Fantasy Football - NFC North Breakdown + Upside Players - Podcast for 7/18

14:39Jason Moore:obviously as a young player he should be getting better more time in the system more time with the players. You add in the fact that this is a very, very, like two thirds of his weapons last year of his prime, Luther Burden and, and Mr. Love and Mr. Love land were rookies, right? Like they should get better as NFL players. They should step up. Um, DJ Moore did not do anything special on his own. He barely broke tackles, which is like what he was so good at last year. So I think just simply the offense of weapons getting better, Mr. Loveland getting better and healthy to start the year. Luther Burden coming into year two.

15:17Jason Moore:And then Rome, I believe is a very good wide receiver, a true alpha one. I'm worried about the foot, but I've read things recently that make me realize maybe that's overblown. I think the last thing that I saw statistically with this injury is production should not take a hit at all from me getting back to whatever his peak is. However, the only thing that does happen is a little bit higher re-injury risk going forward.

15:49Andy Holloway:Okay. For the first month of the season, Rome was the wide receiver three. We talked about a bit on the mock draft that we just did. From weeks six through 13, he was the wide receiver 38. Really, really plummeted. Let's stay with the wide receivers. We have a gang fight. Yeah. Like the Chicago Bears for fantasy purposes, the Rome people, the Burden people.

16:15Jason Moore:What is the weapon that you have with Luther Burden? Because I feel like with Roma, it's like a lead pipe. Okay. You know, it's like a, it's not a speed weapon. You know, it's a big, powerful weapon. That's the Roma Dunes. What is the Luther Burden weapon?

16:31Andy Holloway:Luther Burden, you know, the butterfly knife?

16:35Jason Moore:Oh, definitely. It's the butterfly. Absolutely. But it's still not that big. No, it's not that big. And then in the end. That's not a knife. Right. And then it's like, oh, who's going to win? And then Mr. Loveland's got a gun. It's just like, all right. We know how this plays out. But yeah, I like this. I like this gang fight mentality here. So let's get into our gang fight. Roma Dunze v. Luther Burden. Okay.

16:59Andy Holloway:So Rome, like we said, he started hot. Luther Burden, he was banged up in training camp, you know, around there. so it took him longer to get integrated. And the truth is, production-wise, he didn't do a ton. We do have weeks 14 through 17 where he had a 21 % target share. And in that time, Rome was hurt and Mr. Loveland was down at 17%. And then they got into the playoffs and Colson Loveland said, give me that. 28 % target share for a rookie tight end in the playoffs is, that's wild. That is wild where I believe that's the signal of the answer to all Chicago Bears pass catchers. It's Colston Loveland.

17:47Andy Holloway:There is the slight bugaboo of 42 % of Mr. Loveland's points came in the fourth quarter. Because if you recall, the Chicago Bears had a, I mean, probably because of the defense, but they had a habit of getting manhandled. And then in the fourth quarter, having a miracle comeback, often on the back of Colston Loveland. His draft price, he's going in the fourth. He's the tight end three. I think it's very worth taking on the risk for the upside. For the wide receivers, we talked on the mock draft, the Luther Burden's ADP, it's just so high and leaving little to no margin for error.

18:31Jason Moore:He's drafted 10 wide receiver spots ahead of Rome as of this recording, which that's fine. So now, so part of the argument, that's fair. When you're talking about which guy you want, which guy could break out, because it's really important. Like for fantasy football, for the footland that are making their decision, it's really important to get this right. Obviously, we don't have the answer because we have two different answers. One of us or neither of us has it. But the argument, I think, for both of us is talent of the player. And really, not Burden. It's talent of Rome. Right. I think that the reason that you love, because we both like the talent of Luther Burden.

19:11Jason Moore:Yes. He looked great on the field. He has some really nice metrics behind the scenes. Yeah, his targets per route run and yards per route run are incredible. They are really incredible. Now, on the flip side, he only had two really good games, and everything else was kind of worthless. but it really comes down to what do you believe in Rome you weren't a huge believer in Rome the prospect coming into the NFL draft I was much higher obviously he was drafted in the top 10 I think he's a I think he's an alpha I think he is a a true wide receiver one for a team and what I mean by that is the target earner the guy who is going to you know if you look at the first seven games um I brought this up uh sometime in the off season but you know listeners were lower the foot injury that started and caused all the problems with Rome right that started um heading into the week nine matchup against the Bengals and from that point on the rest of the season he was literal hot garbage I mean you couldn't touch him because it was so stinky but prior to that injury the first seven games he had a 25 percent market share of the team 37 percent of the wide receiver targets uh he was on pace for 135 total targets he was the clear number one for the team got injured and then it kind of went a bunch of different directions I believe as he is currently healthy he will be the number one target okay which would make him going in the

20:42Andy Holloway:sixth round is that's perfectly acceptable i think i don't have a problem with with where rome is going and the the upside like i don't i don't know if burden's going to be on very many of my teams it's just gotten to this point where it's the adp is so out of control and it doesn't

21:00Jason Moore:seem like it's getting cheaper people are still people are still like steaming them up higher

21:04Andy Holloway:they're like oh i'll take up number one so just that's what i would say be careful with that with that ADP. The running backs, I really like DeAndre Swift. He is actually the only world. I know. I know. It's terrible. The only running backs to finish inside the top 24 each of the last six years, Derrick Henry and DeAndre Swift. No matter how much garbage I would talk about DeAndre Swift, he would still be able to finish in totality with a bunch of fantasy points. now the breakdown of deandre swift versus kyle monungay do do do do it's over the over the second half it got a lot closer in terms of monungay it was starting to be trusted by this team he felt like a player you know because i think he was a seventh rounder i mean he was a very late pick he felt like a running back that could get replaced in the offseason but I guess he built up enough trust and he's it's going to be a timeshare I I prefer DeAndre Swift because of the the upside of you know he wasn't used as much as a pass catcher as he has been in his career but he can do that he and he can do that that's like his superpower yeah in in my evaluation of DeAndre Swift but you're you just you want pieces of of of this type of an offense and I have no problem with where DeAndre Swift is being drafted and in our mock Kyle Manunga was like a second to last pick or something.

22:38Andy Holloway:He was in the double digit rounds, which is like, that's incredible value. There's, there does exist a world where Mononga has more rushing touchdowns than DeAndre Swift.

22:48Jason Moore:That is true. I don't think there exists a world where he is a true 50, 50 timeshare, or certainly not takes over the lead role over Swift while healthy. However, when you talk about insurance backs, there's not always a clear-cut backup. There's not always a clear-cut opportunity should an injury happen. This is one of those that needs to be highlighted for this year. Should DeAndre Swift go down to injury, it will be Mononga, and he will be up towards league winner status simply because of the offense, the team, the way they want to run the ball. And what we saw him do, he was a seventh-round pick.

23:26Jason Moore:I'm not bullish on Mononga. people think he's a flex with benefits I don't see it that way he got a lot of touchdowns last

23:34Andy Holloway:year and there was a little bit of luck from week 10 on Mononga handled 45 percent of the carries

23:39Jason Moore:yes and it was about a 200 carry pace um I just don't know that you're going to want to start that if he gets a touchdown you're fine but on a on on the reg I don't think you're going to want to however there was one game DeAndre Swift missed last year it was week nine and in that game you had 31 opportunities go to Manunga. So we have the proof that should Swift go down, Manunga will be pretty much a bell cow. I mean, 31 opportunities. He scored 21.3 fantasy points. It was 26 for 176. The Bengals. Oh, oh. Grain of salt. But the point is they gave him everything. So I do like Manunga as a late round insurance back.

24:22Jason Moore:because Caleb was the QB1 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

24:27Andy Holloway:The Bengals were so nice to play against. They put a shellac in 47-42. Man, I forgot that game got that crazy. They're for the schedule. They open on the road against Carolina. Then it's Minnesota, Philly, the Jets, and the Packers. So they're favored in five of their first six games.

24:47Jason Moore:It's telling that they are favored against Minnesota and favored against Philadelphia. Both are at home. Minnesota's at home, yeah. Yeah, but Philly? I mean, that's a tough matchup, and they're currently favored. So, yeah. All right, we're going to take a quick break,

25:01Andy Holloway:and then we'll talk about the Green Bay Packers.

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27:40Andy Holloway:Green Bay Packers were 9-7-1. So they did not beat their 2025 projected win total of 9.5. This year, Jason, they are projected for 10.5.

27:53Jason Moore:It makes sense. The team finished 9-7-1, but the team was 9-4-1 before Jordan Love had a concussion in Week 16. So this was a team at that point in time that looked like they were... Honestly, they looked like they were going to win the Super Bowl. like they also before Micah Parsons went down the Micah Parsons injury and then that just destroyed their defense he's so good um it's worth knowing that Michael Parsons will be back this year but he will not be back at the beginning of the season so and that's good for fantasy purposes um they're going to need to score more without Micah Parsons there I expect he will start on the pup uh he's come out and said like he's going to take his time and make sure he is completely ready if he misses half the season and honestly if you're the Packers whatever you're going to win enough games without him where you want him at full strength fully healthy for when it matters

28:49Andy Holloway:in the playoffs um it's a good team they were four and five in one score games uh Warren Sharp has them down for the 14th toughest strength of schedule so you know it's kind of right there in the middle offensively it's a great team and the defense was very strong as well dude do you

29:07Jason Moore:see this stat? Which one? This is an unbelievable stat. Christian Watson, Tucker Craft, and Jaden Reed. Last year, they did not play one snap together. That's crazy. That is.

29:23Andy Holloway:They just took turns being injured, I guess. Matt LaFleur, 76 wins, tied for the second most in NFL history by a coach through their first seven seasons. so it's solid weren't people like

29:39Jason Moore:weren't people wanting to fire LaFleur he was on the hot seat people were getting sick it was like he lost a couple of games after losing his two most important players

29:50Andy Holloway:goodness gracious people man

29:52Jason Moore:it's a long season have some grace I remember as a Cardinals fan trying to pile on yeah I hate that guy you should fire him You should definitely fire him. And then we got the other LaFleur. So, you know. Yeah.

30:11Andy Holloway:Hopefully it's. Matt's hair is much better.

30:14Jason Moore:Oh, my gosh. Than what. My hair is better.

30:19Jason Moore:Honestly. Honestly. Baby LaFleur. I hope you're great. I was rooting for you to get the job. You have too big a forehead to go straight up with your hair. You can't. Guys. Guys, if you've got a big forehead, you've got to have some of the hair hit the forehead. That's just the rules. If you've got a really tiny - I don't make them. I don't. Yeah, just follow them. If you've got a really tiny forehead from your eyebrows to your hairline, go up. It's just math, people.

30:51Andy Holloway:It's like vertical stripes. Right. Yes. Vertical or horizontal stripes. They do things. Anyways, the floors. All right. So Jordan Love, let's start there. he is a good quarterback i i in fact think jordan love is a great quarterback the numbers for him among 38 qualifying quarterbacks with 200 or more dropbacks he's first in epa with a clean pocket sixth in passer rating seventh in completion percentage over expectation fourth in pressure to sack ratio like he is jordan love is very very good i think he is a good quarterback definitely

31:26Jason Moore:I do not think he is a great quarterback. I think he is a good quarterback with a great offensive mind. Okay, yeah. You can give credit to LaFleur. He's in a system where, oh, we got LaFleur. See what I mean? Baby LaFleur is on the screen. Baby LaFleur, you just got to bring the hair down a touch. You've got great hair. You've got great hair. Yeah. Just don't do that with it. Anyways. Yeah, I mean, so Matt LaFleur, head coach of the Packers here, he runs a great team, a great offense. He knows that the running game with Josh Jacobs helps them win ball games. That opens things up for Jordan Love, puts him in great situations.

32:12Jason Moore:I expect this to be definitely a top-half offense no matter what. I mean, last year, 11th in points per game. I think they'll be right around there. Not like one of the Bengals, you know, Lions barn burners that you expect to be putting up massive points every game. But they will be a top half off offense, if not a top third offense. And so you want pieces of it. There's a nebulous wide receiver room. And let's talk about the running room first, because it's it's a lot clearer with. you know it's cloudy with a chance of greatness which is the clouds are josh jacobs has still some pending yes his legal the field issues he was accused of uh domestic assault yes he was i believe he was arrested yes then new evidence came out he was released as of this moment what has happened is the legal team for josh jacobs has said they're happy with where it is and uh They expect nothing to come of it.

33:14Andy Holloway:I think legally it's probably gone.

33:17Jason Moore:It's probably gone. However, it has also been reported that it is not case closed. They're still leaving room to investigate. So the risk rating for Josh Jacobs and the UDK will factor that in. Let's take that out and say he plays because I do believe that he will play as many games as he's healthy for this season. I don't think he'll be suspended. that I don't think he'll be arrested. And in which case, Josh Jacobs, he's a darn good pick, man. He is... You don't have any concerns of... Like on the field? Yeah. No, I don't. Obviously, last year he got injured. If you want to be... Well, he did.

34:02Jason Moore:And he's still getting...

34:04Andy Holloway:His role is clear. He will be... He's the primary and featured running back of this team.

34:10Jason Moore:Now, he's the primary scorer of this team. What I love is that after the first half of the first season that he was a Packer, they figured out, holy crap, when we get around the goal line, let's give it to him. And they haven't changed. They haven't wavered. And he just scores touchdowns. Through the first nine games last year, he was on pace for 20 rushing touchdowns. And he's done that every year as a Packer. So I don't have fears. He was a running back two or better every single game before the injury, and he had several games where he was a top ten running back, and I'm seeing three games where he was a top five running back.

34:48Jason Moore:Then he gets injured with the knee injury, comes back way too fast, pushes through it, still has good games for fantasy, and then flames out. Had that game where he's trying to play and LaFleur was mad at him. Yeah, he got a weird benching. Yeah, he got four carries in the game even though he started. So it was a weird end of the season. I think that's really weighing on people's memory. Well, there's that.

35:15Andy Holloway:He's essentially 28 and a half. He was not incredibly efficient. Like yards per carry, we say it's not everything, but it's a piece of the puzzle. He was right there at four over the first month, still electric for fantasy football. but I mean three and a half 3.7 1.9 3.9 and where I was going is he is the featured running back but the health of the other running backs of the team is specifically Marshawn Lloyd I think has kind of forced more work on Jacobs than than maybe the Packers really want to give him now Now, a bet on Marshawn Lloyd getting injured has been 100 % hit, right? Yeah. We have six total carries through two years for Marshawn Lloyd, but he's currently healthy, and I've been reading from beat reporters over what's been taking place over the summer that he looks great.

36:14Jason Moore:He is a talented back. He was a day-two pick. He was pick 88 in the third round, Marshawn Lloyd. I really liked him out of USC. Very explosive. and they don't have explosiveness with Jacobs. So they need that speed. They're not going to have it. I refuse to believe three years into the career that Marsha – the greatest – it's said over and over, the most important attribute in a football player, the most important ability is availability. He doesn't have it. And so, sure, one path towards Josh Jacobs not being good is Marshawn Lloyd. that's an easy bet for me to take the other side.

36:55Andy Holloway:There's that. There's just Jacobs getting older, perhaps slowing down. And then will the game script allow for what they did last year? Because the defense was so dominant. But at the end of the year when they lost Micah Parsons, they were a very, very different defense. So over the first part of the season, do you see any risk that Jacobs won't be producing?

37:26Jason Moore:I don't. I think for fantasy football, he's near a bell cow. He is always given the touchdown opportunities and converts them. He's still involved in the passing game. He's paid to be their main starter. And so I don't have a lot of fear. The fear is age and injury. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, so he's going right now as the running back 14. There are guys like when we did an early mock draft, we were talking about we drafted Omari and Hampton ahead of Josh Jacobs. Then we were looking at it and we're like, man, Josh Jacobs is just going to score more fantasy points. And that might be potentially true. I will say that the upside case at 29 is not, Josh Jacobs is not going to be a top three running back.

38:11Jason Moore:He's not going to be a fantasy football breaker, which is why he's drafted as the running back 14 right now. He can't do the high-end outcome that some of these young bucks can do. But he will score a ton of fantasy points. I'm not even remotely worried about that.

38:28Andy Holloway:All right. The wide receiver position, it has been cleared as Romeo Dobbs is now a New England Patriot and Dontavian Wicks is a Philadelphia Eagle, leaving Christian Watson, Jaden Reed, and Matthew Golden as your primary starting three wide receivers. How are, I have expressed, I'm very interested in Christian Watson right now, especially when you talk about his price going as the wide receiver 30. He just got another extension. He is truly a curious case of a guy who doesn't really have a lot of statistics to his name. As a rookie, 611 yards, 422, 620, 611, a lot of that being injury-related.

39:18Andy Holloway:He's capped out at 15 games a couple years ago. But they keep paying him, and they keep wanting him around. And they were not aggressive in trying to bring Romeo Dobbs back and then trading Wicks away. They're going forward with these three as their main wide receivers. How are you attacking the Packers wide receiver room?

39:41Jason Moore:I think you – I am attacking it. That's what I'm doing. You want all three of these guys. You want a piece. You want a shot because someone I think is going to be very relevant for fantasy football. You still want Jaden Reed? Yeah, I do. I mean, last episode I took Jaden Reed over Matthew Golden. I still want Matthew Golden as well. he's a first round you know second year player who is going to get the opportunity to be that dude and i won't be surprised if like he comes out and he is the one he's the alpha that's what they drafted him for the first time in whatever 10 000 years that they took a first round wide

40:18Andy Holloway:receiver that optically it makes sense but i would be pretty surprised well i mean there's a reason i

40:22Jason Moore:can do there's a reason i took jayden reed we we didn't like matthew golden's collegiate tape we We were shocked that he was a first rounder. I had him as like a third round grade, which isn't bad, but it certainly isn't a star player. And then he really did get opportunities as a rookie and fail. I mean, Matthew Golden, here's a list of first round wide receivers over the last decade who failed to score a touchdown in the regular season. And keep in mind, he wasn't injured. He still failed to score a touchdown. Here's the list. Kevin White, Josh Doxon, Laquan Treadwell, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, Kadarius Toney, and Matthew Golden.

40:58Jason Moore:So Mike Williams got it together. Corey Davis had a career, and most of the list was bad. Considering that we went into last year not believing in Golden. Hey, Laquan Treadwell is still in the league, Jason. That is unbelievable. What an accomplishment for a bad player.

41:14Andy Holloway:Which Kyle wants us to make sure. Yes, he scored a touchdown in the playoffs. Yes.

41:18Jason Moore:we're talking about regular season regular season so um you you want to take a bet here because nebulous wide receiver rooms on good offenses you don't have to pay up for them right um if i'm going to take a bet the problem with jayden reed is not talent the problem with jayden reed is they refuse to play him in two wide receiver sets if you're not on the field you can't score fantasy points so which at some point you have to say there is a you got to question something about the talent or at least the way that matt lafleur sees i think they love how they use jayden reed I don't think they think of it as a negative.

41:49Jason Moore:They think of him positively in the role he has, and so they've got that locked in. I don't necessarily think that's a lack of talent. I do think that there is a world where if they go halfway through the season and Golden isn't getting it done and or Christian Watson gets injured again, now all of a sudden Jaden Reed isn't forced to be on the field in two wide receiver sets. I think Jaden Reed is a very good wide receiver. If he gets that opportunity, he'll do well. but we have to anticipate that Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, those are the two wide receivers on the field the most in two wide receiver sets.

42:22Jason Moore:Christian Watson has proven a lot more than Matthew Golden. So I take my bets, Christian Watson, Jaden Reed, Matthew Golden in that order. All three are worthy picks in fantasy football. For where they're going, the risk is already baked in. All right. And then Tucker Craft.

42:39Andy Holloway:See, now we've got to talk about a man. Oh, Tucker Craft. bully. Oh, it was happening. It was. He was their wide receiver one. It was happening. The breakout week two, the tight end one with six for 124 and a score. Has a couple down games, but then after the bye week. So it's just we talk about that a lot. Coming out of the bye week, that's where teams can start making some adjustments. Out of the bye week, Tucker Craft, tight end nine, seven, one, gets the unfortunate injury, tears his ACL, so he's out for the remainder of the season. How I have kind of proclaimed, I'm just, I'm going to go for it.

43:26Andy Holloway:I'm going to say screw it. I think he'll be ready at the beginning of the year. I can handle a couple slower games at the beginning of the season while Tucker Craft is re-acclimating, starting trying to figure out if he trusts his knee or not. He's just, he's so dominant. his athleticism is off the charts and I like Jordan Love I think the most realistic expectation for the Packers is a wash, rinse, repeat type of thing where it's we try to win with the running game but should things change and they call on Jordan Love Jordan Love had that season his first season, let me pull up the numbers his first season as a starter completes 64 % of his passes throws for over 4 ,100 yards and 32 touchdowns Jordan Love is very capable especially in this offense to get it done and there's a chance that that could open back up so where are you though, J.

44:29Jason Moore:Will Tucker Craft? Look, he's probably their best weapon if he didn't get that injury with the knee he would be drafted ahead of Colson Loveland right now because what he was doing Yeah, probably. What he was doing last year, he was on pace prior, including before the bye week. So the whole season prior to the knee, he was on pace for 1 ,139 receiving yards. That number, last year, only one tight end, Trey McBride, got over 1 ,000 yards. And he was on pace for 1 ,139. You look back, there were some injuries last year. Go back two years ago to see like, okay, what is 1 ,139 receiving yards? How does that factor in?

45:08Jason Moore:Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle were the only wide receivers or only tight ends at 1 ,100 yards. So he was in the alpha A tier. I think when we talk about this nebulous wide receiver room the answer is probably Tucker Kraft. The whole issue is the knee. The whole issue is the timeline to come back. I don't think he will be at full strength week one. It does seem surprisingly I mean it's it's less surprising now but for the timeline and the expectation when the injury happened and then the offseason seemed like well Tucker Craft's gonna start the season on the pup doesn't seem like that seems like Tucker Craft will be playing football in week one I do think he gets off to a slightly so slow start but if it's like last year where it's like you gotta deal with four down weeks from a tight end uh okay you have to whether you get him or not for most of them.

46:03Jason Moore:Right. But then you have the opportunity to have a true breakout. I am totally fine grabbing Tucker Craft. He was truly a bully out there.

46:15Andy Holloway:Right now, he's going in about the end of the sixth or middle of the sixth round or so. I think that's truly acceptable for the amount of risk. Their first six games, Jay, they are favored in all of them. That is nice. Even starting. Their favorite on the road against Minnesota. On the road against the Jets. Almost a touchdown favorite. Oh my gosh.

46:41Jason Moore:Jets, Atlanta, Tampa, Chicago, Dallas. Yeah. Those are. And without Micah Parsons for that stretch.

46:48Andy Holloway:That is juicy. That is an interesting opening schedule. For. Man. When you combine everything that's going on fantasy football wise. in draft cost for these guys?

47:03Jason Moore:That's very intriguing. To me, that's a feather in the cap of Josh Jacobs. If you're favored in all those games and you're winning those games, that's touchdowns, that's leads, that's the running game. All right, we're going to take a quick break,

47:14Andy Holloway:and then we'll talk about the Vikings.

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49:14Andy Holloway:Minnesota, nine and eight. Nine. Yeah. It's a curse. Nine got them to nine and eight, beating their projected win total of eight and a half. In one score games, they were five and four. And unfortunately, after week 13, or I'm sorry, not unfortunately, the opposite. They were four and eight, and then they won their final five games. That was enough for -

49:41Jason Moore:Four of those five games with J.J. McCarthy.

49:43Andy Holloway:I say that was enough for the team to be like, let's go get Kyler Murray. Yeah, we'll see what he can do. they played 10 games versus teams with a winning record that's the most in the NFL like the Viking season what they were able to accomplish with what was going on I think that's solid and that that's a big shout out to KOC Kevin O 'Connell is a great coach the coaching

50:05Jason Moore:in this division is unfair to this division right it's the only division in the NFL that is returning all four head coaches I believe and the reason they are is because they're all just so dang excellent like i mean i don't even know which one i'd like who would you want the most of these four of the coaches of these coaches i think i got my pick but like if you get one coach to start a franchise you can trade from any of these man four teams i think i'm i think

50:36Andy Holloway:i'm taking o 'connell oh okay i think where are you taking i think i'm going dan campbell

50:40Jason Moore:But I mean, there's no wrong answer here.

50:45Andy Holloway:This year, their projected win total is 8.5. So that's not too shabby. Warren Sharp has them with the 17th toughest schedule. The defense was top tier. The defense is what was keeping them in games as their offensively points per game 26, the yards per game 28.

51:09Jason Moore:Their last two wins they scored, well, with J.J. McCarthy, they scored 16 points in each of them. Wins. Nice. Yeah.

51:17Andy Holloway:That's getting it done. Defense very, very strong. But let's start with the quarterback position. Oh, gross. It is almost certainly going to be Kyler Murray.

51:31Jason Moore:Did you see the interview? I think it was, no, it wasn't Eisen. but it was an interview with him and they were talking about the he was talking about his competition at quarterback McCarthy was or Kyler no the head coach O 'Connell was in an interview who's Andy's favorite guy I can't remember why I can't think of the broadcast name Dan Patrick sorry Dan Patrick you're amazing Dan Patrick was interviewing and Kevin O 'Connell's like talking about the uh you know is they're they're gonna have this competition and Patrick's just like yeah I think Kyler Murray will be a very good quarterback for you this year and then Kevin O 'Connell just stares at him for five seconds like death ray he doesn't know how to respond it was so awkward so there is going to be a competition here everyone assumes Kyler will win it based on seeing JJ McCarthy what I was saying is it's

52:40Andy Holloway:almost certainly Kyler I don't think it's impossible I know I've been running a bit of like well what if JJ McCarthy wins the job it's not impossible it isn't to me uh like if you're in training camp and Kyler isn't like Kyler can lose the job yes he's just sort of better than McCarthy. Well, at that point, I don't know if I'm the coach, I'm just going to put McCarthy out there and see what happens for the first half of the year. But what we know is before JJ McCarthy, quarterbacks for Kevin O 'Connell are awesome. They're awesome for fantasy football. In terms of their pass percentage, they were 11th.

53:22Andy Holloway:This team throws the ball. O 'Connell doesn't really care we had Carson Wentz had a couple games this year where he was just out there slinging it before he was just absolutely sacrificed on the field but it's okay let's move forward.

53:40Jason Moore:They would rather have put a dead, battered broken, beaten down Carson Wentz out there than nine. I remember it was like well yeah nine

53:49Andy Holloway:he was hurt and then we had what was it? Brosmer? Max Brosmer which we got to see why he didn't

53:59Jason Moore:he wasn't put on the field to remember and I don't know maybe this was totally 100 % fully legit it felt like towards the end of his ankle injury J.J. McCarthy that it was like he could be back and they just don't want you remember like it was like it was a soft benching

54:22Andy Holloway:that they were hiding behind an injury. There were rumors of that.

54:25Jason Moore:And we don't know for sure, but it certainly seemed like that. I mean, that was a long time for that injury.

54:31Andy Holloway:Yes, and that was definitely possible. But also in the – because people are like, well, I didn't even see him get hurt. But then we saw the play where what happened to his ankle. You're like, oh, no, that definitely – he's hurt. It's just how bad is he hurt. Okay, so Kyler, let's say he gets the job. he does since uh since 2019 he has the fourth most rushing yards per game with uh with minimum 50 starts you have Lamar Fields Hurts and then there's Kyler with even he's got more on average

55:06Jason Moore:per game than Josh Allen he's got amazing talent in the legs that if utilized if coached well he should be able to very much dominate for fantasy football he's got better weapons that he's had in many many years and I think he's got a better coaching setup than he's had in many years if Kyler comes out and is the quarterback seven this year shouldn't be surprising to anyone he's a late round dart throw right now that when you look at the values if you don't want to take the Josh Allen early what you you know you don't want to spend a third fourth or fifth round pick on one of the known studs then the normal strategy is what late round mobile quarterbacks are available because those are the ones that could really leapfrog to breaking fantasy.

55:52Jason Moore:And so you've got Jackson Dart. Kyler Murray is definitely in that category. If he can get coached to run the ball better, more, and less like a coward, then he should be good for fantasy. He did run last year.

56:05Andy Holloway:I mean, he was right there with his average. He was averaging 34.5 rushing yards per game. So if it's Kyler, how do you feel about Justin Jefferson?

56:19Jason Moore:you got to feel better um you know it's it's one of those things where you know when Carson Wentz came in uh with Justin Jefferson Justin Jefferson was was fine he was on pace for like 170 targets 1600 receiving yards you don't that was a five-game stretch and you don't remember that because it was kind of mired in what was a terrible season he finished as wide receiver 22 didn't miss a game still had 141 targets and it was just out of sorts I we've seen Kyler support Hopkins in the past um and and this is you know Hopkins in his prime and Justin Jefferson in his prime is better than Hopkins in his prime so I do think that if Kyler is the quarterback I'm much more confident in Justin Jefferson being back to a top end wide receiver.

57:12Jason Moore:Now the one thing worth knowing, Kyler does not throw touchdowns. He is going to be someone that you're hoping for 20 passing touchdowns. And so the yardage should be there. The targets should be there. That is true.

57:28Andy Holloway:Kyler over his career, 26 was his highest in terms of passing touchdowns. first season.

57:35Jason Moore:Yeah, so I don't view Justin Jefferson, obviously, as a talent. You can put him right up in that top-tier, upper echelon, maybe the best wide receiver in football. For fantasy purposes in 2026, I see him as a back-end wide receiver one. Okay. Like seven to 12.

57:54Andy Holloway:And what if it's nine?

57:55Jason Moore:Are you even drafting Jefferson? I'm certainly not drafting Jefferson at cost because he's not going to plummet in drafts. He's Justin freaking Jefferson. You know, he's going to be up there high. And we had enough evidence last year. Not that J.J. can't get better, but I think where he's going in drafts, unless he's plummeting to a value. I mean, he's going every, you know, every place I've seen, he goes ahead of A.J. Brown. I would rather have A.J. Brown than Justin Jefferson by a country mile.

58:24Andy Holloway:The running back position, there's guys there. And you need to take a shot. And you need to take a shot. We got Aaron Jones. He is back. He is going as the running back 36. Jordan Mason is going as the running back 43. Now, when Aaron Jones returned from – he got a little bit banged up, but from week eight on he averaged over 15 opportunities per game. That's a 32 % workhorse rating. He was getting a bunch of opportunities. This is a team you want to take a shot. I still fluctuate between the two of them, who I really prefer between Jones. Jordan Mason's the better on the ground but we know we want our fantasy running backs to catch the ball which Aaron Jones can still do that I want to talk about old, Aaron Jones is 31 so it's Aaron Jones Sr.

59:14Jason Moore:now and he didn't have a kid he just got old enough where they said you want Sr. on the jersey? that's fine

59:24Andy Holloway:this is going to be a good offense is my projection of so i would be taking shots on those two guys it would in the draft yesterday

59:32Jason Moore:or uh the last uh episode in our mock you we we both took these guys um towards the end of the round and you had the first opportunity you chose aaron jones yes had i been in your spot i would have taken jordan mason okay i think some of the quotes that i've seen coming out um not just i i I saw a quote from Matthew Collar, a Minnesota insider, that was talking about how this is Jordan Mason's backfield. Aaron Jones will spell and eat into passing notes.

1:00:04Andy Holloway:But he responded to me on Twitter, and he's like he wanted to walk that back a little bit.

1:00:11Jason Moore:Sure. Those aren't the quotes, though, that make me believe it is going to be Jordan Mason. It was actually Kevin O 'Connell talking about how they have to fix the running game this year. They were really, really, really upset with the running game last year, and they need to figure out a more permanent solution. And I just don't know at this stage of the career if you can fix it and really have a permanent solution with Aaron Jones Sr. at 32 years old being the cure. and I think Jordan Mason could if they could figure out how to utilize his skill set a little better and so that's why I'm putting Jordan Mason ahead but both should have a shot taken on them

1:00:54Andy Holloway:other wide receivers Jordan Addison he's still there they did bring Jawan Jennings into the fold on a one-year deal I honestly don't think there's a lot to talk about here it's Justin Jefferson and then and hey tj hawkinson oh man he got old so quick he got old so so quick it it was it was

1:01:16Jason Moore:really really fast he is 29 years old no man he feels like he's 43 he really does um i haven't seen him recently but i assume he his beard is entirely gray it's gotta be it has to be at 29 years old um you know he was always hockules or hawk strap i think he's hawk strap now um this is a guy who uh served his purpose he was a top five tight end three times uh in his first five years but you know he he just doesn't have i mean 8.6 yards per catch last year i see more of the same it's dink and dunk it's volume um he's just 8.6 yeah i mean it's i don't i don't care i don't care

1:01:57Andy Holloway:about hawkinson detroit lions they were nine and eight they did not meet their projected win total of ten and a half they were three and five and one score games they were the second most injured team in the nfl number one when you're talking about the defense oh man it was they were really

1:02:14Jason Moore:really beat up and then already this offseason they cut a guy oh for kidnapping um that's a new one. Yeah. It's like their curse on the defense. I feel like this is a couple years in a row where you look and you go, wow, they could have a really good defense. Nope. Psych.

1:02:41Andy Holloway:It's just... I think they'll be much, much better on the defensive side of the ball. Vegas agrees. Projected win total, 10.5. And Warren Sharp has them listed as the easiest strength of schedule this year they are favored in 14 of their first 15

1:03:00Jason Moore:games yeah I mean this was one of the advantages that the Chicago Bears had last year they had the fourth place schedule when you finish last in a division you get the best schedule and when you're like second or third in a division it really doesn't matter the the meat of the NFL teams are that you know that there's there's so much parody in the NFL that any team can beat any team but when you get the fourth place and you get the you're getting the losers you're getting a couple of your extra games that you get that other people don't get are against the losers and those guys are like the the Giants Tennessee and Arizona yeah so um spoiler I'm gonna put the Detroit Lions first in the division at the end because I think that their schedule, all these teams are good, and their schedule is easy enough where I expect them to win the most games.

1:03:56Andy Holloway:Jared Goff always puts up incredible passing numbers. Sometimes he's really, really good for fantasy. Last year he finished as the QB 9. He'll finish in the top 10. Yes, but it's... He will accumulate enough stats by the end to be a top 10 guy. And... Don't draft him. On the last two years, like, his bust games, they're very low, but the great games are... He just, he lives in good for the most of the time. He will have some spike weeks from time to time, but he's really more of a...

1:04:32Jason Moore:His consistency chart, his consistency score, which is the percentage of games where you exceed, basically, just a good total in four point passing touchdown leagues is 35 of his games he does that it's a d and this is for a guy who ironically his season-long consistency is always there he was quarterback eight and he was a d in consistency you don't want him as your weekly every week starter what you do want is pick him up off of waivers play him in the the right barn burner matchup against great offense at home uh those type of environments and yeah we'll see if their

1:05:08Andy Holloway:defense fixes, it'll be even tougher. But if their defense kind of collapses and gets hurt again, then Goff will be more in play. Aiden Hutchinson is healthy. Yeah. Jameer Gibbs is the talk of the offseason as David Montgomery is now on the Houston Texans. Jameer Gibbs is electric. Everybody's either running back one or running back two. honestly I don't have a lot to say about Jameer Gibbs because he's just he's that good he's either the first or like he won't make it out of the top three you know we had a we did a three wide receiver mock can't believe you got him third no I got wait yeah did I get Gibbs or Bijan I thought I got Bijan well it it doesn't matter he's he's gonna be great just just draft him there's really not a lot to break down here but let's talk about your guy jason sam laporta your favorite tight end yes from someone you just were dunking on non-stop for the beginning of the

1:06:13Jason Moore:offseason to a player you can't stop drafting well it really is opportunity cost i refuse to take a middle round tight end it is terrible strategy you are you are deleting opportunities to take players at wide receiver and running back who can really end up making an impact. They don't all make an impact, but you get more opportunities, more lottery tickets to grab that running back or wide receiver in the middle rounds who does break out, who was George Pickens last year, who just really makes a huge difference. Whereas Laporta in those rounds will not make a huge difference versus the field.

1:06:54Jason Moore:I've talked about that analytically ad nauseum. But he's not in the middle rounds anymore. He's not the fifth tight end off the board anymore. And he is talented enough. He is on an offense good enough. He has the touchdown opportunities enough where he checks all the boxes. This was never an anti-Laporta. Laporta's not a difference maker over average tight ends to give up opportunity costs in middle rounds. He's been slipping. I've got him in the ninth round, the tenth round. I love that. I love getting Laporta. If I'm near the double-digit rounds where I'm not giving up that much, now he does make a little difference.

1:07:28Jason Moore:I would much rather have him than Kyle Pitts. But it doesn't cost you much. So I think if Laporta stays cheap, I am in. It's so funny.

1:07:40Andy Holloway:Which transitions nice into this conversation about Jameson Williams because Jameson Williams, when Laporta is off the field, is an absolute demon and puts up huge points. We're talking a split from 48 yards per game when Laporta plays with Jameson Williams, and then when Laporta's off the field, Jameson's up to 85 yards per game.

1:08:04Jason Moore:The issue with that statistic is that there were two things that happened. One, Laporta got injured, and so J-Mo was way better, and so it looks like, wow, when he's off the field, that's what caused it. But the other thing that happened was Dan Campbell was really unhappy. You know, they lost Ben Johnson, and they didn't have an answer at offensive coordinator or play calling. He took over the play calling duties. He did not like how they were involving these weapons of theirs. And all of a sudden, they involved Jamison Williams. He was great. And so it's probably a both, but it could be an either or.

1:08:41Jason Moore:It could just be, look, with Laporta not there, Goff looked to his next read, and that next read was Jamison Williams, and he exploded. It could be solely that Dan Campbell was like, we've got to get the ball in this explosive player's hands more, and so I'm going to call plays for it. We don't know, but I don't think we can just assume it is when Laporta's off the field. Andy would be upset he's missing here. Wide receiver 27, are you interested in Jamison? So I have a really difficult time with Jamison. I'm not, and Andy would totally be in. I don't know. Fantasy philosophy, talk to me about this, Mike, because I find that I don't really love the boom-bust guys.

1:09:23Jason Moore:Okay. The guys who will win you a week but they'll lose you a week, and that is Jamison Williams. He'll finish way above wide receiver 27. Like, he will. So if you're drafting him as the 27th wide receiver off the board and all that matters is that he finishes higher than wide receiver 27 that's a great pick um the process of getting to those fantasy points is not always fun um because you're going to have games where he just disappears i don't know that that i enjoy those types and he does enjoy those types where do you stand and who's like what is the right way to think about it i mean it you can

1:10:01Andy Holloway:build your teams in different ways. I'm, I like those types of players because when they aren't, I think I'm a chicken when they're not an early pick, you know, like when my draft capital is, is burned on them, but in the back of the fifth or the early sixth round, Jamison Williams, I think he's a really solid pick that you, I like to have players, those, the, you know, the, the nitro, you put them in the flex or it's your wide receiver. He could be your wide receiver three and that would be like that's a scary combination of if you have two better receivers and then jameson's your third yes that was so and which is roster construction so that's how i prefer to construct my roster uh so i'm i'm in i think jameson williams is i think he's a good

1:10:48Jason Moore:i i i don't mind it i mean look this is an offense that should score an absolute magma amount of points you know this is like we talk about the packers the packers are a good offense or top half offense maybe a top third offense this is one of those teams where I expect them to score a ton of points you want players on here uh the team should be somehow even more explosive without David Montgomery uh you know no at no fault to him and all credit to Jameer Gibbs I saw a stat about like the per game fantasy points of every player in the history of um and I I don't I don't remember who tweeted this out it was neat I'm sorry I can't give you credit but I also can't even quote you accurately because this is just off the dome so what um but it was basically the per game fantasy points anything right not really per game fantasy points for like all players ladenian tomlinson christian mccaffrey and then one of the players was jameer gibbs in games without david montgomery oh okay and he was lapping the field yeah ladenian tomlinson christian mccaffrey they had nothing on him so it is a really exciting prospect with this offense without david montgomery It's also worth saying, and I talked about it on the mock draft at the end last episode, Isaiah Pacheco is not good, but this offensive line is good.

1:12:06Jason Moore:If Gibbs goes down, someone will have a ton of opportunities to score touchdowns. David Montgomery is vacating 34 red zone carries and 14 inside the five. He's vacating 158 rushing attempts as well. You cannot give Gibbs all that the Lions did last year. The running game of the Lions cannot all go to Gibbs. He'll die. So there will be someone else of relevance and then certainly an important insurance back, which right now appears to be Pacheco. All right. So put the other three teams in order of the division, Jay. For me, it's going to go this one in what is maybe the most difficult division seems very clear cut to me.

1:12:56Jason Moore:It goes Lions, Packers, Bears, Vikings.

1:12:59Andy Holloway:That's how I have it too. Oh, all right. Clear to both of us. No, sorry. We can't argue about it. That's going to do it for today's show. The NFC South on Tuesday. Andy will be back. Reminder, if you are in New York and you see us, come check us out. Come say hello. But thank you for listening. I hope your lawn is finally manicured. Enjoy the weekend, everyone. Talk to you later. Goodbye.

1:13:29Jason Moore:thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com and follow us on twitter at the ff ballers

1:13:49Andy Holloway:On September 25th No one's coming for us It's just you and me boy 58 miles Part of the Beast is the must see adventure of the year

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