Avsnitt 556 - Flygande bud

0:00Just what is it that you want to do? We want to be free. We want to be free to do what we want to do. And we want to get loaded. And we want to have a good time. And that's what we're going to do. But wait baby, let's go! We're going to have a good time. We're going to have a party.

0:35It's very month out. How warm is your marketing? foreigner grunder does it aman? Both up and down it is quiet. Yes, it has been a full action It came a flash from ABC in the USA That it's a fred on the way Ukraine has gone on the US's laws here All this feels very luddic But the price of the price of the moment When we had Covid-19 When you just see how much time it is You don't really know why it's coming Now he's sitting and Släggs the mobile because he's so frustrated Over his post. Have you had a good day? Or a week? What can you say? It's been a good day and a week But it's been a lot For the week was very intense It was a video report And then it came a lot of other AI-news That we should talk about The market went down I became long What's it?

1:31You have to go around? You have to go around You have to go around It's something that is different Exactly You have to go around You have to go around All the day It's like it's been long. Yeah, exactly. It's a lot, as you mentioned, the freds - between Ukraine and Russia, and it happens over all. Today it's about Abu Dhabi, it's just been to Geneva, Zelensky on the way to Russia. It happens over all. And Europe will come in and give their take. Now they're also in the negotiations. They were in the smygsart of course, but now they were also with. And no one knows where this comes from from the beginning.

2:18No. We'll talk more about this. We had a little novo, came with two new things, some big and small. I had to talk about Sprint Bioccience, I came with a big deal, I was going to talk about a little bit about the small companies, what's happening there. Then we have the price of the price and the price of the price. Are you still there? No. The price has gone 25%. You can have to go away from the house to survive the winter. Five, six, Ben today, the whole day. Yeah. It's like a modern version of a vasque. You can put on a bastion in the way. Yeah, a little so. Then it's been action in crypto. And then we talk about Nvidia and Google.

3:01So it's full fresh. I think we'll take it on.

3:09We have with us our sponsor Robomarkets. There is still the foreign trade, especially in the USA. People have bought Open Door, Nvidia, Tesla. In Tyskland is Rheinmetall. It's a lot of foreign trade. It's also on the svensk börs. So you can also handle via Robomarkets. But it's very smooth. You can get a dollar, a euro, and handle via ISK. nhau volatility .

4:02The following week Rob Man kan ju trade dem. Till exempel idag när det var fredsrykten mellan Ukraine och Ryssland så finns det ju väldigt mycket att handla om. Ja, och det finns ju även ETF-er som har negativ exponering. Så tror man att en sektor har toppat ur eller liknande eller man vill ha någon hedge så går ju även det att få via väldigt bra ETF-er. Exakt. Och vill man öppna konto och man inte riktigt vet hur man gör så är det bara att kontakta Max och Simon på Stockholmskontoret. De sitter ju här och svarar väldigt snabbt. Precis, and then you should come to remember that Here it is a minimum of 7 ,5 points Alltså 0 ,075 % and no longer than a gift It can be a chance to trade very active So, thank you Robomarkets But remember, investing in your risk And it's not that you will get back your capital

4:58Let's start with Novo You've gone around and tjated the last 24 hours about you're the new sect leader for Novo. How are you? I'm good. I was a little long. We talked about it for the week also. I had taken a mind position. Around 300. And then came the Alzheimer's-news. Was it inför that you had taken position? I thought that if it was good, then it was low. All that has to do with Alzheimer's. All that has to do with Novos. All that has to do with Novos. But especially Alzheimer's research has been a ideal for the last 10 years So, it was not good The skillet was that it was not Alzheimer's preparatory They tried to do it with the semaglutid Yeah, with Alzheimer's They didn't have done it with Alzheimer's preparatory They thought that they...

5:47They saw it in pre-clean and patient that it has been very good for them Precis But so good did it not It could be if Alzheimer's is a life-stil-sukdom Which is certainly there It can be It's not what it's based on Allting is up for grabs there But it missed me at all And I thought that on the multiple When it's now So I didn't know that Alzheimer's was inprisated in the course So I didn't understand why it was 10 % as it was yesterday So I was long I was a little long before, but now it was a long time. And it feels good. I know that the landscape is so that the ones who are basing are at the value trap and earnings will continue to fall.

6:38Patent goes out and so on. Today comes a positive new thing. Angéance diabetes 2. And obesity or fetma-delen. Precis, och sen kommer pillerna och jag kan köpa Jury's out om det blir en value trap på det sättet att den ser billig ut men ödningsfaller och så fastnar man i en sådan spiral. Eller, andra alternativet är väl att de är så stora marknaden växer de mindre konkurrenterna ja, det är ju svårt att hålla, alltså Novo kanske om marknaden växer och det blir en volymbusiness har de råd att ta en smält på marginalen, men om de växer tillräckligt mycket så kommer örningsen ändå kunna vara intakta.

7:25Och jag tror ju någonstans att alla kommer äta det här förut senare. Man kan säga det här gap, krokodilgapet mot L.I. Lilly, de blev väl det första trillion dollar läkemedelsbolaget. Så de har ju bara rusat, de har ju en bred portfölj medan Novo har både blivit ifrånåkt, tycker marknaden då, och är alldeles för att fokusera på bara den här marknaden. Ja, och det har jag ju I mentioned it in the pod before, and I had a chance to do it in a year that they should spread their portfolio. As everyone who has found a cash cow has done before. It may be possible, but they have been doing it. I'm looking at it, but if you don't have it on 1100, then you have a trigger.

8:08Then you have to look at now. In the end of December, the price of 15 % will be in the index. Now it's a crash so much, so now it's a 10. so then it will come a call where it will be picked up from all indexes. Exactly. Up to 15 again. Exactly. It's a trigger. And then I've seen that there are some blanking in it. I'm sure you're going to bett on value trap but of all you can choose to blank on today's day's börs and it's a lot that's what's going on. All möjligt. So you can choose to be a short on what is it? PE12? Maybe it's PE25 when patent goes out. What was it on 1100? And then it's the same The average short That's right When they're short Because they trend It goes down Yeah, exactly And it's just It's just It's just Yeah, we'll see If a year, a half or a month Will I sit and bank On you're here But it's still It's just What was it On 700?

9:05On 800? No, no Then trended The new up Then it's not I'm not I'm not I'm not I'm not I'm not I'm not I'm not I'm not I'm not I'm not I'm not I'm not I'm not I'm a big part of the volume here, for example, I bone support, which I sit and I'm playing as a swing. It's all over the day. It's very interesting how it plays out there, for example. Are you ready with Novo? I'm long. Yeah, you're long. Great, we'll be able to follow up. I'm going to get my new ones around 12.20 every day, so I missed both the new and the new ones. I'm going to go to the new ones when I'm out and handle lunch. So now I'm going to sit on the desk at 12.20.

9:44I'm going to get your lunch. What do you think you're doing? Yeah, verkligen, uppenbarligen. Then we SprintBioScience, a company that has signed with a little market cap, signed with a lot of deals, not getting anything to the market cap when you look at the graph. Now they signed with a deal with Gilead, and it's a big company. They have 14 million dollars in upfront and they have paid for 400 million dollars. The price was up 100 % ago but the price was not over what the price was in direct. This is a lot of risk-reaches in the svensk biotech. It is a catastrophe. You don't have anything from these midstarts-reaches.

10:28You don't have any interest in what they have in the cash. I bought a little bit but it was like normal to buy it. ihop, men allmänt högrisk och småbolag är fortfarande helt frostkallt på den svenska börsen. Kommer du vända? Vad säger du där borta? Småbolagssentimentet? Ja, men i fred och i Ukraina, absolut. Då tror du att Jan Banan kommer ge sig in i småbolag? Jag tror att Europa får en boost. En fredspremie. Yeah, it'll be We'll see if We can hoppa till Freden, I had not so much to say I sprint more than that you absolutely Don't get paid for the risk It's cool for the owners who are in the 100 % But you don't get out Of the big deal of the The big deal of the big deal But if we take Freden Then it has a little bubble Under the week before When it started to be in the end and now comes a flash that you have to be able to understand I sold a lot of Saab on this one, it's just a little bit so it feels like the market is a little a little bit off all the way and the market is always a step ahead so Saab has come down 100 kronor on 1-2 weeks since the big JAS-up and

12:00it's something magic with the börsen The one knows exactly what's going to happen And why maybe Saab doesn't crash like much When he's coming down 100 kronor Because he's already coming down 100 kronor Yeah, exactly Or you think that this is a bad deal So that Ryssland can attack in the morning So now we need to double the power What we've been thinking before On a long way, no matter what we've been thinking We need to size up our power The thing that we don't want to go away Even if it's going to be a fred in Ukraine But before Saab has gone down on every so-called flash. Yeah, for that momentum, it's a short-sighted momentum that's going to be a bit.

12:39But it came a new thing that it has come to a 28-point-up. Now we're at 19 points. It was 19 points that were clear. But I think it's the difficult points that are left to come over. Yeah. And it Ordas just about where this This is from If it's Trump himself That's on the way On the way Or if it was a wish list from Ryssland Or where it comes from On one way I think it's pretty smart That no one knows where it comes from For then it's not much ego And all that All the people have to Samle around And then they can talk to For the week All the people have All the people have and all of them are working with the 28 points.

13:32It was a little bit. My reaction was that it was a bit of a surprise for the week when all of them were saying that it was a Putin's wish list. For what I followed was Zelenskys tweet where he was opening up for all forms of support to fred. It was a very different tone for him than before. And now all work with this proposal both the American, the Russians and Ukraine it's meeting everywhere Abu Dhabi, Geneva, Washington Europe is even now with that so that it's a deal that no one knows who has been out of all working now with it and it's a surprise for many. What are the winners? I bought a Finnair.

14:27That's why you can fly over both Ukraine and Ryssland. Which would be a game changer for many companies. Finnair is the most of the biggest strength. Yeah, they were the biggest in Asien. Exactly. Rockwall is a big win. Skanska drove on this. Many of the companies, Carlsberg, Nocane Renkarton, who had the big rysk business they have sold them so it's not super-tydly you've seen Kyiv that we talked about before Kyiv Star which has been a case under the year it was in 11-12 we sold some of the first week when the freds came in now it's in 14 so you can see that the market really gillar the raka bets you want to find a winnary on a fred yeah, you want to find a case I was watching the French Vinci, the infrastructure of the motorway, broar, all kinds of things.

15:28So things will be up in Ukraine if it's a fred. And Frankrike has always contacted and is long in the conversation. Yeah, it's a lot of so. Then I think that over the European industry has been high. It has been a lot of things. so it may not be seen if you look at index but if you look at BASF which is in the German Dax, so it doesn't have all been done as the other companies in Dax so it lags a lot of things but Finare think I was a skit cool case if you were doing an emission what was it, 2023? Flybolag all the way, Norwegian and many of these, are very strong so it has been a very strong period just to look at yourself, when you're not just just about jul and nyår, so it's just svinbyrt jämfört med för några år sedan att boka flyg och oljepriset står ju ändå relativt lågt.

16:22Och oljepriset tror man ju ska komma ner om det blir en fred. Den gick ju ner på den här flashen som kom nu i och med att det är svårt att tänka sig hur det blir men många spekulerar väl i att Ryssland vill släppa ut den ryska oljan till exempel. Ja, exakt. Och sen får man ju se vad det är för deal som ligger bakom allt det här. Är det att Ryssland får en deal så att Putin kan save face på hemmaplan. And the US will get Venezuela. He will get the freedom. Yes, exactly. But he will get Maduro. Which is a little under risk. The one has been before. If we talk about polymarket. There can be for example, on a Vapenvila.

17:07It went from 13 % to 20%. And then it was Vapenvila 2025. Precis, I bett on 13%. So it's not that there's anything there. I saw that you could bet on that Ukraine would accept the US's agreement before the Thursday. It went from 2 % to 20%. So there's a lot there. But it doesn't feel like it's not going to be anything out of it. And there is...

17:38Momentum that is now for a deal. All of these points will be done. And then all of them say that Ryssland has not gone with on anything before. But this momentum that is now is more momentum than what it has been once under this war. It's very much when he saw Putin, it's very much momentum. All of them are talking about something and then just dars out. And now we're back. But now it's so many kockers involved. It's over all. Erdogan was with also. Zelensky was snabbt there and talked to him. So this sticker out As a different moment than we had before That's why I just looked at That's why we're going to think That's why we're going to think That's why we're going to think that Sallocaten is higher for fred than what we've been before But many people Verify that it's just like when the war broke out This is over to the summer For it was over It was like how it had been before And now we've had it in four years So now we've got to see that something Ska change And it's because many people think very linear And like that, we try both parts on now If you want to draw a land-like It seems like they maxed Kriget, while they are in the Fredsgrina I saw it on the water On the oil infrastructure And so And Russia is on too So it looks like a lot of momentum In this effort To get to a deal Then if the deal is good or not That's it.

19:13That's it. That's it. Yes. And we just hope that it will be good. Yes. We are all right. We are all right. We are all right. We are all right. We are all right. We are all right. But the truth is not that. We are all right. We are all right. Do you have any other take on this? Or like index? We talked a little before. You think that the price goes up on a fred. I have become more of that it should be inprisated. or what we've gone up on it can go up on war I'm not sure I'm not sure just look at Polymarket it's 20 % chance to be fred so it's not like it's really in but I don't know I just want to react to that okay, I'm not sure I'm not sure then it's a lot of other things that's happening in the background AI should we come in on for the week's AI and then we're in a little bit in a season on the market which tends to be the positive side Yeah, we can hop to something that should be to be able to do with a fred that is the price of the price I've tried to read some of the details I've tried to read some of the reasons I have a lot of pressure in Forsmark and that it doesn't anything in Tyskland and we are quite cold but it seems like it has been very little in media for that the price is so high as they are between 4-5 kronor which is almost record-high but they wrote that it was up 8-10 kronor with all the expenses and skates in Skåne today but it's a super extreme day but vips, it was just that the Orrön took 25 % on 2-3 days so it seems to be the solklar elplay here you have got up the price the price is still around 4-5 kronor the price was probably up in 15-20 when it was as it was and it feels like all the world in the sector has gone very bad so but in Nibir we talked about about that if we have high price so people will look at and look at the effect of the and like but we have had high price every year in several years now in Norway we have been at 40 hours and still have Nibir gone right down in the area and I'm a little bit I'm a little bit It's like all so...

21:36Now I think I'm a linear I don't know what we talked about before but I don't know I don't know, I've clipped over the last time so I don't even know what to do No, do you want to say more about the price before I hopped on? No Then we have Crypto There has been a very nedgång, it's been a stabilised around 1981 It felt like we had the first The first, the first, the liquidation. And then the market has often a tendency to be down to 81 ,5 % or something like that. The market has a tendency to drag the market down to the spike. And now we're up to 87, 88%. It's like no one talks about crypto and bitcoin.

22:19No, but it's interesting that crypto first came out of the market for a few months. Or a month ago, maybe it's a little more. But it was the first tapp that you did from 120 or when it was near 120 when you did the big tapp that down. And then we've set that gold atvek from its top levels and then we've got the price from its top levels. So it's a little leading indicator on risk sentiment. Yeah, it's kind of logical that people take off the market there and that's a little for belated. and like that. So it verks be a good signal in the cold. And look at how crypto market would be able to move up here at 100 000 so it feels like risk is on the way back.

23:04Then it's a jull rally. Yes, then it's a jull rally. Now we're mid-winter-requil here. But I look absolutely at the crypto so that you might need to get in a little here. You want to understand what you want to do before. How do you think about it? Would you want to buy in a crash? or do you feel like it has gone up and it has gone up again? No, I will probably find it. Yeah, you are a catapult. Yeah, exactly. I have a little difficulty to be able to find it. When something is on the way to the end. So I have a little level to look at. And just in crypto you have to be a technical. There's not so much else to go on.

23:51And many have talked about strategy. with Sailor why don't he buy now and when will he be overblown and so why don't he buy it because the acties are not to be able to buy or to premium and one thing and one thing that has gone around I can't really say it here it was that but no but no no, no, no it was that MCI and all the other index leverancts would take out strategy and all the other companies that have been able to buy crypto for that it didn't have a company with an company with an company, if I talk about it right. Then you don't have a company. Then you don't have a ETF. And that's not the index-sumption.

24:33So it was a risk that now in January that Strategy and all these crypto-comers would be excluded. And it was like that. This came back the day when the market crash was. Conspirationsteoretiker have found here. That it was that it was that it was that the crypto crash. Tveksamt. Här har någon suttit och rökt en pipa. Ja, jag vet inte. Men det kommer alltid upp sånt där i efterhand för att förklara någonting. Jag tror att det var mycket leverage bara. Som behövde rensas ut.

25:08Och när vi själva tittar på att få exponering, då gör vi det via vår samarbetspartner Virtune. Då har de ju till exempel deras Virtune Bitcoin Prime. 100 % svensk reglerad, fysiskt backad Bitcoin ETP with the low price of 0 ,25%. It's just one of their very many products. The product can you buy on its ISK via Avanza, Nordnet, Saver, Montrose with more than you can buy. It's just about to go in on your own. Yes, and with this product can you even spend months on Bitcoin. It's very easy and easy to use via Nordnet. It's cottage-free and it happens automatically, just like in a fund, but with direct Bitcoin-exponering.

25:48And then have Vertune a lot of other things to give to. They're giving 20 of them, and then they're giving them to the ETFs for the ones who want to diversify their crypto-exponering. And then there are different indexes and then they have the entire crypto-signed. Yes, exactly. And now that it's been a lot of crypto-signed are many of these altcoins that are more than they are. You can see some favorites there. Man kan verkligen titta på för att de har rört sig väldigt olika nu. Har man varit intresserad av någon då är det väldigt stor chans att de här lite mindre coinsen som Virtue nerbjuder, de har kommit ner mycket mer om man nu gillar det.

26:28Eller så kanske man bara vill snitta in sig i Bitcoin som är nere runt 86 000 när vi spelar in. Precis. Alla de här är 100 % fysiskt backade. De är svenskt reglerade och de är enkla att äga via ISK. And then we have the stablecoin index, ETP, and it's the last one. And it's really interesting because it's been on different crypto-shows, but the common name is that many stablecoins are based on these crypto-shows. I'm going to have a clone of the stablecoin, so it's like it's a company that's anammated technique. And then you can get exponents of crypto-shows that are going to be in the crypto-shows.

27:13and then it's called Virtune Stable Coin Index ETP. And then you can also handle very easily via your ISK as rest of your products. Exactly, and then re-rebalances kvartals. Precis, so spana in Virtunes crypto-products. Stort tack!

27:35If we go to the big one, it's Nvidia. I sat and the one came here after we played in the last week. The report was better. I was here and asked what can be better. Nothing will happen. The action was up 6%. That was a fantastic report. I went home to lunch. The price was up 2 % in my own way. When you go in on the evening, the price was down 4 % in the US. And Nvidia was up minus. S &P gick 200 points right away from high. It's not every day. No, it's not so often. What was it that was that was out of this? First it was Nvidia's report that the price was up. There I am with It's just when I was wondering what happened Then I was wondering It was just Markdown Fetfest And in media Was there any comment Or what No but Framförallt so was it The Google Gemini Yeah The new That came And then people started to look at other things And Google Gemini This was I saw in the aftermath But that Gemini Their new AI agent Or model Version of Gemini.

28:42Den drives då på Googles egna chip. Google har ju alltid använt i viss proportion sina egna chip. Men den här var ju väldigt stor utsträckning. Några har jag läst var att den helt går på Nvidias eller Googles egna chip. Och det blir ju lite en... Då blir det inte samma story kring Nvidia längre. Monopolet. Det kan ju bli frågats. It's a dream. It's a synd that Google is a big company. It's a deep seek moment at 2.0. It's a dream for a company to say that you can concur with Nvidia on chip. Yes, and for you who don't remember it, in the beginning of this year came it a deep seek, which is a Chinese open source AI-model.

29:25It says that it has trained on a much, much, much, much, with mindre kraft and it didn't needed Nvidia chip. and this will be a form of maybe the same story for Nvidia for Google is it fantastic for Google Buffett it was for 8 months the most hate the most out no one would Google it was just chat-GPT and now 8 months the most recent is it the most the most on the market can say and now I was going to look up 6 % They're up to 6 % on Friday, all are going in. Meta, I've been talking with Google about to use chipmunk. And Nvidia has a monopoly on the space. It's not good for Nvidia's story. It goes around with a lot of clips with the ground.

30:21Now we've forgotten the new version of Gemini that's better than Chuck EBT's last version. So it's two of them here on Teppan which was not been able to do it. Nvidia has not been able to do it by Google. It is a konkurrent. It is a hole that if you want to build an LLM you have to have Nvidia-chip. It is not a lot more. It is one of the few companies that Nvidia has not been able to do it. They and Google have not so much business. I may not miss anything. No, absolutely not on that. Google has its own ecosystem. They have their own chip. They have their own model etc. All the other are insults with each other.

31:08They have orders on each other. In the center of Nvidia and also OpenAI, which doesn't have to pay for the orders they have taken. Here it has gone around a lot of clips that I've seen with Sergey Brin in one of these two. Google-grounds. Google-grounds. They are not VD anymore. But the video and they were trying to show you that it was a question and that the company had gone completely wrong, become a big company and now they had been holding it and grinded it for a year to do it. He came back to the end and became operative for a while. And it was a result. Then there is a cool curiosity that is also a lot of money because of the other, the video, has got the money.

31:50But OpenAI, for example, is just based on investing and so on. because they don't pay much or they don't pay much but they don't pay much money they don't pay much money all the time and it's a different situation to be in than what Google is they finance everything themselves they have the world's best cash flow and they have the best cash flow and for the skoes they are also the world's most they are the most most of the time in the world their researches in the world what do you think? no it's no no one can say about it They've come two times with quant chips and have changed what we think that quant klared out.

32:34In 2019, they came with Succimore. I'm talking about it. And then they came with Willow-chippet which also showed how the teorins work with quant chips. This is a little bit of a skill in muscles jämfört med det andra ekosystemet som består av Oracle, AMD, OpenAI, Nvidia och sånt. Och nu idag, eller om det var igår, kom ju Antropic tror jag var med deras cursor eller vad den heter. Som skulle varit helt fantastisk. Ännu bättre. Och där äger Google 15 % av Antropic. Så där är de med. Så nu är de med. De är i alla fall med på två av vinnarna den här veckan. And now I just need to buy Google But it has already gone 100 % Absolutely But if you look at multiple And all of that They're using data It's a defensive AI play If you're investing with other things And so you can see it It's a little bit That Softbank Solde their Nvidia for opening AI Warren Buffett and he had bought it on Google.