Fantasy Football - Early Top 15 RB Rankings + Pre-Draft Vibes - Podcast for 4/14

9:36Mike Wright:More really doesn't matter. Wicks could matter a little bit. Yeah. But you have to convince yourself that the number two or three guy on this receiving room, I mean, Dallas Goddard. Is he still a question mark?

9:48Andy Holloway:I mean, he's a question mark because he's never done anything until last year.

9:52Mike Wright:I'm just saying from a pass catching standpoint, it's just hard for me to believe Wicks will be relevant regularly.

9:57Andy Holloway:Of course, but it'll be the what's his ADP? Like Wicks will probably be left into the double digit rounds of someone who's interesting to take a shot. He's the last round pick guy. Also, the Green Bay Packers implication. That one is almost more interesting because when they so Dobbs left and it was like, Oh, well, Wicks might hang on and actually be somewhat relevant on the Packers. So they trade him away. So you have Watson, Reed, and Matthew Golden are your primary wideouts as Tucker Craft comes back from the ACL injury. But it's like if you're Team Golden, just hope they keep shipping these wide receivers out.

10:36Mike Wright:Yeah, I know. I think Christian Watson, I mean, before this move, Watson was climbing up my boards as a true light. I agree. early my guy candidate that is happening. You know, Wicks leaving, it makes it even more of a just, is he going to be healthy? And if he's healthy, he's probably going to be good. Devon HN not close to agreeing on a contract extension so far. That makes sense. It's April and he just stopped showing up. So don't work on that. Travis Hunter expected to be a full-time cornerback this upcoming season.

11:12Andy Holloway:Oh, man.

11:13Mike Wright:Now, let me tell you a little story. Once upon a time, moments before this news formally broke, there's been speculation that this might be the case. Still, there was talk about Brian Thomas Jr. getting traded. That's still a rumor. So I thought to myself, maybe I could get Travis Hunter super cheap.

11:36Jason Moore:Oh, interesting.

11:37Mike Wright:In a dynasty league. Okay. Because of the rumors. And maybe I'm like, this guy's too good of a wide receiver to keep him off the field. Anyways, I pulled that trade back. Yeah. As soon as this news broke. And I'm very, very happy that I did. Yeah. Because it would have been a problem.

11:53Jason Moore:It is a very interesting question in dynasties. What do you do if you have Travis Hunter? You invested an early pick. You know, he was a first round pick last year. and now you're worried, presuming you're not in an IDP league where you can use him as a cornerback, you're worried that he might literally have no value for the rest of his career for fantasy.

12:17Mike Wright:My whole thought on it was that, one, where he was drafted, and two, he was the, wasn't he the Bolitnikov winner at wide receiver? Maybe that's a tight end award. Isn't Bolitnikov wide receiver?

12:31Jason Moore:Yeah, the Bolitnikov is wide receiver. but I don't remember if Hunter won it.

12:36Mike Wright:He won the Heisman.

12:38Andy Holloway:Yeah.

12:39Mike Wright:Thank you, Kyle. He also won the Bolitnikoff Award. Spell Bolitnikoff, Jason. Yeah, please spell Bolitnikoff.

12:47Jason Moore:B-I-Litnikoff.

12:51Mike Wright:Yes, that is correct. He was the nation's most outstanding receiver. To me, you look at that situation and you're like, how do you keep that guy off of the offensive side? One injury, one situation. situation i think he i think his days contributing on offense are not over i will say that but i'm not trading what i was offering okay so what would you trade him away for if you had him

13:14Andy Holloway:a future second no i'd still need a first oh i don't think you're getting a first but then i'm not trading i'm saying like dad you you have to come i have to recoup something i was offered

13:24Mike Wright:travis hunter for a couple future seconds and i turned that down and countered with a like a 20 28 third and a 20 27 second and then i pulled that away when this news broke but i think this this news is a bit could be premature i mean travis hunter is debating disputing it isn't he

13:43Andy Holloway:yeah he said something on twitter but that doesn't necessarily mean anything um

13:49Mike Wright:bashal tootin rumors let's just stay with jacksonville roll an opportunity going to see a major hike amazing amazing breaking news here Travis A. Chan Jr. yes was traded that's

14:04Jason Moore:or was no he was signed by by the Saints that's by the way this is our first attempt all right at properly pronouncing his name I'm gonna go ahead and put myself out there on a limb and say I'm gonna get it wrong yeah that's all right times but we're gonna try yeah so we'll give it a

14:22Mike Wright:the artist formerly known as Travis ETS Travis Achan Jr. in New Orleans the opportunity is of course going to go up for Bayshawn Toon can I report stuff like this?

14:34Andy Holloway:John Shipley did but it's also he believes

14:40Mike Wright:we're not 100 % sure this is on us for mentioning it. B. John Robinson's 5th year option has been picked up he's going to be expensive soon we're going to go ahead and kick it off here we're going to get right into the running backs

14:57Jason Moore:running backs I can't

15:01Mike Wright:believe we're here guys our top 15 running backs early rankings we get to discuss a number of these players we should also layer in could they get messed up in the draft if there's any other names in there. Kyle put together some stats for us. What makes a top 15 running back? The average for a top 15 running back, 312 opportunities, 250 rushing attempts, about 1 ,100 yards on the ground, 10 rushing touchdowns, on average 60 targets, 47 receptions, 365 and 3 in the receiving game. So over the last five years, 77 % of top 15 running backs averaged at least 18 opportunities a game. So you need workload.

15:51Mike Wright:Yep. 77 % had at least 10 total touchdowns. So between the rushing work and the receiving work, at least 10 touchdowns. And then they were also on winning teams. This one matters, though. Top 15 running backs were on NFL teams that averaged 8.9 wins.

16:09Andy Holloway:Like when you're going through the list, there are definitely guys who will break through because they, you know, like Devin Achan. Now I'm messing his name up. It's not Devon Achan.

16:22Mike Wright:It's not Devon ETN, that's for sure.

16:24Andy Holloway:I froze there. Devon Achan.

16:27Mike Wright:You're any Achan in the conversation. Oh, my gosh.

16:29Andy Holloway:We'll get it. But it's like the Dolphins, they don't project to be a great team. Let me ask you this. Some guys can break through.

16:37Mike Wright:Is Achan, is it like a Louisiana way of saying ETN? Kind of. We have Papa Josh here who grew up in Louisiana. Is that it, E-C-N? He did confirm this. The way they pronounce things is very different. Thank you. Thank you. So anyways, you're going to mess up. Poor Devon H-Chan is going to get messed up.

16:59Andy Holloway:He already did? Yeah. I was like, oh, crap. If you didn't see Kyle Brandt talking about the name swap, well, not swap, the correction of H-Chan, him bringing up Brett Favre was like the funniest part because it's like yeah hold on now. Yeah those are

17:19Mike Wright:in the wrong order. The letters they're backwards. The problem isn't the name at all. The problem is I wish we would have known sooner.

17:29Jason Moore:Yeah when you go to the NFL combine or at least like the NFL draft when you're drafted that should be part of the processes. Okay now tell us second contract name changes are not I'm not cool with it. The only time that it's acceptable is if you're basically adding a senior. You had a son. Now you can amend your name. I think it's, you know, there should be rules in life. But you bring up a good point. Like, how is the NFL, do they not do this?

17:59Andy Holloway:They must not. Like, when they. Seems pretty easy to solve. Everyone who comes to the combine, give me your name. See, I don't. State your name. Maybe you change your mind. On how you say it? Well, they called him ETN for so long that maybe he was just like, whatever, I can't keep correcting people.

18:15Mike Wright:But now he got paid. Yeah. And it's time to straighten people out. You let him know. But this is your last one. None of this chosen Anderson stuff. We're not doing this 10 times. Oh, man. We're not doing this 20 times for you. All right. You guys ready to get started? Yep. We'll include number one and number two in the same discussion pretty much because the debate is going to be these two guys. But number one on our list, Bijan Robinson. number two Jameer Gibbs we did not all agree with the order here you guys both had Bijan at number one I have Jameer Gibbs at number one um that is that is just a product of the Monk how dare you I know it's on it's unacceptable but yeah I just like Detroit's offense more um that's it that

18:58Jason Moore:makes sense I mean you you just talked about these top running backs usually come from good teams right now it's a seven and a half win total for the falcons they haven't had a winning season in quite some time since 2017 wow gross sorry kyle um not sorry i'm a cardinals fan yeah the cardinals are like one in 10 years yeah that's not sorry that's congrats yeah your team is pretty good uh but yeah i mean the the question between between B. John and Jameer Gibbs is splitting hairs. I think the more explosive games will come from Jameer Gibbs. You don't see as many breakaway touchdown runs from B.

19:39Jason Moore:John usually, although he did last year. Yeah, he did. Have a couple. Yes, he did. You know, he's been last year and now this offseason training with CMC. It seemed like he got a little bit more explosive last year. Maybe that'll be. I just think B. John is the better running back. The just overall, you know, if I was building a NFL team, I would draft him over Gibbs.

20:03Mike Wright:Yeah, he is a video game character. Number one in forced missed tackles on rush attempts. Number one in yards after contact. Number one among all running backs and percentage of teams first read targets. You know, I don't know or like their quarterback situation. So we'll see how their offense is able to move. They agree. They agree. Jameer Gibbs also is getting, I know we like to joke about the blobfish, but the running scheme, I trust it in Detroit. So it's splitting hairs. I lean the Gibbs way. It's hard to repeat at number one. You do see changes, and I like them winning more games. I just think that there's no one to compete with Gibbs at all.

20:47Mike Wright:Bichon's amazing. Flip a coin.

20:49Jason Moore:The really ironic and insulting thing here is we're talking about who between these two guys should be the running back one. And it's those two, and we're not even considering the guy who was the running back one, Christian McCaffrey, who very well might just continue scoring more fantasy points than every other player out there, as he has done multiple times in his career. Is this just age?

21:15Mike Wright:Gibbs was tied with McCaffrey in the first read targets, getting the receiving work. So we like that as a special recipe. but yeah I think I think it's age injury risk I mean it's it's not a small difference number three is Christian McCaffrey we'll take a quick break and come back and talk about last year's absolutely dominant victory lap for Mike

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23:21Mike Wright:All right, Jason, you brought it up. Christian McCaffrey, right now we all have him at three. So that's including Mike. Mike is one of us. Yep. And he has him at three. It was an incredible year. He had 413 touches, which is the most since DeMarco Murray in 2014. I remember that DeMarco Murray season.

23:39Andy Holloway:Oh, yes.

23:39Mike Wright:And I remember it wasn't that good forever. CMC has been good forever. It's wild. I mean, it was everything that Mike could have dreamed and more. 21.5 fantasy points per game and all the touches he could handle.

23:54Andy Holloway:In 17 weeks. Yeah, that's the thing is he stayed healthy. You know, there's numbers of running backs who get this many opportunities and they get hurt the next year. This was part of the conversation for Saquon Barkley going into last season. But it's like, I don't know for sure if this is truly a correlation or causation event of, well, I had all these opportunities. It sort of makes sense, but it's just every running back gets hurt. When you play all 17 games, as much faith as I had in McCaffrey, I didn't expect 17 games. That's preposterous to expect it from anyone at the running back position.

24:37Andy Holloway:When you draft him, you should think, I hope I'm getting 15 games from this player. and I hope they're not out in championship week.

24:44Mike Wright:He only played – he's played 17 weeks twice, and both times it was after a seven-game season and a four-game season. Yeah. So he definitely didn't – you know, you talk about workload. This will be the interesting one.

25:00Andy Holloway:He's not the same player. This is not McCaffrey of two years ago watching him, you know, where he always had kind of a sneakier burst and you're like, oh yeah, Chris McCaffrey really is faster than I remember. That's going down, but he's going to catch the ball so much. You have the George Kittle torn Achilles is a situation because it's a weird of, well, if he's out, I would expect McCaffrey to catch the ball more. But if George Kittle is out, it's not as good for Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco 49ers. their offense they really need guys they're like they who's really gonna make evans yeah i think

25:45Jason Moore:helps their passing game a lot because the the rest of the game it's like it's one like you lost

25:50Andy Holloway:george kittle and now you're bringing in mike evans i mean there's so you really only you have

25:56Jason Moore:like one alpha player besides christian mcafree yeah it's funny when they got in the red zone they passed the ball to McCaffrey. McCaffrey led the league in red zone receptions tied with Amon Ra, which that's the first running back to ever do that. And so I do think in the red zone, Mike Evans is going to be a pretty important piece of that offense.

26:20Mike Wright:And Kittle coming back eventually, so they'll have both in the red zone.

26:23Jason Moore:Yeah. So, I mean, you can't really say much negative on Christian McCaffrey other than just with that much work. And at his age, he carries a lot of risk, and we've seen that before. But if he's on the field, he's going to score more fantasy points than everyone else.

26:38Mike Wright:Yeah, to Mike's point about not being the same guy, during his prime seasons, his average long run was like 26.5, 20.5. Last year, there were – it was like 13. Like he didn't – and that's just looking at all the long – every game, what was his long run in every game and averaging it out. he didn't have as many explosive plays i think the second to last game of the season he had a

27:00Andy Holloway:44 yard run he had a 41 yard run but before that his long on the year was 24 so yeah he really he

27:09Mike Wright:wasn't ripping off the normal chumps 3.9 yeah so this was a product of volume and so if the volume comes down whenever the volume eventually comes down for mcafree you're going to see those numbers come down he's not going to do it forever but he can probably do it again on a team projected to win 10 and a half games we just talked about that recipe for success they're not going to go away from him unless injury comes his way so um you know mike considering what he represented value wise last year compared to what he's going to cost this year how are you looking at the mcafree

27:44Andy Holloway:proposition compared to the other names so right now on underdog so in basketball he's going as the running back four. I think we have them at three. Three or four is fine. I just, I feel my confidence level in Bijon and Jameer Gibbs is just much higher than it is in McCaffrey because those guys are, they're still younger and they can still rip off the 50 yard touchdowns every once in a while. So this, I'm not, I'm not abandoning McCaffrey, but I just prefer the other two guys if I'm picking 101.

28:15Mike Wright:Last year, the number two running back was, believe it or not, Jonathan Taylor, who comes in at number four for us in our early running back rankings. I have him at six. Jason and Mike have him at four. It's been an interesting career for him. I mean, sophomore season, he's the number one overall fantasy running back. Goes through a couple of years where he's missed time, banged up, offensive and quarterback problems um has kind of a more of a a weird year in 2024 finishes his rb9 anthony richardson and company figuring out was that a carson wins here i don't remember when the carson wins here was but probably the year before but we um we just didn't get to see that like top tier jonathan taylor again until last year they got the offense figured out with daniel jones and all of a sudden and he was a dominator again.

29:09Mike Wright:It's his best season since 2021, and he was a steal in drafts. He was the RB9 off the board.

29:15Jason Moore:I think you – as someone who, in our league of record, I had Jonathan Taylor, and my goodness, I was ready to sell early in the year. Yeah, you were – Ready to bail. You were soaring with the Eagles. Play for the future, and I'm like, I can't. I've got Jonathan Taylor. He is single-handedly going to win people championships. The first 10 weeks of the season, when their offense was good, he was lapping the field Christian McCaffrey was the running back too at 21.4 points Jonathan Taylor was averaging 25.9 it was so crazy the breakaway runs and the you would be carried by him he was unstoppable and so I think the big question mark for Jonathan Taylor is the health of Daniel Jones we'll we'll know as we get closer to the season what this offense looks like but it really is about it that is the question to me because I I think he could absolutely be the number one running back better than Bijon um if their offense is good if their team is good which that was the surprise last year the Colts were not supposed to be a good team and then it turned out they were the number one seed late into the season well that's two questions then question

30:20Mike Wright:one is will Daniel Jones be healthy and question two is if Daniel Jones is healthy are they a good team? I think so.

30:26Jason Moore:I think that they will be. He is competent enough to allow, like Daniel Jones is competent enough to allow Jonathan Taylor to not just see stacked boxes. And if you don't stack the box against big old Johnny Taylor, he's going right through you.

30:43Mike Wright:Yeah, once Daniel Jones went down, they were, I think, leading the league in points per game at almost 30. They went down to 20 points per game with Rivers and Riley Leonard. We don't know if Daniel Jones is going to be 100 % when the season starts, so that does add some risk to Jonathan Taylor. But in terms of the top-tier names, it's hard not to include him. Number five, James Cook. I have him at four, so I do have him ahead of Jonathan Taylor. Jason and Mike, you both got him at five. James Cook has basically forced himself into this conversation with the consistent play and the way the team is running the football and making that a priority.

31:26Andy Holloway:He is – he's strange because he feels like the anomaly to me. What was that? Anomaly. Oh, okay. Did I say it wrong?

31:34Mike Wright:You said it interestingly. Okay.

31:36Andy Holloway:Well, however I said it, that's what he is because he's an interesting player. You know, Andy ran through the numbers of, like, on average, the running backs in the top 15 top 15 are getting 60 targets Cook is at 40 he's never had 60 this is not someone who's just hitting you with the PPR scam just padding those points at the end of the half or at the end of the game that's not been the game he's so dominant on the ground and the touchdown regression that never showed up they kept using him the same exact way but he feels oh i i james cook is it's frustrating because he feels more fragile to me but then you watch him play football you're like that's dumb you should not have any concerns

32:29Mike Wright:about physically or his his consistency like physically fragile no no no no i'm not even

32:34Andy Holloway:talking about his size i'm talking about how he's utilized in an offense like it he's it's more like

32:39Jason Moore:derrick henry it is a that's a good and he's 190 pounds that's the the weird thing is he's he is not the league right yeah in rushing i believe he did yeah so i mean the other thing

32:49Andy Holloway:that's like like derrick what did i say for cook for targets did i say 40 he had 40 targets yeah the henry's at 21 so i get that's a sizable gap but it's like both of those are not numbers that are that you would typically expect from a guy in the top five he had 11 top 10 finishes so only cmc

33:07Mike Wright:had more which is like the anti-fragility argument is that if you finished in the top 10 that many times you actually were the most reliable he was he was pretty dominant all season long yes he also played every single game so i mean i didn't expect them to pay him and then he would just walk into

33:26Andy Holloway:the shoes that they paid him to to walk into yeah the size of the contract they gave him based off of how much work they were allowing him to take didn't seem to match, and they corrected that.

33:38Jason Moore:I mean, the nice thing is I agree with you, Mike. He's always the scariest pick to me because it's like undersized, not super involved in the passing game. Do not want to play against him, though. No, no. I mean, he's on a great offense. That's the one thing that we know is that Josh Allen and the Bills, they're going to score a lot of touchdowns. So his opportunities to have a lot of touchdowns is much better than, say, B. Jones. But he's always the one that I'm holding my breath when I draft, even though he is literally leading the league in rushing.

34:08Mike Wright:Yeah, I'm trying to change that. That's why I got him where he's at. I think he's, you know, we have consistency on the offense with Brady now. So I'm pretty excited about another solid season from James Cook. I don't think DJ Moore is going to talk me out of him in any capacity. You're always going to have Josh Allen as a threat to steal some of those goal line TDs, but over the last two years it's been wild. Devon ETN at number six. We can't just flip him?

34:41Andy Holloway:No, the deer is going to

34:43Mike Wright:confuse us. See, we had to do it. That's the funny thing about it. We had to do it with A-Chan. Because when he was coming out, he was A-Chan. He was A-Chan, and then he corrected it. So, anything to do with A-Chan gets corrected. Devon A-Chan is 24 years old. I got him at five. Jason and Mike at six. he had 11 plus fantasy points in every single game he played last year. He was the picture of consistency. He was the only one of the only watchable parts of that team.

35:08Jason Moore:I mean, his consistency is outrageous. You look at his, just his game log last year and his worst game was double digit fantasy points. The worst, no real bad games the entire season and a inconsistency. Now he is finding himself in a situation where you expect the offense to be bad. I think that this will be a bottom third offense. However, he is all of it. He's going to catch a million passes this next year, and I don't know how it doesn't work when you are so good at pass catching at the running back position. That's the one area where I think you can be on a poor team and still succeed for fantasy because if you're down, you're just getting dump-offs like crazy.

35:53Mike Wright:1 ,350 rushing yards to go with it. This will be a team with a brand-new quarterback, a brand-new head coach, an offensive coordinator, probably two rookie wide receivers we'll be talking about after the draft. I don't know what their names will be, but they'll probably draft at least two worth talking about because they don't have anybody else. No more Tyreek Hill, no more Jalen Waddell. And we will go into the season really questioning their offensive capability. The nice thing about that is I feel like we're probably only going to be able to be pleasantly surprised with the expectations because you just said it, and you've been saying it all offseason.

36:27Mike Wright:I don't necessarily think the Dolphins are going to suck on offense because they did suck on offense.

36:34Andy Holloway:Right.

36:34Mike Wright:And HM was awesome. So I think that Malik Willis is a – I liked him, right, in the offseason. So I think he – there's the possibility that we get surprised in a positive way. HM, to me, is still one of those guys that can finish at number one at the position. Not everybody's going to agree with that, but I believe it's very possible with his consistency in big plays. So number seven, Omari and Hampton. Okay. All right. Omari and Hampton, I got him at eight. Jason at seven. Mike at 10. A little bit more of a disparity here. He got it going, started to get it going in week three. Najee Harris got hurt.

37:12Mike Wright:Top 10 finishes in weeks three and four. Then he gets hurt in week five, and you don't see him again until week 14. they had established other running backs in the offense he was not fully healthy doesn't really have a big fantasy finish to the year and here he is at seven yeah there it takes a lot of projecting

37:30Jason Moore:here um he hasn't done it yet we don't know that he's going to have the workload um that you would hope to be drafting him as like the running back seven but the projection for me is very easy the dude is awesome. I mean, as a prospect coming out of college, he was a top tier. He's an S-class type of running back to me. The fact that he hasn't done it yet means that I think there will be value in the draft. I don't think he's going to, you know, he could very well finish super high. I think the offense is good. Justin Herbert is good. Their offensive line, they got the best center in the league out of nowhere.

38:08Jason Moore:They're getting their left tackle and right tackle back. I'm just very bullish about the opportunity and the player so it is projection to say I think he's going to get the workload that's the scary part is what if it's what if it's more of a timeshare

38:22Mike Wright:than we hope or want when I was looking at the top 15 running backs and we you know we rank beyond 15 to get to our consensus it was very clear that there's only there's only so many names where you can create the narrative and the path and the story of how it's going to go extremely well from a workload perspective offense touchdown opportunities good team Hampton's in that category there's not you you drop down this list there's certain guys that you just can't make the case that they're going to be everything for their team he certainly could be underdog ADP has him at RB10 that would be kind of the value you're potentially talking about you know in your in your situation this is a borderline first round running back for fantasy

39:02Jason Moore:Yeah, that's how I view him.

39:04Mike Wright:And I can definitely see it. I want it to happen. Let me be very clear. I really want it to happen. I don't know why I'm as nervous, but I think it's just, like you said, we didn't get to see a lot last year. They were handing him the keys. He could have been a fantasy MVP had he been healthy.

39:22Andy Holloway:You didn't see a lot. At the very beginning, when he had to get everything, He wasn't as efficient on the ground. One of his first five games, he had one huge game, the 12 for 128, including a 54-yard run, but it's like each of the other four games, he's 3.7 yards a carry or fewer. Now, they had offensive line struggles. So I think that's all a part of it. And you had, as it seems ridiculous to be like, okay, we're talking about Hampton, a first-round NFL pick. And then we got Kamani Vidal Sassoon, who is just – feels like he should be an afterthought, but he was quite good for the team, and Harbaugh was talking him up quite a bit, although this Harbaugh really talks up his players.

40:14Andy Holloway:They bring in Keaton Mitchell and free agency. I think Hampton's going to be like a workhorse, but I'm a little more hesitant compared to you guys.

40:27Mike Wright:Number eight, Kenneth Walker III. Yeah, baby. Jason and I have him at nine. Mike at seven. Surprise, it's not one. Underdog ADP is nine where Jason and I have him. I've got a few months, Jay.

40:39Andy Holloway:Yeah, let me craft the narrative.

40:41Mike Wright:You know, we've talked, I think, the most about Ken Walker of all the names on this entire list, so I don't know how much we need to get into it. My hesitation is only that it has been lined up for him to succeed many times in the past, and something gets in the way of it in terms of being an every-week dominator as opposed to an occasional week dominator. I think we are all waiting to see, is Mahomes going to be back for week one? Is this offense going to get back on track to be what they are supposed to be? Nine is not disrespectful. Nine is good. I'm happy with nine. It's kind of disrespectful.

41:21Mike Wright:I mean, for the RB22 last year? For the Super Bowl MVP. Oh, my God. Yeah, like Sonny Michel. Wow.

41:29Jason Moore:You really liked Sonny Michel after it was a Super Bowl MVP.

41:31Mike Wright:I did, and I learned my lesson, and I've changed. You went in on the wrong guy.

41:34Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, this is obviously tough. It should work. It should work. Everything's lined up for him. You know, his rookie year, he was the running back 16, then the running back 19, last year the running back 22, and there's always been, whether it's injury or Charbonnet or whatever, something getting in his way. the money they gave him was so much that i just don't i don't think that there's any world where he doesn't dominate total touches he could still get injured but on a good offense with andy reed with that investment i am in i am willing to get hurt yeah there we go that a guy i say all this

42:16Mike Wright:i mean i've got he's he's one of my keepers mike my guy you know what i mean my keeper sure so i I'd love to have you dunk on me all year long while he scores points for me.

42:26Andy Holloway:I wonder what the targets will look like. Because I went back to look. So Kareem Hunt, year two for him, which that was essentially Mahomes' first year. So not his rookie year, but his sophomore year. And going from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt dropped from 63 to 35 targets. Now, there's a game disparity, but that's the only way I think it goes sour. If we're not getting a 10 % target share, then you'll be more like the running back 10.

43:02Mike Wright:Okay. Yeah, that'll be something. And that might – what happens in the draft, whether it's Sadiq or Lemon or Tyson or – Or Jordan or Jeremiah Love. Or Jeremiah Love. Oh, that'll make a difference. Oh, man. I don't want to see that because it's terrible for fantasy. It's terrible for both players. My mental health. But I will laugh profusely for so long. I mean, God forbid that Chase Brown and Kenneth Walker are impacted. Mike will lose it. We'll take a quick break. We'll come back with the rest.

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44:13Mike Wright:All right, Foot Clan, whether you are on the go or at home, T-Mobile, well, they're built to keep you connected wherever you're scouting your fantasy team. And that on-the-go part, that is important. With America's Best Network, you'll be connected to the latest news and player projections so when you're on the clock, you can draft a winning team. I can think of so many situations where that element of being connected while you're on the go is fundamental to fantasy football success. I'm in the midst of multiple leagues right now where I am responding to trade offers. We are massaging the trade offer.

44:44Mike Wright:We want to make sure that I'm the one that gets the player, not another player manager in our league. So trade offers, when you're on the go, all the news that's breaking so you don't make a mistake. And my favorite thing, maybe I'll mention it. Look, you're sitting and you have a quiet moment somewhere out and about. You want to jump in the UDK. We got the player profiles. You can watch all of those in there with T-Mobile. You can jump in on the player projections and our stat projections and all the 130 ,000 words of content. Again, T-Mobile making that easy to do. Every bit of news. Things are changing all the time.

45:17Mike Wright:New player contracts, all that good stuff. So from off-season to game day, every play is better with T-Mobile. What you got to do is visit T-Mobile.com slash network. Fastest is based on analysis by Ookla of speed test intelligence data of national speed score results for the second half of 2025. The best mobile network in the U.S. is based on analysis by Ookla of speed test intelligence data, second half of 2025.

45:46Mike Wright:We are continuing our top 15 early running back rankings. Number nine, Ashton Jenty. I've got him at seven. Jason at eight. Mike dumping on him at 12. Not surprising. but just based on some of the conversations we've had and the concerns that you've had for, I think, a committee backfield and, again, that are you on a good team factor, both of those kind of came true last year. I mean, Ashton Gentry, he suffered under the thumb of the league's worst team. I mean, they got the number one pick. They have Fernando Mendoza on the way for a reason. He had to be a part of a putrid, abysmal offense all year long.

46:32Mike Wright:So some might look at the RB12 finish as a rookie and say, that's darn impressive for that, to be on that team. Because what did we say? The average team wins nine games to be a top 15 running back. He was the RB12. On the team that got the number one pick. So I lean a little bit to that glass half full side of things.

46:50Andy Holloway:I mean, the hard part for that is the way you overcome being on a bad team is workload and Ashton Gentry was 39 % of the team's rushing attempts and targets that that is McCaffrey Johnny Taylor and Bijon are the only running backs who had a higher percentage so he was the entirety of the running back position and and because the team was so bad that's you only had a couple spike weeks from Gentry and he he didn't finish as he was drafted as you had hoped The offensive line was putrid. Now they've got Linda Baum from the Ravens. That certainly helps, but the metrics on their offensive line is pretty close to dead last in yards before contact, stuff rate, rush success rate.

47:41Andy Holloway:These things were all bad for running backs behind this line. And the stat that you're alluding to, Andy. So running backs with a rookie quarterback over the last decade, teams with a rookie QB who have started 10 or more games, a.k.a. their rookie quarterback is their full-time starter. The running back one for those teams averaged seven and a half total touchdowns. That's a very scary number when you're looking at the other running backs who are in this range.

48:10Mike Wright:The thing with him is it might not be Mendoza for a while. And we do like the new head coach, Kubiak coming in. Yes, I agree.

48:19Andy Holloway:It's just how long until Mendoza comes in.

48:22Jason Moore:It could be the year. When Kirk Cousins is there, one of the things that was great about Gentey and the usage that you were just alluding to is that Geno Smith checked the ball down a lot. Geno Smith would throw. I don't know that Mendoza will do that as a rookie to the same degree, but Kirk Cousins will. Kirk Cousins will check it down a ton. I think the touchdown totals could be higher, and hopefully you get half a season before that transition is made.

48:45Andy Holloway:End of year, Bijan was excellent. Yes. And that was Kirk Cousins as the quarterback on a bad team.

48:52Jason Moore:I definitely believe that Cubes wants a committee here. I do not believe he can do it. They don't have, there's not a free agent to sign right now that could hurt him. And really, this is not a running back class where nine days from now, I'm afraid of what happens to Gentry. So I think he will have a solid workload, and obviously he has the talent to be talked about as just a pure running back like B. John, like Gibbs.

49:25Mike Wright:It's a big part of it is believing in the talent that he possesses. Number 10 is Chase Brown. I've got him at 10, Jason at 10, Mike at 9. Underdog has him at RB13, so we're above at least best ball ADP with Chase Brown. I'll bet people are afraid of the draft. I'm afraid of the draft with Chase Brown. I think Chase Brown was last year. It's very fair. I was afraid last year, and we came out unscathed, and he ended up being the worst player in fantasy for a few weeks until Mike could acquire him, and he could dominate for the rest of the year.

49:56Andy Holloway:I put a call in. Yeah. I was like, dude, Jake Brown, get him in there.

50:00Mike Wright:Tank your value real quick, and that'd be awesome. I mean, he was a true workhorse. The RB7, averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game on 100 total yards per game from week six on. first five weeks very powerful in the psyche of fantasy football players they make a big impact we just talked about tucker craft it felt like tucker craft was a part of a like a majority of last year yeah he wasn't he was a part of like six weeks but those first six weeks with all the anticipation that's it makes a big deal a big impact on fantasy players so chase brown started slow ended hot was truly dominant and if he's alone he should be fine if he's alone he's fine

50:41Jason Moore:I mean, this is the player definitely most liable. I am terrified for his value. If Love were to fall to 10, which I know is not likely, but if that happens, they will take him. This is a team that has brought in a lot of running backs for top 30 visits. So they are looking at this position as one of a position of need. And, you know, I know I just said that this isn't a great draft class for the running back position, but there are a couple of guys out here that, I mean, I just don't think Chase Brown can be great if he's not getting a ton of work. I don't think you're going to like him in fantasy as a 50-50 guy.

51:23Mike Wright:They did bring back P. Ryan, who was an addition later in the season last year.

51:30Andy Holloway:Yeah, so P. Ryan and they've drafted Taj Brooks.

51:36Mike Wright:Last year. Yeah, as we are going through this argument, there were Brooks supporters who were like, that was it.

51:45Andy Holloway:That's the guy that's going to come in and fully disrupt this backfield and take over and make Chase Brown irrelevant.

51:55Andy Holloway:Let's say it's round three, Jay. It's round three. It's a guy you already don't like. Are you going to let that influence how you feel about Chase Brown here?

52:05Jason Moore:I think I would. If it's round three, meaning day two, if it's a day two pick, yeah, that will lower him in my rankings. Even if it's Mike Washington in round three, I'll be like, yeah, they're not drafting him to not give him the work. Taj was what, like fifth round, sixth round? He was day three. Yeah, I mean, they didn't invest in him, a sixth round pick. So that would be very different to me if they use a top three pick on a running back.

52:38Mike Wright:I think I'm, while I'm a little bit afraid, I think Chase Brown is probably going to be okay. And I think that this team would be wise to go into the season leaning on him for another year versus drafting a non-defensive player. It's like, if love is there, I get it.

53:00Andy Holloway:Yes. I totally get it. Yes, that will end it for him. Other than that, so right now the Bengals have picked 10, 41, and 72. 41 won't be Price. He'll be gone already. And just for this team, what they need on the defensive side of the football would be. Which is 11 new guys.

53:21Mike Wright:I think we had a pretty similar discussion about Chase Brown last year. Yes. That's the funny thing. We were looking for the big name to ruin it, but they didn't waste the pick there. And they were fine. So, you know, I think we tried for a lot of years to make Kyron not a thing. Like Kyron's going to, and it just kept happening. I don't know if that'll be the case here. Number 11 is Josh Jacobs, who I feel like, you know, he's got his own little CMC light story going to a degree where, like, you know, you had the down year in Las Vegas. You want to be out on him. He's not the new hotness. He's the old busted, but he just plain gets it done.

54:02Mike Wright:This is clearly the key cog in the entire offense for Green Bay. They just traded away two wide receivers. Are you going to bank on Jaden Reed, who's always hurt, Matthew Golden, who's never done it, and Christian Watson, who's always hurt? Or are you going to bank on Josh Jacobs being the kind of centerpiece of this backfield once again?

54:21Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, 15 touchdowns two years ago, 13 touchdowns last year. He is their goal line machine. that's going to be pretty important for scoring fantasy points. I feel like I'm too low on Josh Jacobs.

54:33Mike Wright:I do too. I do too. Mike's got him at 8. We both got him at 12. I don't like it.

54:36Andy Holloway:I was pretty surprised. But this cluster of players, when you don't have your actual stats for them, it is difficult.

54:47Mike Wright:Yeah, it is. It is because we've been around the block with Josh Jacobs. You'd love to find the narrative. This is where it scares me the most. Hampton, Jacobs. Right. That situation could be one of the most like clearly you should take.

55:03Andy Holloway:I don't want to play with you anymore. Yeah, you should just take Jacobs.

55:07Mike Wright:That's the answer to that. But no one's going to do that first. Right. I'll take Hampton. Hampton's going to go ahead of Jacobs in every draft.

55:13Jason Moore:What if this year he could score 13 or 15 touchdowns, you know? Right.

55:18Mike Wright:Right. Exactly. I mean, because we have them ranked this way. And then I was like, if I was like, hey, you know, you got to draft one of these guys. and you've got to guarantee their fantasy production is higher than the other one. If I've got a guarantee. And your life's on the line.

55:30Jason Moore:Yeah, I'm taking Josh Jacobs.

55:31Mike Wright:You're taking Jacobs.

55:33Jason Moore:Yeah. These are like the silly ones sometimes.

55:37Mike Wright:So be careful. Jacobs is just a machine. The offense is good. I mean, I just mentioned Matthew Golden and two hurt wide receivers. Well, guess what his depth chart is? It's Marshawn Lloyd, guys. Marshawn Lloyd looked at another guy pulling his hamstring, and that pulled his hamstring. He went, yo! It was a mirror. He's an empath, man. Yeah, it's like the people that throw up when someone else is throwing up. He pulls his hamstring if somebody else is pulling his hamstring.

56:00Andy Holloway:Yep, you have Emmanuel Wilson is a Seattle Seahawk. I mean, check this. They got it. Add somebody here. It would be surprising if Green Bay is like, okay, we'll go one more time into the year believing that Marshawn Lloyd's going to be the backup.

56:19Mike Wright:I'm sure they hope.

56:20Andy Holloway:They hope he was. He was, what, a third-round pick two years ago, we've really not seen him.

56:26Mike Wright:Now the next two names, we'll lump them together. 12 and 13, Saquon and Henry.

56:30Andy Holloway:Oh, man.

56:31Mike Wright:Saquon at 12. Saw 300-plus opportunities. He's done that for four straight years. Saw 50 targets. Cool. The Eagles' offensive line is elite, but they were missing a key piece of their line for the majority of the season. It was a down year big time for Saquon. He's now the RB8 in best ball, so we are low on him as well. And that's another one. Hampton or Saquon. You look at that situation and you're... You can at least say, look at last year. Yeah, you can. It was trouble. And A.J. Brown, if he's out the door, do we figure out the offense? I don't know. It's still Saquon Barkley is my point. It's a hard name to pass on.

57:12Jason Moore:It is. I think having a down year, you know, he'll turn 30 this year. That's a little scary. You know, we talked ad nauseum coming off of his RB1 finish two years ago about the efficiency and what happens after that much work. He had a massive workload going deep into the playoffs. And, you know, it was unsurprising. Now, was that all Lane Johnson? Was that, you know, missing Lane Johnson? And once he's back, it's all fixed and it's a great offense. They changed the offensive coordinator, which helped a couple years ago. So there's ways that it could get corrected. but I guess I don't expect the efficiency to get better as he gets older.

57:56Jason Moore:It should get worse as he gets older. And so I would like to have Saquon, but I don't think he's going to be a top three back. Yeah, the biggest counterpoint is the guy that we're talking about next

58:10Mike Wright:who's 32 years old. He's never slowed down. Okay, that might be fair. Derrick Henry is still playing running back in the NFL. Bill. He's 32.2 years old. We've been talking about him being old for five years.

58:26Andy Holloway:Because he's been old for five years.

58:28Mike Wright:He was the RB7 and listen to the fantasy. I mean, look at the fantasy finishes from week six on, right? That's when the old guys get better, right? The later part of the year.

58:36Jason Moore:Well, that's when the weather gets colder.

58:38Mike Wright:10, 8, 9, 23, 6, 5, 10, 23, 19, 8, 1, 11. So from week six on just, I mean, guys, he was on pace for 1 ,800 yards. He's not going to catch the football.

58:51Jason Moore:23-19? That was an issue.

58:53Mike Wright:I mean, wait, what?

58:55Jason Moore:I don't know. I didn't hear it. Yeah, you were going down through your list of all his rankings, 5, 10, 23-19. 23-19 is a big issue. It's a code red. That's a human sock.

59:10Andy Holloway:Oh, this is a monster, Zink? Wow. You got me. You just out-pop cultured me, bro. Is that being out-cultured? Yeah. Yeah. Pop culture. Oof. I want to leave the show.

59:27Mike Wright:14, 14, 13. Derek Henry. Yeah.

59:32Andy Holloway:Who's going to do it? Who's got the stones? Who's got the stones to say we're done?

59:39Mike Wright:I don't think it's over. I mean, you could say... The aforementioned... Harbaugh and Sconn. Maybe they mix it up a little bit committee-wise?

59:48Andy Holloway:They lost their center. Oh, yeah, that's a big deal. They lost their fullback, Patrick Ricard.

59:54Mike Wright:Let me ask you this. Are the Ravens going to be bad? Because that's possible. It's possible the Ravens aren't good. If the Ravens are good, Henry is good. We've seen this his whole career.

1:00:02Jason Moore:Yeah, I think the Ravens are good because they have Lamar Jackson. I mean, if you've got a great quarterback, it's very difficult to have a great quarterback and be a bad football team. It can be done, but it's rare.

1:00:12Mike Wright:So the bad year in Tennessee, the single bad year in Tennessee, he played eight games. He probably would have been fine. He probably would have been fine. Yes. He's played 17 games three consecutive years. His body is a wonderland. A temple. It's spectacular. But they do have significant offensive line fullback situations.

1:00:34Andy Holloway:Ravens projected win total is 11.5.

1:00:37Mike Wright:Don't they still need to pay Lamar?

1:00:39Andy Holloway:That's coming up.

1:00:40Mike Wright:I believe they still need to pay Lamar. I don't know. This feels like maybe they get that passing game going.

1:00:44Jason Moore:The nice thing is he's not a new hot sexy name so he'll be lower in the draft you're you're talking about you know maybe having a value i would guess he's near the back of the second right now he is the back of the second rb12 yeah so if i can get him near the two three turn i feel like he will out produce

1:01:04Mike Wright:that last two names on the top 15 andy real quick it's what i'm going to say in a bit they he's got

1:01:10Andy Holloway:this year and next year under contract. Next year, though, the cap... For Lamar? For Lamar, Skyrock is the$84 million. Yeah, like he's good.

1:01:19Mike Wright:This is the negotiation window.

1:01:20Andy Holloway:Right. I'm just saying, like, they can go through the entire year and not do anything technically. He won't be back if they do that. But that would be dumb. So, yeah, expect a new contract for Lamar relatively soon.

1:01:35Mike Wright:Last two names, Travis A. Chan Jr., Javante Williams to finish our top 15 early rankings um A-chan is going to be the guy on a team that we are curious about in New Orleans Jason yeah Jason has him at 18 Mike

1:01:55Jason Moore:has him at 13 I don't 15 I've I've always been the hater I don't know you love him you're the

1:02:02Mike Wright:highest yeah are you against you don't like the name change if i i think alvin camara is going

1:02:07Jason Moore:to be more involved than than we then we think right now so you do believe he'll be involved yes yeah i mean that that's the question that is all of it to me the entirety of my low travis etn ranking is i think hn oh my gosh travis hn i would say i'm going to throw out a suggestion

1:02:26Andy Holloway:try going hn jr okay that's what i did you notice that because at least i was throwing the junior in there to get a new memory she'll know and then it like we can Travis H.

1:02:35Jason Moore:Chan Jr. Yeah. His one of his best abilities for especially for fantasy is is catching the ball but that is shared with Alvin Kamara and I think Kamara will be involved in the passing game in a way that it hurts. He was H. And Jr. No he was not good. There's a reason the team went over for Kamara. The team went out and paid a ton of money for Travis H. chan jr and so you would think that means he will be the guy usually almost universally when a contract of that size is given out to a running back they inherit the vast majority uh lion's share of the workload and it seemed like when it happened that people were saying that camara is not even going to play like maybe retire walk away whatever but then it came out that he's going to play and I just don't think they're going to take this Saints legend and be like

1:03:30Mike Wright:ride the bench you're not involved well there is a middle ground to of retirement and the expectation that he plays on the Saints there have been a lot of trade rumors that have surfaced regarding Alvin Kamara in recent days including and this one maybe you guys would be okay with it's a lot better than Jeremiah Love going to your Giants it's Alvin Kamara going to the Giants to solidify that backfield that's one of the big trade rumors that have come out recently i don't think that you pick up travis h and jr with a plan to keep camara that's still my view that's why i haven't ranked higher than jason that way too if you go into the season and h and looks like he's going to be there with camara i'm going to lower him in my rankings i agree with all the principles of your ranking being if camara is involved because you can't not use camara in

1:04:20Andy Holloway:the receiving game the the way out i would see for the saints is you have what year two of coach kellen moore who all all he knows as a coach was camara not being very good like he it's like does he feel that i owe this player and when we've we just gave hn junior a truckload of cash so i'm Sure. Until that's confirmed, I'm going to keep betting on HNJ. I think he's going to be solid.

1:04:53Mike Wright:It's such a weird thing to spend that kind of money in free agency without a definitive plan for that situation. Do you think it was just an acquisition of opportunity?

1:05:03Andy Holloway:I think so.

1:05:04Mike Wright:Just like, oh, we can get this guy, so let's do it?

1:05:06Andy Holloway:Because he's from the area. And then we'll figure it out? I would think it was, hey, yeah. They got a phone call. I was like, no, you can actually get him if you offer him money.

1:05:16Jason Moore:and they went oh really and they and they know that kamara's not good right kamara's old they have to have a replacement for him even if it's not this year it could be more delayed dennis

1:05:25Andy Holloway:allen was like don't you dare give kendra miller a chance and they listen javante williams the final

1:05:32Mike Wright:name whatever surgent last season they went out and they signed him to an extension he was third in yards after contact per attempt he is maybe the least sexy player you can draft and yet is so deserving of a pick and will contribute every week i feel like he is such a locked in rb2 for fantasy where that's you know he's not going to carry your team but he's also not going to

1:05:58Jason Moore:kill you ever no i mean he had 1200 yards double digit touchdowns on the ground over 300 opportunities Even though he is the least efficient pass-catching running back of our generation. He's just going to get it.

1:06:13Mike Wright:51 targets and turn that into 137 yards?

1:06:17Jason Moore:Yeah, just terrible. Wow. Less than three?

1:06:21Mike Wright:Yeah, less than four.

1:06:23Jason Moore:I mean, that's just awful. And really, he's done this for a long time. He was doing the same with the Denver Broncos.

1:06:30Mike Wright:That's the fewest yards for any player with 50 targets in the last 40 years.

1:06:36Jason Moore:Yeah, that's what it seemed like.

1:06:38Andy Holloway:I mean. But they're going to continue. I was like, Chuba Hubbard had to look at them and be like, that's amazing, Chivante, because Chuba was 54 targets into 171 yards. And that was bad.

1:06:52Mike Wright:Well, this is worse. Yeah, yeah. I mean, but we saw this the year before, and he doubled down. Look, he's just a tried-and-true, solid running back. I mean, some of our other early rankings, just to throw the names out there, Bucky Irving came in at 18 in our consensus. Travion Henderson came in at 20. Scott at 21. Judkins at 22. The aforementioned Chuba down at 24. Technically, is there another couple players tied with this spot? I guess technically Kyron and Brees Hall are in that same conversation as well. So we will be going through our early wide receiver rankings on the Thursday episode of the show.

1:07:29Mike Wright:So make sure you join us for that. You can follow us on Instagram, instagram.com slash fantasy footballers. And we got some stuff planned in the next few weeks before the draft gets started. Man, I got to correct myself. It's nine days away. It's not 10. Okay. Nine days away. Nine days away. Closer by the moment. And no, it should be fun. I'm excited. I want to see where Mendoza goes. I have no idea. All right, that'll do it. Jason, you can practice your Travis A. Chan Jr. in the mirror. Yeah, I'm going to need to do that a lot. Maybe he'll come out and say, never mind. I hope so. See you.

1:08:06Jason Moore:Goodbye.

1:08:10Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

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1:08:58Andy Holloway:On September 25th. No one's coming for us. It's just you and me, boy. 58 miles. Part of the beast is the must-see adventure of the year. An incredible story of survival. I got you. One of the most extraordinary on-screen bonds you'll ever see. Only the greatest dog to ever walk the I'll get you home. Heart of the Beast. Pauline Theater, September 25th. Rated PG-13.

1:09:26Jason Moore:Maybe inappropriate for children under 13.