Fantasy Football - NFC West Breakdown + Hype Train - Podcast for 7/24

28:40So, the Rams won the division with a negative 19-point differential, scoring-wise. You should be ashamed of yourself. That is the lowest ever for a division winner that had 10 wins. Their projected win total last year was 8.5. They won 10. They started 1-4. it seemed like it was going the wrong direction. They ended up 9-3. That is kind of the Matthew Stafford experience. When he gets cooking and he's got the receivers that are healthy and available, it's still just a difficult offense to stop. They were definitely a team people did not want to face in the playoffs. No, and they were 9-5-1 score games.

29:17This year, that win total has bumped up to 9-1. Middle of the pack schedule in terms of difficulty. And, you know, So never doubt Sean McVay. Never doubt that offense with Matthew Stafford. It is a team where that health of Stafford is as the team's going to go with Stafford. I know that Garoppolo is a better backup. He certainly is. But we would all be crying if we had Puka McCool or Devontae Adams or Kyron Williams. I'm not saying it's a big difference. So no more Cooper Cup. No more Demarcus Robinson. We add Devontae Adams, and we still got Kyron. We still got Puka. We got a second-round tight end rookie in Terrence Ferguson, which I'm a big fan of.

30:05Me too. They drafted a fourth-round running back as well. Last year's market share was dominated by the wide receiver position, number one in the league in terms of targets broken down more to the wide receiver than to the running back. Kyron did not catch a lot of passes. the running back room did not catch a lot of passes the tight ends didn't catch a lot of passes Higby had been hurt yeah they came back very late they brought Parkinson in but he you know the big money but he never turned into a pass catching threat for them uh Tyler Higby though it yeah I you you we've talked about this in the office guys I mean you know you you like Terrence Ferguson, the rookie.

30:47I'm like, Tyler Higbee is back, though. And then I went and looked. And the first two games are absolute nothingness. Tyler Higbee just came back from a devastating knee injury. But then the final week of the season, here he is, 5 for 46 with a score. Then you go look at the playoff run, 5 for 58, 7 for 54, and a score. It was like, should we be just like, should you throw Tyler Higby away for Terrence Ferguson? I would do that for the, it might be a boat argument, because Higby is on the last year of a deal as well. So I do think they're planning for the future. I would give it a shot, but it's not that Higby won't be relevant and definitely could be.

31:30I think there's two outcomes. Higby is a player that takes the majority of the snaps and is their tight end. And is irrelevant. And you don't want him for fantasy. so he's irrelevant or ferguson breaks out and it's possibly a little bit relevant that's exactly how i see it and those numbers about higby you know seven targets in the playoffs that that says to me that this is a team that really wanted a tight end but their tight end was injured all season and then it was like oh good we can go to this position and then they go into the draft and if you watch i was showing you the the draft day videos uh beat that before they drafted him like going into day to saying like this is their target this is the guy they don't want to miss that that McVay was talking about I I you know I have a plan for him like I he can see how he's going to get Ferguson involved so he's he's got draft capital and he has the athletic profile like he was the guy that you know when we were doing our our spreadsheet battling of looking at prospects just through actual data it's like he really did stand out so you know it could be a final year for Stafford and McVeigh.

32:35We never know. McVeigh's threatened to leave many times, and Stafford is the second-oldest starting quarterback in football. But while they're there, there's a lot of value to be had, and it starts with the wide receivers. Jason, tell me why Devontae Adams, in a two-year$46 million contract, is not going to play out like Allen Robinson once did going to the Rams. Yeah, well, I mean, obviously it's funny because that is always the fear now is like the scouting profile. Let me remember how big that contract was. It was pretty large. But I think why it's not going to work out that poorly is because of the film of the end of last year.

33:14Devontae Adams was crisp, was awesome, was working well, was good for fantasy. And at the same time, Cooper Cup disappeared. He vanished. He poofed. Every metric went down. His efficiency went down. His targets. And, you know, it was like the team went out and said, man, I really wish we had old Cooper Cup. Well, why don't we just basically trade Cooper Cup for Devontae Adams? It wasn't a trade like that, but they swapped in Devontae Adams. So I think the opportunity, the need for the role because of the beginning part of the year, Puka was great with Cooper Cup, who was great. So I think film of last year is what allows us to not just be afraid of Allen Robinson.

33:57Allen Robinson's deal was three years and$46 million. Why did you sign Adams to a$46 million contract? You should have changed that number. Devontae Adams, really solid production last year. Allen Robinson was coming off of 12 games played, 38 receptions for 410 yards. And the Rams were like, yeah. And they tricked us all. Just remember that the Rams did that. And other people are dumb too. I remember having that Chicago year of Allen Robinson and being like, I will never trust this man again. And the Rams eventually even beat me down. I'm like, okay. They keep saying he's good. It is a perfect example of this time of year's highlight videos from training camp because Alan Robinson had a, you know, he was all the rave of these one-on-ones and go up and grab that ball with one hand.

34:47The gap in draft costs between Puka Nakua, the 109, and Devontae Adams at 404. It's always interesting to look at the ride receiver one and one A, one B situations and what the gap is, whether it was Thielen and Diggs from years ago, Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Higgins and Chase, Waddle and Tyreek. I mean, we've had so many of these. That's a pretty big difference. Devontae Adams is, I think we all agree, going to be a huge red zone threat. If I had to bet which of those two guys scored more touchdowns this year, I probably put my money slightly on the Adams side. I would as well. So 109-404.

35:29Totally worth it. What you give up at 109, what you give up at 404. Is there a world where you probably don't want both of these guys? Not on the same team, but I'm fine taking either one. Both will be great. Both will be good. If Matthew Stafford is healthy, Puka is a great pick in the first round. He is not valued like some of these elite of the elites. He's a wide receiver of five off the board. yeah but i'm and i'm saying that's totally worth it he you know his he got injured last year wide receiver one andy a great question puka yeah of course okay okay yeah i mean oh yeah absolutely you got to start there with the easily okay easily this is a guy your wide receiver one of course yeah puka is your wide receiver one when he came back from injury because he started last season injured including a game where he he got banged up played 30 of the snaps he's on pace for 170 targets, 124 receptions, 1 ,600 yards.

36:24Now, the touchdowns have never been there for him, but that's the stat that you look at all the greats at the end of their career, and they, you know, some guys had usually four, five, six touchdowns, and then they've got a 13 season. His story is unfortunately not always projection-based. It's also injuries that people had to deal with last year, and he's been injured historically going back to college and high school, so that's part of the equation with him. I'm just saying like do you like the value on Adams enough in the fourth where that would you know do you go a Nico Collins at 109 if you were in that spot so you can so that you feel free that's the question is sure you don't box yourself into both Rams on the back of a back I think it's a it's a worthy question and in order to answer that what you really need to do is you need to say well who would you be taking instead of Puka which you you know Nico or Malik neighbors or someone would you rather have them and then but also who would you be taking instead of davante adams where he's going he's going around mike evans marvin harrison um yeah rushy rice which obviously he'll he'll we'll see he'll fall when the suspension comes in so you just say which definitely combination would you prefer a davante adams and malik neighbors or uh mike evans and puka or marvin i would i the first one you said you'd rather the davante adams nico yeah i think so okay but um but yeah it's Look, it'll be interesting to see.

37:48I think fantasy players would love to see Puka go out there and play a full season. I think they'd love to see what Stafford can do with these two weapons. You know, nobody ever talks about Stafford as a fantasy option, but he should be a streaming option if he has these players. He should, but, man, it's been. Kyron is the touchdown machine around the goal line for basically two years, and that's really sacrificed Stafford. He throws the yards, but the touchdowns. He can throw those yards. He picks them up off the ground and grabs them by a yard and chucks it. The example is, so you had a run here of a month where he's a quarterback, 6, 8, 22, 7.

38:27And then if you're like, okay, let's go, Matthew Stafford. Take me through the fantasy playoffs. 8.2 points, 6, 9.2 in full games played. That is something that can happen. And so he is, you better be streaming in the perfect situation. The big story with Kyron to me, it just comes down to lack of efficiency and effectiveness in the passing game and how that separates him tier-wise from some of the other guys. Yeah, that's fine. And explosive plays. Like, he's kind of like, you know, he's more like Derrick Henry than he has, you know, Gibbs and A-Chain. A-Chain, obviously. 182 yards on 34 catches.

39:07Yeah, P-U. and not a lot of explosive runs but a touchdown machine 12 in 2023 14 in 2024 ends as the rb6 in both of those years are you happy with karen as your running back one i like karen quite a bit i i mean this is this is going on my question am i happy with him as my rb1 ish because he's i mean he's on the fringe for me i yeah i i don't think i'm thrilled what running Is he being drafted as? Running back 11? I have him at 10 right now. I still like where he's being drafted, but I like when he's my running back too and I get another running back one. He does feel like just a really high upside RB2.

39:48Yeah. Like you don't necessarily win a week with Kyron very often, but he doesn't lose weeks for you. No, he's pretty darn consistent. I mean, our metrics, he's an A in consistency over his last 17 games. I think a little bit too much has been made of the lack of efficiency in breakaway runs last year. Like two years ago, he had it. And it's not like he's some old back that's just trending down. I think the truth is probably between those two seasons. And you know his utilization around the goal line is exceptional. I mean, literally a dominator. He led the NFL in red zone touches with 79. The percentage of teams rush attempts inside the red zone, 74%.

40:28Rushing touchdowns inside the five with 14. Like, that's their game plan, and it works. Nice opening season schedule. They do play at home against Houston in week one. Then they go to Tennessee. They've got to go travel to Philly in week three, but then back home against Indianapolis in week four. That seems like a 2-2, 3-1 type of start to me. Well, it would be better than last year. Favored by three in week one. All right, we've got to talk about Seattle. I don't know what to think about this team. That is very fair. They were 10-7. But a really strange 10-7. I'm sure you guys remember it being weird last year.

41:11Well, they started undefeated, I think, 3-0, 4-0. Here's their record. At home, this team was 3-6. Okay. On the road, they were 7-1. Like, that's weird. In the NFL, that's weird, man. Yeah. It's very weird. and they also no longer have their quarterback. I mean, this was an off-season overhaul. They've got their quarterback. They've got the guy they wanted. They also, I think the weirdest thing is to have a new offensive coordinator win 10 games and then be like, I don't want you. It didn't end well. They lost out on their playoff spot. And I don't agree with the statement that they got their quarterback.

41:57I think they got a quarterback that they didn't want, but they had to make, they had to sell that they wanted because they wanted Gino. They, they made offers to Gino Smith. Gino Smith did not want to stay. And then they came out and then they said, what's the best thing left. And let's make a good story around Sam Darnold. And that's not to say Sam Darnold can't have equal success in this offense. If not better, it's very possible. Darnold was impressive last year. However, I'm not sure this was the plan. I'm not sure they went into the offseason saying, let's get rid of Geno and get Sam Darnold.

42:31I completely agree. And, you know, Sam Darnold, this is going to be one of those situations where we find out what the truth is. Because last year Sam Darnold was a very good quarterback, but he was set up for success with a phenomenal head coach, an offensive-minded head coach, a good offensive line, the best wide receiver in the game. Then eventually you get Hawkins and you had Addison. It was really, really set up for success. Now he goes to one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and that's always been like Darnold's seeing ghosts. Yeah, Geno had 50 sacks. He was sacked 50 times. They're ranked 30th by PFF to go into the year to the offensive line point you made, and then you look at their offense, and you literally – you almost took out all the major pieces and got rid of them.

43:18Like other than JSN staying there, your pass catchers, Lockett, Metcalf, even Noah Fant who's now been released and then your quarterback in Geno Smith and Clint Kubiak's your offensive coordinator now so you've got that defensive minded head coach but you add Cooper Cup and MVS those are downgrades from DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett that combination you add Sam Darnold, debatable you draft a really good tight end in the second round in Arroyo out of Miami you draft Jalen Milrow who knows the the contract for Sam Darnold is is such that if it doesn't work out in a very tough division like I don't know where you guys have Seattle in this division I'll tell you at the end of the show and we'll we'll give you our rankings but if it doesn't work out in a tough division Milrow could be the future next year he could and he's I think he could work too like for a for a later drafted quarterback that's not usually the honestly even like a second round pick quarterback is just a death knell usually but I think Jalen Milrow is has it has an opportunity to be very good for both the NFL but also for fantasy because if he if he starts and is bad in the NFL he will still be good for fantasy he's a monster rushing mobile quarterback so for a team that that were better on defense and they were on offense last year that probably wants to win with defense going into this year is the running game going to be more of a priority This is why they got rid of Ryan Grubb.

44:51This is why they went from Grubb to Cubes. They went out and got Cubes. The old Grubb to Cubes. The QBAC running system that has proven so effective in the NFL. This is the year for Kenneth Walker. I think that this team wants the offense to run through Kenneth Walker. When he says the year, he means his last chance. Oh, absolutely. I mean, if Kenneth Walker plays 17 games, I think he'll be one of the best picks in fantasy football. He's the guy that I'm most confident about on this team. I didn't say it. But the first part of that is terrifying. Mike cannot victory lap a projection. No, I can just be excited that I'm not the only one.

45:39You're the only one, though, I think, that's willing to take that risk. I don't know that I'm picking Kenneth Walker because I don't know that he's going to be on the field, especially if they're saying... There have been a... I'll say this. Don't you balk-balk me into picking Kenneth Walker. Don't you do it. No, he's brock-brocking you into Brock Bowers. No, look. Kenneth Walker is one of those guys. The tantalizing per-play exciting letdowns. That's what he's been. Number one enforced missed tackle rate. His yards have to come after contact. Get to his efficiency. get to his you know that's what i'm saying there have been a lot of i'm not talking about kenneth walker specifically there have been a lot of players in this category where cj spiller or certain players that you watch on a per touch singular highlight like ken walker's highlights stand up against everybody in the league yeah they will whoop everybody but you also could draft him and he's the running back 38 or four or 28 like he's got a range of outcomes that is not the same as players draft in his category.

46:43I've seen some plays from Kenneth Walker that are superhuman, unbelievable runs for one yard. Like you, because the offensive line is so bad that he's like doing judo moves back behind the line, throwing guys off of him. Yeah, but it's not a good O-line. The O-line is still trash. I think Sam Darnold is going to struggle with it. And then if they're going to give him a ton of work, I do think that the scheme will be better. The offensive line scheme will be better. it'll be better for Kenneth Walker as well so there is there's some there's some good rays of sunshine for this running game because of a good defense and a desire to do it and a great scheme he better not be your RB1 I think so I think you he certainly can't be your RB1 because he's not reliable and he's being drafted as the running back 15 behind this offensive line and an offense that I don't think is going to be a top half offense.

47:39The scoring opportunities probably won't be a double-digit scoring guy, in which case I'm looking at what's his ceiling. Is he going to be better than running back 15 if he plays a whole season? Yeah. Yeah, he will. He will. I'll say this to the positive for Kenneth Walker. You have to find players like this that have warts but talent. Yeah. Those are the potential breakouts. Ignore my warts. Yeah. I mean, otherwise they're already drafted too high. Don't look at them. I mean, right? They're already drafted too high. It is the perfect Mike Wright type of pick. I love warts. No, no, no. I say that as a compliment.

48:17Oh, dang. You can ignore warts better than most. So here's what's funny is we talk. Your wife must be littered with warts. I look on the inside, man. That's where beauty is, you superficial freaks. Don't look on the outside. That's where all the bandages are. Actually, all of his injuries are internal as well. Oh, gosh. I think a lot of – I think almost all of us talk about, like, well, we're playing to win. You know, you're not playing for second place. He's a play-to-win pick. He is 100%. He is a I'm not scared. I want to get the guy that's going to win my league. He's a play to win or not play, and you lose.

48:50And I'm not sure that I actually follow that actual advice of I play for first or I don't give a crap. Because Ken Walker is a first or I don't give a crap. that are that type of pick. I'll take Ken Walker in the fifth round. I, Andy Holloway, who has never said a nice word, I will take him in the fifth. If he gets to the fifth round, he'll be on my team. I think it's worth it. I feel like, Mike, you are either in them running for a championship or destroyed. Oh, yeah, or your last place. Your last place. You are Ricky Bobby, man. You're first or last. Yeah. I mean, look, everybody plays differently.

49:28But if I'm running CMC and Ken Walker out as my one-two, I am. You are L-I-V-I-N, brother. I am freaking sending anonymous donations to those medical staffs. Yeah, Andy has too high of an anxiety to play that style. I don't want to double up, man. Jason, new running mates. Cooper Cup. You just talked about the offensive line. You talked about the running game. Got Sam Darnold at quarterback, but he has the only show in town. He's the second-round pick right now in fantasy. Wide receiver 12 off the board. I don't think that price here's how I feel about Jason you tell me your opinion on his draft cost I don't think it's an inappropriate cost I don't think wide receiver 12 at 211 is wrong but based on everything else that's ever been there I never take him you're saying the other players available I don't think it's inappropriate relative to the other wide outs I just don't ever take him there I kind of concur he was the wide receiver 10 last year in his sophomore season so he had that official breakout and it happened in the second half of last year where he dominated there is a quarterback change but also you lost dk mcf tyler lockett you go into this season like you went into last season jsn still being the wide receiver three in his sophomore year you're going into this training camp as he's alpha dog number one so you're getting a wide receiver one who was a top 10 wide receiver last year going into year three young studley you're drafting him as the wide receiver 12 that all sounds good on paper but I I I the as we as we go through this process I realize like I'm into Rams players and I'm I'm not into Seahawks players okay I think that this offense is going to take a major step back with the offensive line being bad Darnold there a changeover and a desire for more slow it down win with defense um play style so you know where JSN is being drafted i you know i would rather have t higgins who's going several spots behind them um but the other running backs josh jacobs is there jonathan i think that's what ends up happening is the running backs or trey mcbride the i've i've i'll bring it up again i've looked back historically on the the wideouts that break out in year two and it's it's not that they can't work it's just that historically it seems like we we steam them up a little bit too much I mean, like, he's being drafted as the wide receiver 12 with a lot of variables changing around him.

52:01So that part of the draft that kind of freaks me out. And then what does this team actually do? What is their plan of JSN was their slot guy? Like, he's an 80 % type of a slot player. Cooper Cup, that's where Cooper Cup had those incredible seasons. You know, 65%, that's how much Cooper Cup has generally been running in the slot. What do they do here when those two guys, I mean, these should be the two featured wide receivers, but they both kind of operate in the same area of the field. Yeah, that's a question. Like, what is this? I would assume you bring a Cooper Cup, you have some sort of plan for that, but it's still troubling to have to pay a wide receiver 12 price for that.

52:50I do think there's an opportunity. What if they try to put him outside? I think there's a chance for Arroyo or Barner to make an impact on this offense just because they're tight ends, one rookie, one second year. Yeah, they're tight ends just because of the kind of what seems to be isolation of Cooper Cup and JSN. Like you look at their depth chart, MBS, Torrey Horton, and Jake Bobo. It was almost a P90X. I almost threw a P90. Tony Horton. Tony Horton. Oh, I feel it's been so long. I'm trying to remember some of his what's some of his go-to phrases oh gosh I know them you got any back there Al were you ever a P90X bro oh well you can use the microphone though how about that oh your microphone broken it broke when I hit the panic alarm thank you Kyle Josh broke it do your best forget the rest thank you Kyle that's it that's it all right I think I ripped my pants yeah all right we're going to take a break we're going to come back and talk about the last two teams

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54:59All right, Arizona. Eight and nine last year. And that was above their win total. They were projected for seven last year. they're the only team over the last eight years to do all of the following win eight games lead their division in scoring differential so the cardinals had the highest scoring differential yet somehow finished third place that's the scoring differential got kind of bumped by a couple uh shellackings uh i believe the rams were one of the shellac yes the the the marvin Harrison game the the Marvin yeah singular uh so look they um they had a really difficult opening schedule last year so the truth of the Cardinals and what they are Marvin was a rookie uh their defense was kind of figuring things out they started six of their first seven games last year against playoff teams they were also three and five and one score games this year they they They have the 11th easiest schedule, and their win total is up at 8.5.

56:03So who was the team that was at 7.5 that I was shocked about on the last episode? Do you remember who that was? The Cowboys. So, yeah, their projected win total, 8.5. Yeah, it was the Cowboys at 7.5. And it was the Patriots that are up at 8.5 this year as well. Yeah, the Patriots are very high, yeah. The Cardinals are favored in five of their first six games going into the year, so that's going to be part of the picture. You always want to take players, like if it's a big overwhelming differential, like if you're splitting hairs on somebody from the Cardinals or somebody on the Browns and you look at those opening season schedules, I'd like them to be in plus matchups most of the time.

56:43So Judkins is kind of a question mark now, but maybe that question would have been Connor or Judkins at one point in time, and then you're looking at those schedules saying, wow, they get to go play New Orleans, then Carolina, then san francisco then seattle where they're favored and then tennessee and then indianapolis james connor is yet again super undervalued yeah he's entered the point where he will perennially and always be until he's done and he's the perfect type of player with that schedule i mean that you know it's not necessarily great for the passing game if you're up but the running game is great and then at his age it's like draft him get some juice out of it have him be great and then trade him for value he's just to look at the numbers I mean he was really really good last year he was the RB10 and he missed a game due to injury he's been he's been very good in Arizona and I know a couple years missing what four games or so but that's uh yeah that's that is part of the experience but i feel confident enough to find a replacement for a game here or there who was number one in force miss tackle rate was that that was that was ken bone walker and number two is james connor he if and if you're not okay if you're not watching cardinals games from last year or you weren't i should say i incredible work by you because it was it was frequently very painful to watch but the bright spot of i mean well trey mcbride of course but james connor he's just he's old and it doesn't make sense but he looks so good well he look at look at 100 yard games he had for arizona one two three four five six 100 yard games two straight thousand yard seasons knows for the end zone can catch the football 47 receptions for 400 plus yards you know i think it was uh williams was kyron was like 40 for 180 yards he so like overproduced a bit last year.

58:38Yeah, so it's just about the price for Conor being so discounted. He was the he's in the late fifth round. The RB20. Let's say, okay, I'm going to put you... I knew what you were going to do. You're at the 505. I know what you're going to do. You're at the 505 and Ken Walker is there, but so is James Conor. Oh, baby. I told you. So Walker value is there. You're taking James Conor a couple spots over ADP.

59:09and I guess they both if I want upside I'm going to take Kenneth Walker and if I want to know that I'm getting really reliable numbers every week I'm going to take James Conner and they can both get hurt so which do you want in a vacuum with no other context I'm really just trying to drag this out James Conner I do expect Trey Benson to get on the field a bit more this year. While we were all really disappointed. Better be better on the field when he gets out there. Well, the disappointment, I think, by the draft community and Dynasty Twitter, I think that our disappointment did not match what the actual Arizona Cardinals felt.

59:57I mean, he was 4.6 a carry. Let me give you two big questions for the Cardinals. Okay. Number one, will Kyler Murray be a locked-in every week fantasy starter? I think he will be, yeah. Okay, I'd probably lean on the yes side, which again, don't hear what us Phoenicians are not saying. That doesn't mean he's going to be the best quarterback, but he's proven that he can finish in the top 10 four times in six years, and I think there's a lot to like about the offense. Yeah, and also there were some quotes, and this is great because it wasn't coming from a coach or a beat reporter. This was coming from Kyler Murray's mouth when he was being interviewed talking about how he was watching Lamar Jackson and he realized how valuable the running of Lamar Jackson is for the running game.

1:00:50I mean, you saw what Derrick Henry did with stacked boxes because they had the threat of Lamar Jackson. And so he was talking about how he really needs to add the more to his running game and that is a beautiful thing that is how his fantasy goodness will happen and i agree this is not saying he's going to be a top five quarterback yeah i'll believe that one when i see it on the field yeah six years but i i don't think he's going to be all the way down in the streaming category okay so mike are you fine with him as an every week starter you get him late you you feel like you can lock him in i think so there's probably other guys I'd rather take a chance on but will this surprise you to know Jason that was the second highest rushing yardage total of Kyler Murray's career last year yeah that surprises me that does I think it surprised me when I realized they had gone eight and nine because I think we had been so there were so many games with the Cardinals what the storyline of the Cardinals for those that watched intently which is us and thankfully not you was that the Cardinals were Jekyll and hide there were games like the the rams game the bears game where they were a dominant football team that was you know blowing people out and then there were games where kyla murray would begin the game looking like a backup quarterback yeah like he's throwing with the wrong hand and he would end the game looking that way he never overcame anything he didn't really change so it made him very frustrating to deal with he is a very talented passer that gets hot and gets cold and that that's a complication so we you know right now he's the qb 10 off the board in the eighth round you don't have to pay a lot for him if you buy into the season that's fine do you buy are you do you like marv that's the last question is is do you buy into him as a value now when he sits in the late third early fourth wide receiver 17 outside that top 12 expectation for me I am in on that but I don't blame people for being frustrated I'm in on that I think I think that the biggest question like if we had one question that we could get the answer to for sure before the season that would tell us the fantasy football pecking order here is who is the number one target on this team it does Marvin Harrison Jr.

1:03:06become the number one target over Trey McBride or is marvin harrison jr the number two target behind trey mcbride that is that's real because if if if it's still mcbride as the one which last year i mean it was why like target wise trey mcbride is the number one wide receiver for this team at the tight end spot and marv trailed way behind him but he was a rookie does that flip it doesn't flip no i mean i think that would be a crazy expectation you still think that trey mcbride has more targets i care less about one two as much as the gap between one two it was extreme last year and marv needs to be a regular target monster in the in the passing game not this guy that sometimes works down the field to get trey mcbride open like i think mcbride will have more targets yeah and i but i think that marvin harrison can have can progress enough and he's put on a lot of weight and the cardinals don't have a lot of other weapons like they're they have high expectations i mean he had despite all the disappointment for fantasy he was one of six rookie wide receivers in the last decade to be up over 880 yards and eight touchdowns it just came too infrequently yeah it all happened against the rams so but i think he can definitely deliver on a wide receiver 17 draft value if it just goes up i am adp wise i think i'm pretty nervous about both marv and trey mcbride like trey mcbride is going to be a stud he's going to be a top three tight end i believe that at the end of the year the issue with him is that George Kittle is going in the fourth.

1:04:38I'd rather take George Kittle in the third. I think I'm with you now. I think I'm with you now on that. And take him and get just a different second-round pick. That's my issue with McBride. And Marv, it might work, but he feels scary. Last year we talked about the Rams. They had 70 % of their team's market share going to wideouts. The Cardinals were at 48%. which meant the running backs got 18 % where the Rams, I think we're at 10 and they're tight ends. We're at 34 % with Trey McBride. That's, I mean, 48 % is, is not going to be the number that this season ends up. And I think if McBride out targets him, but that number gets to 60%, we're going to be happy with Mark.

1:05:24Cause I think, I think he's one of the better bets at double digit touchdowns. I would agree with that. If any whiteout. Yep. And you're sitting there. I don't know where you stand on that. It's a really tough decision to know whether or not he's going to become a target monster or not. I mean, this is a guy who had only 116 targets last year, and he was of the wide receiver group. He was the alpha. He was drafted to be the one, and he was the one last year. Like, from week one, Arizona Cardinals knew he is our primary wide receiver, and he still only had 116 targets. So there's got to be some development there.

1:06:00I personally have him right above. I've got him in my top 15 wide receivers, so I'm fine taking the shot at him there. But it's scary to me. The big boys are, you know, Chase, 175. Neighbors at 170. Seedy last year, even with Dak out, 150. McBride was at 147. Yeah, we've got to get him at least in the 130s. So we've got to get, I mean, JSN, 137. You've got to get to 130, 140. The DJ Moore, oh my gosh, Wandale had 140 disgustingly invisible targets in New York. Line of scrimmage. Easy to target. Oh my gosh. That's a shocker. But you're training. If you had asked me how many targets he had, I would have guessed three.

1:06:43I almost brought back when we were doing our Scottie Fish draft. I didn't even want to say it. I'm like, the PPR value of Wandale. Terry McLaurin was at 117. Now you understand, people. We weren't trying to trash Terry McLaurin. he had the same target total as Marvin Harrison but he had 13 touchdowns which are not sticky so this is my contention is that I don't think where Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. are going I don't think both are going to be good picks but I do think one is so that's where I want to know I think I'm in on Marv so if you're in on Marv then I think Trey McBride has to come down if Marv's up at 140 targets McBride can come down that's totally fine because he's going to score more he can have the same season but he scores eight times and he has 128 targets.

1:07:28That's fine. All right. We got one more team. And we don't normally talk about them last, but we go in order of how they finished last year. Last place. Losers. Huh, Falcon? The 49ers. Oh, no 49ers here on today. What's that? Future Super Bowl winners. Did you just bled your own comment? Oh, man. And then ducked down and hopped behind your laptop? On video? Oh, keep it on this screen. Keep it here. Look at that face. Sit in your shame. That face is red. Sit in your shame. Oh, man. Well, 49er fans. That is a 49er face if I've ever seen one. 49er fans need not lean on that level of confidence or lack thereof.

1:08:08I think it's going to be.

1:08:13I think it's going to be. Not even a clear throat redo it. Just bet and hide. He noped out. Oh, man. Legendary. um they were six and eleven so that's why we're talking about them they had an eleven and a half point or eleven and a half uh win total last year and they they won six games it was it was rough they lost seven of their last eight uh if you look at the history with shanahan they've kind of been all or nothing they've had they're very mike right a 610 oh yeah this is the mike right team oh and it makes sense because cmc's on there um six and ten four and twelve six i like that guy i like and 11 so six wins or fewer four different times that is a and then suck team but then and then they had four times with 10 or more yeah 13 what kind of team is that twice that's like a i mean that's a super bowl contending team and right now they're i mean they're projected to they're the favorites 10 and a half win team they've got the easiest literally the easiest strength of schedule for 2025.

1:09:19Yeah, I mean, they started Seattle, New Orleans, Arizona, Jacksonville. But they've also lost. It's set up for them. They've lost half their team, it feels like. They've lost a lot of pieces. You know, on the offensive side, Debo has been a stalwart there. He's gone. He was 16 % of the targets. And no more Elijah Mitchell in the depth chart at running back. That's not that big of a deal. But they lost a lot of defensive starters. That's where, you know, maybe there's more fantasy goodness to be had than you would expect the the lack of a defense which has always been dominant for the 49ers or recently at least and the lack of a difficult schedule when I see those two things coming together I I shake my head and go dude Christian Christian McCaffrey's gonna be the number one that is I was gonna say like the amount of injuries they have at wide receiver right now it's like the universe is telling me in the face of Mike's great and grand number one overall prediction for McCaffrey it's just they're just keep taking away all the other pieces so that I have nowhere else to look but like Kittle who does get hurt a lot and McCaffrey who does get hurt a lot yeah I was telling Mike earlier today I think Kittle's the best yeah pick in the draft he's just I how is it not how is it not right now how is it not that's almost an that's like as of right now you you should pass on Bowers and you should pass on McBride I agree you should wait because because there's only one of him in the third round or the fourth round.

1:10:45Yeah, if other people have the same plan. Exactly. And so it's like if you pass on those two guys, you've got to kind of hold your breath and just hope that he falls to you. You know what I mean? It's just kind of out of your hands. Yeah, but I mean it's still a risk regardless of Kittle's presence. It's still a risk taking those tight ends that high. Yeah. So, I mean, it makes it really interesting even though those tight ends will be good. The 49ers are favored in 15 of 17 games. So they got a fourth-placed schedule. That gives them games against Chicago, the Giants, Carolina, Cleveland Browns, Indy, Tennessee, New Orleans, Jacksonville.

1:11:26Shani knows how to play the game, man. Oh, you're Mr. All or Nothing, yeah. Just saying, hey, guys, we can get a fourth-place schedule next year. It's not happening this year. They have the third highest team implied totals for 2025. So, you know, if you want to kind of understand the nuance to, you know, maybe Mike's slightly not typical view of CMC and putting him at number one, where I think he's, what's his ADP right now? RB8 or something? RB7 at the 206. I was thinking about McCaffrey of like what I am going to really enjoy this year is that it's not just people who draft Christian McCaffrey who are in on watching him every week.

1:12:12Every running back selected in front of Christian McCaffrey this year, you will be sitting and watching. If your guy gets hurt, you're going to lose your mind. Or if Christian McCaffrey doesn't get hurt, you're going to lose your mind. Because if McCaffrey's not hurt, he's outproducing your running back. And then the same thing, if you draft McCaffrey, everyone after you're going to be like, oh, I knew it. I knew he was going to get hurt. That's the presupposition, then. The presupposition is not... He's so fun this year. The presupposition is that McCaffrey, when healthy, produces, in your mind, more on a per-touch basis than any running back of football.

1:12:44Yes. And then gets more touches, too. If you presume that, if you lock that in and guarantee it, and how old is he? 28. 28. I'll verify that. So if you presume that, because I've seen the comments, dude. 29. I've seen the reactions. I've seen the comments. I've seen the vitriol and emotion that comes along with McCaffrey. Every other comment is, I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole. That's where Al is. Every time we bring him up, he's like, nope, he's going to get hurt. I won't draft him. He's discounted for McCaffrey, but he's not priced in a place where he's not your first-round pick. And because of that, you are making the decision to take him ahead of very, very big names.

1:13:29So that proposition you're talking about, right? Like you are – like it will suck if you take a safer presumed name in Jacobs and Jacobs plays 17 and McCaffrey plays 17. And McCaffrey will probably outpace Jacobs in that situation. He will 100%. Because of the pass catching. And people need to remember that about Christian McCaffrey. It's just – it is a gamble on health because it was so disruptive. It wasn't a midseason injury. It was a preseason. we thought he'd be back then he wasn't then it's a mid-season injury and you you burned every part of your season just willing to be wrong jason i got a question about which way does this shift the paradigm christian mccaffrey has been working out all offseason with bijon robinson yeah so the man of glass versus the guy who is oh my gosh that works so bad for bijon that's what i get out of that does it make you more worried for bison or more confident more confident the man of steel versus the man of glass oh confident tremendous work back there it's probably going to be the running back one and running back two at the end of the season i we i don't blame a single person in the world andy you're kind of not in on christian mccaffrey he's at eight for me yeah yeah right where he is in within the running back rankings i don't blame anyone the entire first round i mean he's in the second round so that means every single team and every single league on average bypasses Christian McCaffrey, right?

1:14:57That's just a fact. If he is in the second round and I'm picking, I mean, that is an auto selection for me. If I get a first round pick plus Christian McCaffrey, I'm not going to play that scared when, you know, Vegas is not scared of this team. The vacated targets, all the wide receiver question marks, We've seen the research in the past where vacated targets go not necessarily to the new incoming wide receivers, but when teams have a lot of turnover there, there's more passing to the running backs. I just feel like we could talk in circles over this situation. Absolutely. It's never going to come down to a metric I can give you.

1:15:42Like, it is what it is. No, it is. McCaffrey. Games played. Yeah, okay. That's the only metric that matters. Last year was an example. like we talked about saquon on the nfc show that if you go over 350 the last 10 running backs that go over 350 art or 350 opportunities they two of the 10 like like most of them get hurt like a lot of them have either been hurt or or lacked production to a great degree he was another one of those he was 355 opportunities at san francisco and 352 the year before like and he did that that's what happened in carolina he had 428 opportunities in 2019 out for the year right 355 out for the year how do you do when he got back well when he got back from injury he also missed the entire season again for carolina he got back from that oh when he missed the second time yeah i mean this is what i'm saying he's the running back one i'm just saying his legs are fresh that's that's all i'm saying yeah he's fresh legs i don't i don't if the injury was different than Achilles tendinitis, genuinely.

1:16:49Which, look, that is not something that you can just say you've healed the rest of your life, in my opinion. This is not an ACL repair that you go and you scan. He thought he was back last year. He thought he'd be back. That's part of the storyline. He believed something about his own body last year that was not true. And so for me, that's part of the equation is as you age, the math changes. His total volume, he may be 28, which is still old for a running back, 29 still old for a running back but his workloads for 400 plus 350 plus 350 plus plus the passing game it does the wear and tear adds up and i don't know how they're going to utilize him exactly i don't know if this easy schedule means that they'll try to do less i don't know but i think i'm comfortable drafting him at adp is all i'm saying and there's tremendous upside yeah the The final thing I'll say, because we're going wrong.

1:17:42And Jason's trying so hard to be fully riding your train now. This is your train, and he is now. And that's all. If you want on the train. You can ride my George Kittle train. I will ride your Christian McCaffrey train. We ride. If people want to ride. Come on, ride. The last thing I'll say is the thing about rankings is difficult because when you have them at one, if you have the first overall pick, I'm going to take McCaffrey. You're going to take him over Bijon and Barkley. I have McCaffrey ranked at number one. That's a really difficult decision to even make that happen. But that's where my projections landed him.

1:18:23Yeah, I mean, he's the single hardest player to predict that I think I've ever seen in fantasy because three out of the last five years you were devastated. And two of them you won the championship. And two of them you won the championship. I mean, what do you do with that? What do you do with three times you wanted to hire You want to die. Yeah. Better help. We've already talked about Kittle. The wide receiver room right now looks like Juwan Jennings has the inside track on being the most relevant fantasy wide receiver for maybe a while to start this season. Pearsall will be involved. Iyuk may not come back for a long time, may get traded.

1:18:57And Brock Purdy, you know, it's hard to look at Brock Purdy without Iyuk and without Debo, who he had for a long time, and feel like Purdy is this lock to be an every week starter. he's much more of a streamer for me i like everyone on this team and i don't like that well the the values are put it this way george kittle is not being drafted as the number one tight end chris mccaffrey is no longer even a first rounder the wide receiver one for this team right now is in double digit rounds no one is being seen as as a as a great prospect here from an average draft position standpoint and yet they have the third highest team implied totals meaning and that number means vegas is expecting them to score the third most amount of points in the nfl and that they'll figure it out yeah so when those two things are when those two things are both true which they are i'm in oh there'll be value wide receiver there will be yeah i said everyone i'm i mean the show we're out on brandon iuke yes so no that we need to be out of this episode we are jennings and ricky pierce all give me the division go ahead jay give me the division because I'm going to take an hour with this.

1:20:06Oh, man. I am going to go Rams, Niners, Cardinals, Seahawks.

1:20:16I'm going to go, whatever, I'm going to say it. Arizona, San Francisco, Rams, Seahawks. San Francisco, Rams, Cardinals, Seahawks. So we all have different projections there. So right now the odds have San Francisco slightly above the Rams. Cardinals and Seahawks are tied, projection-wise, for the division. And we'll see. Mailbag episode coming up. Unsolved Mysteries episode coming up. Another mock draft coming up. And five shows a week right around the corner. So there you go. Divisional breakdown episodes are over. We did it. We got through. Every team. We offended nearly every fan base, and we get to talk about some other stuff moving forward and a lot more camp highlights on the way.

1:21:05So that is all for today's show. Matt, do you have anything you want to add? My mic was turned off. Also, talk louder. Talk louder. Goodbye.

1:21:21Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

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