Fantasy Football - Draft Value Picks + Trade Talk - Podcast for 8/21

11:44Jason Moore:Andy, do you know how old Devon Bailey, last year's rookie Devon Bailey? I do, actually. Oh, you do. Mike, do you?

11:50Andy Holloway:I know that he is much older. Much older?

11:54Jason Moore:He's not a 21-year-old rookie? No.

11:56Andy Holloway:There's something like... So how old do you think he is? I believe he is going to be 30 before the end of his rookie contract. So I will put him at 27.

12:04Jason Moore:27.7 years old. That is wild. Now, what did my guy... Guys, he's in his prime. what what did my guy george received for a trade george george pickens yeah oh i don't remember i think it was a third so a fourth and a seventh for a 27 year old veille or george pickens who's 24 years old you don't you have your veille that yeah you're gonna have money but he goes to the saints

12:30Mike Wright:saints need help a wide receiver beyond olave and um you know veille is gonna provide that some help over there but this is also a huge endorsement i think of pat bryant there's in particular and then obviously there's two possibilities here of it like well from a from a i'm talking about the broncos yeah yeah i mean obviously uh troy franklin is going to have a role no but it's it's

12:54Andy Holloway:either this because this is opening up the slot yeah so this is either pat bryant or evan angram

13:01Mike Wright:is about to get a bajillion targets yeah no i i don't think it's troy franklin franklin's a what you Franklin will have like they have more confidence in Franklin to go play on the outside and catch some deep deep passes but from a week-to-week standpoint it puts Pat Bryan on the map as wide receiver too it does like to me that's the possible the player that they they went out they aggressively pursued him in the draft you mean the new Michael Thomas right oh yeah as those are not my words guys the number one thing we do in fantasy too is we rebuild great teams with the coach when they move around.

13:37Mike Wright:We just rebuild their good teams. Sean Payton comped him.

13:40Andy Holloway:Said it reminds me of my life.

13:41Mike Wright:We know you can't rebuild, what, Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush and those players with Javante Williams and Tyler Bidet.

13:51Andy Holloway:So does it – do you move Evan Ingram up at all? I bumped him up a little bit, yeah.

13:57Mike Wright:It makes sense that you would move him up a little because the confidence level, I think, was maybe not there that he could put up the big PPR numbers, but taking a target away.

14:09Jason Moore:Yeah, I think PPR numbers are where I have more confidence. I think he'll be involved. My lack of confidence in Evan Ingram is more what he's going to do with the targets, whether they're going to be efficient, whether he's going to score touchdowns, et cetera. But you look at this team. He's a joker. Yeah, I mean, he already has his wings. I'm joking. According to Sean Payton. and the reports recently have been that he is very very involved in the passing game this move of Vela is the same area of the field that Evan Ingram is going to work so yeah I mean Pat Bryant massive endorsement and Evan Ingram more targets to come his way so what else do we

14:49Andy Holloway:have we got Jordan Addison the Vikings need wide receivers yeah the the Vikings are in need of

14:55Mike Wright:wide receivers because Addison and Ty Felton arm injuries in Wednesday's practice. Not supposed to be severe, but Addison's out for three weeks. Yeah, we'll see. Jalen Wright exited practice today with an apparent injury. Dolphins running back. They were already the leader in terms of the rumor mail for Brian Robinson with Devon Achan injured, with Madison out for the season, with Jalen Wright now hurt. It looks like they're going to be a landing spot for some running back at some point because otherwise you're going, I mean, otherwise Ollie Gordon is your starter in week one, potentially.

15:29Jason Moore:Yeah. A-chan might not be available week one. So that's something you need to pay attention to in your, in your drafts. For sure. Like Ollie Gordon becomes a

15:38Andy Holloway:pretty high priority, high priority, late target. Should they not go get Robinson? Of course.

15:44Mike Wright:He manned almost all of the dolphins running back reps in practice today after the injury. A-chan's not out there so ollie gordon looking sneaky as the season gets ready to begin that was news and notes sponsored by progressive insurance quote today at progressive.com progressive casualty insurance company affiliates and third-party insurers not available in all states or situations coverage subject to policy terms limits and conditions we'll take a quick break and we'll come back with some values for the 2025 fantasy football season

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17:00Andy Holloway:Sign up now. Games not included with DirecTV require separate paid app subscriptions. Service renews monthly unless canceled. Local channels vary by market. Blackouts and other terms apply. Today's show is brought to you by our friends at Old Spice with the Old Spice NFL Collection. You may not be able to play in the NFL. I know. I'm sorry. But you can smell like you do with an Old Spice NFL Collection bringing you 24-7 game day freshness. Smell like an entire Pro Bowl roster with deodorant, body wash, two-in-one shampoo and conditioner, body spray, and lotion, all in new scents inspired by NFL legends.

17:37Andy Holloway:Old Spice, they have you covered. Are you feeling clutch? Matthew Stafford brings the Cedarwood. Or channel CeeDee Lamb scoring a winning touchdown with deep sea and dimes. Look, we have a bunch of this stuff at my house. I'm not joking. All of this Old Spice NFL collection. I, look, I'm an MVP guy. I guess I like smelling like Matthew Stafford. That's Cedarwood. I put it on. I put on the deodorant. And this is true. Gave the wife a hug goodbye, and she's like, what's going on? You smell great. I was like, that's because I smell like an MVP. I smell like Matthew Stafford. Looking for the greatest smell in the NFL?

18:14Andy Holloway:Go get the entire Old Spice NFL collection exclusively at Walmart.

18:27Andy Holloway:Values.

18:31Mike Wright:All right, gentlemen, it is time for some individual value picks. good draft day values is what we're looking at players that you know we're not necessarily saying you go reach for them but guys that will drop to places that we don't think they belong this is kind of you know one of the big features we added to the udk this year was the value scout tool where we take our projections and rankings for players and we compare them to a platform's average draft position so you can go into the udk you can open the tool and you'll see where we believe a player's true value is in a draft versus where they're going.

19:07Mike Wright:And then you can use that information to kind of adjust your strategy and drafts on your platform. Today, we picked out some, you know, individual value picks. My name that I'm going to bring up, this is a player that I briefly talked about, I think a couple of days ago, maybe in passing that I thought was being undervalued, but uh it's time to talk about him

19:33Mike Wright:wow it is debo going right to the drop is bold it is debo samuel wide receiver one for the washington commanders that is currently true i think it might be true all the times all the times even if the player comes back even if terry mclaurin comes back debo samuel uh there there was a little bit of the offseason goofball fantasy analysis. And if we associate being slow in the offseason with fantasy success, so far it is a very good hit rate because last year's offseason was Keenan Allen. Oh, Fat Keenan. Looks like he can't run.

20:09Andy Holloway:That was fun. That was really fun.

20:10Mike Wright:And then he had a great season in Chicago. Debo, obviously. Fat Debo. Fat Debo.

20:16Andy Holloway:He was real slow on the field last year, though.

20:18Mike Wright:Well, let's talk about that. All right. That's what we're talking about. Debo Samuel, I think we would all agree, isn't the same Debo necessarily that we saw years ago. Always dealt with some injuries. Had prolific, what, number two overall fantasy finish in San Francisco one season. He's 29 years old. They traded a fifth-round pick for him. Again, there's another example. You traded a fifth for Debo. You traded a four and seven for Vele. Okay. Yeah. But the biggest question that we have is, does he still have it? Now, if you, I mean, just yesterday, I think all the beat writers in Washington were pulled to say who was the most impressive player in camp for the Washington Commanders.

20:55Mike Wright:No, no. What? It wasn't Bill. It wasn't Bill Krosky? It wasn't Bill Krosky. Bill Krosky can unscramble scrambled eggs. I should have known that if I brought up a commander player, I was in deep trouble trying to get through.

21:10Andy Holloway:I'm just shocked that the Washington Beat reporters are not also in on.

21:14Mike Wright:No, the most impressive player in training camp was Debo Samuel. That is the number one player named. And Debo, we saw him briefly. We saw the jet sweep. We saw classic Debo in the preseason game on Monday. He looked very fast once again. But this is about scheme, right? If you get past the, hey, is Debo, maybe he's not the same Debo. but the question is is Debo done and I don't think Debo is done from what we've seen on the practice field in training camp or in the preseason and if he's not done then you literally dropped Debo Samuel into the best possible offense for Debo Samuel there is no better situation than Debo with Cliff Kingsbury behind the line of scrimmage targets is what talk about the route bush it's what Cliff does yeah 20 % of Jaden Daniels targets were behind the line of scrimmage, fifth highest in the NFL.

22:08Mike Wright:Kingsbury's wide receivers rank. Here's their ranks on screen targets over the last three years. First, second, third. That's what they do. And Debo averages two plus fantasy points per target on the screen passes. This is a match made in heaven. And we don't even have Terry McLaurin in camp. And we already know Terry McLaurin's regressing in touchdowns anyways. He was not a volume. He's not 120 catch guy. And so then you ask, well, Debo, what's the does he still have it when it comes to yards after the catch because that's the you know this was a player that led the nfl on yards after the catch for four of the previous five years uh before 2024 guess what he was last year second second in the nfl in yards after the catch debo samuel mims was the only one ahead of him believe it or not marvin mims of the aforementioned denver broncos so you know debo last year tied garrett wilson most evaded tackles at the wide receiver position nobody wants to draft him he feels like the cooper cup pick he feels like old busted but we love washington we love jayden daniels we love what the offense did who in the world is going to catch passes for this team are you is it zach ertz mike you want to go with zach ertz oh he'll catch passes he will not have yards after catch though i just think that and this is obviously value is correlated to draft cost right now debo samuel is way down the board 38 at wide receiver late seventh round pick he is literally next to cooper cup so he's next to jacoby myers he's next to digs like if you're old you get drafted at 38 39 and 40 apparently that's where the retirement festivities are happening so look the upside is tremendous because you have so much confidence in the team like debo could be their one debo could be their one i think the real question is

23:55Jason Moore:is he washed like that that's the issue the reason that he's you know dropped is because what we saw on the field last year looked bad and you know efficiency wise was was not that great and so as as an older wide receiver the question is just as does he not have it anymore because if that's the case then it'll be a wasted pick but I I don't think there's a world where it's just an average pick like if Debo still has and honestly I know it's one play and I don't want to overdo I just talked about you don't want to – one of the tips was don't overreact to preseason hype. But that's usually more about the young – that would be more about Bill than it would be about Debo.

24:38Debo was just – I saw physicality.

24:44Jason Moore:That cut, he basically got a jet sweep, looked fast, had a great cut that was classic Debo, went down the field, was hard to tackle. And it was like, oh, that was what Debo always looked like when he dominated. so if he hasn't lost it and he's on this offense then yeah it's a great pick i just have a hard

25:02Mike Wright:time like if you play out how a game a game plan goes for a commander's offense i have a hard time seeing them not put the ball in his hands a ton and because of what kingsbury does and then you're like well did those metrics support that he was still good after the catch last year they did is and so to be the most impressive player in camp as well i think he is being undervalued because we're done with him and we want to take shots on other players. But, you know, Roma Dunze is going a few picks ahead of him. I would understand that one. But, you know, when you're talking about is Jacoby Myers upside, what Debo's is in Washington, probably not.

25:42Andy Holloway:Where it's difficult for me, the eighth round, that's fantastic. The speaking of scheme, that's where it's where I don't know exactly what to do with Debo because he, I mean, he was the bell of the ball, you know, for years with San Francisco. And last year they really needed Debo Samuel with, with Brandon Iuke suffering the season ending injury the, after the bi-week. So you're talking, uh, eight games where he's playing a full allotment of snaps. You're talking an average of 79 % of the snaps. So he's playing that game in that time in those eight games he was averaging three catches for 33 yards per game and he like kyle shanahan was done with him so that that's what what scares me off of of debo but again we we do try to relate like if risk is built into adp then you aren't you aren't risking anything in the eighth round like i'm not nearly as bullish as andy is i'd like i would probably I'm coming around this offseason.

26:47Andy Holloway:I'm considering myself more out on Debo, but in the eighth, if he does still have something, even if Terry comes back, I don't love that Terry McLaurin is going to be missing essentially the entire training camp and offseason. I know he's a pro's pro and he knows the offense and everything, but you can't just walk onto a football field in week one and say, I'm ready to play. So he is, I think he's interesting despite me, despite what I watched last year, was a player who was not a part of the San Francisco offense.

27:23Mike Wright:Yeah, and I don't think he's ever played a full season. Maybe were they playing 16 in 2021? If so, that was his only full season in six years in the NFL. So that's always a risk. Debo takes a lot of punishment on the field. But I do think that maybe he's being undervalued, especially in light of the McLaurin situation. so uh other value picks i don't know which one of you guys want to take a shot for hop in here um

27:46Jason Moore:my value pick is dk metcalf for 2025 this is a player who it makes no sense to me that he is being drafted where he's being drafted in the fifth round as the 22nd wide receiver off the board i know why and it's because of the end of last year the end of last year dk metcalf he disappeared he was pretty irrelevant um but we don't remember the cause do you remember do you guys remember the cause of what happened to dk metcalf last year eating too much candy maybe he does love himself some skittles however that wasn't it he uh he hurt his knee in the middle of the season where missed week eight missed week nine came back and wasn't very good he had uh he had a i believe it was a mcl sprain i'll look that up but if you look at the splits between when he missed a chunk in the middle of the season and came back kind of injured in the beginning.

28:41Jason Moore:You forget that he started the year on pace for 150 targets, 1 ,400 receiving yards, seven touchdowns. He was really good. He was what he's been his whole career, which is basically a top 15 wide receiver. Then he gets traded, becomes the guy for Aaron Rodgers. They ship out George. They give him a four-year,$132 million contract. There's no question from any human on the planet who leads this team in targets. None. There's not even a possible debate. There's not even another player that could accidentally come to the same target share. And if you look at what Aaron Rodgers has done with his wide receiver ones, it doesn't matter whether it was Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb or Devontae Adams or Devontae Adams or Devontae Adams over and over.

29:32Jason Moore:He hyper targets them. Last year, this version of Aaron Rodgers had Garrett Wilson as a top 10 fantasy wide receiver at the same time that he had Devontae Adams as a top 15 wide receiver. The target market shares for wide receivers. We just did. If you haven't seen the just the tips episode of the fantasy football, a little mini series we're doing. I talked about wide receiver metrics that matter, and targets are the primary, most prescriptive stat that alludes to success. And the target market share for a player, if they're about 30%, if they hit that number, they are almost a virtual lock to be a top 12 wide receiver.

30:17Jason Moore:and you look at like, okay, Aaron Rodgers, number one wide receiver. You've got years of 31%, 32%, 34%, 31%, 29%, 28%. And there's no one else to throw the ball here to. Pat Friermuth and Roman Wilson.

30:31Mike Wright:I cannot tell you how much I love DK Metcalf this year. I am in 100 % agreement. I think he is probably the best pick in fantasy or close to it. There are players in the NFL that, like I never think, You talked about why are you out on DK Metcalf. I don't even think – he's not a player that I look at the box score and decide if he's a good player or not legitimately. Do you guys like George Pickens this year? Yeah. He's been the wide receiver 36, 26, 41. Is he good? I think we all think George Pickens is good. You can watch the game and you can see certain players, the physicality, the skill and ability, and you don't lay it all at their feet on whether they're productive.

31:16Mike Wright:Sometimes you have to look at the quarterback situation, the offense, what's going on, and you mentioned the injury. Everybody knows DK Metcalf could be one of the most physically dominant receivers in the game of football, and it was proven with the paycheck. The paycheck, it's the same as Josh Jacobs after the bad metrics in Las Vegas. It's like everybody on earth knows that that guy is better than everybody else on the field. It just takes a scheme and targets. I could not agree with you more. It's a great value pick and he won't be moving.

31:48Jason Moore:He's not going to move up. People are kind of tired because he's going into his seventh season and it was disappointing last year.

31:55Andy Holloway:He has disappointed his ADP for at least three straight years.

32:00Jason Moore:Yeah, it feels like it. He's not old. He's 27. He's still in his prime, obviously based on the contract with the target share I feel like his floor, if he doesn't get the touchdowns this year, which for him, sometimes they come, sometimes they don't. He has weird positive regression coming. He scored zero fantasy points inside the 10 last year, which, based on his utilization, was strange. But his floor, to me, feels like higher than what he's being drafted as the wide receiver 22. I feel like his floor is like wide receiver 20, 18, if he ends the season with three or four touchdowns. But if he ends the season with eight or nine touchdowns, he's going to be a top 15 wide receiver easy.

32:44Mike Wright:How does he not hit his target? I mean, is it an Arthur Smith problem? Is that the way he doesn't hit his target all-time high? Because he's at 141 for an all-time high. I can't imagine he's not above that.

32:55Jason Moore:I mean, it's injury. Injury is how he doesn't hit it. There's just – last year, he was on pace to beat his all-time high before he injured his knee. and this year I mean I know I know that the Steelers are going to run the ball a lot for sure they're not going to throw the ball as much as uh Aaron Rodgers wants to throw the ball but the percentage of the passes that will go to DK Metcalf will be 28 plus percent and that's just one of those stats where it points to success almost always so then my question comes in

33:30Andy Holloway:of like the confidence has to also then be coming from Aaron Rodgers because last year Andy you read through like hey George Pickens finished this like he was the wide receiver 41 averaging just under 10 fantasy points you know in 14 games last year talking about George Pickens he was the number one of the the offense for the Pittsburgh Steelers yeah it doesn't help that he's

33:53Mike Wright:the example right because they play for the exact same team but so it has to be 100 the quarterback

33:58Jason Moore:switch i mean me talking about george as my my guy this year was i brought up the fact that he's played with kenny pickett and mason rudolph and that shockingly the worst combo was last year in fields and ross as far as catchable target percentage so i don't feel like it was his fault aaron rogers is going to put that ball where dk metcalf can catch it yeah and he does go to one

34:22Mike Wright:guy when he has confidence in one guy like there have been a lot of like they're still looking for a wide receiver potentially outside of Metcalf to help support DK. The nice thing is, is DK is not like this. Like he can go and take on a double team. He can get off the line of scrimmage and be physical. You know, it's not an undersized guy, at least if you need to hyper target somebody. So yeah, I think he's going to be one of those interesting players for sure. We'll take a break and we'll come back with Mike's value pick and we'll jump into some mailbag.

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35:52Andy Holloway:Today's show is brought to you by our friends at Old Spice with the Old Spice NFL Collection. You may not be able to play in the NFL. I know. I'm sorry. But you can smell like you do with an Old Spice NFL Collection bringing you 24-7 game day freshness. Smell like an entire Pro Bowl roster with deodorant, body wash, two-in-one shampoo and conditioner, body spray, and lotion, all in new scents inspired by NFL legends. It's Old Spice. They have you covered. Are you feeling clutch? Matthew Stafford brings the Cedarwood. Or Channel CeeDee Lamb scoring a winning touchdown with Deep Sea and Dimes. Look, we have a bunch of this stuff at my house.

36:32Andy Holloway:I'm not joking. All of this Old Spice NFL collection. I, look, I'm an MVP guy. I guess I like smelling like Matthew Stafford. That's Cedarwood. I put it on. I put on the deodorant. And this is true. Give the wife a hug goodbye. and she's like, what's going on? You smell great. I was like, that's because I smell like an MVP. I smell like Matthew Stafford. Looking for the greatest smell in the NFL? Go get the entire Old Spice NFL collection exclusively at Walmart.

37:04Mike Wright:All right, Mike, you've brought this name up a lot this offseason. Your value pick today is? Is Jordan Mason. Jordan Mason.

37:10Andy Holloway:Running back for the Minnesota Vikings, and you've got to remember the story of Jordan Mason. Of course, we all know Christian McCaffrey, the legendary. He's going to be okay for week one, and then he is not. And it's Jordan Mason. He ends up being the guy. And it was not just a, you know, hey, attaboy, you filled in for the running back position for our team. He was fantastic on the ground. Not so much catching the ball, but on the ground, it was awesome. in the first seven weeks he was averaging 95 rushing yards per game and like they they put the offense on his back at that moment and he really delivered you know 41 percent of his carries went for five or more yards which last year that would be a top five mark you know you're talking about the percentage of of carries going for five those those those chunk plays who's the names in that list oh Bucky Gibbs Derrick Henry Bajon Robinson and then there's Jordan Mason in there with that and so it was it was a great season before then unfortunately Jordan Mason went down I think the same week as as Christian McCaffrey to the point where like okay the season is over we got to shut him down then the offseason hits what are they going to do here with Jordan Mason who was like they had to figure out are they going to pay him are they not they put a second round tender onto Jordan Mason saying, this guy's going to be a part of our plans.

38:41Andy Holloway:But then the Minnesota Vikings swooped in and said, no, we would like to trade for Jordan Mason. So we're going to, let's upgrade your draft capital. It's not a huge draft pick swap or anything like that, but we know that veterans often go for cheaper than they should, unless you're the New Orleans Saints, then you pay a four and a seven for, for Devon Vele. But the Minnesota Vikings trade for him and then they immediately give him a two-year contract that has seven million dollars guaranteed he's a part of their plan Aaron Jones is coming off of a year that he saw the most work that he has ever seen and Aaron Jones Aaron Jones is 30 right let me tell you something that just happened

39:18Mike Wright:in our point let me just confirm my uh experts league Mike because Aaron Jones is gonna be turning 31 this year okay go ahead the last two picks in the expert league draft just so you know how things are going 902 jordan mason 903 aaron jones whoa okay so i was actually when i got into the ninth well look i got into the ninth uh in the eighth round i almost took aaron jones at 808 yeah okay and then i was hoping he'd i was like everybody's out on aaron jones this much maybe i'll slip around to 905 he did and he just went but i but jordan mason one pick ahead of aaron jones that is now this is a best ball so you're playing some upside and and aaron jones does not

40:00Andy Holloway:seem to represent upside in people's minds because when they you hear kevin o 'connell talking about it he says quote we feel like we've got one of the best combinations of a 1a 1b running back in the nfl the goal is to keep them both fresh the goal is to keep them both 10 of 10 and then it's been talked about of Jordan Mason will be our short area short yardage guy and our goal line guy so while you know this is not me me banging the drum saying Jordan Mason is for Jordan Mason's taking this job he's going to be a three down back no it's he is going to be in a timeshare for one of the most potent offenses in the league and he's going to be the goal line running back like it it would not shock me to see Jordan Mason at eight plus rushing touchdowns by the end of the year and you're getting him in redraft you know in not expert leagues but at home leagues running back 40 almost the 11th round for that amount of touchdowns that people know for sure so i i do

41:00Mike Wright:i wonder if you put jordan mason up against would you rather jordan mason or caleb johnson

41:08Andy Holloway:don't ask me that is an easy caleb johnson that is that's tough i think that's a really tough call

41:17Mike Wright:between the two of those guys scadaboo or jordan mason jordan mason charbonnet or jordan mason

41:23Jason Moore:sharbs but they're very similar yeah like they're in similar situations where they are the presumed backup but you're probably going to be playable with the huge upside should the running back ahead of them that projects to not play a full season like ken walker doesn't ever play a full season and a 31 year old aaron jones usually does not play a full season i've

41:45Andy Holloway:jokingly on on twitter i call these guys it's a flex with benefits because this is this player you can put him right in the flex you can play him on a weekly basis and then because it's not you know oh he's only the backup you know no you literally play him and then those couple games where Aaron Jones is missing and it's just Jordan Mason, then holy crap, you'll probably have a top 12 running back that week.

42:07Mike Wright:It is a bet that the Vikings offense stays successful with the quarterback.

42:12Andy Holloway:It is definitely a bet on that, but that's how I'm betting on the Vikings right now.

42:15Mike Wright:Some of the popular answers on the Foot Clan Discord, so we got some value picks that they threw out there. Calvin Ridley, completely agree on that one. Do you guys agree?

42:23Jason Moore:Yeah, for sure. He's very undervalued.

42:26Mike Wright:Yeah, they mentioned Jordan Mason. They mentioned Drake May as a value in their mind, and they mentioned Dak Prescott.

42:31Andy Holloway:I am so in on Dak, where he's going.

42:36Jason Moore:I took Dak so high above. I'm in a super flex league near a turn in an expert league right now. And I took Dak way ahead of ADP where he is in quarterbacks because I just, I believed he was going to be better than a lot of the quarterbacks that were being drafted after him. And I, and you know, this was going to be a run. So I had to pick the guy I wanted. And I do think Dak is a good value this year.

42:58Mike Wright:we have more value picks in the ultimate draft kit at ultimate draft kit.com let's jump into

43:03Andy Holloway:some mailbag mailbag welcome into the mailbag you can submit your question to the show by going to

43:14Mike Wright:the website the fantasy footballers.com click that submit a question button or you can dial our voicemail hotline 302-464-TFFB we'll begin today's mailbag with a voicemail what's up ballers I was wondering what do you guys think is too late to draft a wide receiver in a 12-team full PPR?

43:34Jason Moore:Love the show. Thanks, guys.

43:37Mike Wright:I guess we're presuming two wide receiver spots here?

43:40Jason Moore:That's a big difference.

43:42Andy Holloway:Let's go two wide.

43:43Jason Moore:Was this a zero wide receiver type of a strategy? Yeah, I mean, imagine that you start off and you get value and you go running back, running back, running back. Are you wrecked? Are you ruined? or you go running back, running back, and then the next pick, McBride falls and you take a tight end. Is that too far?

44:04Mike Wright:For me, wide receivers are always the place that I can find the most value later in drafts. There's so many guys going late. Jacoby Myers could be a viable wide receiver too. He could end up that way. There are a lot of players in that category. We just talked about where Debo is going. So I always feel like I can pile up a handful. right it's also where you can take some mystery bags the rookies you know maybe pat bryant you know you put them on your roster late in the draft i can take more shots at wide receiver there's more of them on the field there's more of them with potential upside that we don't know how the situations are going to go whereas the running backs thin out so quickly that you really feel like you're in a a tough situation you know what how late is too late i that's a tough question to ask i would want one certifiably reliable known target commodity let me give you a wide receiver

44:52Andy Holloway:I'll give you some hypotheticals of what could shake out. Let's say you're in the back half of the first, and you start, you know, McCaffrey for me, but we'll put you in the middle. You get Jameer Gibbs, right? It's a PPR, so wide receivers are going to be pushed up in the top. Okay, Gibbs in the first. You're starting with Gibbs in the first. It comes back to you. You get either Bucky or Chase Brown, and then you get McBride or George Kittle. That's how you have started. Yeah, give me a fourth-round wide receiver. So then you go look at where ADP is right now. You're talking Devontae, Marv, maybe.

45:28Andy Holloway:So as your one. It would be considered your one, but when you go zero of these guys in the first few picks, you're Frankensteining. You're building a conglomerate of wide receivers to be it. So you said Marv and who? So Adams and Marv could be your wide receiver one. What's the next round? Then the next round is DK Metcalf.

45:47Mike Wright:See, I'm fine with that.

45:49Andy Holloway:I would be a Mac every then in the sixth round. It's like George Tet McMillan.

45:54Mike Wright:If you end up with Metcalf and McMillan, but you have five, four rounds of talent. Like what are the what? What are the running backs by Marv and Devante Adams?

46:02Andy Holloway:Let me go pull that up for you.

46:03Mike Wright:Because that's what I'd love to know.

46:05Andy Holloway:So that would be in the fourth. That's the it could be a quarterback, too. That's the Brees Hall, Ken Bone Walker, Alvin Kamara area.

46:13Mike Wright:But the quarterback there is who? It's Hertz or Daniels in the fourth is Burrow.

46:18Andy Holloway:Hertz is the end of the third.

46:20Mike Wright:So do you want Burrow, Metcalf, Tet, or would you rather have Marv, Metcalf, and late-round quarterback?

46:31Andy Holloway:Metcalf, I would probably go late. I would either take the tight end in the third or Burrow in the fourth.

46:37Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, this is really, it's not necessarily what round, and this is what you've got to pay attention to in your draft, right, because they don't always go according to ADP. This is why the ultimate draft kit, we've got them broken down into tiers. what matters is like you still have to have a certain tier a certain caliber a certain class of wide receiver as your first wide receiver and I think we named some of those DK Metcalf to me I'm fine with him being my first wide receiver and then you got to keep loading up and find that value and find that talent but if your league is going crazy wide receivers let's say you are in a three wide receiver full PPR and wide receivers are going way earlier don't just be like oh I can wait till the fourth the baller said i can wait till the fourth yeah yeah yeah it's a matter of dj more is he uh i would not your one personally love him as my one i'm getting spooked man okay

47:26Mike Wright:it's funny dj more 96 98 receptions last two years yeah i mean he when i look at my rankings

47:33Jason Moore:it says i should be fine with dj more as my one my range of outcomes for him though i think he's a little bit riskier with Odunze with the new coordinator and you know I still have DJ Moore as the clear-cut leader of this uh offense at wide receiver 41 consistency rating but I can see how it doesn't go well you know Devontae Adams is someone that I think you know he's got the Stafford risk we've talked about but he is fine to be your wide receiver one you know the volume will be there. The touchdowns will be there. Yeah, I mean, obviously, that's not who you're hoping for, but if you've got true studs elsewhere, so long as you're getting the best value in each round, you should be fine.

48:19Mike Wright:Yeah, no, that makes sense. Let's jump into another mailbag question here. Alright, Brent writes in on X. In the UDK, you have Lazer Mayfield as a bust, but at quarterback 10. Why is that? So, So, spoiler. No, what it is is Baker is in there as a regression candidate. So we do have some in the bust section. Sometimes there are some different things to pay attention to, some labels for players. James Cook is the same situation. It's just that Baker was up over 40 touchdowns. It's hard to repeat unless you have another magical season. Right now you've got multiple injuries at wide receiver. We love Baker.

49:00Mike Wright:I think quarterback 10 is a good ranking. it's not where he finished right he was he was what quarterback five last year yeah so it's not

49:09Jason Moore:where it's he's being drafted as the quarterback seven as well if you draft the quarterback seven and spin that six round pick where there are good players there it's really and then he ends up at quarterback 10 and throws you know 29 touchdowns which is not a bad season but is then you're then

49:24Mike Wright:you're wrecked for fantasy exactly and if you you know it's a good example of how the numbers dictate the way you look at players, not just your affection for them. We love Baker. We would love to see Baker throw 50 touchdowns. I would love that. I'd love that for Emeka Ibuka. I think you'd love that. Oh, yeah. But we have to be intelligent about the way numbers, you know, even the Aaron Rodgerses of the world, ping-ponged from 40 touchdowns down to 25, you know, that type of thing.

49:53Jason Moore:Yeah, two years ago, Jordan Love was the quarterback five like Baker and threw a ton of touchdowns. It was awesome. And then last year it went down to nothing. And they profile pretty similarly Baker and Jordan Love, and one costs you a six-round pick, and the other is – where's Love going? Double digits? Yes.

50:14Andy Holloway:And just for some context here, in NFL history, we've seen 22 times where a quarterback has thrown over 40 or more touchdowns. Now, it's 11 in the last decade because obviously – It's like one a year. 11 shifting we had three last year in 2023 we did not have one in 2022 there was one it was my homes in 21 there was two so it's like you know how you get there you had a fifth quarter hey i'll take it but it's yeah it's the that's the what we talk about the the the danger of the pocket passer is for them when they get boosted in adp they have to do those types of things or Are they – because where was – would it Baker finish as quarterback-wise?

50:59Mike Wright:I thought he was the quarterback five. I can double-check it.

51:02Andy Holloway:Okay, he was higher than that. But it could have been four. But the point is – It could have been three. Could have been two. He was the quarterback three.

51:08Jason Moore:Okay.

51:08Andy Holloway:But the point being, 4 ,500 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns. He is not the number one quarterback. This is just how – you've got to play the game. You've got to play fantasy football. You've got to have rushing yards. or you got a ball out like MVP level.

51:26Mike Wright:Brandon in Miami, Florida, would you rather draft Gibbs or Jefferson from the four spot and half PPR? Gibbs. Yeah, I'll take the shot on Gibbs there. There isn't a... Like some years, I think, there have been a number one overall pick where you're just like, that guy has to be it. Like Christian McCaffrey after a number one overall season had to be it.

51:49Andy Holloway:Right.

51:49Mike Wright:But I don't really, I don't look down on anybody taking, like if Jefferson went number one, I do not think that's wrong. No, it's okay. I think Chase is kind of the name we throw out there. Chase, Bajon, Gibbs, Saquon, Jefferson, those five are fine, right? Is there anybody else in that category? You want to take Henry number one?

52:09Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, if you did, I wouldn't, I'd be like, whoa, that's surprising, but that could work. I would throw CeeDee Lamb into the same mix with Jefferson and Chase as far as range of outcome to finish as the number one.

52:21Mike Wright:All right, question from Taco Mark on X. How do you handle managers dropping out of dynasty leagues? And then also, what if it's midseason?

52:31Jason Moore:Oof, midseason.

52:33Andy Holloway:Number one, shame on that person. Midseason. Unless life event, right? Yes. Better be a Canada event. This better be a life-changing. You are in jail. yeah yeah right even then you probably still make it work you get to make right yeah for sure never been in jail so can't tell you you get at least one right yeah lawyer schmoyer i'm calling the phone call i'm calling the commission to put the roster yeah be like oh dude you got to set that thing up for me i'm not gonna make it this week yeah i mean so how do you handle it uh

53:04Mike Wright:obviously um some different thoughts mid-season you're gonna be forced to kind of play maybe a roster for a missing manager until you find a replacement i think you just set by the

53:16Andy Holloway:take the projections of the of the platform you're on and just do your best uh as far as replacing someone like we we have a passionate horde of supporters of the show we call them the foot clan and we offer foot clan leagues.com which is number one we probably haven't mentioned it for a bit so it's a good time to bring it up of the it's a great place to meet people because you're like oh i want to do this league i want a dynasty league or i want another keeper league foot clan leagues these people are passionate about fantasy football it's also a good place to find someone to take over your orphaned dynasty roster yeah and you can go to foot

53:58Mike Wright:clan leagues.com it'll connect you right with that uh discord server that we have it's uh easy to jump on there i think there's about 5 000 people online right now 60 000 are a member of that group so um yeah you want to find somebody that's going to kind of commit some time and make the league fun and if you you know if you need to like if you have multiple people drop out sometimes it's better to just play the league with two less managers if you can't find two committed people to join um okay uh i don't know if jason has an answer for this one joe writes in what nfl coach would be the worst fantasy football manager and why what nfl coach would be the worst fantasy football manager hmm what what does it take to be a good fantasy football manager that a coach doesn't have because i think the ocd coaches would do great i think sean mcveigh

54:46Jason Moore:would dominate oh yeah for sure um i think it's just a matter of dan quinn with the backwards hat you think he's taking care of fantasy yeah he would crush oh really yeah i think he'd be fine

54:56Mike Wright:i i want to know let me see you with the backwards hat let me confirm well it's it's not just if i if you look like you could handle your roster.

55:03Andy Holloway:It's not just, oh, Colin Cowherd is furious right now.

55:06Mike Wright:You should maybe do a little Dan Quinn Halloween.

55:08Jason Moore:You know what? I heard, I'm going to tell you something. I heard Dan Campbell, who would crush.

55:14Mike Wright:Oh, now you know.

55:15Jason Moore:Dan Quinn's a pretty good answer. Oh, as a bad manager?

55:19Mike Wright:Yeah, you don't look like a guy right now that could handle the roster. It's Arthur. Yeah, he's just not a head coach right now. I don't think Tomlin would freaking he wouldn't do nothing

55:32Jason Moore:no he'd set it and let it ride yeah he'd auto draft but you know he'd be fine at the end of the year he's that guy he'd get in the playoffs you made no transactions you did nothing why are you in the playoffs

55:46Andy Holloway:he'd lose week one in the playoffs every time yes as he does

55:50Mike Wright:alright Jason maybe this is a good one for you Alec wants to know you can only draft one Kyle Pitts or Troy Franklin

55:57Jason Moore:I mean it's Kyle Pitts it's Kyle Pitts but it also

56:03Mike Wright:what if it was like Troy Franklin or Lil Bill

56:08Jason Moore:oh it's definitely Lil Bill Bill Krosky thank you Bill Krosky once counted to infinity

56:22Mike Wright:I don't know if I enjoy the joke myself as much or just hearing al borer lose it every time you say one uh tomorrow we have a mock draft episode do not miss it busts episode coming up next week bold predictions time machine mvp shows so much going on we want to wish you a lot of luck heading into the weekend as well and make sure you have the ultimate draft kit make sure you join the megalo bowl and one of the cool things that we do i don't know if we mentioned it recently but we do give you a dollar for dollar credit so if you bought the udk and you want to be an ultimate foot clan member, which is a year round subscription, one price for the entire year.

56:57Mike Wright:It's less than 40 cents a day. It gives you every premium product that we have. And we will credit your full UDK cost towards an ultimate subscription. So if you want to never worry about another separate purchase or what's in what premium package, we made this super easy last year.

57:13Jason Moore:Autopilot forever. And it's going to have all of our in-season resources. You've got the ultimate dashboard for in-season stuff, which we keep adding to. We're adding trade stuff this year. Manage all your leagues. It's a really good platform. You get it all.

57:27Mike Wright:Yeah, so if you want to sign up at jointhefoot.com, and as long as you're logged in on the website, it'll automatically apply the credit for your UDK if you want to do that. Otherwise, if you just want the UDK, that's ultimatedraftkit.com. That'll do it for today's show. Shout out to the cackling ducers over there. Thanks for holding it down today. We'll be back with another episode tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in. Goodbye.

57:55Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at The FF Ballers.

58:12Andy Holloway:Today's show is brought to you by our friends at Old Spice with the Old Spice NFL Collection. You may not be able to play in the NFL. I know, I'm sorry, but you can smell like you do with an Old Spice NFL collection, bringing you 24-7 game day freshness. Smell like an entire Pro Bowl roster with deodorant, body wash, two-in-one shampoo and conditioner, body spray, and lotion, all in new scents inspired by NFL legends. Old Spice, they have you covered. Are you feeling clutch? Matthew Stafford brings the Cedarwood. Or channel CeeDee Lamb scoring a winning touchdown with deep sea and dimes. Look, we have a bunch of this stuff at my house.

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59:45Andy Holloway:the greatest dog ever. Bread. I'll get you home. Heart of the Beast. Now playing a PG-13 may be appropriate for children under 13.