Fantasy Football - Early Busts + Early Values - Podcast for 6/11

12:32Mike Wright:know all of it I mean his his wide receiver target percentage last year in a bunch of these games was very very high and this is with an active Michael Pittman I still think that you have a situation where um this is their dude I mean name somebody else that's going to step into his role Tyler

12:49Jason Moore:Warren well no he plays tight end Josh Downs no he's little okay those are the two if you had

12:55Mike Wright:another name like if you told me that there was somebody else that could step into that situation those guys if you talk about a role for those guys they're defined they're certain um Josh downs is not moving outside so i i don't have the fear right now no i i don't and the money the money talks to me if it you know if the ankle starts talking to me later then we'll we'll have another conversation you want to know a name that was uttered by the the coach of the colts recently

13:25Andy Holloway:i don't think i want to know it i'm only bringing it up because it's such it's westbrook akine no No, it's insane. Laquan Treadwell. Laquan Treadwell.

13:35Mike Wright:I feel so much better about Pierce just by you saying that. This was not an argument for anything. It was simply like, who?

13:41Jason Moore:Do you have the quote? Do you have the actual quote? You posted it this morning, and I believe your words with it was, this was a real-life quote.

13:49Andy Holloway:I'm really proud of Laquan Treadwell's growth and development is essentially what he was talking about. How many years has he been in the league? He's got to be seven years. Forever.

13:57Jason Moore:He's in a minute now, guys. I'm really proud of his development. He's really... He's 30.

14:05Mike Wright:This is a grown man. Maybe he just meant his physical development. Maybe he meant as a person off the field.

14:12Jason Moore:Yeah, maybe. Not football. Not like Routry or anything.

14:16Andy Holloway:Maybe he's donating his time.

14:17Mike Wright:Just a good guy. Who knows? Well, back to Zach Charbonnet. The expectation is October at best for Zach Charbonnet, which means Jadarian Price is going to have an out-of-the-gate opportunity on the defending champs to get a ton of run. I mean, maybe not all of it. You can say George Helani is going to get work, and sure, but you drafted his only first-round running back.

14:45Andy Holloway:If you say George Helani's name three times in a row, the Helani Hive will show up. You and two friends? No, I'm just saying, they're out there. I'm warning you they are scary people they meet in the cover of Darkwood I bumped Price up a bit which is why it will be so hilarious when Helani is the starter

15:08Mike Wright:do you think the price of Price will increase yes I mean most of these rookies

15:13Jason Moore:will be higher drafted closer to the season than they are right now

15:18Mike Wright:more off season wait we haven't hit the hype train in a little bit but let's do it because it's worthy I miss our old hype train. You always have. I like when we scared people on the road. Do I have to stop the train? Is that my job? Hey, you can't stop the train. Oh, okay, because it really does go on forever. Bashaw Tootin continues to look like one of the most explosive elements of the entire Jacksonville offense.

15:43Jason Moore:I mean, with Crod not there, he has the opportunity to just take the HN role.

15:49Andy Holloway:If you're drafting at all right now, you should be taking this discount because I don't think his ADP is going to hold.

15:56Mike Wright:It feels like Jacksonville is primed to be the maybe hype center of the offseason right now because we've gotten Baysall Tootin. We get the every day. It's Trevor Lawrence and BTJ look so good together. But yet ADPs are fine.

16:10Andy Holloway:Yeah, I mean, it's June. What I'm saying, well, Tootin could rise. Thank you, Jason. He could rise up dramatically. But the wide receivers, no one has any idea what to do with them. So I think they're going to stay late no matter what.

16:24Mike Wright:Well, because they all have equal hype. You know, Travis Hunter will get hype and Parker Washington will get hype. And, yeah, but Basial Tootin continues to look like he wants the lead job. Todd Monken, Brown's head coach, that is, not Baltimore's offensive coordinator anymore, Brown's head coach Todd Monken said he's unlikely to name a starting quarterback by the conclusion of the minicamp. Oh, man. So that'll go into training camp. The advantage.

16:49Jason Moore:Honestly, I don't think. I think he really needs to figure this out. I know. This one isn't a competitive advantage. This is like, dude, I have no idea. When you have to pick one of these two guys, you're like, give me more time.

17:03Andy Holloway:He's actively looking into the outs of his contract. Do I have to coach this team?

17:11Mike Wright:Which faulty parachute do I jump out of this plane with?

17:14Jason Moore:I think he's going from circus to circus looking for Zoltron machines and just trying to make wishes here. Like, please. Is that a big reference? It was. Hot current reference.

17:26Mike Wright:Well, we'll start talking about some players we think might disappoint in just a minute.

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19:58Mike Wright:Before we jump into our early bust picks on today's show, I do want to say this. You said good luck, Monkin, right before the break. and the two coaches I think that look the most in trouble are ironically on the opposite ends of the age spectrum. When I watch Todd Monk and try to – And yet, very predictable that them going to those franchises would be like, good luck. Yeah, I mean the Cardinals new head coach, Woody Wedpecker. Dude.

20:29Jason Moore:I see it. I see it.

20:33Andy Holloway:you don't want to just destroy a man because of some aesthetic choices but

20:40Mike Wright:so LaFleur and then Todd Monken he's the older elder statesman and those situations are kind of how both would find themselves in a head coaching job

20:50Jason Moore:the Cardinals and the Browns are not serious organizations well

20:57Andy Holloway:speaking of us bus

21:04Mike Wright:I forgot the video was you you're Humpty Dumpty in that situation well I am an egg and you fell off not necessarily because there are other eggs with different names

21:15Andy Holloway:well there are other eggs also I believe there's nothing in the nursery rhyme that actually says Humpty Dumpty is an egg yeah but we all know but we all are assuming but has it ever been proven that Humpty Dumpty is out on a wall

21:28Jason Moore:Yeah. He had a great fall.

21:30Mike Wright:Okay. All the king's horses, all the king's men, they couldn't put Humpty back together again. But why is he an egg? Many things would break if they took a great fall. What is he if he's not an egg and his name's Humpty Dumpty? That's not a great name. No. You think there's one person named that in the world?

21:50Andy Holloway:No. No. No. No. Because if your last name is, in fact, Dumpty, you're not going with Humpty.

21:56Jason Moore:If your last name is Dumpty. John. I'm John Dumpty. If your last name is Dumpty, please reach out. I want to meet you. Free tickets to our live show. That's Mr. Dumpty to you. Dumpty.

22:08Mike Wright:No one with the last name of Dumpty goes Humpty.

22:11Jason Moore:You got to be an egg to be a Dumpty.

22:15Mike Wright:Kyle's diving in. He's going to do the research for us. Nursery Rhymes is where it's at. We are starting with our bus picks, Jason. Let me define this for the listening audience here. Not players that we're saying are guaranteed to fail, but have some things that maybe are working against them or represent high risk or maybe things look beautiful on the outside. The fantasy finish, so to speak, looks great. And maybe you need to beware and look at the low-end outcomes or maybe relative to ADP we don't like them, that type of thing.

22:41Jason Moore:Yeah, a lot of times in the UDK we'll have a bust section. And they're not always guys we don't believe in. Sometimes it's just like this guy's being overdrafted. You're not going to be happy. The best example of that was last year's Ashen Gentry, who was on our bust list. and he finished as the running back 12 but everyone who played knew like that was a bust pick you you took him you know halfway through the first round and he really got off to a hard time now my bust pick on today's episode we got it there's a there's an update here from Kyle

23:11Andy Holloway:how certain are you of this it doesn't matter I'm going forward with it okay we have the there he gave us a screenshot of the Dumpty family history there is a Dumpty family with the the The name Seymour. Seymour. So there was, in fact, a Seymour Dumpty. Seymour Dumpty. Come on. Oh, no.

23:28Mike Wright:There was also a Hartford Dumpty. Seymour Dumpty. That's from Ancestry.com? It says we've only scratched the surface of the Dumpty family history. You wouldn't even believe how many Dumpties. Oh, my gosh.

23:42Andy Holloway:That's pronounced with a Dumpty.

23:43Mike Wright:So I'm going to be Mrs. Dumpty, is it? Maybe I'll keep my name. Yeah, it's a real Julia Guglia. Humpty Dumpty. This is ridiculous. All right, we have bust picks. Jason, were you volunteering to go first?

23:57Jason Moore:Yeah, I'll go first because I alluded to this earlier. Less is more? Yeah, and honestly, this is not one of those where I think he's being just slightly overdrafted. Like, I won't be drafting this player. Like, I do think this will just be a bust and a wasted pick. And where he's going right now, he's going ahead of players that I think are great picks. That is wide receiver, brand new shiny toy for Josh Allen, DJ Moore. DJ Moore has been a great NFL wide receiver. He's been great for fantasy a handful of times. Usually we kept saying, oh, if he could only have a quarterback, he'd be great. Unfortunately, he didn't have a quarterback.

24:38Jason Moore:So he was always like a wide receiver too. Very, very solid. I mean, you look back at his wide receiver 18, wide receiver 22, 19, 22, wide receiver 6. That was his big year in Chicago and then wide receiver 17. Last year, fell down to wide receiver 33. And the thing is, is I think he has lost a lot of what made him special. I just talked about when I watched the Caleb Williams tape, it made me more confident in this bus pick because I would watch Luther Burden look awesome, Rome look awesome, Mr. Love, man. Always looks awesome. He looked great. Oh, and he's hungry. And then every target to DJ Moore was like, oh, man, who is that?

25:19Jason Moore:Oh, that's number two. It just didn't look good. And some of the stats really, really bear that out. I know that Joe said, why can't I think? Joe Brady? Yes, thank you. Joe Brady talked about how he felt like he didn't see any drop-off in the film when he was looking to acquire. Yeah, last year's film. He hasn't seen any drop-offs. They were together five years ago. So Joe Brady, back in the day in Carolina, is used to a certain DJ Moore that I don't think he is anymore. Career low in receptions. Career low in receiving yards. Career low in yards per route run. Career low in forced missed tackles.

26:02Jason Moore:This was like, DJ Moore was a yak master. Get the ball in his hands and watch him break tackles. He broke four tackles last year against man. He used to dominate this year. Man targets per route run 16%. That's bad. Yards per route run against man less than a yard. 0.7. Yeah, that is like that's that's dog doo doo. He's not the same guy. And then you look at like, I mean, we've seen this like Amari Cooper. Good. Maybe passes prime. Goes to the bills. and you get excited because it's like Josh Allen needs his Stefan Diggs that he had of old where it's like oh he's going to be a top 10 wide receiver for fantasy but that's not the way this team runs anymore you you look at in 2024 Josh Allen became the first top five fantasy quarterback to not have a top 36 wide receiver and then in 2025 he did it again it's like that's just who they are.

27:05Jason Moore:He spreads the ball around. They're not going to target an alpha one. And DJ Moore is not an alpha one right now. He is being drafted ahead of Mike Evans. We'll talk about him in a minute. Carnell Tate, top 10 first round wide receiver rookie. I would love that. Christian Watson. We're big fans of him. Roma Dunze. You know, I'm in on that. Jordan Tyson. I want all of those guys more than DJ Moore. DJ Moore is being drafted right on that wide receiver 2-3 bubble and I mean first of all even when DJ Moore's had big games or big seasons it's come inconsistently he's not a high volume every game target earner so I just think at 29 years old year nine changing teams is not gonna work the name is is carrying a lot of

27:53Mike Wright:of weight with it that the performance probably won't and I love that I love that I hope his ADP

27:58Jason Moore:doesn't drop I love seeing him where he is because I know someone's going to make that mistake and it won't be me and I you know I'll eat the words if he has a resurgence in you know year nine changing teams but your namesake too here's the other that's a little bit sad sad here's the other uh year nine wide receivers changing teams Randall Cobb sucked Marvin Jones sucked Alan Robbins had sucked Odell Beckham sucked Nelson Aguilar sucked Tyler Boyd sucked and Cooper Cup sucked and then there was one good example uh who was a potential hall of famer in davante adams when he went to the raiders to play with his best friend at quarterback uh do we get ourselves in

28:39Mike Wright:lots of trouble in fantasy this is a things to remember thing of the uh projecting the next blank yes yeah i mean it feels like that works out almost never i mean the next tyreek hill in in kansas city we we went through 15 different players well it happens with coaches too like

28:56Jason Moore:A coach comes over and says, oh, who's going to be in that role? It's like, well, that's not how it works. Remember how I believe it was just talked about with the Cardinals? Michael Wilson is in the Puka role.

29:09Andy Holloway:Right. Well, that's Puka's role. You've got to beat Puka. The Los Angeles Rams have to deal with the Arizona Cardinals.

29:19Mike Wright:Remember the next Wes Welker for 40 years? Oh, man. Is he on the Patriots? Is he white? Oh, man. Hey, we got Edelman. I was going to say, that one actually did happen. Yeah, we got to work down a little bit. That took a while, though. Danny Madola was in there. How long after was Edelman? Waiting for the next Gronk. Edelman. Yeah, the next Gronk? Oh, man. Absolutely. We did that. I remember some, oh, my gosh. Yeah, I know. What was the long-haired? I didn't want to reference him because I couldn't think of the name. Kyle, save us. Kobe Fleener? No. No, he was a Patriot. This was a Patriot preseason hero that flashed for five seconds.

29:53Andy Holloway:Yeah, we just talked about this guy.

29:55Mike Wright:Yeah, we'll find it. Mike, I'm going to let you go next since you're going to mix a running back into the best picks.

30:02Andy Holloway:I'm going to go with a player who it will not surprise people to hear this name, a player who is being drafted as the starter, as the RB1 from their team, and I don't think that he is. I think that he is the auxiliary, maybe the third down guy. It is R.J. Harvey of the Denver Broncos, who the best ball drafters have a better idea as he's going as RB31, and he's RB21 right now in sleeper. I'll start with the good. He's one of nine rookie running backs since 2010 to score 12 or more touchdowns. That sounds great. The problem is he did it on 193 total touches. And I mean, as a problem, like that is, that's a level of efficiency that just cannot be replicated.

30:53Andy Holloway:There was excitement for RJ Harvey. It was a surprise second round pick running backs being drafted in the second round. That's generally a good strategy for us to go after. And yet the team's beat reporters were like, nope, it's going to be JK Dobbins. I'm trying to tell you, it's going to be JK Dobbins as the starter. And then week one hits and there it is. J.K. Dobbins is the guy. Before Dobbins was hurt, I mean, Harvey was just not seeing opportunities. He was at 8.5. And then weeks 13 through 17, he got to be the guy. The opportunities went up. The scoring went up. And yet, he was unbelievably inefficient as a runner.

31:34Andy Holloway:We had 55 qualified running backs with 80 or more rush attempts. he was 51st in runs stuffed at the line and percentage of runs stuffed at the lines 52nd in runs of 10 or more yards the explosive the super fast electric rj harvey couldn't rip off runs of 10 or more yards 49th in success rate 48th in yards after contact per attempt i just i don't if i don't see a world where rj harvey returns anything close to his adp unless the the running back room for Denver gets completely depleted again you want to bet on a Dobbins injury yeah yeah I get it he actually I get it like Arj or uh Dobbins he gets hurt all the time but when he is on the field Dobbins is awesome like he just he plain delivers for every single team that he has ever played for he just does get hurt a lot but Harvey right now is being drafted like he's gonna like the takeover has happened and i just i don't understand it he's going around players who are much better odds of actually making an impact on your team and drafting harvey where he's going in your home leagues i just i think it is a complete waste of a pick and you're going to be sitting around waiting and waiting and waiting for when you can finally plug him into a starting lineup

32:55Mike Wright:well when you when you pick him you need to play him at his adp so that's a huge problem you cannot If you suddenly lose that confidence, which, look, there are all, you know, Jonah Coleman, who we like, who we believe is a good runner, should have some opportunities. And a great pass catcher. And Peyton's history is to give other guys that we don't even know much about opportunities. Tyler Bidette. Yeah, I was going to say, your name can be Bidette and you can get the ball. Yeah. Now, I mean, I like pushing back when I disagree. I agree with both of your picks, like, wholeheartedly. My pick will not be agreed upon by Mike.

33:29Mike Wright:No. At all. But I think this is a player that is an absolute fantasy football mirage for your team. And I say that with all due respect. I don't hear any respect. He said with all due respect. I said all due.

33:46Andy Holloway:That doesn't mean you get to say whatever you want afterwards.

33:50Mike Wright:It's Zay Flowers. It's Zay Flowers. And the people are booing, I guess. The people hate it. Now, here's the truth about Zay Flowers that I think is very difficult for some to swallow, to deal with. I think it's obvious by his ADP that people know that what happened last year by fantasy finish number is not indicative of what he actually represented for your team. Because last year he had a wide receiver seven finish. Now, that was 12.1 fantasy points per game. but his ADP this year is 21 on sleeper 15 on underdog there's nothing wrong with Zay Flowers the player but I think in fantasy you know we've seen three years of Zay Flowers and last year to finish at 7 when I look at the game log I'm mesmerized by the fact that that math works out I really am he had career highs here's his flowers for flowers 118 targets, 86 receptions, 1 ,200 yards.

34:53Mike Wright:That's great. Those are all awesome numbers. Week one, monster performance. How many fantasy points do you have? 27, something like that?

35:01Jason Moore:24.6 and a half PPR.

35:03Mike Wright:Number one overall wide receiver in the first week of the season. For the next 12 weeks, so 71 % of the fantasy season, so like almost a huge majority, he averaged eight fantasy points per game as a wide receiver 41 his next highest finish in the next 12 weeks was 21 overall he wasn't a top 24 receiver for the other 11 weeks so the math ends up somehow he's wide receiver seven because he ends he bookended the years with number one overall finishes so week 18 when it didn't matter for fantasy number one week one huge impression for your team. I'm going to, I got a guy. Number one. And then he had a great fantasy playoffs.

35:49Mike Wright:I'll give him that eight, 18 and 11. But when you, when you put the context together, it's just, it's a really tough situation for me to buy into the draft price for Zay Flowers. I can't see a world where I'm taking them over Devante Smith, Emeka Ibuka, Terry McLaurin, Cam Scadaboo, Bashaw Tootin, who you love. Jameson Williams. Maybe you can have that debate if you want. I think that's fair. I want a little safer dude, or I want a little more explosive.

36:18Jason Moore:More volatility, higher upside is on the Jameson Williams. The more regular, safe approach player would be Zay Flowers. I have Zay Flowers ranked around where his ADP is. Which is 21. Yeah, and I'm not O-U-T on Zay Flowers, but I am closer on Andy's side than the people's because, I mean, we know who he is, and we're not saying he's a bad wide receiver. He's just for fantasy, he doesn't have that. He's going to score five touchdowns, and that's kind of how when they get around the goal line, he's not a goal line threat, and he shouldn't be. They've got Mark Andrews. They've got Derrick Henry. They've got Lamar Jackson.

37:06Jason Moore:and that's not, you know, they should be putting their best foot forward and it's not Zay Flowers there. So then you just have a low, I know he finished wide receiver seven, but like you're saying, Andy, the process didn't help you.

37:18Mike Wright:I have really good numbers for this because if you look at every top ten wide receiver since 2019 and you look at their fantasy finish and their consistency rank and you compare them because we give you those consistency scores. So he finished at seven. His consistency was 16. That's a delta of nine. So he was minus nine. He's a B. that was minus nine we looked at all the players that had a similar delta right anything that where their consistency was not with their fancy finish 69 of those finished outside the top 15 the next year 50 were wide receiver 24 or worse it's not a good sign if your consistency rank and your fantasy finish are that far apart i just feel like baltimore as a team and maybe that maybe with the new head coach and a new offensive ideology this at least the potential for change is there but they spent what sarah they added jacoby lane receivers yep so they drafted two receivers and every single time i've ever watched baltimore i've never said to myself they need zay flowers to win this game they may use them in this game to win in that game to win i don't go into the game saying like i'd say that about derrick henry i'd say that about lamar jackson running the football i might even say that about mark andrews for about four or five years but i've never been in those games where i'm like man zay flowers has taken this one over and that's where the disrespect that Mike hears comes in.

38:35Mike Wright:Yes. Where I think he's a really good player but I think the fantasy community already knows this or he wouldn't be a fifth round pick. You don't draft the wide receiver seven in the fifth round unless you already don't believe that finish. Which you've never defended that finish. No, no, no. You've never come out and been like this is the seventh best wide receiver in fantasy. No. But to me, relative to the draft spot, I've got him so he's being drafted on underdog at 15. Mike's got him at 16, Jason at 17, I'm at 24. So it is a bust for me. It was one of those players that stood out where my fantasy finish was quite a bit further than you guys.

39:09Mike Wright:He's 21, fifth-round pick and unsleeper. So I'm not too far off of that. But when I have to draft him, I feel like I'm going to have to say this is in every week, wide receiver two, and I don't think I can get there. He was...

39:24Andy Holloway:You know, he's hitting 10 points or more a lot of the time. Yeah, like I said, B in consistency. So maybe you guys don't see the ceiling case for Zay Flowers with Declan Doyle coming in. And this, I think that's a huge deal, actually, is if you told me, okay. But we loved Monken. But what I'm saying is if it were the same old, same old for the Baltimore Ravens, I would be looking at Zay Flowers in this ADP and being like, nah. I don't see I don't see how it changes and I agree the identity of the team will still be Lamar and Henry this is going to be a team that has to run yeah you want me to hit it?

40:09Andy Holloway:no just hold on oh you got more stuff to say? yeah and so I'm saying with the new head coach coming in and how good I think Zay Flowers actually is as a wide receiver I do see a world where he spikes He gets up to eight touchdowns. Maybe even nine.

40:26Mike Wright:He had one red zone touchdown last year.

40:28Andy Holloway:Yeah. This is what I'm saying. It is. He's not built for it. It's a completely different offense that will be happening.

40:37Mike Wright:Do you see the possibility of Jacoby Lane and Sarac competing?

40:40Andy Holloway:For the wide receiver three spot, yeah.

40:42Mike Wright:But, I mean, like being more part of the offense?

40:44Andy Holloway:I do not, especially with what I'm reading so far. I mean, Bateman's still locked in as the two. and Bateman and Treadwell gonna be there's gonna be there forever but Bateman just keeps cashing huge checks though uh and like the team it's he is the number one target when it comes to passing offense the passing offense of the Baltimore Ravens wasn't actually that good last year uh if you remember Lamar Jackson oh yeah did not have his his finest year missed a bunch of games. And so for Flowers to do what he did last year just speaks to me of this is a good player who has gone from 24 to 25 to 29 % of the targets.

41:25Andy Holloway:I mean, you push 29, 30 % again, and you just get a little bit of touchdown luck, he can easily squeak in and repeat a top 10 performance. I don't have him statted there nor projected there, but betting on talent, Zay Flowers is locked in there. Breaking news.

41:48Mike Wright:We have a new deal for Patrick Mahomes? Is that what just broke?

41:56Andy Holloway:That is what is breaking.

41:57Mike Wright:The total value of the deal?

41:59Jason Moore:Very expensive.

42:02Andy Holloway:They were riding cheap with Mahomes for a while.

42:05Mike Wright:The new money on the deal is worth$239 million. The total value of the deal is$504.75 million from 2026 to 2033. There'll be more updates like this over the course of that time as well. Half a billion. It's all guaranteed. $504 million guaranteed. No. It becomes guaranteed through contract mechanisms, according to Adam Schefter.

42:31Andy Holloway:It says the first four years are being guaranteed at signing.

42:35Mike Wright:Right, but it says all 504. becomes guaranteed through contract mechanisms.

42:39Andy Holloway:Okay, so it'll be like...

42:41Mike Wright:He can earn up to 522, and boy, he must really want that. Whenever I'm making 504, I'm like, how can I get to 522? You want to motivate a man. The deal average is $64 million per year. Okay. Kansas City. Cardinals are going to have to pay

42:57Andy Holloway:Jacoby now. Wow. Do you think that this... Yeah, they should have got that deal done.

43:00Mike Wright:They got a$3 million deal for Jacoby Brissett, and they just shelled up

43:06Jason Moore:$522 million. Did we cause this to happen? Talking about how McAfee was going to make more than Mahomes on last episode? Because he was asking for$60 million a year. They probably didn't. No, they're like, they probably, yeah.

43:17Andy Holloway:McAfee's not, no way,$64 a year. Did you hear those fantasy nerds talking about that money? Yeah. Wow, congratulations. Kansas City. Kansas City.

43:28Mike Wright:Unleash the offense. Figure it out. Mahomes has the least deep touchdowns in the league. the last couple years. Four years.

43:39Andy Holloway:Sorry, BNME's back. The thing about the Chiefs, the high playing. Sign Tyreek. You should. They really should. When the Chiefs were destroying everybody and just going to Super Bowl after Super Bowl until it trailed off, but the offense was so fun to watch. We didn't hate the Chiefs. We didn't hate, at least the way I remember it, is we hadn't turned. We wanted to watch the Chiefs. Well, because they didn't have the titles yet either. You turn when you win a bunch, too. Even when he had a couple, I feel like it was like, oh, no, I still like the Chiefs because they're very fun to watch. This is a great product.

44:15Andy Holloway:And then it just became so boring the last couple years, still succeeding. That's when we turned.

44:21Mike Wright:I mean, I hope Ken Walker can be a part of this. Oh, please. Because they're missing, like, it was Kareem Hunt, and it was Tyree Kill, and it was prime Kelsey. now you have old Kelsey you had Pacheco and you've got Rice missing games and you got to throw the ball to Justin Watson that's not fun there's a reason why he has eight touchdown passes of of over 30 yards or whatever it was in the last handful of years at least in the league they don't have the personnel and then they spent the whole draft on defense I would not be sure it out if they're still you know in his fantasy value Patrick Mahomes came from running the football and now he's coming off an ACL injury.

44:59Mike Wright:So yes, I'm with you.

45:01Jason Moore:And his number one wide receiver is also coming off of a knee surgery. Currently in jail. Like currently right now in jail.

45:08Andy Holloway:It's so brutal.

45:10Mike Wright:Yeah, I just saw he won the opportunity to be in his own cell to rehab the knee after some of the days.

45:15Jason Moore:Oh, that's so good. Congratulations, Rashi.

45:19Mike Wright:No contract extension announced for Rashi, surprisingly enough. No, any minute. We'll take a break. Keep refreshing your email.

45:26Jason Moore:We'll come right back.

45:56Mike Wright:We'll see you next time. apply. What does it feel like to have a better laptop like the Dell XPS powered by Intel Core? With a premium design that's thin and light, it feels smooth, very smooth. With a responsive touchscreen, it feels fast and precise. And with a long-lasting battery life, it feels like non-stop energy with a laptop that can keep up. Built for those who want better, the Dell XPS, built for you.

46:34Andy Holloway:values

46:38Mike Wright:are you really you're really doubling up i really am i guess get it out of the way mike

46:43Andy Holloway:because it needs to be said so you know how uh i don't like rj harvey yes i like jk dobbins who is just where he is in the draft is it what it can do to to the build of your team is unbelievable he's going in the mid-30s both in best ball and on sleeper currently he they you know they it was all this chatter what are the denver broncos going to do at the running back position they're going to do something they're they're in on the big names they're trying to get breeze they wanted Brees Hall. They wanted Ken Bone Walker. They wanted Rumbelaya. They wanted to make a move. They weren't able to do it, and so they end up bringing J.K.

47:25Andy Holloway:Dobbins back. It's a two-year deal. It's worth up to$16 million. It's$8 million guaranteed. It's not nothing, and the fact that he was so successful as the starter versus what R.J. Harvey gave you. I mean, this is the same team guys the same offensive line jk dobbins was running for over five a carry he and where rj harvey's at 3.7 uh runs going for more than five yards like a good chunk run 41 of dobbins carries 29 of rj harvey's 10 yard runs almost 14 for jk dobbins went down at five and a half percent for rj harvey it's just he is such a better runner than than rj harvey and he's going in the the in the ninth round you like he affords you to be you take your elite tight end take take a freaking quarterback with the tight end i don't care because you can get a running back too

48:26Jason Moore:in the ninth round do you think that jonah coleman could make this a three-way timeshare which would really make all three.

48:35Mike Wright:They didn't make Dobbins a priority. That would be one of my counter-arguments, was that Dobbins sat out there and they were kind of canoodling with some other free agents at the running back position, and then they settled on returning. They got one in the draft and they bring Dobbins back. They have Harvey. I think that's my biggest concern. Now, I don't think... If I think of what you're saying is right and Dobbins is showing that in training camp, this ADP won't stay. but it won't go up to a point where it's unaffordable

49:04Andy Holloway:he'll maybe go so in our mock draft Jason took him in the 7th the 7th round you got Kyle Monungay like he's an interesting player but he's definitely not the starter you have you know like Rico it's just weird with him and Jalen Warren Blake Corum and then there's J.K. Dobbins

49:26Mike Wright:I don't know if the team like last year he was kind of a revelation where you expect that maybe the rookie gets an impact, he comes out and gets it done. And I don't disagree on the value or anything. I'm just more so talking philosophically about J.K. Dobbins. If I'm that team and Harvey's gotten his reps and I go out and I get Jonah Coleman, I don't see a world where J.K. Dobbins is getting more work than he got last year by any stretch of the imagination because he got hurt doing it. That was part of it. Is J.K. Dobbins injury prone, gets hurt with too much work? That's where my hesitation would come.

49:59Mike Wright:but right now it's like a free a free player i feel like it's a free player and it's a free

50:04Andy Holloway:starter who was you know before the injury game his consistency was a b he was what he was putting up he was at 11 fantasy points a week on average the team's going to win a lot of games and they're

50:17Mike Wright:going to be winning a lot of games their defense so elite defense it's so giving the ball to a

50:21Andy Holloway:veteran running back makes sense who actually has success on the ground as opposed to rj harvey

50:29Mike Wright:Jason, your value pick.

50:31Jason Moore:My value pick, I've been talking about him, talking him up this whole offseason. I know, Andy, you disagree with me on this one, which is fine. But I think Mike Evans is a great value. I believe he's going to be very good this year. He is old. He's changing teams. He's 32.8 years old. He'll be 33.

50:52Mike Wright:Those are some of those things you're always looking for.

50:53Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, no, I mean, I'm bringing those up because that's usually something I avoid.

50:57Andy Holloway:That was your DJ Moore argument.

50:59Jason Moore:Well, that was year nine. And also in that argument. Oh, Mike Evans.

51:03Andy Holloway:That was year nine. We're not. Mike Evans is way past year nine.

51:08Jason Moore:Yeah, but also the one guy who stood out on that list who was great when he changed teams. He was the wide receiver three. He was Devontae Adams because he's like a Hall of Fame level caliber wide receiver. That's what Mike Evans is. He's a Hall of Fame, second ballot Hall of Fame wide receiver in the future. and this is a team that is projected to score a ton of points. Like right now they're I think like the third highest, fourth highest in projected points. Who's going to score the touchdowns? Obviously Christian McCaffrey is going to get his. We don't know about the health of George Kittle.

51:40Jason Moore:Mike Evans is going to be a touchdown machine. Brock Purdy throws touchdowns. They lost John Jennings. Every report from San Francisco right now is about how amazing Mike Evans is. the connection between Purdy and Mike Evans has been awesome. So healthy. I mean, that's really – see, that's the issue to me. I don't think – you have two arguments. You have the argument that he's lost it, he's old, and it's just like don't go in on that. That's fine. Maybe that's true. You have the other argument of, well, he's injury-prone, and so I don't want – I mean, going to San Francisco, goodness gracious, an injury-prone wide receiver, that's fine.

52:20Jason Moore:And I do believe there is a chance that this is a pick where if he gets injured, you go, well, shoot, I should have seen this coming. I feel really stupid. But when he's on the field, he's going to score a ton of fantasy points. He's not going to be, I don't think he's going to be a wide receiver three. I think he's going to be a potential wide receiver one. I think he could be a top 12 wide receiver. And he's going in a place in the draft where it's like you're not, you are drafting an old guy changing teams who was injured last year and you're worried about it. But the scheme that Kyle Shanahan has really leads to a lot of specifics that Mike Evans does.

52:57Jason Moore:They play with two wide receivers on the field often. That sounds, some people think that's bad for fantasy. That's great for fantasy for wide receivers. It's consolidation of targets. When Mike Evans has been in two wide receiver sets, he has dominated. That is his bread and butter. I just think what Shanahan does, what Brock Purdy does, and what Mike Evans does is a match made in heaven. It's very similar to my argument last year with George Pickens and Dak. They just, what Dak does well is what George Pickens does well. It was, and they needed him. And that's the thing here is like they need Mike Evans.

53:38Jason Moore:They need a wide receiver one and everything about, you know. Hey. Yeah, is that Ricky P? This is Ricky Mouse. Ricky Mouse but you're going Mice Evans what's that oh I missed it it's fine

53:53Mike Wright:it's fine it was a mouse slash mice reference

53:58Jason Moore:Mice Evans for Ricky Mouse oh my goodness it wasn't really like

54:05Mike Wright:it was more just I was throwing it right back to you real quick and you couldn't pick it up there's a reason I don't pick up turds I don't like that joke I'm going to make a problem. I'm going to say something that you're going to love. I love Mike Evans. Okay. If it was 2023. Because that's when he was a my guy and I loved Mike Evans. Look, you're not going to win any argument opposing you on the basis of what Mike Evans has done. That's not any argument against Mike Evans. He's done everything. He's been amazing. He's been one of the greatest wide receivers we've ever seen. In fact, his career has spanned our career almost perfectly, where he's dominated the entire time that we've been doing the podcast.

54:46Mike Wright:You have to, like, I noticed that we can't, we throw last year out because he was injured. I mean, he did play like, he started the year as a wide receiver 41, 48, 27, then he was out, came back 8, 24, 28, and 50. We won't know if the wheels were falling off very much last year, but I tell you what, there's a chance they were when you're 32 years old. You're going to be 33 this season. Like, I don't like the basis of saying something's just going to go wrong, and that's my entire argument. But it is. It is my argument. I mean, it didn't work with CMC, but it did. It worked with Purdy, and it worked with Pearsall, and it worked with the other parts of this offense.

55:29Mike Wright:And it has worked, when you look at San Francisco, not quite figuring it out with some of these pieces. Like, if Mike Evans has the fountain of youth, and at 33 years old is producing at 28-year-old Mike Evans levels, you're going to be right. His situation is really good. But it's not like we don't like Baker Mayfield. He produced wide receiver five numbers with Baker Mayfield in 2023. I don't think it's an upgrade on his situation that much to what he was doing then. Well, no, but I mean the targets, 57 % vacated targets.

56:02Jason Moore:His targets aren't going to change that much. so this is i mean i'm just saying the need for him is like so if he goes down you say it's it's not going to work out it's going to go wrong he's going to go down i'm saying where do they throw the it's i mean then i didn't say he was going to go down are you drafting ricky pierce all like a lot no are you high on no no come on what i said was not that he's going down i said something's going to go wrong well sure but we know what that would be well it no because it can be party

56:28Mike Wright:getting hurt it could be do you think that it could be 49ers them not building him into the

56:32Jason Moore:offense to the way that you like it do you believe the 49ers offense will be a good offense score when they're all healthy no no but like on the course of the year healthy not healthy i mean the 49ers are never healthy do you think that this is an offense that will be a top 10 scoring

56:47Mike Wright:offense uh probably in that range probably in that range so it's got to be someone so i guess if you

56:53Jason Moore:are out if you're listening and you're like i'm not doing a 33 year old hamstring you know tight hamstring guy I'm just not doing that then then I would say draft Ricky P because someone here is

57:04Mike Wright:going to except for that argument didn't work last year because that that argument was completely applicable to Ricky P he wasn't the beneficiary of it it became Juwan Jennings in a CMC year and Kittle was on fire so like other things do happen like other players come in and produce that's all I'm saying I have my fears that's it 33 year old changing team guys the arguments you made for like this is hall of famer so maybe he can do what julio couldn't do and he can go to san francisco and dominate i do think it's a it's in the range of outcomes but i also think like like you have him ranked in a place where you know he's going to start every week for you yes and you're going to be counting on it um would you take mike evans or abuka uh i would take abuka i was just curious i didn't i didn't know i nothing no agenda there just curious where you were at my i guess i have to share mine yes you do um his name is kenneth gainwell oh and not sleeper because he he woke last year right but a value pick on today's show i haven't

58:05Andy Holloway:ranked higher than you guys do i'm at 32 back in the adp deep freeze though oh yeah and he that's

58:10Mike Wright:where guys like this live that's where they're always going to live do you remember how many years darren sproles lived in that place oh man and then because you that was good code you could never find a clear path for the dude like mentally you could well they have these other two starting running backs so Darren Sprook okay he figured it out like Kenneth Gainwell last year was unbelievable for Pittsburgh I look at the depth chart here in Tampa Bay Bucky Irving is a huge wild card obviously and I don't know if he was brought up on the wild card show he probably was Sean Tucker, whatever and then Kenneth Gainwell is here to be the beneficiary of an offense that has passed the ball to the running back position very frequently Rashad White, the entire case you made for him on Tuesday, you talked about how effective he was with Baker Mayfield for many years, Kenneth Gainwell is just a pro's pro, he led the Steelers with 73 receptions he's not going to, he's a free player you talk about J.K.

59:06Mike Wright:Dobbins in the ninth round, Kenneth Gainwell you're going to get him there or later and running backs are hard to come by. So, you know, he wasn't just a check down guy in Pittsburgh. That might be one of the things you're thinking about. He lined up all over the place. And this is a team that lost the aforementioned Mike Evans. They don't know what they have in Bucky Irving, and he's still not healthy. And Bowles back in late March said he's the 1B to Bucky's 1A. So they're already kind of setting the stage for this being a two-headed situation. it hurt players like Jaylen Warren last year at times because Kenny Gainwell came in and stole opportunities in the game and look do you have what's your confidence level on Bucky Irving being a star this year being a star I mean being a being a what he was as a rookie 30 33 so so this is there's not other names to step up here and they really need another pass catcher to come and and provide something from the backfield so I think it's a really interesting situation hopefully an upgraded offensive coordinator grizzard is gone zach robinson has has arrived um it's just to me very interesting to see the contract numbers that they gave him a couple years 14 million bucks the passing down value right a target worth more than the carry and being a kind of a swiss army knife for the offense so i think it's not a name you're going to enjoy taking people will roll their eyes and not care when you take them probably like jk dobbins but you might just end up putting him in your flex position before you know it this kind of

1:00:41Andy Holloway:my take on kenny gainwell no i'm i'm in you you want murky situations and gainwell the money is very important to me that they pursued him and they said what did they give him you know it's It's not, it was like cash or? Yeah, credit cards. It's Amazon gift cards. It was 9.8 guaranteed worth up to 14.

1:01:08Mike Wright:Okay. Two years. Yeah. Two years. I mean, it's not the most money, but he's got to be thrilled. This was a player that looked like a bit part player that became a feature player. You know, you said a lot about Rashad White. We saw Rashad White where we had to begrudgingly accept what he was able to do in this offense, catching the football. And he caught like every pass. And then what? Bucky Irving came and caught every pass. Like I think maybe Baker is really good at throwing to running backs. Yeah, for sure.

1:01:36Jason Moore:I will say that it's a very, very good match between the quarterback and running back. The skills and what they excel at is a great match. It really comes down to Bucky. because if Bucky gets back to rookie Bucky and he's explosive and he is the star that he was, they'll use him in that way. He will be more of a workhorse. But if he can't get back and currently he's injured and he is undersized. Or the efficiency is where he was last year. Right, exactly. Or he doesn't – yeah, he's not that same explosive guy. Then they will get Gainwell on the field way more than we will want and he'll score fantasy points.

1:02:17Jason Moore:because when you catch, I mean, he had 114 targets last year. Obviously, different team, different situation, but not every running back can ever get 100 targets.

1:02:27Andy Holloway:You said you watched Rodgers. Yes, I did. Do you understand why Kenneth Cainwell got that amount of targets?

1:02:36Jason Moore:Yes, because he can't throw down the field anymore.

1:02:40Mike Wright:And he's coming back?

1:02:42Jason Moore:Rodgers is back.

1:02:42Mike Wright:Who's going to catch the ball out of the backfield?

1:02:45Andy Holloway:Jalen Warren. Warren or Rico I don't know

1:02:49Mike Wright:what about your guy

1:02:53Jason Moore:Caleb Johnson no no no that's not my guy Heidenreich's my guy that's who's going to emerge the Swiss Navy knife

1:03:03Mike Wright:Swiss Navy knife not our did he go to Navy

1:03:08Jason Moore:yeah he was from Navy oh my gosh it's a great name I think it was their running backs coach that coined that

1:03:16Mike Wright:oh man it's no dumpty no well but it's pretty good uh next Tuesday it's dump DMD uh next Tuesday underrated overrated that was a super fun show last year I'm looking forward to that one where we go through a handful maybe maybe up to 10 situations in fantasy and some stuff like some rules and league settings and stuff and we marked him you know we just vote live on the show are they underrated overrated situations do we agree do we not that was that was a blast last year we're going to do that on tuesday and we'll get into some surprising teams on thursday's episode and some mailbag as well check out the udk ultimate draft kit.com until next time boys for andy mike jason dr dumpty we say goodbye goodbye All right.

1:04:09Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.

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