Fantasy Football - Top 10 QB Rankings + Listener League is Back! - Podcast for 8/4

10:29Mike Wright:uh khalil shakir week to week with a high ankle sprain not just him

10:36Jason Moore:josh palmer with groin groin injury that depth chart there that was already

10:41Mike Wright:yeah is this your plan to get keon coleman more activity in the offense i mean it's kind of mean

10:47Jason Moore:it's good news for keon coleman uh for the opportunity i still believe he's the only player there that has any chance of a breakout i don't believe the breakout is going to happen but at least he has more opportunity to you know develop a rapport with Josh Allen Elijah Moore is there and honestly if you're talking about Khalil Shakir it that player would be more of an Elijah Moore type Curtis Samuel yeah Curtis Samuel although I believe he is currently injured

11:16Mike Wright:as well he's always injured yes he is yeah um Sean McVay Matthew Stafford this is getting scarier Is it scaring you? It is. Because the Rams, you know, he's been navigating a back injury again. The word from camp seems to be like eventually he's going to be back out there and playing.

11:37Jason Moore:Right. I hope so.

11:39Mike Wright:Well, I mean, it hasn't been like ominous from them other than the absence of Stafford, but he's a veteran. He's second oldest quarterback in football, I believe.

11:46Jason Moore:You knew that he wasn't going to play any preseason. None of the Rams play preseason games, but they do really value their inter-team scrimmages, and Stafford is not taking part in those. And then there was the rumor, I'll call it a rumor, I didn't see any confirmed for sure report, but it seemed like it was going around that he had another doctor visit. And you don't do that when you're in the recovery process that is expected and the timeline. Like, okay, he went to seek another doctor. So I'm getting a little scared.

12:23Mike Wright:Yeah, the last call from McVay, looking forward to getting him and easing him back into football, hopefully in the near future. Yeah, there's a little worry there. Groinindex.com has been active.

12:35Jason Moore:A week ago, we talked about there was nobody on it.

12:38Mike Wright:And I think we cursed some groins out there. some groins are hurting tucker craft groin injury guess he's been practicing through it they gave him a couple days off tj hawkinson groin injury michael pittman groin city joshua palmer was a

12:53Jason Moore:groin uh terrence ferguson groin injury marshawn lloyd groin groin this is man people aren't

12:59Mike Wright:stretching right no no no do your uh runner stretch folks uh aj brown is that the the butterfly oh yeah that would help the groin yeah sorry about that uh aj brown dealing with a hamstring injury he basically swapped spots with davonta smith who came back to practice like they both can't be back so that's what it is aj brown hamstring injury a lot of soft tissue issues in the camp season and uh that includes cam scadaboo who aggravated his hamstring injury but the mra mri was optimistic as of this morning um now i don't me in here yes when i feel like when you get a hamstring injury

13:40Jason Moore:you don't always get an mri like i've i pulled my hamstring it's a little tight i don't know for sure not a doctor not a team doctor but do like every time a player pulls their hamstring a little do they always go get an mri to check because when i saw this and it's like oh the mri uh was was good it was optimistic it's like i think wait a minute he got an mri like there's

14:04Mike Wright:a pretty serious hamstring injury yeah i mean i i would imagine that not everyone that happens to but it's how you grade them so they probably with the re-aggravation wanted to see how bad it is because they got like a c plus no not quite not quite but um yeah i mean i think he's there they're hoping to have him back he's been making a lot of plays in camp i love here's one of the you're a

14:30Jason Moore:big scataboo fan i am a huge scataboo fan i think he's fantastic and and i i believe that every analyst when you watch the film in college you're just like wow no one can tackle him i mean you look at his numbers and they are legitimately christian mcaf christian mcafree-esque um um the question was can it translate can that play style work in the nfl still to be determined obviously he hasn't played a game but when you see these camp videos of him running away from nfl defenders um you know breaking nfl defender tackles when the pads go on it's like oh okay he looks like he's doing here what he did in college what do you think the recipe is this

15:12Mike Wright:is one of the reasons why i have a little bit of hesitation on malik neighbors having a spectacular year is just that like the recipe for me in new york doesn't involve throwing the ball as much as they did in previous years i mean what do you have 170 targets or something like

15:31Jason Moore:so it's like and i believe that was with missed games yeah and so you're you're looking at a

15:36Mike Wright:defense that looks pretty good right and then you've got a running game they're trying to develop with Tracy and Scadaboo and I wouldn't want Russell Wilson throwing it as much and so I just wonder if their recipe is not like touchdowns weren't a part of the neighbor's equation it was massive massive massive target volume it just it leaves me a little bit like actually neighbors and Brian Thomas I have a little bit of hesitation on both of them not because of talent but because of situations like Travis Hunter has been unbelievable in Jacksonville Do you have any worry about Brian Thomas? Because Travis Hunter, I mean, for a lot of reports, is the best wide receiver in camp.

16:15Jason Moore:I would say that.

16:16Mike Wright:It's like, how do you bring that kind of a guy in there? I mean, they had no Kirk, no Ingram. Thomas got all the volume. Trevor Lawrence missed time when Thomas was the best. Like, it gives me.

16:26Jason Moore:Brian Thomas has more worry because of Travis Hunter, certainly. Malik Nabors, I have 0.0 worry. I mean, my worry meter on him is so low. You're right. It was 170 targets with two missed games, and they will definitely not want to throw as much. But are they a good team? Are they going to be winning games? Are they going to be losing games? The first half, they're going to try to establish it, have a good defense, run the ball. But I remember when we were going through our divisional breakdown, I believe they have very few games this season where they're even favored. And so by the end of the game, they're going to need to throw the ball a lot.

17:01Jason Moore:When they do, there's no one to throw the ball to other than Malik Nabors, who had a 35 % target share last year.

17:07Mike Wright:Yeah, that's the thing. It's like, obviously, I think Neighbors is one of the best talents in the game. I guess I just mean, like, are Brian Thomas and Malik Neighbors in contention for you in finishing top three? Because sometimes when you're taking these players, because wherever Neighbors is going, wide receiver seven or something, and Brian Thomas, I think I'm ranked lower than you guys. But are they still top three finisher contention for you? For sure.

17:32Jason Moore:I think Brian Thomas is a little bit more capped, but I think Malik Nabors is just that dude. I mean, you want to talk camp highlights, right? Like you see so many dumb things coming out of camp. You know, like, oh, look, he's making touchdowns look easy when he's literally in one-on-ones or no defender. It's, you know, silly videos. but then you watch i am seeing so many different touchdown celebrations and touchdown scores and toe tap touchdowns a touchdown touchdown touchdown touchdown from malik neighbors in camp and they're not all coming in like red zone drills he is special he's just so good i'm looking at

18:11Mike Wright:this because i want to look points per game because he missed time last year he was eighth in points per game on 170 targets so like from a target perspective you see the differential between like him and Chase had the same amount of targets basically but Chase had 17 touchdowns he had seven yeah I mean it's just like they're not I mean like you said they're gonna be down but that doesn't mean that that also means they're not gonna score a lot of points it just makes me wonder if that seven eight territory is kind of where he's gonna be they are favorite I I don't

18:44Jason Moore:have any doubt that I mean I don't have him ranked in the top three I think he'll be closer to seven or eight this year because I don't believe he is going to have double-digit touchdowns. But there is a world here. They're only favored in one game the entire season. How many games does Russell Wilson start?

19:01Mike Wright:Well, that's another thing that's going to happen. They're going to change quarterbacks.

19:03Jason Moore:They're going to change quarterbacks, but they really don't want to bring Jackson Dart in. I mean, that's their hope. Oh, is this your Jameis story? Is this your Jameis story? Can you even fathom? Jerry Judy was the wide receiver four in points per game with Jameis. Malik Nabors?

19:21Mike Wright:dude oh man you you love jamis oh i love him for fantasy have we talked about terry mcclaren requesting a trade we have not i mean we have but we haven't on the show so not only him but michael parsons as well but mcclaren's relevant to this situation here he's formally requested a

19:37Jason Moore:trade it's not likely he'll be traded that feels like a threat like like michael parsons feels like i am not a cowboy anymore he came out and posted publicly he'll be a cowboy i think he'll be a

19:48Mike Wright:Cowboys. We've been here. Trey Hendrickson. He's in camp now. He requested a trade months ago. It's very very rare for these guys to get traded in these situations.

19:57Jason Moore:Yes, it is. We saw Vaughn Miller got traded in one of these situations, but I do think Micah Parsons leaves. Oh, I don't. But Terry McLaurin, I don't think anyone in the world believes is getting traded.

20:08Mike Wright:If he does, the implications are huge for Jaden Daniels, for Deebo Samuel, for Zach Ertz. If he were to depart, that is going to massive fantasy yeah that's just gonna hurt your jayden daniels upside a lot yeah not that they don't have other players that i think and you know that are pretty talented and he can get a lot done with the legs and everything but that would suck i mean you need a premier wide receiver yeah i

20:33Jason Moore:would imagine the only way they traded him is if they were to go get another premium wide receiver that's younger i think they're in a terrible spot too washington like this is a 30 year old

20:43Mike Wright:wide receiver that wants to break the bank he wants dk metcalf money i would pay him dk metcalf

20:48Jason Moore:money all front loaded in the first two years of his contract his per year should be astronomical his so he can be proud of it so he can be proud of it he can say he you know and and get a lot of money but then he should have no money guaranteed three years from now he's gonna be too old and

21:05Mike Wright:then you'll have to pay for jayden at least all indicators right now is they have no interest in trading him. So there you go. That was today's news and notes sponsored by Progressive Insurance. Quote today at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and third-party insurers not available in all states or situations coverage subject to policy terms, limits, and conditions. We are going to take a quick break and we'll get into the countdown, Jay. It's time to talk quarterbacks.

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22:15Quarterbacks.

22:16Mike Wright:All right, we're counting down our consensus. Top 10 rankings at the quarterback position. We're looking at four point per touchdown rankings today. and um it you know it it's always interesting diagnosing what quarterbacks you want to take a shot on do you want to spend the high draft capital where are you in this you know we this year 11 for the show we've gone through some ebbs and flows on quarterback sentiment and where you want to take them and and maybe a bunch of years of of experiencing top tier versus the streaming situation like what are you the most comfortable with going into 2025 yeah i think

22:58Jason Moore:there's a a few targets that i have on my quarterbacks this year and it really really depends draft by draft because the the average draft price of some of these players like josh allen of course i'd love to have them lamar jackson be awesome for your fantasy team they're jalen hurts jaden daniels these guys aren't going to bust outside of getting injured there so you're not going to be wasting your draft pick. However, there's massive opportunity costs. If Josh Allen is a second rounder, there's no way I'm taking him because if he does what he did last year, which was finished, I believe is the quarterback to maybe even quarterback one.

23:34Jason Moore:If you look points per game in that week 17 or week 18 taken out, um, but he didn't really win people fantasy championships because you sacrifice such a good player. However, in certain leagues, like in our leagues um you know when we do our mock drafts on the show that are all humans and we're not just you know mock drafting against animals against animals and and robots right you know all of a sudden you start seeing some of these guys go down into the fourth round the fifth round uh that are the top tier quarterbacks and at that point i'll absolutely pull the trigger um you know once you get to the fourth round i think that's worth pulling the trigger on the elite quarterbacks and then outside of that I'm skipping and bypassing and getting a late one uh some of the guys we'll talk about today I think late round quarterbacks that run the ball hopeful upside from a Drake May a Kyler Murray and I this name has been cycling through I mean just a just a a twister of back and forth are you gonna say Anthony Richardson I am gonna say Anthony Richardson he he needs to

24:38Mike Wright:be drafted so last last offseason i spent most of the offseason telling you not to draft anthony

24:43Jason Moore:richardson but that's because jayden daniels not anthony richardson over and over and over but

24:47Mike Wright:that you know he's a what bothered me so much is he's a fifth round pick yeah and he'd never proven anything right and so as a you know that's not the cost the risk reward for anthony richardson at this point so it is worth mentioning right now anthony richardson's being drafted behind

25:03Jason Moore:matthew stafford like he's he costs nothing he doesn't even have to be your main quarterback Just have him be your second quarterback.

25:09Mike Wright:He could be your last pick in the draft if you ended up with a late-round guy, like somebody that you are taking a chance with. Maybe it's Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Tyler. Absolutely. And just drop him if he doesn't do anything or isn't the starter.

25:21Jason Moore:100%. But he's the one and only player that I think I would do that even if I took Lamar Jackson in the fourth. Just for value potential? Just because if he comes out week one and is awesome and he's just winning the job, you have an incredible trade asset. And either guy, I mean, that's where you, you know, if you believe that it's going to happen, then you trade your Lamar, you trade your Josh Allen for a haul, and then you still have a good quarterback.

25:47Mike Wright:One of the things that we pulled some data on since 2018, if you look at the top 10 quarterbacks as a group, 88 % of their fantasy points come from throwing the football, 12 % from running. If you go down to the top five, that goes to 85-15. if you look at the number one quarterback since 2018 it goes to 79 21 in terms of fancy points come from running the football so you know the the one thing i might take issue with your comments about richardson on is the he if he's awesome because maybe he's not awesome for football but he's awesome for fantasy well that's what i'm yeah i know i know i know it's just like he could be one of those guys that's mediocre as a you know as a nfl quarterback which i think he is but come out there and as long as he's a starter he could give you some value and if he's free that's a lot different than the fifth round and you know fifth round meant you were committing yourself to richardson as your starter last year that was the problem too is like you don't even get another choice you're spinning such a high pick yeah and it buries your season i mean if you if you take a fourth fifth sixth round quarterback you're now saying you're my starter and if that player stinks for the first three or four weeks, you're in a huge hole.

26:58Mike Wright:I still believe... 45 % of his fantasy points last year came on the ground.

27:02Jason Moore:Yeah, I mean... Have you seen him throwing?

27:05Mike Wright:45 % was also his completion percentage.

27:08Jason Moore:This is a very, very difficult thing to say on the record because it sounds dumb, and I'm always willing to sound dumb. I still believe Anthony Richardson can develop into a good NFL quarterback, not just fantasy. I think he can actually become a good quarterback where five years from now, he's in the MVP race.

27:28Mike Wright:The development has to happen now, though. Oh, for sure. It has to be in the next eight weeks.

27:33Jason Moore:Yeah, he's not going to get two more years to keep trying. And it took Josh Allen, what, into his third season before he – is that when he got Stephon Diggs?

27:41Mike Wright:Second.

27:42Jason Moore:Oh, is it his second? I thought it was his second.

27:43Mike Wright:Or maybe he stepped up in fantasy in the second year and got Diggs in the third year.

27:48Jason Moore:I want to say it was the third year.

27:49Mike Wright:But I mean, that is not, there are infinitely more Deshaun Kaisers and Marcus Mariota. There's one Josh Allen. There's one Josh Allen. So I don't want that to be the standard, but that can be the hope. We can do that. All right, let's kick it off. Number 10. Baker Mayfield.

28:09Jason Moore:Laser.

28:10Mike Wright:All right, look, we have a humongous disparity in our personal rankings that I did not realize until this moment in time. I have him at six. Jason at 13, Mike at 14. He's being drafted as the QB7. I have said it, and I guess I'll say it again. I am totally comfortable with seventh round Baker Mayfield, every week starter Baker Mayfield. We've talked ad nauseum about our views on his history versus his recent history. I love Egbuka. You've got Evans, Godwin, McMillan, Otten, White, Irving, who had an impressive camp wheel route diving catch the other day. He can catch the football. Look, I just love their offense.

28:54Mike Wright:I love the new Baker. This was the quarterback three last year, quarterback 10 the year before. I see him right in the middle of that. That's why I got him at six. I don't think last year's touchdowns are going to be easily repeatable, but I do think 35-ish is in the range of outcomes, and I just love the offense. So, you know, last year was very, very special. he was the third player in NFL history with 4 ,500 plus yards 40 plus touchdowns and over a 70 % completion percentage magical like that is that is also like part of my ammo for the this is a different player than we saw early in his career because you just you cannot accomplish that over 17 weeks with the Baker we saw the first three or four five years in Cleveland and you know the Carolina camp and all of that so it's a at number 10 you know maybe we balance out yeah we we do

29:44Jason Moore:You know, I've got him at number nine in six-point passing. That's right. This is four-point per passing touchdown. And because he's not a super mobile rushing quarterback, last year, 378 rushing yards. That was awesome. That's why he really propelled up to number three. But that is the outlier. And that is not a system thing. Like, maybe he leveled up as a passer. He leveled up in this system. He's gotten used to his weapons in Tampa Bay. I can totally agree with the argument that as a passer, he's just better. He's not old Baker career stats, but there's no way that at this age he just leveled up as a rushing.

30:19Jason Moore:You know, he didn't rush more. He had more rushing attempts two years ago, and he's always been like 150, 160 yards, and all of a sudden he had 378, so many breakaway runs. That's not going to repeat, in my opinion. And so I also think, look, Egbuka's awesome. He is, you know, I said I think he's the best wide receiver in this draft class. not necessarily for fantasy because I don't think he's got the Tett McMillan type of upside, but just as far as an NFL wide receiver, he is so good. But he's not as good as veteran Chris Godwin as a current rookie. And Chris Godwin might be hampered. So I don't know that the beginning of the year is really better weapons for Baker this year than last year.

31:02Mike Wright:I think Ibuka could be the most productive rookie wide receiver. Certainly possible. I actually believe it's possible. But one of the question marks around the team is a new offensive coordinator. They've come out, and he's made comments about basically small tweaks to an existing working system, which is what we've expected. Has Baker ever had? Baker's always had to deal with this.

31:25Jason Moore:Has he ever had the same coordinator two years in a row? I genuinely don't know if he ever has.

31:30Mike Wright:I'm not sure if he has or not. He might have, but it was probably a coordinator that should have been fired in Cleveland. But he went from Canales to Cohen to Grizzard now. who is making small tweaks to an established offense. Is that how he prefers it? He prefers Grizzard?

31:47Jason Moore:Yeah, I think he prefers how he wants it.

31:50Mike Wright:Yeah, Josh Grizzly. But last year, I mean, fourth in points per game, third in yards per game, an amazing offense. And again, the chance you're taking with other quarterbacks is not the one that Baker represents. To me, he's not a huge risk.

32:06Jason Moore:I would agree with that. I don't see him having a monumental upside so it's about where he is in the draft you're comfortable grabbing him in the seventh round I think I prefer some of the other players that are there and I think I prefer some of the quarterbacks that go a little bit later than him but I also do not believe that if you draft Baker in the seventh that's going to like crush your ability to win in fantasy he's a he's a good quarterback he's going to be you know probably a low-end quarterback one in six-point passing touchdown leagues.

32:38Mike Wright:Well, here's one last bit I want to mention because I'm looking at the consistency percentages in the UDK. So we have consistency charts that chart out players. We give you the consistency grades, but the consistency percentages chart actually breaks down the percentage of time that a player finishes the week as quarterback one through six, seven through 12, right? So you look at that. Last year, there's only two players that did it 50 % of the time. Lamar and him Lamar and Baker the next closest is 38 % Burrow Allen so consistent I mean Jane Daniels just to give you perspective on how good of a year he had because certain weeks were amazing week-winning weeks Jane Daniels was 33 % of the time as the top six quarterback on the case on this on a week so um that just speaks so much to what he was capable of doing 50 % of the time him and Lamar are the only ones all right moving on number nine Dak Prescott I love Dak Prescott this year but I'm scared about the beginning uh I'm I'm you know I'm very confident that they won't

33:42Jason Moore:be able to run the ball well exactly but I'm not what if Micah Parsons is traded that would be good

33:48Mike Wright:for their offense yes uh but their defense took a huge step back last year and and Dak obviously only played eight games um he has not i guess he's played one full season in the last five is that true yes yes he played 16 games in 2021 oh okay all right so we'll call that a full season okay so he's played he's played a full season two uh he's he's McCaffrey of the quarterback position right sort of i mean he really is two out of the last five years he's been great for fantasy

34:15Jason Moore:very helpful help people win and the other three he's been injured that is it that's identical to

34:20Mike Wright:mccaffrey yeah so um you know he was a league winning quarterback in 2023 i hate that because it was your quarterback yeah it was great and cd lamb george pickens uh ferguson just signed a new contract dallas plays faster in the last two years they played very fast number five in plays per game that matters seventh and red zone plays per game fifth and points per game all of those things really matter now the offensive line is not what it once was when dac was kind of a perennial finisher i mean part of getting hurt too is is that protection on the offensive line and i'm i am worried about that but just for the haters who think i hate dallas i mean i've got dac at seven and four point that's the highest of the three of us so you know that's how it should play out but you are taking some risks with dac from a health standpoint and even the year i want to mention this even the year in 2023 where he finished at quarterback three and won championships he was

35:20Jason Moore:not startable at the beginning of oh no he that's what I mean he got off to such a bad start I think this season is going to be good but I worry about the start again this year he's got a brutal opening

35:30Mike Wright:schedule Philly in Philly the Giants and that defense Chicago and then Green Bay yeah and I

35:36Jason Moore:believe it's one or two more weeks I think it's the the Jets after that or that's from memory I don't have the schedule in front of me. It's not good from a passing defense's schedule to open the year, but I also think he has never been set up quite as well. George as his wide receiver too is a monstrous upgrade. It's really valuable to him to have someone else to open up the field to. He's a good quarterback. He's literally never not been a quarterback one without a season-ending injury in his entire career so i believe with a bad defense no running game and his you know upgraded receiving weapons he's set up to succeed i will say this though if you look at last year

36:19Mike Wright:he was not going to be a top quarterback that's why he got injured he's like i gotta keep i was gonna say that's a good way out but you know it was a bad run i mean he had he had a number one overall game against Baltimore in week three but outside of that 22 15 11 12 28 18 22 and these are games against you know Atlanta New Orleans he was middle of the pack so even with the I know George represents a lot to you guys but it was not with the offensive line issues I think you might have seen a little bit of a prequel last year that's my worry about him let's talk about somebody else we constantly worry about number eight kyler kyler murray uh i hate talking about kyler yes kyler as a cardinal fan that's why kyler is uh i would say three years into he's been frustrating for fantasy players for three straight years yeah he sucked last year he was the quarterback 10 he finished as the quarterback 10 but if you want if you had to watch him play football

37:21Jason Moore:it was 20 in your heart maddening he was a c in consistency he would have great games look awesome and then the next week it's like i don't know man i don't know if it's the call of duty thing

37:34Mike Wright:i i'm pretty worried about kyler because i don't i think the team learned a little bit of a recipe last year run the ball and i think you know james connor we didn't mention it in the news james connor coming out talking about him and trey benson being rb1s together if you listen to the offensive coordinator and head coach. They don't seem to think that's the way it's going to be, but they are going to commit to the run. They've got a defense that has a chance to take a step forward. And the one thing that concerns me, and this is somebody, you know, I like Marvin a lot this year for the value, but why do I worry about Marvin?

38:05Mike Wright:I don't worry about Marvin for his talent, ability, route running, physicality, any of it. I think Marvin is more than capable of a huge season. I worry about Kyler. I worry about you rarely see Kyler get into kind of that flow state as a quarterback and go back to back to back to the same wide receiver. It's been a while since we've seen that level of effectiveness. You can go back to Hopkins, basically. He had it going with Hopkins, but it's been a minute.

38:33Jason Moore:Yeah, it has. That being said, his draft price reflects the frustration of the last few years. He finished as the quarterback 10 last year in what we think was a bad year he didn't have a good receiving core and obviously rookie Marvin Harrison wasn't ready rookie Marvin here or sophomore Marvin Harrison looks pretty darn good in camp he's bulked up in size he's catching everything he's got McBride out there and so when you're telling me he's two rounds almost three rounds later than Baker Mayfield and he runs and and Kyler's been on the record this offseason saying he watched Lamar and he realizes he really needs to run the ball more which is awesome for fantasy you can see a path where Kyler could be a top five fantasy quarterback this year uh he's already done it

39:19Mike Wright:around and a half ahead of Baker behind Baker behind yeah yeah okay you said two or three

39:24Jason Moore:rounds I was just clarifying I see him at the 811 so like almost the ninth round so um maybe different uh ADP sources but um so to me the value on Kyler as a later quarterback who is mobile and if things click if he does run the ball more he's got the ability to like if Kyler as a Cardinal fan we have I think for years been like why don't you run the ball more it's like his superpower and he doesn't use it the way that Lamar uses his the way that you know and it's not like Lamar is Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, one of these big humongous guys. He's taken hits. Kyler's always been afraid of the hits.

40:06Mike Wright:It was the second highest rushing total in his career last year. But I don't expect anything to fundamentally change about Kyler seven years in. That doesn't happen very often.

40:17Jason Moore:We know he's not a world beater. He's not going to be the MVP of the league. So I don't know. Are you fine drafting Kyler where he's going? You'd rather have Baker in the seven.

40:30Mike Wright:I don't think I'm drafting Kyler very often, no. I'd rather have Baker around and a half earlier, and I'd rather take shots on players like Jordan Love, Bo Nix. No, I don't like because I think I know Arizona, and I think I know Arizona wants to manage it. They're not going to win it through the air very often.

40:49Jason Moore:It is worth pointing out their draft this year. I believe they drafted one offensive lineman in the third or fourth round, and every other pick was defense. Every single thing. What they did in the free agency was go and sign Calais Campbell and Sweat. You're 100 % right. What they desire to do is to be a defensive team.

41:12Mike Wright:Well, I mean, look, outside of Marvin Harrison, who are your wide receivers? Zay Jones gets talked about right now. Love Zay Jones at camp. That should tell you where they're at. Michael Wilson banged up. He's your number two. So it is just – Trey McBride. But, yeah. Yeah, I just meant, like, no new additions. you know this is the same group that they're running out there uh moving on though bigger name number seven patrick mahomes big name i i looks like i'm the lowest in four point on patrick mahomes at 11 i wish it was me i don't like having him at seven i'll be honest this is the most undraftable quarterback in our list i am not drafting patrick mahomes in the sixth round

41:54Jason Moore:i'm not doing that patrick mahomes i can wait around and get cut and get baker this is where

42:00Mike Wright:you need context 11 of the time last year patrick mahomes had a quarterback one to six finish his

42:06Jason Moore:consistency would be one game his consistency percentage was rated an f he was how low does our scale go though it's f is the lowest we don't give out f minuses if we did patrick mahomes would the quarterback 11 last year okay so i at the end of the year he's going to have enough stats accumulated to have a decent season it's very we've talked about in the past philip rivers did this year after year after year after year he'd play the whole season he'd throw enough you know he's gonna he's gonna throw the ball a ton a lot of screens a lot of dink and dunks and philip rivers would finish as the quarterback 11 quarterback 8 quarterback 10 but you cannot pick them and play them every week to have happiness and success and so I still think that's where Mahomes is at right now they've talked about wanting to throw the ball down the field more but I don't know that they really are going to now you don't have Rashi Rice for

43:06Mike Wright:maybe eight weeks yeah that that hurts the upside case for Mahomes as well for sure so yeah I mean

43:14Jason Moore:Mahomes is the cheapest that you can ever get him and when you leave your draft you're going to like your team more than you should because of how it looks with that name yeah you're gonna be like oh my quarterback is locked in if Mahomes has a magical season and and I do think Mahomes will get it together like by the time he retires I think he'll have more seasons in his future with really good fantasy finishes you know where he's where he is top five it doesn't appear to be this year with a the oldest yet travis kelsey a suspended rushy rice he just doesn't have the weapons and and the defense is really really good since 2018 he's returned his draft cost one time

43:55Mike Wright:so that that tells you where we are don't drive with my homes my homes number six bo nicks number six uh this one is it's wild if you look back a year ago that the thought that we could be ranking Bo Nix ahead of Patrick Mahomes. At number six, 25 years old on a Denver team that is, you know, pretty exciting.

44:20Jason Moore:I mean, he did finish ahead of Patrick Mahomes last year.

44:23Mike Wright:Yeah, yeah. I mean, 29 passing touchdowns on the year, second most ever for a rookie quarterback. Cortland Sutton's locked up. They have a bunch of versatile wide receiver talent beyond Cortland Sutton. It was a really impressive year. if you want to look for red flags um most batted balls uh in on the entire year tied with geno fourth highest check down rate so taking easier like he was completing easier passes 60 of his targets were less than 10 yards i mean it's very drew breeze right it's the sean oh you're

44:59Jason Moore:right now you're right breeze was always batted down at the line because you get the ball out quick, except now you've got someone who's a dual threat. And that's why I love Bo Nix is because he can, you know, he rushed the ball 92 times last year. That's an incredible number. And he's got the wheels to be able to do it 430 yards. So you're getting a late quarterback who last year finishes the quarterback seven, despite the first month of the season, you know, he was reined in. He was a brand new rookie. Like those first four weeks, the split from there, from how they utilized him the rest of the season you're talking about the first four weeks would have been a pace of 2 ,800 passing yards to the the rest of the season would have been a pace of 4 ,000 passing yards

45:43Mike Wright:yeah I mean it is definitely I think I think you're not going to be happy if he doesn't take a step forward or at least continue that second half pace like you're talking about I mean you need him to take a step forward to be drafted you know are you going to be happy you want Baker at the top of the seventh you want Bo at the back you've been a Bo Nix guy I've been the Baker guy in that round.

46:02Jason Moore:I think Baker is the safer option. Baker is not going to come out and fall on his face for fantasy completely. Bo Nix could absolutely fall on his face. He could see J. Stroud. Yeah, he could see J. Stroud.

46:12Mike Wright:Because the running game could work better.

46:13Jason Moore:So he's a riskier pick, but I still think I would rather have him. His rushing upside, the fact that he could level up as a... The difference in fantasy, you look last year between Jaden Daniels and Bo Nix, is not as drastic as you think, but you look at where Jaden Daniels is being drafted and where Bo Nix is being drafted, it is vastly different. So I'll take the shot on Bo Nix. He's a perfect quarterback to pair with another risky Anthony Richardson later and just hope that you see that year two step forward, not step back, in a great system with weapons. And the fact that now he's got someone to check the ball down to and the receiver, he passed a lot of passes to Javante Williams, who then did jack squat with it.

46:55Jason Moore:And now R.J. Harvey out of the backfield as a pass catcher, I think will be really tremendous.

47:00Mike Wright:And Evan Ingram has arrived. Yeah. Who you hate. We'll take a break. We'll get into the top five.

47:11Mike Wright:I will say this about Bo Nix. If he ends up, if this is a solid fantasy year, this is household name territory at this point. You know what I mean? Like if he goes out there and the Broncos perform, because they're, you know, they're one of those teams that's like a little bit of a dark horse Super Bowl threat, I think with that defense and Bo Nix and you know you're talking about kind of a stalwart in fantasy for a decade to come if he can go out there and do it in year two all right moving on number five Jaden Daniels comes in at number five after the five overall finish as a rookie that rushing number that he's able to put up it's a great weekly floor you've got those numbers at the top of the show you know the top quarterback has 20 plus percent of their fantasy points coming from rushing the football that puts him in contention to finish it our or at quarterback one yeah qbrb one so it you know we know what he brings to the table the schedule is going to get a little more difficult this year but i mean the top tier finishes that you get from him 38 of the time

48:15Jason Moore:i hope terry comes back yeah i mean the the the trade demand from terry mccorin matters a lot for Jaden Daniels as of right now we believe Terry McLaurin will sign a contract with the commanders and you know and then it won't matter and if that happens you're talking about a pretty good upgrade here to his weapons adding Debo Samuel you know he really did not have another player to throw the ball to last year hopefully Ben Sinnott can also step forward and you like Jalen Lane? I do. I think Jalen Lane is a name that we haven't brought up enough. He's a rookie coming in really talented, has looked good in camp.

48:59Jason Moore:So that's certainly a name worth talking about when we talk about Jaden Daniels.

49:04Mike Wright:Yep, Zach Ertz still in the mix around the goal line where he was very effective last year. And, you know, the potential is there for Jaden Daniels to cement himself again, just like Bo Nix is the next fantasy star for the 10 years.

49:20Jason Moore:Everything that I was talking about with Kyler where it's like I want him to take off and run whenever there's that little blink moment of, oh, there's open field. I could just go get the first down right now. Jaden Daniels does that. I salivate at Bo Nix's 92 rushing attempts. That's awesome. Jaden Daniels had 148 rushing attempts, and it's not all because of designed runs. It's because, oh, look, field. Watch what I can do. over and over and over so he is he's a risky pick for those top guys because he costs a lot but i don't think bo nicks has overall quarterback one potential jayden could easily do that can

49:57Mike Wright:easily he's a he is the quarterback three off the board though in the third round we have him ranked at five so from a value perspective that's where you need to look that's where you need to

50:07Jason Moore:look at the upside uh meter in the udk and combine that with the ranking yeah number four

50:15Mike Wright:Joe Burrow comes in at number four. You know, we saw it all out there last season. No defense. Everything in his hands. Utilizing Chase Brown like Austin Eckler. Jamar Chase with the Triple Crown season. T. Higgins. Jamar Chase back on the contracts. I don't know what to do with Joe Burrow. Number one quarterback.

50:36Jason Moore:I don't know what to do with him. What was that sentence? I don't know what to do with Joe Burrow. when I finished my initial pass at my rankings do you know where Joe Burrow was for me I think

50:47Mike Wright:very high how about quarterback one which is what he was from week nine on last year yeah I mean this

50:53Jason Moore:is this is maybe the best quarterback in the NFL combined with a bad defense and the best weapons he is what Mahomes used to have to be exactly that's what he is right now he's in the Mahomes

51:06Mike Wright:phase of his career where you're 250 plus three touchdowns every week no matter what and it what's funny is joe burrow's never had an offseason you go back literally this is the first time joe burrow has been healthy during an offseason and during a training camp time bangles fans go knock on wood this is the first time it's ever happened and he's going into year six so that's pretty wild

51:29Jason Moore:yeah and they and they uh i think the i think the patrick mahomes thing you're bringing up is a really good way to look at it. It makes me more comfortable with him. It does. If you were to swap Mahomes and Burrow right now, teams, I would love Patrick Mahomes. If you're telling me he's playing on a team with no defense, and he's got T. Higgins and Jamar Chase and Chase Brown out of the backfield, go get him. That's what Joe Burrow is right now. Fourth round, QB4. I had to lower him in my rankings because I would never take him personally over the four mobile rushing quarterbacks and so it was he was too high and I just don't like spending I mean you look at Baker versus Joe Burrow and you go okay what's the gap there Baker just threw for you know 40 touchdowns and well over 4 ,000 yards is very similar to Burrow the problem of putting Burrow on your team right now is that Jalen Hurts is a fourth round pick too yeah and you know you ended up with

52:28Mike Wright:Jalen Hurts in your most recent mock.

52:31Jason Moore:And I took him over Joe Burrow, and I did that with T. Higgins on the roster.

52:36Mike Wright:Well, that's what I was going to say. That would be the differentiator to me. If I'm sitting in the fourth round and I had Higgins or Chase, I'm taking Burrow over Hurts. I'm just going to do that because I like having a good time.

52:46Jason Moore:The stack is so fun with Burrow.

52:47Mike Wright:I like that's the most fun time you can have. Yeah, that's fair. So I would do that. But, again, I will highlight, look, you're a 200-yard rusher at best. So if you don't throw 40, you're not happy with where you draft Joe Burrow. He's so expensive for a pocket passer. He's just a good bet to throw 40, as good a bet of any money. Of any money. Of any money, bunny, bunny. He's as good of a bet as anybody. Number three. There is Jalen Hurts. Jalen Hurts is kind of a machine. And, you know, he was a quarterback nine last year, missed two games. Obviously, it was Saquon's incredible season, right?

53:36Mike Wright:You depended on Saquon. The defense is fabulous. That's one of the bigger points against Jalen Hurts is the defense is so good that you need to do your damage in the first half, or you did last year. but there is a lot of margin for the passing volume to go up for the knee you know for jalen hurts to need to throw it more and then he has the weapons to do it so you know it's not 2022 where he's 25 points a game he's been at 21 for three of the last four years that's what you can

54:07Jason Moore:kind of expect from jalen hurts and that's great yeah that's fine and and he is not going to cost you a second round pick like josh allen but he won't be too far away from josh allen and in fantasy points like if I had to get a second round running back and Jalen Hurts versus a fourth round running back and Josh Allen I will clearly take the Jalen Hurts side so I think roster construction fantasy football strategy that matters a lot Jalen Hurts is pretty much a lock for 10 rushing touchdowns the tush push has gone nowhere and when I say a lock for 10 it's probably a lock for 15 rushing touchdowns I you know we don't know Saquon scares me on both sides right because obviously if If he does what he did last year and get close to breaking the rushing yardage record and go out there and run the ball for 2 ,000 yards, that's going to hurt Jalen Hurts.

54:57Jason Moore:But at the same time, that workload he had at his age, if Saquon were to go out and get injured and you've got to throw the ball more, the passing work really can go up this year despite having a good defense. So I just like talented players. Jalen Hurts is talented. He's got a great receiving core. I wish their defense wasn't as good, but I'm totally down taking Jalen Hurts. Number two.

55:22Mike Wright:Well, I've got him at one. Mike has him at one. Jason at three. So he comes in at two in our consensus rankings. It's Josh Allen, also a machine.

55:32Jason Moore:Excellent.

55:33Mike Wright:The stallion himself. He is the QB one off the board in ADP right now. He is the most consistent thing in fantasy football possible at quarterback. you've seen it for six full years now the last four even with the the the James Cook explosion the rushing game the change in philosophies he's still barely barely underneath his points per game of his number one overall finish in 2023 he was the MVP of football and so he's expensive right he's going to be a late second round pick if you want him you got to spend up starts the year against Baltimore and the Jets on the road but Josh Allen is just he's very very safe he's

56:16Jason Moore:just not he's just not a value yeah that's the I mean I it's funny I can't imagine drafting Josh Allen in fantasy football right now I would love to have Josh Allen in fantasy football I just don't want to sacrifice a second round pick so again pay attention to your draft if if your league is is pushing quarterbacks a little bit later another round or two go ahead and grab Josh Allen you when he becomes a value when there's a drop-off in the elite running back and wide receivers. I personally can't see taking him over Lamar Jackson. I think that if you look at how Lamar Jackson has leveled up in his system and how Josh Allen has leveled down in his system, just from a statistic accumulation standpoint, we know the Bills really, really, really want to run the ball.

57:06Jason Moore:And they've done that. Like Josh Allen threw for 3 ,700 yards this last year. The new system has really incentivized that. He doesn't have great weapons. You know, Lamar Jackson, I think he's going to throw for 4 ,000. Josh Allen has gone down in that category. The rushing yardage, you're talking about Josh Allen being at, you know, mid-500s probably, whereas Lamar Jackson could push 1 ,000 or should be in the 800s.

57:37Mike Wright:Yeah, I mean, Allen's going to have double-digit rushing touchdowns. That's not something that Lamar is guaranteed to have. I will say this, like the bust rate for Josh Allen went way, way up last year. So even though the fantasy finish was pretty good, points per game was pretty good, he had a 25 % bust rate, which was the highest since his rookie year, and way higher than the year before, which was only 6 % of the time. So even though the great was great, you definitely had a drop-off at times. whereas Lamar number one Lamar Jackson was with Baker as 50 % of the time finishing in the top six at the position that is he was so good that that's delightful and he was the second highest points per game of his career going back to his MVP season in 2019 which was 27.7 per game last year was 25.3 per game he is also drafted behind Josh Allen by you know a few picks at least and it was his most consistent fantasy season of all time 16 finishes in the top

58:40Jason Moore:12 that was that was the weird thing and I I want to make sure that we don't just see what he did

58:46Mike Wright:last year and project that for this year on Lamar like we did in 2019 to 2020 yeah I can't imagine

58:52Jason Moore:that it is this consistent he's never really been the most consistent he's got those massive boom games now I don't know if having Derek Henry there you know making defenders stack the box is that what really changed things for Lamar if so great let's let's keep that going but also similar to Jalen Hurts if you've got a guy that's rushing for 2 ,000 yards that could end up taking some of his work down but the the rushing lanes were open for him he's going to run for over 750 yards so he's not going to have a bad fantasy season at all these guys are safe just don't I still wouldn't draft one of these guys over the elite running back or wide receivers if they're

59:30Mike Wright:still on the board yeah no it makes sense and uh if you have a late round quarterback to throw out as the countdown comes to a close Mike wanted us to mention Justin Fields yeah for sure he loves

59:41Jason Moore:Justin Fields who has always been good for fantasy even the first four or the first six weeks last

59:47Mike Wright:year he was pretty good for fantasy for me it's Jordan Love 11th round you know borderline free quarterback he could go nearly undrafted in your league has finished at qb5 before love the ensemble love the packers opportunities this year to be a difference making team so jordan loves my late

1:00:06Jason Moore:round guy for me it's drake may uh he showed enough flashes he is a player that i think could go out there and rush for 500 yards level up in year two he adds stefan diggs um i think the the receiving core is going to be better and Vrabel is going to have a much better team and system

1:00:26Mike Wright:than what Drake may had last year all right that is it for today's episode ice and fire Mike right back in the building tomorrow another mock draft this week and a bunch of great shows as we get you ready for the 2025 NFL season which is coming quickly a one more reminder check out ultimate at draftkit.com. Pick up the UDK with the new Value Scout tool and the draft analyzer and get yourself ready to make your friends look stupid on draft day. Goodbye, everybody. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

1:01:13Thank you.