Fantasy Football - NFC South Breakdown + Stinky Treasures - Podcast for 7/19

8:28Mike Wright:of this i mean not the worst part let's be honest yeah the worst part is what happened a pretty bad part the worst part happened to like the people in the incident but the second worst part is that for the first time in the whole dang off season i draft rashi rice in a mock draft like a show ago and you guys are all like every kyle's going finally you're on board the fantasy reaper well i'm not on board anymore let me put it that way and this is going to throw into flux travis kelsey uh what patrick mahomes any hopes of like a real resurgent patrick mahomes year i'm not excited about that potential right now xavier worthy's draft spot is going to change Hollywood Browns, total targets.

9:10Mike Wright:You know, our projections for the Chiefs have been completely renovated.

9:13Jason Moore:Yeah, when I watched the Chiefs last year, especially take the first like six games, the first three with Rice, the next three without him, and you saw the same area of the field that Travis Kelsey is operating. Kelsey got off to a really slow start last year. They are vying for those same type of targets. So I think the biggest beneficiary here is Travis Kelsey. I expect him to get off to a strong start this season while Rushy Rice misses games.

9:39Mike Wright:Yeah, which makes sense, too, with just an older player. The late season or late career Larry Fitzgerald and Heinz Ward, they had such stronger front halves of the season. But now you have to think about, you know, you take the shot on Rushy Rice in a draft, and we'll get the amount of games suspended. But this is not an IR-eligible player. This is now going to be a player that, let's say it's six.

10:01Andy Holloway:Oh, man.

10:02Mike Wright:If it's six games, you're holding Rushy Rice on your bench for six games.

10:05Andy Holloway:I don't think so.

10:06Mike Wright:He was really, really good last year, but I want to stress it was three games, and it was three games where you had Pacheco injured, no Hollywood Brown, or Hollywood Brown, not Brown, Brown, and it was a little different, right? Like Xavier Worthy was a brand-new rookie who had barely had any snaps.

10:23Jason Moore:Put it this way. Before this news, when there was an assumption that he would be healthy and play the entire season, there was plenty of debate on whether he was a decent draft pick or not. so there it's not like this is justin jefferson missing four games or six games you're gonna have to hold on to someone and take up a bench spot and whatever draft capital to spend on him you know he's dropping down to the fourth now will he go later will he be six i don't know what it is yet but it's gonna be a very risky pick and you better believe you're right if you take him that

10:57Mike Wright:he's gonna be a superstar i'm gonna have to send somebody to law school here at the company seriously

11:03Jason Moore:can't be one of the deucers they'll never pass the bar

11:06Andy Holloway:I don't think we need them to pass the bar though oh really are they just auditing classes yeah they just take some courses if they pass the bar they're leaving us then they're going to go be lawyers we don't pay them anything

11:18Mike Wright:they could go under the bar yeah that's true especially Matt Jordan Addison guess what pled guilty to a lesser included vehicular offense We are children. We're children. I mean, the technical term, is this what you'd like me to do? No, I think, is this technical or is this slang?

11:41Jason Moore:This is technical. Okay. It's wet reckless. He pleaded guilty on a wet reckless charge.

11:50Andy Holloway:We find you guilty of wet reckless.

11:53Mike Wright:I'm seeing the official.

11:55Andy Holloway:Guilty as charged.

11:57Mike Wright:I'm seeing it as wet and reckless. Whoa. I don't know which one's worse. That one's worse. Wet and reckless. Wet and reckless. Your honor. Your honor. Often shortened to wet reckless is a type of plea bargain where a prosecutor in Arizona agrees to, or in whatever state, agrees to reduce a misdemeanor driving other influence to a ridiculous name.

12:19Jason Moore:Jordan Addison is wet and reckless. We should not be laughing.

12:22Mike Wright:No. No, no, no.

12:23Andy Holloway:This is a serious offense. Really bad.

12:26Mike Wright:Serious and reckless.

12:27Andy Holloway:And then we got to give names out like this, and it's just - Really throws us off. It is because it's objectively funny.

12:35Mike Wright:Yeah. So, look, he's going – TLDR, two to three games. Two to three games, Jordan Addison is likely to miss as a suspension for being wet and reckless.

12:44Andy Holloway:Danneville is reviewing it.

12:47Mike Wright:So, are we done with that?

12:49Jason Moore:Yeah, I could go all day. Oh, I am. So, let's just move on. I don't want to make light at something that is a very bad decision.

12:58Mike Wright:Okay, how about this? We've got Jefferson, nicknamed Jet. Jet and Reckless. Reckless is Addison. That's a combo. Jet and Reckless? Jet and Reckless? Mike is not in.

13:08Andy Holloway:Because I don't want to say the other one.

13:11Mike Wright:Okay. The Chargers officially placed Najee Harris on the NFI, the non-football injury list, to begin training camp.

13:20Jason Moore:Still waiting for that photo. I really want to see. You want to see his eye. I want to see his eye. Yeah. I think we all do. Yeah, I mean, there's no jokes here. I want to know that he's okay. Yeah, exactly, Mike.

13:33Mike Wright:Trey Harris has now agreed to terms. We'll sign his rookie contract. They're flowing in. All the second rounders are going to start signing now. And in conjunction with Trey Harris, rookie wide receiver for the Los Angeles Chargers, Mike Williams officially retired from the NFL after eight seasons. He's only 30 years old, was the seventh overall pick in 2017. I mean it's time I guess the injuries are just piling up for Mike Williams no player jumped higher and landed harder than Mike Williams throughout his entire career so many like sports center style catches from Mike Williams but he just couldn't stay healthy

14:15Jason Moore:he's a special guy there's not a lot of 6 '3 plus 210 pound wide receivers out there so I don't know where they're going to find a 6 '3", 210-pound receiver to replace him. Oh, wait, they just signed Trey Harrison?

14:30Mike Wright:Yeah, baby! Jason is the highest in the entire office on Trey Harris having him. In the world. He's at 59 in your wide receiver rankings right now.

14:41Jason Moore:Very bullish, obviously.

14:43Mike Wright:It could be Keenan Allen coming back to Los Angeles, too. There's some rumors about Keenan coming home.

14:49Jason Moore:That'd be fun. That would help. If Keenan came, though, that would be really hard, I think, more on Ladd. That would be bad for Ladd. Bad for Ladd. Make me sad. Yeah. That's pretty bad.

14:59Mike Wright:He's got a Saturday vibe here, guys. Look at that shirt Al's wearing. That's a Saturday shirt right there. Back to the main camp. Jason's on. My Henley. Jason's going to a couple of these. It's a leisure.

15:13Andy Holloway:Yeah. I'm relaxing today. I'll just say about the Chargers news, because everything else is speculation, but where as we stand right now, Quinton Johnston does need to be paid attention to. Yeah. Yes.

15:24Mike Wright:And that's our Quinton guy over there.

15:25Andy Holloway:The best part of Keenan Allen signing to the Chargers, should that happen, is I could never do that again.

15:32Mike Wright:No, Mike drafted him in the last mock draft and then reminded us again today, if you want to associate Quinton with a person here at the show, Mike's volunteering.

15:41Jason Moore:Someone's got to do it. If I – He was on pace for nine touchdowns last year, 9.1. Who was? Clinton Johnston over 100 targets nine touchdowns he you know it was very is that so he missed some

15:54Andy Holloway:games you're saying yes he did it was very sporadic but the the totality of the season

15:58Mike Wright:was better than you remember it would have been funny if he played a full 17 and you said he's on pace for what he got that's what I that's right that's why I wasn't sure I didn't remember

16:06Jason Moore:if he played a full 17 and I said he was on pace for 9.1 that'd be super weird he was at a 23 and

16:12Andy Holloway:half percent targets

16:14Mike Wright:route run which is very strong. I think you should be a my guy Mike. That's what I'm hearing.

16:19Jason Moore:I'll put him on the board for you. He should be ignored but I still don't think he is very good.

16:27Mike Wright:What's the in-between of ignored and paid attention to? Darnell Mooney. Okay.

16:33Andy Holloway:You went with a name? You went with a person?

16:36Mike Wright:Yeah. Alright. Anthony Richardson is believed to have been recovered and starting

16:42Jason Moore:to throw again okay dude that's all i every quarterback i draft i want them to be able to

16:47Andy Holloway:throw goodness gracious jason is just i'm here for one reason today he unbuttoned the shirt mike the point don't make me take it off the point of this blurb was we were on reports of we didn't know if richardson was going to be ready for training camp and if richardson's not there to start training camp that is a huge uh head start for daniel jones albert breer believes stefan diggs

17:09Mike Wright:is trending towards playing in week one this is that's very aggressive that's also very important yes i people need to understand how bad the rest of the depth chart is because stefan digs can soak up targets if you believe in drake may in any capacity you have to believe in stefan digs in some capacity that's my math equation in new england is it doesn't mean he's a super high draft pick it just means he's kind of a sneaky draft pick i it i i don't disagree it's just the

17:37Andy Holloway:injury like the historical injury of the acl research is it's a nine to 12 month recovery to return to a game the end of august will be nine months that's what i mean if it would be pretty aggressive it would it's not impossible we saw him running routes a while ago like two

17:54Jason Moore:months ago and he looked just like kayshawn booty who was running right next to him i i will be currently surprised i think that's very good kayshawn booty is a very young athletic wide receiver. And so to be at that stage, I'm a like I think right now, Stephon Diggs is a clear value in the draft. They also have a good opening schedule. We talked about that when we covered their division, but you're talking Raiders and Dolphins. Favored by three

18:19Mike Wright:in week one, aren't they?

18:20Jason Moore:They're playing the Raiders.

18:23Mike Wright:Diggs was in our values list. We pulled him when we got conflicting reports of his availability. But he's right on that edge. you know he's not the same stefan diggs you can't put that into your like a top 10 type of wide receiver but but he might not be drafted or very close to not drafted in a lot of leagues and big news get paid tj watt tj watt has become the highest non-paid quarterback in nfl history it's the second time that's happened for him three-year 123 million dollar extension 108

19:00Andy Holloway:and eight million guaranteed i like tj watt i like to imagine that draft year like the the first round's almost over and the stealer's like who who you want to take i just take jj's brother i mean tj watt and then you're like oh hey hey look the other watt is awesome yeah the the

19:21Mike Wright:you know the questions around him was like are you he's 30 and is he worth 108 million dollars Yeah, this is... I mean, he kind of took a little step back last year. Did he? Yeah, I mean, it's Saxman from 19 to 11. I mean, that's not like... 11's great, but... It's just giving that much money to his age. But he was 13, 14, 15, 22, 19, and then it's what you got to do. I mean, they're all in, so it's what he needed, and they gave it to him, and that's it for news. So we'll take a break, and we'll jump into our divisional breakdown.

20:04Jason Moore:let's get divisional

20:08Mike Wright:into the nfc nfc south we go yes and we will talk through tampa bay and atlanta and carolina new orleans look at the players rookies coaching changes how their offenses defenses have changed offensive lines and we'll give our take on how we think this division will play out which i think Again, this is one where you could definitely see it going some different ways, and we'll start with Tampa Bay. I mean, last year was the second year in a row that the NFC South title was not decided until the literal final week of the season. And it went to Tampa Bay, 10-7. Now, they were very good for fantasy, like the Baker story, Mike Evans, Godwin Welle was healthy, McMillan at times as a spot star, Kate Otten at times, and then Bucky Irving.

20:59Mike Wright:There were lots of fantasy storylines in Tampa Bay. You can go watch our Halloween show and see Jason dressed up as Laser Mayfield himself. This was a very fun... Go ahead. Busted! Oh, well, that's nothing. I gave you the chance, Jay. Laser. And now you're busted. What is happening? What did you drink with lunch?

21:22Jason Moore:Yeah, seriously. Honestly, I had an amino energy drink, and I'm feeling it.

21:27Mike Wright:I've got so much energy. Look, they were 10-7, but they were only 3-5 in one-score games. So they weren't one of those teams that kind of outkicked what it looked like they were supposed to do. They have hit the over on their Vegas win total in five of the last six years. And last year it was 7.5. This year it's 9.5. Okay. They have the 10th easiest strength of schedule, according to our friend of the show, Warren Sharp, and his breakdown of the season. they were number four in points per game number three in yards per game they were i mean baker was amazing they had a top five quarterback they had a top 15 running back in bucky with another top 24 in uh mr rashad white rashad white made it into the top 24 they had a top 12 wide receiver they had a top 12 tight end and only the 2012 patriots can match those numbers yeah rashad white kind of did yeah he feels like he didn't exist but he did a little bit and they're the first team in nfl history to complete 70 plus percent of their passes average five plus yards per catch this was an amazing amazing offense and that's a big win total nine and a half for them going into this year todd bowles i believe he got an extension this offseason and it's it's going to be interesting they added a very highly touted first round rookie wide receiver to the mix and then they paid chris godwin this offseason so in my opinion they're one of the more loaded offenses in football yes and so you know when you talk about the possible outcomes of the season biggest question maybe being can baker work his magic again with a third offensive coordinator in the last three years.

23:11Mike Wright:I mean, the Buccaneers are the example of why hiring a defensive head coach can be difficult. Yeah. Because you have a great... We all love Todd Bowles. We all think he's a really good head coach. He had a tough time in New York because it's the Jets. That's why. But offensive coordinator, it was Dan Kanellis. Then it was Liam Cohen. And now... The Grizzler. Josh Grizzard. Grizzard. Grizzard.

23:37Andy Holloway:We saw allegedly people are saying it, Grisard, but no. No, thank you. No, thank you. We deny your pronunciation.

23:46Mike Wright:Yeah, we have a show to run here. And how you were born, what you're named, really irrelevant to us.

23:51Andy Holloway:This team adding Egbuka is absurd.

23:56Mike Wright:I don't know if it – I think with the Godwin contract, it was even more –

24:00Andy Holloway:I don't mean absurd in like – It was more surprising. I'm like – as in like this trio of wide receivers. Riches? Yeah. Will Egbuka be a week one starter? It might take some time. I know McMillan had his end-of-season run, but ceiling-wise, McMillan is not Egbuka. And if you're seriously running out those three guys of Evans, Godwin, Egbuka, it will be very, very difficult to stop any sort of passing attack.

24:33Mike Wright:So, Baker, let's start there with, you know, you can see all the great things about how the offense performed you got to change it oc but you have all these weapons he had eight finishes inside the top five at the position he was amazing for fantasy players yeah he was 4540 so then then it's like you know i i've said it i've put it on record before i don't like i don't like looking at all of his history in averages to determine baker now in tampa bay because i think he's he is leveled up several levels and it's just different situations different weapons but obviously putting up what was the touchdown total 40 yeah putting up putting up 40 is just you know take baker out of the equation just look at averages 41 41 passing touchdowns oh my goodness i apologize 41 oh then i think you can get to 40 okay no but I mean it was 28 the year before in Tampa which was his career high before 41 it was his career high I know what you're saying but I think mid 30s is very

25:37Jason Moore:very like I'd bet on it mid 30 touchdown yes I'd bet on 35 because he's early 30s age wise I I need a button to hit I don't even know what button to hit so here's the thing you can say okay I don't I don't buy into the early Baker career stuff because he had different wide receivers, different poorly run organizations. That stuff is true. However, he played 89 games before this last year for a number of different teams and offenses and offensive coordinators. And through that time, his touchdown rate was 4.6%, which is basically just, don't just take his history, take the history of all quarterbacks.

26:20Jason Moore:That's basically what the NFL does. It's a very normal rate. Will he be above 4.6? Yeah, probably. I mean, he was 4.9 % the previous year with, you know, Evans and Godwin and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he jumped to 7.2 % last year. And it is not uncommon for this to happen for quarterbacks throughout a career to have a year with an outlier touchdown percentage. This is like the easiest regression to spot coming. And so I, You know, mid-30s, I'm fine with that. I think he can. 7.2 is extreme, for sure. Yes.

26:56Mike Wright:And 4.9 was a bit low for, I mean, he's had 5.6, 5.3. The truth of the matter is, I think what I'm pushing back against a little bit, and I'm doing this with a lot of these regression candidates, is Baker Mayfield, this was the storyline of last offseason. We did this already. We did it. We did the Baker Mayfield regression storyline all offseason. Different offensive coordinator. He was over 4 ,000 yards, and he'd never done that before. And we got the other side of the coin is all I'm saying. And so I think it's very reasonable. Like, I don't see anything on this offense. Great offensive line.

27:32Mike Wright:Great running game. Great passing game. Amazing weapons. Depth when weapons go down. Baker lost weapons last year and still put up those numbers, right? Godwin was gone in the middle of the season. So I think that Baker, you know, I don't think he finishes at quarterback three again. No. But I don't think he finishes at 10.

27:49Jason Moore:I think he finishes 10 or lower personally. And part of that is because we know the touchdowns will come down. He's not throwing 40 touchdowns this year. So take away five of them. That's still a lot of touchdowns. If he scores 35 passing touchdowns, then he'll be among the league leaders. But that's a big drop in fantasy points. But then it's not just that. It's his rushing. I mean, he had 378 rushing yards, almost like double his career high. His career high before that was 165, and it's not like the attempts changed. He had a year with 54 rushing attempts. He had a year, the year prior, with 62 rushing attempts, more than he had this last year.

28:28Jason Moore:But somehow he went from 163 rushing yards to 378. He did not get more athletic. He had a bunch of big runs. It was great, awesome. It was really fun. But it just feels like if I had to say, well, who is Baker? How does he run? What can he do on the ground? I'm definitely going to bet with what he's done throughout his career than last year's.

28:48Mike Wright:Well, the year before he was a quarterback 10 with all the lower numbers. So, I mean, I think that's why I have him between 10 and 3.

28:56Jason Moore:I think a round 10 is very fair. If he plays 17 games, he should be a quarterback 1. But, you know, right now he's being drafted.

29:05Mike Wright:Quarterback 7. Yeah. It's perfect.

29:08Andy Holloway:Yeah. I think it's an okay, fair shot. It's just where I would push on the regression is we – I won't argue that it has Baker seemingly really improved or you could even say just actually he's returning the promise of what he was, which was the number one overall pick. That's fair. And then he overcame the circumstances. So we're seeing the real Baker. But we see Hall of Fame quarterbacks have these types of seasons where they're throwing up in the 7th percentile per attempt for touchdown rate, and then they drop at least a full percentage. And these are guys who will go right into the Hall of Fame.

29:51Mike Wright:The best thing we can do, though, is approach it from the perspective on all these quarterbacks of what are your highest odds of getting success at the position. Yes. Because there's variance for everybody.

30:00Jason Moore:But not just highest odds of general success, but you have to add with that highest outcome of success. Can they be a league winner? Not just can they beat quarterbacks.

30:11Mike Wright:He was in A inconsistency, 64 % of the time above 17 points per game. Week in and week out, he was a valuable fantasy player, and I do believe that's what he will be again this year. Okay. But look, what that regression looks like, touchdown-wise, all we've said is what they've added this offseason. Yeah. You're taking a Baker Mayfield that didn't have Ibuka or Godwin.

30:32Jason Moore:Would you rather have Baker in the sixth or Jordan Love in the ninth?

30:36Mike Wright:I'll take Baker yeah I feel very very safe with Baker I think he's shown us the last two years and a great schedule great offensive line so I I feel very safe with Baker in the six I think it's perfect price QB seven and um and I'm not intimidated by offensive coordinator changes

30:53Jason Moore:yeah I'm I mean that that is normal for Baker we like Bucky but Bucky is the RB8 off the board

30:59Mike Wright:right now um we I feel like we could get stuck in Tampa Bay arguments for the rest of the show because, you know, I'm a big Bucky fan.

31:10Andy Holloway:I think we're all fans. His draft price is a little scary. Not that we don't have him ranked very close. Like a quick look, it seems like I have him at 9, Andy is at 9, Jason's at 11. So we're all just, as a group, a little bit behind consensus.

31:29Mike Wright:and he is he's in a tier right now on our udk where he shares the tier with chase brown josh jacobs kyron williams and jonathan taylor it feels but he's the highest most expensive yeah which is why it becomes a challenge for all of us to draft him that's a perfect snapshot of his situation yeah clip that clip there you go so that's good work uh rashad white pretty much

31:52Jason Moore:being ignored in drafts 10th round pick that you you shouldn't yeah in double digit rounds i mean I mean, Rashad White is not their future. He's probably going to be gone after this year.

32:03Andy Holloway:It's going to feel so gross to draft him.

32:05Jason Moore:But this is a guy who is absolutely involved, had over 200 opportunities last year. We brought it up. He was the running back 24. He's not great, but he is.

32:16Mike Wright:He's the kind of player that there's a dude in our league that just drafts the nastiest dudes in the late rounds. And they always provide value. And Rashad White fits right in there.

32:24Jason Moore:Yeah.

32:25Mike Wright:How do you see the wide receiver room panning out, Jason, with Mike Evans right now a late third, Godwin in the sixth, Egbuka and McMillan share an 11th round. You've got Kate Otten who did have a really necessary portion of the year.

32:43Andy Holloway:Yeah, he's only a Mr. Necessary though.

32:45Mike Wright:But how do you see the wideouts?

32:47Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, Chris Godwin was essentially the alpha before he went down to injury, but I've still got Mike Evans clearly ahead. I want more information on Chris Godwin coming back. ironically my my target share for both of those guys is identical i i for who for evans and godwin okay but the valuable targets if they're both going to get 130 targets they're going to be very different for chris godwin than for mike evans i'd rather have the the double digit touchdown upside of evans the downfield you know big explosive plays we have godwin he's been hurt

33:18Mike Wright:before and his return from injury was really depressing but then i feel like we're getting that scare washed away by the contract this offseason.

33:28Andy Holloway:And his ADP. His ADP, the risk is already in there. It's cheap. It's sixth round. In the sixth round. I struggle. Ooh, sixth round. So who are you taking, Baker or Godwin? I mean, I don't know. It's a trick question. Jameson Williams is in the sixth. Yeah, that is. I personally struggle with the Evans versus Godwin because it was not a they're going back and forth in those you know when Chris Godwin was doing what he was doing at the beginning of the year the first seven weeks Chris Godwin had put up you know he's averaging nine targets seven so seven receptions and 82 yards per week that is what Chris Godwin was averaging in that exact same time period uh I'll cut one game out because Mike Evans got hurt also you know in week seven but he was averaging four for 51 like this was not a we're we're one a one b it was the chris godwin show but if you just think about it i mean all

34:25Mike Wright:the years that godwin's been a part of tampa bay mike evans why just you were eight twelve ten eight

34:31Andy Holloway:sure it just it doesn't matter how it happens but it's a it's a very large gap and for a small

34:38Mike Wright:time period of their no no no not to their their adp oh yeah yeah i thought you were saying a large gap between their production when they were playing together i would both both of those

34:46Jason Moore:things but he mike if you had to bet your house uh-huh and everything you save for your children's future college this is on mike evans getting a thousand yards or not getting a thousand yards

34:59Andy Holloway:this season of course i'll take the thousand yards but is that like which the he he barely surpassed you're making me talk bad about mike evans right now and i don't appreciate that

35:12Jason Moore:my my point is you shouldn't he's been great this team manufactured him the thousand yards to keep that streak going if you remember that at the end of the final couple weeks they did he missed a handful of games and it seemed like he was not going to be able to get there and they're like i don't think i'm drafting godwin yeah are you i don't think i'm taking him in the sixth round

35:29Mike Wright:i'm fine with evans but you've got egg buka that represents a huge portion of the future and Godwin could start really slow and maybe not have – I mean, Liam Cohen's not there. Liam Cohen was the – the difference between Canales and Liam Cohen was that magic beginning for Godwin. So I don't know. That is very – Makes me nervous.

35:49Andy Holloway:And we have – like his particular injury, we have seen players recently poor, like performing poorly right when they came back from it, and we've seen players who get that same injury and they're just fine.

36:02Mike Wright:Do you care more about your family or Mike Evans? Oh, Mike Evans.

36:07Jason Moore:Yeah, makes sense.

36:08Mike Wright:They start against Atlanta in Atlanta, and they're favored in week one, and then at Houston, then the Jets, then Philadelphia. So it should be an interesting re-roll of this offense again. And the offensive line ranks sixth. They are going to be without Tristan Wirfs for a little while, right? They are. so that's worth mentioning Atlanta

36:35Jason Moore:I can't believe you let that one go the way that this this podcast is going on a Saturday

36:43Mike Wright:Jason is controlling the vibe of this podcast very carefully buttons if he could unbutton anymore he would

36:50Jason Moore:you're lucky I didn't wear a full button up shirt today I'm surprised he doesn't grab scissors

36:54Mike Wright:and start cutting that thing off Atlanta was 8-9 we're going to move on to Atlanta they were 7-6 in one score games they have not had a 500 or better season since 2017 and yet they are projected for seven and a half games so yeah they're not projected for i mean last year they were projected for nine and a half and the kurt cousins experiment well that that was a bad experiment it didn't work uh his mobility after the injury then he i mean he had the achilles recovery but then he had a shoulder injury and he played even worse after that in fact he started much better they were six and three to start the year then he collapsed was throwing interceptions all over the place passing yards went down it looked like he couldn't throw at all and there were there there have been some resurgent rumors by the way of cousins to cleveland yet again oh my gosh um which was my original prediction was but i had all but given up on it because they drafted 16 quarterbacks in the draft but you know michael pennix jr took over they averaged double the points per game when he was under center over the last three weeks they didn't win those games they were one and two but um and as a reminder because i know a lot

38:11Jason Moore:you know we're going to talk about those those three games with how it related to drake london and pennix and and bijon because that's the future but those three games were against three of the worst defenses in the league the Giants and the Panthers the the Washington Commanders were in

38:25Mike Wright:there they're you know average their strength of schedule according to Warren Sharp is the fourth easiest in football and yet just seven and a half wins in a softer division so that is at least a little bit of a a nod to all the doubts and questions that we're going to bring up here when talking about Atlanta which you know it begins with the quarterback this team didn't perform on offense the way they wanted to last year bottom third um zach robinson came over with a lot of fanfare from the mcveigh universe and kind of gets us a slight pass with just what happened with kirk cousins but um you know yeah i will judge him harshly after this season yeah

39:09Andy Holloway:and you're gonna have a top 10 quarterback pick you better put a show on yeah the pick was i mean

39:16Mike Wright:when the pick happened of michael pennix it was ridiculed everywhere but it seems like maybe i know we've talked about this i mean by it you can't like really fix a mistake with a mistake but but it wasn't an insurance policy that that they needed quickly they have a top 10 offensive line ranking on pff heading into the new year that's great for bijon yeah bijon is um he's a player that we're not going to have to we can't let jason talk about bijon anymore we don't have to discuss at length i mean he from week six on he scored 17 plus fantasy points in all but one game it was outrageous he was everything that you hoped he could be and he belongs at the tippy top of your draft if you want to take him one-on-one that's fine that's totally fine good offensive

40:05Jason Moore:line peak of his career for running backs he's a game script proof back if they get down they throw them the ball if they're up they run the clock out so you you love that one of the true workhorses an a in consistency there's literally nothing to criticize with with bijon when it

40:24Mike Wright:comes to pass catchers it's kind of like drake london and then what do you have like it is is kyle pitts even worth bringing up on a fancy football show anymore darnell mooney kind of slots in as what he is right like he's a wide receiver too that's probably better than his

40:40Andy Holloway:draft spot yeah he's in the 10th round wide receiver 49 he'll he'll outproduce that michael penix only completed 55 of his passes you know they've talked a lot about not changing him

40:54Mike Wright:if you've seen recent comments from the offensive staff it's like we like the things that make michael penix special which is taking chances dude airs it out airing it out so that's going to come with some good and bad also their defense is going to dictate a lot of things they were not a great defense um so you know where where are you from the fantasy perspective on this team like is drake london he's he's drafted so highly he's a top of the second round pick but i haven't taken him in a mock and i don't know if you can i mean can you talk me into why i need to be just ultra confident in drake london regardless of how much michael Penix Jr.

41:36Mike Wright:we've seen?

41:37Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, he is. The reason you should be ultra confident is, like you said, their defense is not good, and he has no other wide receivers to really truly compete with. Darnell Mooney's on the other side, great, but he proved that he could be kind of an alpha wide receiver. He was the wide receiver six last year in fantasy, and that was with the old busted version of Kirk Cousins. So let's say Michael Penix... He's pretty juiced from that Carolina a game in week 18 sure he had a an incredible 187 10 for 187 and two for 35 points that'll that'll jump you up a couple spots yeah but the counter argument to that is that was one of the michael pennix games so oh you're going oh okay so michael pennix is willing to just throw him the ball a ton um even before that you you're on target taking that crazy game out which is dumb to just take it take out his best game but without his best game he's still on a hundred target pace you know 1100 yards target or catch uh reception sorry 147 if you're saying he's 100 target pace you should not draft him so he's a young in his prime alpha wide receiver with no competition for targets and a bad defense like i i'm all about pretty potent kyle pitts his yards per route run

42:50Mike Wright:over the last four years have dropped every single year he he had 38 of his snaps in line three times his rate from 2023 he just it's like the air is let out of the balloon at this point

43:03Jason Moore:it's hard to talk about the oldest 24 year old on planet earth he's greg odin ah that's a good

43:10Andy Holloway:comp he's how it feels he like and like greg odin he's just he's on his way to being just a trivia

43:15Mike Wright:question like one of the biggest busts in a long time um is there any hope for him this season i mean you just literally talked about them having nobody but drake london there is always hope

43:24Jason Moore:i mean that's because he's 24 because that's how he gets yeah he's 24 he was the fourth pick in nfl draft like i got this candy bar athlete yeah um let me ask you this is he in a contract year i don't know is he i think so he is unfortunately yeah there you're all right So now that motivation is there.

43:50Mike Wright:This is a fool me quintuple times situation. Fool me four times. I tried to figure out what the phrase is. It's quintuple. We'll take a break. We'll talk Panthers. Oh, by the way, they start the season against Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, and Washington. Are you surprised that their win total is at 7.5? No. Would you have thought it would have been higher? No. Even in this division? No, I will say this. With that easy of a schedule?

44:15Jason Moore:When I first looked at the Falcons here, I saw their win total at 9.5, and I was blown away. But I was looking at last year's win total projections. Because you expected it lower. Yes, because I expected it.

44:25Mike Wright:They're not favored in a game until week eight.

44:27Andy Holloway:Yeah, that'll dictate some things.

44:30Mike Wright:See, that's why you need Cousins gone. I'm serious. You can't have them on that bench.

44:34Jason Moore:Yeah.

44:36Mike Wright:When they start losing games. Yeah, he's too experienced of a player. Look, if those numbers are accurate, if it was a lot of shoulder issue situation, I mean, weeks one through nine, they were playing well. They were scoring 25 points a game.

44:48Jason Moore:Didn't he have a game where he threw 500 yards and like five touchdowns? There was a primetime game that was awesome. Yeah, that overtime game he won.

44:56Mike Wright:So, like, you can't have him there if you want Michael Penix to be your future. I don't know if Kyle – Kyle, do you want Cousins going? Are you on the mic? I'm just sad for him. You're sad for Kirk? Just sad in general.

45:11Jason Moore:Just sad as a Falcons fan. 72 % completion percentage, four touchdowns, 509 passing yards, and that was against Tampa Bay.

45:21Mike Wright:Yeah, where they start the year. So we'll take a break. Be right back.

45:32Mike Wright:Well, I think a lot of people would have expected us to not be talking about Carolina yet because Carolina was one of the worst teams in football.

45:40Jason Moore:But they got to play in a division with the Saints.

45:42Mike Wright:But here they are. They're the third team we get to talk about. 5-12 Carolina. Last year, the win total, 5.5. So they were right on it.

45:52Andy Holloway:Did you see that point differential from last year?

45:55Mike Wright:What was it?

45:58Andy Holloway:Negative 193.

46:01Mike Wright:Here's their last seven years win total. Seven, five. This is how many they accomplished, not Vegas totals. Seven, five, five, five, seven, two, five.

46:10Jason Moore:so Kyle as a Falcons fan you got to feel much better yeah do you feel good now Kyle

46:16Mike Wright:it's still a terrible division yeah it is yeah they also allowed the most points of all time 534 it was a dream to play against the Carolina Panthers defense because they give up the most

46:27Jason Moore:points you talk about the defense that ranked uh 32nd in points allowed 32nd in yards 32nd in rushing yards 32nd in EPA and 32nd in EPA per rush I am yeah they are they are projected for one more win this year six and a half i am actually really excited for this team because

46:46Andy Holloway:this is the this is exactly not exactly let me let me phrase it uh better their defenses is gonna stink like maybe they're not dead last again historically though allowing the most points of all time but they will not be able to turn that thing around not to the not to an upper echelon defense for sure. Meanwhile, after Bryce Young came back from the benching, whatever happened, Bryce Young was so, so much better as a player and as a quarterback. From week 12 on, Carolina averaged 25 points per game. That's 12th in the NFL. Bryce was seventh in fantasy points per drop back. He was second in quarterback scrambles.

47:30Andy Holloway:He looked like a completely different person. and then their first pick is Ted Arroa McMillan, who you can't be Jamar Chase excited about McMillan, but I think that he'll be a true number one in the NFL, and that lets last year's first-run pick, Xavier Leggett, go be just a number two wide receiver. Which is really what he is. Yeah, which is really what he is, and the Canales offense is going to be able to run. No problem. So you give this team a better improving offense with a horrifically bad defense. You're saying a fantasy. This is the combination where you find some just stinky treasures for fantasy football.

48:15Andy Holloway:Some stinky treasures. Well, you got to wash them off, man.

48:17Jason Moore:I get it. I know what you're saying. It's not coming out pristine.

48:20Mike Wright:Name the treasure. Chuba is a treasure? Chuba is. He's a fourth round, late fourth, maybe early fifth because nobody wants a stink of Carolina.

48:31Andy Holloway:I like McMillan. I think that where he is going in drafts is a place that I'm happy to draft a top 10 NFL draft talent. And I think that Bryce Young really could surprise and not jump into a top five situation, but jump into a place where we're all making the jokes in week six. Like, oh, man, Bryce Young, he's still doing it. Can we count on him? And by the end of the year, we're like, look at Bryce Young.

48:58Mike Wright:Jason, we got to get Mike a third My Guy because we already know Bryce Young and Quentin Johnson are his first two.

49:03Jason Moore:So we'll find the third.

49:04Mike Wright:We'll find the third one soon. Probably from the next team. Doudle is on this team. Doudle's on this team. Yeah, you would never do two Panthers as a My Guy. I'm sorry. My mistake. I don't mind having optimism because I think this is an easy situation to root for. I love Dave Canales. I'd love to see Bryce Young kind of save his career, which he started to do.

49:24Andy Holloway:I'm saying often we'll have a team like this, and in the divisional breakdown, we'll be like, this team stinks. They're going to stink again. I think we got a chance here with Carolina.

49:37Mike Wright:Yeah, I'm having Kyle look up some numbers because I'm trying to find a really easy way to communicate the level of turnover that happens at the NFL level year over year and quantify it in a simple way. We're kind of looking into some ways to do that. But one of the stats that jumped out was like 23 % of NFL teams on a yearly basis improve their win total by three or more games. So a quarter of the league improves their win total by three or more games. That's an interesting reality in the NFL where you can't come in here and just say what was, will be. There's so much parity at the NFL.

50:12Jason Moore:Yeah, that's what I was going to say. Easily among all major sports has the most parity. you always see teams go from last place to first place in a division every single year. This is a very soft division. The Buccaneers look kind of entrenched at the top. They've been there for a while, and they clearly have the best roster. But the next three, they're all pretty soft.

50:34Andy Holloway:Even Leggett is just, he is completely abandoned.

50:39Mike Wright:Correct. Yeah, I mean, and look, I love Chuba. I really do. He defied the odds, right? You don't like running backs on teams that don't win games, and yet you like this running back on a team that doesn't win games. And then they went and gave him a contract, and then we know that Jonathan Brooks is gone for the year, and Chuba's workload is going to be there. Will Dowdle spell him? Yeah, but so did other players last year. I think the workload for him, I mean, this was the RB7 for a stretch from weeks 3 to 16 last year. He can handle a ton of opportunities. I think he passes the eye test when I watch him.

51:14Mike Wright:On the ground, he does.

51:15Andy Holloway:on the ground yeah his work in the receiving game leaves a lot to be desired and that would be the the if i had any hesitancy drafting chuba where he is going that would be it um i'm not gonna proclaim that rico doudle is just so much better at that part of the game than him but chuba was

51:36Mike Wright:quite bad uh at it this past year jason ceiling for tedaroa mcmillan fantasy finish wise if things go right.

51:42Jason Moore:Sealing, if everything goes right, and he's the alpha one, would be like wide receiver 15.

51:46Mike Wright:And he's at 34 in drafts

51:48Jason Moore:right now. I think the person that's going to play a spoiler for Tedderall McMillan as well as Xavier Legat. No. Yeah. Adam, wake up. No. Look, Adam Thielen was injured for part of the year. Bryce Young was benched for part of the year. When those two were back together on the field, I don't know if you guys even remember because, you know, it felt like the Panthers were irrelevant. You kind of moved on. but the last seven games they played together adam thielen was on pace for 97 receptions 1228 yards and 10 touchdowns he was averaging 13 and a half fantasy points per game i know i have him

52:23Andy Holloway:in dicey you want him no sure i i make me he will not do that anything literally anything you want

52:31Jason Moore:okay i don't care it will you you agree if i can make you an official offer you will you will

52:36Andy Holloway:accept it it can't involve any of your players okay deal all right the he was it like legette wasn't ready to be a number one i don't know that legette will ever be ready to be number one but i guess if anyone's going to mess it up for mcmillan it would be theelin but i don't think

52:54Mike Wright:theelin's going to mess it up for him at jacksonville in week one at arizona in week two then Atlanta, then New England. So that's the start. And we still have a team to talk about in this division. All right.

53:11Jason Moore:I expect you to be a man of your word, Andy. Did you send something? Yes, offer has been made.

53:15Mike Wright:Okay. Mike, introduce our next team while I go take a look at this sweet Adam Thielen offer. Okay.

53:20Jason Moore:Yep, be a man of your word. You agreed. If it did not include one of my players, you would accept the trade.

53:25Mike Wright:It's a dollar of fab.

53:29Jason Moore:I mean, in front of hundreds of thousands of people. I didn't think about the fab. I'll be honest with you. You agreed to a trade. Are you one of those guys that backs out of trades that you agreed to? Not with normal people, but with you, I think I might. Oh, my goodness. Wow. Get him, Foot Clan. You could have got him, Jay.

53:45Andy Holloway:You could have sent over.

53:46Mike Wright:I'll make you a counter. We'll get this done. Okay, it's the New Orleans Saints.

53:51Andy Holloway:Last year, they were 5-12. Last year, their projected win total was 7-1⁄2. And remember, those first two weeks with Derek Carr and Rasheed Shahid, and it was holy crap. Oh, it was so exciting. Look at what this team is doing.

54:06Mike Wright:Jason was going to have to shave his head.

54:08Andy Holloway:Yeah, we had the shave-o-head meter. We had a beat down of the Dallas Cowboys in week two, and then they lost seven straight games after that.

54:18Mike Wright:Yeah, it was a 5-12 season that just turned sour quickly, and now Derek Carr is gone. now what's incredible is um you know they had a seven and a half win total last year this year it's at five and a half and that's with the third easiest schedule on the books according to warren sharp it's a time of change for new orleans a time of they hope rebirth and rebuilding and a new quarterback and a new head coach kellen moore taking over who's a you know been very good on the offensive side something that they weren't last year but rebirth does not normally come alongside like brandon cooks and alvin camara yeah like

54:57Andy Holloway:aged veterans man when i was talking about the panthers of like we might come on here and just dunk on a team i mean it is hard to be optimistic he has up the offer to two fabs so far i doubled

55:08Jason Moore:my off i doubled an offer that you already said you would accept 20 28 third that's what i'm

55:13Mike Wright:looking for the last possible worst possible pick you can trade i just i know i i might need to start

55:19Jason Moore:him so i'm not you might want the fab to grab players and later in the year you're going to regret having not taken i'm not taking offseason fab though you only get you only have offseason fab right now oh i need in-season fab we'll talk about i mean i'm still a man of my word if they take it for one fab at any point in the future is that true i don't know i don't know if it's true

55:40Mike Wright:or not um well the saints the saints defense was not good they gave up the most rushing yards that they've ever given up since uh the year i was born 1984 so start your running backs against the saints was the story last year it's going to be a whole new scheme and there's going to be a whole lot of questions like chris olave has come up in so many mock drafts because he's one of the few players on the saints that you can talk about with any sort of potential fantasy outcome but it's going to become reliant on a new quarterback tyler shuck most likely rookie second round quarterback yeah uh just i mean fill it out doctor dr shuck what he went to school he better be a

56:21Jason Moore:doctor in six years of school oh six years of college is this a tommy boy joke basically yeah i mean if he's not a doctor or a lawyer he's gotta have a master's right i mean two years at

56:35Andy Holloway:oregon dr shuck it is tech dr shuck yeah dr shuck okay well the quarterback situation is it's either dr shuck or it's spencer rattler so it's dr shuck because we or jake i mean this like

56:51Jason Moore:there is so i'm gonna be honest i'll put myself out there it is very very rare for a a player to go the path of tyler shuck and succeed almost impossible i wanted path yeah exactly exactly Brandon Whedon tried to do it. That's like the best comp. We're talking about Brandon Whedon.

57:13Mike Wright:To be fair, not a lot of people try to do it.

57:14Jason Moore:That is true. You don't have a lot of them. Because when you're good, you come out of college and you get drafted by the NFL. You don't stay there forever. He was injured a lot. And I went into the scouting process, and I will admit, I don't believe I am the best scout of quarterbacks. He has a master's degree. Two of them. Thank goodness. Oh, no. Two regular degrees and a master's. Yeah, he just kept going. He's piling it up. He was really working on that backup plan. I wanted to really hate him. I like Tyler Shuck. I think the dude can play. Coming in with experience lately in the NFL has worked.

57:49Jason Moore:You know, you had a couple of these players, like Jaden Daniels, was one of those guys who, wow, he was in college forever. You know, he was throwing passes to Brandon Ayuk back at, you know, ASU, and it turns out a lot of the time to develop was good for him. And I think Tyler Shuck could surprise. So when we're talking about Chris Olave.

58:08Andy Holloway:What if I give you this statistic, though, that since 2014, we have 24 day two quarterbacks selected. And per our research, we have three of note for fantasy football. Jalen Hurts, obviously the smashing success. And that is Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo.

58:26Jason Moore:Yeah. No, I mean. The odds are not in his favor. There are so many things against. If you just look at like data points of success. And if we just want to be completely spreadsheet warriors, which a lot of times I'm happy to be just that, there's no chance. It's like a 90 % against Tyler Shuck working. But if Tyler Shuck is just good, if he's actually good, he was injured every single one of those years. There's a reason he never really got the opportunity to play a full season in college until year six. And then he was great.

59:00Mike Wright:If you're kind of good, this is the worst situation you could be in. bottom third offensive line lack of trustworthy you know pass catchers because i don't put a lobby in the trustworthy category right now and a running game that you really aren't sure what you're going to get out of it because you got a tough offensive line like i i just struggle to see how this season goes different than we expect do you so are you not feeling good about alvin camara rb 16 alvin camara has proven that he can kind of just catch a million as long as he's on the field which he will be he just accumulates fantasy points albeit slowly with small chunks and half a point per reception or whatever the case may be so i'm fine with kamara especially love him in full pprs fourth round pick and full ppr leagues i can deal with that and look if you have me bet on a wide receiver it's going to be olave but that doesn't mean that it's impossible for rashid jahid to have a better fantasy season than olave for olave to get knocked out due to injury like it's just we're at this point now with the lobby that you're like all the peripherals are not exciting for him and then you've got the injuries and so you've just the shine is off is it being discounted enough in the price i don't know i don't know if the wide receiver 26 off the board is enough of a discount to make me feel like like mike you almost took him in one round of our mock i did you waited till the next round to take him oh you remember that yeah you were going to think you thought about taking him you didn't take him he came back to you like i think that will be a lot a lot of drafts and if he if he slips was that the pick you regretted at

1:00:37Andy Holloway:the end it just because of my particular build of that deandre swift went a couple picks after and i was like oh man that this team really could have used there any chance juan johnson is a

1:00:47Mike Wright:sneaky player this year because they of the question i am so happy that you brought it up

1:00:52Andy Holloway:Is that your third my guy? And I didn't have to. There it is. There it is.

1:00:57Mike Wright:Jawan Johnson, Bryce Young, Quentin Johnston.

1:00:59Andy Holloway:What's your stats? Let's have a fun thing to talk about for the New Orleans Saints. Let's try. So Kellen Moore has taken over for this team. He is an offensive coach. Jawan Johnson, if you don't know who he is, he is the tight end for the New Orleans Saints who just signed a three-year,$30 million deal in the offseason. So he's not a nobody. He's also had some stints where he was a real startable fantasy tight end. But Kellen Moore is in. Kellen Moore's offense has often given us just goodness from the slot position. Now, it's an embarrassing name of riches when you list it off of like, hey, Devontae Smith moves into the slot.

1:01:41Andy Holloway:He's got five touchdowns in that area, those fourth most in the NFL from the slot. You had Keenan Allen average the most slot receptions per game. You had CeeDee Lamb lead the NFL in slot receiving yards. So obviously Juwan Johnson's not those guys. But he led the team in slot routes and slot receptions last year, and we have gone over who are the wide receivers here. Like Rasheed and Olave should be outside wide receivers. There's a chance that Juwan Johnson plays a lot in the slot.

1:02:09Mike Wright:Yeah, every bad team gets the football. You know? Like they get offensive possessions. and um you know i just threw it out there as like a deep sleeper yeah i you know i love me some juan johnson you've always believed uh they play arizona in week one likely with a rookie under center than san francisco seattle and buffalo seattle and buffalo on the road yeah that's a rough start man that's a rough rough start uh but we we we expect that from new orleans this year so here we are at the end of the breakdown show trying to predict the division in order um what do you got for me do you want me to go first i mean do you guys want to go

1:02:49Andy Holloway:i i can start it because i know what mine is i'm going tampa bay at the top i just think they are the best team then we're going to go carolina panthers second i'm going to put the falcons in

1:03:03Jason Moore:third and i will put the saints at the bottom yeah i i hate what i'm gonna say um because i I want something to be different, but it does, to me, feel really obvious what happened last year.

1:03:18Andy Holloway:He's going to crush it up and throw it up in the air

1:03:20Jason Moore:and just bathe in that chalk. Tampa Bay will finish first in this division. I think the next best team is the Falcons followed by...

1:03:30Mike Wright:Carolina and New Orleans.

1:03:32Jason Moore:Yes.

1:03:32Mike Wright:Yeah, I'm with you.

1:03:33Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean, it's as chalky as it gets, but sometimes there's a reason.

1:03:38Andy Holloway:I feel like of all the divisions we have talked about yet so far, though, this is the one we can come back and be like whoops definitely i mean look two straight years

1:03:47Mike Wright:two straight years they didn't settle it until the week 18 yeah and so and they have done this

1:03:52Andy Holloway:i know tampa base like since the brady trade like they've kind of figured some things out but before that like this division would just flip-flop who would win atlanta is the is the surprise division

1:04:02Mike Wright:winner for me i mean that that would be the one okay because i think they have enough personnel they did enough on the defensive side of the football if michael pinnick if pinnick's pinnick's is really good they got the the pieces b john's an elite player good offensive coordinator um that's the surprise division winner and i think that that could happen but you know it's hard not to like the stability of tampa so we've got upcoming nfc east and west shows another mock draft we got ice and fire coming up soon which means august is almost here we got ranking shows we got the ultimate draft kit at ultimate draft kit.com and the community at join the foot.com and we would love you to be part of that community here as we go into what?

1:04:40Mike Wright:Is this year? 11. It's year 11. Year 11 of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. So thank you for tuning in. We love you. Shout out to the deucers back there. I love one of you two. You guys can fight over it. Catch you next time. Goodbye.

1:04:59Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

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