Fantasy Football - WR Rankings Countdown: 20-11 + Keenan's Back! - Podcast for 8/6

10:49Jason Moore:I 100 % fat fingered that button I was like Andy's riffing man I'm so gonna just let him do this this is why

10:59Mike Wright:this is why George Kittle was right

11:01Jason Moore:yeah George Kittle

11:03Mike Wright:George Kittle is very upset right now and we have some smelling salts in the building, and I'm going to toss one over to Josh because we got to get on board here. So the NFL came out.

11:14Jason Moore:The NFL came out and actually banned smelling salts.

11:19Andy Holloway:There you go, Papa Josh. I saw it, and I was like, NFL, what are we doing? Go ahead, Josh. And then there were... Oh, Josh is... Oh! Whoa, Josh! You're not supposed to smell them. I deserve that, man. Oh!

11:34Jason Moore:holy moly if you go to youtube that's why they banned it you went hardcore after that thing your eyes are going to bleed out of your ears kiddo would be very right the lightning brother

11:45Andy Holloway:uh the there was more there was more follow-up on it and they were talking about uh i mean some other concerns but also they were saying at least hiding it under is it concussion concussion oh that makes perfect being able to mask a concussion because you snap out of it and as one i'm very pro brain health and people keeping their brains as healthy as we possibly can with uh this gladiator sport that they play big brain i was like ah okay nfl you you win this time

12:18Jason Moore:so george kittle said he he wanted to uh he considered retirement when this came through because he uses smelling salts before every single drive. That can't be good for you.

12:28Andy Holloway:No, it cannot.

12:28Jason Moore:Did you just see Papa Josh and what happened to his brain? Have you seen interviews with George Kittle?

12:34Mike Wright:He does seem like a man that is on something. He seems like a man who's had a lot of smelling salts. All right. And he's a good time. Papa Josh is awake, and we never need him more awake. What happened? Can I circle back here? Yeah, yeah, please. Before the camera went off of me mid-Matthew Stafford conversation, um aggravated disc management issue the risk rating is very high and i i you know i expected big things from the rams offense yeah with matthew stafford it gets really really difficult if you take him off the field oh yeah for puka nakua and davante adams because both of those guys are target monsters both of those guys are go-to receivers and you put them both in an offense that's led by Jimmy Garoppolo.

13:22Mike Wright:Let me give you a hypothetical. Let's say you run a simulation, and let's say you put Jimmy Garoppolo as Devontae Adams' quarterback. Okay. Try to run the simulation.

13:31Andy Holloway:I'm trying to picture how that could look.

13:33Mike Wright:Yeah, just try to picture maybe.

13:34Andy Holloway:I'm going to go back to a sample.

13:36Mike Wright:Go to like, let's just put him on a team randomly, like the Raiders.

13:40Andy Holloway:Yeah.

13:40Mike Wright:How did that go?

13:42Andy Holloway:There is a very particular clip of Devontae Adams on the sideline using. words, not safe for word, words and saying, I need to get out of here because of the murder balls. Because I'm getting destroyed on every play.

13:58Mike Wright:Yeah, there is an execution of the offense that Stafford can do that Jimmy Garoppolo won't be able to do, in my opinion. Now, he might be fine.

14:05Andy Holloway:I'm okay with Jimmy for a game or two, but this is now at the point where and Matthew Stafford, he has proven it time and time again. He'll play through pain. He is very, very tough and will play through.

14:19Mike Wright:I wonder how the smelling salts and Matthew Stafford were working together.

14:23Andy Holloway:Yeah, he's going to find him in the blue tent. But this is really troubling that you might have a ticking time bomb. Puka is a first round.

14:35Mike Wright:Puka is ahead of Amon Ra, Neighbors, Collins, Brian Thomas, London, A.J. Brown. I would not want him over those guys if I had the fear.

14:44Jason Moore:I love Puka so much, and I like Puka with Stafford more than those players, but today I actually moved. Usually I just do the risk rating and make sure that you know what you're getting into, but I actually artificially moved Puka down a few spots. I wanted him to be behind Malik Nabors and Nico Collins because I do think he carries risk that isn't his fault. But if I was sitting there and I can choose Malik Nabors, like if Malik Nabors' quarterback goes down, he might get better.

15:13Mike Wright:if Jameis comes in great you know who is the number two by the way they Jackson Dart the

15:17Jason Moore:number three on the unofficial dub chart so um yeah I mean there there's worry Stafford playing 17 this year feels like a tall task not that it can't happen not that Stafford won't be there week one you know baby ready with his epidural but um you know I was trying to figure out what you meant but now I get that's the only time I've ever seen someone get an epidural that's to have a baby and

15:40Andy Holloway:And I will tell you what you can't do after you have an epidural. Oh, yeah. That would be play football. Yeah, walk.

15:47Mike Wright:Like, I don't know. Look, it is concerning. He has played through pain, and this could be one of those things where, look, if he's healthy and active, you get a deal on Puka or Devontae Adams. But it's just not what you want to hear this time of year. Speaking of 17 games being unlikely, Kenneth Walker. How dare you? Return to practice.

16:06Andy Holloway:I told you he was resting. Three days. He is rested up and ready to practice.

16:12Jason Moore:How many games do you think he'll rest this year?

16:15Andy Holloway:I think he will rest two to three games. I love it. I love it. When you are number one in forced missed tackles and your offensive line has made you almost dead last in yards before contact, you've got to take a few rests. It's exhausting.

16:36Mike Wright:for a 3.7 yards per carry with that many broken tackles he's doing so much running for so little

16:43Jason Moore:yardage it is he is a fascinating case because I've gone complete 180 on him I came into this offseason ready to be so so in on Kenneth Walker and take the chance take the risk this year because when he's out there he is a phenomenal fantasy player phenomenal running back he's he's but he is really good. And I have gotten to the point where I'm like, I'm letting other people. Okay.

17:08Andy Holloway:Well, then I will happily scoop him up. You will scoop him up right behind me. The offensive line for Seattle has at least some improvements, and I think that the Cubs running system really helps an offensive line that maybe not be the strongest. Get that scheme going. Maybe. Schemes make dreams.

17:30Jason Moore:Is that what they say, Jake? Yeah, that's what Cubs says.

17:36Mike Wright:Tyreek Hill absent from today's practice due to an undisclosed injury so there you go Darren Waller still a week away from practice good lord Darren Waller what was he doing he's ramping up

17:48Jason Moore:he's been ramping up for a month they said they're eager to see him exactly at first it was he has stayed in such great shape no he has not and then it's like he can't play football

18:01Andy Holloway:he's not ready it is definitely a there's a difference between being in excellent shape and being in football shape but this is this feels like a really long time for a player and then they were bringing in no offense like after yeah after they you know traded for darren

18:17Jason Moore:waller it's like we should just take a look at no offense too uh at cole comet left practice

18:22Mike Wright:early on tuesday but avoided serious injury and uh we did get some preseason information on starter situation. Shadour Sanders is going to start for the Browns. Anthony Richardson

18:33Andy Holloway:I read a comment that said he's starting week one despite not having reps with the ones. Wonderful.

18:44Mike Wright:Is he playing with other ones in that game? I don't know. Or is it just a bunch of the people he's been playing with? That's a wild situation. Cam Ward and the starters will play in every preseason game. That's smart, I think.

18:58Andy Holloway:The news on preseason and starters being involved is great. The way it used to be was get your starters the heck out of preseason. We don't want an injury for a meaningless football game. But I think we now have enough data of the last few years of offenses starting so slow. See the Bengals. Yeah, the Bengals are going to play some of their starters at least for a series or two. And the Cardinals said that they were going to play some starters. The Raiders said they were going to play starters.

19:33Mike Wright:You can get hurt. We have all the clips. We watch training camp. Players are flying around. You watch the family night games, the offensive, defensive matchups. They're flying around, tackling each other, going up. Players are going to get hurt. I would rather practice a little bit out there on the field and get game speed up.

19:51Andy Holloway:I've changed over.

19:52Jason Moore:I want some preseason stuff.

19:53Mike Wright:We might actually enjoy week one a little bit more too.

19:55Jason Moore:I think it does depend on the team.

19:56Mike Wright:you know like if you've got you know Matthew Stavridor should not play exactly exactly yeah

20:01Jason Moore:a 17 year vet who's worked in the system has a Super Bowl under that system you know what I mean like Mahomes they don't need to they don't need to put them out there I mean I'm not saying whether they will or won't but you know if you've got like the Bengals who every single year start so slow they don't play any other starters in the preseason and then they start you know 0-2, 2-4 every year. It's like, maybe just act like the preseason is season and then start 0-2 in the preseason and then win when the season starts.

20:32Mike Wright:Now, obviously, we'll completely take back everything we said of anybody important. First injury gets hurt.

20:38Andy Holloway:It all goes on. What a bunch of idiots.

20:40Mike Wright:Anthony Richardson starting the first preseason game. Daniel Jones will start the second preseason game. So that's the plan for the Colts and that is the rest of the news and notes sponsored by Progressive Insurance. Quote today at Progressive.com, Progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and third-party insurers. Not available in all states or situations. Coverage subject to policy terms, limits, and conditions. We'll take a break, and we'll start counting down the whiteouts.

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22:08Jason Moore:This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. If you could wake up tomorrow morning going to be better at one thing, what would that be and what? For me, it would be just getting started on that workout, get my exercise going. You know, better doesn't have to come from major victories. It can be from the small habits you create and how you honor your needs on a daily basis. Most people aren't trying to become completely different. They're just hoping to feel a little better every day. Better is a feeling defined by you. And for BetterHelp, it's a BetterHelp therapist who really gets you. It's a focus on global emotional well-being with thousands of therapists and millions of members in over 100 countries.

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23:19Mike Wright:All right, we are looking at the wide receiver 20 down to probably 11 today. We'll see where we get. And then we'll jump into the top 10 tomorrow. These are more interesting sometimes because more debate, more variance in rankings as opposed to more consensus with the top guys. Looking at the half PPR rankings today, it's probably a good time, Jason, to remind people about the tiered rankings and the importance of tier-based drafting because there are gaps between groups of wide receivers that really matter when you're drafting.

23:55Jason Moore:Yeah, for sure. When we do our rankings, sometimes it's as simple as if you ended up giving someone a half touchdown more, they go up four or five spots. They're really in a group of players that all have a similar range of outcomes. But when you draft just based on rankings, you can get really wrong conclusions. When you lose value. Yeah, when you need to take a player at a certain position. So if you've got the ultimate draft kit, we break everything down into tiers within each position. So, you know, like, OK, we feel like, you know, these two players.

24:33Mike Wright:Sorry, I was just going to say, like, the gap between, like, wider tier 20 and 21 last year was over two points per game. There are gaps like that that we believe, you know, you want to be drafting a guy towards the back of a tier, not necessarily starting the next group.

24:46Jason Moore:Yeah, you don't want to take the second guy out of a tier. or yeah, when you start a tier, you're just not getting the value there. Because if you were to grab one around or two later that are in that same tier and then instead with that first pick have gone to the last guy at a running back, you know, tier that is about to dry up, you just end up with a far stronger roster.

25:11Mike Wright:I was told I didn't hit this button.

25:16Mike Wright:Wide receivers. Oh, thank God. I also recognize that I didn't hit that button. I wasn't just told. I also knew that.

25:23Andy Holloway:Well, sometimes you forget.

25:25Mike Wright:Totally did it on purpose. All right, number 20 on our rankings, Jameson Williams. It is certainly my ranking that is pulling him up into our top 20.

25:35Andy Holloway:Me and Jay are not. I mean, I guess ranking-wise. You are above ADP, yes. But we are not that far behind the rank of 20.

25:44Mike Wright:No, I think a good thing to do, People have heard me talk about Jamison Williams this offseason. They know I'm a fan. I think it might be important as I lay some of these things out just to get specifically an opinion from you guys on what might go wrong for Jamison Williams this year because I'm very excited, the potential, the 24-year-old speedster in this offense that has kind of committed to being more of a downfield offense this year. And you ask yourself, well, Jared Goff didn't do that. He was the third lowest percentage of attempts, 20-plus yards down the field. What does that mean? Well, he was good when he did it.

26:20Mike Wright:That was the thing. He was third in fantasy points per drop back when he did throw it down the field. I can think of a couple years ago when I made Mike Evans my guy. Part of that was on the basis of the success rate of Baker Mayfield throwing the ball down the field. He was very effective, speaking of Jared Goff, when he did do that. But they've talked about Jamison Williams and the fact that basically they've locked him in to a couple of spots, which has allowed him to establish a better route tree and become more integrated in the offense. And we have spent offseason after offseason after offseason of more critical comments from the head coach and offensive coordinators.

27:02Mike Wright:Those are not present anymore. And so I think a breakout is in store. but talk to me a little bit about maybe the opposite perspective a devil's advocate approach

27:11Andy Holloway:sure i would start with uh i've mentioned some of the adp studies i've been working on of you know part of my concern with jsn is guys that break out in year two we steam their adp up and then they uh they actually become like a 50 50 of well will they return value on their where you took them the expectation for them to score. Meanwhile, guys that break out in year three, they have them at ADP returning value to you. It's a really, really high hit rate.

27:44Mike Wright:That's a feather in the Jamison Williams cap.

27:46Andy Holloway:Exactly. So that's where I wanted to start and point that out. The journey of Jamison Williams is interesting. I mean, he was coming into the draft hurt. He had the torn ACL. He ends up only playing six games. it's a tough season then you have the next year and you have the gambling suspension and and then year three he finishes as a top 20 wide receiver so based off his draft his draft pedigree and the ADP study he's he becomes very very interesting to me uh and I'm in but if you want me to play devil's advocate that would be I think it's pretty easy to do of the variables are here number one ben johnson is gone the offensive coordinator that is we've seen that be huge hits for teams you know sometimes it doesn't matter and they just continue rolling on but we've also seen times where the offense becomes you see the philadelphia eagles they changed off they had to change offensive coordinators they did not keep rolling and that offensive coordinator did not stick around to philadelphia for very long then on on top of that their defense was just so beat up and depleted that they had to score more points, and this is a high-T team.

29:04Andy Holloway:And then combine that with, you know, while the reviews on Jameson over camp and everything have been glowing, there was weird buzz around the draft of, is Jameson Williams going to get traded? Then they spend not only a third-round pick on Isaac Tesla, they traded two future thirds to go spend a third round on a player who would be a same archetype of downfield, stretch the field and take the top off. That would be what could go wrong for Jamison Williams to me.

29:40Jason Moore:Yeah, there are definite ways it can go wrong, but I'm in on Jamison Williams. This is a guy who is being drafted as the wide receiver 27. He finished last year as the wide receiver 18, and he missed two games. So this is, I think right now you're drafting him at what his floor is, but he is one of the players that does have breakout potential. He's, you know, one of those drafted to be great guys coming out of college was supposed to be a superstar. And we had a lot of reports, even kind of behind the scenes of him being a little bit of a knucklehead, maybe worried about work ethic. And then those, those came through in those first few years.

30:18Jason Moore:with him. So it all matched. And at that point, it seemed like, I don't know that this very talented player is ever going to get it together. But it seems like he's got it together. And the fact that the coaching staff is saying good things, and they're locking him in, and they've figured out how to use him, there is breakout potential with Jameson Williams. And if he just goes out and has a ho-hum season, he's probably still better than the wide receiver 27 where he's being drafted.

30:42Mike Wright:I guess he's under contract next year, right?

30:46Andy Holloway:Well, yeah, there would be the fifth-year option.

30:48Mike Wright:Yeah, so that would be a club option for next season? Yeah. So that was some of the debate you were talking about with the trade. I'm just trying to think of what the motivation level is for Jamison Williams. Because that's oftentimes, like if you look at the historical top-tier guys, I mentioned it the other day, at this age, it's also like with that next contract on the horizon. Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase and those guys, when that money is sitting out there, and whether it's on Detroit or someplace else,

31:17Jason Moore:it's always a motivating factor 24 years old is a great age to grab a breakout wide receiver

31:21Mike Wright:number 19 davante adams of the los angeles rams 30 not 24 years 32 years old will be 33 soon uh i have him the lowest of the three of us we have him at 19 by consensus

31:35Andy Holloway:but we'll see we'll see where he is by the end of the day with all the jared goff or i'm not sorry

31:40Mike Wright:not jared goff uh matthew stafford going back in time a little bit i actually did already move him

31:44Jason Moore:down from this uh because of the matthew stafford uh news so i've got him at 19 you are still a

31:51Mike Wright:couple spots lower two years 46 million dollar contract last year thanks to aaron rogers ran way fewer in and dig routes had a lot more corner routes with rogers you can expect more motion with los angeles yes you can that's one of the things that they do with their receivers i i think we all look to adams is you know not quite leading the team in targets we think puka is that guy but the touchdown potential boy that's a variance with Stafford or without for sure and so with

32:21Jason Moore:Stafford he can have a lot I think he could have a lot of touchdowns although Stafford has really not been a touchdown machine over the last few years Kyron is yeah very greedy Kyron has been very greedy and just got paid but if you look at the second wide receiver next to Puka Nakua you know last year Cooper Cup we we look not fondly upon what happened because he disappeared at the end of the season. But if you look at the lead up to that and years prior, what the system can do, even with a very incredibly heavily targeted Puka Nakua, the first nine games played from Cooper Cup, he missed a couple of games for injury early.

33:00Jason Moore:He was on pace for 171 targets himself. And that's a nine game sample. So this is the opportunity for a lot of volume for Devontae Adams is here and the team went out with their transactions and believed look we want to go from Cooper Cup to Devante Adams we think Cooper Cup has lost x y or z and we think Devante Adams has what we're looking for now this is also the team that went out and paid a big bag of money for Allen Robinson it doesn't mean that all their ideas and scouting is perfect but if they are correct that Devante Adams still has it and he certainly still looked like he had it last year

33:34Mike Wright:the role on this offense is great and i do i do love him with stafford getting into the end zone the least amount of touchdowns he scored in the last five years is eight on a season it was 18 11 14 8 and 8 the last two years and last year you saw the first half of the season when he was not a member of the jets i mean you had finishes outside the top 50 in three of the first four weeks he played with them so you you can see it can go bad he's risky and i think he would be i think the mental side of like if stafford wasn't available and you just decided to get out of a bad situation and go into another jimmy garoppolo i can't even imagine i just think

34:14Jason Moore:he would just lose it i think he might just retire like just walk off the field out for the year and

34:20Andy Holloway:he goes yeah me too i mean i am also out for the year right um the uh what the the parsons the i I don't want to be here anymore. Yeah, yeah.

34:33Mike Wright:18, his teammate last year, Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets just signed the big contract. You know, you had the offseason quotes from Aaron Glenn, what he's learning about Garrett Wilson, just give him the ball as much as possible. That's right, Aaron. That really hasn't been an issue for Garrett Wilson ever. Like, there's never been a coach that didn't say that because the target totals, 147, 168, 154. I think they're trying to give it to him as much as possible.

35:01Jason Moore:And it's not going to change this year. They have no one else to throw the ball to. I mean, they lost Conklin. They lost Devontae Adams. Even the rookie replacement. Josh Reynolds. Exactly. And Josh Reynolds is the two. I mean, you know, they bring in Mason, who's dealing with. Mason Taylor. Yeah, Mason Taylor, their rookie tight end, to replace Tyler Conklin. And now he's dealing with a high ankle sprain. So Garrett Wilson is going to be massively targeted. I am finding myself more and more and more in on Garrett Wilson this year. Oh, really? Yeah. Welcome aboard. When I'm an ADP and I'm looking at his name, I'm excited to take him.

35:41Jason Moore:Now, the view I have on Garrett Wilson is that I think he's a very good wide receiver. I do not believe Garrett Wilson is a great – like I don't think he is a Justin Jefferson. I don't think he's a Jamar Chase.

35:53Mike Wright:well okay those are those are those are great all capitals but i'm just looking for just the first

35:58Jason Moore:letter no i i i get i get that but i my point is if you were to switch garrett wilson and jamar chase on their you know respective respective teams i don't think garrett wilson could do what jamar chase does um i don't think any of us would argue that though by any stretch i don't think many

36:13Andy Holloway:people out there would i mean he would be better than t higgins here's the here's the devil's

36:18Mike Wright:advocate case for for garrett wilson we we already have the evidence we already have the evidence that he can be the highest volume most important most targeted wide receiver and finish outside the top 30 yeah that's happened he yeah he had 168 target year he finished at wide receiver 32 with three touchdowns he scored seven times last year thank you aaron rogers you're gonna need to score like five plus times in this offense otherwise you will be disappointed in the fantasy finish

36:46Jason Moore:I would agree with that. And if you want to project touchdowns for him this year, Justin Fields does not project to be as good as Aaron Rodgers at that specifically. And the offense projects to be worse than it was last year without Devontae Adams. And, you know, so maybe the touchdowns aren't going to be there for him. I've got him projected for six touchdowns this season, which I think is a good number. But that is, sadly, that feels like an optimistic outcome.

37:15Mike Wright:There's been some negative press around Justin Fields' performance in recent days in Keene. There has. Also, I just think he's just been so up and down as a passer in his career, so that'll be an interesting situation to watch. But we have him slotted in at 18.

37:31Andy Holloway:Yeah, we're all hoping for that DJ Moore year. I think what we don't know for sure is just what does the Jets' offense look like? you know they uh coach glenn brought his buddy tanner over from detroit so i would imagine they're going to do their best to replicate and duplicate that which would put him from full house yes perfect uh so i mean i imagine it will be you know pieces of that that type of an offense so do they do they try and almond raw that the the role for for Garrett

38:12Mike Wright:Wilson that we we don't know yet yeah I do think that I mean there's a reason he's he's not in our top 10 right I mean we're talking about wide receiver 18 there are lots of questions and there will be lots of targets and we hope that translates really well he could be a value right now his ADP is the wide receiver 15 in the third round I've got him right at wide receiver 15 personally yeah I was gonna say I think I have some guys that I might choose over him just on

38:39Jason Moore:offensive optimism but I think I get it I think the interesting name to me is is Tyreek Hill like Tyreek Hill or Garrett Wilson they're very you know you've got one guy where you've got to have a question about whether he's really lost it the other guy's obviously up and coming still young youthful the clear one on his team but Tyreek has that wide receiver one range of outcomes still I think that's you know if he hasn't lost it if it was the wrist last year if um two has got there but how do you play and for me if I'm staring down that decision I'm going to Garrett

39:13Mike Wright:yeah one of the things uh Garrett Wilson's a dot has dropped three straight years so you're not getting that it's very opposite of Tyreek Hill on the big plays DK Metcalf comes in at 17 Metcalf uh I have ranked the highest of the three of us starting the uh Aaron Rodgers era I don't know if you guys saw the aaron rogers uh some of the camp stuff from yesterday about which the glaring at roman wilson so no i i mean he glares at everybody i mean he's glare he's had a glare at everybody policy for six years now but um that can't feel good no it was more like how slow he was going through some of these drills like he just looked he just looked really really slow going through some of these drills um but metcalf uh you know we've talked about him in recent in recent days when he's over 130 targets he ends up definitely outpacing his ADP here which is wide receiver 22 you know they they paid him all that money he is the alpha he might be their wide receiver one through three and then they begin at wide receiver four I mean that's kind of how it's very possible I look at things it's been a roller coaster in Seattle this is a guy that's never quite lived up to the potential in my opinion like I think physically speed wise this guy should have been a perennial top like where he started seattle wide receiver seven wide receiver 12 second and third season that should have been it feels like he should have been a

40:40Jason Moore:hall of fame wide receiver like go get that yellow jacket so i don't know if it's the eating candy

40:45Mike Wright:all day long i don't know what it is i'm pretty sure that's part of it but uh you know he missed some time last year with an mcl sprain and here we go it was very good for davante adams to have Aaron Rodgers last year. It was good for Garrett Wilson, finishing the top 10 with Aaron Rodgers. You know, I see Metcalf as a value.

41:03Andy Holloway:The thing about Metcalf is it should work. On paper, it should work. Rodgers, for how we look at how he played last year, it felt like Aaron Rodgers was not good, and the Jets were not good, but when Garrett Wilson was the wide receiver one, Garrett Wilson was awesome for fantasy and then Devontae Adams came and took that role and then Devontae Adams was very good for for fantasy football they Pittsburgh made the investment they said we're going to take DK over George Pickens they trade draft capital for him they give him the big bag of money he's the number one guy for Aaron Rodgers it should work the it's just it it's hard to get over for me, you know, DK Metcalf just the last three years being a disappointment from where you drafted him.

41:55Andy Holloway:Not that wide receiver 18 or 16 is terrible by any stretch, but it's disappointing from where you drafted him. And then you have the giant bugaboo in the room of Arthur Smith. What does this offense look like? Arthur Smith has toyed with our emotions for several years of having what we consider to be elite fantasy football players, and those guys just don't come through. Like Bijan didn't come through until Arthur was gone. Drake London didn't come through until Arthur was gone. So I have these concerns about where he is going. I guess the price isn't too bad. He's in the fifth. I have concerns overall with the situation and the profile.

42:43Jason Moore:It's really hard for me to see how it goes poorly for DK Metcalf. You know, Matthew Stafford hasn't been a great fantasy asset in years, but he makes wide receivers unbelievable. Aaron Rodgers does not have to be a great fantasy asset on his own for him to hyper-target DK Metcalf and have him be fantastic. I mean, the touchdown totals that we were just talking about that came through for Devontae Adams or for Garrett Wilson last year, those came from Aaron Rodgers. This is a team where, I mean, DK Metcalf, who is he competing against? like Calvin Austin Robert Woods no he's competing against four tight ends starting on a single play Roman Wilson Ben Skironic I mean there's it's going to be the DK Metcalf show he'll have 140 targets and they will be decent targets and the thing for

43:34Andy Holloway:what I'm talking about with Arthur is like if you guys haven't seen you know the heat maps of the types of routes that these guys are running like number ones and look george pickens was the number one guy for the steelers and you look at how bland and unoriginal the routes were for george pickens versus other number one wide receivers it's aaron rogers is never going to accept like i was literally about

44:01Jason Moore:to say the same thing that's your coach that's your offensive coordinator 100 this is one of those you know he's not dealing with desmond ritter no where he can make him do whatever or try to protect, you know.

44:12Mike Wright:Russell Wilson last year.

44:14Jason Moore:Yeah, and hide Justin Fields. This is, Aaron Rodgers is going to go out there, and I think maybe in the beginning he's going to give it a shot. See what Arthur's plan is. And then he's going to throw that in the garbage if he doesn't like it. Be like, all right, DK, here's what you're actually running.

44:27Mike Wright:And I understand. Last year there were expectations for George Pickens that weren't met, but I'm with Jason on that one. I do not like Arthur Smith, though, if that's important to the equation.

44:39Jason Moore:Dude, I love Caleb Johnson so much. And every time I think about how much I love Caleb Johnson, Arthur's just sitting on my shoulder going, Number two.

44:49Andy Holloway:And for everything negative that I just said about DK Metcalf, I have him ranked above his ADP. Nope, you don't get out of it. I'm just saying that I guess the price is acceptable.

45:02Mike Wright:All right, we'll take a break, and then we get to come back and talk about another player impacted by a recent signing.

45:10Andy Holloway:This episode is sponsored by PrizePix. Football is back and PrizePix is giving users a new promo every day during stacked September. Sign up now for guaranteed picks every Monday along with profit boosts and daily discounts. You just pick two to six players, then pick more or less based on their projected stats. Josh Allen is tearing things up. Is there a projection that he can't pass the moron? Well, tune in on Sundays and find out. Download the app today and use code FOOTBALLERS to get$150 instantly in lineups if you win your first$5 lineup. Prize picks. Run your game. In business, there's the easy way with Staples or the hard way.

45:53Andy Holloway:At Staples, easy means guidance from real human experts and workplace solutions you can count on whether you're outfitting an office, stocking the break room, managing facilities, or printing materials for your next big meeting. It's no wonder they're trusted by 75 % of the Fortune 500. Don't choose hard. Choose Staples. Learn more at staples.com.

46:19Mike Wright:Lad McConkie comes in at number 16 on our wide receiver rankings.

46:23Andy Holloway:Wow. Did you guys nerf him that much, or did you just have him that low? No, no, no. This was moved down from the... Wow.

46:30Mike Wright:Mike, or not Mike, Jason had him moved a lot more. I had him at 16 before the move. He's at 18 for me after the move with Keenan Allen, and that is – look, McConkie's awesome. Yeah, he is. He's a great player. The offense, though, and the priority of this team is going to be to run the football, to run it well, to be willing to throw it to whoever's open, and there's more players involved now than there were at the end of last year. And I just don't see McConkie scoring double-digit touchdowns. So it's not like my projection for him is like he's the target leader on the entire team. I have him as the target leader as well.

47:10Mike Wright:I mean, I have him with very similar numbers that he had last year. More completions in total because he didn't play a full 17-game season last year. But Keenan Allen is a target monster. I mean, he had a ton last year. 121 targets in Chicago, missing two games with an injury. Adding that to the offense is significant enough to move him down a couple spots.

47:30Jason Moore:Yeah, Ladd McConkie is awesome. All three of us here adore and love Ladd McConkie. He was one of my favorite players going in last year. But last year he had a 22.9 % target share. I've got him down at a 21 % market share with Keenan Allen there with more quality wide receivers to throw the ball to and Tyler Conklin and a good receiver out of the backfield. Two good receivers. I think Najee is a decent receiver out of the backfield. So I believe this is a team that has an extremely smart quarterback. Justin Herbert will find the right guy. You know, I don't think he's going to hyper target anyone.

48:09Jason Moore:I think he's going to spread the ball around and he's got a lot of targets to go to now. So I really like Ladd. I like his talent. I love this offense. But he did move down quite a bit for me just from a reality of he can't, he can't, unless Keenan goes down or something happens he can't be up there at 28 percent of the team's target I just can't imagine that being his type of season with what this team wants to do and what what I

48:34Andy Holloway:believe their personnel allows them to be capable of doing sure I don't have lad anywhere near that type of a target share but I still have him I moved him down I think a spot like I still have him inside my top 12 he's at number 10 currently for me uh as great as you know I think Keenan still has things to offer but a rising superstar in year two who broke out massively in year one including a dominant playoff game like that matters to me if you can go out on the biggest stage in your first ever playoff game and be a huge part of the offense uh I'm not going to let a 33-year-old Keenan Allen stopped me from drafting Ladd McConkie when you're saying Herbert's going to find the right guy.

49:24Andy Holloway:I think the right guy is still Ladd McConkie. I think that Ladd can operate anywhere on the football field just with his instincts and his football IQ and toughness. So I'm still drafting him. His ADP is very high.

49:40Mike Wright:It's wide receiver 11. So Jason and I are the outlier there. It will adjust.

49:44Jason Moore:Yeah, his ADP is established before the

49:46Mike Wright:news this morning of the keenan allen signing so i don't think it goes down too much but so like i told i told you this morning jay i barely move lad in response to the keenan he went from wide receiver 15 to 20 for me yeah i mean it it i agree that it's not that significant for lad it's just a matter of how much you know you add two talented rookie wide receivers you add keenan allen you've got a running game um i i just think the dependency is is not going to go up on lad mcconkey so i think he's about where he was last year he was 15th in points per game last season obviously ramped up in the second half where he was the wide receiver eight in fantasy overall we saw an adjustment on herbert's passing uh percentages does that is that the plan or is that a result of the that's a big question jk dobbins efficiency dipping into the 2.9 yards per carry range in the second half of the season that is um i i certainly think that is part of it they weren't able to run

50:44Jason Moore:the ball and so they said well we can throw the ball with Herbert with Najee and Omari and Hampton I think they're going to be able to run the ball their defense has been improved so the this really comes down to ironically Justin Herbert's passing attempts like you know we're talking about what's the target share it really does you know I've got him at 21 percent target share maybe he goes to 23 percent target share but what share of what are they going to be able to run the ball as much as they want to and not throw it um you know tbd but you know like you said lad was wide receiver 15 in points per game last year adding keen and adding a couple solid uh wide receivers and adding tyler conklin i think the ball gets spread around just a bit more and number 15 tyreek hill

51:26Mike Wright:of the miami dolphins the great uh will he return to form question he was not good last year i mean And you had, we've talked about it a lot this offseason, but only two games of 20-plus fantasy points. You couldn't start him with confidence even when Tua was back. The big plays were not there. He had more snaps last year, half the yards. So, you know, there was a wrist injury. That's just bad math. There was a surgery and a wrist injury. There were a lot of changes to the offense that didn't look right. I talked about this yesterday. I'm worried about the Dolphins being that team that if something just tips the wrong way early on, is Mike McDaniels going to be there long term?

52:11Mike Wright:And now you've got another injury you heard this morning about Tyreek Hill. I also really like Jalen Waddle this year. The camp reports around Jalen Waddle are very positive. I hear what you're saying.

52:22Andy Holloway:I was a year too early.

52:23Mike Wright:You might have been. You might have been. I did joke with Jason yesterday. I was like, my guy Jalen Waddle for Mike a second time in a row. so you know where are you with Tyreek and his ADP?

52:36Jason Moore:Tyreek is someone you just have to make your call on whether because I don't think there's a world where at his ADP is where he finishes right now he's being drafted as the wide receiver 13 he's either great and you're getting a steal at wide receiver 13 or he is more done than you know what what you saw last year in 211 more snaps he had 840 fewer yards he wasn't good for your team you know what was he wide receiver 20 something last year so he's you know another year older there's plenty yeah wide receiver 23 last year

53:13Andy Holloway:second half was significantly better than than the opener when where two was gone but it still was not tyreek hill it wasn't the numbers of the the number one overall yeah the wide receiver the

53:26Jason Moore:chunk without Tua obviously hurt. If Tua plays a whole season, there are routes where this can be great. For me personally, I feel like I'm out on Tyree Kill for where he is. I like other wide receivers better, and I just don't want to be caught holding the bag if he's lost a step, because the Tyree Kill plays, they just didn't happen last year.

53:45Mike Wright:All right, number 14, Mike Evans, and this was a home run my guy picked two years ago that I'm now going to be the lowest on Mike Evans of this group going into this season. I'm going to make, I think, the streak ends this year. I don't think Mike Evans gets to 1 ,000 receiving yards. I think this is the beginning of the end for Mike Evans. Wow. The touchdowns, those will be there. I'm fine with that. But I do think you're going to start to see the decline, and I think that's part of their plan in drafting Egbuka, in giving the money to Godwin. jaylen mcmillan is still going to be involved so mike evans comes in at 14 but i got him at 19 uh which you know jason you're ahead of adp i've got him a wide receiver 12 he is a wide receiver

54:31Jason Moore:one to me which he finished last year despite missing uh yeah so where do you weigh in mike

54:37Andy Holloway:in comparison i was going to pass it off to jason because i'm i am closer to your side andy of you know the when the season opened i guess we have to find out what this new offense looks like because to start last year if you had taken Mike Evans and then watched Chris Godwin be draft many rounds later you were very upset with yourself because Godwin was the one who was absolutely on fire Mike Evans was really not great for your team and then it was after the Godwin injury then they start feed force feeding Mike Evans all those targets so with with an emergence of McMillan and then Egbuka, who I'm with Andy of.

55:20Andy Holloway:I really, really like Egbuka, especially at his ADP. How do you see Mike Evans, like how do you see the offense shaking out?

55:28Jason Moore:I think Mike Evans is the clear and inarguable number one for this team with Godwin starting late with Egbuka being a rookie. I mean, two years ago when Mike Evans was the wide receiver five in fantasy football he scored 14.3 fantasy points per game he scored more last year he scored 14.5 he was on pace for over 1200 yards I know he barely got to the thousand that's because he

55:51Mike Wright:missed three games isn't there a correlation to your criticism of Baker's outlier season though and expectations for Evans's points per game that's probably on the touchdown side so if you're

56:01Jason Moore:saying that you think the touchdowns will definitely be there for him then that doesn't correlate there. To me, Mike Evans is locked in as a top 15 wide receiver. Barring injury, I don't see how it doesn't happen. Baker is a good quarterback. This system is locked in. He knows his role. He's going to get his targets. Now, he's not a volume guy. He's not a PPR guy. If you're in a full PPR league, he takes a slight hit there versus a half PPR league. The consistency might not always be there. Even years ago, when you were calling, two years ago, that wide receiver five finish where he was a my guy for you you know the year prior he had a little bit more of a down year and it came very inconsistently so you know I don't look at where he's going in drafts and think that the price is too high he's wide receiver 18 right now in average draft position I personally think think he beats that and I will make a bet on that streak of a thousand yard seasons if you want to you want to put that on the board water bat okay sounds good so do you think he's lost a step like did you see something in film that made you believe the

57:14Mike Wright:beginning of the end is here when you catch 70 something passes a year and you add these other weapons that are just you know better ppr options i mean part of last year's resurgence was the absence of chris godwin yes it was for half of the year so um you know he's at that age too like you can't just keep doing what you're doing i think he's entering the larry fitzgerald late career arc and um if he happens to be at eight touchdowns with his volume i think you're going to be disappointed that's but we have a difference of opinion there sure uh jsn comes in at 13 talked about him extensively yesterday so if you want to hear the bull case of jsn uh or as some of you did just vehemently disagree with me on every front and share that with us you can that was on yesterday's ice and fire episode 23 years old the wide receiver 10 last year being drafted at the wide receiver 12 he's you know you talk about those second year guys mike where their adp is steamed up too high i don't i don't know if that's happening with jsn

58:16Andy Holloway:he's he's going as the 12th wide receiver off the board right but i mean at least in proportion to

58:22Mike Wright:where he finished it it's not outlandish like we're not we're not bucky irving this thing where we're like he's not the fifth guy to go up to five or four or something like that um i i just think that this is one of those situations you look at you can mirror it to um to new york if you want to the jets and you know there's jsn and everybody else and there's garrett wilson and everybody else i i think tory horton's going to end up being the wide receiver three there got a rookie at tight end got cooper cup on his last legs i just have the confidence that the volume is going to be there and and that's why i have him ranked at 10 overall you guys have them slightly lower but i think i don't think there's huge differences of opinion here no no

59:05Andy Holloway:i'm not completely out on jsn i just at that 304 you know wide receiver 12 i'd prefer a couple

59:14Mike Wright:other guys at 12 overall marvin harrison jr comes in at 12 his adp is wide receiver 16 so we're homers is the i think is the expected refrain to hear so we're slightly above adp on marvin harrison is this a palatable draft price for marvin harrison going into his sophomore year after a

59:38Jason Moore:an up and down rookie season yeah i i think this is you know he's being drafted as a mid-level wide receiver two and it's much better he's being drafted higher than he finished last year when he finishes the wide receiver 28 so you got to pay a little bit but if he has that breakout season you're still getting a steal um he put on a lot of weight in the offseason and it looks good how he's using it in camp lots of highlights of him dominating going up grabbing uh you know contested catches so uh does it happen we know that kyler can support a true wide receiver one we do when he's had it with DeAndre Hopkins.

1:00:16Jason Moore:The question is, will the Cardinals defense get better, their run game? Will they slow it down? Will they try to take the ball out of Kyler's hands a little bit more? The nice thing, you know, Marvin doesn't have a lot of target competition. You've got Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison and then a bunch of slubs. We're very consolidated.

1:00:35Andy Holloway:Hopefully, it's very Kansas City Chiefs where it's Tyreek and it's Travis Kelsey and you just don't have to worry about anybody else.

1:00:43Mike Wright:yeah that that's uh that's what you're banking on but it is a projection he was really inconsistent when he scored a touchdown last year awesome almost 17 fantasy points a game when he didn't score you didn't get ppr numbers you got five fantasy points a game and a lot of tears and losses for fantasy so and he was a player that really i think emotionally oh it was that's people

1:01:04Andy Holloway:it was brutal starting him because just when you thought you you were out you're like i'm gonna to find the difference path for my fantasy team then he'd have a spike week and you'd be your chips would go all the way back in and then he would just let you down over and over target share wise he was at 21 you know that's good for a rookie yeah so garrett wilson as a rookie was 22 aj brand was 20 cd lamb was at 19 so there if you want to know what it wasn't it wasn't as disappointing we've said this all offseason his year in totality of nearly 900 yards and eight receiving touchdowns is not a bad rookie year it's a bad rookie year for a player where the expectation was we i think he was going in the second he was drafted as that the one-two turn

1:01:53Jason Moore:he was like a first round or a second rounder depending on you know the which league you were

1:01:58Mike Wright:in the yeah you talk about target share i'm most concerned with the way they were using him and where those targets on the field were if you look at if you want to look at the film and you want to look at what marvin harrison struggled with 69 of his targets were 10 plus yards down the field you look at neighbors and brian thomas jr those were under 50 for both those guys they were you know lower lower probability lower probability targets that's why you see variance that's why you see 10 games of 4.7 fancy points a game when you don't score you do you need the layups mike you need the slant routes you need the outs and his to be honest that's where you can you can look at his performance and say that was not what you expected from a top five pick he wasn't physical enough he couldn't get off the line of scrimmage sometimes he couldn't win the 50 50 balls and he wasn't being used because he couldn't do that so he's that has to change yeah

1:02:51Jason Moore:and he's obvious he has changed his body to change that he has worked hard um this is not a guy resting on his laurels or his draft capital. His rookie season is so close to identical to DK Metcalf's rookie season. Near the same targets, near the same receptions, near the same yards, near the same receiving touchdowns, and near the same fantasy finish. The year two for DK Metcalf, he went from the wide receiver 32 to the wide receiver 7, and that was based on more downfield winning, more touchdowns. And if you look at a guy who could go into year two with, you know, touchdown prowess, getting double digits, that's that's in the range of outcomes for for Marv.

1:03:33T.

1:03:33Mike Wright:Higgins comes in at number 11. The last name we'll talk about today. I have him at 16. Jason at 11 on the dot, which is where he is here today. Mike at 12. ADP is wide receiver 14. And, you know, we've been around the block with T. Higgins several times. Right. We've had him. Mike has grabbed his hand and taken a stroll with T. Higgins season after season. There's a lot to like about T. Higgins. It's strange because he is also a player where the per game metrics, the per route metrics, all that stuff looks amazing. But when you just don't look at games, please. Yeah. When you get to the end of the year and the fantasy finish, we never get to say he's inside the top 15.

1:04:15Mike Wright:But maybe maybe that can change. You have the most efficient quarterback in football in Joe Burrow. You've got Jamar Chase soaking up coverage on the other side. I mean, this is the best tandem in football. It's just a little bit hairy in the middle of the third round just making that call, making that decision. There are other players to choose from, right? We're not sitting there where he's some super value. No. You're going to be taking him.

1:04:41Jason Moore:He's going right now Tyreek Hill or T. Higgins and Brees Hall. Oh, gosh.

1:04:46Mike Wright:I mean, those three, I'm going to take T. Higgins. Right. I think.

1:04:49Jason Moore:If you go deeper, you can also get Marvin Harrison, Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin.

1:04:57Mike Wright:Yeah.

1:04:58Jason Moore:So when I look at that, I think T.

1:04:59Mike Wright:Higgins. You cheated on that one because if you say Brees Hall's name around anybody, you know I'm not going to cheat. Yeah, that's some stank.

1:05:05Jason Moore:When I look at that, I'm fine with T. Higgins there. I've taken him in a lot of mock drafts. T. Higgins on a per-game basis was absolutely outstanding, even better last year than he had been in the past. his metrics next to uh jamar chase they're not that different 26 percent target share to 23 percent this is for last year yeah yeah for last year 25 percent targets per outrun to 24 percent uh yards per outrun 2.4 to 2.1 first read targets like where's joe burrow going pre-snap 34 to 30 it's like t higgins is he he's he's a one b is just one a is maybe the best wide receiver in the entire league is is is his historical points per game

1:05:52Mike Wright:valuable to you or is it 15 and a half last year because that was way above where he's been so his

1:05:58Jason Moore:so he missed five games that's the other part of the story so the historical uh points per game um this is so you have to make a lot of apologies yes you do if you go and you take out here if you and you take out the games where he started and and it was injured you know played two percent of the snaps which is super unfortunately not just one or two or three it's like it's happened like five times when you take those out you like the points per game are actually pretty darn good he's

1:06:27Mike Wright:always been right there well you don't get to take him out just behind no no no that's that's the decision because the five missed games don't include the games he played two percent of snaps

1:06:36Jason Moore:It's like we're talking about Kenneth Walker. And I find myself in on T. Higgins and out on Kenneth Walker, but it's the same argument. This is a very, very talented player. Now, when I stat him out and he comes to wide receiver 11, guess what? I've statted him for 17 games. Maybe that is absolute foolishness. Now, I do think if he plays 17 games, he's going to be a great fantasy asset. So the question is just, you know, is this a quote-unquote injury-prone player that you will not get that from? or based on his contract and he's paid to be out there. He gets his money on roster bonus checks.

1:07:10Andy Holloway:Does he get the check, the game day check, if he plays 2 % of snaps? Probably, yeah. Oh, that's not good. That's not good. That's not good. That's going to work against you, Cincinnati.

1:07:21Jason Moore:Come on. Meat Higgins needs to shine.

1:07:25Mike Wright:He needs to be out there. 12 games last year, 12 games the year before. That is the story. We need healthy meat. There are a handful of players you don't have to take if you don't want to take them. because you just don't want to go through that experience again. And that's totally fine. Yeah. He's not, like I said, he's not a super discount. This is not some place where like all that is being baked in because he had such a great points per game season and he's got such a great quarterback and a need to throw the football. You know, I think he came out and he's got a hundred catch target on the year and he's always been more of the Mike Evans, you know, his career high in receptions in a year is 74.

1:07:55Mike Wright:And he's done that like three times, 74, 74, 73. That's about where he normally ends up. Yeah. So imagine 17 games. impossible impossible he probably doesn't I if you ask T Higgins how many games are in a season I don't know if he knows the answer yeah I don't know if he could answer you with he'd be like I

1:08:12Jason Moore:have no idea 12 it is very common year after year after year for teams to have two top 24 wide receivers for teams to have two top 12 wide receivers like when you have a good offense and a great quarterback it is not uncommon for two wide receivers to be in the top 12 and that's kind of how I see if any offense could do that which is common it would be the the Cincinnati Bengals with bad defense and Joe Burrow all right tomorrow we're going to count down the top 10

1:08:37Mike Wright:fantasy wide receivers we've got a mock draft episode on the way as well we've got running back rankings to get into our top 10 tips and tricks and the my guys we'll lock those in we'll share them with you very very soon I think that's on the docket for next week check out the ultimate draft kit at ultimate draft kit.com I think Jason just found out that the my guys yeah it's next because you're not locked in on yours. Oh, man. Yeah. Next meet. Next meet. Okay. All right. Thank you for joining us today. Shout out to the Ducers minus Josh. And we'll catch you on tomorrow's episode. Goodbye. Give me that smelling salt.

1:09:15Mike Wright:Where's that smelling salt?

1:09:16Jason Moore:Josh has it. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

1:09:54Andy Holloway:the impossible. I got you. And get home. Part of the beast is an uplifting triumph. You're the greatest dog ever. Bread.

1:10:04Jason Moore:I'll get you home. Part of the beast. Now playing a PG-13. Maybe appropriate for children under 13. 5 a.m. I'm up with a crisp Celsius energy drink. Running 12 miles today. Grab a green juice, quick change, and head to work. Meetings, workshops. One more Celsius. No slowing down. Working late, but obviously still meeting the girls for a little dancing. Celsius. Live. Fit. Go. Grab a cold, refreshing Celsius at your local retailer or locate now at Celsius.com.