Fantasy Football - Ice & Fire Show + We're Baaaaaaack! - Podcast for 8/3

12:26Andy Holloway:Oh, very much.

12:26Jason Moore:They're a top – they are already, I believe, today a top five tandem in the NFL. Oh, come on. No, for real. Top five's crazy. No, I don't think it goes – so you got Jamar and Tee Higgins.

12:36Andy Holloway:Yeah, so Cowboys and Bengals are top two. Cowboys, Lamb and Pickens.

12:39Jason Moore:Lamb and Pickens, they're done. I think Puka and Devontae Adams, they're above them. I think Amon Ra and Jamison Williams, they're above them. That's where, okay, now you go, the fifth is where they could go. Jefferson and Addison, okay, sure.

12:53Mike Wright:Maybe you put them ahead. You can't give Tyson that level of respect without a snap on the field.

13:00Jason Moore:Sure can. I mean, you can, and I think it's dessert. I think he is an absolute maniacal stud. I don't even know if he's better than Olave. It's August.

13:12Andy Holloway:You've got to bring out the new stuff. Jordan Tyson is there.

13:14Jason Moore:I mean, then you're going, I mean,

13:17Andy Holloway:Waddle Sutton? Look, Andy can have him outside the top five while we are here, and then he's going to have to scramble to catch up, but it'll be too late.

13:25Jason Moore:Yeah, I think that they are there. They are at that tier in that fifth tier, personally.

13:33Mike Wright:Okay. That's why we have the show. So Tucker Craft, activated from the PUP list. Realistical take part in joint practices.

13:43Jason Moore:He's running very well when it's straight.

13:46Mike Wright:It's awesome that Tucker Craft is in the practice consideration right now after the injury. Chris Brazell, season-ending IR. Yeah. That's a bummer. Kyle Monungay returned to practice after missing three practices. It was a soft tissue issue. Xavier Worthy avoided a serious shoulder injury. He had been carted off. and rookie wide receiver who was making waves cyrus allen he was carted off but it's a shin

14:08Jason Moore:bruce and he had been making plays what a wild twitter roller coaster that was if you were on the uh football twitters cyrus allen was almost offensive player of the year in 2026 he was pretty much the most important player in all of football projected for a day or two then it was carted off his career is over and it was a shambler so tbd man the uh the chiefs

14:36Andy Holloway:all every year the chiefs always have a guy where you're like holy crap this well because really late drafted player is about to come into the nfl and set it on fire i mean i'll say this that like

14:48Mike Wright:rashi rice running downfield looked awful his knee is not ready i and i know you said maybe he's warming up that's not a warm-up run that was a full-on run that's what are you sure yeah i'm positive it was it was a full i agree it was a full run it was what he's at right now i will say

15:03Jason Moore:this we are still months away from the season and you would expect him coming off of this injury to not be at 100 right now but he was clearly not at 100 and the reason that the chiefs have somebody

15:14Mike Wright:every offseason is because it's been a long time since tyreek hill existed and we are trying to find somebody to believe in each and every offseason whether it's jalen royals for an offseason sky more i mean we we know we know that mahomes could supply somebody with a lot of fantasy value and i still think of it being cyrus allen they're not high no and it's cyrus allen is just

15:37Jason Moore:a great name to know for dynasty leagues i assume by this point in time he's been picked up in all dynasty leagues but there's some out there that maybe he's sitting on the waivers and you should scoop him up immediately.

15:46Mike Wright:And to the Rashi Rice point, it's just that he is recovering from an actual injury. Absolutely. There was a ton of offseason, you know, off the field issues and jail time and things of that nature. But you also want to know that this player is back at full strength and going to be a focal point of the offense. He's a really tough player because I don't think Rashi Rice, and we've said this before, I think you guys agree, in a different offense, in a different environment, he's not the fantasy player that he is in Kansas City. They use him around the goal line on touch passes and end-arounds and screens and short area targets, and he scores a lot of touchdowns, and he's a go-to guy in this offense.

16:23Mike Wright:There are question marks around his effectiveness because of injury, because of Kelsey's effectiveness, who I think draws interior coverage. If he's not as good, does Rice get as much work or have as much success? Probably because of Patrick Mahomes. But this is a limited player. This is not a player that's running 25-yard digs. Maybe that's in his repertoire, but we haven't seen it. He's been a closer-to-the-line-of-scrimmage catch-and-run guy.

16:51Andy Holloway:And the running part is the part I'm worried about. The funniest thing I saw said about that was, well, he doesn't get passes that far down the field anyways. So what are you worried about? With the run? Yeah, no. That's not his 8-0 over there. No, it isn't.

17:06Mike Wright:Unless we have any other news, unless the 49ers in the substation have attacked again.

17:11Andy Holloway:I'll let you know. We'll break in.

17:13Mike Wright:We're going to go ahead and take a break and get into ice and fire.

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18:23Mike Wright:Are we ready for this? Do-do-do-do-do-do-do-do-do.

18:34Jason Moore:Ice and Fire.

18:44Mike Wright:Well, this is always a very fun segment. It's one of my favorites. We've done this for live shows before. But we each have picked an Ice and Fire player to talk about for the upcoming season. I'm going to come clean right at the top of this segment. Okay. Today's going to be a hard day for me. Okay. Because I know the names that are coming up. You don't necessarily love them. I'm not in agreement with a couple of them, and it's going to be really tough for me.

19:15Jason Moore:Well, that's great. I mean, we shouldn't always be in agreement, but it gives us a chance to sway you.

19:21Mike Wright:You're who we're talking to. Let me put it this way. I am all ears. I would like to know where my brain is diverging from your brain, and I'm excited to hear it. We're going to start off with – I mean, it's a perfect segue. We just talked about this team. I want to talk about Travis Kelsey. Travis Kelsey is –

19:43Andy Holloway:You want to talk about screenshots? If you're talking about the Rasheed Rice route. You're talking about dad bod? The Travis Kelsey photo, it's not flattering. I don't know. See, that's the problem. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know anymore. Now I feel like. And angles of everything and where the shirt may or jersey may have just bloused out. Yeah, him and Debo got. I hope they got AI'd. Debo's always. Yeah, Debo's been a thick boy forever.

20:11Mike Wright:I mean, we had thick boy Debo in Washington and he still had. Never forget fat Keenan Allen season. Oh, yeah, he dominated. Well, let's just say this. it's a really tough thing in the AI world because you know what people are doing? It's funny if you're like, hey, let's make Victor Wiminyama 30 feet tall. I can tell that's AI. But now they're doing this thing where it's like, make the legs a little bit longer. Just a little bit. So it looks just a little bit weird.

20:37Jason Moore:Give them eight pounds.

20:40Mike Wright:Yeah, what are we doing? That should be what's banned in AI. I don't care about all the rest. Just don't let people do subtle changes to appearance.

20:46Andy Holloway:Just learn how to do a joke. Right.

20:50Mike Wright:yeah we did do that with one of our employees we changed his hairline just a little bit

20:56Jason Moore:we gotta tell this story this is great

20:59Andy Holloway:that's the joke for that one we know how to tell jokes

21:04Mike Wright:we play a bunch of games in the office people are champions of that game and take unreasonable amounts of pride in winning these stupid little games he had one he printed a poster of himself we're talking 24 by 36 framed poster above his desk.

21:20Andy Holloway:Nah, leave it at me.

21:21Mike Wright:And then he went on vacation. And he's a young man. He's the youngest man in this office. Very handsome man. Handsome, strong, virile. You know, whatever a young person is. Doesn't have the best hairline. The hairline, though, is going. That's his issue. We all have our issues. That's his. It's his Achilles heel. And quite a heel. Yeah. It was worse than mine. We took the photo down. We scanned the photo. We moved his hairline back. We reprinted the photo, and we hung it up above his desk.

21:54Jason Moore:To see how long until he would notice that his hairline is worse, right above his head.

22:00Mike Wright:The problem, one of the problems was his name is Jake Pitner, and we changed his name to Jork Diddler. Yeah. And that really let him know that the poster was wrong, and that's where we went off. But Mike is just so ashamed that I shared that part. but the hairline we subtly moved it and and uh he noticed so listen travis kelsey and the and the ai dad bod or not i mean look you're gonna get one when you're entering the near 40 age range he's 36.8 years old we're gonna talk about travis kelsey but he is my ice Chili Okay Don't ruin my thing That sounds like you like ice Travis Kelsey I know Mike you've talked more positively About him as kind of like Maybe he's a great floor tight end Yes I'm very concerned On a number of levels It's not surprising I am the lowest of the three of us By a lot Mike's got him at 9 Jason at 11 I got him at 17 you know i i feel like part of the argument is the obvious stuff everything's going down in terms of the production the snap percentage the target share the targets per out run the receptions the red zone targets i mean it is gone down significantly i think the red zone targets is one to bring up specifically we're like 26 down to 11 that's a big difference so then you're like Is he just less valuable?

23:28Mike Wright:Do they use him less? Is he losing a step? Well, the Chiefs were like, when they targeted the tight end position, Travis Kelsey, 20th in yards per attempt, 22nd in pass success rate, 32nd in percentage of inaccurate targets. He's not where he used to be. That's the point. If you are 32nd in inaccurate target numbers. The man's about to be 37. Which I will forgive.

23:52Andy Holloway:Holy crap. How is he that old?

23:54Mike Wright:I will forgive it if he's not playing football. You can be 37. Yeah. You just can't do it on a field and have success. And 41 % of his routes at this point now are the old guy routes, the short stuff. You don't get the big plays that you used to get from Kelsey. His fantasy points per game are in decline, 15, 11, nine, 9.1. I agree that there's a world where Travis Kelsey is fine as a floor play tight end, but do you want, I mean, Jason, you've talked so much about the tight end position. Yeah. If you're not going for a big top five, I think it's a top five, you know, Bowers, McBride, Loveland, Warren, Fannin.

24:33Mike Wright:Oh, you put Fannin in? Okay. I put Fannin in. That's fine. You don't have to. Four and a half, whatever.

24:38Andy Holloway:You don't want to put last year's top five tight end Travis Kelsey in there?

24:41Mike Wright:Well, I mean, it is a product of availability, not performance. It is. He has been out there. I just think it might be worth taking a shot at a high upside athletic tight end like Isaiah Likely in New York. Britton Strange and the offense that we're going to love in Jacksonville. I mean, they could be a Super Bowl contender. I just find it to be like there's a world where you draft Kelsey high enough to where you lock him in as your tight end, and he performs bad enough for you to be really not able to make the moves you need to make.

25:11Jason Moore:That's where I think I disagree is where he's being drafted is not high. I mean, he's double-digit rounds. We've done mocks where he's undrafted. If he's not one of the top 12 that you're – When I draft, I'm either getting one of those top guys or I'm waiting until the very last pick. And there's been times where at that last pick, I'm basically waiting to see if I want Kelsey or Kincaid. And I do. I will say this. I usually go the other way. I'm trying to swing for the fences to have someone that is a higher upside. However, you know Kelsey will be involved in the offense. will get, you know, if you're in a, especially a full PPR league, you should have a safe floor and it costs you nothing.

25:54Jason Moore:The question is, could he score more around the goal line?

25:58Mike Wright:I was going to ask Mike, do you, you know, outside of the availability argument in the nine, you know, eight or nine points a game, is there a world in your mind that Travis Kelsey, a year older, is making a jump up? That's kind of the decision. Is it not a, I mean, like above those top five. Got names I gave you. No, no, no, no. Or Tucker Kraft.

26:20Andy Holloway:No. Or Kyle Pitts. Kyle Pitts, maybe. Okay. You know, for all the – what we're talking about here, last year Kyle Pitts, even with the greatest game that a fantasy tight end has ever given us, 9.8 points per game. And Travis Kelsey was just over nine. Like this is not a wide margin between the two. Where Kyle Pitts could absolutely be – like he still has a ceiling that we don't know if it's there or if it's not. It won't be there for Kelsey. The upside play for him is he's so late in the draft, and the addition of Kenneth Walker makes this offense better. And you actually, when you get inside the five, we used to get all those, like, the fun, the bowling ball throw to Travis Kelsey because the defense actually had to worry about, is the running back going to get the ball?

27:13Mike Wright:Yeah, Ken Walker makes it much better.

27:15Andy Holloway:So that's where I'm not going to push back a ton and say, like, I love Travis Kelsey or anything like that.

27:21Mike Wright:I'm really curious about what third downs look like for the Chiefs this year. Because to me, the third down magic last year was Mahomes' legs. He would get out of situations and pick up a third down. If it's third and 6-7 and he's running down the field, spray him with water.

27:38Andy Holloway:I barely did.

27:39Mike Wright:Spray him with water.

27:41Andy Holloway:I'll get you next time.

27:42Mike Wright:You know, is Kelsey going to be able to be open for those third down conversions? You know, how do they do that without Mahomes' legs? So there you go. My ice, not a surprising one, but also one I think, to me, I'm aiming elsewhere. I'm going elsewhere. I'm going to not appropriate too much to the name and expect too much from him. Travis Kelsey is the best.

27:58Andy Holloway:I like the, if you're talking about, you know, the younger guys of Isaiah Likely, Okonkwo, guys that they probably will not pan out. but they're at least at an age for football players that something good could happen that we're not really seeing yet. All right, who's up next?

28:23Mike Wright:The suspense is building, Jason.

28:25Jason Moore:All right, I'll go next. I'm going to go from a player who is in the double-digit rounds to a player who is very, very, very high in drafts, a player that we all love, and by we, I don't just mean the three of us. I mean the world. The player I loved coming out. I'm also, however, getting cold. Oh, ice. It's Devon A. Chan is my ice pick for 2026. And this is closer and closer to a green. Look, it's sad.

28:58Mike Wright:I feel like you both are there, and I am unhappy.

29:00Jason Moore:So let me talk to you. You think we're happy about these things? You currently have him as your running back, four. I get it. He was awesome last year. He was so consistent. He had more than 11 fantasy points in every single game. There's only four running backs that have ever done that. Priest Holmes back in 2003, DeMarco Murray, Christian McCaffrey once, and last year's Devon Achan. And obviously the Dolphins were bad last year. So the argument is like, well, if the argument is that he's on a bad team, he's still on a bad team. However, he's on a much worse team.

29:34Mike Wright:I mean, that's –

29:35Jason Moore:So here is my argument. When I say he's on a much worse team, I'm saying how many total points are the Miami Dolphins going to score? Because without Waddle and without Tua and with no wide receiver weapons. Without Mike McDaniel. Exactly. Without Mike McDaniel, they are most likely going to score fewer points than last year. Now, if we look at the Vegas lines, they are projected for the 29th most total NFL points. That is really, really bad. If you look at the wins, they are projected for a grand total of five and a half wins. No, no, no. Is it four and a half, Kyle? What is the projection? Can I get a two?

30:21Mike Wright:Four and a half.

30:22Jason Moore:Four and a half wins. And so, obviously, we talk about we want players at the running back position from good teams that win games. That doesn't mean they can't come from a bad team and be good, but where is he being drafted? Is he being drafted at a value or is he not? And right now he's being drafted at like the one-two turn. He is being drafted as a clear-cut RB1, very high, is costing you a lot in fantasy, and very similar to how I had Ashton Gentry as my bust pick last year. I look at the situation, I go, it's not going to return. You're going to make a mistake if you're taking him that high.

31:00Jason Moore:It's going to work out poor for you. You have, first of all, over the last two years, He played with the quarterback that targeted the running back position more than any quarterback in the NFL. That is his superpower. A target is worth so much more than a carry for fantasy football. And those targets will certainly go down. Not only does he lose Tua, but he goes all the way to a quarterback that we don't know his tendencies because we haven't seen him much. But Malik Willis has wheels and might scramble instead of checking it down here or there. That makes sense. That sucks. But, you know, can it work for a team that wins four and a half games to have a running back really give you value at that one to turn in fantasy football?

31:47Jason Moore:How rare his ADP is, is crazy. Listen to this. Since 2014, there's only three running backs who were drafted in the top three rounds with a win total of five and a half or fewer. Isaiah Crowell back in 2017. David Johnson in 2019, and this year, Devon Achan being drafted, not just in the top three, but a borderline first-round pick. What's his ADP? He's like 202 last I saw this morning.

32:13Mike Wright:What running back is that? I know I'm above 80. I think it was running back 18. Six or seven? Okay, eight.

32:20Jason Moore:Here's a study, and I think you won't like hearing this, but Brandon Gadula. That's the opposite. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm saying you need to hear this. Okay. I'm saying open your ears. Here's this thing that you'll like. Here's this thing that. You're not going to like it. It's like having your vegetables. You don't like it, but you really need it. And you need to hear this. Among running backs drafted in the first three rounds since 2014, only 27 were on teams projected for fewer than seven wins. And remember, A-chan's at four and a half. 30 % of that group outperformed their ADP in terms of fantasy points per game.

33:02Jason Moore:There's just – he has to be outrageously perfect, have crazy high touchdown.

33:08Andy Holloway:The 44 % of those fell shy of their expectation by at least two points per game. Yes. Two PPR points.

33:15Mike Wright:There's a weird thing going on this year. I'm trying to be very open-minded to this argument. I hate it because I think Devon A. Chan is in the Gibbs category of talent.

33:23Andy Holloway:He's a great player.

33:24Mike Wright:And so we look at this, and I'm looking at the ADP and the top. Like, all right, Bajon is 7.5 wins for Atlanta. That's sub 500. It's not that same level. But then, like, you know, the Raiders. The Raiders are going to be at 5.5, 6.5, depending on the book you're looking at. Dolphins are at the bottom of that list. But it's interesting because all three of those names are in your top seven, top eight. Yeah. And so push is going to come to shove. I know you love Ashton Jenty. Yes. and so it's hard for me to swallow Devon H. and going from the singular most consistent running back. So his ability, his special talent last year to me was overcoming how horrendous the Dolphins were.

34:07Mike Wright:That was his gift. His gift was just somehow they're down by a million points. He still ends up with big performances. I hate doubting the talent of Devon H. and that's what it feels like you're doing. Yeah, but it's not what I'm doing. Your numbers make sense, but you're playing the odds, not the player.

34:24Jason Moore:I am playing the odds, not the player. I think that odds are that Devon HN is a very bad bet. If you want to pick him at where he's going currently, and hopefully after this show, maybe he gets down into that middle of the third round and it's like, oof, that's a value. Scoop him up. It just feels like he's going to have to be incredibly— I know you agree, Mike, and I hear what you're saying.

34:46Mike Wright:It makes sense.

34:47Andy Holloway:You have Mike McDaniel being gone. That's the biggest red flag for me. And then Malik Willis, we know, look, guys that scramble, you get fewer checkdowns. It does happen.

35:03Mike Wright:Just to play slightly devil's advocate argument, just to get your response to this, we also know that the absence of weapons lends itself towards a heavier involvement. This is a guy that got paid huge amounts of money this offseason. The offense is Devon H. He came out yesterday in training camp. He's focused on winning the rushing record for the season. I mean, that's the goal for him is to be the rushing leader. So for me, that's one where I drew the line on talent over situation.

35:34Andy Holloway:And that's the bet.

35:35Mike Wright:Which I feel like we've done with Bijan for a number of years.

35:37Andy Holloway:When you take him at ADP, that is 100 % the bet. It's like, what does it look like? what does this offense look like when HN is everything? And I know he was like, he's a focal point of the offense.

35:51Mike Wright:I admit that you have an argument there.

35:52Andy Holloway:But it's like you still had Waddle last year, who is an elite player. And then ADP-wise, it's like, okay, right here, what I'm seeing right now, you know, Barkley, he's right around where HN is going. And then right after HN is Hampton, Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry, all running backs that you will not be able to draft.

36:12Mike Wright:Yeah, I mean, I could see an argument for Walker over him, Hampton over him, Chase Brown over him. I don't see Saquon or Henry over him.

36:23Jason Moore:You don't? Okay.

36:24Mike Wright:Yeah.

36:24Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, he will get the ball a lot. My issue is I think it'll be more on the ground. Here's what we know. We know that every second and long, they will mistakenly hand the ball to H-M because Bobby Sloak is there.

36:40Mike Wright:third and long is going to absolutely rip I feel like part of this argument is you are you're building an idiocy by the Dolphins because only an idiot would not give the ball to this man

36:54Jason Moore:no I think they will give it to the man but more in carries than in targets and a target is worth so much more in fantasy football

37:01Mike Wright:what is the average 6.1 a carry something like that man

37:03Jason Moore:he's a great player what is the average per target and half point on top of that. I'm saying fantasy points.

37:10Mike Wright:Who are they going to throw it to if it's not him? I don't know. That's where it's hard. No, I told you it's going to be hard for me to swallow. I wanted to have the conversation, and the numbers are compelling. The numbers of your odds are not great. I'm not sure the ADP is too expensive or not. That's the hard part. But you bring up some names where, like, I'm getting really toasty about Ken Walker. It seems like he's going to be the Chiefs offense. We have all these discussions around Rice and Cyrus Allen and Kelsey. It just feels like the Chiefs are going to be Ken Walker in the defense.

37:40Andy Holloway:So that's a tough one. And then he's in this category of, I don't know if I want him at his ADP. But if he's on my opponent's team, I'm going to be like, ooh. All right, what you got, Mike? All right, well, speaking of Jalen Waddell, we'll just get right to it. Fire. Absolute fire. new Denver Broncos superstar Jalen Waddell. Yes, I have a Jalen Waddell problem, but I think we finally have a solution, guys. We got him over to Bo Nix and Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos. He's going right now about the back of the fourth, wide receiver 23, so a fringe wide receiver two. And just remember what happened.

38:24Andy Holloway:So Jalen Waddell, he's still in prime age. You know, he will be turning 28. We're okay with that. these are still some prime years for the wide receiver position the Broncos traded a first a future third and fourth to go get Jalen Waddell they looked at what they had last year in terms of of pass catchers and weapons and Sean Payton and crew decided this is not enough you know I Bo Nix what is it Bo Nix threw the ball more than anyone in the NFL last year and it doesn't feel like it because you didn't get the production because you didn't have a true elite player the the the superlatives coming from sean payton about jalen waddle are already just top tier saying he walks on water with his traits talk about the great speed okay sean hey perhaps a little blasphemous but it's going to be good for your fantasy football team great speed and and and stop so like that that start stop stuff it's really important and that's how waddle can win last year you know in totality it didn't fully work for for jaylen waddle and crew but on a per route basis look man still elite you know we're talking a player who is a 2.42 yards per route run a 26 percent targets per route run this is a guy that gets the ball he because he demands the ball because he gets open.

39:51Andy Holloway:Per Ryan Heath, over the last four years, Waddle was targeted on 29 % of his routes and averaged 2.85 yards per route run when Tyreek Hill was not on the field. So this is a player that he can be a true number one. The beginning of Jalen Waddle's career was he was banished to Siberia, a.k.a. the Miami Dolphins, only to give us a wide receiver 16 season as a rookie and then a wide receiver 7, and we thought, man, the wheels are absolutely up. But then they bring in Tyree Kill. And it's understandable that Tyree Kill is going to come in and take over and be the true wide receiver one on the team.

40:31Andy Holloway:But now he gets to be the wide receiver one for the Denver Broncos. Davis Webb, the new play caller for the Broncos. We will get low A-dots. We will get screens to Jalen Waddell, and I think he will absolutely succeed. Knicks led the NFL in screen attempts over the last two years. If you're going to do them a bunch, you might as well go get yourself a player who can be elite and give you production with those things. I'm very in on Jalen Waddell being barely priced as a wide receiver too. I think that he can – I mean, we always want sure, known target volume. You know, when we're taking these players, Jay, we're always like, man, I just want someone who's going to, I need 150 targets.

41:17Andy Holloway:And it's like Jalen Waddle can 100 % do that for you. So, you know, I don't have extreme numbers for him, but I think he can get over 1 ,100 yards around six touchdowns. And I think there's even a ceiling that I do not have projected into my numbers. And my numbers still put him way ahead of the market. There's two things that get me a little hot and bothered for Waddle.

41:43Jason Moore:Because when the trade happened, I was pretty much out on Waddle. I'm like, okay, he's coming to a team with Cortland Sutton that spreads the ball around. They have a great defense. They don't need to get in shootouts. So I was pretty out on Waddle, just like, hey, it's good for the Broncos. The more time has gone on, two things have happened. One, and I've mentioned this before, I went back and I watched the tape on Bo Nix again, especially all of his deep shots, and it just was a screaming need. He didn't have a weapon to utilize how he wants to play ball. And then you combine that with the fact that, well, they saw that.

42:20Jason Moore:They went out and got him. But recently, you talk about what Sean Payton has said and, you know, cute little sound bites like he walks on water. But I saw an interview yesterday with Sean Payton where he was genuinely talking to these people about, you have no idea how much we're going to use Jalen Waddle. He was like, you can use him long. You can use him short. I can move him in the slot. I can move him out wide. And he talked about fantasy football. Specifically, he said it's easier to project a running back or a tight end because you can manufacture those touches. It's hard with a wide receiver because you don't know where the ball's going.

42:54Jason Moore:And then he's like, but not with Waddle. We are going to be getting Waddle the ball a ton. And so that's made me update my belief in the target share. I still don't think this is an offense that's going to be in the top 10 in total points. Not that they couldn't be, but because of their defense. I don't think they will actually end up there. However, I do think that the slice of pie Waddle gets from this offense is far larger than I thought earlier this offseason.

43:26Mike Wright:Yeah, I mean, Peyton always gives me a little bit. I mean, I like the pick. I like Waddle. He's moved up in my rankings. I like the idea that this is a superstar that we finally have where all the other receivers sort of blend together, don't they? They kind of blend into this. You just have wide receivers. That's what you have with Mims and Pat Bryant and Sutton and Franklin. Yeah, thank you. I know.

43:49Andy Holloway:That's the – Jason likes Franklin. I like Pat Bryant. But it's like they have been searching. They've been searching and not finding.

43:59Mike Wright:because like waddle waddle's best season was in 2022 yes um and we are we're a few years away from that like i won't i don't will you be happy with 10.1 fancy points per game in denver probably not for jaylen no i don't think so um and i was trying to look up where that would put him as a wide receiver that's where he was last year obviously it seems like he's more hurt than his numbers say yeah oh yeah that part is true um it looks like he plays about 15 16 games but He only plays like half of them. But, no, I like the pick. I think he needs to come up in my rankings. I like all the comments from Payton about high expectations.

44:39Mike Wright:He said, I don't follow fancy football, but shoot, I'd try to have him. I think he's going to do well. But I also think that Sean Payton is kind of a very – he's one of the least predictable head coaches because he's willing to throw the ball to anybody anytime, hand the ball to anybody anytime. That would be the back of my head fear.

44:55Jason Moore:remember back in the day though when michael thomas was part of the sean payton system and they had that guy who could win on both areas of the field and that's what the hope is get him the

45:06Mike Wright:ball every play all right we'll take a break we'll come back with three more picks

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45:41Mike Wright:CBS Sunday, September 13th, the new season of 60 Minutes begins. Okay, let's go. Every second, a story unfolds. This is one of the great mysteries of human nature. Every minute, a new question. You were buying access to the president. Every week, a deeper understanding. When we take the field, the expectations are to win. It's time. We're preparing to go out on this race for the new season. It was gunfighting. All the way in, all the way out. 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday, September 13th, and streaming on Paramount+. All right. Ice and Fire continues. I'm not going to leave you in suspense here. My fire pick is Emeka Abuka.

46:21Mike Wright:Fire. Yes! Mika. Big, big boo. Let me get you there. Mika, big boo. I'd be so sick if it was on the back of his jersey. We have spent a lot of time this offseason talking about Ibuka, about the end of the season and the bad scars and taste in your mouth because he was so terrible at the end of the year. If you want to know part of that equation, it was the fact that 27 % of his targets were inaccurate at the end of the year. that's the worst of any player in the national football league so do we hold abuka to be the only one to blame for that i think if your targets are inaccurate they're harder to catch that's that's my analysis of the situation i'm no i'm i'm not a professional right but that sounds pretty good did you ever catch any of my targets in flag football when they weren't near you no no see

47:13Jason Moore:that's that's where my market research i did uh the uncatchable targets are very difficult to catch

47:19Mike Wright:right nearly almost because of the un yeah so he had 127 targets last year only 81 of those targets were catchable so he was heavily targeted we had such the you know so much excitement over the first half of the year this is the second most fantasy points scored ever to start a career by a wide receiver so everybody got on board everybody's excited for the hall of fame career commencing and then we got a really really bad end of the season reasons being he hurt his hamstring in week six that lingered mike evans got knocked out he got moved to the x position um which was tougher for him to execute on i think that's what went into some of the uncatchable targets and then we know that baker mayfield was absolutely damaged uh you know injury was the right word for baker mayfield a couple of them this offseason you're going to see a mecca abuka with the absence of mike evans blossom into the do everything wide receiver that this team needs.

48:15Mike Wright:I think they have a top-tier quarterback in Baker Mayfield. His skill set, he's going to be the Z receiver. He's lining up off the line. He's being moved all over the place. Zach Robinson is coming in. Last year, like I said, lined up at the X for the majority of the snaps. He is much more versatile. You're going to have Chris Godwin in the slot. You're going to have McMillan and Ted Hurst at the X spot. And then Abuka is going to be your go-to player all over the field and so I'm just so excited for the upside and potential for a book to really solidify himself as a top 12 receiver all year long yeah not impossible um we we've seen enough from him in those games to see what kind of a route runner he is uh he understands everything about this offense he knows how to track the ball um I I'm just very very excited for the for the future of Emeka Abuka.

49:08And I think you do inherit in fantasy.

49:11Mike Wright:One of the reasons I pivoted to him, I was thinking about going A.J. Brown here. I like A.J. Brown in New England, but I wanted to go with Abuka because I think you have a little bit of a discount here. You have a discount and it's the, you know, I don't know what he is discount. And so I think you should draw your conclusions from half a year of being one of the most successful rookies in the history of the game. that's a tremendously difficult thing to do you'll listen to this show the last 12 years most of the time we say hey watch out for the second half of the year for rookie wide receivers to get acclimated

49:44Andy Holloway:this is what took place for a lot of what we meant for a book it was though watch out right in this

49:49Mike Wright:situation gonna get you watch out for the second half of the year you're gonna start him a bunch of times that you wish you hadn't but i don't think this guy stopped being a talented wide receiver everything from camp healthy baker i'm really in on a book i think this is an opportunity being drafted as the wide receiver 19 where you you have top seven potential for mecca abuka this year so i want to jump back on that bandwagon forgive the second half and expect big things from an offense i actually like i mean the off the offensive line is going to be a little bit better bucky irving's going to be back play action i i think abuka could come out and be a

50:23Andy Holloway:dominator to start the year his i'm trying to remember where he was being drafted last year like I don't think we're that far off you know where you weren't first you weren't sure you knew he's a first round in the pedigree and all that he was I think like a six-round pick and now you have at least some proof of concept uh no he's he could be that player we thought he was and he's still going in the fourth I I like the 80 it just seems like I don't think that ADP is going to change much I don't it it shouldn't and um what was it you know the first half of the year last year this was a up over 15 fantasy points a game yeah and the the changes that happened

51:07Jason Moore:mid-season with the injuries around him shifted him around he's coming in this year being placed in the role that he is supposed to be playing that they drafted him to play and that he was really special I we all love the talent I think we all forgive the injuries and expect the offense to be much better and that you mentioned it Andy but I think it bears mentioning again the offensive line for the Buccaneers are one of the fantasy storylines that really needs to be thought of more because this is a good NFL offensive line that had so many injuries last year that they were a bad like you only really look at the outliers you know middle of the pack is whatever.

51:48Jason Moore:This is a top offensive line that was a bottom offensive line, very similar to what we've been talking about with the Chargers. That changes things for a fantasy offense.

52:00Mike Wright:All right, Mike. Why don't you go next and Jason can round us out.

52:03Andy Holloway:All right. You already got my fire pick. I think this is the one that has Andy a little bit flustered. Ice. My ice player for 2026 is Quinshon Judkins hmm I haven't what are you trying to do over there Jay you're just hitting a lot of buttons with getting no sound huh

52:29Mike Wright:is he trying to cheer or is he trying to boo

52:31Andy Holloway:I don't know oh the people hate it well that's alright like Jon Snow against the Horde

52:38Mike Wright:does that mean that Jason is booing it too or is he just shit

52:42Jason Moore:he's booing me I am booing Mike I am much more on your side here Andy

52:48Mike Wright:I haven't cried in a bunch of years but I feel like crying right now.

52:51Jason Moore:I assume a lot of your arguments are going to be the arguments I made about H &M but the ADP is the difference. Go ahead Mike. They will be.

52:58Andy Holloway:They are pretty similar. Bad team. Bad quarterback. Let's start with the actual player. Oh no. This one's good. You won't like these numbers.

53:11Mike Wright:Fight. I'm really fine with you not liking him because he's on the Browns. I'm not going to be fine with what you say next.

53:18Andy Holloway:These are just statistics, so you can get mad at that. So rush success rate, I'm going to start with that, and sometimes it can get a little bit lost where you're like, what is that exactly? So rush success rate is based off of the down and distance, how many of the yards did the running back get? So whether a play gains at least 40 % of the yards required on first down, 60 % of the yards on second down and then of course you need all the yards on a third or fourth down and this is why we say you know yards per carry it's not everything things happen you know you

53:57Mike Wright:get a bunch of carries inside also historically not a valuable metric to look at for rookies

54:03Andy Holloway:right just sometimes you're inside the five and you get some carries and it's like oh my yards per carry was down a little bit there but here's the thing rush success rate is like this is based off of the flow of the game. Like I said, 40 % of the yards are first down. If you look at rush success rate out of 55 running backs, you got it? Is that the number? Judkins ranked 55.

54:31Mike Wright:You think this man cares about rush success? He's trying to survive in Cleveland. This is the open plains, Mike. This is survival. It's

54:41Andy Holloway:bad. to not be like to have truly a lack of success on your carries you'll get a you'll get a big one every once in a while and you'll score some touchdowns but we're talking about overall efficiency like you're you're absolutely just killing the offense you can have players with a low yards per carry like so Emmanuel Wilson under four but a 58 % rush success Basel Tootin 3.7 that's real bad but a 58 % rush success even the much maligned Zach Charbonnet where we're like why do they keep putting in charms 48 % and here's Quinshawn Judkins at the very bottom at 41 % of the time he's having a what you would call a successful rush as a receiver 33 percent only devin singletary was worse among qualified rookie running backs over the last decade efficiency wise he was lacking as the rookie and i just don't see it changing for them the cleveland browns was shockingly to me the cleveland browns are a six and a half win total team which is somehow better than the miami dolphins significantly better they are 30th in The Cleveland Browns are 30th in average implied total in terms of the total points that will be scored in their games.

56:00Andy Holloway:Cleveland is favored in only two games this year and none after their week 11 bye. And the offensive line, in consensus offensive line rankings around everywhere, Cleveland is dead last in terms of what people are expecting from this offensive line.

56:17Mike Wright:There was a point in your adoration for Kenneth Walker in which there were a lot of these numbers for you. But you believed in the player. And I admit it's going to be tough sledding for that offense. I think the Browns are going to be a better team than people expect. Losing Myles Garrett.

56:37Andy Holloway:That's in the defense. Last year is the defense can keep you engaged.

56:41Mike Wright:The defense was number eight last year in fantasy points score. They will not be number eight. They will still be a very good defense. They intercepted a lot of passes. They caused a lot of forced fumbles. I know Myles Garrett dominates a lot. So much of that is Myles. Nobody back for him. You know what I mean? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, you get Quinn coming in, and I think that they're going to be a better team than people expect. I do. That part, Jason, will disagree with me on. I think they will be. But every year you get surprised by some teams that are supposed to be basement dwellers.

57:07Andy Holloway:I think they will be plenty bad. Plenty bad is fair. The difference between A-Chan and Judkins. ADP, of course, risk being baked into cost, but A-Chan is an elite pass catcher. is Judkins an elite pass catcher no

57:24Mike Wright:they've talked about him being three down look this is a belief in the talent of the player

57:27Andy Holloway:the running back coach said he thinks he could be a three down running back

57:31Mike Wright:it's better than him not saying that this offense also has actual like if you look at what happened last year there's no one to throw the ball to like adding Concepcion adding Boston, having Fannin coming in here they have some actual weapons they actually have good players on this team I'm just saying he's not going to be alone.

57:52Jason Moore:Spencer Fano tackle with the ninth pick overall. So that offensive line hopefully is better than it was last year, even if it's.

57:59Mike Wright:Yeah, this one just hurts my heart.

58:00Jason Moore:I totally get it. I actually am more on any side solely because I think he is a good player. A lot of those statistics and the yards per carry and stuff, I think if you go back and you watch the film, he was impressive. And if this offensive line is a little better, if Shadour is better, and he should be in year two, I'm not going to be shocked. Versus ADP. Let's just have that conversation. He is in the fifth round, running back 22.

58:23Mike Wright:I mean, I'm just, I'm all up in that.

58:26Jason Moore:Yeah, at that point, for a guy who can be a three-down back. I knew it would be a tough day, man. If you look at last year. I talked to my therapist.

58:33Mike Wright:I knew what was going on today.

58:34Jason Moore:Last year, his rookie season, Quinchon Judkins, he got injured early in camp, didn't play week one, got worked back in a little bit in week two. From that point until the game where he got, unfortunately, injured, he was playing a workhorse role he was on pace for 300 rushing attempts and yes it was inefficient

58:54Mike Wright:but over a thousand rushing yards my as a rookie i mean if he's being drafted at running back 22 and you have him as ice you probably have him below his adp i do so then we can bet like a top

59:07Andy Holloway:24 running back uh that should be easy you know i mean what you want you're happy if you get a top 24 out of quinshawn judkins who's being drafted as running back 22 i'll go let's go where my mark

59:21Mike Wright:is right now 28 i'm confused now that seems even better for you yeah no i did it backwards yeah

59:27Andy Holloway:you did all right fine go top 24 i did it backwards this is where jason would have taken

59:34Mike Wright:that bet i saw it right away i was like here's where my mind is here's where my mind is at because

59:39Andy Holloway:Hey, Ryan Heath gets another shout-out. I would have given you top 20. Ryan Heath, another shout-out to him. Because we love Todd Monken's offenses. Absolutely. They produce fantasy points for us. In Todd Monken offenses, though, a different player has led in rush attempts per game and targets per game. Yeah, they have capable pass catchers

1:00:00Mike Wright:that aren't Quinchon Judkins like Dylan Sampson.

1:00:02Andy Holloway:And one of the wild ones about this is, Doug Martin all the unfortunate stuff with Doug Martin but as a player RIP in 2016 Doug Martin was averaging 16 rushing attempts per game and Charles Sims led the running back position at 4.6 targets per game Doug Martin had a season of 70 targets this wasn't like he couldn't do it they just changed and then you've had Martin and Sims Peyton Barber and Jacquez Rogers Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt Gus Edwards and Justice Hill and then of course Derek Henry and Justice Hill this is a team that's going to be losing a bunch of games and Dylan Samson you like Javante more than him uh I'm just thinking yeah I do like there's a handful of

1:00:50Mike Wright:guys that are probably in the not catching a ton of passes category I was just curious where you

1:00:54Andy Holloway:might slot him so it's like if they are losing Samson's probably going to be on the field and Samson is just he was a better pass catcher than I think you're right than he was last year so that But there's just so many problems of how many touchdown opportunities, losing games, those types of things. And then opportunity cost, the way I look at it right now, running backs going right behind Judkins. David Montgomery.

1:01:18Mike Wright:I'll take Judkins every day of the week.

1:01:19Andy Holloway:I'll probably – I'll take Judkins there. That's okay. But then it's Tootin, DeAndre Swift, and Jadarian Price, all going after Quinshawn Judkins. You would take Price over Judkins? I think – yeah.

1:01:30Mike Wright:I mean, that's when I would easily go Judkins.

1:01:32Andy Holloway:I'll take Price. What about you, Jay?

1:01:35Jason Moore:I think I would go Judkins in most of those situations. I like the player. I like the talent. And it doesn't cost much.

1:01:43Mike Wright:Yeah, you do get discounts when they play for the Browns.

1:01:45Jason Moore:Yeah. Well, let's heat it up in here and talk about someone that I think we all like. A dog. Absolute dog. Fire. Tyler Warren. Tyler Warren. Woof, woof. Yeah. I mean, some of these tight ends out there, they don't got that dog in them. But Tyler Warren is a yak master, a yards after catch machine. He breaks tackles. He's a first read in their offense. Coming into year two, I believe he's the centerpiece of the Colts offense. You know, it's Jonathan Taylor as in the running game. But in the passing game, you know, right now the hotness is not Tyler Warren. It's Colston Loveland. It's the other year two tight end.

1:02:31Jason Moore:However, statistically, the better rookie season was Tyler Warren. I know Loveland got off to a slow start and had the playoffs that looked great, but Tyler Warren was awesome, especially when he had Daniel Jones. And now coming into early in the offseason, it seemed like, well, we're not sure if Daniel Jones will be ready for week one, if he'll start the season on the pup. Daniel Jones is full go 11 on 11 from day one of training camp. And while he might not be as mobile and running for his own fantasy value, as a passer, Daniel Jones for this offense, like Tyler Warren, should be even used more.

1:03:08Jason Moore:There's all the arguments of, you know, Andy is very in love with Alec Pierce because you have a lot of missing targets from Michael Pittman. I like Josh Downs and a lot of dollars. But Tyler Warren is better than those guys. The argument over on the, you know, for the Bears is like, well, is it Luther Burden? Is it Rome? And it's probably Mr. Loveland. Mr. Loveland. But I think if I'm competing with targets, Loveland and Rome is greater sign than Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. I agree with that. So you have less competition. And this is playing for a team in Shane Steichen who designs plays for players.

1:03:51Jason Moore:Daniel Jones threw to his first read 77 % of the time. What do the other coaches do? Well, I'm saying that my point is the first read target, the plays.

1:04:03Mike Wright:You're saying that he's going to build stuff specific to Tyler Warren. Yes. It just sounded funny like the other guys are drawing up plays for fans.

1:04:11Jason Moore:I'm saying specifically for a single player. This play design is to go to only this guy, which you saw. I mean, by far the highest first-read targets was Daniel Jones last year. And if you look at those games with Daniel Jones and the splits with Tyler Warren, up until week 13 of his rookie season, he was the tight end three in fantasy football. He was great. He was 10.7 a game at tight end as a rookie.

1:04:37Mike Wright:We were at the point where we were like, we're going to do it again. Like three straight years of the number one. Because we had Laporta, Bowers. We were like, Warren might be number one. Which I think that's the biggest question for people on your fire pick is, can Warren be number one on the year? Because I think that says something.

1:04:55Jason Moore:I believe Warren can be in the mix for number one. The reason I maybe don't think he can be number one is not anything to do with Warren. It's Brock Bowers. I think Brock Bowers is going nuclear this year, and no one will be able to catch him. It'll be a difference maker of Travis Kelsey of old where he's four points ahead of next. But I think Tyler Warren can be number two. I think Tyler Warren can go out and get 150 targets. And there's very few tight ends in the league. You're talking about Bowers. You're talking about McBride. And I think Tyler Warren is in that realm of like the leader of the offense could be Tyler Warren.

1:05:26Jason Moore:Last year, you know, he was one of only four rookie tight ends with 70 catches and 800 yards. That was Bowers, Laporta, and Jeremy Shockey back in the day. And the end of the season was so bad because he's playing with Phillip Rivers, Grandpa Rivers, and the collapse of the Colts that were not hot and bothered. The way that when the Bears go into the playoffs and all of a sudden you see the continued trajectory of Loveland, now everyone's like, oh, Loveland. So to me, Tyler Warren, who's being drafted last in this elite tier, he is the cheapest. You can grab a first-round pick, a second-round pick, a third-round pick.

1:06:02Mike Wright:Please your target in all those drafts because you just take the lowest. I love grabbing him.

1:06:06Jason Moore:I think he will be fire for fantasy this year. I don't disagree.

1:06:11Mike Wright:What's going on back there? Are we doing good, Al? We're good.

1:06:15Andy Holloway:I was just chuckling at Jason saying I love grabbing him. Oh, we're children. Yes. We're children. I am a child.

1:06:23Jason Moore:The people hate children. See, every once in a while, I mean, I see you. When Jerry gets the giggles, it's almost always some. Something like that. Inappropriate joke.

1:06:31Mike Wright:I just wanted to make sure I was doing everything right over here. You're doing a great job. Clearly, I was doing fine. No more throwing to the deucers. I'm sorry about that. Yeah, it hasn't worked out. All right. Top 10 quarterback rankings. favorite late round picks coming up on tomorrow's show. Wednesday, we got tight end rankings. Thursday, mock draft. A lot coming this week. Again, make sure you click subscribe. Follow the show. We're over on X at the FF ballers. Instagram.com slash fantasy footballers. Do it. As Jason said, do it. Do it. We'll catch you next time. Goodbye.

1:07:09Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

1:07:26Mike Wright:The perpetual pen tapper. The arbitrary fridge reorganizer. The holiday party planner that starts in May. Principal knows your star employees have their work quirks. Principal also knows how much these employees mean to your business. You need them. They need benefits. Work with Principal so they can help you help your team with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for them. Principal Life Insurance Company, Des Moines, Iowa. CBS Sunday, September 13th. The new season of 60 Minutes begins. Okay, let's go. Every second, a story unfolds. This is one of the great mysteries of human nature.

1:08:02Mike Wright:Every minute, a new question. You were buying access to the president. Every week, a deeper understanding. When we take the field, the expectations are to win. It's time. We're preparing to go out on this race. For the new season. It was gunfight. All the way in, all the way out. 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday, September 13th, and streaming on Paramount+.