Fantasy Football - Ice & Fire Picks + Undrafted Gems - Podcast for 8/5

13:26Mike Wright:over 30 years old for a running back so a couple washington guys woody marks undrafted gyms for this week who knew walmart could get you what you needed in as fast as an hour get free delivery on your first express delivery order with the code express valid for first express delivery order 50 minimum subject to availability restrictions apply

13:48Jason Moore:News and notes from around the league presented by Progressive Insurance

13:56Mike Wright:Alright, we are digging into the news and this is big time Jason, you've been waiting with bated breath here

14:06Jason Moore:I've been a long supporter of Kyron Williams and I believe I just said recently I think he will get his contract extension in this year, and he did. Three years,$33 million extension with$23 million guaranteed. This is so good. If you've got him in Dynasty, you have to be thrilled, but I also think in redraft it really just confirms that this is their guy. Last year they go out and they draft Corum and everyone's scared, and then it was even more all Kyron than Corum. This year it's like, oh, Jarquez, they drafted another guy. They're going to use Kyron.

14:45Andy Holloway:The people have really moved past Blake Corum with lightning speed. Oh, yeah. Who? Like last year, a third-round running back who was going to take Kyron's job per the Blake Corum truthers, and you're like, well, no, now that we've got a guy drafted even later. But he's the guy.

15:03Jason Moore:He's going to take Kyron's job. It's weird. Yeah, no one's taking Kyron's job unless Kyron gets injured. Kyron is a very good player. He fits this system perfectly. He's a touchdown machine. so I'm just happy that this came through and I want to say good job on both sides here it's rare when a running back gets a big extension where it's like yeah that was a good that was a good idea from both sides Kyron wasn't going to get much more than this if he tested the free agent market next year and the Rams didn't break the bank here this is not they're not paying Kyron like he is Saquon Barkley good job good job Rams yeah yeah it's uh it's nice to have him

15:43Mike Wright:in the fold getting paid cemented as the bell cow we have brown's quarterback updates which is pretty much that every player on this team has been hurt except for joe flacco i mean kenny pickett dylan gabriel shadur sanders all have dealt with injuries protect him at all costs joe flacco is listed as the starter on the depth chart um everybody else is banged up the browns had to go sign tyler huntley which you'd think they wouldn't need to do with four quarterbacks so but they did it really seems like joe flack is going to have a huge opportunity here cedric tillman has been making waves in camp um deontay johnson has been making waves in camp like give me that week one bangles match i mean jerry judy obviously had the great close to the year so look i i made some adjustments to my projections for quarterback distribution of of work on the course of the year in the udk so this is what we want we want joe flacko yes we do we want it especially if we're david njoku fans yes i am yep that is a huge huge upgrade for him the most of all in my opinion i agree so very excited about that uh we are going to talk more about this team later on in the show but new orleans nick underhill great reporter for new orleans now it's you know spencer rattler is clearly out playing tyler shuck in camp um that's not hayner had snaps i mean I kind of hesitate to get into more detail of my thoughts here because I want to talk about it later in the show.

17:09Mike Wright:That's just the headline right now. One, the major TLDR here, one of the not good quarterbacks is leading in camp.

17:18Jason Moore:Which usually means one of the not good quarterbacks is actually flopping. That's probably what it is.

17:26Mike Wright:Somebody has to be the best.

17:28Andy Holloway:The hope is that Shuck is better than we think.

17:32Jason Moore:or just spencer rattler well that's the hope coming into the years is shuck and then if

17:38Andy Holloway:spencer rattler is clearly better than him per reports yeah you can shut this season right in

17:43Mike Wright:the garbage can yeah probably uh the vikings bracing for a roughly three game suspension for addison that sounds right you know a lot of people have wondered like why have we not had these suspensions yet handed down for addison for rashi rice um that the league normally takes a little bit more time with these but gives them clarity before the season begins so near the end

18:04Jason Moore:of training camp yeah near the end of training camp yep you got it all right uh other injury

18:10Mike Wright:news chris godwin which uh that's big time news according to the bucks general manager he's exactly where they wanted him to be but that does not mean he will be available in week one that's

18:20Jason Moore:just what we wanted i mean we it's what we wanted and hoped we hoped he might not be ready for week one get out of here i mean so good i'm happy that they aren't concerned but obviously they're not

18:34Mike Wright:counting them out but they believe he could miss at least a couple games to start the season that means i'm counting him out of my draft unless it's a really late ir stash situation but i you know we brought it up like i we talked about it a little bit yesterday but i mean i think eg buka could i think he could legitimately be the number one ride receiver on this team i am all in from week one all the way through like Mike Evans is in the twilight of his career and he's great he's a really good player but he's not a volume player right he's not a need someone with juice yeah I mean Mike Evans is good for you know 65 to 70 catches and maybe he gets double digit touchdowns but this is this is fresh legs this is a player that Jason absolutely adored coming out of college refined route runner all the praise at camp and um just set up i mean godwin is confusing because they gave him the money but we've seen him recovery from injury recover from injury it wasn't good we got a new play caller it's just like eg buka is sitting there as a super late round pick and um people probably want me to stop talking about him so that he stays there but I think he's going to be valuable Isaac Gurindo going to miss a few weeks in practice because the 49ers need to pick three or four running backs to miss camp time and he's one

19:53Jason Moore:of the ones they picked yeah this is this is important news I don't know that he's ready to start the season and obviously Christian McCaffrey's backup has always been very valuable Jordan Mason was a you know one of the most important fantasy assets last year in his replacement we have another Jordan up Jordan James get get used to the name because it'll probably be said a lot if you're there a little earlier um he's the next guy up out of Oregon out of a fifth round pick out of Oregon pretty pretty good player he's not like a a burner but um you know last year in Oregon over a thousand yards 15 rushing touchdowns which is one of those stats we look at for uh rookie running backs making the transition to the NFL for fantasy success so um yeah uh if CMC is made of you know peanut brittle you gotta be aware of who the

20:40Mike Wright:backup is he's not he's made of titanium oh mike oh mike i hope you're right i feel a lot more

20:46Jason Moore:confident with my bijon in destruction comments than than your christian mccaffrey hope yeah

20:54Mike Wright:no no bijons do no two-fifths of the time is great that's a high percentage uh naji harris walking laps as part of his rehab not sure how that gets his eye back but um i hope it's at least brisk yeah like you can't sprint like genuine question if you're with a bad eye with a bad

21:11Andy Holloway:eye you can't maybe it hurts maybe depth perception maybe i don't know have it be on a field you don't

21:18Mike Wright:have to be running like around corners i am so bummed about this news i feel like a little bit of a fantasy reaper here mason taylor has suffered a high ankle sprain jets rookie tight end who's going to start from week one who i love who is i think a steal in drafts and now is going to miss some time with a high ankle sprain it's brutal and a bummer and so he's not he's not the only rookie dealing with some injuries terrence ferguson has an injury which i think really hurts him with the rams because higby is there it's not like at least with mason taylor i think when he's healthy he'll be the starter right away because that's what he's going to be and the depth chart behind him is not worth worrying about.

22:03Mike Wright:But Higby? I mean, absolutely. Ferguson could have like a redshirt year if he needed it.

22:08Jason Moore:Ferguson and Mason Taylor are really sad. This time of year when rookies miss time, it impacts their ability to start the year. Hot Cam Scadaboo is another one who's currently – Yeah, it bums me out, man. Big time. You know, he was looking great. So that sucks. with mason taylor gone um they are expecting a 75 percent market share for garrett wilson three out of every four passes will have to go his way yeah i mean then they'll throw it to

22:35Mike Wright:josh reynolds for a second and be like oh that wasn't very fun yeah honestly this is you know

22:41Jason Moore:terrible news but breeze hall might be the one that gets your bump um you know if you're missing the tight end develop more of those little screen games the uh you know there is a lot of negativity

22:51Andy Holloway:on Justin Fields floating out on the Twitter sphere right now, putting up his completion percentages, and offense has been terrible. And that, to me, is he's trying to throw to the other guys. And then when the game starts, he's going to say, screw that crap, I'm going to throw it to Garrett Wilson. It's not helping Justin Fields lose to Mason Taylor, I'll tell you that. No, it's not.

23:11Mike Wright:Devin Neal suffered a hamstring strain, will miss multiple weeks for the Saints. He's a rookie running back. so right now it's alvin camara and can i say his name you can say oh yeah of course kendra miller yes who's a dude dude dude kendra miller has just torn his hamstring yeah no i i like the player he just his body is paper mache this time last year you were you were uh talking about their head coach quite a bit yeah who won that one yes so who did not like kendra miller yeah dennis allen was not a fan of his players all right that was news and notes sponsored by progressive insurance quote today at progressive.com progressive casualty insurance company affiliates and third-party insurers not available in all states or situations coverage subject to policy terms limits and conditions we'll take a break and then it's ice and fire time

24:13Mike Wright:Well, it only comes around once a year. It's one of my favorite shows. It's time.

24:28Jason Moore:Ice and Fire.

24:39Mike Wright:All right, we each get to reveal a fire pick, a breakout candidate, and an ice selection here on the show, somebody we think winter is coming for in the upcoming year. I'll go ahead and start. I wasn't necessarily going to, but we talked about it earlier a little bit, so let's just roll right into it. The player I'm going to talk about has been just a player of potential, great potential. great hope and optimism in fantasy football worlds a player that was was in uh maybe still is to some degree a dynasty target right somebody that you want oh this was a a man on

25:21Andy Holloway:on the rocket ship to being a top 10 dynasty just there forever and so uh sometimes reality

25:28Mike Wright:is difficult to accept for the fantasy football community in particular the player i'm talking about is wide receiver Chris Olave, who unfortunately is not somebody I believe in, in any regard.

25:43Jason Moore:It makes me so sad.

25:46Mike Wright:I am here today to step upon, with a forceful heavy boot, the final hopes you have for this player. We talked about the wide receiver situation. I like to bring up the fact that good teams can become bad teams and bad teams can become good teams. the parody in the NFL. It's incredible. It's what makes the NFL exciting is you can have teams that come out of nowhere like the commanders and they're awesome. But there are some situations that are so obviously not going to work as well. And the, the new Orleans saints offense is one of those situations to the detriment of Chris Olave. This is year four for Chris Olave.

26:30Mike Wright:And, um, you You can look at him, and you have to look at him in a very isolated way. You have to look at him on a per-play basis or a per-game basis because he's missed a tremendous amount of time with injury and concussions, which you can go ahead and put that at the very top in the story of Chris Olave is that at any moment, if he suffers a concussion this year, you are talking about an extended absence. That is 100 % the headline.

26:56Jason Moore:As someone who has had him for years, has him in Dynasty, and is always terrified. That is the elephant in the room. It's the nuclear button option that most players don't have.

27:09Mike Wright:Yeah, you don't want a player that if they suffer what is a fairly routine thing that happens in the NFL, you're going to miss maybe four or five, six games, maybe an extended period of time. Who's to say, based on their record, which right now they're, I think, projected to be the worst team in football, at what point of the season, if that happens again, and does he miss the rest of the season? Like, that is hanging over Chris Olave. But the story around, hey, do you want to take that shot on him in the sixth round, which is where he's going right now, at least on sleeper and an underdog, the story is also this offense in general.

27:42Mike Wright:And the fact that you have Jake Hayden. I don't know, man.

27:44Jason Moore:I've heard that Spencer Rattler is outplaying competition right now. Yeah.

27:49Mike Wright:I mean, this is one of those, like, don't look at it like the commanders that can suddenly become a great team. Look at it like what we thought about the Giants offense last year going into the season, where you knew you weren't going to get surprised by their production.

28:06Jason Moore:But Malik Nabors was top ten.

28:07Mike Wright:Malik Nabors was very good. But unfortunately, the kind of player that Chris Olave is, who's the more explosive player? Chris Olave or Rashid Shahid on the other side? Shahid was a player that, okay, you get an explosive play, and it's very valuable to you. chris alave has become this player who you know on a per route basis is getting worse and worse in production um and that's not what you want to see you find that like a couple years ago we saw that the season with derrick carr where it's like man you know what some stuff is just not working and you can't lay it all at the feet of derrick carr like derrick carr last year had a higher percentage of his games finishing as a top six quarterback than patrick mahomes did but you still saw the benefits going to rashid shaheed and you got Brandon Cooks who still is probably you know he's going to be a piece of the offense you got tight ends in the equation and you've got a team that's probably going to be in the bottom third and scoring now maybe they surprise a little bit if they do it's going to have to involve no they're going to surprise you worse I mean it's really it's really going to be a difficult thing for Chris Olave to get into the end zone because it's always been a difficult thing when their team was good i mean he has five receptions inside the 10 since he got to the league he's never been a top that is five in 39 games he's never been what top five on a week no no i he is a name that that betrays the reality of his situation anymore and you you shut up shut up just just shut just shut your mouth i still do i still believe that he is a great player i don't think great is the right word i don't i don't i don't think that it's not justifiable statistically to me i think you can say good you could say the best of the saints he's definitely the best wide receiver i don't know if that's for sure i don't i don't think i think rashid shaheed has a skill set in different areas of the field that i like a lot more and we all were like Why is Derek Hart throwing him the football and not Olave?

30:12Mike Wright:And it happened for two years. So I think you're probably right. I think it should be Olave. He's more well-rounded. But he also showed that, look, lack of concentration on certain routes. He had some drops. He's got the concussion issue. He's got Shuck and Rattler and Hayner. Like, that is a law firm. That ain't a quarterback room.

30:28Jason Moore:I have no problem bypassing. I got a snake, man.

30:31Mike Wright:Oh, Spencer. That's a reason for Spencer Rattler to be back out there.

30:34Jason Moore:Yeah, I have no problem passing on Chris Olave in a draft. there's so much risk it's a very easy clear path to see how it goes wrong but at the same time when he is on the field he's not a boom guy but he's very consistent i believe he's an a and r consistency metric because he's the first target he's going to have a great target share of an nfl offense whoever the quarterback is when he's healthy he will be someone that will be that should be started every week well the nice thing is he's going to give you 10 and a half 11 and a

31:04Mike Wright:half points it is it's helpful for him that our consistency throws out the injuries yes because i'm sure that that 17 game span is about a four-year span that's how it feels and and you know he has been very good but he's had a lot better quarterback play so i i'm very very hesitant it's gone the wrong direction fancy points for game last year was at seven when he did play and that was with better quarterback performances i mean it's disappointing and maybe he's the terry mclaurin dj more of his uh the stage of his career where he's just a really good player in a really bad situation but i i gotta i gotta bring this to the attention of the foot clan i had no idea brooks is brooks hates crystal love is that is that the truth

31:48Jason Moore:that's what i'm learning how are you learning the the kindest sweetest most gentle uh loving people love her of course he's just he never is in slack he's just in slack right now hammering

32:03Mike Wright:he just threw another one out there he says he likes players who can get 20 fantasy points because chris olavi has never done it in 39 games that says something you know who has

32:13Jason Moore:rashid shaheed tell you that oh man all right man good as well go get him brooks yeah bury him under the ice the most fire i've ever seen out of brooks is anti chris olavi all right someone

32:27Mike Wright:who's had chris olavi before i promise that's probably true yeah let's uh let's move it on

32:33Andy Holloway:I'm jumping in I got a running back he plays for the New England Patriots there's two of them that we need to talk about which one am I going to go this will be a clue fire it ain't Ramondre Stevenson that bum we're talking about Travion Henderson the absolute electric Travion Henderson this guy second round pick absolutely dominated at Ohio State he went 38th overall to this situation. We hoped for the Chicago Bears, but we did not get there.

33:05Mike Wright:Yeah, 38th overall was a disappointment to everybody.

33:07Andy Holloway:It was just based off of we thought we could get him in the top 32, but would put him in the first round. 38 overall, though, is still a really high pick for a running back. He could have come out two years ago in 2024, and he would have been the first running back selected easily. Unfortunately for us for that year, NIL has changed some things because our boy Henderson was getting that Chipotle money. I don't know if you guys know about it. If I'm in college and I'm getting paid by Chipotle, okay, maybe I'm going to stay in. But look, explosive plays of 10 or more yards, 24%. That's number one in this class.

33:47Andy Holloway:We talked about that steady drumbeat that you want to hear out of training camp. And it has been steady, and it has been getting really loud lately, especially highlighting how good he is in the receiving game. And that is a thing that can keep the rookie off the field is their work in the passing game. Maybe they're not the best pass catcher. Maybe they're not the best pass blocker. Henderson is tremendous at both of those things. And ball security, I mean, him versus Ramondre, it is night and day. Last year, Ramondre, 3.87 yards per carry, fumbled seven times the most by any non-quarterback.

34:24Andy Holloway:We're already getting reports of more fumbling issues from Ramondre coming out of camp. Look, I think that he takes over sooner than later, and it's a rookie running back who was drafted in the second round of the NFL draft. That's a good bet for fantasy football. Since 2011, we looked at the first six rounds of redraft. We got 32 rookie running backs, and not counting the guys who got injured quickly into the season. but look 60 % of them exceed their ADP expectation meaning they outplay what you're drafting them to give you and then if you look at those rookie running backs who saw two and a half or more targets per game 80 % hit rate on passing their ADP expectation and look two and a half targets for Travion Henderson that should be absolutely no problem we looked at Josh McDaniels as a play caller this guy just running back target percentage is always way up there and i know that he played with uh you know the goat tom brady who was more of a statue guy loved to check it down to his running back but even years without tom brady you know a near 30 percent target percentage going to the running back 21 20 and we're looking at only full seasons of mcdaniels as a play caller the

35:42Mike Wright:story with trevion henderson that i think is interesting and i don't know if you saw this mike but there was a couple of the reporters covering the the patriots beat in camp and they're talking about the utilization of players one thing that stood out was that travion henderson they said had significantly more downfield catches in camp than stefan diggs they said from a

36:02Andy Holloway:utilization standpoint it makes sense because he henderson actually has juice and burst like athletically we we can often over emphasize athleticism when it comes to the running back position you know like that's those are traits that you really have to have for the tight end and running backs can be not as athletic but his is just it's off the charts a 95th percentile for his explosive score because that's his vertical and broad jump that's the that's the initial get off the line and you go back to his film in ohio like he can he can go downfield and

36:36Mike Wright:make spectacular catches i think it's an easier argument for me to get on board with him as a fire pick when you focus on the receiving work and the receiving game in general because you know the the most recent depth chart reports from new england you know mike rabel he's going to be the the veteran first guy he's gonna he's got you know ramondre is going to get his work ramondre's lost some weight um i think he was down 10 pounds and then antonio gibson was even getting work ahead of trayvon henderson out of the backfield now i get that will take more time to do the to do the depth chart jump I think with Mike Vrabel and and with the the team and they there's also been some talk of the offensive line really struggling even though we know they invested at four overall and and made the the offensive line a priority it's been struggling so far in camp but you start talking about the versatility factor you start talking about look when you break down the wide receiver room like you know Demaryia Douglas probably making the most strides in camp stefan diggs older the other guys are not hyper reliable players so you look at trevon henderson as a weapon in that regard you it gets me more more excited when i see that he's getting down field targets because he's the guy in space that could do a lot with it yes he can and this is

37:55Andy Holloway:you know we the patriots when we did our divisional breakdowns their when their projected win total was pretty shocking what was were we eight and a half Kyle do you remember that one off the top of your head yeah I believe it was 8.5 8.5 the bookies are saying this is going to be a solid team maybe that's not a playoff team but that's a good amount of wins that's going to be points on the board

38:21Mike Wright:I still don't get it I don't get it I wonder I guess if New England was sitting in the NFC North I don't think they're at 8.5 no for sure

38:30Jason Moore:this is as much a schedule blessing for them as anything else

38:34Mike Wright:Yeah, I do think that the Dolphins may be bad. Sure. I think that could be a team that they pass in the division for sure.

38:45Andy Holloway:But Henderson is just – I know, yes, look, Vrabel, veteran first, that stuff will happen right now. But it's a fantasy football –

38:55Mike Wright:It's like Wenderson, is he going to take over? That's what we want to know.

38:57Andy Holloway:And he's not expensive in drafts. What? I missed it.

39:03Jason Moore:he switched his own joke, but I plowed over it.

39:08Mike Wright:Wait,

39:09Jason Moore:well, hold on.

39:09Mike Wright:I want to hear it. No, no, no, no, no, no, you can check the tape later. It's bad. Like,

39:13Andy Holloway:you know, the, the excitement for O 'Marion Hampton, he's gonna, Hampton's gonna jump into like third round. I probably even late second round of the excitement for him. Henderson's chilling right now is RB 24. He will be better than the RB 24. He will take over this job. And I think he will be, if not the one at least the one a sooner than what round is he going the sixth round sixth round yeah that isn't that is an easy selection for me all right uh jason your turn to select either an

39:45Jason Moore:ice or a fire player well i'm not gonna tell you what it is yet i'm gonna talk about sam laporta uh a young tight end on a great offense former tight end one who has been the tight end one going into year three. So obviously, great player, great team, great offense, great pick. Ice. No. No. Terrible pick. No. No. No. Sam Laporta is a good player. He is on a good offense, and he will be fine in fantasy. In fact, I am the highest ranked of the three of us on Sam Laporta. He's my tight end five. I project him to finish as the tight end five. that is a terrible pick where he's going this is about opportunity cost we talked we talked about him a lot yesterday when i found out you were doing this yeah this this is the issue here is one of fantasy football game strategy this isn't really a take on sam laporta yeah it emotionally

40:44Mike Wright:bothers me that he's an ice for you sure because of my respect for the the player and and i get it

40:49Jason Moore:so if you want to just say my ice pick is fifth round tight ends because if sam laporta were to slip to the seventh in your league dude i will take him this is about what you're giving up and what you're getting to give up something good so in the fifth round i got a little lost yeah don't worry about it you got lost you get no i was right there here's the thing right now sam laporte is going in the fifth round the players that you are not taking at running back and wide raven henderson sure you're take you're taking him ahead of traven henderson you're taking him ahead of Joe Mixon and James Conner.

41:29Jason Moore:These are important fantasy. I mean, James Conner is, you know, was a top 10 running back over Chuba Hubbard, who was very good. The DK Metcalf, Cortland Sutton, Devante Smith. These are players we know are good and will be important on fantasy rosters. Later in the ninth round, there are tight ends that are not that different than sam laporta do i have sam laporta ranked ahead of most of the ahead of evan ingram yeah ahead of david njoku i can't remember now ahead or not but there are tight ends going you know uh you you could take shots on loveland and tyler warren go look at the value scout tool that

42:08Mike Wright:i just posted in there because we we just released this it has our true value based on our rankings uh and oh how funny and and i guess this is true there is no there is no player that we have a bigger differential in what we view as their true value in the draft and where their average draft position is than Sam Laporta. We have a differential of 38 picks for Sam Laporta.

42:31Jason Moore:It feels bad because Sam Laporta is good. This isn't an anti-Sam Laporta take. This is a fantasy scoring take. Or fantasy reality situation. The difference in points between Sam Laporta and David Njoku is not that much. Okay, in fact, last year, David Njoku outscored Sam Laporta. Two years ago when Laporta was the number one tight end, his, you know, you can't do better. He was 11.5 fantasy points. Like, David Njoku last year was 10.6. The gap isn't that big. Think about what the gap is between guys going where you're taking Njoku, Travis Etienne or James Conner. One of those is a player no one wants, and one is going to be an important every year.

43:15Mike Wright:You're saying the exchange for Laporta right now would be James Conner. Exactly. But the exchange for the eighth round is an ETN, which is kind of indifferent about it.

43:24Jason Moore:Here's the players I'm giving up. I'm giving up Najee Harris or Travis ETN. I'm giving up Cooper Kopp. I'm giving up guys that – Just do the trade. Do the pretend trade. Would you rather have David Njoku – And James Conner. And James Conner or Sam Laporta and Travis ETN. Yeah, that's a no-brainer. This is where, and honestly, Hawkinson should be kind of in the same. When they drop a couple more rounds and you have the tear breaks at running back and wide receiver where you're starting to go to like, I don't know, there's a lot of red-yellow flags. I don't really love these wide receivers and running backs.

43:56Jason Moore:Scoop up the good tight ends that you know are good. I know Sam Laporte is going to be good, but I also know that good at tight end, it's not a difference maker. It's not winning you championships. And in fact, a lot of times you make more points, you score more points. You make them in the laboratory. You score more points by streaming against good tight end matchups and playing guys off of waivers than just week in, week out.

44:17Mike Wright:Than being locked into Laporta. Yeah, exactly. Every single week. No, it's a very, it's difficult to accept. I promise all the listeners will only hear that you hate him. Oh, for sure.

44:26Andy Holloway:For sure. And this stat, I think, is where it's really important. Jay, you were talking about just fifth round tight ends. 39 tight ends drafted from rounds five through seven over the last decade. And what they're expected to score, you know, ADP expectation, we're talking at 87 % whiff rate on those picks. They're usually the worst. Middle-round tight ends are just not – it's like, yeah, one every once in a while is going to sneak through and be an awesome pick. It keeps setting the trap for us. The bear trap just gets opened every single year because one of them goes through. And then our leg gets stuck, and now we have these tight ends who are not helping us.

45:08Mike Wright:Are the bear traps, just out of curiosity, they just sit there with no bait? Or is there like an apple in there or something? No, I think there's no bait. I think it's covered. It's covered with leaves? Yeah. Okay. I was just trying to think of the analogy.

45:21Jason Moore:You're not wanting to get the head. This isn't a rat trap. Like, hey, come eat this apple. Yeah, no, you don't want the bear's head.

45:27Andy Holloway:Well, I think you would, but I don't know that that's the easiest thing to do. There's four legs. Much easier to get a leg.

45:33Mike Wright:What are we doing with the bear traps? Is that a thing still? They exist.

45:37Andy Holloway:Do we go for the bears?

45:38Jason Moore:I don't think we set them.

45:39Mike Wright:Okay. Like we don't set them? I don't think. As Americans?

45:42Jason Moore:Yeah, correct. Not just the three of us. I'm very confident the three of us don't. No longer set bear traps.

45:50Mike Wright:Plenty of bear traps, though, in fantasy.

45:52Andy Holloway:Yes, in the fifth to seventh round at the tight end position.

45:55Mike Wright:All right, we are going to take a quick break and come back. We each have another player to talk about on this edition of Ice and Fire.

46:09Mike Wright:well uh we know the foot clan is wise they are sharp and if if those things are true then they probably know by process of elimination that all i have left is a fire pick which is going to

46:21Andy Holloway:surprise some people this is this is an individual show with our own individual takes interesting i

46:29Mike Wright:didn't know that that was going to be the position that you took on my fire pick jackson smith and jigba fire this has not been a place um this has not been where i've been about jason in in years past and i have really turned a corner this offseason on my expectations and excitement for a player that looking on sleeper he's a third round pick but on espn you know this is what the the platform um the value tool and our adp platform comparison tool do like on espn he's a fourth round pick he's a late third on yahoo right now late third on underdog i am the highest of our team here now where i have him inside the top 10 at the position but the transition has really happened in part because of what i believe about json's talent you know coming into the league It was very, very slow going.

47:25Mike Wright:Even last year, halfway through, it was slow going. And then you started to see a utilization for JSN that was much more significant down the field. Part of the question marks that you've brought up, Mike, is he playing the slot? Is Cooper Cupp playing the slot? Both of these guys. Look, from what I see on film, JSN is very, very capable of being an excellent outside wide receiver. And I think they're going to give him that opportunity, which means more downfield targets. we have not traditionally looked at slot wide receivers with the same fantasy upside that we look at outside wide receivers but you're talking about a 23 year old player i mean he's one of six in the history of the nfl with 100 catch season before turning 23 this is a a young talented player and i don't want to fall into the same trap that we did last year with sam darnold and an off-season narrative that this guy couldn't support an elite wide receiver option i mean And Jason just talked about Cooper Cupp.

48:23Mike Wright:He's going in the eighth, ninth round of drafts. You've got off-season talk. Maybe, you know, Torrey Horton's going to be a valuable player on this roster. We all know the story. You talk about target market share. You talk about total volume in the offense. And you talk about talent. And Jason meets all of those markers. Like, you look at players that could be eligible to move up into the upper echelon at the position. And I am on board with Jason this year. I think he's going to move around the formation a lot. We've already got – I mean, we haven't talked about it. We should have. I don't know why I've let it be buried, but Kenneth Walker's hurt again.

48:58Andy Holloway:Kenneth Walker is resting. He's resting his bones and –

49:04Mike Wright:And his tendons and his – were you going to say his meat, Jason? Were you going to say his meat? I would never.

49:10Andy Holloway:He will be so rested and recovered for week one, guys.

49:13Mike Wright:Three practices missed already. Just a little tuckered out. at least the average 3.7 a carry last year he's resting yeah he rested on the field that's the

49:23Jason Moore:problem i know that's why he's gonna be so ready he is so rested for year four he is you know he's

49:29Mike Wright:taking those first three years and rested yeah i mean this is um this is the number one target by a a wide margin he he absolutely dominated over the second half of the year last year you saw it and I don't think that we should take the ambiguity of a quarterback change and not recognize, look, no more Tyler Lockett, no more DK Metcalf, right? Like, no more Noah Fant. Yeah, maybe Arroyo is going to be relevant in this offense, but the target totals for JSN are going to be out of control. And I don't think we were very generous to the Seattle offense when we did our divisional breakdown. I stand by it.

50:06Mike Wright:Yeah, and that's fine. That's fine. But I mean, this is a player that I think could, like when we saw, when you're looking for that breakout and the career years you got out of, like when CeeDee Lamb was the number one overall wide receiver, he was JSN's age. When Jefferson did it, he was JSN's age. When Jamar Chase did it. Like this is the prime time for the elite season for JSN. and I just think maybe we're undervaluing that in terms of can he finish a top three, four player? I actually think he can. I actually think JSN could do that.

50:45Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean it would take Sam Darnold to have truly leveled up and not just been a product of the Vikings system and weapons last year. Obviously, if Sam Darnold does this year what he did last year, he could support JSN to be a top five guy. I've got JSN as a top 15 wide receiver. I like a lot of what you're saying. I think he is talented, but I do have more hesitations on the offense. I think they want to run the ball. I knew it would be tough to persuade both of you guys. Yeah, and I'm not out on him.

51:12Mike Wright:Just remember. Remember this moment.

51:14Andy Holloway:And I'm with Jason. I'm not out, but I have him at wide receiver 15 right now. He's going as wide receiver 12. So that just says to me I will have no shares of JSN because I'm not willing to go slightly early, and he's not going to make it late enough where I'm okay with taking on the risk. The variables to me are a ton of not – I mean, Sam Darnold at the tippy-tippy top. Sam Darnold with a bad offensive line with a scheme that they want to be really run heavy. And then the Cooper Cup, JSN, how is that going to work out? It's not that it can't. It's just the, that's enough to make me just go to a different player.

51:59Mike Wright:Yeah, the kind of parallel you'd want to look at for hopes and dreams for JSN is Amon Ra is a rookie, 77 % of the time in the slot, 21 % of the time out wide. That moved to 60-40, then it moved to basically 55-47, and the last year was like 50-50. For Amon Ra, inside, outside, all over the place, go to target, and everything at camp, like the amount of targets that jason is going to get this year that's what convinces me of this of this pick so and it's going to be a very interesting one i was not on board early in

52:29Andy Holloway:the offseason i've come full circle to follow up on like if a player is a full-time slot player that's when it things are difficult it's a like the slot can be very advantageous if you have a good offensive coordinator that's when you're moving guys around and getting the mismatch but So it's like when they go to two wide, you're on the outside. And then when they go to three, sometimes you're on the outside. Sometimes you're in the slot. Like that is okay. That actually gives you the magical fantasy years. Like the Julio Jones when he's popping off back in the day, it was because he was moving all over the field and all over the formation.

53:05Andy Holloway:So if they're doing that with JSN, that would really, really help the baseline.

53:10Mike Wright:Yep. All right. I'll leave it there. I do think he is, you know, you try to identify players that could finish, you know, inside the top five. I do think he's one of those guys.

53:20Andy Holloway:All right. I'm going to jump in with my ice pick. And he, it's not that this player necessarily has a really high ADP, but they are being drafted right now on sleeper in the seventh round. And the way that I am looking at it, that is just taking your pick and well, setting on a fire, but I have to freeze it on ice. Okay. Okay. Ice. It's Tyrone Tracy Jr. Running back, current starting running back of the New York Giants. Last year was, it was great. It was great for Tracy. I mean, he was a fifth rounder in 17 games. He finished as the running back 25. I mean, he became the focal point of the offense with 192 carries, 55 targets.

54:07Andy Holloway:Thank you. I don't have the button. You know, like week five, running back from week five on, he was a running back 15. And here is the downside, though. The Giants, they will, if they would shock me, like teams can go from bad to good. I don't think that the Giants are going to be making that type of a jump this year. This team is going to be on red alert the entirety of the season, from a quarterback change to a coaches being fired. I mean Dable has to be on the hottest of hot seats tough division right now in a really hard division and last year we're talking like volume got him there but efficiency 39th out of 44 qualified running backs and rush success rate only 30 percent of his runs went for five or more yards that's 41st out of 47 the offensive line is projected to be even worse and it's the comp to me then the worst part is the competition there's so many variables just for this team but then cam scadaboo who he did fall into the fourth round but i think that cam scadaboo is just a much better player than tyrone tracy especially in the receiving game yes scadaboo is is hurt at the moment but and the there is there has been some positive buzz out here about tyrone tracy from the same source last year who was giving you really positive vibes right before the season starts that Devin Singletary is locked in and he's going to be the guy which to the credit of that report.

55:40Andy Holloway:He did start that way. Singletary did start is that and then he got hurt

55:43Mike Wright:and then they were like yeah yeah good enough we'll move on to Tyrone Tracy. I've struggled to find people excited about Tyrone Tracy this offseason. But he but he gets drafted. But I don't I don't know why that is because he was very exciting in the middle of last year. He was. He was. I remember I. Is it all Cam Scadaboo? Is it all.

55:59Andy Holloway:To me Cam Scadaboo is a huge part of it But then it's just what could happen to this team.

56:05Mike Wright:What if I told you Scadaboo wasn't playing? Would you have been excited about Tyrone Tarzan?

56:09Andy Holloway:I would be, yes. I wouldn't be excited, but I would be fine taking him here as a later round running back. But I think that him holding on to that amount of volume, almost 200 carries and those 55 targets, that's not going to happen with Scadaboo.

56:25Mike Wright:He has gone below ADP in all five footballers' mocks this offseason. Good for us. At least here in the building, the excitement to draft him is not permeated into any sort of higher ADP.

56:39Andy Holloway:But what I'm doing with this saying is I'm not just unexcited to draft him. I think it is a completely wasted pick. Just useless. And even the worst kind of those first few weeks will probably be Tyrone Tracy running the backfield. And your confidence will grow in this player. And then it will vanish. and you will get maybe a couple weeks out of him. And those weeks, by the way.

57:06Jason Moore:Do you worry at all about the report coming out saying that Tyrone Tracy is – he's like the guy's not a big competition? That's what I was saying.

57:12Andy Holloway:That was the source who told us that Devin Singletary was for sure locked into 80 % of the snaps last year.

57:18Mike Wright:They have the hardest strength to schedule in the entire NFL.

57:20Andy Holloway:And that is the other point. Let's say it starts. Tracy's the guy at the beginning of the year. Washington, Dallas, Kansas City, the Chargers. if they can make it to week five then he gets a plus matchup against the saints philly denver philly 49ers like this this is if you're they got done dirty if you're bad if you're bad you're

57:41Mike Wright:running back fancy points are bad that's the equation that has gone i mean you go back to 2018 the worst team in the league not saying they will be i think their defense is good enough for them not to be the worst team but if you're a bad team you're running back fancy points are 25th or lower and most of the time it's 29 30 31 32 you don't produce on the ground ironically the the

58:01Jason Moore:one place that you are okay being a running back on a bad team is if you're the pass catching back which tyrone tracy did catch passes last year but that is also a specialty of cam scadaboo so when he comes back and and that even in the report saying that that was um you know that it's tyrone tracy's job right now they were like they saw cam scadaboo as the pass catching back which if you're down. That's probably who you want.

58:23Mike Wright:Alright, Jason. I bet you have a fire player.

58:26Jason Moore:I'm not gonna reveal that yet. I will say this. We come in and we pick our guys. We don't always know who else we're gonna be talking about. It is surprising that we have two fire picks from the New England Patriots, but here we are. I'm gonna talk about... What are we doing? You guys are crazy, man. What could go wrong? I'm gonna talk about quarterback Drake May. Fire. Drake May, very undervalued in drafts right now. He's never been as sexy as Caleb Williams. He was the third overall pick in the 2024 draft. That is usually incredible draft capital, yet he was the third quarterback draft. It worked incredible for my guy, Trey Lance.

59:10Jason Moore:Right, yeah. Drake May didn't start until week six last year. They wanted to bring him along slowly, especially because of how bad that offensive line was. they put Jacoby Brissett out there to just become beef brisket behind that offensive line. But when he took over from weeks six through 16, he was playing pretty well. He scored more than Kyler Murray and more than Jordan Love, despite the fact that he was throwing to absolutely no one. He was throwing to booty a lot. As a passer, he actually completed 67 % of his passes. That's a very good number for a rookie, especially in his situation. Here's, I think, a really neat stat to show what I saw on film that had me excited and believing.

59:53Jason Moore:I think he's good. Among 31 qualifying rookie quarterbacks over the last decade, Jaden Daniels ranked second in drop back success rate. Drake May was fourth. Drake May played good ball. And the best part is he runs the football. He runs a lot. He was on pace for 632 rushing yards. He's one of only eight quarterbacks since the year 2000 to rush for 30 plus yards a game as a rookie. The others are, you know, Robert Griffin, Josh Allen, Jaden Daniels, Cam Newton, Justin Fields. Like there are... It's a good fantasy list to be on. These are great. Drake May had 45 total scrambles last year. That was one less than Lamar Jackson, and he didn't start until week six.

1:00:37Jason Moore:So we've got the running game there. We've got the passing game looking good. They spent a top pick on an offensive lineman. They don't have a great offensive line, but I think their left tackle is fixed. And if you look over the last decade, we've had 50 quarterbacks to start at least 12 games and hit 75 plus rush attempts, which we all independently have him statted for more than that. Those quarterbacks averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game 82 percent of them finish as a top 12 quarterback and now you've got an improved weapon core i mean we've got travion henderson out of the backfield great at catching the ball

1:01:12Mike Wright:josh mcdaniels throws to the running back so if you can get some cheap yards for drake may out of

1:01:17Jason Moore:the backfield going to travion that'd be nice yeah you added stefan diggs um obviously older but still really valuable he's going to be in the right place at the right time he's going to catch

1:01:25Mike Wright:the ball if you put it near his hands you added demario douglas would have been my undrafted gym but you told me I can't name another Patriot on the show.

1:01:32Jason Moore:Yes, that's true. Kyle Williams, they spent the third-round pick on a much-needed kind of outside speed wide receiver. Demario Douglas, who you like, now he gets to not have to be the main guy when he's just a good slot receiver. So I think they've actually got a core here that can move the ball, that can get down and score touchdowns. Like we brought it up, they're actually projected to win games this year, eight and a half, and I just look at the ADP of these quarterbacks, who you could take late that is a rushing mobile quarterback that might level up. There's a lot of ways it could happen for Drake May.

1:02:10Jason Moore:He's a good quarterback. He runs the ball. He's got an improved situation, and he's going into year two, and he costs you nothing. So he can even be a second quarterback you draft. Yeah, we've got him.

1:02:20Mike Wright:I think our true value on him is in the 10th round, and he's going in the middle to late 11th round. So if you want to take him around early to get your shot at it, it's definitely affordable. so um all right that does it for ice and fire we got wide receiver ranking shows coming up we've got another mock draft episode we've got our top 10 tips and tricks episode coming up we've got the my guys for 2025 mercy uh which uh is always an exciting and fun show to do um got to lock in those those three my guys gentlemen and uh the time is coming soon so all right that is it for today but guess what we're back tomorrow make sure you subscribe follow the show on whatever podcast app you are using or over on youtube if you've got a free minute and you want to help us out that'd be sweet al borland would love that if you left a review al you love reviews you're super into reviews right that's all i do all day is i just browse the reviews he looks for his name in there get to work man he wants to see al's name in the review so if you want to do that go ahead and take a few moments.

1:03:23Mike Wright:That'd be awesome. And the ultimate draft kit available at ultimate draft kit.com. That'll do it. Ice and fire in the books. More to come. Take care. Goodbye.

1:03:41Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.