike yesterday. When you're an early underdog on a bad team, it doesn't usually work for fantasy. I think that how he scored fantasy points was not great.

38:58Mike Wright:There's no reason for him to be on your team. I sent you a trade.

39:01Jason Moore:Well, I think he's going to be great. So we'll see if the value matters.

39:06Mike Wright:Nope, nope, the rubber meets the road right here. Look, I don't think you can make an argument that anything you said was incorrect. I think the only argument that I have is the same sort of argument I feel towards Kenneth Walker. The market and the teams that I trust, the play caller that I love, they put their money where their mouth was. Four-year,$52 million deal. Ken Walker has a ton of crappy efficiency metrics in different areas. This dude dances behind the line of scrimmage and gets caught back there. I just love the fact that they decided to make him their franchise identity at running back.

39:43Mike Wright:So I'm in on that.

39:44Jason Moore:I do love that. And I love Kellen Moore offenses, especially for quarterbacks and wide receivers. One of the weird things about Kellen Moore's offense, though, they have routinely ranked among the bottom of running back target shares over the last four years. 26th, 26th, 20th, and 27th. So it's like, and honestly, that's smart. That's wise. throwing to a running back is less efficient than throwing to a wide receiver or a tight end, just statistically speaking. Have a fast pace of play. Like if I was an offensive coordinator, have a fast pace play. Throw to your wide receivers as much as you can.

40:17Jason Moore:That's how I play, and that's how Kellen Moore plays. But yeah, I do love the investment, and I will say there is another metric of a certain barometer of money given to running backs in the offseason where if you are over it, you usually work. and the artist formerly known as Travis Etienne is over that mark. Rumbelaya. Yeah, you've got both sides of it. I'm more weary, and I will look at the trade offer.

40:43Mike Wright:It means that you're convicted about it if Kamara goes out and you still feel like – I mean, I got a trade offer from you yesterday.

40:50Jason Moore:Was it good? I don't remember.

40:51Mike Wright:Oh, you don't remember the offer? Oh, no, that was good. Why didn't you accept it? That was for this dude. Yeah, but it wasn't a good offer. It was, too. I ran like five mock drafts, dude. You hate him. I hate him if I don't take your crappy offer Alright Chuba Hubbard Mike That's your boss?

41:08Jason Moore:He says I made a crappy offer His offer was the 3-0-1 In our league for Travis H.A. 3-0-1 in a three keeper league That's basically the sixth rounder A sixth rounder for me He's going in the fourth So no I will decline

41:24Mike Wright:I have run a tremendous amount So Bashaw Tootin goes around I mean is Bashaw Tootin versus Travis Achan?

41:32Jason Moore:Bashaw Tootin will not be there at the 301.

41:34Mike Wright:Well Darian Price will be? No he won't. Oh okay. I mean I know what you're saying but I know our league and how we

41:42Jason Moore:I mean you know how we draft. Bashaw Tootin and the running backs go up in our league of record. I have taken.

41:47Andy Holloway:You love Bashaw. I've taken every opportunity that has ever been presented in front of me to either dump on or bet against Travis Achan Jr. to the point of just a truly horrific outcome last year. Look, if you recall, there were co-starters on the Jacksonville Jaguars last year, and we were all taking sides. And then they traded one of the guys to be a backup in Philadelphia. I forgot. And then it really worked out for Travis. But I'm with Andy on the volume. I think the volume will make him okay. And I like the Saints offense. So I don't think that he's a special player at the running back position, but I think he will end up being okay.

42:32Andy Holloway:My bus pick here, currently running back 28 going in the seventh round. So this isn't like a huge investment, but I'm just putting the foot down. I'm putting the flag in the ground. It's Chuba Hubbard. I want absolutely nothing to do with him. He is a full fade for me at this point with what's going on in Carolina. And recalling last year, weeks one through four, he was getting an elite work percentage. He was at 29, the work percentage, which is targets and attempts. He was at 29%. 30 % is elite. So the volume was completely there. In that time period, I will say, he did not force a single missed tackle as a runner.

43:15Andy Holloway:So this is a guy that's just voluming his way to fantasy value. then he loses his job to Rico Dowdle uh he had no runs of 15 or more yards last year like his efficiency metrics are they're red he had one total carry inside the five because they just they didn't trust him they wanted that job went to Rico Dowdle and you know we've we've also seen Jonathan Brooks I struggle with Brooks's ADP what is going on because he is right next to Chuba Hubbard in ADP. I've seen leagues where Brooks gets drafted in front of Hubbard, but it's just pointing out that Chuba's at the tail end of the dead zone for running backs, which Jay, you talked about.

44:00Andy Holloway:You're at the end, man. This is the deadest of the dead zone. I want nothing to do with that situation. And if you remember, somehow the Panthers, despite being under 500, they were first place so they get a first place schedule warren sharp has them ranked as the third hardest schedule for 2026 and to piggyback on my tip yesterday of of teams that start as uh dogs well three of the first four games they are underdogs they are underdogs on the road against atlanta that's that's how down bad the carolina panthers are at this moment so people are drafting Chuba and I just want absolutely nothing to do with it.

44:41Mike Wright:Yeah, we had the Jonathan Brooks conversations earlier too and we have all of our bus picks, our consensus bus picks in the UDKUltimateDraftKit.com if you want to get in on that before your draft. We'll take a break and we'll come back with value picks.

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46:04Andy Holloway:values

46:09Mike Wright:all right value picks um i'm gonna take a layup here i think genuinely all three of our value

46:16Jason Moore:picks are fan freaking tastic i think they're layups and they're mispriced players in fantasy football i really do it's chris godwin chris godwin for the tampa bay buccaneers

46:30Mike Wright:Abuka, whether he's there or not, I don't like that he's dealing with the toe injury. That's going to add to the equation in terms of like, Chris Godwin is the exact kind of name that never moves up, no matter how much you talk about him, has a history of productivity, will be sneaky good from a PPR perspective. I mean, we talk about Keenan Allen leading the Chargers and receptions at 34 years old last year. Chris Godwin has a connection with Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield is back and is healthy. You have a lot of question marks with Hurst, McMillan, Tess Johnson. None of those guys' profile is high volume.

47:04Jason Moore:What's your face here, Jay? Dude.

47:06Mike Wright:But Emeka Abuka being hurt doesn't really even bother me. I like Godwin. Godwin on ESPN?

47:11Jason Moore:He's in the 13th round. 13.04 in full PPR. What are we doing?

47:18Mike Wright:Yeah. To me, it's just a layup situation. He was not one of the names I mentioned in the 10 oldest players, right? I mean, you have a – He's close. He feels older. He's 30 years old, and yet he signed a three-year extension last March. I mean, this team has him as part of the plans. You know, he dealt with injuries. Injuries are going to be a concern for players that get older, and especially at wide receivers, but he's not in that group yet. When he came back, he had some high-target finishes. To me, this is just like most of the time I say you want to take high upside shots at the back of your draft.

47:52Mike Wright:this is one of those stabilizer players that I think you can start any week you need to might start more often than you think and has been a standout at OTA so there's really been no concerns around Godwin but not enough publicity so to me my value pick is Chris Godwin

48:13Andy Holloway:I'm I'm in I think Chris Godwin is a solid pick for there's a I think he has a lot going for him And you can even say Abuka is the, he's the, we get to the end of the year, Abuka's clearly the number one. Okay, fine. Like, Baker Mayfield can give you enough production that you have two contributors in the receiving game. Like, and of the other players, yeah, but your chips have to go to Chris Godwin.

48:45Jason Moore:Godwin does not need Emeka Abuka to be injured to be good at all. He's been good with Mike Evans on the field, and Mike Evans is gone. I mean, where he's going right now, like, I totally understand when you're older, you don't have the upside of being like, oh, this guy could be a top seven wide receiver in fantasy. But, like, here's what he could be. An absolute every single week must-start wide receiver two type of player. And that is so valuable in fantasy, and to be basically a free square ADP-wise. I can't believe that ESPN ADP. 13th round?

49:22Mike Wright:Yeah, I mean, I think it's just one of those. People are going to take Diggs ahead of him in drafts. People are going to take Keenan Allen ahead of him in some drafts. That's going to happen because Chris Godwin is just quietly, quietly there.

49:38Jason Moore:He was injured last year, and I think that's a big part of it. People just think he's injured and done. And we're tired of it. But genuinely. It is two years in a row that he played seven and nine games. Camp Reports have said not just that he's been good, but that his explosion is back. And he's just really explosive.

49:53Mike Wright:Even if you get half a year with Chris Godwin for that price, I don't care. That's fine.

49:57Jason Moore:My value is so weirdly underpriced. If I describe the player before telling you the player, it makes no sense. What if I had a third-year quarterback who has literally scored the fourth most fantasy points through two years ever? last year he led the league in passing attempts and this year he's got all of his wide receivers back including a high drafted wide receiver two last year who's been making buzz but then they trade for a star wide receiver to add to the court and his first year was the quarterback six his second i'm sorry the quarterback seven the second year he was quarterback six and so this now all of that coming together he's being drafted at quarterback 15 what bo nicks bo nicks is boom shakalaka i mean why is he being drafted over double the amount of positions that he's ever finished like he's never finished half as bad as quarterback 15 they add jalen waddle they're on a

50:59Mike Wright:good offense but jason yes he got hurt last year and their schedule their schedule's really crappy

51:06Jason Moore:So a crappy schedule is absolutely true in the sense of difficulty, but it isn't necessarily a bad schedule if he's good.

51:16Mike Wright:He also sometimes seems drunk. What? He does.

51:20Jason Moore:When he's outside the pocket, sometimes he seems like he's out of drink.

51:23Andy Holloway:He rolls out and he's like, I feel like sometimes he looks at the crowd and he's like, check this out. I genuinely. And then you're like, oh, not even close.

51:33Jason Moore:I genuinely thought that what you were saying was some interview thing. I'm like, I don't remember him seeing me drunk. No, him on the field.

51:41Mike Wright:That would be us during our show.

51:42Jason Moore:So the opening schedule, he's got to play the Chiefs. Great team. They're probably not favored. He's got to play the Jaguars. Great team. He's got to play the Rams. Great team. He's got to play the 49ers. Great team. He's got to play the Chargers. Great team. I get that those are decent defenses.

51:57Mike Wright:He was not a my guy for me solely because of the first six-game schedule. Yes, he's been on our board as a my guy. I'm so in on Bo Nix, and I didn't know some of those numbers you just shared, but the beginning of the season, for some reason, there's doubt about Denver in general. Right. I get it because there were games last year.

52:18Jason Moore:No, there were games last year where you're like, why is their offense so bad?

52:23Mike Wright:They played the Raiders and they scored 12 points or something silly? Yeah, didn't they lose to them in week one or something?

52:29Jason Moore:No, it was the Pats. Oh, the Patriots.

52:30Mike Wright:Well, what's the divisional odds, too? They are third highest. Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders.

52:37Jason Moore:My argument on these. Yeah. Plus 160. Excuse me. I have to visit someone real quick.

52:45Mike Wright:Chiefs plus 160. Chargers plus 190. Broncos plus 225.

52:49Jason Moore:A lot of times when you are playing against another good team. If the Broncos are a very good team. If Bo Nix is a good quarterback. Then you actually want games like the Chiefs. Like the Chargers. like the Broncos, like the Niners. Those games could end up where the quarterbacks go tit for tat and it's over 50 points scored. Yes, they might be not favored in the game. And you go, oh, you know, for the first six weeks they're underdogs. Being an underdog isn't always a problem, much more so for running backs. But for a quarterback where you've got to keep up, great, because they've got a great defense.

53:26Jason Moore:So you want them to play against teams that are going to score a lot. So I think he's just, right now, if you're in a super flex league, he is just so misplaced.

53:35Mike Wright:How about you pass on Jackson Dart and take Bo Nix?

53:37Jason Moore:Sure, I'd be happy to. If I'm in the, often I am waiting for Dart in the ninth and someone takes him before me. Bo Nix is a great consolation prize. I have no problem with that.

53:48Mike Wright:Oh, this is a breaking news. I had no clue you liked this dude, Mike. Your value pick.

53:52Andy Holloway:I love this player. People are coming back. and yet I think he remains an absolute value in drafts. You are, in fact, the highest on this player.

54:05Mike Wright:You did it! Hey, we found one! We did it! I do like him! I don't know how you were lowest on every other player in the NFL, but you're the highest on this guy in our rankings.

54:13Andy Holloway:It is Mr. Zay Flowers of the Baltimore Ravens.

54:19Mike Wright:Did he get the mister when he collected that check?

54:20Andy Holloway:Yeah, I was going to say, we're going to start at the top. The dude is hashtag good. Baltimore thinks so to the tune of$104 million guaranteed. All right, now we got that out of the way. The trajectory of his career, fantasy finishes, 30, 22, 7. His consistency ranking, 29, 25, 16.

54:44Mike Wright:That one I care a lot more about, really.

54:46Andy Holloway:Target share, 24%, 25%, and then 28 % of Baltimore's targets last year. We talk about it all the time. Targets are the stickiest stat. Like touchdowns come and go. Targets are forever. And looking at the way that the draft is going, everyone else with a target share of 27 % or higher is being drafted as a top 12 wide receiver, besides Garrett Wilson and Zay Flowers. Those are the only two guys not in the top 12 who last year had at least a 27 % target share or higher. You have Lamar Jackson. Yes, it was a down year for him. I'm throwing that in the garbage. Lamar Jackson still remains an elite quarterback in the NFL, in my opinion.

55:34Andy Holloway:Since 2010, 30 wide receivers were drafted in the first round that saw 300 or more targets through the first three years. They averaged a touchdown every 18.3. So Flowers' touchdown expectation, he should be at 19 instead of 14. I'm saying I think there is some touchdown regression that can happen for Lamar. It's not the same system. Like if you said – Positive regression. Yeah, yeah, in a positive direction. If everything were exactly the same, maybe I'd have less hope for Zay Flowers pulling in seven or more touchdowns on the season. Are they going to be – are they long ones? Look, this is what I'm saying.

56:15Andy Holloway:If we don't know exactly what will change, but we know there will be a big change. What won't is he's number one on the team. And the separation between him and the rest of everyone else on this squad as a skill position player, I think it is a massive, massive gap. I mean, we're talking about Jacoby Lane is the hotness of a fourth-round rookie.

56:41Mike Wright:I was going to say, we know what Bateman is, so Bateman's not a threat to flowers. right we know what andrews is at this stage of his career they don't have another up and coming tight end correct that's actually a concern for the baltimore like like if you go beyond andrews it's a bit of a concern yeah they do have and they lost some offensive line stuff as well but like jacoby lane is the next possible contributor in the passing game and you can't imagine

57:04Andy Holloway:jacoby lane threatening 104 million dollar man no and which says to me he might be a 30 percent target share player this year that's not out of like that that's not a wild thing to project I'm not going to go that high but that would not be a shocking thing at the the end of the year for for what they invested in him and what the rest of the team is look the the the books still love Ravens they're favorites in each of their first seven games and yes we do I want I want the the Ravens to be favorites I want them to to know that they're going to go out and they're going to score a bunch of points uh so they are they're tied with the bills for second in super bowl odds i the ravens are a solid squad and it's just it's a flowers here the targets are going to be there and flowers is sitting in a range that is not with the the top tier the ravens are currently the

57:54Mike Wright:number one team in terms of odds to win the afc title there you go that plus 470 really oh they they pass the bills 510 sometimes those numbers mike when it's super bowl versus afc title are somehow different even though they're the same thing um tomorrow we have a mock draft mayhem episode on the show we're going to be talking through a lot of great stuff next week including players were embarrassed to love mike is not embarrassed of zay flowers he is no i am proud of it and then we'll get into some mailbag we will do the my guys next week and like i said i'm I want to sneak three names into the UDK.

58:32Mike Wright:Somebody over there remind me to do that right after the show so that you guys have a little teaser. Don't tell anybody about it. We got the show on Wednesday. And don't forget about... You can tell them that.

58:44Mike Wright:The Megalobowl. Go get in there. Megalobowl.com. The time is now. Drafts from September 4th through the 8th. The day before kickoff. A bunch of different times you can choose from. You'll get placed in a league. We have really refined the rules over the past few years. We've got double the amount of, like, admin commissioners this year to make sure that these leagues are run exceptionally well. And let me tell you, the amount of hours and hours and hours that go into making sure these drafts go off correctly, that there aren't, you know, tanking or collusion or problems in these leagues. And it's just a lot of work goes into them.

59:28Mike Wright:They're very, very fun to play.

59:30Jason Moore:They're very fun. Everybody who's in them loves them, and they play year after year after year. And I enjoy it. I enjoy meeting Foot Clan members in it.

59:38Mike Wright:Yeah, so go there right now, Megalobull.com. We will say goodbye for today, but we'll say hello again tomorrow because we have another episode coming your way, some mock draft mayhem. We'll talk to you then. Goodbye.

59:55Jason Moore:thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com and follow us on twitter at the ff ballers

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