Fantasy Football - The Fantasy MVP Episode! - Podcast for 8/28

10:46Andy Holloway:just be you know shifting the pieces around but so san francisco brought valdez scantling onto the team but he's actually he's on the practice squad as of right now no he's probably eyeballing

10:57Mike Wright:kendrick bourne right about now yeah marvin mims uh-oh groin injury left wednesday's practice with an injury didn't return uh groinindex.com their newest member marvin mims jr so that's so sad for

11:12Jason Moore:a player who looked i mean i've drafted him a lot in um some later mocks and even in some live drafts where he looked like he was going to be two wide receiver sets on the field and now there's just this oh my god if he's out oh who's that i could be troy franklin and it could be pat bryan

11:34Andy Holloway:and it could be a little bit of both.

11:36Mike Wright:A little bit of both. I think both of those guys are so interesting at the top of the season for big plays, and Troy Franklin could have a handful of them. They are limited at wide receiver right now. Khalil Shakir returned to practice, so you need to just kind of probably draft him like you would have drafted him. Yeah.

11:57Andy Holloway:He's been slipping. I believe he's tough because he hasn't practiced.

12:04Mike Wright:Eat your fantasy vegetables and draft Kalish Shakir.

12:06Andy Holloway:I agree with the fantasy vegetables overall about Shakir, but he suffered the high ankle sprain on August 1st. And Matthew Betts, he's on our staff. He does a lot of excellent injury work for us, certified physical therapist. he talks about when guys miss that you know multiple weeks in training camp with an injury

12:31Jason Moore:the the probability hit rate on them is bad I will say this the the timeline well you know we'll we'll say there's a bunch through the season but if you remember a high ankle sprain you usually miss zero or three weeks and so he's got a month after that injury to recover plus he's got about another week and a half. I believe he will be okay from the injury. I will draft him like I would have drafted him prior to the injury, which is I'm not drafting him. Because prior to the injury, I just don't care about Khalil Shakir. I don't think he's fantasy professional. He's like fantasy quinoa. He's fantasy quinoa, where it's like Fantasy quinoa.

13:05Mike Wright:Yeah, 100 targets. We throw that 100 targets away.

13:08Jason Moore:It's fantasy quinoa in the sense that quinoa is supposed to be the super healthy food. It's okay. It's a lot of carbs. You're getting a lot of carbs in there. It's going to turn to sugar. It's not great for you. It's not as good as you think it is. And that's Khalil Shakir. Yeah, 100 targets. That's great. Turned into not a bunch of usable games. Yeah, careers have arcs, though. If you're in a full PPR, more.

13:30Mike Wright:He got paid.

13:32Jason Moore:He sure did. I don't know if you know this. Every single player playing has been paid. He was on pace for 113. He missed two games last year.

13:38Mike Wright:He's been double paid. 86 receptions from Josh Allen. I'll take that all day late in the draft. Panther second-year wide receiver Jalen Coker will be stepping into the slot role in Carolina. I'm telling you he is a great player. He is a good to great player. He's a very good player. He's a very good player. That's what good to great is. Let's go with that. Jalen Coker I think is a better player than Xavier Leggett. You're going to have Ted Oroa. By the way, let's just not forget. Ted Oroa McMillan is just now starting to practice again after tweaking. I believe it was his hamstring. Yeah, he had a yoo-hoo.

14:14Jason Moore:He had a yoo-hoo.

14:16Mike Wright:He did have a yoo-hoo. so you know re-injury is a risk with with mcmillan unfortunately so it is but goodness gracious the

14:26Jason Moore:the lanes have opened up ahead of him for driving very fast uh i think an autobahn yes exactly he is on an autobahn and and this will be really they love jalen coker they love they do um but ligette's going to be on the field in two wide receiver sets whereas coker will probably be more of the slot guy I don't know.

14:45Mike Wright:I don't know.

14:46Jason Moore:I don't know if that will happen all the time.

14:48Mike Wright:Devon H. And Tyreek Hill on track to play week one for the Dolphins. It's been the quietest of off seasons for Tyreek Hill. It's either negative or neutral all off season long. I haven't. You know, when you talk about the vibes, Mike. Yeah. And when to pay attention. Follow the vibes. And when not to. The vibes are not positive on Tyreek Hill. And yet there remains a chance that he is awesome. I mean. You can't shut the door on that. He's a special player when he's right. and Jalen Wright had a minor procedure and will be out. And the goal to return is one of my favorite quotes ever. It's September-ish.

15:21Jason Moore:Yeah. You always want your expected returns to have an ish.

15:28Mike Wright:Malik Neighbors said Wednesday that the back injury that sidelined him the last few weeks was a minor thing and shouldn't be an issue moving forward. So we'll take that as a little soft pat on the back and we'll be encouraged to draft Malik Neighbors. that was news and notes sponsored by progressive insurance quote today at progressive.com progressive casualty insurance company affiliates and third-party insurers not available in all states or situations coverage subject to policy terms limits and conditions all right without further ado it is time the season is upon us let's pick some mvps

16:09Jason Moore:who's your fantasy mvp

16:12Mike Wright:all right we have asked some friends in the industry to share their fantasy mvp picks with us as well as uh we've got matthew betts kyle borgannoni from the dynasty podcast sharing theirs and we'll share ours at the end we'll start with matt harman good friend of the show one of the very very only few guests in that old school upstairs studio that we had years and years ago football writer and analyst for yahoo creator of reception perception which was featured in the udk for a handful of years here we go matt break it down this better be a wide receiver what's going on everybody matt harman here host of yahoo fantasy forecast and of course creator of reception perception my 2025 fantasy football mvp is drake london of the atlanta falcons normally wouldn't want to go with somebody that's a top pick in one of these type of segments but i think the upside this year is absolutely massive for drake london first of all this is a guy who's a proven target earner 29.3 percent target share last year third most in the nfl among wide receivers owned an outrageous 38.9 % target share in Michael Pennix's three starts.

17:26That's not necessarily going to carry over to 2025, but this was the second time in his career where London's pushed north of 29 % or been right around that number. Target Hogg, who also got a big boost in his layup targets due to a flip in his role, he played just boundary X receiver in his first two years under Arthur Smith. Last year, career high in reception perception, 38.9 % sample snaps in the slot and 52.7 % snaps off the line of scrimmage. Weaponized in motion, ran a career high dig routes in reception perception. The guy that's been a proven man press beater in his three years in the NFL now weaponized with this role.

18:04He's been one of the best receivers I've chartered over the last three years on deep out routes. Michael Penix can hit him there. I think this is a guy who's a dark horse to be the wide receiver one overall. lead the NFL in targets and maybe even push for the triple crown. So big value. Who has him in dynasty?

18:20Mike Wright:Drake London. We look at Drake London. Could he be the wide receiver one? He's talked about triple crown. Could he be the wide receiver one in fantasy? It's always comedic when people put, you get so used to how players are being drafted. And then one player goes slightly out of order and everybody's eyes are like, Oh, I took Puka Nakua over Jefferson in a league recently, and it was like, oh, my gosh, what are you doing? And it's two picks later. I feel like Drake London's in that camp. If you took him over Seedy, if you took him over Amon Ra, if you took him over Puka, would that be appropriate?

19:00Jason Moore:It definitely could be. It's a matter of your belief, I think, in Michael Penix. If he's going to have the Triple Crown and be in the running for wide receiver one overall numbers, obviously he's got to have a good quarterback. You're not going to ever have someone as the wide receiver one with a bad quarterback. At least I can't think of a possible example of that.

19:22Andy Holloway:A 35-plus percent target share can help you get there.

19:25Jason Moore:Yeah, and he could be there because they really need him. The reason that we have talked recently positively about Kyle Pitts is because there's not a lot of people to throw the ball to, And it's Drake London, Drake London, and Drake London.

19:39Mike Wright:Yeah, yeah. And that's our first MVP pick here from Matt Harmon. We'll move on to our second MVP pick, Rich Rebar, at Lord Reeves over on X from Sharp Football Analysis with his MVP pick. Since I'm hitting at Madden curse level, since you guys introduced this segment, the player I'm going to curse this season is rookie wide receiver, Ted Aroa McMillan. You look at McMillan as a 19-year-old freshman, eight touchdowns, 18 yards per catch, carried that through the rest of his collegiate career. He closed second in this draft class in yards per team pass attempt last year. He was seventh in yards per outrun.

20:15This is a six foot four, 219 pound monster. He enters the NFL where that archetype is a little less prevalent than in previous eras, but this is a player that I don't believe offers linear production. He has some versatility to his game. Last season, he forced the missed tackle on 35 % of his receptions. That was third in this class. He also did play in the slot for 21.6 % of his snaps to ravage 4.48 yards per route run. Now he enters a Carolina offense helmed by Dave Canales, who has funneled his offenses through his wide receiver ones, whether it be Mike Evans two years ago, Deontay Johnson for the open of last year, then Adam Thielen to close last year.

20:49We'll see if Thielen remains on the team through this last week of the offseason or even through the trade deadline. And when Bryce Young had on the field this preseason, He targeted on 36.5 % of his routes for 3.91 yards per route run. I believe Ted's getting punished for what happened with Marvin Harrison Jr. last year. He should be a smash wide receiver too, and one of the best picks you can make at ADP at wide receiver this season.

21:14Mike Wright:All right, Ted Aron McMillan. One thing he mentioned in the middle of that very well-backed prediction. Reeves always has the stats. It's just a reminder. like we just joked about Deontay Johnson and the amount of teams he's been on yeah there was a point in time last season last season yeah where he was dominating 14 targets eight receptions 13 targets seven receptions wide receiver four 10 12 with Dave Canales with this offense and it feels like that was 40 years ago it wasn't it was last year that the Deontay Johnson has been separated from five other teams was dominating in this offense there was also a time last year and I

21:53Jason Moore:I brought it up a couple times, and we just can't believe it was true, where Adam Thielen dominated on this offense with Bryce Young. Yeah, dude. So, I mean, this is – who's better, Ted Arola McMillan, top 10 NFL draft pick, or 34-year-old Adam Thielen, or poisonous Deontay Johnson?

22:14Mike Wright:Poisonous, that's a good word. Yeah, it's definitely wheels up for Ted, like we were talking about with the Jalen Coker conversation. That's our second MVP pick. We'll take a break and jump into some more.

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24:45Mike Wright:All right, let's turn the page here. We've got Drake London. We've got Ted Aron McMillan, a couple of wide receivers so far. Nathan Yonke from PFF, lead fantasy analyst over there with his MVP pick. My fantasy MVP this year is Jordan Mason, the new running back of the Minnesota Vikings. He averages 5.3 yards per carry and was sixth in fantasy points through five weeks last season. Reports suggest a 50-50 split with Aaron Jones, but the roles matter. Mason has the early downback, which typically scores more fantasy points, and Jones on passing downs. Mason is also the more explosive of the two, with 15-plus yards on 8 % of his career carries versus 4 % for Jones each of the last two seasons.

25:31Kevin O 'Connell keeps his running back usage fluid, so if Mason is playing better, then he should earn more playing time. I also expect an improved Vikings offense. Minnesota has elevated quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold. I expect J.J. McCarthy to be just as good if not better than those quarterbacks. T.J. Hawkinson should be healthier this season, and left tackle Christian Darasaw is back with his top 6 run block grade over the last two seasons. They also completely reworked the interior of the offensive line, so I expect the Vikings offense to be better in several areas this season.

26:08The team should be among the league leaders in points scored, and I expect Mason, as their goal line running back, to be scoring a lot of those touchdowns. Best of all, he works regardless of draft strategy. Zero running back, hero running back, or even after taking early backs still draft jordan mason thanks for having me all right

26:28Mike Wright:appreciate that jordan mason has come up quite a bit this offseason i i've had the hardest time when i see aaron jones dropping in drafts when i see jordan i have i have had a hard time with jones too you know it it's one of those things where it's like reminds me a little bit of Brees Hall and Braylon Allen's situation where we're kind of fatigued a little bit with the years and years of Aaron Jones and Brees Hall. And here's Jordan Mason, who had some games in San Francisco last year, got obviously brought over with a purpose. But I've had a hard time kind of figuring out where to pull the trigger.

27:05Mike Wright:Do you take Aaron Jones if he drops late? He seems to be one of the starters dropping the latest.

27:10Jason Moore:Yeah, I would definitely take Aaron Jones ahead of Jordan Mason um but hopefully I mean on average draft position he is going well ahead it's it's really when Aaron Jones goes where he should be going in drafts and then late in drafts Jordan Mason sitting there he is a real value he could be one of those flex with benefits that Mike talks about where a starter on a regular basis but then should something happen to the elder statesman incumbent starter then then he's wildly involved my only issue with Jordan Mason every time I go to pull the trigger is just this lack of existing pass catching work correct he is you know and they don't need him to be that there no no they don't so my only hope is that if aaron jones were to go down and jordan mason gets an opportunity to have the whole workload would he add pass catching to

28:01Andy Holloway:that a little bit i don't think a probably not a wild amount yeah i don't i don't they'd have

28:05Jason Moore:another committee back yeah i think when christian mcaffer went down a great pass catcher it wasn't like Jordan Mason came in and caught passes. So you've got a goal line back and a talented between the tackles runner.

28:15Andy Holloway:The issue when you're looking at – because Aaron Jones in the sixth, like that by itself, standalone, you're like, okay, he should be the – maybe he's the early down guy. That remains to be seen. But they did – they gave him some money. It's going in the sixth, high-powered offense. But in the sixth round is also –

28:36Mike Wright:Were you talking about Aaron Jones or were you talking about – Aaron Jones. Okay.

28:38Andy Holloway:Yeah, because in the sixth, if your target is Aaron Jones, but you go into the sixth, you've got George Pickens in that round. You've got DeAndre Swift. You've got Tony Pollard going in that area of the draft. So you're bypassing those guys, and then Jordan Mason's in the ninth. So it's like you can get a piece of the Minnesota Vikings offense for cheaper and then be like, oh, no, I want to bet on DeAndre Swift.

29:03Mike Wright:The hardest part is just to you. Which is wild. Would you put Jordan Mason out in your lineup in a flex spot in week one? I think that's the question. People don't know how to answer.

29:11Jason Moore:No, I think you would not. Oh, I'd be willing to do it. Yeah.

29:14Mike Wright:So there's where I've passed on Mason. But the opportunities in front of him and the team, if they give him more of the workload, it's a huge opportunity. All right. J.J. Zacharisen's next. At late round quarterback, host of the late round fantasy football podcast, Living the Stream. He has been a part of this show for quite some time. I am sort of teasing. Like, before I put this up, I just don't know what graphic. That's what I was.

29:40Jason Moore:I was just like, we usually put his little kid picture. I don't know what. Let's find out. Hello, you beautiful gentlemen. It's your good buddy. To give you my fantasy MVP for this 2025 season. I really tried to not go with this player because he's just cruising up draft boards at the moment. It's like I'm just leaning into the hype, but I'm having a hard time not saying Travion Henderson. Henderson looked great in the ZAP model, and that's no surprise because his pass-catching profile was awesome coming out of Ohio State. As a freshman, the Duke caught 27 balls for 312 yards and 4 touchdowns.

30:13That was on a team with Jackson Smith and Jigba, Garrett Wilson, Chris Alave, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Emeka Igbuka. Now in New England, he's sharing a backfield with Ramondre Stevenson. Stevenson might steal a lot of that ground game work, but he's coming off a really poor season and yards per route run. I'm expecting Henderson to capture as high as a 15 % target share in that offense. And maybe the rushing volume for him will be higher than we expect. It doesn't even have to be insane for him to hit in a PPR format. Since 2011, there have been just 5 instances where a running back hit between a 50 % and 60 % running back rush share and a 13 % to 16 % target share.

30:51Those are both well within Henderson's range of outcomes. those five running backs ranked 18th 13th 12th 8th and 6th in ppr points per game i'm in on henderson because his floor is really solid but he has room to grow for a really nice ceiling

31:07Mike Wright:outcome too all right i never even heard of that guy which one henderson or jj i mean uh we're in a chopped league on sleeper. I took Ramondre late because I think, I know the train is coming, but it's like, if I'm going to get anything out of Ramondre, it's going to be the first couple of weeks when he gets the most work he's probably going to see all year. Henderson, you know, he's not going to be every down, but he is going to be so efficient for this offense. He's very, very talented.

31:41Andy Holloway:Man, 15 % target share. Guys. If he hit 15%, goodness gracious, he's going to be incredible. And I agree with JJ. That is something that could happen. The New England Patriots, we've talked about them a good amount of their win total is much higher than you expect. And the wide receivers, it's Stephon Diggs. And then you've got Pop Douglas. Okay, that's a fine slot player. But who's the wide receiver? Three, no idea. Henderson might absorb a lot of targets.

32:19Mike Wright:All right, Travion Henderson, Jordan Mason, two running backs in a row. We've got Kyle Borgannoni, his MVP pick, coming up right now. What's up, Foot Clan? For the 2025 season, my pick for MVP is Colts rookie tight end Tyler Warren. If home leagues are essentially a vicious street fight against your league mates, I want someone on my team who is a certifiable dog. from the wildcat formations at Penn State to being an absolute terror in man-to-man coverage, Warren is simply a matchup nightmare in the NFL. Ignore your platform's ADP and be willing to take Warren a round or two ahead of the rest of the jabronis in your league who are waiting on tight end late.

33:00Mike Wright:The jabronis and the borginonis. Look, my guy. I've been reaching on him everywhere. And sometimes I've missed because somebody else has done it.

33:11Jason Moore:Yeah. uh the 80 do not play the 80 game with tyler warren you will you'll lose if you want him and you're like well according to his adp he might be at my next pick sixth round um let me let me look at seven whatever the last league i've been in you know tyler warren went sixth round in a 2qb because his his 80 no he went six round yeah he went six round he went ahead of his adp is late eight so seventh round in went ahead of ingram our league of shadows we're playing with eisen so i mean he's i think seventh round is where you're gonna have to take him yeah

33:46Mike Wright:and that's fine yeah i mean that's the other part of the equation to me like i'd do it i would try

33:51Jason Moore:to do it at that point you know i i talk about the the lack of wanting to take a fifth round tight end even though they're they're presumably better because in the fifth round there are really good running backs and wider receivers but when i look at what you're taking tyler warren over javante williams and tyrone tracy and it's like those guys could work out but you're in a spot where it's like take a shot at a huge, you know, Javante Williams is not going to win you your fantasy league. Like there's no world where that happens this year. Clip that. But Tyler Warren could.

34:22Mike Wright:He would need to take some drugs. All right, Matthew Betts, our injury expert, one of the hosts of the DFS and the betting dino pod, or the DFS and betting and the dino pod. There you go. I was just throwing words out there. With his fantasy MVP pick. What's going on Foot Clan? In the middle rounds of my drafts, I like to harness the mentality of someone like Ricky Bobby. If you ain't first, you're last. After we've locked up our starting running backs and wide receivers with projectable volume with our first few picks, we should be shooting for massive upside in the middle rounds of our drafts, not drafting for safety.

34:57And this year's ADP landscape presents a unique opportunity to draft a wide receiver with true league winning potential. Your 2025 fantasy MVP is none other than Travis Hunter. Sure, he could play more corner than we realize and it might be tough to play both ways in the NFL but this dude is different and if we knew we were getting a full-time wide receiver in this scheme with this draft capital he'd be going way earlier in drafts. Liam Cohen has already suggested Hunter will play around 80 % of the snaps on offense and that should be plenty of opportunity for Hunter to crush this ADP. Currently going off the board in the sixth or seventh round depending on your platform Hunter is an awesome target as your wide receiver three in drafts this weekend.

35:34Good luck Foot Clan and let's bring home those hashtag Foot Clan titles. Do ball. Do ball.

35:42Mike Wright:Travis Hunter, I do not feel has gotten enough love on this show or in the fantasy community because he plays corner. If we were able to just very in a linear way.

35:55Andy Holloway:I think because he's also the number two. Like when Brian Thomas Jr. is on the team, you don't imagine Travis Hunter is walking in and be like, like Ted McMillan. You're like, he's the dude right away.

36:05Mike Wright:It's fair, but our analysis gets, it's not clean. right like if if he was let's say travis hunter was just the best wide receiver in college football and drafted a number two if malik neighbors landed on that team i think we'd have we'd have talked about him more is my point i think a little bit and i agree with what you're saying that's the brian thomas thing i just it's very easy for us we go to ted a row mcmillan it's like you're the dude yeah um travis hunter is there a possibility he's just the dude i i don't know

36:35Jason Moore:if we can get there yeah i think it's both it's the fact that he's going to be playing cornerback and he he is he's absolutely going to be playing both ways so um exciting to see how that works but the talent is there he has you know the potential to be the wide receiver rookie of the

36:53Mike Wright:year i mean mike evans has been a one his entire career right yep yeah okay we we've sit we've had chris godwin be a dominant fantasy force sure a lot in a in a liam cohen offense he was on a roll so um it's one a one b potential i guess is what i'm saying yeah there is the potential for that of course yeah so travis hunter's the pick we'll move on we got a great friend of the show jamie eisenberg fantasy football nfl analyst for cbs sports it's jamie eisenberg from cbs sports my fantasy MVP for the 2025 season is Christian McCaffrey. Bang! He's a top five overall player for me. I'm taking him as the number three running back behind only Bajon Robinson and Jameer Gibbs.

37:36And by the time we get to week one, I might like him better than both those guys. There's just so much upside with McCaffrey. You know what he's capable of when healthy. He scores like a quarterback, over 24 PPR points per game in 2023. 2024 was a disaster, as we're all aware, only playing four games. Killes injury, knee injury. It was a Greek tragedy. but I think McCaffrey will be back and hopefully better than ever. Look, everything around him is falling apart. The backup running backs are decimated. They had to go trade for Brian Robinson. The receiving core is a mess. He's going to be involved in the passing game, maybe to a higher level than we saw in that 2023 campaign.

38:06As long as he stays healthy, he's going to be in contention to be the best player at his position. One of the best players in all of fantasy. And I want him on my fantasy team. So if I get a pick in the top five and I have those other four guys in front of him again, Bajon Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, I'll take two receivers over him as well for now. in Jamar Chase and CeeDee Lamb. I just think McCaffrey's got maybe more upside than anybody we've seen. So hopefully he stays healthy for the entire season. Hopefully by the end of the year we're talking about Christian McCaffrey leading a lot of people to fantasy championships.

38:33Mike Wright:Well, Mike liked that. I heard three hopefulies in there, and that is the story of McCaffrey.

38:39Jason Moore:It is. There's a handful of players where there's not really a lot to analyze. If he's on the field, he's great. He's not always on the field. So you're just playing a little bit of, you know, some people love slot machines. Okay. Right. And that's what this is. It's put the money in and maybe you hit the jackpot.

38:57Mike Wright:Yeah. All right. We have one more before we share our MVP selections for 2025. It's Rich Eisen of the Rich Eisen Show and everywhere else. Rich Eisen, legend of the industry. Here we go.

39:11Jason Moore:My fantasy football MVP for 2025 is going to be Jameer Gibbs. I have a feeling. I don't know what it is. I just feel he's going to get the ball a lot more. and I feel like his home run ability from the last couple of years is just going to get more tape measure. So I'm looking at you, Detroit. I'm looking at you to get the ball to Jameer Gibbs. And, yeah, I understand he might get vultured by Knuckles, but I think Sonic is going to go crush it. My two cents.

39:43Andy Holloway:Eisen's got the vibes, the Gibbs vibes.

39:47Mike Wright:Yeah, and he also drafted Gibbs in our – He did.

39:51Jason Moore:I almost took Gibbs there because I was one pick ahead of Eisen, and we had this video in, so I knew that was his guy. I was like, ah, if I don't take Gibbs there. But I couldn't take him over Barkley personally, so I took Barkley, and he got his Gibbs.

40:08Mike Wright:So Jameer Gibbs, I mean, I've said it. I believe he could be the number one overall running back very easily this year. I don't think people are giving that enough potential. potential.

40:19Jason Moore:I was thinking about this this morning, knowing we were going to talk about Gibbs, and I've had a slight bear case for him with the workload of David Montgomery and how high he's being drafted. I've really cooled on that. Gibbs is too talented. He is probably the best offensive weapon, including Amon Ross St. Brown, on the Lions, which is a great offense. The idea of not getting him more and more involved as his career gets more and more into his prime would be foolish. Obviously, David Montgomery is there. He's going to score plenty of goal line touchdowns, but Gibbs is just too good. He's just too talented to be stupid and make a bear case against him.

40:59Mike Wright:All right, we have three more to reveal. Our own fantasy football MVPs for 2025. Let's take a break and come back with some league winners.

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43:17Mike Wright:All right, to run it back, Rich Eisen had Jameer Gibbs as an MVP, Jamie Eisenberg with CMC, Matthew Betts with Travis Hunter, Kyle Borginoni with Tyler Warren. Love that. JJ Zacharyson with Travion Henderson. Nathan Yonke with Jordan Mason. Rich Rebar with Ted O 'Rome McMillan. And Matt Harmon with Drake London. Jason, who is your fantasy football MVP for 2025?

43:39Jason Moore:My fantasy football MVP for 2025 is rookie running back for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Caleb Johnson. This is a player I adored the film on, and not everybody did. there were disagreements on whether or not he was truly an elite college prospect or not because he's a patient running style with explosive afterburners once he gets going. And we've seen that already in the preseason. There's been tons of reports from camp. He was named offensive rookie for them. And Caleb Johnson has been very good so far, I think, early on. He's had some reports of not the best pass protection. Look, that really is overblown.

44:23Jason Moore:I know he's a rookie and you want to get on the field, but being good at pass protection is great, but for fantasy football purposes, you go back and look at who is PFF's lower-graded pass protectors. A lot of times, it's the guys getting dump-offs. Go figure. Caleb Johnson, first of all, ignore the depth chart. He's a rookie. I know you got Arthur Smith there, but for what it's worth, Devon Achan started third on Miami depth chart at this point in time. Look at what he did in college production profile-wise and how that translates to the NFL. He had a 52 % dominator rating in his final year at Iowa.

45:01Jason Moore:That's a wild stat. The most predictive stat from college to the pros is rushing touchdowns for running backs. He had 21 rushing touchdowns his final year. and this was a team where he was the yards per team play, it was Caleb Johnson. Like the defense knew who to stop. It was Caleb Johnson. Here are the round one through three NFL draft picks, so a day two pick or earlier, who had a 40 % dominator score and a two-plus yards per team play. It's Le 'Veon Bell, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, Brees Hall, A-Chan, and Caleb Johnson. He is a really good running back.

45:43Jason Moore:A lot of people in this preseason have complained about a lack of explosiveness because he is that patient run style. He hit 22 miles per hour in college. He is fast. Forget the 40 time. Only 4 % of running back attempts go for 15 plus yards. But when you get that break, can you take it to the house? I promise you Caleb Johnson can. You will see a 40 plus yard rushing touchdown this year from Caleb Johnson. He had eight forced missed tackles this preseason. That led the whole preseason. He only had 24 total attempts. Just for context there, only three running backs all last season had eight forced missed tackles on 24 or fewer attempts in a game.

46:23Jason Moore:James Conner, Henry, and Mixon. He's a good back, and you look at the situation. That's the final thing I want to say is his situation I think is really nice for fantasy, for being a good draft pick. You've got Ashton Jenty being drafted in the first round. You've got to get lucky to even get him. Amarian Hampton, I looked at the ADP across all platforms that I took. Each rookie's top because they're probably all going to go ahead of what their ADP is right now. Amarian Hampton was 304 ADP. Travion Henderson is 407 ADP. The highest ADP on Caleb is the 611. He's at that 6-7 turn, and on some platforms he's in the ninth round.

47:04Jason Moore:He's got to compete with Jalen Warren. Okay, Jalen Warren's a starter. He's going to start the year as the starter. But Jalen Warren's never had 150 carries in his career. And at the goal line, do you think Jalen Warren's a starter? He is not. He had four carries inside the five last year. You've got a team that obviously you've got Arthur Smith there. Oh, no, I don't like that. But Arthur Smith was there last year when Najee Harris, a slow, plodding Najee Harris had 300-plus opportunities, and Jalen Warren was the helpful back. I think Caleb Johnson's too good to stay off the field by the end of the year.

47:40Jason Moore:I think he has the chance to be a workhorse back here, a league-winning back, and he doesn't cost the farm. He can be a non-starter week one. He can go in your flex for where you can get him in drafts. I think he's my fantasy MVP. I love the talent, and I expect him to be a very good player this season.

47:59Mike Wright:Mike, thoughts on Caleb Johnson?

48:01Andy Holloway:I'm not as hot and bothered as Jason is, but I do like the draft cost of getting – he was third-round NFL pick, Jason.

48:11Jason Moore:He was pick 83 overall. Which was their second pick. They didn't have a second-rounder.

48:15Andy Holloway:Yeah, and, I mean, they really needed him. They chose Warren over Najee. That for sure happened. And I don't know if this was part of the plan of they said, okay, well, we're going to let Najee go because in this draft class, we can find the bigger body player for that archetype for our offense. He is – where he's going in the drafts, I think it is a fine upside pick.

48:40Mike Wright:I'm a little worried that people will end up taking the pick and getting nothing for a while and then feeling like – Yeah, I do think it starts slow. And feeling like, well, what do I do now with this dude on my bench? And am I actually just waiting for an injury? I'm not as comfortable with the player or situation as Jason is. Jason's been strongly convicted I remember him having the same convictions around Brees Hall

49:01Jason Moore:and then Brees Hall working out so one of my favorite things about Caleb Johnson is that it is not universal who doesn't love Travion Henderson well now everybody you know I mean it's true even

49:13Mike Wright:of the NFL GMs because RJ Harvey Quinshawn Judkins Travion Henderson these are all players that went ahead of Caleb Johnson on teams that needed running backs exactly so I don't think like me

49:21Jason Moore:making him my fantasy MVP, steaming him up right now, I don't think he's going to go super high in your drafts. That's what I love about him. He actually could be a value.

49:31Mike Wright:It's crazy because I think you were so close. You know the guys on the beach that bring out the metal detectors and they go searching and they go searching. You had the metal detector out and you were so close and you started digging and you accidentally got a tin can, but if you had gone a little bit down the beach, same team, you would have found the true fantasy MVP.

49:50Jason Moore:Oh, okay.

49:51Mike Wright:So I just, I heard the beeps, but it was actually coming a little bit down the way. DK Metcalf will be your fantasy football MVP for 2025. Metcalf is a, he's a perfect match for Aaron Rogers in this offense. He will have like, unrelated to this debate and discussion and bringing MVP forward. I literally, we were going through our UDK rankings the other day. I look at jason and i and i'll just pull it up right now and i'm going is this is this really the depth chart at wide receiver in pittsburgh is this actually what they're going into the season with you're darn shooting i mean robert woods yeah calvin austin and roman wilson yeah and ben skaronic somewhere ben skaronic i mean dk metcap this is this is even if you don't believe in him which I do.

50:46Mike Wright:I think the money says the league believes in him and he is a true alpha. He has the capability to be a top five receiver, no question. But even if you just look at the sheer mathematics, the math equation, the targets, it's almost impossible to not be a super relevant fantasy football wide receiver with the targets I think DK Metcalf will get in this offense. over the last five years 74 wide receivers have hit 130 plus targets which seems like a shoe-in i doubt any of us have them for fewer than 130 targets 92 of those are top 24 89 are top 20 65 are top 12 he runs all the routes he is physical on the goal line he is going to be targeted a record-breaking amount of times for his career i mean i'll look it up real quick his career high in targets is 141.

51:39Mike Wright:I'll be shocked if he doesn't get in the 160s, 170s in this offense. Same problem with Arthur Smith. I understand it. I just don't know what you do on offense. I literally don't. They brought him in there intentionally and jettisoned George Pickens, who you guys love this year in Dallas, obviously. This is DK Metcalf's show, and this is a late fourth-round pick. I got him at a steal yesterday in a draft to be my wide receiver one like I went if you go running back heavy and you're trying to identify which guy you want to lock in as a potential later wide receiver one to me he is that guy all right you know I agree I mean he was my value pick

52:20Jason Moore:I think that he is mispriced in fantasy and because he's going into his seventh year it's not going to change people aren't going to become excited overnight is just a valuable pick for where who's going in drafts.

52:33Mike Wright:All right, Mike. Do you want me to get the tape from last year? Are you going – are you going to do it fresh?

52:38Andy Holloway:No, we're running it back, ladies and gentlemen. We are talking about the great Kenneth Walker, Ken Bone Walker. I'm going to back him again here. Where's the – I can boo myself. That's fine. I'll allow it. He booed himself. I was doing it for you. Oh, thanks, man. It's a man of honor. I mean, it's cool. You just don't like 14.4 points per game, which is what Kenneth Walker did last year. The story is he played 11 games. He let you down in that aspect. He was not available. And to talk to that, I will stay super positive, Mike.

53:22Mike Wright:I'm not going to go against you on this. I fully acknowledge, I think Ken Walker could be a game breaker if things go the right way for him which is not just the injury thing it's everything right it's the big picture it's the scheme everything that's setting up we talked about Darnold Darnold was my pick for to be the new Sam Darnold the new Sam Darnold like I think he'll do the same thing in Seattle they'll be more successful they will be in the running for the division and so that comes on the back of Ken

53:48Andy Holloway:Walker I'll be positive for you today Ken Walker year one and year two he played in 15 games and And of course, I want that to be 17, but running backs, for them to miss one to two games a year, that is not uncommon, especially when you are utilized as a workhorse running back, which that's how Ken Walker has been used. In 41 career games played, he has seen, and you can see this on thefantasyfootballers.com, we call it the workhorse rating, which is the percentage of total team rushing attempts and targets. He's seen 31 % of the total rush attempts and the targets over his career. Anything over 30 % is elite.

54:32Andy Holloway:Just for that stat over the last three years, only four running backs have averaged 13 or more PPR points plus a 30 % workhorse rating each year. That's Barkley, Henry Mixon, and Kenneth Walker. The question of coming out of the draft, can he catch? well his first couple years a seven percent target share and eight percent target share last year was 14 they relied on him as a pass catching running back he is you think that happens again in a new i don't i don't think he gets to 14 but i'm just saying of the the team saw it that they can't they can use him they can they can check it down to ken walker you don't have to go to your your spare running backs as seattle has done you know they did back in the past, the injuries in training camp are not great.

55:20Andy Holloway:I totally accept that. And Charbonnet, the talk is he's looked better. In preseason, Charbonnet has looked great. But what really stood out to me was the blocking scheme. The Kubiak system coming into Seattle is very fascinating to me. I mentioned this yesterday that the team on their 53-man roster kept four tight ends and two fullbacks. This is a team that last year, they won 10 games. They went 10-7 and they fired their offensive coordinator. And changed quarterbacks. Because they... Jettisoned two wide receivers. Right. This wasn't the system that... They had success, but it wasn't the system that they wanted to run.

56:03Andy Holloway:And while Charves is fine, if he gets the opportunity, I think he will have some success. Kenneth Walker is a different level of talent you know the the missed tackles we brought this up of of he's essentially number one and just forcing very good at the individual statistics on a per game basis and so very good at those install a an actual real professional blocking scheme and let ken walker do what he can do with his talent in the he he's being drafted in the fourth round the level of work like the workhorse rating that that he's had over his career generally speaking that would be a second round pick like if if you didn't have to worry about the training camp injury stuff i think he would be going way higher but it's there he is practicing right now the plan ladies and gentlemen

56:51Mike Wright:they have a plan because i mean that you have to have a plan it tells you everything you need to know their head coach had to establish a unique different yes plan to try to stop him from being hurt all the time. Jason, thoughts on Ken Walker?

57:06Jason Moore:He is one of those players where I feel like where he's going in drafts, I will always take someone else because there's other guys I like in that range. And every time I go, man, I hope I'm not like I I'm not confident that I'm not watching. Mike has a type, though, doesn't he? Oh, Mike has a type. They're great when they're on the field. You just don't know if they'll be out there. It's a real boom bust.

57:30Mike Wright:Christian McCaffrey,

57:31Jason Moore:Ken Walker when they're out there they're the best ever and you know you play for first and Mike really does that's right for first what is the what is the statistical though no there are no there's no one I have ever played fantasy football with more than Mike who has never finished between like three and third yeah like every every year I love biscuits baby you're either you're you're you're in it and you're you know near that championship game or you are in danger of the punishment like that's you are you are playing with dynamite all right let me and you have a lot of titles let's play a game here um percentage chance that christian mccaffrey

58:17Mike Wright:plays 16 or more games give me the percentage 16 or more yeah i'm giving him a game i'm letting

58:24Andy Holloway:to miss a game yeah i'm saying like oh sorry not 16 yeah yeah 16 i mean 16 is like that's what i'd say for almost all running backs i'm good like when a put when a running back makes it two 17 games or 16 they only miss one like that's a great season 15 okay thank you just say like just like oh he he missed the point of my question is what that whatever you define healthy as if

58:51Mike Wright:You define it as 16 games. I just want to know the percentage chance. I want to do some math here. Percentage chance of McCaffrey playing a full season by your definition.

59:01Jason Moore:Is this for everybody or just Mike?

59:02Mike Wright:It's just for Mike. Okay. I just want to see.

59:04Andy Holloway:Let's go at 15 games. I will put it at, I mean, that's like a 50-50 shot probably.

59:11Mike Wright:Okay, 50%. Same question, Ken Walker.

59:15Andy Holloway:Ooh, I'll go under that. Let's go 40%. 40%.

59:20Mike Wright:And then let's just, for the sake of argument and historical analysis, T. Higgins.

59:26Andy Holloway:Oh, T. Higgins to appear in 15 games?

59:29Mike Wright:Yeah.

59:31Andy Holloway:3 %? 3%.

59:33Mike Wright:I guess I was just, like, I think what's coming through about the type is that. You multiply those times each other, right? That's what I was like. I was like, you're a gambling man, but what kind of odds do you like? Because do you need all three of those guys to play 15 to win a title? Is that the math equation, or would you not stack these on a roster?

59:52Andy Holloway:No, I'm willing to stack them. I'm willing to go after. Okay, that math.

59:55Mike Wright:I don't know if anybody out there is a mathematician, but 50%, 40%, 3%. Yeah, you just multiply those. That's all you got to do? I'm pretty sure. Why didn't you do it then? I thought that's what you were doing.

1:00:06Jason Moore:This was your bit. Why am I being held accountable for your bit?

1:00:11Mike Wright:Okay. I guess I wanted to figure out what the odds were that all three could be.

1:00:14Jason Moore:Well, are we sticking with 3 % because that's not a realistic number? I don't know what actual percentage of them hitting.

1:00:21Andy Holloway:They have a high percentage chance of getting hurt I would say. But it's like if Walker plays 15 he's going to be he will be a top 10 running. If we gave T.

1:00:34Jason Moore:Higgins a 40 % chance then there's an 8 % chance. That all three stay healthy?

1:00:38Mike Wright:Okay that's what I was looking for.

1:00:40Andy Holloway:Never tell me the odds. Never tell him the odds.

1:00:43Mike Wright:Do you? Ken Walker you said if he's healthy he's a top 10?

1:00:47Andy Holloway:running back is that what if he plays 15 games he'll be a so you're not threatened by charbonnet

1:00:50Mike Wright:as much even though no see i think the team loves charbonnet i think the team i think you can love

1:00:54Jason Moore:him charbonnet i think he's great i think he'll get a lot of i think he will get a lot of snaps i am equally unafraid of charbonnet for from a standpoint of will kenneth walker be great for

1:01:06Mike Wright:fantasy he's probably part of the plan charbonnet is probably part of the the walker plan yeah no i

1:01:10Jason Moore:agree I think I think Charbonnet will get more work this season when Walker is healthy than he

1:01:17Mike Wright:has in the past touchdowns Mike do you see double digit touchdowns for Ken Walker absolutely yeah

1:01:21Jason Moore:I can I can see all of that I mean that again I pass him in most drafts that I am in um because where he's going I still really like the other players on the board and and I hold my breath and I guess at that point I'm almost hoping that he's injured because if he's not I have to play against him and he's going to be good.

1:01:40Mike Wright:All right. We have a final mock draft episode tomorrow before the weekend. That'll be fun. No show on Labor Day. And then week one, we'll be here. We'll bring you our Super Bowl picks. Starts of the week. Matchup breakdowns. Yep. Week one stuff starts. Yeah, baby. Next week. Do not miss a chance to get in on the ultimate draft kit right now for the weekend. UltimateDraftKit.com and come play with us in the Megalobowl. Megalobowl.com. Goodbye.

1:02:08Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

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