Fantasy Football - The 2025 “My Guys” Episode! - Podcast for 8/15

12:11Andy Holloway:Why are we choosing to put this in our show now? I didn't know who tweeted it. and I was before you jumped I'm like oh I'm going to guess this is Palisaro oh you're right yeah

12:21Mike Wright:he of course it is he's reporting that Beckham has drawn interest from several teams and plans Tom's on the take Tom's on the take Tom this is this is a scratch my back I'll scratch your sitch

12:30Jason Moore:it really is for all of his people the reason he gets some good scoops is because he's like yeah okay I'll put this out for you next week will be Beckham looks better than he's ever looked no one all pro from several teams is a flat-out lie like there's there is if odell beckham jr signs a contract i'll eat cold spaghettios or whatever you know what do you do you know spaghettios and cottage cheese oh that's disgusting during the show but it's not cold But the nice thing is I don't have to do that because no one's signing Odell Beckham Jr. Oh, I'm not going that far.

13:12Mike Wright:I think he probably finds a team, but I don't think a bunch of teams are interested, and I don't think it's going to be a good deal, and I don't think he's going to do anything. But you can eat your humble pie or whatever it is. SpaghettiOs. That was new.

13:23Jason Moore:He's like, please sign with the team. I'm really rude. I've been on a health kick. I haven't had SpaghettiOs in a while. I would really like Odell Beckham. No, come on. This isn't real.

13:32Mike Wright:Oh, okay.

13:34Andy Holloway:All right. What are you trying to do back there, Matt? I don't know what you're doing. I was going to hit the breaking news button, you buffoon. He's trying to. You're trying to give us fake information during a recording? We got a Slack update that he's coming to Baltimore,

13:47Mike Wright:but it was just him signing last year. Thanks for nothing, Matt. All right, that was News and Notes. Sponsored by Progressive Insurance. Quote today at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and third-party insurers. Not available in all states or situations. Coverage subject to policy terms, limits, and conditions. it is time for my guys

14:16Mike Wright:I was told we were redoing the video drop for my guys this year I canceled it

14:21Andy Holloway:we should have did you cancel it Mike? no that's retro now guys it's cool it's one of the worst things that I've ever seen

14:29Jason Moore:horrific That's just like this episode is too important. It's fantastic. It's a horror movie. Too big for that kind of, those lips. That is disgusting. That was our prime animator.

14:39Andy Holloway:We paid him zero dollars. I do have an update as I see one person did get my three and I haven't scoured Jason's entire one, but at least one person got Jason's. Oh, really? Yes. Oh, fantastic.

14:55Mike Wright:We will send you a swag pack. Do we, I mean, do you guys want to go first? Do you want me to go first? What do you want to do here? Are you eager? You're up, folks. I'm up. Let's get this one out of the way.

15:08Mike Wright:Jameson Williams. Jameson Williams is my my guy for 2025. I alluded to the fact very early in the offseason that if his draft cost does not rise significantly, that he was most likely going to be here. jameson williams is currently going in the late fifth round on sleeper the late seventh round on espn this was the wide receiver 19 last year he's being drafted at the wide receiver 27 my guy is always around uh you know the story of a my guy is draft cost upside potential last year over a thousand yards seven touchdowns he gets the end of rounds he gets the rushing opportunity. He was one of nine players in the last decade with a thousand plus receiving yards on fewer than a hundred targets.

16:00Mike Wright:But what I love about the off season buzz, the vibes, all of the conversations around their offense, he's taking those next steps. He is a true top 12 potential type of wide receiver with the physical gifts, skills, and abilities that he has. He is moved all over the field and yet is a full-time guy. He was the primary X receiver and two wide the z and three wide and then he he lined up in the slot in the slot 36 percent of the time he runs super high value routes it's the explosive play type of situation with him post go routes crossers he was you know on those routes in particular he's targeted more than chase more than jefferson and he's got those kind of skills and abilities he's the 80 yard touchdown guy he's the guy that can go out there and do major, major damage and play action.

16:51Mike Wright:And unlike previous off seasons, the drumbeat right now is so positive around Jamison Williams. Yes. And so a true breakout for him, it's very clear that you can go from wide receiver 19. You get those target totals up, you get more of those opportunities. He's a threat for double digit touchdowns. I think those are all within the, you know, the realm of outcomes. And you've got comments this off season. and I'll just give you some of that fluff because that's what my guys, we're going to bring some of that up. John Morton, I mean their offensive coordinator, talks about Jamison Williams. He has been unbelievable, unbelievable in the meetings, the attention to detail, excited to have him out there.

17:28Mike Wright:It's going to be a breakout year for him. Previous years it's like he's got a long way to go. He's got to figure a lot of things out. Dan Campbell was always equivocating. We always had doubts.

17:38Jason Moore:We used to make fun of the, you know, we talk about negative news is more important than positive news. this time of year, and we would always bring up the comments, like, this does not seem good for Jamison Williams, and it's completely 180 now.

17:52Mike Wright:Yeah, no, it's been very, very positive, and when you really look at this, like, you still haven't seen a full season out of him. That was a wide receiver 18 finish in half point in 15 games last year. He played 12 the year before. He played six as a rookie. You haven't gotten the whole picture of Jamison Williams yet. But I don't know if that's why he is discounted right now. I don't know if the perception of Jamison Williams is just wide receiver 2-3. Like, that's all you can think about. Or, like, it's going to be a very hit and miss. And I think you've got the opportunity this year to take it to the next level.

18:27Mike Wright:So, you know, to me, that makes him a my guy. He's in that perfect range. A couple years ago, Evans was going much later. Finally, you know, he was starting with Baker. You hadn't seen that together yet. I'm just very confident about Jamison Williams and the cost has not gone up

18:44Jason Moore:Alright, well, are you in Mike on Jamison Williams? No, I thought you were saying it might be up

18:49Andy Holloway:Yeah, I'm very in on Jamison Williams the breakout came at the right time in his career to keep his draft costs down had he done this a year ago I think we are not talking about him going anywhere close to where he is going in ADP so I there there's still I can still see a path where it doesn't work um because you know they the offense is there even um uh the other morning I was reading I think it was a quote from Amon Ron St. Brown saying like yeah the offense isn't firing like it had been in past training camps so like if we change it a little bit it could not work out but the but ADP wise for his upside it's

19:35Jason Moore:tremendous that that is the one thing like when when I look at Jamison Williams I don't know if I'm as bullish on the full breakout happening he certainly has the skill set to do it he has the offense to do it the path is there but when he's being drafted as the wide receiver 29 that it makes no sense to me like it really doesn't like he he finishes a top 20 wide receiver last year with missed games and now he's being drafted way below well and the biggest

20:01Mike Wright:challenge for me actually is how how much do i overspend on jamison williams oh we've seen that because we've done mock drafts the further you the answer's too much the first well there was one there was a third round one time but but the further you get in the draft the more you can make that choice right and the more that the adp is variable and somebody might take a shot and luckily when i do my real draft i won't be announcing all of my ambitions and picks in front of the yep entire staff like we did on the show yesterday but like i am definitely willing to go up around and take that shot because I want the potential of Jameson Williams.

20:32Jason Moore:All right, I'll go next. I'm going to go with the player that I think is potentially and probably the best single value in all of fantasy football. That's my man.

20:47Jason Moore:George Kittle. Yeah. Georgie Porgie, Puddin' and Pie, tight end San Francisco 49ers, maybe the best tight end in the league right now. George Kittle's the man. Okay, first of all, smelling salts, they're back, baby. They were outlawed for about a minute. George Kittle called up the office and said, I'm retiring there. You can have your smelling salts. Second, he just signed a four-year,$76 million extension. He's the highest paid tight end in the NFL. So if you're worried about the age, stop. That's dumb. The camp reports are glowing. Here's from ESPN's Nick Wagner. Kittle and Purdy have been in sync all camp and continue with the deep ball Tuesday.

21:28Jason Moore:Maybe it goes without saying, but we'll say it anyways. Kittle has had a tremendous camp. There are zero signs of a drop-off, and he looks every bit the guy who was the best all-around tight end in football in 2024.

21:39Mike Wright:I sent you that quote, and I know the first thing you thought when I sent you that quote was it was going to be something bad about George Kittle getting hurt. Because San Francisco has not avoided the injuries, but he is fine, he is well, and he'll benefit from all those injuries.

21:50Jason Moore:So here's the thing in 2025. Tight end strategy is very similar to how it's been pretty much the last decade. Either go early, early, early on a tight end stud or go late, late, late. Okay, so the earlies are Bowers, Trey McBride, and Kittle. Well, if you go early with Bowers, who I love, he's awesome, you do not get Drake London or Jonathan Taylor or Bucky Irving or Josh Jacobs. Those are really impactful fantasy assets. If you go early with Trey McBride, you get no Chase Brown. You get no T. Meat Higgins. You get no Kyron Williams. You're sacrificing real studs. Now, if you go early with Kittle, you're missing out on Brees Hall or Terry McLaurin or Alvin Kamara.

22:32Jason Moore:Oh, I want to miss out on Brees Hall. If I compare those options between, oh, I've got to take one of these three stud tight ends, I'm fine missing out on Brees Hall or Terry McLaurin or Alvin Kamara and getting Chase Brown and Drake London. That sounds like the path. Kittle is too cheap compared to the other elite options, in my opinion. Literally, in the UDK, he's in a tier of his own. He's not moved that much. When I put him on the board, he's been like an all-year my guy. Did he move? He was in the fifth. Okay. Now, if you look at his ADP, he's a late third round, sometimes fourth round pick.

23:10Jason Moore:But he's great. Here is, I think, the most telling stat. Because you say, well, okay, you sacrifice less to get Kittle than the other two guys, but can he be as good as those other two guys? He's older. Those other two guys are alphas. Over the last three seasons, we have, you know, a lot of times we're like, oh, look at this eight-game sample. Look at this six-game, you know, extrapolated to a 17-game pace. We have 38 games in the last three seasons where Brock Purdy has played with George Kittle in full games. eight without 38 together in 38 games he averages 12.67 half ppr points now if you don't know how that is like what how good is that last year last year the number one tight end did not score 12.67 fantasy points he scored 12.2 that was brock bowers the year prior the number number one good it's number one good the year prior uh sam laporta scored 11.5 fantasy points per game in 38 games together yeah and so what's crazy is it used to be george kittle this amazing yardage guy such a great yards after catch not not a red zone guy not a touchdown guy but that is completely more into a red zone monster i mean he's targeted 33 of his routes inside the 20 that's number one for all tight ends 33 sir sir sir have some respect there is a draft to chase brown again there is a sanctity of numbers yeah sorry and singing it's one of those days but he has 18 tomorrow it's 44 yes what are we up to yeah for you yeah probably um 18 red zone receptions that was fourth among all pass catchers and if you just look at the situations final thing I'll say here between the top three which I love grabbing one of the top three and Kittle's the one I prefer Bowers last year dealt with no one else to target you had jacoby myers i mean the fourth highest target last year on the running game yeah no running game in las vegas well and no one to throw the ball to but the fourth highest target on the raiders last year was alexander madison like nice yeah trey mcbride and and obviously this year they spent their second round pick and their fourth round pick on jack bash and uh deontay thornton so they've got other people to target to mcbride last year was the clear number one target way more targeted than marvin harrison as a cardinals fan i would assume we all hope that marvin harrison's the number one target in this offense like he develops into the number one not that that'll make mcbride bad but like he should be he's the number four pick overall with kittle he's got to deal with debo sam oh no no debo's gone okay but brandon's there brandon iuke oh wait no he's injured pop pop pop that's right i mean we we do love jennings oh wait no jennings is currently injured okay but pearsall just back from injury maybe year two is better i mean jacob cowing is there no he's injured jordan walkins is there he's injured demarcus robinson he's suspended like george kittle is so needed he is a value he is a stud don't overthink it draft george kittle yeah right now

26:14Mike Wright:as of today bowers 204 mcbride 302 kittle 402 yeah the the you get the best player is kittle and you don't sacrifice those upper echelon talents. It makes sense. All right, we'll take a break. We'll come back with Mike's first My Guy.

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28:20Mike Wright:All right, Mike, what do you got for us? It's 2025. It's not going to be Kelsey, I guess.

28:25Andy Holloway:No, it will not be Travis Kelsey for me, but trying to figure out what order I wanted to go in, but Jason kept saying this guy's name, so we'll start there.

28:38Andy Holloway:Chase Brown. Yeah. Oh, man. I would draft him in any draft. Chase Brown of the Cincinnati Bengals. I am madly in love with the situation. And he, I mean, he has consistently been in the third round. He currently still is there on Sleeper, Yahoo, ESPN. He's looking like a mega value almost going into the fourth round. But here is my case for Chase Brown. last year you know the the Bengals the situation we know it's good for running backs we just we're not sure who it's going to be the team started off with Zach Moss and it wasn't working that great and then Zach Moss gets injured Chase Brown takes the job and becomes an absolute fantasy superstar winning people leagues he finishes the RB 11 but from week nine on he was the running back five in fantasy.

29:31Andy Holloway:In the final eight-game run, he was on pace for 414 total opportunities. He was a true workhorse, and not just on the ground, as a receiver, 54 for 360 yards and four receiving touchdowns. That run I was talking about, week nine on, the most routes among all running backs, the second most receptions, the third most running back yards in that time. and when they get in close to the goal line, the Bengals throw. They're like, hey, Joe Burrows is the captain of this team. Let's open it up and let's let Burrow keep throwing. So they end up throwing the ball to everybody, including Chase Brown. Checking out offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher earlier this summer.

30:21Andy Holloway:Chase Brown is going to, by the end of the season, be a household name. He is everything Austin Eckler was. You all know who he is, talking about Austin Eckler. And honestly, to throw out the Austin Eckler comp is perfection. Chase Brown was a later, Chase Brown was a day three guy. Eckler was undrafted, but essentially a player who had to truly work his way up and become the focal point of the running back position for a team. And if you're out there saying, well, it's just, it's a one-year thing here for Chase Brown. and I'm saying absolutely it is not going to be that the the depth chart you know the yeah they took Taj Brooks in the third round and they got Samajay Piran yeah of course Piran's gonna get some veteran snaps the third day not the third round or yes did I say third round yeah Taj Brooks was a day three pick Samajay Piran will he'll be in there but he was in there when Joe Mixon was

31:16Mike Wright:there it's difficult and one of the reasons why I think all of us are very enthusiastic about Chase brown and have been it's really hard to make the case of how it goes poorly for him this season that's that's one of the things like there's not a really good you know nothing in the offseason nothing in the training camp nothing in the draft room nothing in the depth chart nothing in the offense it's all positive yes it's just for fantasy players not quite the pedigree or years correct history to drive him up in to a place where like eventually look eckler was very similar yeah Eckler did not get anointed a top five draft pick to start you know it was a committee year with Melvin Gordon and then it became oh he can do more and then it's like oh do I trust do I trust just the passing down back with Eckler and like right it took a lot of uh level ups yes and

32:05Andy Holloway:it did and so we can look at you know it's not apples to apples of course because these guys came from all different places in terms of draft pedigree but it's looking at running backs over the last decade who hit 15 or more PPR points per game in year two, like Chase Brown did. The list is incredible. It's 18 running backs in the sample, and 12 of them maintained the 15 or more points per game. So it's just like we're talking McCaffrey, Zeke, Melvin Gordon, Kamara, chubb kyron uh james connor joe mixon you know johnny taylor it's just it is a a list of hits and then there's just a there's a couple misses in here trary ctn but the point is historically this profile especially pass catchers it's turned into fantasy success and there there is the downside is not in the ADP.

33:08Andy Holloway:He's not going in the second round, which I'm okay taking him in the second round. I would be perfectly happy starting with a wide receiver and Chase Brown is my RB1. That's where my confidence is. I would totally take him in the second round.

33:20Jason Moore:I would totally be willing. We saw it already. We've seen the evidence. We lived it last year when he was the running back five once he got the job. I remember watching film as the breeze hall manager and being so upset we're we're sitting watching uh games on one sunday and every time chase brown touched the ball it's like this because at that point it was early on it was like chase brown's a schlub chase brown is a backup thrust into the starting role and then i was like every time chase brown touches the ball he looks special when breeze hall touches the ball he doesn't and then it turned out i think chase brown's special like he's better pretty good

33:57Andy Holloway:Chase Brown, in terms of the explosive athletic metric, he's a 96th percentile guy. This is a true athlete who he fell in the draft, and it took him some time to establish, and he has established.

34:13Mike Wright:All right, so Jamison Williams, George Kittle, Chase Brown, the first three my guys. My second my guy.

34:24Mike Wright:Amarion Hampton. All right, it is time for the rookie to take over.

34:32Andy Holloway:Talent, opportunity, the landing spot, the draft capital. I can't believe how it is just shaken out for him with the Najee stuff.

34:40Mike Wright:I mean, this was a player that we did not know exactly where he'd go in the draft. On our film review of Collegiate Running Backs, he was Jason and I's number one talent to me.

34:51Jason Moore:Well, number two. Ashen Jensen doesn't count as a rookie. Golly, I always forget Ashen Jensen. He's deleted out of rookies, but yes. He's just like, yes, he got deleted. Of the rest, he was by far both of our favorites.

35:00Mike Wright:You got it. And to me, when you looked at the college film, this was, you know, some college running backs, they've got a ways to go to get to that NFL level of consistency. To me, that's what you saw in film. True three down back, great pass protector. And the word that kept coming to mind when I watched film on him from the college performances, smooth. He's just a smooth runner. He's smooth. It reminded me a little bit of the way that Arian Foster, it was very smooth in terms of reading blocks. Not herky-jerky. Making the right decisions. No Pacheco in him. No. No Pacheco. No Kenneth Walker.

35:40Mike Wright:Ground give me power. But he's a tackle breaker. He's in the 100th percentile in yards after contact among all running back prospects. That's called the best of the best. We haven't heard 100th before. I've never heard that. Honestly, saying it out loud made me feel like I was lying.

36:00Andy Holloway:So you could just say, like, you're the best. Yeah, that's another one. I think that's what I could have said. That's how we usually say it.

36:06Jason Moore:We've got to start using that more. Anytime someone is leading in anything, he's 100th percentile in yards so far this year.

36:13Mike Wright:Yeah, it's correct. I mean, he's in the 100th percentile. Technically, yards after contact among the RB prospects. He's one out of all. He's one out of all. Look, the. I like that so much. The draft cost is inevitably rising. Najee Harris, it's been slow going, getting back from the injury, and we don't know if he's there week one. We don't know if he's there week three. Regardless, you're not keeping Amari and Hampton off the field. This is going to be one of the stalwarts of your fantasy football championship run. He is one of only four ACC players in history with 1 ,500-plus rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in back-to-back collegiate seasons.

36:54Lamar Jackson, Dalvin Cook, Lamar Ian Hampton, and Travis Etienne.

36:59Mike Wright:Those are the only four to ever do it. So, yes, the cost is rising, but I don't care. You've got to get them on your team, and it's not the cost. It's never going to rise like Gentry. I was going to say, look at the contrast from Gentry to Hampton. And you're telling me that it's a guarantee that Gentry has a better season? He does not check every box that we talked about the other day. Hampton does. Hampton does. in terms of offensive line, winning team, workload. I do not have fear of Najee Harris. He can be a compliment.

37:28Jason Moore:Do you want to know what it reminds me of so much? I think when I say this, everyone will be like, oh my gosh, it's totally the same thing. I don't know about that. Well, we'll see. Here's what I'm going to say. Omari and Hampton is to Ashton Gentry what Malik Nabors was to Marvin Harrison Jr. This was the clear, awesome, great prospect. I'll allow it. He is a clear great prospect. Everyone knew Malik Nabors was the dude, but he wasn't Marvin Harrison Jr. He wasn't the generational prospect.

38:00Mike Wright:Or what Brian Thomas was to Malik Nabors.

38:03Jason Moore:But it still cost a lot to get Malik Nabors, but not nearly as much as it cost to get Marvin Harrison. And to me, he's the right one to target.

38:14Mike Wright:And Khalil Mack, this is a good quote because it's not just offensive coordinator. I can give you some Greg Roman quotes about how much they think of Amari and Hampton, and you know it by what they did in the draft. That was a shocker. They spent it on Amari and Hampton. They could have taken Travion, Mike's favorite guy. But Khalil Mack. No one's perfect. Right. No, you make mistakes. But no, Khalil Mack, on playing against Amari and Hampton in practice, I don't want to say how impressed, how he's impressed me, but I can tell you, if you play football, then you know it's going to be fun to watch him play.

38:46Mike Wright:and they talk about how good he is at finding like the hardest thing for a rookie running back is to take what's given to you a lot of them want to make the big plays that they made their entire life in high school and in college and in you know reggie bush was kind of um a victim of this when he came to the nfl he was great in the passing game but in the running game he was so used to hitting home runs for the last 20 years of his life right omarion hampton is a pros pro at running back he is a guarantee to give you like his his floor is so high but his ceiling is so high and it kind of goes with the mystery bag tip from yesterday it's like you get this rookie that really could be in the ashton genti category but without the ashton genti price so for me

39:25Andy Holloway:my second my guy amari and hampton nice the i'm i'm in you know we've uh been kind of bringing this up the last couple weeks of like we're we're at the point where you just have to push all your chips in on on Hampton the ADP is that of like the community hasn't so I think this is a like an area of the draft that you can exploit and get an get an edge and it's like right now he's still fourth fifth round yeah he might jump into the third yeah and you know what that is okay yeah it's perfect like you need to readjust how you if you've been with us the whole offseason you have to readjust how you're thinking about Hampton yes he's the weak one starter it's no longer how many weeks does it take until he takes over he takes over now and nagy will be the backup for the season jk dobbins had nearly 200 attempts and over 900 yards and he missed four games and he has he wasn't and he has one strong leg right right yeah as far as i know hampton has at least

40:25Jason Moore:two you know i i've seen both legs they're very good jk dobbins has like a stick leg and a and a leg omarion hampton yeah he's got them quads yeah yeah uh jason you've got more my guys to share i sure do and i'm very excited about this next one uh let's kick it off with

40:47Jason Moore:george pickens yeah yeah baby george i had to pry george pickens from mike's cold dead hands we did a jersey swap we did a jersey swap situation um he's been on the my guy board

41:01Mike Wright:for months.

41:02Jason Moore:Let's put it that way. It was going to be Mike's or mine. I get him. George Pickens is a... I win! George Pickens is a wide receiver value that I think is completely mispriced. The talent, the perfect marriage of his skill set with the team needs and Dak Prescott's skill set is going to surprise people. If you've been watching any of the camp videos, there's non-stop. Just go to X and search George Pickens. You search any player and you're going to see a touchdown from camp. But if you search George Pickens, you're going to see 12 touchdowns from camp. And they're all different videos. He is all over the place.

41:42Jason Moore:He is a deep threat that matches Dak Prescott. And what are you going to do as a defense? Are you going to really focus on George Pickens? No, you're not going to focus. That's like, are you going to focus on T. Higgins if you're playing against the Bengals?

41:54Mike Wright:You don't have the option.

41:55Jason Moore:You don't have the option because there's got Jamar Chase over there. T. Higgins out there doing his thing in one-on-one coverage against your second best at best defender, if not your third best. And that's what is going to happen for George Pickens, except George Pickens is going in the sixth round.

42:09Mike Wright:The hardest thing about George Pickens, the sixth round cost is very explainable. It's because it's three consecutive years of high expectations and not quite delivering. Yes. Like the talent of George Pickens has never been questioned.

42:22Jason Moore:The output has always been like, what's going on? Yep. And then you've got Steelers leaving the Steelers. When wide receivers leave the Steelers, they go to die. There's that argument. But that's really not fair because if you go on a case-by-case – like Antonio Brown was still good when he left. He just ended up taking his shirt off and leaving in the middle of the season.

42:44Mike Wright:With Pickens, it does feel like you stole him from Mike, but did you get a lit stick of dynamite?

42:50Jason Moore:I sure did, and I'm going to toss it right over there against my opponent. it. Yeah, there you go. And it's going to go blah, blah. All right. Yeah. You're Najee Harris. Okay, so... Oh! Oh, no! You can't stop me. I'll say what I want. Oh, no. Here's the thing. What you were just saying, the story with George Pickens has always been potential, right? Potential.

43:15Jason Moore:Look, I'm just... I'm just... I'm opening eyes here.

43:18Andy Holloway:It's my guys. What are you going to do?

43:20Jason Moore:You can't stop us. All right. The potential for George Pickens, he is a contested catch, awesome deep threat. Look, in NFL history, there's only two wide receivers who, before turning 24, had 2 ,800 receiving yards while being a 16-plus yards per reception player. It's George Pickens and some dude named Randy Moss. He has that potential. The problem is Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, Mitchell Trubisky. Those are big problems. Russell Wilson, Justin Fields. And you might say, oh, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, he had at least a decent chance. No, they were worse than those other names.

43:59Mike Wright:Those are names that come up in his therapy sessions.

44:01Jason Moore:Here is Pickens' rank among wide receivers in catchable target percentage. So not his fault. Just like, could you have caught this pass headed your direction? His rookie year, 25th. Okay, that's not too bad. His sophomore year, 61st in catchable percentage. And then last year with his best quarterbacks ever, 71st. He was 71st in catchable target rate. So, like, he didn't have the option to go be great because the passes weren't catchable. Over that span, Dak Prescott is 7th in pass success rate, 6th in completion percentage, 8th in passer rating. And here's a great stat from Warren Sharp. I think this really highlights what I love the most about this fit and finish with George Pickens as a Cowboy.

44:44Jason Moore:The last two years, number one in passing yards on 15-plus yard go routes is Dak Prescott. Love it. Dak Prescott number two in most attempts on 15-plus yard go routes. Love it. George Pickens over the same two years, number one in most receiving yards on 15-plus yard go routes. Number two in most catches on 15-plus yard go routes. This is a match made in heaven.

45:09Mike Wright:It reminds me a little of the Baker-Evans match because Baker was always a great downfield thrower, and he found his guy, and now Dak has a trustworthy downfield receiver.

45:20Jason Moore:And if you look where they are used on the field, they are – CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, it's an exact inverse. Like, CeeDee dominates the middle of the field, the line of scrimmage and the crossers. Pickens is going to be the boundary and the deep end zone guy.

45:38Mike Wright:Do you think you can get consistency in fantasy from Pickens in light of – like, I'm sure some of the uncatchable target can be attributed to the fact he is a downfield guy.

45:48Jason Moore:Yes, yes, absolutely. I don't ever expect George Pickens to walk away being the number one in consistency, but you're going to have monster games. Where's he going right now? Right now he is the wide receiver 29, so he's not even being drafted as a wide receiver 2. He's in the 6th or 7th round, depending on your platform. And here's my final takeaway is I just want to remind people, Andy, a long time ago you used to bring up you had a problem drafting wide receiver 2s for their team. Like you would draft a bad wide receiver one for a bad offense over a great wide receiver two on a great offense, and you realize that was a mistake.

46:23Jason Moore:And here's a stat that proves that. In the last 10 years, 10 sets of teammates have both finished as wide receiver ones. And we've seen an average of four sets of teammates per year since 2010 that are both at the same time top 24 wide receivers. This is an offense that can't run the ball. please Micah Parsons don't be a cowboy be a bad defense throw the ball a ton and you can't cover George Pickens when you've got CeeDee Lamb on the field so I believe he is mispriced monster games he to me is a lock as a top 24 wide receiver and I think there's a world that exists where he is a top 12 wide receiver Brandon Cooks was a touchdown machine a couple years ago he was 30 years old I

47:06Andy Holloway:was going to bring it up for you the the Cowboys year when they went into the bye week the schedule the gates opened to the heavens and cd lamb and dac went on the run of winning people championships but in that time from weeks eight through 18 brandon cooks had seven touchdowns he had you know in that this is brandon an old brandon cooks he had six games if i'm counting right real quick in that time period of double digit fantasy points and that was brandon cooks that is not a Yeah, that was old washed Brandon Cooks. That is not the peak of his career, George Pickens. Yeah, he's not met expectations due to inconsistency.

47:48Andy Holloway:But it's like maybe he's not a true number one. Right. But maybe he's a 1B. There's guys out there. Is T. Higgins truly a number one? The question is, I think, still fair to ask. But he's a great 1B.

48:04Jason Moore:I would love a 6 '3", super athletic, downfield contested guy who is 24 years old going into a contract year with a good offense.

48:13Mike Wright:It does make sense, and the draft price is very attractive. All right, we'll take one more break, and we'll come back with our last four My Guys.

48:23Mike Wright:All right, Foot Clan, whether you are on the go or at home, T-Mobile, well, they're built to keep you connected wherever you're scouting your fantasy team. And that on-the-go part, that is important. With America's Best Network, you'll be connected to the latest news and player projections, so when you're on the clock, you can draft a winning team. I can think of so many situations where that element of being connected while you're on the go is fundamental to fantasy football success. I'm in the midst of multiple leagues right now where I am responding to trade offers. We are massaging the trade offer.

48:53Mike Wright:We want to make sure that I'm the one that gets the player, not another player manager in our league. So trade offers when you're on the go, all the news that's breaking so you don't make a mistake, and my favorite thing, maybe I'll mention it. Look, you're sitting and you have a quiet moment somewhere out and about. You want to jump in the UDK. We've got the player profiles. You can watch all of those in there with T-Mobile. You can jump in on the player projections and our stat projections and all the 130 ,000 words of content. Again, T-Mobile making that easy to do. Every bit of news, things are changing all the time, new player contracts, all that good stuff.

49:28Mike Wright:So from off-season to game day, every play is better with T-Mobile. what you got to do is visit T-Mobile.com slash network. Fastest is based on analysis by Ookla of Speed Test Intelligence Data of National Speed Score results for the second half of 2025. The best mobile network in the U.S. is based on analysis by Ookla of Speed Test Intelligence Data, second half of 2025.

49:52Andy Holloway:Today's show is brought to you by our friends at Old Spice with the Old Spice NFL Collection. You may not be able to play in the NFL. I know. I'm sorry. But you can smell like you do with an Old Spice NFL collection bringing you 24-7 game day freshness. Smell like an entire Pro Bowl roster with deodorant, body wash, 2-in-1 shampoo and conditioner, body spray, and lotion, all in new scents inspired by NFL legends. Old Spice, they have you covered. Are you feeling clutch? Matthew Stafford brings the Cedarwood. Or channel CeeDee Lamb scoring a winning touchdown with Deep Sea and Dimes. Look, we have a bunch of this stuff at my house I'm not joking All of this Old Spice NFL collection I, look, I'm an MVP guy I guess I like smelling like Matthew Stafford That's cedar wood I put it on I put on the deodorant And this is true Gave the wife a hug goodbye And she's like, what's going on?

50:48Andy Holloway:You smell great I was like, that's because I smell like an MVP I smell like Matthew Stafford Looking for the greatest smell in the NFL? go get the entire Old Spice NFL collection exclusively at Walmart.

51:03Mike Wright:All right, Mike, we took a little break in case you wanted to completely pivot to somebody else. It's your last shot. Right. Are you good?

51:10Andy Holloway:The pivot will not be happening. Well, I will say a pivot did had to happen because oftentimes with these my guys, I try to bring someone who I have been steady and higher than 80p on, but I haven't been talking about them ad nauseum over the offseason. This player was on the Ice and Fire show because he wasn't going to be in the My Guys part because everyone knows. But we got to the point where it's just I can't stop it.

51:43Andy Holloway:Travion Henderson. Oh, boy. Travo Henderson, as I call him, the demon. He is an absolute speed demon. Just start with the athleticism. 95th percentile explosive score you see that in all the camp highlights if you saw the the wheel route yes that the minnesota vikings misplayed but that's the point of he's so fast it is easy to misplay uh him in the in the receiving game he's a second round rookie and you might start at the point of okay well what if we have curmudgeon eve rabel like ah the rookies they You got to earn it. What's the best way for a rookie running back to be able to earn playing time?

52:22Jason Moore:Pass protection.

52:23Andy Holloway:How about pass protection? He is an unreal pass blocker. Henderson graded out as the best pass protector of the class at the running back position. Ball control. The dude does not fumble. The incumbent starter? He has fumbled. He has a massive fumbling problem. He has been benched. We're talking about Ramondre Stevenson. has been benched multiple times in his career for having a fumbling problem. The only reason that he got back on the field was because his backup, Antonio Gibson, fumbled more than he did. Also has a fumbling problem. And, look, I'm going to keep it a little bit shorter because, like I said, the Ice and Fire show, if you want to go back, that was – was that this Monday?

53:03Andy Holloway:Yeah. Who knows what day is.

53:04Mike Wright:It was one of the days recently.

53:06Andy Holloway:But, like, I just laid it all out. But here a quick summary. Rookie running backs taken in the first six rounds of redraft since 2011. 1160 percent of them exceed their adp expectations and when you factor in rookies who saw two and a half or more targets per game which henderson has a specialty as a pass catcher that jumps to an 80 percent of of those drafted running backs exceed their expectations and it it took andy i think a little bit longer to get on board with henderson but you're still we're all at the point of our stat projections where we got him at more than 210 opportunities he is a player that we like checks more boxes than we realize you know because of the the the projected win total for the patriots is much higher than the average joe would expect seeing what they did last year this is a team that is on the rise and henderson is going to be a massive part of it i his adp is going to keep going up we're currently looking at the sixth round he will not be there he probably jumps into the fourth and i have no problem with it i didn't even know you liked him um all right my final my guy we're going back to this well uh it's worked out very good in fantasy football for

54:19Mike Wright:a couple of years but that's not the reason why you believe is because it's happened before the reason is the player himself and the talent he possesses the third my guy

54:33Tyler Warren.

54:59Mike Wright:You can talk about Richardson or Daniel Jones all you want. Just like we talked about Gardner Minshew and Aiden O 'Connell. He must have. But let's just throw out the ambiguity at quarterback. Let's throw out the ambiguity at wide receiver. I mean, we love Josh Downs, the talent. But I think we'd all agree, Josh Downs is not built like Jamar Chase. He's not built like Tedderone McMillan. No, he's a felt smaller guy. He's got a role on the offense. Pittman, he's a good player. He's not a great player. He has a role on the offense. They spent the draft capital on Tyler Warren. You saw it on display in the first preseason game, the type of routes that he ran.

55:41Mike Wright:Three targets, three receptions with the starters, never left the field with the starters. Had a hitch route, sat down in the middle of the zone, had a deep out for a first down, saw the yards after the catch on display, looking like Trey McBride out there, had a play-action crosser for another big play. the talent of Tyler Warren I don't think people understand you look at Brock Bowers and what a dominator he was in college he's not far behind Tyler Warren he had more receiving yards versus man coverage than any other receiver in college football last year that's what Tyler Warren was capable of they even used him in some wildcat formations he is an athlete his per route metrics were incredible he had a higher targets per route run than Brock Bowers He had a higher yards per outrun than Brock Bowers.

56:28Mike Wright:That's wild. And Brock Bowers was what, pick, was he 13th?

56:32Andy Holloway:Yeah, he was in the mid-teens. So look, same range.

56:35Mike Wright:And going to a very similar situation where you desperately need a culture-changing receiver, a mismatch. I gave you the numbers against man coverage. He's going to be that mismatch on every single play. And when you're betting on a receiving option, look, you get the ball in Indianapolis. We don't know what this team's going to do, but I don't think that we look at them as a you know this is not a supreme defense they're going to need to throw the football Daniel Jones or Richardson either of those quarterbacks knows we've got to get the ball to this guy with the huge catch radius with the after the catch ability and here we are again the rookie tight end it doesn't matter it's a ninth round pick we're drafting a bunch of other guys that we know a lot about you want the most compelling argument against Evan Ingram is Tyler Warren in terms of the draft cost

57:20Andy Holloway:because him and Loveland

57:21Mike Wright:Yeah, they represent so much more upside. I think the floor is great for Tyler Warren. I think you can take him and start him. And even if he doesn't give you a Bowers year, you're still happy you took him in terms of consistency at the position. He's got, you know, a natural feel for the game of football that I think is just impressing me more and more and is free. So that's part of the my guy equation. Take these players that have so much tremendous upside, get them late, throw them on the team. and suddenly everybody wants him in like three or four weeks. There's not a person out there, not a soul, that will trade Brock Bowers right now.

57:55Mike Wright:If you're in a dynasty or keeper league, you cannot get that player. And we've got a new generation of tight ends on the way, and they're going to be the perennial all-stars. And I think Tyler Warren is that guy. He's got that dog in him.

58:06Andy Holloway:Oh, I was going to start my argument with it. Like certified dog, watch his college tape. And I am, you know, we're in year 11 of this show, So we've seen a lot of things, a lot of trends come and go, a lot of shifts in ADP of where guys are going. It's pretty surprising to me that we've had two years in a row that a rookie tight end has finished at the number one spot. And these two guys of Loveland and Warren, both with the draft capital, both with teams where Warren goes into, he could get that Brock Bowers target share. and then Colston Loveland, while he doesn't project as the number one, he goes to an offensive situation that should be very plus.

58:51Andy Holloway:And these guys are going late. The fact that drafters didn't react to it is surprising to me.

58:57Mike Wright:It shows the overpowering effect of team vibes because Detroit was awful before Laporta got there. Their offense was not special. And the Raiders, terrible. No idea what's going on at quarterback. Still were terrible on offense with Brock Bowers. They were. They were terrible. And that's like Brout Bowers could be very, very good. But then you look at Tyler Warren and the question marks, they all surround the other positions on the field. It's just a great ADP bet.

59:25Jason Moore:All right, I'm doing another rookie ADP bet because if you want to say a player is mispriced, there is a first-round NFL draft pick at wide receiver who is on a great offense where the role is pretty much already established from week one as an on-the-field, you know, 100 % type of player, and he's being drafted in the double digits, like, 10th round?

59:58Jason Moore:Oh, baby. This is a guy, pre-NFL draft, I was in love with. I think he is the best wide receiver of this draft class personally. That doesn't necessarily mean he has the highest fantasy ceiling, but he very well could. I mean, he profiles kind of like a Chris Godwin, right? Like he is a really just solid route runner, great hands, good athleticism. He's going to have the boundary work. He's just like a kind of a perfect actual NFL wide receiver. And how did Chris Godwin do last year?

1:00:36Mike Wright:There's not a guarantee that people know who he plays for. So, Emeka Ibuka. Listening to this show, that's how double-digit rounds he is.

1:00:43Jason Moore:Yes. Right now on ESPN, he's at the back of the 11th round. If you're on ESPN, goodness gracious, 10th round comes, just pull the trigger on Emeka Ibuka. Rookie wide receiver for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Chris Godwin last year in the first seven weeks was the wide receiver two for this team, for this offense with Baker Mayfield. And Godwin, we just talked about on the news today, hey, he's not there week one. He's probably going to start on the pup. If he misses the –

1:01:09Andy Holloway:Pup is four games minimum, by the way.

1:01:10Jason Moore:Four minimum. If he comes back in week seven, that makes sense. And I'm not worried about when he's back either. He'll start a little bit slow. But Egbuka will establish himself as such an important piece of this offense. Mike Evans will take a step back eventually. I think Mike Evans is a good pick this year. But this is an offense you want pieces of. And this is a double-digit first-round rookie. And if you're not familiar with Amika Ibuka because we talk a lot about the other two first-round wide receivers and we haven't mentioned enough about Ibuka, he was a five-star recruit going into Ohio State.

1:01:45Jason Moore:He was ahead of, in the 2021 high school draft class, he was ahead of Brian Thomas Jr., ahead of Xavier Worthy, ahead of Malik Nabors, ahead of Marvin Harrison. And then what did he go and do in college? Oh, he just set the Ohio State record for receptions all time while playing next to Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave and Marvin Harrison and JSN. He's a stud. He's a great wide receiver. If you listen to what is being said from Tampa Bay, everything is a buka. Everything is he is a pro's pro. He's a great blocker. He knows every position. He knows the playbook perfectly. He's where you want him to be every time.

1:02:26Jason Moore:Baker Mayfield was talking with the Kelsey brothers. Never heard of those guys. The question came from Jason Kelsey. Baker, what are you looking forward to this year with Tampa Bay? That's the question. Completely open-ended. What are you looking forward to? His answer, Emeka Ibuka is an absolute stud. He's a real deal. He's not saying what player, how are the rookies. He's just like, what are you excited about this year? He's like, dude, that dude's legit.

1:02:53Mike Wright:I've seen Todd. We know Todd Bowles. He's been out here in Arizona. He's been the defensive coordinator. He's been a head coach before. I've listened to him talk. This is not a guy that is flowery with his language. He is kind of like one of those professional coaches, keeps it close to the vest. He had no problem just basically saying that Ibuka was the real deal in every regard. So I agree. I'm so excited for what he represents in fantasy and for this team and for Baker, right? You want Baker to have a solidified set of wide receivers, and it feels like you just got this next-generation guy as Godwin and Evans begin to wind it down.

1:03:34Jason Moore:Yep.

1:03:35Mike Wright:So Ibuka, your final my guy.

1:03:38Jason Moore:My final my guy, double-digit round auto selection.

1:03:42Andy Holloway:Yep, I love it. I am fully in on Ibuka too. And guess what? There is one more rookie wide receiver that I am all in as well.

1:03:54Andy Holloway:Tedaroa McMillan. T-Mac. T-Mac out of U of A. He plays for the Carolina Panthers. His ADP right now is about the back of the fifth on Sleeper. The other platforms are lagging. They are trying to catch up. So he's a rookie, so I can't talk about his production as a professional. Just I can talk about him as a prospect. Like I said, U of A. How did he do there? Well, year two, over 1 ,400 yards. his final year, year three, 84 for 1 ,308 touchdowns. We're talking about a player with the most receiving yards in school history. Starting there, that's a great place to start. Then you talk about the comparables.

1:04:37Andy Holloway:Marvin Eloquin, he's one of our writers. He especially helps us out on the Dynasty Pass, which is available in the UDK+. But he has his own way of looking at players, and he's just comparing them. And for McMillan, when you factor in weight, because this is a big dude, McMillan profiles as a true number one and X receiver, 6 '5", 2 '12". So when you factor in size, draft capital, McMillan was an early declerer. He didn't play his fourth year of college eligibility. The names that show up are shocking because it is DeAndre Hopkins, Drake London, and Julio Jones. This is exactly who you would like to be associated with if your goal is to be a good wide receiver in the NFL.

1:05:24Andy Holloway:Now talk about back to the production in college. You know, you've got to be able to play against zone. You've got to be able to play against man. Well, the good news is against zone coverage, he was excellent. A 2.82 yards per route run when defenses are playing zone against him. Smart player figuring out how to find the space and get it done. Man coverage? Even better. and that's what I want out of my X wide receiver. I want a guy who can just bully a number one corner. We're talking three and a half yards per route run. This is absolute ridiculous production for him. Then you look at where is he going in the draft?

1:06:02Andy Holloway:Fifth round. Okay, Laporta, Jason's ice player from the Fire and Ice episode. Joe Mixon got a bum foot. David Montgomery, the backup running back on his own team. And then there's Ted Rowan McMillan. He is sitting in the perfect place for his draft pedigree and who he can become of. He's not pulling a Marv. He's not pulling a Malik Neighbors, who went in the second and third round or so last year in ADP. He's going in the back of the fifth round. There is very little risk for the upside that he could bring you.

1:06:37Mike Wright:I don't know if in the very, very beginning of draft season I believed he was an alpha. I definitely believe he was an alpha. And I don't think that everybody understands what I think is the gap between McMillan and the rest of their roster at wide receiver. Right. I think I'm sorry. I'm sorry, Adam. I think it is a massive, massive gap between those. We're talking, you know, Garrett Wilson and everybody else he's ever played with not named Devante Adams. We're talking, you know, Terry McLaurin and everybody else he's ever played with in Washington. It is a, it's very obvious to me, even from the preseason what we've seen so far the plan the plan is you're the driver of the offense it's not any of these other guys we'll we'll hand the ball off to legate every once in a while we'll give a crosser to the land coker you can contribute in the red zone i really truly believe tetra mcmillan is their full plan on offense and i think you'll see it sooner than later and regret not drafting him sooner than later speaking of the plan let's go to the team

1:07:41Andy Holloway:level we got the carolina panthers and i get it there's a stink there is a stench among the carolina panthers they have been bad for years but you have to look at where things are going

1:07:52Mike Wright:from week 12 on that's actually david tepper is what you're smelling uh yeah no i i recognize that

1:07:59Andy Holloway:smell anywhere it's a little tepper in here is bad from week look bryce young his we all saw it the beginning of last year that you you had the hope when the season opened and you went Holy crap, Bryce Young is a catastrophic bust, a true team killer that they traded up for, and it's just a total disaster. Gets benched for Andy Dalton. Bryce Young eventually gets the opportunity back, and Bryce Young plays extremely well. From week 12 on, Carolina averaged the team 25 points per game. That's 12th in the NFL. That's a top-half offense. They are on the way.

1:08:36Mike Wright:You are on team Bryce Young.

1:08:37Andy Holloway:I am, and it's a scary place to be. I will be honest about that. But the reason I kept saying an X receiver, an X receiver, head coach Dave Canales funnels targets to the X receiver. Two years ago in Tampa Bay, Mike Evans, monster season. Last year, before he worked his way off the team, remember what? Deontay Johnson was having a resurgence. When Andy Dalton took over because we were getting competent quarterback player, all of a sudden Deontay Johnson is a weekly must-start guy because this is the offense that canales runs i do believe that's why canales when they when mcmillan felt and they were like holy crap this is this is incredible rush the card in go get him going in the fifth is sensational oh and and we'll have one last point we love teams that have a high-powered offense and their defense stinks carolina's defense last year allowed 534 points the most of all time of are they excuse me the most the hundredth percentile i believe that's the zeroth percentile well the hundredth percentile in giving up the most points and maybe they improve but to go from the the most points ever given up of all time to a good defense that's going to take some time so i love ted rowe mcmillan in the fifth he is a very juicy upside pick he's a he is a stud so my three jameson williams amari and

1:10:02Jason Moore:hampton tyler warren jason i've got george kittle george and emeka buka that's right it's just george uh it took me a second you got two george's i do he tried to find a third

1:10:15Andy Holloway:yeah but there's there's not eddie george you want to go backwards i think you'll get zero points gotta be first names we got chase brown we got travion henderson and tedaroa mcmillan

1:10:24Mike Wright:All right, there it is, everybody. The My Guys for 2025 Breakers Breakers Breakout Sleepers Bustin' Value episodes coming next week. The UDK for Life giveaway is on Monday. Check out the Ultimate Draft Kit at ultimatedraftkit.com. And guess what? It's a lot more than a giveaway. You will also have the number one tool to help you dominate on draft day and set the foundation for your team. It is living. It is breathing. It is updated every single day. I made changes in the middle of this show.

1:10:52Jason Moore:Yeah, we make sure right up to kickoff that it is actually what we would do, what we believe, our tier-based rankings, all of our stuff. We're recording new player profile videos whenever news changes and breaks. It's a very good tool. I've never heard someone get it and regret it.

1:11:11Mike Wright:All right, that's UltimateDraftKit.com. Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for listening. For everybody here at the Fantasy Footballers, we appreciate it, and we'll be back next week. Stay tuned for a YouTube special tomorrow. Goodbye.

1:11:25Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

1:11:41Andy Holloway:Today's show is brought to you by our friends at Old Spice with the Old Spice NFL Collection. You may not be able to play in the NFL. I know. I'm sorry. But you can smell like you do with an Old Spice NFL collection bringing you 24-7 game day freshness. Smell like an entire Pro Bowl roster with deodorant, body wash, 2-in-1 shampoo and conditioner, body spray, and lotion, all in new scents inspired by NFL legends. Old Spice, they have you covered. Are you feeling clutch? Matthew Stafford brings the Cedarwood. Or channel CeeDee Lamb scoring a winning touchdown with Deep Sea and Dimes. Look, we have a bunch of this stuff at my house.

1:12:21Andy Holloway:I'm not joking. All of this Old Spice NFL collection. I, look, I'm an MVP guy. I guess I like smelling like Matthew Stafford. That's cedar wood. I put it on. I put on the deodorant. And this is true. Gave the wife a hug goodbye. And she's like, what's going on? You smell great. I was like, that's because I smell like an MVP. I smell like Matthew Stafford. Looking for the greatest smell in the NFL? Go get the entire Old Spice NFL collection exclusively at Walmart.

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