Avsnitt 561 - Frågespecial

0:00Just what is it that you want to do? We want to be free. We want to be free to do what we want to do. And we want to get loaded. And we want to have a good time. And that's what we're going to do. But wait baby, let's go! We're going to have a good time. We're going to have a party.

0:29Yes, we're going to do a question of Failure Kill-podden. We've got very exciting questions here, both high and low. How many long-wolf are you? It's not a long time I've been. Who would win a long-wolf of you? I think I think I don't know I'm not a bank I'm not a bank I'm not a 100 Who would win a milen? You You win a milen on the bank Instead

1:07And then we'll go to a slag for our sponsor Cyber and there will we of course lift up their data and we can see data on the market. It has been a very cheap data that has been and with Saver we will get it gratis. So it is very good. We also want to lift up that the market is round and you can get a very diversified portfolio with all their markets that you can get. It's a whole lot of markets and you can build a very diversified and good portfolio which is located in all the various different ways. Not completely our model portfolio that we have built with them. We also want to make a slag for their AI-funktioner.

1:59For example, AI that includes new features of your own, so that you get a new flow that is not it's not a double-out, it's a scratch for you and then it's completely easier to take information and you don't risk to miss anything in the brus of the annals that can come in the new flow. And then we'll start a slag for the ETF-shandles of course. With the ETF can you build up a portfolio and get an exposure to several sectors It's a very easy and easy to open a konto, a ISK, and then you can buy it. And in many ETFs are it a gratis cottage that we buy. And it can be done well with 2026. Many of them have a new life to open and start a portfolio.

2:48And this takes us in on our model-portfolio that we have had under the year. We have, one time in the quarter, almost viktated on. little then and then. This is a so-called all-weather portfolio that we have built at Saver. The price has been around 6 % in the year. It may not be so much when you look at other indexes. But what you can remember here is that we have just been antingen as most invest in the year. We have had 20 % cash and have been 80 % invest in the year. A whole lot of rent. It was less good. We had a little gold-exponering that has been very much. We had 40 % cash when we started the year.

3:34Then came the Liberation Day with Trump etc. We took up the market and the mined rental part. We took in Euro stocks in the portfolio for Europe. We took down the September again to 40 % cash. And then here in December tweeted out that we have taken in Bitcoin Prime from our other sponsor, Bruteune. And then we have been down to 37 ,5 % cash. And cash-shed is what we have in the Scandia kort-träntefond. So very much cash and exponering and all that is possible. Räntor, råvaror, aktieindex. And now a little crypto also. So 6 % will you be happy with it. It has blown on in the year. Volatility in the portfolio has not been so big, which is the tank with the all-fathers portfolio that you can have under long time.

4:29It is the tank with the model portfolio. And we will continue with the portfolio. Tanken is that you can follow the portfolio. The portfolio will generate a good risk-justing. And when we think that it is billigare, that some areas are billig, so we will increase. And when we think that much is dyrt, we will have more cash. And we have 37 ,5 % cash now. And it's quite a lot, can I say. But, thank you to Saver and a good year. We wish them. And a fantastic new year's list is to start a month. They have even a good month. Which is also a good function if you have a child. Or you have to do it for yourself.

5:10Or you have thought about it long, but the price has gone up. So it's a month or a quarter of a good strategy to start to come in. So you might miss a top. You might miss a bottom. But you might get a better price on how you've come in on the market. So it's a good start. So thank you for Saver. But come back, investering in your risk is not sure that you'll get back your investerings kapital.

5:42We're going to start with a question Yeah What do you think we are in credit How positional is Råden miljö Stor question Yeah I think We are We near the end of the beginning if we say so we are still in a total small small business here in Sweden and it's full in the USA so it's a little low I think it's pockets of HS it's very tematical it comes many small bubbles we had a quantable in the year and then we had them AI was HS and then on the end of the year it was a very small The Råvaler has been strong since the year. But what we are in the credit cycle is quite a bit late. You should be with and dance so long music plays.

6:47But if you think you're sent in the cycle, then you should be ready to dance the next beginning? Yes, but how you position yourself, what you see after is when the rentemarknader from when something says stop for even so long so trycker we USA has been doing big underscores Trump and them want to to get out of the money they want to run it hot as they say on English and then you can play with it but it will be more and more volatile and you should still hold a lot of cash and then you should be prepared that it can be it can be so that it's inflation that's the solution that's the skulds. And not the big that it's the big bomb that's going to smell out of here.

7:41Exactly, and then we have austerity 10 years. Alla Grekland. It's a different alternative and it's that you can inflate the skulds and inflate the skulds. And then it's not good to have to the end of the day. Then you get from it. But then the raw market is a good compliment. It's probably what we see. It's a case with the raw market that I think that you can be exponered against. I try to get it even though I have to buy it so much as I've done. The raw market is It's always a big dip. We saw gold at doing a big dip here in the summer. It's a summer to come in and not buy a ball. What's happening at the end of every cycle?

8:37It's a jävla fest, or? Yeah, blow off top. It's Howard Minsky. It's a big deal. You start to loan to finance loans.

8:53private credit goes up to the top so private people will be able to lose so you can see it in many lead and scams will be able to lose a little bit where we are not just now in Sweden not yet no it is not someone asked what we have for top-inhab I longväskan Eller contenta på den frågan som han ställer Den är väl ju Mycket cash och hard asset Och inte vad alla andra är För det kan bli trångt ut Yes Kassaflöden och tillgångar Tänk om man på råvarubolagen så ska det finnas Mycket tillgångar på landsräkningen Och kanske inte fullt så belånade Kul start Sen nämn några Topp innehav i longväskan I have mentioned before that I have Camby as one of my biggest fans.

9:52Many have been a long time. I have been a big fan from the beginning of this year. I have had a little bit of a year ago. I have been on the last report when it opened. It feels like people miss the whole scalability here. They have had a deal flow for one time. They have got a fast cost. costnader, kört in lite AI där, ner med kostnaderna, upp med intäkterna och det mesta går ner på sista raden plus fotbolls-VM. Så det känns som att när alla har gett upp, då ska jag kamma hem storvinsten i i Kambi. Jag är också lång Kambi men du hade bättre timing än jag jag har ju kört i den mycket där länge.

10:37Så jag gillar din analys. Jag har inget att tillägga. Nej, något annat. Något annat I think that it's very spain It's coming year with SpaceX It's better to buy now With SpaceX-notering You have The policy That's what we all know That it will go well And we saw that the state Was with the emission And the European They say that they want to In the fall they will pay very much money That they will have a alternative to SpaceX. So I think that it's very interesting if we take a meme sector I'm going to I'm going to, if you like oil, I'm going to Shamaran. It's a high risk in Kurdistan. The company deals thereafter.

11:30When they've finally solved the pipeline - so I'm going to try to put it on a year. I'll see if they'll pay off their skuld, start with a purchase or or to buy a company and it is a Lundin company. So it has I as my oil expo. The half is in the way that oil is going to 30 % and the half is in the way that it will be a after-fråge-chock or that you have to buy it for a little. So I don't know anything about oil prices, but I have it as an oil-innovation. I'm a long-occidental oil in the USA Warren Buffett It's not a success No, not yet I know how many say That oil prices are going to 30 Then it will go well And then it will go well It's so I see it But I think that oil companies Are In the raw market So they haven't gone with the rest of the raw market And I think On the supply Issue Yeah, then I have I've mentioned before I have Snapchat.

12:40The report has come with a fine. Then it's almost gone down the way. I'm going to put my spec there. It feels like if they have one or two reports that are good to, then you should have a double. Hitties has everything just gone out in the option to lead and stock-based compensation with what they actually deliver in the use of the tool. So, I'll let you have to go back. I'll see how it plays out. inför året? Jag har ju också lång Snapchat. Det blev vi tillsammans. Jag köpte innan rapporten. Det spelar ingen roll. Den kom ner hela vägen sen igen. Exakt. Nej men på samma tema. Har du något annat innehav du vill nämna?

13:19Jag ska välja någonting som jag tycker är kul att köpa här. Inte saker jag köpte för länge sen som folk ska hoppa in här är kanske inte lika kul. Men Finna är på en vapenbila eller fred i Ukraina. Tycker jag är intressant. Jag är lång den. Yeah, but exactly. I don't have the right now, but the game has played back to the year. The key of the star. There are people a bit of a bit of trudge. If you notice that it will come a meeting, then you have a day on it. I think Finnair is almost even longer. The game is really tired, but if it gets off, it's very good for Finnair. They were in trouble to put down all these lines to Thailand and Asia.

14:02I'm going to go to a few and often if I have a FBA-bisced or an emission or something and then I take a bigger bet and then I let it go in three months or something and then you get it out of the way so I don't have much more to give up just now would you give up on more? For 2026 it will come the first study on Abcelleras own preparatory so it's a little interesting for you who have legated 18 years it's been 18 years then which trade has been your most lyrical loss and what took you from it I can take two of them I took around 2011-2012 so I ate a uranium company CapEx Ventures which would be and then I don't have stop in these companies that doesn't have good economy and hold on with a gruvbord.

15:03Then it's no one that's the goal. It's very easy to think let it go. It doesn't get good. When it doesn't play out as you think of a company that doesn't have control on the cash then you need to think about you can buy in the next emission or something like that. There you lose almost 99%. So it was a very good idea. Then I have EG7, which was a good idea. They bought it on paper. And there was a way to learn to be a good way to be. It doesn't matter if it's a good idea or what they do. If it doesn't exist any institutions, no one trusts, all of them think they'll be able to get the value. Then they'll never get the value.

15:50Now, the company with a new state, new owners, have been able to stay in for a change. But it was a very good loss to look at that something is a billy for the price. You can't forget that it's the best solution. Often it's a billy for a reason and that I learned it. I'm not sure. I'm not sure. For many years ago, I was a part of Starbris H. And it went very well from 4 spain up over 20 spain. And then it went very bad down. And that was a Lexi Dels a form of massy cost Dels also how much a company can ljuga Som Grundan och PD And he did And he himself became outburen So he lived in his own Yeah and it's a little And just that's why He thought about it himself And became outburen on BOR And it's a little Man can't have for much Tollit on the market when you listen to VDR and so now it's been a long time but for the people who listen if you're a little younger or not holding on so much you don't want to understand how much dels how a salesman actually can be and like denial and delusional or that it actually is a boomfonger it might be really hard to say but all they are going to get a loan and they should do a certain thing.

17:24And it's to get the actual to go up. I have learned that it doesn't matter that someone scammer you. It can be that they are completely incompetent. Delusional, that's what I mean. And there are some that are there and some that have a different syfte. But many are just delusional. And so they are all for many I say internt Yeah So I think You have the psychological aspect When you look at the lead And in many companies where the intake or the cash flow Is Framförall the lonesome Is that the problem Take exploration Råvarubolag, which you were talking about They are just They are just selling a story They are predikanter, that's what they are Missionaries, for a few people And before you know that something is happening, then it's like then it's like, now it's going to be a night we're going to be a thing Intelligo was probably a so so man doesn't have any over-to and this year it's been a little bit so that it's been a few of those on the top of mind just now but it's not a excuse to say that I'm going to say what they said to 100 % so you always have a percent that it's a chance that it's not a chance that it's not a snack yes, really and that I think that many people might have a lot of that have with them in the back of the head then you can't you can't be for a reason on the basis of it and be really cynic but how you solve it is that you can take a lot of vinces Man kanske säljer, man plockar hem lite och inte all in Och lite tänka Vad hade jag gjort nu?

19:23Om jag inte hade aktien, hade jag velat köpa eller sälja? Ja, exakt Men också risk management Vi har nämnt det i podden några gånger Ibland om något har dubblats för mig så säljer jag hälften Eller ibland inte hälften, tredjedel kanske Men man plockar hem För att det finns alltid en sannolikhet En chans att Det händer saker som man inte alls har koll på and that you actually could not have a look at. And that you have to do it. And the end thing to do it is that you don't want to be too for a look at. And a continuation on the end of the question. How do you handle the snegung? And in the case that I'm taking as long-in-having I'm very worried.

20:02For then it's like, yeah, it's going to be good. Medan if you take a swing, I bought Mildef here and it went bad. I'm very bad at that. You just want to stop when you're a bad person. You don't want to buy more.

20:22Intradahandel is okay with a snowpack. It's easier to get into a day with something when you go long. Then it's easier to keep it until the day after. Annars you need to take up an axelon. It's very stress. But I would say that On long-in-hav funks okay Intraday funks okay And on these How do you do? You take it through them? I try to figure out Are it I or the market that has failed? Should I sell? What is it that happens? Why does it go down? I noticed that I bought Camuros On a new one when they signed it For a week later and then he goes down and says I've got to hold it the day after and then he goes down 7 % on a new one and then he says I don't want to see it anymore and now when I look at it two days later so he goes back and says so it's the bad thing when you just don't want to see it anymore it wasn't as I had imagined and then you just hopped on it how do you do it?

21:28Mr. Life of Snegunga I don't know I'm not sure that it's my edge that I'm good at playing it I also delar up it in different affairs as you mentioned it's a long-innehage where you have a test and something that will play out and the course is going to be in between but we're not in the near future of what I'm waiting for and what I'm waiting for then I'm not I'm not really worried and is it a short-sighted trade where I can't have the same analysis or it was more a timing or a flöde that was a short-sighted flöde. I thought that this will come and then you'll be able to do it. Then you'll be able to do it.

22:15Are you going to get a little bit of a index or an act? Index. It can be a inflow and it's fast. In index can be a total fell because it's a little bit. You can work with index on a different way. Allting handlar ju om att man får inte stretcha sig för långt Så att man har för mycket size Så att man inte kan öka I index kan du ju Du fixar ditt gav Du kan snitta det Och där är väl lite skillnaden att många säger att man ska aldrig snitta ner sig I en först affär Men i index är det inte riktigt samma sak Du får inte ner 30 % på en dag Nej Eller det har ju hänt för längre sedan Och det kanske kan hända igen Men Men ta true caller snitta, snitta, snitta och så får du ner 30 % tre gånger på sex månader.

23:07Det går ju inte i det fallet att göra det. Då får du snitta ännu mer. Ja, men då handlar det om vilken size gör du, för du får inte snitta så att du sitter där och är en alldeles för stor del av din portföl. Så i index kan man jobba med det på ett annat sätt och du kan alltid lägga, det finns en optionsben du kan lägga på för att hedgeha dig till exempel. Du kan köpa en stopp på dina terminer. You can take stop. You can take stop. But it's more... If you're talking about termination and what, so it's more a handwork than that you're like... Oh no, the models have become a lot of Google. It's not to zero.

23:47It's not a whole thing. It's a whole different world. That's what I'm saying. Or it's not a whole thing. It's not a whole thing. And in the actual... Man får ju bara utvärdera Det finns nog inga strategier Jag vet att alla vill ha Man vill ha en enkel strategi som funkar I alla case och det är inte så Alla bolag är unika Jag kan fortsätta frågan Nästa fråga är vilken strategi jag har Gällande stop loss och take profit Du sa väl lite take profit Om man motförmodan hittar något som går 100 % Ta hem lite vinst Jag kör aldrig med någonting Går den under här så ska jag stoppa or like. It had been a good strategy in some of the most of the most of the most of the most of the most of the most.

24:33I think that it's difficult to come in again if I need to stop myself. I can see if I sit and handle termines that I'm very bad at. If I stop on three points. It's very easy to do three such affairs the first two hours. But it's not a idea to stop if I'm only in two minutes I should go back back again. I understand what I mean. No. If I don't buy a low price then, it's not a good thing. Jo, I understand it

25:01I have no stop on it On that way Stopping is when I see I can say on the front If it happens here But if it happens to a event Or something Then I can say Now I'm going to go over But if it happens Just on the price Or that a lot of other Who play a svart repetit Try to do it at that I should kissa with me and take stop. It didn't happen. I used to example X-Ray that I will talk about in the other series of episodes. But then came a negative and then I realized that it could be a good thing to go on. But it's a different thing. Then you can go on. It's so with Circles Science. There were all of them in an effect.

25:47And then it was 30 % less than what you got a week later. Exactly. Exactly. But especially that it's not stopping. Stopping should never be a decision. No. You must look at it. If you feel that you are in an affair and you don't want to be in it. I think that many people just get up. I just want to go out of this and sell it. Instead of saying, how do I come out of this on the best way? In a fast way, reptile, I don't want to get out of this. lite så kom det, tyckte jag, en rolig fråga vad har ni för karriärstips om man ska fokusera på att maximera sin lön? Och den personen fick sen en sub-kommentar som var du frågar två arbetslösa pajasar.

26:31Hur tänkte du? Det kan inte vi. Nej, vi är väl dåliga på att göra karriär. Jag får far med att man ska i alla fall ha någon form av lust med det man arbetar med. Då tror jag man kommer få bättre betalt. Jag har jobbat inom investment banking och liknande och märkte folk som inte alls var taggade. Då should you hold a big presentation and then you can have a script all of you have not been with sinnet and glädjen it's very much up for the back and that I think that's what I think I'm also it's just that it's a lot that you think is cool and you're glad when you do it but you're not really good at it it's not that you're good at it and hopefully you think that it's cool yeah but it's not like a good If you want to go to Grönland, but often it's a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit.

27:25And then if you don't feel that you're not good at anything, then I think you don't have just found your own thing. And then you can try to try to get your own things. Try to get your own career. If you're young, you start with a job and then you take the next and then you start to get your own feeling of what you think is a bit of a bit. Oftest for that you're good at it. But I don't think about it. Play your strength. Spela det du är bra på Försök inte jobba på det du faktiskt Kanske är dålig på För du kanske som bäst blir en medelmåttad på det då Och jag får ju för mig att Försök fokusera på det du är bra på Det är för både kort och långt För att liksom slå upp lönekalendern Och se att här känner man bäst Det är det jag ska hålla på med Ja, sen tror jag att det är en åldersfråga också Jag tror att du är Nu i 20 ska du bara skaffa dig så mycket Alltså i 20 -årsåldern ska du bara skaffa dig så mycket erfarenheter du kan I think it's so much money It's cool But especially so much experience And then You can end up In some places But especially as you said You must think it's cool And you can feel that you're good Next question What's your question?

28:36It's a question for you Varken du or you have a loan The last 15 years Two arbetslösa pajas What do you do without a t-shirt when it comes to the market? I would say Twitter, that's my biggest input And then MFN, and the same as I'm going to put all the press releases I would also say Twitter or X It's a information-flöde-summanhang Inspiration, it's a lot of cases You can invest in the whole world and to go to the takes and to go to the fly and the fly and it's a story and it's a story and it's a geopolitical thing all the way it is, there is no better way to... For before a journalist has validated that this is the real thing so it has something already done to go to the right so sometimes you just want to go and then you think if it's true then it's going to go and it's going to go and it's going to go so I'm going to go with it so I'm going to go to the right now so it's really important Yes.

29:41If you got 500 000 and started trading with, what do you do? I would not have to get 500 000 first to trade. I would have to get a front or another trading terminal. I would have to set myself for four weeks and go one week with different strategies. If you want to do TA, I would have to test a week with TA. If you want to do new things, I would have to test a week with new things. then if you want to be Mudwater then you can find Blanca Case and it's a little 10 ,000 hours and things take a little longer time so to try a day or a week it's just for short it can be a bad market, it can be a one it can be a other it takes time to find what you think or what you think is but I think you really should think about a little bit of a poker game that you should find your niche and focus on it than to go on 100 ball Yeah, focus on one thing and try to learn and then you can add things to it but also if you just come over 500 000 and say now I'm going to trade I think you should read it a little before One Good Trade is a great book for how you define a good trade and if you have 500 000 you can say you can live on it on the whole time then you can't be really long-signed You can't let you in 500 000 and then hope to...

31:02You can't let 400 in and say that you're going to trade on 100. It's tough if you want to take your cost. So, short-siktig swing-handel and have some defined setups or affaires or niche or a sector you're going to do. Then I have a question to you and it's why you're one of få människor jag känner som sitter och handtrader på makro? Alla andra 20TA och nyheter och olika grejer. Du är en av få som sitter och snackar amerikansk statistik och olika grejer. Vem har du lärt dig av? Eller vad är denna subkultur? Jag tror att det är för att jag började med derivathandel och indexterminer och sånt. Så man följer det mycket då.

31:53Ju mer du går upp i bolagen så påverkar det mer. I alla fall kortsiktigt inte alldeles. I think you should draw a cool thing to do. Ju higher up you come to the trading hierarchy, the more macro you're dealing with. It's a lot of hedge funds. To the end of the global macro. It's you and Bridgewater. But I think... So then it became natural. So clearly. And many of the big companies were just... When you started trading, there was no AIHs or it was not the small bubble and memes and so on but then it was more Atlas and them were doing how the statistics and the economy and etc. And you do with others?

32:43Are you having someone to do with your macro - Yeah, absolutely. It has I. And you have people on Twitter that you can do with and so on. Kompisar you have been on Twitter both out and out and out of the house but it's my answer on the question yes but sometimes it plays macro no role and sometimes it plays all role for example 2022 it plays no role what tech-based company comes for a new then it was Gellens CTP-report or what it was then take my raw-take I've worked in that raw-take that's going to go well the whole thing is the whole thing the whole thing the whole thing is the whole thing and rotation take in more hard asset and value That's why it's been pretty good And then you go down and then you try to find a case in it depending on how much risk you want to have in the world Yes, and then we the last question a little frantidspanning if I'm tolking it right why don't you start to look at long in the next big horse Alltså någon Humina Robotar ETF-fond Is it something you think about?

33:59What? Humanida Robotar Absolutely It's like the price has become a very temacy We have no humanoid robot company on the svensk market What I know about it Exagon has actually a robot Exactly So it would be If they were a company Then they would have a company that levered ABB is probably going to sell to someone but they sold their robot but it's still a lot of people but it's still a lot of people it's still a lot of people in the future but it's like it's like you're looking after the next it's been a power it's been a power it's been auran it's been a kvant so it's going to come so many trends and there are humanoid robots and Mr.