Fantasy Football - Top 10 RB Rankings + Trash Talkers - Podcast for 8/12

8:44Andy Holloway:It's going to be a tough. This is how good my team is. Other people will talk garbage for me. That's what I just did, didn't I?

8:51Mike Wright:I'm your co-man. My team's name in that league right now is Mike's Butt.

8:56Jason Moore:Yeah. Because in our league, the winner gets to name the last place team, and current placeholder is Mike's Butt.

9:03Mike Wright:That's fine. Mike, you and Mike was like the silver medalist a couple of times. He was on. We were taunting with that when we had two titles.

9:12Jason Moore:All right. Anyways. Look, we're this far in. I hate this. What a stupid question that has got us now talking about Mike's team. But I would never do that. People are going to want to know.

9:22Mike Wright:My team only has Gibbs, Walker, Hampton, CD, Amon Ra in our League of Records. And then like a bunch of picks.

9:28Jason Moore:So here's Mike's team. He's got Joe Burrow and Jared Goff with Flacco behind Burrow. This is his dynasty team. Christian McCaffrey. So you got age here, McCaffrey and Derrick Henry. Yeah. And Ken Bone Walker and Jamar Chase and CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Jordan Mason probably, right? Yeah, and Rico.

9:48Andy Holloway:And all three insurance running backs.

9:50Jason Moore:Yeah, and you got Pat Bryant who's been the – Oh, bro, Pat Bryant? Mm-hmm. And Garrett Wilson. This is the best show we've ever done. And Dontavian Wicks. Oh, and Trey McBride. Oh, yeah. Wait, did you say Loveland? He has McBride? Oh, you have Loveland, too. Oh, my gosh. This is disgusting. I'm quitting this league. I don't like this league.

10:10Mike Wright:You have McBride and Loveland.

10:12Andy Holloway:All of my picks. All of them.

10:15Mike Wright:You never traded anyway? No, no. This is the greatest constructed roster. I hate everything. Cheers, everybody. We cannot do this show anymore. No, I'm out. Let's move on.

10:29Jason Moore:News and notes from around the league.

10:35Mike Wright:The NFL Network, Ian Rappaport, talking about the fact Pukunakua is dealing with minor soreness he had left with a trainer. It's in his groin. It's been a bad, bad week for groins. As Jason would say, just do a butterfly stretch.

10:53Jason Moore:Someone teaches dudes how to butterfly stretch. That's obviously what's missing.

10:57Andy Holloway:You sit on your butt. You bring your feet together, and it looks like you got two little butterfly wings. Yeah, you've lost me.

11:03Mike Wright:They don't know what that is. There's no way.

11:05Andy Holloway:High concept.

11:06Mike Wright:Emeka Abuka limped off with trainers, and that was today.

11:10Andy Holloway:Yeah, this is like 20 minutes ago.

11:13Mike Wright:He's watching the rest of practice with his cleats off. No other reports. If we get one before the end of the day, we'll let you know.

11:19Andy Holloway:I do like that the follow was Abuka with both cleats off.

11:24Jason Moore:Yeah. Thank you for specifying both of them.

11:26Andy Holloway:I mean I guess if you have one off you think maybe it's just that's the leg, that's the ankle I don't know, it's just a funny report

11:34Mike Wright:Mike Evans did return to practice with the quad injury and J.K. Dobbins returned to practice, well returned to individual drills

11:41Andy Holloway:yes

11:44Jason Moore:nothing to see here no everything's fine

11:48Mike Wright:yeah, good luck J.K. stay healthy today should be fun, we're counting down the top 10 running backs All of our consensus rankings, player projections, sleepers, breakouts, bust values are in the UDK at ultimatedraftkit.com. Let's go ahead and jump right in.

12:10Jason Moore:Running backs.

12:13Mike Wright:All right. What makes a top 10 running back in fantasy? Since 2015, among those finishing in the top 10, 79 % average 19 or more opportunities per game. That was part of your discussion with Hampton yesterday, trying to get to that number. 72 % of top 10 running backs saw at least 50 targets. You want to be involved in the passing game.

12:35Jason Moore:And the 28 % is named Derrick Henry.

12:38Mike Wright:It feels like, yeah, that's pretty much it. And then 94 % of top five running backs had 10 or more total touchdowns. So that's a huge number. That's nearly everyone always 10 or more total touchdowns. you would have to be basically eclair levels of like receiving work i mean 94 that's like

12:56Jason Moore:if you want to be you gotta you have to have the touchdown upside and that's in the last

13:01Mike Wright:11 years so you're talking about a long like a lot a large sample yeah i mean that that's why

13:07Jason Moore:we prefer uh you know players on good teams teams that are going to win are going to score more points and it's not always the case but you you really need 10 touchdowns the average if you just average out the last 10 years it's 20 opportunities 255 rushing attempts 1182 yards so you don't have

13:31Mike Wright:to lead the league in rushing by any stretch 10.5 rushing touchdowns 68 targets 53 catches 436 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns 2.7 um before we move on i i just i figured i'd

13:46Jason Moore:look this up since we were just talking you you need 10 touchdowns here is the current uh sportsbook top five for 10 or more rushing touchdowns oh nice number one jameer gibbs yeah uh has the highest odds to get 10 touchdowns ahead of derrick henry who's number two Jonathan Taylor number 3 James Cook number 4 and number 5 Kyron Williams I did that whole bit to get to Kyron Williams yeah they're a good team

14:21Andy Holloway:if you're going to do the top you've got to do the top 5

14:23Jason Moore:right yeah of course

14:25Mike Wright:number 6 Blake Corr no I'm just kidding who's number 6 6 is Javante

14:31Jason Moore:Williams okay I mean that says

14:33Mike Wright:something yeah he doesn't he'll have the targets the yards will be like 112 yeah it's it's i mean it's worth noting

14:40Jason Moore:you know the debate at 101 of gibbs versus bijon we haven't said bijon's name and that to me is the

14:47Andy Holloway:i have moved gibbs ahead yeah so i'm i think we're fully unanimous now if gibbs should be the first

14:54Mike Wright:pick number 10 uh by the way josh allen is at 11 and a half rushing touchdowns yeah he would be

15:01Jason Moore:third on this list as far as odds to get to 10.

15:04Mike Wright:Chase Brown at number 10. Jason and Mike have him at eight. I have him at 11. I love Chase Brown as well. It's just how it broke down. He is a perfect situation for Cincinnati, I think, with Chase Brown being their back. He's been so consistent the last two years. Just look at the points per game numbers, 14.3, 14.6. there have been reports in camp of him lining up in the slot more he is a pass catcher he is not a triple b right he's not a big body back he's not gonna but that's that's what i'm saying for

15:40Andy Holloway:cincinnati it's awesome because he's right in that he's 5 10 210 is what i see listed like that is 210 to 215 is truly a you can take it's like that's the perfect weight where you can be agile enough to work in the receiving game and you're still big enough to go between the tackles. Chase Brown.

15:59Mike Wright:He only had five games last year in the 17 where he scored a rushing touchdown.

16:03Jason Moore:Yes, that is true. But obviously the team environment to be able to score a lot of touchdowns, double digit touchdowns, the Bengals would be there. I mean, here's the nice thing. You have to remember last year how bad the beginning of the season was for the Bengals. Burrow got off to a slow start, got injured, and then they didn't have Flacco until week six. so that team environment you know chase brown a lot of people are like ah he's just a product of the team environment and maybe that's fine because the team environment is fantastic and now joe flacco is the backup so should burrow go down we saw chase brown be fine with flacco if you look at flacco from week six on you've got a chase brown chase brown from the flacco weeks um you You know, that would be he was on pace for 1 ,200 yards, seven rushing touchdowns, 93 targets with seven receiving touchdowns.

16:57Jason Moore:He was better than the running back eight finish that he had last year. And that's pretty darn good. Chase Brown is he's one of my favorite picks in fantasy.

17:11Andy Holloway:The I like I think he is a talented running back, but the situation is is just so perfect. He does, like he's not, you know, that the, like McCaffrey Gibbs Bijon player where if, if everything goes terrible for the Bengals, it will, I don't think Chase Brown can overcome that, but they're, they're set up in a, such a situation of this year where they're more protected than ever there. Andy, you said that they're talking about lining up in the slot. We like hearing that little news blurb. They're also talking just in an emphasis of this year, as it seems like more and more teams are now, is, okay, we're going to get back to under center.

17:51Andy Holloway:We want more explosive runs from Chase Brown, who was already a pretty explosive player from that week six on. When Joe Flacco kind of fixed the offense through the ending with Burrow, Chase Brown's running for 5.1 a carry. He was already a very efficient running back on the ground during that time.

18:09Mike Wright:320 opportunities last year are you perfectly comfortable with him as your rb yes 100 yeah

18:17Andy Holloway:you want to start with a high level wide elite wide receiver and then come back and get chase

18:22Jason Moore:brown that that's like my favorite my favorite start when you're in the middle to late if you can get almond rawst brown um you know or sometimes jsn goes fourth but assuming that almond raw goes as the fourth wide receiver gone and come back around and grab chase brown I adore that start. I mean, the depth chart around him is just, it's a 30-year-old Samaj Pirine is the backup. And then it's Taj Brooks. There's no one else here to compete. He has matrix-dodged the last few drafts. The free agent market, yeah.

18:56Mike Wright:The only kind of negative about Chase Brown, his red zone success rate has been bad. 13 carries inside the five two years ago, only six touchdowns on the 13 carries. And that's inside the five. 13 carries inside the five last year, only four rushing touchdowns. 31 % of those converted. The most opposite compared to number nine. Derek Henry. Forever and always. The Yeti. I didn't realize how low I have him. Interesting. He comes in at nine.

19:27Jason Moore:I guess I have him at ADP. Yeah, I don't blame you for having him there. I've got him at running back six, and I don't. I got him at 12. I don't love it. I mean, there's tons of risk. uh d 'angelo williams was the last running back to be 32 years old or older with 10 rushing touchdowns it's it's not an easy feat and this i know he's a yeti but guys he's actually a human

19:50Mike Wright:being yeah i mean it's i've heard there are there are some changes right the offense is is changing we have a new system in place we'll see what that becomes mike you got him at seven his sleeper adp is RB12 so you get him late round two that that seems great I mean I'd it's where I have him ranked I would take him at ADP with no no qualms I mean he was the running back three the running

20:18Jason Moore:back two missed half a season as the running back 16 then the running back four then the running back eight then the running back two then the running back seven it's like he is just a top 10 running back every year of his career the only question the only thing is did father time catch up and that's the if he if it hasn't and it let me read the concerns on the top 10 ranking

20:40Mike Wright:shows that we've had for him over the last five years so in 2021 we said he uh he has a lack of targets which so i was true 2021 in 2022 we said um the age was starting to become a concern in 2023 that's a long time ago age and wear and tear in 2024 we said age in 2025 um fifth season in a row basically with an age concern yeah it's the frank gore now it did it did end up happening at some point in time they do if you want to look at a way it kind of slows i don't think it goes to nothing that's where i think the pick is fine you've got a new offensive system and you've got an offensive line that just lost like we talked about genti they picked up tyler linden bomb he's gone they lost their all pro fullback in ricard gone they lost their tight end charlie Kohler got a big contract to go to Los Angeles.

21:35Mike Wright:They lost Isaiah Likely. They're the 26th ranked offensive line. He's not going to have 50 plus receptions. That would be maybe things could slow a little bit, but they're projected to win a bunch of games. And when they win,

21:55Andy Holloway:you win. Derrick Henry scores a ton of points. The way to stop Henry is you hit the train before it starts going. So if the offensive line is not giving him some room to at least get a couple steps to get up to speed then things may not be so great. It's really just age. Do you want to bet that this is the year that Henry falls off? Then avoid him.

22:20Mike Wright:It just feels like at ADP that would be a fallout. If at the end of the year you're like Henry finished at RB12, you're like

22:27Jason Moore:crap, but that's where you're drafting him. The thing is I don't think that there's a world where he finishes as it's 12. He's going to finish like 18 and it didn't happen. He got eight touchdowns or he's going to finish it eight or better. The question I have is if you're at that point in the draft and you're not drafting your first running back, would you rather pair your first running back with Derrick Henry or like Jeremiah Love? The complete opposites. I'd rather

22:58Mike Wright:pair your first running back with Henry every time. I just feel like it's so solid.

23:04Andy Holloway:And Henry has historically, as the temperatures drop, he does transform into the Yeti as it gets cold.

23:13Mike Wright:And that's science. That's not like a bit. No, no.

23:16Andy Holloway:The bit is, is it snowing in Vermont? Right. Because that's like Groundhog Day. I don't know.

23:22Mike Wright:People probably don't notice. We sometimes we goof around. This is science. but I'm saying

23:30Andy Holloway:so I know that at the halfway point or whatever of the year Derrick Henry will hit transformation three and then he'll just start dominating again but the first six matchups for the Baltimore Ravens favorite favorite favorite favorite favorite favorite

23:48Jason Moore:it's not just favorite favorite favorite but these aren't great defenses Colts Saints Cowboys Titans Falcons oh my

23:57Mike Wright:Yeah, it should be fine. All right, we'll take a break and we'll continue the countdown.

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25:24Mike Wright:Built for you.

25:32Mike Wright:Before we continue the countdown, when we say this is science, we want to read this to you. Yards per attempt for Derrick Henry. September? 4.31. October. There's a little crisp in the air. 4.78.

25:47Jason Moore:Oh, now it's getting chilly.

25:50Mike Wright:Put on a windbreaker. Put on a jacket. December, 5.26. January, 6.09. That's not how age works, brother.

26:04Jason Moore:Yeah.

26:05Mike Wright:That's how a freak of nature works.

26:08Jason Moore:It's how tackling a car works.

26:12Andy Holloway:If I have to tackle a car, I'd rather not be freezing.

26:15Mike Wright:Give me a car in September. It's like the season is a hill and he picks up speed. That's how it seems. So that's the data. He does get better over time. The team also just starts riding him when the weather gets bad.

26:30Jason Moore:It always feels like to start the year they're like, we're going to try to open this up, and then by the end of the year they're like, we should just keep giving the ball to Henry.

26:38Mike Wright:Jacoby Lane, you know, is probably going to take over the entire league. He's the only player I got on that dynasty team of mine. number eight ashton jenty comes in at number eight just 22 years old i got him at seven jason at seven mike at 11 he is the rb6 by adp i can't believe i'm below adp on ashton jenty adp is a bummer that's i mean you you are um you got to get a great performance from jenty for that first round draft capital we know the workload's going to be there we know the upgrade in play calling is there with clint kubiak we know they added tyler lindenbaum the aforementioned all pro center from baltimore that is there to help solidify an offensive line you certainly i think have um a lot of reasons to like like what you've seen from genti so far efficiency wise they weren't good numbers as a rookie but he had so much volume and that those things are not necessarily really sticky.

27:38Mike Wright:I think the upside of Jinty is pretty high. I mean, I don't think that Jinty, I think he could finish as the RB1. I mean, I think that's possible for Ash and Jinty with the targets. His target totals, we all have them above 65 targets on the year. That fits the threshold. We all have them about or above double-digit touchdowns. That fits the threshold. and we all have the opportunities pretty high. I just – Yeah, so the – It doesn't mean that I think he'll be number one. It's just certain guys can do it, certain guys can't.

28:12Jason Moore:Yeah, the negative – the biggest negative is that he's on a poor team that does not project to score a ton of points. And so that's – are you going to get the double-digit touchdowns, that one that 94 % of these top 10 backs get? It's a hard environment to see it happening. Now, as a reminder, he had 10 touchdowns last year. So he had five receiving, five rushing. He is a freak of nature talent-wise. I do think that this offense will be significantly better. The combination of Clint Kubiak and the offensive line upgrades. And the health of Brock Bowers. And Kirk Cousins coming in to start as far as dumping off the ball.

28:52Jason Moore:I mean, you saw when Bijan was there with Kirk Cousins, he was thriving in the passing game. to me I think be I I'm I'm very in on Ashton Jenty unfortunately seems like everybody is and so that's where the ADP is at running back six that's kind of I mean I've got him as my running back seven so I think you're you're drafting him where he kind of belongs I don't necessarily think it's an easy path for him to finish top three he's talented 73 targets last year over 50 receptions yeah I mean he's he's certainly talented enough I you know I agree

29:28Mike Wright:with you he could be they want to throw the ball to who else can you it's brock bowers and jenty that's it i mean so mike has them a little bit lower i think mike has brought up with whether it's a chan whether it's jenty like you don't want a running back on a losing team but yeah

29:46Jason Moore:you know certain ones can thrive those two players to me are the like you you i i went and i compared those two guys next to each other. And my interpretation was that I think that the Raiders offense will be improved versus last year, and the Dolphins offense will be worse than it was last year. Wow. And then when I look at the – That's bad. Yeah, yeah. And then when I look at the talent of both guys, both outrageously talented, I think Ashton Gentry is the better, more talented running back. Now that's where the debate is. Yeah, it's funny.

30:22Mike Wright:I have them ranked the same. I probably disagree on those two points. I think HN's the better back, better receiver, and I think the Dolphins will be a pretty okay offense relative to Las Vegas. But we both know that JNT's going to get a workload, and it's hard to get guaranteed 300-plus opportunities.

30:40Andy Holloway:It is. You have the issue, too, of Fernando Mendoza is just waiting to take over. Like, could he be better than Kirk Cousins? Yeah, that is a variable. but just historically it's hard to make a transition to being a professional quarterback they don't come in and put up a a whole bunch of stats especially you know when it comes to touchdowns so there's a chance that halfway through the year the offense gets worse as they're trying to acclimate Mendoza and look uh look forward to 2027 the opening schedule cupcake Miami that's fantastic but then it's the chargers saints okay but chiefs at patriots at home against buffalo like that this is an absolute this is this is a horrifically bad opening schedule for the raiders and i guess jay my my question for you is because i'm actually he's a great player but historically you one of your philosophies is you want to know for sure your first rounder is going to work.

31:45Andy Holloway:Yeah, it's safe. Exactly, it's safe. Because everyone in the first round has massive upside. They wouldn't be in the first round if they didn't. But Ashton Gentry feels very unsafe to me compared to the other guys there.

31:59Jason Moore:I would agree that he is a riskier pick at that point. Where I've taken Ashton Gentry in drafts is oftentimes at the beginning of the second round. And so then it's totally fine.

32:13Andy Holloway:yeah so you don't think he's safe i do not i don't i don't think the environment is safe

32:18Mike Wright:at all you're a big kubiak fan though right i am yeah i like what they did with the line i think i think he's a safe pick it's you have to decide between a bunch of guys in this range that and that's the issue for me is but i mean i don't think hampton feels safe i feel it feels exciting

32:34Andy Holloway:i feel safer in the environment of of the chargers being a top 10 scoring offense yeah yeah like versus the Raiders feel like they'll probably be a bottom 10.

32:44Jason Moore:It's funny because it's like Chase Brown feels safer.

32:48Andy Holloway:Yes, he does to me.

32:50Jason Moore:But I guess what you're doing here when you draft Gentry is you're taking your percentage chance at the running back one overall. That's what you're signing up for. You're getting a guy who can. I don't think Chase Brown would be the running back one overall. Gentry has that kind of built-in talent.

33:07Mike Wright:He was the RB12 last year, and I don't know if I saw a worse situation for a running back in the league. I mean, the worst team in the league, the worst quarterback in the league.

33:18Jason Moore:The worst coordinators in the league. The worst offensive line coaches in the league last year.

33:23Mike Wright:All of it was terrible. I just think the volume will outpace it, but that's why the debate's fun. Now you're back. Okay. Is this guy safe? Number seven. Don't care. It's Ken Bone Walker. Not safe. So funny because he's, you know, I think he's very safe.

33:44Andy Holloway:I think he is. He's very safe. But I think his volume is way safer than people are really thinking.

33:51Mike Wright:Oh, I thought you were going to say the NGente. I was like, that's crazy.

33:53Andy Holloway:No, no, no, no. But I'm saying, like, I think he's going to be an incredibly high volume player. You can go to the health, which, I mean, in terms of games played, he's really only had one year that was a major bummer. His rookie and sophomore year, he played 15 games. If a running back misses two games, that's considered totally normal. 11 in 2024, okay, that's an injury problem, and then he plays the whole year last year. Obviously, it felt like the opportunities were being throttled with Zach Charbonnet coming in, but they gave him the cash. I have zero concerns about Kenneth Walker. They immediately went to go get him, and all reports coming out of training camp for what this team, the identity of this team, how much they're going to lean on Ken Walker, and in the receiving game as well.

34:46Andy Holloway:Walker at 209 is theft, in my opinion.

34:52Mike Wright:Mahomes back. Great offensive line. No threat in the red zone. No threat in the passing game. Maybe Brashard Smith takes some opportunities, whatever. The identity of the team is built around Kenneth Walker now. If he can just, you know.

35:08Andy Holloway:When Andy Reid has a true stud. Stay healthy, he's going to be a monster. When Andy Reid has a stud at the running back position, their workhorse. Yeah. Like, that's what he does. He hasn't had a stud for years.

35:19Jason Moore:They're going to give him absolutely everything. He is very safe. He is. So here's my view of Walker. Absolute monster. I agree with you, Mike. Steel of a draft at the back of the second. The back of the second for a guy who's going to get all the work for a team that's going to win a ton of games. Who is very talented with a great offensive line, everything. With a top 10 offensive line. He is every single check mark perfect across the board, and I'm just waiting to see how it doesn't work. That's how it feels because somehow, someway every year, whether it's injuries.

36:01Andy Holloway:People are agreeing with that.

36:02Jason Moore:He played the entire season last year for the Super Bowl champs. He's the running back 22. Somehow, someway, I feel like he's just built to disappoint. But how? I don't know how. I don't know how it's going to happen.

36:16Mike Wright:I honestly think it's just going to be fine. I think it'll be something that we look back at the beginning of Ken Walker's career with all those question marks. And I've gotten to the point where I'm like, I can't find the pathway where it doesn't work out other than injury, which is everybody's pathway to not work out. So he's going to be awesome. Agreed. Number six. All right. This guy ends up ahead of him because of me, I think. Yes. This is one of the flag plants that my numbers bore out. Mike, what are you doing over there? I just, I hate.

36:47Andy Holloway:You hit your ranking? I hate everything about this situation. It's Devon Achan. Because Achan is awesome.

36:53Mike Wright:Devon Achan, I have him at four. I got him as my running back four. You guys at 10 and nine, being drafted at eight.

37:02Mike Wright:Obviously, I can't escape the talent and the volume that I think we're going to see. I like Malik Willis. I think the offense will get some stuff done. There was a really funny clip, I think two days ago, with his head coach. Yeah. saying he's going to give him 40 to 45 opportunities a game. That he will literally not let him tap his head to come off the field.

37:21Jason Moore:That he will carry him back to the sideline after 40 carries a game. You can't dream as a fantasy football manager for any coach to say anything better because there was no sarcasm. I mean, obviously it was hyperbolic, but he's literally telling us the truth, which is he gets everything. He's the center of the offense.

37:43Mike Wright:Yeah, this is a situation where I'm just, everybody has to pick their players that they're in on. And you can always create storylines of why you believe or don't believe. This is one where I believe the fantasy community is making a horrible mistake in doubting the production of Devon H. And by carving out a bunch of reasons why it might not work for Miami. 100 % of his games last year on a horrible team, he was above 10.5 fantasy points. That is the best, most consistent running back that you had in football. the identity of this team the talent of this player is just one where i'm like i think we're going to screw up over analyzing what can go wrong and not recognizing how many opportunities this

38:24Jason Moore:player is going to have over the course of the year yeah i i have him lower and he can score at any minute like yeah i mean he is a gibbs level he's a gibbs level talent to me yeah he's he's awesome i would love to have a chan on my roster i where i i still like where i have him ranked at 10, which is obviously well behind you, I won't end up with a lot of him simply because I think when push comes to shove and I'm deciding between these running backs we're talking about, all of these guys, the Gentier HN, the Walker HN, the Chase Brown or HN, I'm going to end up with those other guys over HN, and I could be making that terrible mistake like a lot of people are making that you're predicting, Andy.

39:07Jason Moore:My rationale for that is the last two years, no one has thrown the ball to the running back more than Tua. You lose Tua. You then replace him with a quarterback who can scramble and have mobility. They're still going to throw the ball a lot to HM, but I would expect he gets fewer targets in the passing game than he had with McDaniel and Tua. So if that comes down a little bit, and like I just said a minute ago, I think their offense is worse this year than it was last year, losing Waddle. Obviously, you've got McDaniel, Waddle. Just noise, man. Just noise. Just noise, sure. In my estimation.

39:41Mike Wright:Like, remember when Cam Newton couldn't throw to running backs? Right.

39:44Jason Moore:No, that's what I said. He's going to get a lot of targets. But are you saying you think Malik Willis will, without Mike McDaniel, Malik Willis will target HN more this year?

39:53Mike Wright:I think he'll get the same amount of targets. I mean, we weren't talking about 105 Eckler targets. We're talking about 85 targets. Yeah, I think he'll get 85 targets. You said they don't have Waddle? Where do targets go?

40:05Jason Moore:Vacated targets from wide receivers often go to running backs.

40:08Mike Wright:So I'm just saying, like, to me it's noise. I'm not saying what you're saying is invalid at all. I'm saying to me these are things that I think will get me a discount on him. For you it won't be a discount because you won't have him. It's just a flag plant for me on the talent.

40:21Jason Moore:Where is he going ADP-wise? Is he ahead of the early second? Okay, so just as far as running backs go. It's right.

40:30Andy Holloway:For me the hard part is it's right next to Chase Brown. Hampton, Chase Brown, Walker. And I prefer Chase Brown.

40:35Jason Moore:Yeah, Hampton, Chase Brown, Walker going behind him. That'll be tough. I mean, yeah, obviously incredible talent. Where did he finish last year? Six. Okay.

40:47Andy Holloway:With his best points per game of his career. He had 12 touchdowns.

40:52Mike Wright:Yeah, yeah. I mean, the nice thing about him, he's exactly like Gibbs where on any play, even if they're upper, I mean, he had so many late fourth quarter games put out of reach, goes and scores from 65 yards. To me, he got paid. I mean, nobody talks about this. the commitment to him he's their face of the franchise and then you go listen to the coach

41:13Andy Holloway:talk i hate that i can't argue yeah like anything you're saying like yeah no those are all on the

41:19Jason Moore:those are all true things on the plus and the negative side everything is true uh the the one maybe tiebreaker when i'm looking at this is if he does get like 30 touches a game which would be outrageous he's 191 pounds i mean he's probably heavier now 30 but my my point is like there's also he's under he's he's undersized to be a you know a carry an entire team for two seasons in a

41:45Mike Wright:row so all right moving on number five james cook just keeps getting better 12.4 fantasy points per game up to 15 up to 16.8 last year i mean and he feels like he gets no respect even even in my heart I think we got there. I think we got there. He's there for me mentally. He's elite tier. We are number five, number five, number four. He's got to let it wash over you. I mean, he's being drafted as the RB5 off the board. I think we got there, Jay. I think it came with last year's performance. Leading the league in rushing.

42:22Jason Moore:I guess where I'm at is I never, ever, ever take James Cook because he's going where the last of the elite wide receivers are. so if I'm deciding between like all these running backs that are at the next turn in the second round, these Walker, H.A. and Hampton, like I love all those guys and I don't really love the wide receivers there so I just can't take James Cook there because I'm always taking JSN or Amon Ra or CD and then coming around and grabbing these other running backs but James Cook's awesome.

42:53Mike Wright:Yeah that makes sense I mean Jefferson or James Cook? James Cook. Okay. Yeah, TD regression has not existed for James Cook. His opportunities ballooned from 245 to 349 last year.

43:08Jason Moore:There's rumors that they're going to pass more. I could see them getting Cook more involved in the passing game. He's got room to go up there.

43:15Andy Holloway:If they run more, it's James Cook. If they pass more, he'll have more receptions.

43:19Jason Moore:He's so good. And he's on the bills. He's on one of the best offenses in the league. He is on the bills. I mean, it's just like we're talking about A-Chan and the Dolphins. You're going to have so many touchdown opportunities. Yeah. Yeah, it's just tough because I've never drafted him.

43:34Mike Wright:Yeah, I mean, his quarterback will score 12 times on the ground, and he'll still be fine. That's the wild thing.

43:39Jason Moore:Yeah, those odds that I was giving earlier in the top five, both James Cook and Josh Allen were in the top five, and there's 32 teams. And he's on the Bills. The Bills.

43:51Mike Wright:All right, we'll take a break. We'll come back with our top four.

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45:31Mike Wright:well uh you know general overview of the top four they're very good at football number four jonathan taylor comes in at number four i've got him i guess the lowest at six jason at four mike at five he's being drafted at four um he's really good oh jason sank facing

45:50Jason Moore:Yeah, I don't know, man. I'm getting a little bit sour on the Colts. It's so weird because I like the opportunity that Josh Towns has. I've talked about him a lot as one of the latest wide receivers that I really like. I love Tyler Warren. Dog. I just don't know if the vibes are great right now for the Colts. Their schedule is very, very difficult. They opened Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston, Pittsburgh in week five. It's like it's going to be tough sledding. You know, so I don't know. I find myself not excited for Jonathan Taylor. But if you remember, and I've talked about this, like last year before Daniel Jones went down, he was the runaway running back one.

46:36Jason Moore:He was he was which he's done before, by the way, in 2021. He was points ahead of Christian McCaffrey until Daniel Jones went down, and he's a freak of nature.

46:46Mike Wright:I mean, you could point out he's coming off a tremendous workload. So back when he was the running back one in 2021, he had 383 opportunities, followed it up with two injury-plagued seasons. He got back up to that number last year, 378 opportunities. That can be tough on a running back to stay healthy, something you can pay attention to, and that is, you know, he's missed games one, two, three, four years of his career. Maybe that's in the back of your mind. I think Daniel Jones playing at an MVP level, them winning eight out of nine games, certainly helped last year. He's been a great running back when his team has been good.

47:26Mike Wright:He's slowed down a little bit when obviously he hasn't had the quarterback play or the offense, but, yeah, I mean, no complaints.

47:33Jason Moore:Scored 20 fantasy points per game last year on the season. That's including the second half of Grandpa Rivers throwing him the ball. Also, the vacated targets on this team. Just like we talked about with A-chan losing Waddle, the targets often go to the running back. And he can catch it. He can catch it. Is this similar to James Cook? He's pretty close. I have James Cook ahead of Jonathan Taylor now. Yeah. I'm just saying draft. like in in the draft and are you able to grab um you know one of those jsn amon raw he's at 106 oh

48:08Mike Wright:yeah you're in the same category he's at 106 versus 109 for cook yeah i think i think i'd

48:13Jason Moore:rather have no jason i think i'd rather have not cd but if i could grab jsn or amon raw puka oh definitely i mean puka and jamar chase ahead but those four wide receivers i think i

48:25Mike Wright:would take over over Jonathan Taylor I mean we I feel like we're made a mistake not talking about

48:31Jason Moore:Puka could get a suspension too yeah that's been uh you know he who Mike shall not name was reporting yeah uh was reporting that uh both Puka and Jacobs that there are still discussions going on in the NFL as to potential suspensions number three Christian McCaffrey comes in at

48:54Mike Wright:number three we all have him at number three he's being drafted as number three um but i'll probably

49:00Andy Holloway:be number one right it's there's really not much of a discussion to have here it's if mccaffrey stays healthy he's a probably the number one running back or at the he's top three guys that you say it at the floor of a healthy christian mccaffrey he's the running back three and a but a difference maker at finishing at running back three. It just means two other guys happen to have like crazy seasons.

49:30Mike Wright:He's coming off a season with 440 opportunities. If you remember the last time this has happened, I think DeMarco Murray in 2014 had 449. That's a lot. I think the last time Christian McCaffrey had that many,

49:46Jason Moore:including the. Oh no,

49:47Andy Holloway:he's actually never had that many. Well,

49:50Jason Moore:I'm just saying his 2019 season, he had uh 428 in season um man and then he was of course missed the next year with injury it's

50:00Mike Wright:there's no one you feel more nervous about injury with still and that's fair but i mean anybody can get hurt other than you told me bijon can't last year which and i was right i mean i will say this

50:12Jason Moore:the the injury stuff that we talk about with these players and you go well anyone can get injured that's true i don't really care about injury history that much for most guys but what i do care about when it comes to the potential for injury is age. So like when I look at Saquon and Christian McCaffrey coming off of large workloads and they're 30, that's where it's like, it's just, you know, it's, it's more, it's more difficult to recover quickly. Should an injury happen?

50:38Andy Holloway:Is it more comforting to say three of the past four years he has been number one or number

50:46Mike Wright:too that's very comforting yeah that's a good way to put it that's nice like those the the two

50:53Andy Holloway:carolina years i mean that's just that he's so fluky stuff he's he's so good the offense you know they keep losing their wide receivers christian mccaffrey last year 129 targets there's there's not a world where he doesn't get 100 plus targets again and it's just somehow remains unstoppable because he caught 102 of them for 924 yards. That's 9.1 yards per catch. These are high numbers for a running back. It's very effective. He's had seven receiving touchdowns in two of the past three years, and the one when he had none is because that was one of the years he got hurt. It's time to ask yourself, what do you believe?

51:42Andy Holloway:Will he get hurt or will he not?

51:45Mike Wright:Yeah, I mean, I think the only reason he's not going at number one is because you have two guys this year that are significantly younger that have already proven it, and so you get to take the odds, right? Yes. You get to take odds with you that these guys are going to be better, starting with number two. B. John Robinson.

52:06Jason Moore:Yeah, he's pretty good. Before, the last thought I had on McCaffrey, because I'm looking at this strategically for 2026. You're in that first round of the draft. Personally, I find that those top four wide receivers that I love, I'm leaning towards them over James Cook and over Jonathan Taylor. And I can't decide when I'm there and I'm staring at JSN, Amon Ra, and Christian McCaffrey, which one is the right pick. Can you guys just tell me?

52:41Andy Holloway:is probably cmc unfortunately i cannot i i knew what it was last year but i i don't know this year

52:46Mike Wright:um yeah i mean the you a more valuable thing for your team is if you get christian mccaffrey playing at a high level that's the most valuable fair bijon number two gotten better every single year got paid this offseason oh wait that's the same thing with number one jameer gibbs gotten better every single year got paid this offseason both are 24 years old both lost their backups

53:10Jason Moore:that encroached on touchdowns for them one's on a really good team yeah I mean that's that's the biggest difference is one is on a team projected to score you know top three in the NFL and one is you know a 500 at best team that is not projected to score as much the path for Bijan to outscore

53:29Andy Holloway:Jamir Gibbs is it's Tua. It's Tua is the quarterback for the vast majority of the season. And then, and we continue to see the highest check down to the running back rate that we continue to see that. I think it's, that's to me, like that's kind of the only way.

53:45Jason Moore:But think about what you just said with your words and your mouth. Yeah. You just said that the, his best, his, the thing I know is best for him is Tua.

53:52Andy Holloway:That's why he said,

53:53Jason Moore:I have moved Bijan to two.

53:55Andy Holloway:I'm with you guys on Gibbs.

53:55Mike Wright:It says something though, to me, what you looked up earlier, Gibbs is the number one highest odds of double-digit touchdowns. Bijan did not crack that list of the top six. That says something to me. That's a differentiator. I think Gibbs has the potential this season to have one of those years, an LT-style, CMC-style.

54:15Jason Moore:I feel like he has the chance to score the most fantasy points ever at the running back position.

54:20Mike Wright:I mean, you look at what Dan Campbell's philosophy was as an offense with a team with Montgomery who could catch the football. when he took over as the play caller Gibbs had the seventh most receptions of any player in the NFL that's what you need that's the LT that's a CMC you want this guy to be like standalone as if he was just a wide receiver with the receiver numbers he's in the top five at the position and so that that is in the realm of possibilities because the offense Detroit favored in 14 of 17 potential to score a ton of points that's the differentiator both guys are going to be awesome both guys could easily finish number one it's funny because they neither has i mean they haven't had that year it's like when chase had never finished at one and we're like we always drafted him at the top because you know it's coming you know it's just the offensive system it's the same

55:09Andy Holloway:reason you said you like hampton more than genti the this is a year where frequently i don't want the number one pick. You'll have kind of a tier of, here's five or maybe even six guys. I want to start my draft with them. So I'd rather start where my second pick is going to be better. The way that ADP and the market looks like it's shaking out this year, I want the number one pick. I want Gibbs because on the way back that turn, I'm going to get two other... The 2-3 turn is great. Yes. I love the players going in that range. So if I could stack it with the guy who has the highest potential of carrying teams into the fantasy playoffs and fantasy championships, I will actually want the number one pick this year.

55:58Jason Moore:Yeah, we talked about Gibbs is, you know, as far as the sportsbook odds to have 10 regular season rushing touchdowns, he's number one in the league. And Bijan is number eight in the league. But Jameer Gibbs, to have double-digit touchdowns, is minus 370. That means if you want to make$100, you have to bet$370. It's that kind of shit.

56:23Mike Wright:Yeah, you want me to blow your mind? Here are players that had more carries inside the five than B. John and Gibbs last year. Sean Tucker, Blake Corum, J. Corey Krosky, Chris Rodriguez, Ramondre. Both players should have more opportunities in that regard.

56:39Jason Moore:Where's my bill dropped? There it is.

56:42Mike Wright:So it's like you take Gibbs, 19-plus fantasy points per game, two straight years, Bijan, 18-plus, two straight years, and you give him goal line, and then Gibbs is on a good team. I don't know. These are easy picks. I think in a different season, CMC is the number one pick. If these guys are not just entering their prime at 24 years old, I don't think there's any reason why you couldn't. I will say this. If you want to shoot the shot on CMC, I don't think you're doing a wrong thing there. I mean, San Francisco should win games. He did stay healthy all last year. He takes care of himself. His injuries have been freak injuries.

57:19Mike Wright:If you want to do it, do you think that's wrong?

57:22Andy Holloway:I don't think it's wrong. You're just the level of fire that you need to be there is maybe not worth it. But, you know, like the argument for McCaffrey, so two of the last three years because we're sandwiched with a – he played four games and did nothing for fantasy. but 22.4 points per game and 21.5 points per game. Neither Jameer or Bijan in their first three years has surpassed 20 points per game. So the ceiling for McCaffrey might be a little higher, but when you're weighing out the risk of what those other two guys are, I'll take them.

58:01Jason Moore:Yeah, since we've been talking through the top 10 and we've been talking about 10 rushing touchdowns and the odds, a couple other interesting tidbits to close out the top 10. I noticed that so Bijon was 8th. Gentie is 13th. Highest odds at the running back position. Who's between Bijon and Gentie? Between Bijon and Gentie is Saquon Barkley, Amarian Hampton, David Montgomery. Yeah, I mean they're a good team. Ken Walker III and then Gentie. Where's Chase Brown? Chase Brown for 10 rushing touchdowns. Nowhere, right? Chase Brown is a little further down. Devon Achan is 23rd. Yeah. So Chase Brown is ahead of that, but yeah.

58:54Mike Wright:All right. Let's do some mailbag.

58:58Jason Moore:Mailbag. Mailbag. Oh, yeah.

59:02Mike Wright:Alec in Wisconsin. By the way, if you have a question, go to the site, thefantasyfootballers.com. Click that submit a question button or dial our voicemail hotline 302464 TFFB. Alec in Wisconsin says, hey, Baller, simple question. If I'm a rebuilding team in Dynasty, would you trade away Jonathan Brooks off his hype or hold out and hope he takes over and you have a better value? I would be the latter. I would do the latter. I don't think the trade value on Jonathan Brooks is as good as it could get.

59:30Jason Moore:so let's let's just say if you could get a 27 late first oh i would do that i mean i do that

59:38Andy Holloway:yeah okay i think it's more of a can you get a second i would not do it definitely i would not

59:43Jason Moore:do it for a second i i think you can definitely get a second for jonathan brooks right now so he's very young so we're both we're both i think all three of us are the same which is if you can get a first for jonathan brooks yes do it i would do it and i don't do it for a second

59:56Mike Wright:Johnny Johnson writing in from Grand Junction. Johnny Johnson and Grand Junction.

1:00:02Andy Holloway:I don't think that's a real name. Grand Junction.

1:00:04Mike Wright:That's not a real name. It is a real name. He used to play running back for the Cardinals when I was born. We had a Johnny Johnson. What was his middle name?

1:00:12Andy Holloway:Jonathan. Steve. Who does? My last name's Johnson. What should we name our son? John. I don't get it. It literally says son of John.

1:00:24Mike Wright:What has been your least favorite draft spot to draft from and why? Not the first.

1:00:31Jason Moore:Least favorite spot? I think my least favorite is...

1:00:36Mike Wright:Wherever I have to take Jefferson.

1:00:38Jason Moore:I mean, that might be my real answer.

1:00:40Mike Wright:Wherever I feel backed into Jefferson. Because the problem is you get maybe two swings at that decision. If you're at 9, 10, 11, or 8. you pass on him oh gosh I didn't take him I took Jinty oh no he's there again

1:00:59Jason Moore:yeah I think right now my least favorite spot is around like 9 to 12 that's where I don't want to be this year

1:01:07Mike Wright:it hasn't felt great we're going to wrap it up we got a mock draft show tomorrow and we're bringing the mock draft mayhem back by popular request and on Friday one of our biggest episodes top 10 tips and tricks don't miss it we'll talk to you then goodbye

1:01:25Jason Moore:Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

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