Fantasy Football - Unsolved Mysteries + Dangerous Picks - Podcast for 7/29

0:00This episode is sponsored by PrizePix. Football is back and PrizePix is giving users a new promo every day during Stacked September. Sign up now for guaranteed picks every Monday, along with profit boosts and daily discounts. You just pick two to six players, then pick more or less based on their projected stats. Josh Allen is tearing things up. Is there a projection that he can't pass the moron? Well, tune in on Sundays and find out. Download the app today and use code FOOTBALLERS to get$150 instantly in lineups if you win your first$5 lineup. Prize picks. Run your game. This episode is brought to you by State Farm.

0:42Every football fan is different. Some won't wash their lucky mustard-stained jersey until the season's over. Some insist they can't sit down on third downs, and some pick their favorite team because, I don't know, just like football fandom, nobody's life is exactly the same, and that's why State Farm gets to know you, not as a policy number, but as an actual person, so they can help personalize a coverage plan that's just for you. Whether it's game day or just another Tuesday, State Farm has you covered.

1:19Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

1:37Welcome in!

1:47Tuesday, July 29th, Mike Wright, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, the Fantasy Footballers. Was that enough days, Mike? Was that enough days off to recover from what happened on the last episode? I as I said on that show I went into like I wasn't there yeah you closed your eyes and that meant that you weren't in the room I fully disassociated are you guys talking about new nickname Meat Higgins that is what we are talking about yeah baby that was an all timer I don't know if that did that happen as a byproduct of kind of like Saturday mode like a little Saturday episode yeah it's a little more loose it was at the end of the episode some might say too loose you know some some not me uh so we're we're back uh Tuesday I mean T Higgins needed a rebrand anyways that's not the one I would have chose but that's okay like if it is rare for a veteran like that far in to their career to get a nickname yeah meet higgins here baby okay he's gonna play oh man man uh what do we got going on today we got unsolved mysteries on the episode today going to look into a handful of topics that we think is they haven't really been discussed extensively on the show and they are big question marks for fantasy football players so um do i need to worry about there's a little breaking news we'll talk about it in the news section yeah we did get breaking news to update some breaking news that'll be in the in the news section it's some broken news it is it is broken news yeah okay jason got a dynasty roster spot back yes i did i do want to remind you the ultimate draft kit's available right now it's the number one tool to help you dominate your fantasy football drafts it helps you prepare yourself to make all the right decisions during the draft.

3:53And one of the cool things is we are adding a brand new feature called Value Scout. And this is going to give you the ability to optimize and find values based on the platform you play in. So we've wanted to do this for a long time. Basically, a lot of league mates that you're in leagues with, they draft based on the average draft position of the platform you play on. So Yahoo, Sleeper, ESPN, NFL, wherever they play, that's kind of the default view that they have when you're in the middle of a draft is hey this is where players are going we have rankings that determine what we're calling our true value of those players and we're going to give you the chance for the first time with this new value scout tool to compare that to be able to see what players we have ranked much higher than your platform's adp predict where your opponents are going to take players and give you a chance to kind of optimize for your league it's a it's a chance to find values in your draft yeah you can also use it for the reverse and see where guys are being severely overvalued in their average draft price um you can use it to either be like okay this guy's basically two rounds ahead of adp according to his true value so maybe i just take him one round ahead of adp i'm still getting a value but i'm i'm not overdoing it there's a lot of ways to use the tool i used it this morning for a draft.

5:12It was great. You can't use it yet. No, it's in testing right now. But I can. Final testing phase. And it should be out to the app sometime, I'm thinking, within a week. I see Al Borland over there. He's going like, when? When is this coming? I was curious what you were going to say. Have you done any testing with the app yet? Very little, but I have done some. Alright, well it'll be there soon. UltimateDraftKit.com if you want to check that out. let's get into that jeremy you could just be like yeah that's it's awesome like i've been using it's really great he's only need you could have done that pump it up it's awesome it's really great guys thank you you're gonna love it that's thank you i mean i barely used it but it's but it's awesome all right let's talk about that news news and notes from around the league well we have a lot of injury news to catch you up on but we'll start there and then i'll circle back to contract news we got word that tralen burks this was the new one that just well we got word that the titans wide receiver this weekend on saturday fractured his collarbone which is so impressive whilst coming back from an injury he's coming back from a knee injury not all the way ready to go and somehow still finds a way to break his collar milk it's been a horrible run for trailing burks it's between lack of production he was the for those that don't remember the titans traded their first round pick i believe it was pick 19 18 i think 18 to they traded aj brown away to receive pick 18 and they used it on trailing burks yeah it was basically a one for one it was like you know what we're gonna draft the next aj yeah the next day he was the comp because they didn't want to pay aj brown the the market price no how do you win a Super Bowl if you've got A.J.

7:05Brown making big money. Yeah, exactly. So, yeah, it hasn't worked out for Traylon Burks. Shoot. And we found out moments ago that after the injury, he was waived. He is no longer a member of the Titans. Yep. So. That's all that Cam Ward talk about. They still have a really confusing depth chart at wide receiver to me. They have Calvin Ridley, who, if you listen to Calvin Ridley talk about Cam Ward, He is glowing with just the differential and kind of what I would say he calls wide receiver friendly passes. And then you've got the journeyman now, you know, last leg Tyler Lockett and a pile of rookies.

7:51So DK is there. I am Anner, Restrepo and don't forget about Van Jefferson, Van Jefferson and Chica Conquo at tight end and Gunner Helmet tight end. So basically, this is why I like Calvin Riddle. Calvin Riddle is looking like a, look, it's going to be, it's probably going to be pretty gross because you have a rookie quarterback throwing him the ball. But how is his target share not 27 plus percent? It does seem that way. I said it before, but like when I, when I originally statted out for the UDK and I, I statted everybody out, I went, Oh, I do not like how high I have Calvin Riddle. Ridley, I had to lower that target share a little bit just to make sure we're not getting too crazy here.

8:37Might I suggest Calvin Ridley could be your my guy this year? Oh, no, thank you. Oh, yeah, no, I would never do that. I said it's going to be kind of gross. Ah, uh-huh. We got word. I mean, where there's smoke, there's a busted toe. Joe Mixon expected to miss multiple weeks of training camp because of what has been described as kind of a frustrating foot injury. He was in a walking boot. We got reports that he was doing well back then. Now he's probably going to miss the preseason. You have a pretty standoffish head coach that doesn't want to give details about what's going on. I have seen multiple reports.

9:19I looked into this right before the show again, and it's like I don't like the vibes, right? Like we're all making some adjustments. I don't like the vibes, but I'm seeing multiple people say, oh, it's being overblown. He'll be back. He's doing fine. I don't know the truth. We don't know the truth. And that's enough to raise the risk factor of Joe Mixon and to allow you to start to consider, you know, what's the backfield going to look like if he's unavailable? Because Nick Chubb, people need to remember, like Nick Chubb was the offseason acquisition. It's not a big deal in Houston financially.

9:51He averaged 3.3 yards per carry in Cleveland. He was not ready to be back. He did not look good, and then the season ended with another injury. So that did not help the progression of returning to form or anything that you want to say. They have Woody Marks. They have Damian Pierce. But this is like kind of a yellow alert at a minimum for Joe Mixon. Yeah, I mean, the truth that we know, you're like, oh, I don't know. Is he okay? Will he be fine? What we know is that he's not fine right now. He can't play football right now. He's frustrated with his foot injury. And, you know, last year, I remember a pretty important running back.

10:26He was injured. He wasn't able to play in camp, but he's going to be fine. He'll be fine for week one. And then everybody drafted him 101 in CMC. And it's like the lesson learned is like you can't necessarily know what the truth is from reports and from expectations and hopes. But you can know what the truth is for current today's availability. And he is currently injured. And the other factors of what we do know, Joe Mixon is 29 years old. That is two years older than the generalized running back age cliff. And he has seen a lot of opportunities in his career. He's been hit a lot. He's taken a lot of carries.

11:12Until we get a much better report, you should be hesitant about drafting him at his ADP. Yeah, earlier we had Joe Mixon in the UDK as a value. This injury is enough to say he's not necessarily a value. He's very, very risky. Brought me so much joy. I know, Mike. Your hatred for Joe Mixon knows no bounds. What about Matthew Stafford? He's not practicing this week. He's supposed to begin practicing. This does remind me of previous camps where managing this back for Stafford has been kind of a five, six-year thing. Yeah, I mean, he's had surgeries on his spine, a lot of back problems over time, but this is also a team that really, really, really rests their guys.

11:58They won't play any preseason if they're healthy or not. You know, McVay talked about that. He's like, well, of course, it's great to have your player out there, but when you've been a veteran for 17 years, it's like you kind of know what you're going to do. For sure. Yeah, Justin Fields, good news, returned to team drills. Oh, man. He had left practice, then he came back out. What was that all about? Came back out, didn't play, and then now he returned to team drills on Monday. Not just team drills. He was in full 11 on 11. We love that. Full go. It must have been one of the lesser important toes.

12:31Yeah, that's got to be ring finger. Ring toe? It's not ring finger on the foot. Why is that? Because it's not a finger. Oh! It can't be. Mike was walking you through like a teacher in second grade. Justin Jefferson. I don't know. Can you? mild hamstring strain for Jefferson held out of practice this week you don't like that news any soft tissue issues reevaluation is next week hopefully he's alright Darnell Mooney shoulder injury looks like most likely an AC joint sprain likely to miss the rest of camp we were talking about this before the show that depth chart one of the reasons that I've liked Darnell Mooney as a late-round flex option at wide receiver because there's really no one else to throw the ball to here.

13:23First of all, Drake London's going to have a massive target share. This is somewhat good news for Drake London. But behind them, you're talking Ray-Ray McLeod. Okay, that's irrelevant for fantasy, but he will go up. DJ Chark, they just added. Sure. And Kyle Pitts. And Kyle Pitts. We are so back. and Kyle Pitts. 24-year-old Kyle Pitts. See, I don't want to say anything positive about Kyle Pitts because I felt like I had measured comments on the last time he came up and I received way too many DMs about how he's going to be a my guy or something. I am rooting for him. That's not going to happen.

14:05I'm rooting for him so hard. Well, look, I looked at it. He should have 600 yards again. Yeah. Oh, for sure. He should have six. I mean, he did it last year and he stunk. So the 49ers have more injuries at wide receiver. Kyle Shanahan told reporters that Juwan Jennings left practice after suffering a calf injury on Sunday. He missed part of the OTAs and minicamp with the calf injury this spring. He is pining for a new contract. Are we sure it's a calf? Yeah, that's that's 100 percent. I feel like his bank account is a little under the weather. It could be. The fact he left middle of practice and dealt with it in OTAs and minicamp, I don't know.

14:48I'm just reporting what Shanahan said. What you do is you make it. Sean Slater got better, by the way. You make an awesome play in camp. You're out there. You make a one-handed grab, go over there, spike the ball, and then go, oh, no. My calf kind of, you know, I think I'm going to sit out until you pay me. Ricky Pearsall activated off of the pup. so that's good news he's like ricky sit down it's ricky i'm doing a thing here i'm trying to do something i'm doing something luther burden return to practice luther burden the third for the bears finally this is great this isn't even returning to practice this is practicing for the first time like he didn't do he didn't do that this is the first time he's been out there colston loveland uh video too nice yeah get them some slow-mo colston loveland video we're gonna be talking a little bit about the Bears receiving here in a bit on this Unsolved Mysteries episode.

15:43Dalton Kincaid did not practice dealing with knee soreness and Kenny Pickett dealing with a hamstring. Noah Fant visiting the Dolphins. Man, the Kenny Pickett with the hamstring injuries, like how is this not Joe Flacco's team for Cleveland? And Dalton Kincaid is just oh my gosh. That guy. The way things have worked in Cleveland so far. is uh Shadur Sanders is the only of the four that hasn't been receiving any first team reps so it's been Dylan Gabriel and Flacco and Pickett Pickett's gonna miss some time what were you gonna add Jay I my first reaction was identical to Mike's which is how is this not Joe Flacco's team and then I worked through that process and thought oh no they're gonna see a lot of Joe Flacco at camp with this great defense I mean he can play himself into like I want the other guy I'm not seeing so I don't think it's a guarantee that it's Flacco right now but you're right it has been you know they said Flacco's going to take the vast majority of first reps there's going to be some drills where they might have Dylan Gabriel involved but Shador Sanders is very very very quiet Cortland Sutton has agreed on a four-year 92 million dollar extension with 41 million guaranteed for the Denver Broncos I love Cortland Sutton the clarity to me in that wide receiver room with Sutton at the tippy top just gets more secured with this deal he was a wide receiver 13 last year if you like Bo Nix if you like Sean Payton if you like the offense if you like their prospects to be a an above 500 playoff contention team I don't see how they do it without Cortland Sutton and the hope is that this guy can go out and give you close to double digit touchdowns again it's so much fun and he's a he's a fifth round pick he was yeah he he looks like a pretty decent value right now.

17:31And like Cortland Sutton was just, if you think about your dynasty leagues, what the value of Sutton was. If you were trying to shop him last year, it was like, even when he was having a good year, people are like, nope, I'm not interested. This is fantastic. Yeah. Unrelated to Cortland Sutton's 29.8 years old contract he's receiving, Terry McLaurin has a calf injury, not really, ankle. He's placed on the pup for an ankle injury. He is not injured. His wallet is injured and he's saying, pay me. Yeah. Terry McLaurin, the fans chanting at camp for him to be signed, but it's been reported there. He wants like DK Metcalf,$33 million a year guaranteed money.

18:07It's being reported, but like who's doing that reporting? Is that the team? Look, if they don't sign Terry McLaurin. That'd be the team or the agent being like, look, he wants that level of money. Yeah, but did you go about that or I feel like the agent would be like, we want to get something done here. I feel like the team would be like, old greedy Terry over here wants to be a top five paid wide receiver. I said this in the office. I think he has paid the dues in Washington for such a long period of time. He has never lacked for talent. He's lacked for stats because they've never had a quarterback.

18:42His talent's always been there. He deserves to get paid. Yes, he's older. It's like a team tax. But there's a tax. Yeah, this is called like. He will be 30. When you enter the category of fan favorite, hometown legend, when you get to a certain point and you haven't been paid, and you probably would have been – he would have been long gone or paid way more money had he had any competent quarterback giving him opportunities. I just – I'll be shocked if they don't get him into camp. He's not there now. I mean, he is, but he isn't. Baker Mayfield, they adjusted his contract, which does expire in 2026.

19:17The 2026 season had no guaranteed money, now has$30 million guaranteed, and they're still trying to talk about a long-term deal for Baker, but now he's not really that lame duck final season situation. So he's got financial security, and that's a lot of news. It is the season. Do you guys have anything else you want to add? Anything else you're finding out over there? No, sir. Traylon Burks have a new team yet? Not yet. We found out B. John Robinson wants to be called Bajon. Oh, yeah. Bajon Robinson. I don't know that he wants to be called that. I think he was just saying that's what his name is.

19:52He's like, this is how you say my name. It was funny because... Well, that thing needs to go in the garbage. We've got to replace that. It's the Bajon Minute now. When he said Bajon, I was like, oh, it's like Dijon mustard. Except for Dijon mustard. Except for you also say Dijon. Yeah. So, I don't know if I'm going to change. We'll find out. We'll see what the commentators do. We'll see what happens. If they're still saying B-Jean, it's going to be weird on this show to be like. See, we did this once with A-Chain. Uh-huh. I mean, now A-Chain sounds broken. Yeah, because it is. But that name was way cooler.

20:26Yeah, Devon A-Chain. That was awesome. And then it was A-Chain. A-Chain. Because of, that's what my name is. Yeah. And it's great because every now and then, this is, you know, peel the curtain back a little bit. Thanks, Halloway. Every now and then, we get told, we get a report of like, oh, we are saying someone's name wrong and they are not important enough for us to adjust or care well but it's like ah this is it's bison man we gotta yeah this one it's like this one we're gonna work on are you worth us getting your name right oh that was like uh njoku because for a long time it was in joku yeah but then then we found us njoku and he played well enough eventually and so we're like okay wait it's performance-based name absolutely absolutely all right we're gonna take a break then we're going to jump into some Unsolved Mysteries.

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22:43I can think of so many situations where that element of being connected while you're on the go is fundamental to fantasy football success. I'm in the midst of multiple leagues right now where I am responding to trade offers. We are massaging the trade offer. We want to make sure that I'm the one that gets the player, not another player manager in our league. So trade offers when you're on the go, all the news that's breaking so you don't make a mistake. And my favorite thing, maybe I'll mention it. Look, you're sitting and you have a quiet moment somewhere out and about. You want to jump in the UDK.

23:14We got the player profiles. You can watch all of those in there with T-Mobile. You can jump in on the player projections and our stat projections and all the 130 ,000 words of content. Again, T-Mobile making that easy to do. Every bit of news. Things are changing all the time. New player contracts, all that good stuff. So from offseason to game day, every play is better with T-Mobile. What you got to do is visit T-Mobile.com slash network. Fastest is based on analysis by Ookla of Speed Test Intelligence Data of National Speed Score results for the second half of 2025. The best mobile network in the U.S.

23:49is based on analysis by Ookla of Speed Test Intelligence Data, second half of 2025.

24:02Unsolved Mysteries.

24:08Well, I'm not going to make the claim that these will be solved mysteries at the end of this segment. That is not really the basis of what we're doing here. But we're going to do our best to speculate on some answers for these unsolved mysteries, situations that we don't currently have definitive answers on. And, you know, we project the UDK. We look at play calling tendencies, obviously offensive changes and head coaching changes and league-wide trends, market shares. These are all things that factor into the way we predict and project players. But there are teams and situations and questions that are very, very difficult to forecast, and we have about five of them we picked out today.

24:48And so I think one of the more interesting ones is where we'll begin, and it's in the Buffalo Bills locker room, which is basically like do the bills either have a wide receiver that you can count on in fantasy or will any of them step up or will they even need to step up because you're coming off a year where josh allen not only won the mvp but was quarterback two in total fantasy points fancy points per game great productive amazing season for fantasy purposes so then dalton kinkade was awesome no right no he wasn't oh it was like the keon coleman breakout yeah yeah nope no and that didn't happen steal of the draft uh khalil shakir didn't even finish in the top 30 so so this is this is the great unsolved mystery of the buffalo offense which this is the only time in the last eight years a top five quarterback didn't have a top 30 wide receiver or top 10 tight end wild and and frankly when i when i look at the depth chart now i only feel like my first gut reaction is that it gets muddier because i think dalton kincaid will be involved i think kalis shakir is the most reliable but keon coleman year two he was injured part of last year they had a very i mean if you want to look at a wide receiver that you just say that's a solid wide receiver josh palmer fits that he's just a solid two three in the nfl and then curtis samuels involved as well and you got three he was that once yeah and there's three running backs you know a pass catching running back as well and so you just you look at this situation and you want to have the you know predetermined uh answer that hey there's two or three four big time producers in this offense but what i think happened last year is you ended up starting players that really never produced for you in a way that mattered but you kept believing that you would get it keon coleman got starts always after like a breakout or a touchdown right that's how you chase points on a team like this is you end up starting them right after a good game and then you get three or four duds and then you're like oh i'm gonna sit them down and then you get a good game from that guy the issue i believe personally is talent i don't think they have a star offensive player they just don't have one when they had one when they had stefan diggs he was awesome and and he got targets you know that you know you're talking about josh allen going 166 targets for stefan diggs 164 targets 160 targets 154 targets he doesn't have an alpha there isn't one on this roster i don't believe that any one of the massive depth chart is good enough alone to be the go-to guy the the go-to guy is Josh Allen.

27:31The go-to guy maybe is James Cook. And so that's the issue is you need a consolidation for fantasy goodness. So when I look at this, my default inclination is no. It's going to be spread around to everyone. There's not going to be a perfect fantasy star. But the second level, second layer question is if anyone is going to be a star and like have their breakout season who would that be i am really look do you still believe dalton kinkade can do that i don't know i don't think in this on the field i don't think in this off and he's hurt again yeah i don't think in this offense because like you said you have to have a consolidation of targets and you have to have a trust of the quarterback and who could possibly earn it i think the highest odds of kind of a slight level up is khalil shakir and I would love to say Keon Coleman but I don't think Keon Coleman can go from what he is now to a target share volume and go to like I want to believe it like from a physical talent standpoint that's what I would pick in a lineup I'd pick Keon Coleman but I just don't see I think the gap is so far away my personal opinion is that no one here is truly going to level up but if I had to make my pick it would certainly be Keon Coleman first of all he doesn't cost as much as Khalil Shakir I think he's like a 10th rounder right now so it's a cheap it's a cheap bet you know sometimes when you make that little parlay you want to throw a dollar on it and you just hope it's a lotto ticket but he's you know he's younger he's more athletic he's got some of the traits and tools and the lack of experience where I can see the path for me Khalil Shakir breaking out is like this is year four he's going into.

29:19Well, but he just got paid. And let me give you his breakout then, okay? Because last year it was 100 targets and 76. I mean, if he went to 120 and got to 85 or 90 receptions. Then he might get 1 ,000 yards. Right. Because last year it was 821. In the back of the seventh or early eighth round, 1 ,000 yards? I don't know. That's like 55 yards a game. Yeah, he's not a threat. He's not a threat for a bunch of touchdowns. He's not a threat to really have a 1 ,200, 1 ,300-yard season. But I don't think Coleman is either. I just don't. Yeah, so then, okay, then the next question is, could it still be Dalton Kincaid, who was supposed to have the breakout last year but dealt with injuries?

30:03It's a lot easier for him to have a meaningful breakout because he's a tight end. So for him – He doesn't have to do as much. He doesn't have to do as much. Like if Dalton Kincaid went out and, I mean, you've got to remember, his rookie season was very promising. Yes, it was. And he's done a little bit of the Kyle Pitts story. And if he was really banged up, and there is this opportunity there, I mean, as a rookie, 73 for 673, and then the regression last year, I – He did not look good on the field last year. And so you want to – the only excuse for me is he was injured. But then when the report comes out literally today that he's currently dealing with knee soreness.

30:43Well, we know what the problem is. Right, and if the problem's still there, it's hard for me to buy in. I feel like I'm just out on the bills. If Dalton Kincaid had six touchdowns his rookie season and kept all the numbers the same, that's like a top seven, top six tight end. His rookie year, you're saying? Yeah, which was 73 for 670. That's where you're calling it. He's doing his Kyle Pitzing, where he comes out and has a rookie, shows enough flashes, gets enough yards, looks like he should really level up. Kinkade could score six to eight times. That could happen. And if that happens, you've got a breakout.

31:15But I don't think any of us are buying into any of this happening. No, not those two guys. I'm over here contemplating, can Josh Palmer do it? He got$18 million guaranteed to come over. Matt Collins, that's what I was trying to think of. The Matt Collins production, if that's all Josh Palmer gets, and it won't be anything but an occasional weekly you hit on a spot start. But I think I'm with – I kind of side with Jason of I'm out on the bills, anyone taking the steps. So are you out on these guys that are ADP? I am fine. Because each of those guys will have a handful of – even Khalil Shakira. There will be a handful of weeks where you're like, oh, man, Shakira really was the reason I won this week.

32:04I do not want any of these bills that is going to be a couple weeks out of the year. Matt Collins had three amazing weeks last season. He was the wide receiver 80 on the season. That's a perfect summary. The Matt Collins situation, you can't start these things. No. They want to run. That's why at ADP, personally, I'm fine taking Keon Coleman. He's going into year two. He was drafted to be the future replacement of the big loss of Stephon Diggs. not necessarily the same archetype player, but they knew they needed a really special wide receiver. And I can see a world where he becomes that red zone target.