Fantasy Football - Top 10 RB Rankings + Undrafted Gems - Podcast for 8/12

14:40Andy Holloway:I'm still good with my recommendation Mr. Neighbors of just pop that toe off I would not duplicate that

14:47Mike Wright:can't pop the shoulder for your arm okay thank you mike uh sean mcdermott telling reporters he's confident james cook will practice today and he did and that things have changed it said that they had some discussions and conversations around the contract so now he's back out there practicing the yo-yo off season of james cook continues do does that insinuate that he's about to have a contract come through i don't i don't know if i'd go or they said you will not get a contract and he said oh or we'll work knows we'll work really hard we'll continue to work hard but we need you on the field that's part of the equation getting ready for the season i don't know i'm not there and james cook he's playing by some new rules you know he could walk off he could be walking off the practice field right now yeah and we would not know and that could be his thing like ah you thought i was i do i do half practice yeah uh you pay me half what i deserve I do have practice uh the 49ers um goodness gracious you know Brandon I you on track to be

15:48Jason Moore:back around week six that is a long time from now that's why he's been off our board pretty much the whole offseason we knew that this was an injury he was going to start on the pop which which also

15:59Mike Wright:let me just throw this out there another player that we said hey maybe they'll get back for week one that doesn't look like they'll be back for a while Darnell Mooney of the Falcons yeah he's also in this camp now where it's like yeah when like last didn't they say we hope to have him this season yeah and well that i mean the most recent comment was like yeah he should be back

16:15Jason Moore:at some point this season yeah it's like whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa where did back it up escalated quickly but what i was getting to jordan watkins another wide receiver a rookie for the 49ers is now out a month with a high ankle sprain they currently have ricky pierce all back who was hurt john jennings is hurt iuka's hurt demarcus robinson played in the preseason game he should be suspended he could have a big role but he's probably going to get suspended jacob cowing hamstring watkins now high ankle sprain but that doesn't even speak of the running back room where they've lost garendo and jordan james and now amir abdulla's on injured reserve oh my gosh abdulla that i mean he barely what are you it's like he walked off the plane and tripped down the thing off the plane like the stairs you guys remember

17:02Andy Holloway:an old Marty Short movie, Pure Luck? No, we don't. Well, everyone at home, just enjoy how good that reference was. Maybe not everyone. Maybe just Papa Josh. I'm sure you remember that old flick. This is when we were kids. Kyle knows it. Thank you. Goodness gracious, guys. You got one, Mike. He gets stung by the bee and he starts swelling. But is the principle of this that there's bad things keep happening to him? Yes.

17:29Jason Moore:okay he has unbelievable pure luck oh i do remember yeah yeah you do you do oh i will

17:36Andy Holloway:the b the bee sting reminded me okay i'll wait for my apple that was the beginning of uh glick yes jiminy glick uh the the 49ers the offseason the injuries the i mean it's just year after year

17:50Jason Moore:after year we go through this listen christian and george stay in a bubble okay you're the two One of the most important fantasy assets there in San Francisco. Don't even hang around people. I was going to say both have been hurt before quite a bit. So it's like maybe practice somewhere else. Matthew Stafford, the latest word there, Sean McVay saying the team will be, quote, flexible and fluid when dealing with him recovering from his back injury.

18:15Mike Wright:That's kind of how we are with the deucers when they have to leave in the middle of the show for bathroom breaks. Right. We're flexible.

18:23Jason Moore:They're fluid. Right. Yeah. Yeah. He was supposed to practice on Monday, but ended up being out.

18:30Andy Holloway:Look, it's all going to plan. It's the plan. The plan is that we're flexible. The theme of 2025 really is. It's like plan instead of, you know, it's all glass half full. Dude, I have a plan for about 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. today. Guys, then take a nap. OK, yeah, that's resting you. You and Kenneth. That was news and notes sponsored by Progressive Insurance. Quote today at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and third-party insurers.

18:58Mike Wright:Not available in all states or situations. Coverage subject to policy terms, limits, and conditions. We'll take a break. We'll hit the countdown.

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19:54Jason Moore:If you're an NFL fan, ESPN is where you need to be this season. It's the biggest lineup they've ever put together. Monday Night Football, every week, every game on NFL Network. Now also available with an ESPN Unlimited plan. And for the first time ever, Super Bowl 61. Marquee matchups. MVP quarterbacks, international games, the whole season start to finish. Football's on ESPN.

20:30Running backs.

20:32Mike Wright:All right, it is time for our countdown, the top 10 running backs by consensus rankings. We're looking at half PPR rankings. A reminder, all of our tiers and tier-based rankings are in the ultimate draft kit, along with customizable scoring so you can import your league, printable cheat sheets that are compatible with your league. And again, that's on mobile. There's the new Value Scout tool, the draft analyzer, a lot of resources. You can learn about that at ultimatedraftkit.com. Let's begin. Number 10. Well, he's healthy right now. Josh Jacobs, 27 years old, dominant season last year in Green Bay.

21:11I've got him at 8, Jason at 12, Mike at 11. comes in at 10 in our consensus, being drafted as the running back nine right now, Josh Jacobs.

21:20Jason Moore:Yeah, I don't mind it either. I mean, this is a guy who finished as the running back five last year, and if you look at how the season went along, there was a point last year after a quarter, a third of the season was in where we were talking about Josh Jacobs not getting touchdowns. It's hard to even remember. He was due for touchdowns because then they figured it out, and he got a touchdown every single week. He was so consistent, so dominant. It's part of the reason why I've been kind of down on – Andrew, look. I've been kind of down on Jordan Love a little bit just because what they did around the goal line was so effective with Josh Jacobs towards the end of last year.

22:02Jason Moore:If that were to continue, if that was the plan, they just figured out how to utilize his skill set and their offensive line scheme around the goal line where it was pretty much unstoppable. if that continued, Josh Jacobs would be a great pick. I don't have any problem. I've got him a few spots below where his ADP is ranking-wise, but he can absolutely – I don't see him being drafted at his ceiling at running back nine.

22:25Mike Wright:Well, the three checkboxes yesterday, right? Touchdowns, workhorse role, winning team, those all are there for Josh Jacobs. The fourth most carries last year, fourth most red zone touches, led the NFL 14 rushing touchdowns inside the 10, so they went to him like you said. And I think it's almost interesting that you kind of brought up the fat Thor for a second. But if you look at what his resume is, that season where he played 13 games and it was a disaster for Las Vegas and he left the team, that was very much the outlier of his career. And the offseason demand for Josh Jacobs and free agency showed that teams recognized that this just wasn't what Josh Jacobs was all about.

23:05Mike Wright:The year before, he was the running back three, and in Las Vegas, that team was not checking all the boxes. That was a magic season. Yeah, I mean, it was 17.8 fantasy points a game. But last year, back up to 16.2, his second highest of his career. Two of the last three years, he's been just a fantasy force. So we know that potential. I don't feel like he's as – he's not James Cook in the touchdown regression fears because James Cook's workload is so much less, Yes, and there's so much more history of not scoring in Buffalo and the three-headed monster there.

23:39Jason Moore:Yeah, they have other options. The fourth checkbox for me, if there was a fourth, which there isn't. We can add as many checkboxes as you want. Okay, then the fourth checkbox is to have injury-prone, worthless backs behind you.

23:49Andy Holloway:Yeah.

23:49Jason Moore:I mean, there's no competition. My worry about Josh Jacobs last year was that this is a system that has always been a committee situation, and they've talked about that. That's their preference. but you can't do that if you don't have the personnel. They can't go into the season and have a 50-50 time split here. They don't have the other running backs. Marshawn Lloyd is made of the same stuff that Kendra Miller is made of. It's like Laffy Taffy. You just can't stay healthy, and so Josh Jacobs is going to be a workhorse back for a good offense.

24:24Andy Holloway:Yeah, coming into the offseason, all my concerns were, does Marshawn Lloyd show why he was a third-round pick? does it swing back for Green Bay where in 2023 24 % of their touchdowns were rushing touchdowns and then that jumped all the way up to 45 this past year. So it was like seeing what LeFleur has done with Jordan Love. They like to throw when they're getting in closer but now you have the Jordan Love injury to start. Marshawn Lloyd is hurt. They just signed, I don't know if you guys saw, Turing Davis Price, a name from the past from the relics of the San Francisco draft era. Lord Tyrion.

25:04Andy Holloway:They've added another running back because they're probably concerned about Lloyd. I've gotten to the point where I'm with Jason. I'm slightly behind the ADP, but I don't mind Josh Jacobs as my RB1.

25:18Mike Wright:Just said it with Jordan Love. They're favored in their first eight games of the season. Projected win total of 9.5. A lot of the times I worry about backup running backs making an impact when there's a reason for the team to go away from what happened last year he played 17 games he could handle the workload he had 344 opportunities which was 60 fewer than he had in las vegas when he played 17 so one of the true workhorses um over 1300 yards on the ground it was it was pretty incredible from week five on for them once they figured it out and again it was a little slower start you say they figured it out part of that is just you're you're

25:55Andy Holloway:brand new member of a brand new team and part of it was the Jordan Love injuries from last year he got hurt in week one and then he sustained an injury a few weeks later that he played through but it definitely affected how they were choosing to do things all right moving on number nine

26:13Mike Wright:Chase Brown Chase Brown comes in at number nine I got him at 12 you guys both have him at eight I think we're all excited for Chase Brown and the potential in that offense. You saw it last year. It was on display. This was a player that leveled up from a talent perspective. We went into the season thinking, well, they invested in Zach Moss, who had played well in Indianapolis.

26:34Andy Holloway:The team went into it thinking that Zach Moss was the guy for the first couple of weeks.

26:38Mike Wright:Yeah, snap counts for Chase Brown, 33%, 20%, 24 % those first three weeks, just three, four, and seven attempts on the ground. He is not a prototypical between-the-tackles workhorse. He's an Austin Eckler. He absolutely is. He's capable between the tackles, but he can also be utilized. He can have a game where he gets 10 or 11 carries, but still gives you a really nice fantasy day because of utilization in the passing game.

27:05Jason Moore:What's crazy is he wasn't getting 10 or 11 carries when he became their starter. He was getting 17.7 carries a game. That's a 300-carry pace his last seven games played, basically when Zach Moss went down. So Zach Moss goes down. This team got off to a slow start. They lost a ton of games, and they tried to fix it and make the playoffs. Remember, they went on a great run towards the end of the season, won a bunch of games. Chase Brown was a huge part of that. And as soon as that happened, you have Chase Brown on pace for 94 targets, for over 1 ,200 rushing yards, over 600 receiving yards, a true dual threat back.

27:45Jason Moore:I care more about those

27:46Andy Holloway:the targets. That is absolutely outrageous and that's what I am going to project for the Cincinnati Bengals moving forward. Yes, Amandje P. Ryan will take some snaps away from Chase Brown.

28:01Mike Wright:They do not want him at 85 % snaps. That's an insane number. Remember they added Khalil Herbert at the end of the year and they'd already lost Moss and they lost backup players like i don't know was it kyron that ended up having those kind of snap counts for like three or four years ago massive both last year and the year before like you don't generally

28:22Jason Moore:see snap counts in the 90s no no that was kyron it was basically kyron christian mccaffrey so to

28:28Mike Wright:your point about like taking some snaps here and there that makes sense uh but but you but this is

28:33Andy Holloway:their guy you will get games uh like i mean you would expect three to four targets as your floor for him and then you have ceiling games where it just works out that this is how the Bengals are going to attack the defense and Chase Brown is going to have eight or nine receptions and he just it there's a fourth checkbox here what's that Samaj P. Ryan is the main backup

28:59Jason Moore:Samaj P. Ryan five years ago and when they get

29:03Andy Holloway:close to the goal line they just keep throwing so give me the receiving back

29:07Mike Wright:yeah and let's uh let's hope that i mean this to be fair the only thing in the back of my head tucked away hidden is they constantly gave some ajp ryan work when joe mixon was supposed to be on the field in their playoff run but this is two years three years removed they've got to be smart

29:26Andy Holloway:about it but we expect that joe mixon is one of the things that gives me even more faith than chase brown of joe mixon was their guy i mean for years and years and years it didn't matter how inefficient was joe mixon having a great game was joe mixon having one of his stinkers of a game it didn't matter they still kept going to him how early is too early to draft him if you're in love

29:46Mike Wright:with chase brown he's the rb12 off the board you guys have him at eight what i love is that his

29:51Andy Holloway:adp is in the third that is spectacular i would take him in the second okay keep it in the third

29:57Jason Moore:people yeah mock draft season yeah yeah yeah don't pull the trigger on chase brown draft season

30:02Andy Holloway:manipulate the market.

30:04Jason Moore:Yeah. We're not managed by the, you know.

30:08Mike Wright:You should have sent Travion Henderson a note to, you know, keep it under control in the preseason because he's hurting the ADP a little bit. Yeah, he really is. All right. This is a big name to talk about. Number eight. Bucky Irving comes in at number eight. We all have him slightly below ADP. Just a tiny bit. Just a tiny, tiny bit. I love, love, love Tampa Bay. I love the offense. I love Baker. I love the stability. I love the fact that you have a system that has worked to produce big numbers year after year. And I absolutely was blown away on a weekly basis by what Bucky Irving was doing out there on the field.

30:50Mike Wright:He was the RB7 from Week 10 on when his takeover really came to fruition. Rashad White's got the groin injury right now. Sean Tucker's talented. I don't know what kind of work he's really going to get because they've been talking about Sean Tucker being talented for three years. But, you know, you look at the 46 running backs with 100-plus carries on the season. He was fifth in yards per carry, seventh in explosive rush rate, seventh among all running backs in rush success rate, third in forced missed tackles per attempt. There is a world, and it's not one we're predicting by putting him at eight, but there's a world where Bucky Irving is, you know, you get six, seven, eight weeks into the season, and we're like, he's sitting at RB3.

31:31Mike Wright:And you're like, man, that is that dude.

31:34Jason Moore:The talent he showed on film last year absolutely says he could do that. If he gets the workload and if he can handle the workload. Now, there's three good backs here right now. Rashad White is a little injured, so maybe you get off to a hotter start to begin the year and give Bucky a huge workload. I think that Bucky is good enough to be a LaShawn McCoy type of player where he could be a fantasy game wrecker as a smaller back with high volume. But there's always the worry I have in the back of my mind. As a 195-pound back, he had a game where he had 28 opportunities and dominated. He was the running back one.

32:14Jason Moore:He had 152 yards, 6.1 yards of carry. He was awesome. And he didn't miss the next game.

32:22Andy Holloway:He left that game and looked like he was prepping for a sarcophagus.

32:26Jason Moore:He was mummied up. He was full wrapped. And then the next game, he plays 16 % of snaps, gets five total opportunities. Because he took too much damage for a 195-pound back.

32:39Mike Wright:Which I think he spent a lot of the offseason has been a focal point, is getting stronger, getting the body capable of handling that kind of a workload. He wants to be that guy. What would you put your odds that he finishes the top five back? He's being drafted as the eighth back off the board. Give me a percentage chance. Top five? Top five. Top five.

33:00Jason Moore:I'll go, I feel like it's 15%.

33:03Andy Holloway:Yeah, I'm more like in the 30. I was going to go about 20, 25.

33:07Jason Moore:Okay. When we look at the three checkboxes of, you know, are you a workhorse? Do you get the touchdowns? Are you on a winning team? Like, the team is good. We're not sure if he's a true workhorse back here, if the volume will truly be there with three other backs. And then will he be the touchdown machine?

33:24Andy Holloway:He averaged three targets a game, and that was, you know, even with a slower start. The fact that he was a fourth-round running back who's the incumbent took like every snap. I mean, Rashad White's superpower when he was good for fantasy was he just was there all the time for a fourth-rounder to steal the job, not from an injury to Rashad White, just because Bucky was so much better, that speaks highly. Where did Rashad White end up finishing last year? Was it like 18 or something? White was still very relevant because he catches so much passes. So, I mean, you had Bucky at just over three targets a game, and then you have Rashad White at 3.6 targets a game.

34:10Mike Wright:Yep. Yeah, so Bucky Irving at eight. Number seven. Devon HN. Devon HN comes in at number seven. uh this is a very unique uh analysis situation to me he was rb7 last year um it was impressive he could handle the workload he didn't you know injuries were a concern in the rookie season when he was so explosive and then missed time he's 23 years old we all have him right where he's being drafted almost on the dot jason one spot higher the pass catching work is unbelievable the targets are worth a lot more than the the carries and you know this was the number one running back reception leader in the game the running back room is thinning out i mean alexander madison who was making waves in camp now out for the season jaylen wright not sure that he's going to be trustworthy enough he he certainly wasn't last year and then ollie gordon you know this is a rookie so i it's it's definitely all on was ollie gordon seventh round um yeah he fell i mean maybe sixth but he you know devon h has he has the workload i don't know how good this team will end up i with the offensive line situation i don't think that matters yeah my chips are all i don't

35:37Jason Moore:think it matters if the dolphins are good or not because where devon hann thrives is the passing game. What matters is if Tua is there. When Tua is gone, so is Devon Achan. That's the risk. That's the worry. If you look at the splits with and without Tua, when Tua is gone, we kind of explained this when he went down. The whole defense is like, okay, now I'm stacking the line and you're not dumping it off to Devon Achan. He basically disappeared 7.7 fantasy points per game in those games without Tua. But when Tua was there, six and a half targets per game, 19.5. 19.5 fantasy points per game. For context, Derrick Henry last year was 19.2.

36:19Jason Moore:And, you know, he had 700 rushing touchdowns. So this is a player who, in my opinion, in my strategy, if I'm there where he's being drafted and he's available, I'm grabbing him. Yep. I believe he has the potential to be top three running back. He will have the workload. There isn't a depth chart here with Alexander Madison getting that season-ending injury. The Ollie Gordon and the Jalen Wright, I'm not worried about them. He's going to have extreme volume. Tyreek Hill says you should be. Tyreek Hill says you should be worried around the goal line. But the pass-catching work, with Jonu Smith gone in that area of the field who already had almost, I think he had 100 targets.

37:01Jason Moore:This guy's just going to get nonstop wide receiver PPR numbers.

37:06Mike Wright:Yeah, they tried Jen and Wright four times on the goal line in preseason week one, and that didn't work. So they may need to either throw it around there and let A-Chan stay in the game on the field.

37:18Andy Holloway:It's wild, though, just the risk of it not being just does A-Chan get hurt, but like Tua getting hurt. Look at Josh Jacobs. You have Jordan Love go out. Of course, the offense doesn't work as well, but Josh Jacobs is going to have so much work. We're going to counterbalance the efficiency of the offense with volume. With HN, if Tua goes out, then it's just you are sad.

37:45Mike Wright:It just shows. I mean, he only had three rushing touchdowns on 15 attempts inside the five. So it straight up did not work. It did not work.

37:55Jason Moore:I don't think it would work with a different back, though. That offensive line is so bad.

37:59Mike Wright:Well, I mean, maybe a slightly more talented, bigger back it would work, but the line is terrible. I'm just saying, like, if they had succeeded inside the five, it's not like the opportunities weren't there. You're talking about a player that would have finished higher than RB7 last year. You talk about the points per game numbers. He would be the complete package if he could get inside the end zone when they have those goal line opportunities, but he feels very, very safe this year. Number six. All right, it's a preseason bust. Ashton Jinty. Negative. He's a turd. 21 years old. I've got him at four.

38:37Mike at five. Jason at seven.

38:39Mike Wright:His ADP is five, and so our consensus rank is six. You saw him briefly in the first week, and you're going to see a lot more of him over the course of the season. First-round running backs traditionally, they dominate, they crush for fantasy football. I think as the season gets started, I do think you're going to see Raheem Mostert on third down quite often. That seems to be the plan right now for the Raiders. But do you see Gentry as any sort of bust risk at all?

39:13Jason Moore:Yeah, so he's certainly a bust risk because we've never seen him on the field in NFL games. He played for a college program that was – he's not in the SEC. He's not facing the extreme awesome talent, but he is drafted where he was in the NFL for a reason. I don't think he will fail as an NFL player at all. At all. He is as locked as you can be at the running back position. But for fantasy purposes, where he's being drafted, you talk about those three checkboxes. Is he going to be a workhorse? Absolutely. He'll have the workload. That is a guarantee for where they drafted him and what the depth chart says.

39:53Jason Moore:Will he have the touchdown opportunities? I don't know if this offense in a tough division, they're currently slated for six and a half wins in Vegas.

40:04Mike Wright:Yeah, they're underdogs, by the way, for six of the first seven weeks.

40:07Jason Moore:So he doesn't check all the boxes, and you haven't seen it yet. The reason he's this high is because as a prospect, what you're hoping for is one of those generational players who can finish as the running back one simply because he is that good. you're betting on the talent you know that the the opportunity will be there but the team is what

40:30Mike Wright:scares me yeah they were uh the worst running game in the nfl last year which you know not surprising when you look at what they had in the backfield combined with the offensive line play but and the quarterback play and all the play of all the players um but that you're looking at rejuvenation here in las vegas and you're going to need them to to put it together on a weekly basis but I think that's the plan I think the plan is to give him that every opportunity to be

40:54Jason Moore:exactly what you'd want in fantasy yeah you you hope that with uh Chip Kelly and you know this team wants to run the ball and have a fast pace of play so there's some good things here but the bad things you look at Josh Jacobs who clearly still has it last time we saw him with the Raiders with that offensive line two years ago he was not good he was inefficient last year 32nd best team at running the ball. I mean, Zamir White. Right. But my point is Josh Jacobs is really good, and he sucked there. So I don't know that this offensive line and that the system is really improved enough.

41:28Mike Wright:Three new starters, and like I said, they're going to start off. You go to New England in week one. You're going to play against the Chargers in week two, Washington in week three, Chicago week four, on the road again in week five. I do think it might be a little bit – now he could put me wrong. You can go out and have 260-yard touchdowns in week one. But it might start a little slow. Like I said, working in Raheem Mostert a little bit and the matchups to begin the year, I think we'll get there for Gentry.

41:52Jason Moore:I love Gentry. I mean, you know, I've got him at seven. But when I look at the draft and how it goes, I feel like where Gentry's going in the first round, if you were to take a wide receiver there, one of the elite studs at wide receiver, and then you, you know, just on, you know, later in the second, you get H.A.N. or you get Josh Jacobs, I don't know that you're really sacrificing much.

42:15Mike Wright:No, that's a good point, and that's the decision-making you're going to have to make in your drafts. I will say this. What's stopping that is people – it's fun to draft Ash and Gente. Yeah, it is. That's part of it. The emotional excitement.

42:27Jason Moore:The excitement that you might have the next greatest of all time. Might be a yacht. Right. Right. No, it's true. All right, we'll take a break, and we'll get into the top five.

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44:41Back into the running back rankings we go. Number five. Derek Henry. Back again. Long live the king.

44:50Mike Wright:Long live the king. You're talking about the number two running back in fantasy last year. Just ho-hum, 19.2 fantasy points a game. he is the uh he's the player that if you doubt him you pay the price that has been the story for what three years now of you know three years of doubt because he had the injury in 2021 missed eight games the shoe finally dropped right it was like oh boy this is the end he follows that up basically playing every game the last three seasons and finishing top eight

45:21Jason Moore:for three straight seasons and now is on a way better offense with a better offensive line than he ever remembered in Tennessee. Yeah, this is... The age is the only concern, and I'm not concerned. Some people are... Not some people. Some person is built differently, and it's Derek Henry. He's not a regular human being. No, he's not.

45:49Andy Holloway:I think it's fair to be slightly concerned about the age, but that will not stop me from drafting Derrick Henry. Do you guys remember after week one where it was – the game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Derrick Henry's debut, he only gets 13 carries. Yeah. He runs for three and a half yards. He got the touchdown, so he saved the fantasy day. And then after that was the presser with Harbaugh. Like, we didn't bring Derrick Henry in here to just give him a bajillion carries. And I don't know if he was playing some media rope-a-dope with his week two matchup because then from then on out, you have so many games of 20-plus carries.

46:33Mike Wright:It was the highest. You could argue it was his most consistent season ever. He only had 6 % bus games and 81 % good.

46:41Andy Holloway:How many great teams has Derrick Henry been a part of? What do you mean? Like when he was on Tennessee, how many years were you like that? Top-notch team. Yeah, we like the Titans.

46:56Jason Moore:The Titans were great that year. I don't know if it was zero. Never a Super Bowl contender. I think they had a couple.

47:03Andy Holloway:They may have. My point. Pretty solid years. The point being, you put Derrick Henry, even at this age, on a team. He's the number one seed. That is going to win. Wait, they were a number one seed, the Titans?

47:15Mike Wright:Well, they won the division a bunch of times. Maybe not number one in the whole conference.

47:18Andy Holloway:Yeah.

47:19Mike Wright:Okay.

47:20Andy Holloway:but my point being that was probably if I had to look at the and just guess I'm gonna guess like 2019 or 2020 I'm gonna guess 2020 uh just based off of uh of of when they were good look the point is Baltimore is great they will be leading far more than they will be trailing and when they're leading it will be Derrick Henry salting the game away and scoring so many rushing touchdowns

47:47Mike Wright:yeah then kyle said they were the number one seed overall that was at least once i remember one year

47:52Jason Moore:where he was in the mvp race as a running back so it must have been that must have been that season

47:57Mike Wright:but yeah he's he's that dude yeah frable got frable frable got him going a little bit they were 12 and 5 in 2021 um yeah look this is just a perfect match baltimore 2020 told you baltimore Derrick Henry perfect match same I mean Baltimore's in the running to be a Super Bowl champ 11 and a half wins favored in most of their games so very exciting and you know Keaton Mitchell they need people to spell Derrick Henry here and there but it's not going to impact where we rank him number four Jameer Gibbs 23 years old entering the prime prime time Jameer Gibbs last year number three overall i've got him at three mike at four jason at five he is the most fun player to watch get an opportunity and fantasy in my opinion because they can all go to the house he was number one in explosive rush rate 10 of his carries were 15 plus yards so i had 10 of the

48:59Jason Moore:time i thought he was going to score i had no gibbs i had no shares of gibbs last year just you know it was unfortunate that's how the chips fell and whenever i was playing against gibbs it was a terrible time. You're watching the Lions game, and every time he touches the ball, just watching through fingers like there's a horror film on. Like, no, no, don't let him touch it.

49:25Andy Holloway:So many, they barely clipped his foot. And if that defender didn't get that one tiny clip, he's gone for 50 yards.

49:34Mike Wright:Yeah, I think the story with Gibbs, we've talked about it a lot, so I doubt we need to focus on it too much, but it's just how much work does Monty get?

49:42Andy Holloway:Yep, that's everything for Jameer Gibbs.

49:45Mike Wright:And is there any step back offensive line-wise with the departure of Frank Ragnow? They're all pro center, and they lost an offensive guard. Do they put it together without Ben Johnson? I don't have any doubt that Jameer Gibbs can make something out of nothing on any play. it's just a matter of your confidence level in those factors.

50:07Jason Moore:I think when you're talking about the best of the best backs in the league of which Jameer Gibbs clearly is, what you really want to look at is how does it go wrong? You know, okay, injury for any running back, take that out. Does the offense take a significant step back without their offensive coordinator and their all-world center? I think that that could happen this year. That's my fear for Gibbs. But if that happens and he then ends up at the same time as the Lions take a step backwards, if that forces Gibbs to get more work over David Montgomery because they're like, hey, this isn't working, we've got to put our best player out there, it'll probably kind of stay the same.

50:49Jason Moore:I do think for Gibbs to truly match this draft cost, he's basically drafted as the second or third running back usually, I feel like David Montgomery has to get close to vanishing. If David Montgomery goes out there and gets 10 touchdowns and plays the majority of the season, Gibbs is not going to hurt you at all, but he's not going to be that number one, number two running back.

51:15Mike Wright:10 touchdowns would be a problem. but if if he becomes if monty becomes the algier in the situation for bijon then then i'm more

51:24Andy Holloway:excited gibbs averaged 3.7 targets per game and that includes two weeks of zero targets like he's an absolute it's like h and he's just an animal when it comes to receptions absolutely number three well this guy's at three i didn't realize where he ended up but it's perfect it's because uh that's where jason has him at three mike's got him at one i've got him at six it's christian mcafree christian mcafree christian mcafree christian mcafree i don't like talking

51:55Mike Wright:about christian mcafree it's not fun we've done it a lot we've done it a whole lot this is a team projected to win a lot of games favored in their first four matchups we know the story of mcafree He was league winner for two years, league loser for three of the last five seasons. It's a tall task to ask a player that has been injured frequently to play 17 and give you 300 plus opportunities. If he plays 17 and you get less than that amount of opportunities, I don't think he's worth the number three pick. If he is healthy and they give him all those opportunities, he will be the number one running back in football.

52:34Mike Wright:So that's your equation. It's a risk-reward situation. The rhetoric is Mike's very much playing to win. He says don't play scared. I think you have alternates to also win in this draft cost, so I don't take that approach. But he is the player that if he plays 17 and gets over 300 carries or 300 opportunities, he will probably be the number one running back.

52:56Jason Moore:You do not need Christian McCaffrey to win a fantasy championship. You can win it plenty of other ways. if you don't want to deal with what we have dealt with three of the last five years in his injury, don't. And I wouldn't even say that you're playing scared. You could say you're playing wise because you don't need him to win. However, if he plays, last time, two years ago, he wasn't good. He was in 47 % of championship games. It was just super easy to get a championship if you had Christian McCaffrey. So he's like a cheat code sometimes. So it feels less like playing scared and more like gambling.

53:38Jason Moore:Like I'm playing the lotto, and I got some pretty good – like if the lottery – if you could go out there and get a scratcher ticket and you had a 33 % chance of winning, I mean, okay.

53:53Mike Wright:Look, if McCaffrey was a, you know, if he stayed late second, I mean, he obviously would be a home run because I'd already have another running back on my roster that I could lean on. Mike is as bullish as one can be for Christian McCaffrey.

54:09Andy Holloway:Mike's ensuring he gets picked in the first round in every league. It's that. If he's healthy, he's multiple points better than the running back, too.

54:19Mike Wright:Did you care about any of the games last year, coming back from the Achilles and not giving you the fantasy numbers that you would have hoped for? I didn't. Because there were four games, I think, or three and a half before the Buffalo injury.

54:29Andy Holloway:Yeah, it was definitely a slower start. And then in the Buffalo game when he finally got knocked out for the season, it was like, oh, there he is. There's Christian. It is the insane Saquon Barkley year of last year. 2 ,000 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns, a bunch of receptions. Christian McCaffrey just two years ago was a full point per game better than Saquon Barkley was last year. People are like, the Barkley season. Don't forget what Christian McCaffrey can do. The schedule for San Francisco is very favorable.

55:04Jason Moore:They're projected to win 10 and a half games. They're favored in 15 of 17 games, and their running back schedule is one of the easiest.

55:12Andy Holloway:So it's the injury. If you want to bet that he's going to get hurt, then don't draft him.

55:19Jason Moore:Dude, if I can get him at the turn, if I can get him at 201, 202. I think there will be home leagues out there where it does happen. I don't think so, man. I think every time push comes to shove. It will happen. Push comes to shove, someone's going to be like, I'm taking that. No, because there's a lot of someones, at least three in the last five years, that have been burned. so you might have three people not true in our league it's all the same man one guy three times that is the irony of the thing you know yeah mike should be the one stopping yeah you uh no because they're running backs they all get hurt he's getting a tattoo

55:57Andy Holloway:this afternoon he likes he likes pain hey like you know remember when uh frank gore was injury prone remember when matt forte was injury prone yeah but those don't come on man those don't count They don't count because they're not doing what Christian McCaffrey's doing,

56:11Jason Moore:which is every other year for his whole career. These are league-losing seasons. These are break-your-team-in-half. Those are not like— Like, Frank Gore was injury-prone for a couple years and then went on a decade-long— Not while he was the number one pick in the fantasy, like, three times. I get both sides. I'm going to draft him. All right. Number two. Saquon Barkley, it was a magical year. The question for fantasy players is— Remember when Saquon Barkley was injury-prone? that's that's way more fair that is actually feels because he was the number one pick in drafts and and then didn't play three three devastating injuries in a row uh he had he

56:51Mike Wright:had missed most of 2020 and then he missed three games in 2021 i just like but he was really bad in 2021 because he kept getting hurt okay yeah yeah last year 21.2 fantasy points per game We have him at number two. None of us have him in the number one slot.

57:09Jason Moore:That slot belongs to Mr. Indestructible.

57:15He just won you your league.

57:17Mike Wright:He should do very similar things in Philadelphia, but also that was, you know, he was not at that level in any recent history. So you've got to put the big plays, the 60-plus yard touchdowns, that type of stuff. That's hard to bet on. But 66 % of his rushing yards came before contact. If you remember Kenneth Walker yesterday, 71 % of his came after contact.

57:47Andy Holloway:That is called not fair.

57:50Mike Wright:That's why DeAndre Swift looked very good in Philadelphia. You've got an offensive line ranked number one. They are dealing with a little bit of injury concern right now with Dickerson.

57:58Jason Moore:They got great news, though. Landon Dickerson looked like he was going to miss the season, and now he's hopeful for week one. So he'll be playing the majority of the season.

58:08Mike Wright:So, you know, we're at the point in the countdown where you're just splitting hairs over players. I think you can take one number one if you want to. Sure. That's fine. It's going to be great.

58:19Jason Moore:Yeah, he belongs in the conversation if he stays healthy. I mean, this is coming off of 417 opportunities. opportunities that is a lot of workload on the body you know it's ironic because Christian McCaffrey we always want to say whatever happens last year happens next year but it's almost the opposite in reality you know wide receiver ones the wide receiver one almost never finishes as the wide receiver one the next year and you can't just predict that but a lot of these guys when they come off of a hefty workload season they struggle with injuries the next year it's ironic that Christian McCaffrey's coming off a very low workload season.

58:55Mike Wright:Well, that's one of the reasons why I don't have McCaffrey locked in at number one is because the season he had the year before, before he got hurt and hurt you, was also an outlier season in terms of overall performance. I think it's going to regulate a little bit, and so I have him buried at six.

59:11Jason Moore:You can't. Other than worrying about Saquon's workload being bad from last year, there's nothing to criticize. The passing volume is the criticizing point like, oh, he didn't catch many passes, and that's moot. Because the reason he didn't catch many passes is because he scored so many first-half touchdowns that they didn't throw the ball. If he's not scoring a bunch of touchdowns in the first half, they'll throw the ball more and he'll catch more. So he's just awesome. I worry about the age of workload. Number one.

59:44Mike Wright:You don't worry about the age of B. John Robinson, who comes in at number one overall for our consensus rankings, number two for Mike, was RB4 last year. He had the highest success rate ever for a running back with 250-plus carries. He is game script proof. He can catch the football. I would love to see more big plays from Bichon. That is something that we didn't get a lot of. That was why Saquon was so much more exciting and more fun, and Gibbs for that matter. Like, Saquon and Gibbs were much more fun in terms of, you know, the big plays, the week-winning weeks. I think Saquon had, what, like 30-plus fantasy points.

1:00:22Mike Wright:How many times did he do that? He had it five times, 30-plus fantasy points. So, look, it's cool to finish number one in the week. It's cooler to score 30-plus and win your entire week for your fantasy team. But Bijan with the age, the dependency on him, the fact that, you know, no matter what this team does, he's involved.

1:00:41Andy Holloway:it looks like he had one carry over one carry over 30 yards are they underdogs in the first

1:00:49Jason Moore:six weeks is that right yeah not favored in a game until week eight because of week five by um so yeah you're correct there it's he might not have it he might not have one of the checkboxes he might not have one of the checkboxes number one draft pick i will say this Bijan finishing as the running back one where we have him ranked feels like a slightly lower percentage than some of these other guys we've just talked about but Bijan finish finishing at you know running back eight or ten um you know having a bad season feels so minuscule compared to all these other people that we've talked about so he is really a he's a floor play that is so safe to me he still is going to be awesome he's going to be a top five running back but he's he might not be on a great team and that might hinder his total touchdown opportunities but every single time he touches the ball he creates yards that other players wouldn't they give him the ball so much if they're down they'll throw it to him his four plus targets a game yeah there's there's no worry and no risk the alternate side does exist though if michael pinnix comes out in his is that dude and all of a sudden they do they go out and win 12 games B.

1:02:03Jason Moore:John's probably the running back

1:02:05Mike Wright:one yeah I just looked I'm looking at my projections and you know you're always splitting hairs at the top but sometimes there's a gap right we that's why we have tier-based ranking I don't have a gap I don't have a gap between B. John Saquon and Gibbs like I took a half a touchdown I just did this for experimental sake I took half a touchdown away from my projection for Bijan Robinson because I had him at 11 and a half. When I drop him to 11, he goes from number one to number three. Half a touchdown separates Saquon, Gibbs, and Robinson. If you told me I went into my draft and my selection was a wheel that had pie slices for all three of these guys, I would not care.

1:02:43Mike Wright:I really wouldn't. I think all three of them, there's an upside case for all of them. Saquon keeps doing what he's doing on the best offensive line. Jameer Gibbs, camp seems to be like this is his team now. and he showed he can be the number one back when he gets it, gets all the work and has big play potential. And Bijan, like you said, like if they're a above 500 team even, not even a super team, an above 500 team, there's no way they get that way, get there without Bijan, and he can score 16, 17, 18 touchdowns in the right season.

1:03:12Jason Moore:So I'm really cool with those guys. I personally would also include Henry. Christian McCaffrey? I would put Henry and Christian McCaffrey all in there. In all five? Yeah, to me, well, Christian McCaffrey has a lot more issues. The reason why you're saying in the beginning of the first round you're not going to draft Christian McCaffrey is because, like Mike, you've got him as the running back one, but there's no doubt he carries more risk or flags than some of these other guys who can have an equal chance of finishing as the running back one. Yes, I agree. So I wouldn't select Christian McCaffrey over those guys in the tier, but he is in that tier of range of outcomes.

1:03:51Mike Wright:Yeah, I think McCaffrey and Saquon is the most interesting discussion with the ceiling years, right? Because McCaffrey's super year was 22 points a game. Last year was basically, that's basically where Saquon was. So do you expect either guy to come back and give you a year like that again? Certainly possible. But it's going to be fun. It's going to be, you know, holding your breath, hoping that these guys stay healthy. That's another big part of it.

1:04:19Jason Moore:yeah last year was a pretty other than christian mccaffrey it was a pretty healthy year now for running backs yes we need to get into this i mean mike has the number one overall pick in our league of record yeah yeah he has got now it's a keeper league so there are he's already got christian mccaffrey of course christian mccaffrey on the roster yeah why do you think i got the number one pick guys oh my gosh that's that's you think there's not to go to counseling um no he's got to choose between B. John and that's funny right it's so funny right because Mike has dealt with this every year with Christian McCaffrey his response to dying at the at the knife at the dagger jab of Christian McCaffrey is I want to feel more pain he really is Ricky or redeem it is this a redemption thing is this like you lose the bet on at the poker table so double down

1:05:08Andy Holloway:and then you get all your money back it is understanding that every single workhorse running back is that potential of a season-ending injury every single game i agree no so but you have to stare down saquon and bijon yeah those are the guys out there on the board a lot of other players are kept you will be making that decision you're making that choice and you're who are you taking well i'm told that robinson is guaranteed to play 17 games so i i gotta counterbalance my mcafree risk with someone who's gonna be there don't play scared yeah don't play scared come on man um all right there you go there's our top 10 running backs we've got a top 10 top 10 tips and

1:05:47Mike Wright:tricks episode coming to you tomorrow we've got a mock draft episode on thursday uh the people are hungry for the mock drafts and we've got a my guys announcement to make on friday so the my guys

1:05:59Jason Moore:episode hits on friday we got them locked in unless something else happens in practice or camp or Dante Pettis or something like that goes on. We're pretty well locked. But that's coming on Friday so it's a big week. I know some of you are already drafting this weekend. Make sure you're prepared. We got the UDK for Life giveaway. UltimateDraftKit.com Pick it up. Get ready for your drafts this weekend. It's going to be a difference maker for you.

1:06:26Andy Holloway:Sorry to Keanu Reeves. We'll get you on next time. Goodbye.

1:06:33Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

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